the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

the april/may transition... (am.30.apr.11)>

i'm recording my warmest early morning temperature of the year... 68.9F (20.5C), with clear skies, some light haze, and a pleasant breeze just before sunrise.

we'll start off with lots of sunshine again this morning, as has been the case for the past 10 days in a row... but expect the clouds to build up over the mountains again towards the noon hour.  the mountain instability factor (pockets of colder air above increasingly warm air at the surface) will keep the mention of an afternoon thundershower in the forecast today, and for the next several days, actually.  this is fairly typical for this time of year... random thundershowers can occur over the mountains, occasionally drifting down into our neighborhood on just about any given afternoon.  not a dramatic issue, as long as you're aware of it and ready to run for cover if necessary.

yesterday was the warmest day of the year... and it looks like we could add another couple of degrees in the coming few days.  there are indications that the warming trend of the past week and a half will continue steadily into the middle of next week...

SATURDAY: morning sunshine, with skies becoming partly cloudy by noon.  warm... with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: an evening shower or thundershower in the vicinity??  otherwise becoming clear and mild overnight.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... still that risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with a chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  only a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny... summertime temps.
high: 29C (85F)

Friday, April 29, 2011

downright nice... (pm.29.apr.11)>

an incredibly pleasant evening in progress... with partly cloudy skies and temperatures slowly cooling down from an afternoon high of 82.2F (27.9C).  that's the warmest temp (by a hair) of 2011!  there was a small cluster of thundershowers which developed over the dhaualadar range early this afternoon, but the winds aloft carried them eastward, away from us, as they fizzled out around 3:30pm.

there are no major changes expected in our general weather pattern for the next several days.  we'll continue to see the typical late spring - early summer mix of sunshine, haze, occasional clouds, and at least a small chance of afternoon and evening thundershowers... along with pleasantly warm temperatures.  small disturbances and pools of colder air in the upper atmosphere are notoriously difficult to specifically track down and time... but be aware that a sudden thundershower can occur on any given afternoon, in the midst of an otherwise near-perfect day.  moisture is severely limited though, so any rainfall amounts should be very light.

all of the computer models continue to call for temperatures to keep climbing... and even with mountain-effects, i think we will remain at least a degree or two above normal as we move into the month of may...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with only a slight chance of a thundershower.  pleasantly mild.
low: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies... with an isolated afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, haze and a few clouds... very warm.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with a chance of an afternoon/evening thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies... summery warmth.
high: 29C (85F)

sun and thunder... (am.29.apr.11)>

we have clear skies and some light haze before sunrise... and the early morning low temp has been 67.8F (19.9C).  there was quite a bit of lightning in the northwestern sky last night until after 9pm, but satellite photos this morning show that those kashmiri thunderstorms died out quickly.

widely scattered thundershowers are likely to develop along the front ranges of the himalayas once again this afternoon, in response to the building heat at the lower elevations colliding with some pockets of colder air aloft.  i don't expect significant rainfall at this point, but be prepared for the potential for a random afternoon thundershower... not only today, but on just about any given afternoon during the next several days.

hazy sunshine will remain the main weather feature, however... as high pressure in the upper atmosphere remains sprawled out across the sub-continent.  it looks like we are in for another phase of warming, with temperatures likely to rise another few degrees between now and the first part of next week.  in fact, unless we get hit with one of these afternoon thundershowers, the build-up of this early summer heat looks unstoppable...

FRIDAY: hazy sunshine giving way to partly cloudy skies by noon.  an afternoon thundershower is possible.
high: 27C (81F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: a thundershower or two in the area this evening... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  chance of a passing PM thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny and very warm.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy with a couple of thundershowers possible.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and very warm.  still that risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

Thursday, April 28, 2011

mostly great... (pm.28.apr.11)>

once again this evening we have partly cloudy and hazy skies... with a bit of thunder still up in the mountains as recently as about an hour ago.  the clouds really billowed up this afternoon over the dhauladars, with occasional rumbles of thunder starting around 2:45pm... but there was no rain, as far as i've seen or heard.  the high temp at the top of mcleod ganj was 79F (26.1C).

current satellite views show widely scattered thundershowers occurring along the front ranges of the himalayas... all the way from kashmir through himachal pradesh and uttar anchal, into nepal and sikkim.  all of this is happening in response to warmer temps at the surface, and random pockets of colder air in the upper atmosphere>> this combo is what is known as instability, because warmer air doesn't like to be trapped below significantly colder air aloft, and will inevitably rise and condense.  even without an organized storm system or large-scale disturbance, this is a typical late spring and summer scenario around here, and it looks like we can expect this for at least the next several days.

otherwise, there will still be a good amount of sunshine filtering through the haze and occasional clouds... and temperatures will remain near or slightly warmer than they've been the last several days.  gone is our sweater/jacket weather in the evenings and early mornings... finally!

THURSDAY NIGHT: a random thundershower is possible this evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, haze and clouds, with some scattered thundershowers around the area during the afternoon.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and warm, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies.  a little warmer.
high: 28C (82F)

MONDAY: sun, haze and some clouds, with a chance of a thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

as it should be... (am.28.apr.11)>

i have a pre-sunrise temperature of 66.7F (19.3C) this morning, under mostly clear but hazy skies.  satellite pics show a large batch of mainly high, thin cirrus clouds to our west.

well we're down to the final three days of april, and it looks like the month is going to wind down with very close to normal weather for this time of year, after a month that has been generally abnormal.  a broad area of weak high pressure remains anchored in the upper atmosphere from afghanistan into india, which continues to prevent any organized storm systems from moving through the area.  on the other hand, during the next several days, there are going to be a few little "jiggles and wiggles" aloft, combined with an occasional pool of cold air up around 5000m/16,000ft.  with all the heat still building down at the lower elevations, this is going to be the recipe for an extended period of moderate instability over the mountains.  that means we have at least a mentionable chance of a thundershower on any given afternoon.  right now, i think the best chances (just 30% or so) would be today and tomorrow, and again on monday... but it will have to be watched on a day-by-day basis.

believe it or not, temperatures are STILL warming up just to our south, so despite our slightly cooler day yesterday, we could easily warm back into the 80s(F)/27-29C.  and... unless we get a nice shot of rain, the haze isn't going anywhere...

