Monday, June 25, 2012

flirting with moisture... (pm.25.jun.12)>

It is partly cloudy this evening... temperatures are relatively mild, but humidity is hovering in the range of 50-55%.  My high temp on Tushita Road just below the Regional Mountaineering Center was only 79.5F (26.4C), but those moderate humidity levels made it feel warmer than that when the sun was shining between periods of cloudiness.  There were some random sprinkles during the early afternoon (around 1:00pm), but no measurable rainfall in my gauge.

Low-level moisture extends along the front ranges of the mountains from Nepal, northwestward into Himachal Pradesh.  This, combined with a light west-northwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere is keeping our atmosphere moderately unstable, and susceptible to occasional development of showers and thundershowers.  It looks like the peak of moisture availability in the air mass will occur between tonight and Wednesday night, so that should be the best window for at least a couple of significant downpours of rain.  Our June total now stands at 3.27" (8.3cm) -- well below normal -- but we'll likely add to that during the next couple of days.

Interestingly, computer models continue to point toward a retreat of this pre-monsoon moisture and instability starting on Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.  It is highly unusual to be anticipating a drying and warming trend during this time of year... but that's the kind of summer it has been!

MONDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  good chance of a round of showers and thunder overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY:
more humid, with a mix of clouds and some sun.  good chance of a couple of showers and thundershowers in the area.
high: 26C (79F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy and muggy.  a period or two of rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY:
humid, with clouds and occasional sunny breaks.  still a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 26C (78F)

THURSDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  chance of a thundershower, mainly in the PM.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 26C (79F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  not as humid, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
morning low: 21C (70F)
daytime high: 27C (81F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun and a few clouds.  unseasonably warm.
morning low: 22C (72F)
daytime high: 28C (83F)