THURSDAY: hazy sunshine this morning, then becoming partly cloudy.  there is a risk of a thundershower this afternoon.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: an evening shower/thundershower possible, then clearing skies.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a mix of haze, sun and clouds, with a chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies... very warm.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warm.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: slight chance of a thundershower, otherwise partly cloudy, hazy and warm again.
high: 28C (83F)

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

haze hangs in... (pm.27.apr.11)>

we have partly cloudy and hazy skies just before sunset this evening.  the clouds didn't thicken up as much this afternoon as yesterday, but it seemed to me that there was more haze in the air.  and for whatever reason, temperatures were a few degrees cooler today.  i had a high temp of just 77.2F (25.1C), which was our coolest since last friday.

our strong ridge of high pressure has been showing signs of breaking down during the past 24 hours or so, and although there are no significant disturbances in sight, things are becoming a bit more unstable than they've been in over a week.  there are some random pockets of colder air in the upper atmosphere that will be drifting through during the next few days, which could be enough to muster up some isolated thundershower action over the mountains.  in fact, this afternoon there were a few of those up in lahaul/spiti, and from near mandi into kinnaur.  it won't take much for a weak thundershower to pop up over the dhauladars one of these afternoons, so keep that in mind.

we've been very fortunate not to get the hot temperatures this far uphill... yet.  i am tempted to trim back our temps a couple of degrees for the remainder of this week, but it will only take a bit of a stronger breeze from the south-southwest during the mid-day hours for us to warm up dramatically... so let's see what happens.  at any rate, we'll be staying in the category of comfortable to warm right through the forecast period...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and hazy, with a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and haze.  still a chance of a thundershower, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies.  very warm.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

hazy sunshine... (am.27.apr.11)>

there is not a single cloud to be found in our pre-dawn skies... but there is quite a bit of haze, with rather low visibilities.  i'm looking at an early morning temp of 66.4F (19.1C) here at the top of mcleod ganj.

our sunny skies are under double-attack.  on one side, the instability is increasing over the mountains recently, which will cause a build-up of mountain clouds and perhaps even an isolated thundershower.  on the other side, full-on summer heat has become established down on the northern plains of india... and the air is becoming stagnant, trapping all kinds of dust and pollution.  so.. despite the lack of any organized storm systems, the afternoon mountain clouds and the dusty haze drifting up from the plains have (as of yesterday) begun to limit our percentage of sunshine.

there will be little change in the overall weather pattern for the remainder of the week... so temperatures will remain warm (call it HOT in dharamsala and below).  however, that mountain instability that i mentioned will give us at least a small risk of an afternoon thundershower... though any rainfall that does occur will be very light.

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine this morning.  some clouds developing this afternoon, with a slight chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: some evening clouds giving way to clear skies.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.  risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and haze.  still warm, with a PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and hazy again.
high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY: more of the same... warm, partly sunny and hazy.
high: 29C (85F)

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

afternoon clouds return... (pm.26.apr.11)>

clouds are just starting to break up after a period of overcast skies which started just after 2pm.  our morning was sunny, but there definitely is some colder air filtering in aloft, which created enough instability to generate the mountain clouds.  at the same time, the haze is thickening on the plains... so our string of about 4 days of unlimited sunshine may be at an end.  i recorded a high temp of 82.0F (27.8C) during the noon hour.

summer time heat is getting into full swing on the plains of north india.  temperatures have already reached 40C (104F) in delhi and amritsar, with 39C (102F) in chandigarh.  we are now into the time of year when we can be very grateful for our elevation benefits!  the overall weather pattern is not expected to change for the next few days, but the subtle decrease in upper-level temperatures is going to put us back into the mode of morning sun/afternoon clouds for the rest of the week.  there is also a chance that isolated thundershowers could develop in the mountains... and it's not out of the question that we could see one of these drift into mcleod during the afternoon.  measurable rainfall isn't likely, but don't be surprised by the potential interruption.

temperatures will probably rise another one or two degrees this week, while our atmosphere continues to become more and more influenced by the trapped dust and pollution to our south.  it seems april will end very differently than it began...

TUESDAY NIGHT: becoming clear.  quite warm.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of morning sun, then partly cloudy and hazy during the PM, with a risk of a brief thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and haze.  still very warm, with a PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies...
high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY: hazy sunshine... very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

temps keep climbing... (am.26.apr.11)>

it is 67.8F (19.9C) at the top of mcleod ganj, just below the mountaineering center at dawn this morning.  that's the warmest early morning temp i've recorded this year.  our skies are clear.

our bold and consistent warming trend is entering its seventh day... and it looks like temperatures will continue to slowly climb for another few days at least.  there are a couple of subtle changes which will have to be watched, however.  the first one concerns the heat which is building on the plains just to our south.  the atmosphere is very stable there, and the dust and pollution is trapped, which is already leading to lower visibilities and hazy skies.  the second concern is some slightly cooler air aloft which is going to be moving in over the mountains during the next few days.  it may generate just enough instability to set off some random afternoon thundershowers along the dhauladars.  any rainfall should be light (and probably not even measurable if it makes it into mcleod ganj), but trekkers and campers, etc, should be aware of the situation.

other than that... expect sunshine to remain the dominant weather feature right into the weekend, with temperatures safely in the early summer zone to finish off the month of april.

TUESDAY: sunny this morning... but hazy and becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  warming continues.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies. a warm night!
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy and warm, with partly cloudy skies and a chance of a brief afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm, with a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, haze and some afternoon clouds.  a PM thundershower is possible.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: hazy and warm... with partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 29C (84F)

Monday, April 25, 2011

himalayan paradise... (pm.25.apr.11)>

full sunshine this evening, after another day of sunny skies and warming temps.  there were (again) just a few cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, along with an increasing amount of haze... and a high temp here at the top of mcleod ganj of 80.8F (27.1C).

today was the sixth day in a row of steady warming, and it looks like we're not finished yet.  in fact, there seems to be very little to stop the atmosphere from continuing its gradual move into the realm of summer.  for weeks and weeks, we had an active jetstream running from the middle east into the western himalayas, but that dynamic flow has totally disappeared... replaced by a sprawling area of high pressure aloft. what that means practically is this: 1) no organized storm systems in sight, and 2) temperature running a bit above normal for the end of april.

a couple of our computer models are still hinting at some slight instability developing during the latter half of the week, which could trigger some isolated thundershowers over the mountains.  but... with this pattern, it's going to be really difficult to get measurable rainfall in mcleod, even if a mountain thundershower does pop up.

MONDAY NIGHT: clear and comfortable.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: warmer, with hazy sunshine again...
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and hazy.  slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: more of the same mix of sun, haze and a few clouds.  PM thundershower risk.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  still warm.
high: 29C (84F)

steadily warming... (am.25.apr.11)>

skies are crystal clear again at dawn this morning... with a very mild temp of 66.6F (19.2C).  even the early morning and evening chill is being chased away now.

our temperatures have been steadily rising since wednesday of last week, and should continue to climb during much of this week.  we have a big summer-time ridge of high pressure to thank for the long-awaited moderation in temps... and it will further build and strengthen across all of india between now and friday.  we'll still see plenty of sunshine this week, but by wednesday, there are going to be a couple of weak "wiggles" and pockets of colder air aloft drifting through, which could increase our chances of a random afternoon thundershower or two.  nothing dramatic, but just keep that in mind if you plan to be up in the mountains.

i think it is also just about time to expect the hazy skies to develop.  even yesterday i noticed that the visibility down towards gaggal and kangra was reduced... and due to the heat and lack of any organized areas of rain, the trapped dust and pollution will only increase.

MONDAY: mostly sunny and even warmer...
high: 27C (81F)

MONDAY NIGHT: clear skies, mild.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.  a random PM thundershower is possible.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: hazy sunshine, with a few clouds as well.  chance of an afternoon thundershower.  very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and continued warm, with that risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

Sunday, April 24, 2011

universally popular... (pm.24.apr.11)>

it is hard to please everyone all of the time, but i think today's weather might rate very very high on the people-pleasing scale.  other than just a few scrappy cumulus clouds over the mountains during the afternoon, we had sunny skies... and i recorded a high temp of 78.8F (26C)... the warmest of 2011 thus far.  temps down in dharamsala are pushing 30C (86F), and our warming trend is not over just yet.

the upper-air pattern continues to look more and more like a typical late spring, pre-monsoon scenario... which is a huge transformation from what we were stuck in just one week ago.  there appears to be no end to the gradual warming in all levels of the atmosphere... so that means that our temperatures will continue their steady upward climb during the next several days.

computer models continue to hint at just a bit of upper-level instability developing later this week, but at this point, all that means is that we need to be aware of the potential for a couple of random afternoon and early evening thundershowers over the mountains by about wednesday or so.  i would put the probabilities at only 20-30%.  so... enjoy this long-awaited late spring/early summer weather pattern while it lasts...

SUNDAY NIGHT: clear skies, mild temps.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies... the warming trend continues.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm, with a chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: hazy and warm, with a mix of sun and clouds.  a brief afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.  just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

easter SUNday... (am.24.apr.11)>

an idyllic easter morning in progress... with clear skies and a comfortable pre-sunrise temp of 62.6F (16.9C).

yesterday's high temperature tied the maximum for the year, but there is little doubt that today will indeed be the warmest day of 2011.  and there is also little doubt that temps will continue to warm during the following 2-3 days, thanks to our ridge of high pressure which is firmly in control from the surface all the way into the upper atmosphere.  sunshine will continue to dominate until tuesday... but then there are indications that a bit of energy and cooler air aloft will start to sneak back in, bringing back the 20-30% chances of an isolated afternoon thundershower, mainly in the mountains.

our temperatures during the next several days are going to be at least a couple of degrees above normal for the last week of april, both day and night... but keep in mind that it will be uncomfortably HOT down the hill towards kangra, palampur and especially pathankot, with highs there approaching 35C (95F).

EASTER SUNDAY: sunny skies... pleasantly warm.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: clear and comfortable.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and summer-like.
high: 27C (81F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.  a PM mountain thundershower?
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies, with a brief afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 28C (82F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.  chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

Saturday, April 23, 2011

savory... (pm.23.apr.11)>

the sun is dropping toward the horizon at the end of a day that has been pretty close to perfect.  we've had almost 100% sunshine, with the exception of just a few scattered cumulus clouds over the mountains during the first half of the afternoon.  i've recorded a high temp of 77.5F (25.3C)... which matches the high temp of the year, back on march 15th.

satellite pics this evening show a couple of isolated thundershowers from kinnaur into uttar anchal... evidence of a bit of instability remaining over the mountains to our east.  otherwise our nice big bubble of high pressure continues to build... and will keep us in line for more sunshine, and a sustained gradual warming trend over the course of the next few days.  night time temperatures will be warming as well, so it may be time to pack away some of the extra blankets, finally.

we're going to have to watch for a bit of an increase in the chance of isolated thundershowers during the afternoons possibly as early as tuesday, but more likely by wednesday, as the surface temperatures warm up too fast for the upper atmosphere to keep up.  but still... there are no organized storm systems on the horizon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: clear and mild.
low: 17C (62F)

EASTER SUNDAY: sunny skies and pleasantly warm temps.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny... warming trend continues.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.  a mountain thundershower during the PM?
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy and warm with partly cloudy skies.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 28C (82F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds... hazy and still warm, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

as good as it gets... (am.23.apr.11)>

our current 61.7F (16.5C) is the warmest early morning temp since way back on the 27th of march.  skies are clear just before sunrise.

this time last week we were gearing up for thunderstorms, heavy rain and a few days of very cool temperatures, but this weekend we are instead bracing ourselves for a string of the warmest days of the year thus far.  a big bubble of high pressure continues to build and strengthen across much of central and south asia... creating a road block for any approaching storm systems, and also allowing temperatures to steadily climb.  other than the obligatory random afternoon thundershower somewhere along the himalayan chain, skies will be mostly sunny for the next several days.

we have yet to experience any days with above normal temperatures this month, but that will change starting today or tomorrow... and continue right into the middle of next week.  if you plan to head down to dharamsala, kangra and beyond, be prepared for truly summer-like temps... with highs approaching 35C (95F) by monday and tuesday!

SATURDAY: mostly sunny skies... possibly the warmest day of the year.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: clear skies, mild temps.
low: 17C (63F)

EASTER SUNDAY: warm, with lots of sunshine.
high: 27C (80F)

MONDAY: warm-up continues, with sunshine and a few mountain clouds.
high: 27C (81F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy and warm, with partly cloudy skies.  chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

Friday, April 22, 2011

best weekend of 2011... (am.22.apr.11)>

today definitely wins the award for the nicest day of the month... along with being the second warmest of the entire year.  other than a feeble build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains during the first half of the afternoon, we had tons of sunshine today, and a high temp of 76.5F (24.7C).  it was a relief to see that the instability has now diminished to a point where PM thundershowers over the mountains could not occur.

the long-advertised warming in all levels of the atmosphere is now in full swing, but has only just begun.  we'll continue to see temperatures rise through the weekend and into early next week, as high pressure becomes established across the western himalayas.  this is one of the most pleasant weather patterns we get all year in this part of the world, and is to be enjoyed!  further down the mountain, temperatures will become downright HOT... with one computer model forecasting 35C (95F) for kangra by tuesday.  up here, we'll finally be going above normal for at least a few days, for the first time this month.

rain chances will be very slim through the middle of next week, but as we all know, with the dhauladars so close, isolated, random afternoon thundershowers can occur anytime, with little advance notice... so keep that in mind if you plan to be hiking, trekking, camping or otherwise enjoying our great outdoors...

FRIDAY NIGHT: clear skies.  comfortable temps.
low: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY: sunny in the morning... a few clouds in the afternoon.  warming trend continues...
high: 26C (78F)

EASTER SUNDAY: nice and warm, with lots of sunshine.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny skies, with summer-like warmth.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and even warmer, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

average for april... (am.22.apr.11)>

it is 57.3F (14C) with 100% clear skies at dawn.  there has been no measurable rainfall during the past 24 hours (despite a few sprinkles yesterday afternoon), and our total rainfall for the month of april stands at 5.97" (15.2cm).  that number is in record territory for april.

the big forecast question for the day concerns the possibility of more clouds and thundershower development over the mountains during the afternoon.  our overall weather pattern is quiet, but this pesky lingering pool of cold air aloft, in combination with a heated-up surface after a few hours of sunshine, has been giving us a few of hours of instability between about 1 and 4pm.  there will be lots of sun to both start and end the day, but just be aware of the potential for a mountain thundershower which could slide into mcleod as it dies out during the mid- to late afternoon.  on the other hand, the rapid warming aloft could squelch that potential today altogether... we'll have to wait and see.

the more significant news concerns the aggressive warming trend which is already underway, and which will continue into the middle of next week.  we are going to see the warmest temperatures of the year so far, along with skies that remain 70-80% sunny over the easter weekend... and for a few days thereafter.  i have a hard time remembering the last time we had a weekend without the threat of a major storm system moving in!  this year we've really had to scratch and claw our way to summer-like weather...

FRIDAY: lots of sun this morning.  becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a random light thundershower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly clear and pleasantly mild.
low: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny skies... warming continues...
high: 25C (77F)

EASTER SUNDAY: lots of sunshine.  the warmest day of the year!
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny with summer-like warmth.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and warm.
high: 27C (80F)

Thursday, April 21, 2011

approaching status quo... (pm.21.apr.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies before sunset... a gorgeous evening after a beautiful morning and a less than gorgeous afternoon!  we dodged the bullet yesterday, but today during the mid-afternoon we did catch the dying gasp of a mountain thundershower which brought very gusty winds and some sprinkles to the area.  the rain wasn't measurable, but was definitely a punctuation mark in the middle of an otherwise super nice day.  i recorded a high temp of 74.5F (23.6C), which ties with the high on april 15th as the warmest of the month.

as i've been mentioning, we still have a lingering pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere which is causing some instability during the afternoon hours, during the maximum heating of the day.  this instability will decrease little by little during the coming days, but i think there remains a decent shot at some of this mountain build-up of clouds maturing into a rogue thundershower or two during the afternoons.  but really, it's all minor compared to the shift in the overall weather pattern that is already in progress.

we are still in line for a consistent and steady warming trend, which shows no signs of being interrupted by upper-level disturbances, as has been the case for most of this spring season.  high pressure will continue to strengthen aloft, and temperatures at the surface will continue to climb.  there is a pretty good chance that we could end the month of april with above normal temperatures for a change...

THURSDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.  rather mild.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: morning sun, but becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon... pleasantly warm.  still that risk of an isolated PM thundershower.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 25C (77F)

EASTER SUNDAY: lots of sunshine... the warmest day of the year.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunshine... summer-like warmth.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: sunny and warm.
high: 27C (80F)

unstoppable warm-up... (am.21.apr.11)>

a beautiful morning... clear skies and 57.2F (14C).  satellite photos indicate a wide area of clear skies from the arabian sea through northern india, except for a couple of patches of mid-level clouds over northern pakistan.

low pressure aloft, and its associated pool of cold air, is all that remains of the recent storm system that brought record april rainfall to the area.  this feature will continue to provide a bit of instability during the afternoon today, which means that some clouds and isolated thundershowers could still pop up over the mountains for a few hours.  but that is really the only fly in the ointment of a weather scenario that is looking nicer and nicer by the day.

the upper-air pattern is changing completely from what we have been seeing for the last several weeks.  high pressure is building aloft, which means that temperature from the surface up to jetstream level will be on the rise.  there is no trace of any organized storm system for the next week, at least.  as of yesterday, temperatures have already rebounded into the comfort zone... but expect some genuine summer-time warmth by easter sunday!

THURSDAY: lots of sun this morning, with skies becoming partly cloudy during the PM.  a brief shower/thundershower possible over the mountains.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: a brief evening shower in the vicinity..?  otherwise becoming mostly clear.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and warmer...
high: 25C (77F)

EASTER SUNDAY: plenty of sunshine.  warmest day of the year thus far?
high: 26C (78F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny with near summer-like temps.
high: 26C (79F)

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

turning the corner... (pm.20.apr.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies this evening, after a much-improved day featuring warmer temperatures and lots of sunshine.  the clouds have been billowing up over the mountains since early this afternoon, but so far, the widely scattered shower and thundershower action has stayed out of the dharamsala area.  i recorded a very comfortable high temp of 72.1F (22.3C) during the mid-afternoon.

we have dodged the bullet this afternoon, as satellite pics (and a look from my rooftop) indicate a few clusters of thundershowers along the front ranges of the himalayas, from kashmir into himachal.  i think there is still a slight (20%) chance that we could get side-swiped by one of these before they totally die out after dark.  the remnants of our recent big storm system is responsible for the lingering instability... but that will be gradually diminishing altogether during the next day or two.

the next weather feature that we have to look forward to is a strengthening widespread area of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  temperatures will be warming steadily for the next several days (or more)... and there will be nothing more than an isolated shower or two mainly over the mountains to interrupt the sunshine.  it looks like we will finally get april-like weather, just as the month is winding down...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: slight chance of a brief shower early... otherwise becoming mostly clear.
low: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.  only a slight chance of a brief PM shower.  pleasant temps.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy, warmer.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: plenty of sunshine, warming trend continues...
high: 25C (77F)

EASTER SUNDAY: mostly sunny.  possibly the warmest day of the year.
high: 26C (78F)

MONDAY: sunshine dominates.   near summer-like temps.
high: 26C (79F)

positive steps... (am.20.apr.11)>

it is very refreshing to see clear skies at dawn this morning!  i have a temp of 53.2F (11.8C) to kick off the day.  satellite pics are showing no organized areas of clouds or precipitation across the western himalayas at the moment.

but... be aware that our sunshine this morning may be deceiving.  although the storm system of the last few days has disintegrated for the most part, there is still a large pool of very cold air in the upper atmosphere extending from northern pakistan across northern india into western tibet.  as the sun heats up the surface later this morning and early afternoon, we will likely see clouds and scattered thundershowers rapidly develop.  this chance of afternoon showers will gradually diminish during the next couple of days, hopefully, as a more stable airmass takes over.

all the computer models continue to forecast a transition to a very summer-like pattern during the next several days.  the active jetstream embedded with a constant parade of disturbances will virtually disappear, allowing for generally dry and sunny weather, along with some dramatic warming.

WEDNESDAY: sunshine this morning, but becoming partly cloudy by afternoon with a couple of thundershowers possible.  a bit milder...
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: chance of an evening shower, then becoming mostly clear.
low: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: morning sun, some afternoon clouds, with a risk of a passing shower.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies... warming up.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 24C (75F)

EASTER SUNDAY: lots of sunshine... warm.
high: 25C (77F)

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

the gloom continues... (pm.19.apr.11)>

it is cloudy, breezy and cool early this evening, with a few light showers around the area.  i recorded a high temp of just 65.5F (18.6C) right after noon, before the clouds thickened up again.  although there have been a few periods of sprinkles and light showers today, here at the top of mcleod ganj i have only 0.03" (0.7mm) to show for it.

well... the rain intensity has definitely diminished during the past 24 hours or so, but we haven't been able to permanently rid ourselves of the clouds and chilly winds.  that's because our upper-level disturbance has chosen north india as its death bed.  this thing isn't really moving anywhere... but simply sitting and slowly spinning itself out of existence.  there is still a lot of cold air a few thousand feet above us, and as long as that is there, it will remain rather unstable.  so, there will be no immediate return to dry and sunny weather, but occasional periods of clouds and perhaps a few light showers for another day or two.

the good news i've been talking about is still waiting in the wings... a major shift in the weather pattern will come in the form of high pressure aloft, which is now building out to our west.  if we can be patient for another couple of days, we'll be rewarded with increasing sunshine and a major boost in temperatures for easter weekend...

TUESDAY NIGHT: scattered light showers, with partial clearing late.
low: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of one or two periods of light showers.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder, with only a slight chance of a shower.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and nice.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: sunshine and a few clouds... warmer temps!
high: 24C (75F)

EASTER SUNDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 25C (77F)

is there any hope?... (am.19.apr.11)>

we have cloudy skies very early this morning, with a temp of 54.3F (12.3C).  i also just noticed a few sprinkles when i went up on the roof... but i've only received an additional 0.04" of rain since last night's report.

this is one tenacious storm system!  this morning's satellite photos and upper-air charts are showing the center of circulation over northern punjab.. which means it has moved very little in the past 24 hours.  there is not a lot of moisture left, but the very cold air aloft is creating enough instability to cause the clouds and scattered showers to persist.  during the next couple of days, this weakening system will drift slowly to the east and die out... but to be honest, i think we're going to have to put up with a threat of at least some light, scattered showers today, with slight chances even into tomorrow and thursday.

by the latter part of the week, there is some really good news... for the first time in many weeks, there is no approaching upper-level disturbance on the way to spoil the weekend.  in fact, quite the opposite.  it appears that a very calm, quiet and serene ridge of summer-like high pressure will finally become established from the arabian sea across afghanistan and pakistan, into northern india.  if this scenario manifests, then we will be enjoying much warmer and sunnier weather by easter sunday.  better late than never!

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy early... then partly cloudy.  windy at times.  still a few showers around, with a thundershower possible as well.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: an evening thundershower..?  then clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder, with a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy... still that pesky chance of a passing shower during the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and nice.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 24C (75F)

Monday, April 18, 2011

stubborn showers... (pm.18.apr.11)>

thundershowers are in progress early this evening... with 0.26" (7mm) of new rainfall in the past hour or so.  that now brings the total rainfall since just after midnight on sunday morning up to 4.13" (10.5cm), which is basically unheard of during a 48 hour period during the month of april.  today's high temp was 68F (20C), thanks to some nice periods of sunshine, although the evening rain has now brought the chill back.

the atmosphere is in a weird mood... the upper-level storm system responsible for all this rainy/stormy weather is still centered just slightly to our west... along the southwest border of kashmir.  the counter-clockwise circulation around this system is still drawing up moisture from the south.  it looks like it will be drifting ever-so-slowly to the east during the next couple of days, so i am starting to get the impression that our thundershower chances will linger.  although rainfall amounts will dramatically diminish, keeping isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers (with thunder) in the forecast for another day or two seems wise.

later in the week, a more seasonal ridge of high pressure is expected to gain strength in all levels of the atmosphere... and that means warmer temps, a greater percentage of sunshine, and less risk of rain.

MONDAY NIGHT: thundershowers likely before midnight... then clearing.
low: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of an afternoon shower/thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny, with a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: morning sun, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  pleasant temps.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and nice.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: plenty of sunshine... warmer.
high: 24C (75F)

more storms moving in...

strong thunderstorms are moving in from the south, and rapidly developing around the area this evening.  be prepared for thunder and lightning, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds during the next 2-3 hours...

monsoon-like rainfall... (am.18.apr.11)>

it's partly cloudy at dawn this morning.  the temp is 54F (12.2C), but the low since midnight has been 52.3F (11.3C).  those robust thunderstorms last night delivered another 1.48" (3.8cm) of rain... bringing the total since late saturday night up to a whopping 3.87" (9.8cm)!  most of that occurred in about 24 hours' time... and i am wondering if that might be some kind of record for the month of april..??  at any rate, what we've experienced the last day and a half is something very very unusual for this time of year.

our naddi observer has also reported 1.48" (3.8cm) of rain overnight... identical to mine.  near the main temple, overnight rain measured 1.2" (3cm).

the culprit, an intense area of low pressure aloft, is now sitting pretty much right on top of us.  so... although it is quite calm and peaceful at the moment, our airmass remains unstable, and could erupt in another round of thunderstorms later today.  by tonight and tomorrow, this system will have weakened and moved east of us, allowing a gradual return to drier and warmer weather to get underway.  unfortunately, the ratio between temperatures at the surface and temperatures in the upper atmosphere is going to keep our airmass marginally unstable for much of the week... so keep in mind that there will remain about a 20% chance of afternoon thunder, despite the greater amount of sunshine.

temperatures are obviously way below normal right now... but there are indications that steady warming will occur this week, lasting through the coming weekend, as a more seasonal upper-air pattern becomes established.  that's good news.

MONDAY: partly cloudy early, but becoming mostly cloudy with a good chance of another round of showers and thunderstorms.  cool... breezy at times.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY NIGHT: some showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny AM, becoming partly cloudy PM, with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.  some PM thunder?
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and nice.
high: 23C (73F)

Sunday, April 17, 2011

more rain likely... (pm.17.apr.11)>

skies are cloudy just after sunset this evening, with a few sprinkles and very light showers around the area.  after our very very wet morning, it was a little nicer during the afternoon.  total rainfall since midnight is as follows:

-upper mcleod ganj: 2.39" (6.1cm)
-near the main temple: 2.20" (5.6cm)
-naddi village: 2.0" (5.1cm)

impressive for a day in april!  my high temp was 64.1F (17.8C), thanks to some brief appearances of the sun during the mid-afternoon hours.

unfortunately, this rainy weather is not over yet.  our upper-level storm system is centered over western kashmir this evening, and there is still quite a lot of thunderstorm development occurring across himalayan north india.  i think there is a 60-70% chance that we could see another one or two rounds of heavy rain between now and tomorrow afternoon, before this system departs to the east.  so don't be surprised by the sound of thunder during the next 18-24 hours or so.

starting on tuesday... things will improve.  although there will still be enough instability to stir up some random showers and thundershowers, rain chances will generally drop to around 20% for the midde and latter parts of the week.  the overall weather pattern will finally shift toward something more normal for this time of year... allowing our temperatures to rebound nicely.

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with more rain and thunderstorms likely.  windy at times.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a few more showers and thunderstorms around the area.  breezy and unseasonably cool.
high: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with only a slight chance of a brief afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warming up...
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and comfortable.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 22C (72F)

RAINY SUNDAY...

2:50pm... we're getting some nice peeks of sunshine through the clouds now... with no rain in the last couple of hours.  but more thunderstorm development is likely before the day is out.  temp has risen to 63F (17.2C), warmest of the day.

12:18pm...showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse on and off across the area at the noon hour.  i've recorded an additional 0.74" since this morning's report.

check back here for updates, and SCROLL DOWN FOR YOUR FULL WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST...

heavy rain threat... (am.17.apr.11)>

i was stunned to find 1.65" (4.2cm) in my rain gauge this morning... i knew we had one heck of a storm overnight, but i didn't expect the rainfall to be that heavy, already!!  our pre-sunrise temp is 57F (13.9C), with cloudy skies and some scattered light showers in the area.

*7:00am... my fellow weathergeeks just above the main temple have reported exactly 1.50" (3.8cm) of rain overnight.

*7:15am... 1.14" (2.9cm) from our wxgeek reporter in naddi village.

the latest satellite pictures and weather charts are showing a storm system that looks much more like something we would see in mid-winter, as opposed to mid-spring... in terms of its sheer dynamic energy.  right now, the center of circulation is over northern pakistan, with a very strong flow of moisture from the arabian sea feeding northeastward up ahead of it.  it will take until late tomorrow for this system to move out of here... and that means more showers and thunderstorms are likely, along with occasionally strong and gusty winds.  there will probably be some good breaks between the bouts of rain and storms, but be aware that more heavy rain, thunder and lightning could rapidly develop anytime between now and tomorrow afternoon.

temperatures will be cooler today and monday, with a very gradual warming trend expected over the course of the remainder of the week.  it also looks like we'll see a major shift in the overall weather pattern, which holds some promise of ending the month in finer fashion...

SUNDAY: clouds, perhaps a few peeks of sun.  occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, with gusty winds at times.  very cool!
high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: more rain and thunderstorms likely.  windy and cool.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cool, with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
high: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy skies... just a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 22C (71F)

Saturday, April 16, 2011

under the gun... (pm.16.apr.11)>

the day is ending as it began, with 100% cloudy skies.  but in between, we did get a few nice periods of sunshine, which boosted my thermometer up to a high of 73.9F (23.3C).  there were a few sprinkles of rain very early this morning... but so far... no measurable precipitation for the day.

i am going to go out on a limb and say that there is pretty close to a 100% chance of significant rainfall during the next 36-48 hours.  in fact, a couple of our computer models are forecasting greater than 3cm (1.2") between now and mid-day monday.  i think that's very reasonable, considering the strength of the storm system moving into northern india at the moment.  as of this writing, thunderstorms are erupting as far south as western and northern gujarat... which is almost unheard of this time of year.  the center of this intense upper-level disturbance will plow through himachal pradesh tomorrow into monday morning... so that's when i expect the heaviest rain and thunderstorm activity to occur.

we should see rapid improvement on tuesday... with much quieter and brighter weather for the middle of the coming week.  temperatures will take a major hit with the onslaught of this system, but will recover slowly by thursday.  stay tuned for storm updates, if/when they become necessary.

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and breezy, with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms moving in.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler, with gusty winds at times.  periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy and windy, with rain and thunderstorms likely.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: still a good chance of a couple of thundershowers around... breezy and cool with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
high: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably cool... chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy... slightly milder.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 21C (70F)

get ready... (am.16.apr.11)>

it's cloudy just before sunrise this morning, and i have a few sprinkles here at the wxgeek office.  the current temp is a balmy 61.2F (16.2C), after an overnight low of 59.5F (15.3C).

kind of a tough forecast today... right now it is totally overcast, but satellite photos show a few breaks to our west.  if clouds hang in all day, then we'll get very little warming, but if we can manage at least a couple of hours of sunshine, this airmass is warm enough to get us well into the 70s(F).  at this point i think the best thing is to split the difference... it's gonna be one of those days.

the upper-level disturbance i've been talking about for the last few days is knocking on our door now.  this is a really strong system for april, and as it moves through between now and monday, will bring us a very good chance of significant rainfall in the form of occasional showers and thunderstorms.  i'm still pretty confident that the window of opportunity for the heaviest rainfall and most intense thunderstorm action will occur on sunday and monday.  so it would be a good idea to be prepared for that...  expect gusty winds to develop as well... along with a sudden turn to chilly temps for two or three days.

looking further ahead... an improving scenario awaits us starting on tuesday of next week.

SATURDAY: clouds alternating with a few periods of sun.  increasing chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, with a good chance of some showers and storms.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies, with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely.  breezy and turning cooler...
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms in the area.  breezy and cool.
high: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny... with only a slight chance of a lingering shower.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... still rather cool.
high: 21C (69F)

Friday, April 15, 2011

increasing storm potential... (pm.15.apr.11)>

skies are partly cloudy this evening before sunset... we had about a 50/50 split between clouds and sun today, along with some thunder during the mid-afternoon.  as far as i am aware, there was no rain in the immediate mcleod ganj area... but i'm sure there were at least some sprinkles somewhere around greater dharamsala.  i recorded a high temp of 74.5F (23.6C), which (shockingly) is the warmest of the month thus far.

the nice weather we've enjoyed during the last 3 days or so is going to be rapidly coming to an end.  satellite photos this evening show all kinds of shower and thunderstorm activity to our west across much of pakistan... in association with yet another unsually strong upper-level disturbance.  this weather system will be plowing through himalayan north india during the next 3 days or so, and will definitely stir up some significant storminess.  rain chances will be on the increase starting right away... but i think the bull's-eye opportunity for the worst of it here will be between mid-day sunday and mid-day monday.  once again, i wouldn't be surprised to see some rainfall amounts in excess of 1" (2.5cm) during the next 72 hours.

temperatures will begin a gradual decent during the next few days... still comfortable tomorrow, but dropping back well below normal between sunday and the middle of next week.  our crazy april of 2011 continues...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a shower or thundershower developing overnight.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: clouds... a few peeks of sun. breezy and turning cooler, with some showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool.  still a good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with only a slight chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  still on the cool side...
high: 21C (69F)

both sun and clouds... (am.15.apr.11)>

a batch of high clouds is moving in from the west at dawn this morning, and that may dim our sunrise just a bit.  we have a temp of 59F (15C) to start the day.

it looks like we have another decent day on the way... with comfortable temperatures and a good amount of sunshine.  these high clouds are the first sign of our next storm system, though.  i think rain chances will be only slight today, but will gradually increase thereafter, with a 70-80% likelihood of showers and thunderstorms on sunday and monday.  there are still indications that we could receive some moderate to heavy rainfall (most likely from late sunday into monday)... so things might get interesting.  already, we're near the normal amount of rain for the entire month of april, so anything more during the last half of the month will confirm the fact that we are having an unusually wet spring!  keep in mind that april is normally the second driest month of the year (behind november).

this is the time of year when we should be having long stretches of t-shirt weather... but unfortunately, temperatures will tumble again with the arrival of clouds and showers over the weekend.

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  just a slight chance of a brief light shower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a shower or two overnight.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy, becoming breezy, with a good chance of thundershowers, mainly during the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: still a good chance of some rain and thunderstorms.  mostly cloudy and cool.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy... a lingering shower or two?
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, April 14, 2011

calm and comfortable... (pm.14.apr.11)>

a super nice evening in progress... we have partly cloudy skies, with temps slowly cooling down from an afternoon high temp of 72.9F (22.7C).  the thunder held off today, although there was a pretty impressive accumulation of convective clouds over the mountains during the afternoon, once again..

those clouds are disappearing around and just after sunset, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight, and another good bit of sunshine tomorrow morning.  our calm and quiet weather pattern of the last couple of days will be coming to an end soon, however.  the next in a seemingly never-ending series of upper-level disturbances is expected to arrive this weekend, bringing us an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms starting friday evening, and peaking on sunday into early monday.  sound familiar??  that's because it's an almost identical scenario to the one which occurred earlier this week.  the computer models haven't come into agreement yet, but one model is showing the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall.  keep your eye on the sky (and the forecast) if you have outdoor plans this weekend.

temperatures have struggled back to within a couple of degrees of where they should be this time of year, but will not likely warm up much further before they drop again.  in fact, we'll see downright chilly weather again during the first part of next week...

THURSDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies... comfortable.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing during the afternoon and evening.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of showers and storms likely.  not as warm...
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sun.  cool, with a good chance of another thundershower or two.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower.  still on the cool side...
high: 20C (68F)

quite stunning... (am.14.apr.11)>

it is a stunning early morning... clear skies with a temp of 57.7F (14.3C).  get ready for lots of sunshine and a nice warm-up during the morning hours.

i think everyone is very happy to have a break in the action... and it should last for another couple of days.  we are in between weather systems, with a weak area of high pressure in place which will allow for plenty of sun, only a slight chance of PM shower action, and seasonably warm temperatures.  as we saw yesterday, the cumulus clouds may still go wild during the mid- and late afternoon, leading to some rumbling thunder and perhaps a stray shower over the mountains... but i don't expect any significant rain in mcleod.

starting on friday evening (just in time for the weekend), the next upper-level disturbance will move our way.  with each successive computer model run, this system is looking stronger and stronger... so get ready for another few days of dodging occasional showers and thunderstorms, a reduction in sunshine, along with a drop in temperatures.  hard to believe we still can't pack away the fleeces and jackets this year!

THURSDAY: a sunny morning... with partly cloudy skies and some mountain thunder possible during the afternoon.  comfortably warm.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear... mild.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sunshine and increasing high clouds.  slight chance of a thundershower by evening.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy, with an increasing chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and not as warm, with some showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: clouds, a few peeks of sun, along with a good chance of another thundershower or two.  cool...
high: 19C (67F)

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

definitely acceptable... (pm.13.apr.11)>

we have mostly cloudy skies just before sunset this evening, with a few sprinkles in the vicinity.  thunder has been rumbling on and off since about 2:10pm, thanks to the expected convective development over the mountains.  this is an indication that temperatures aloft are still cold in relation to surface temps... leading to an unstable airmass during the afternoon hours.  it was MUCH warmer today, with a high temp of 73.1F (22.8C) here at the very top of mcleod ganj.

the generally pleasant weather we had today is going to remain with us for about the next 48 hours.  a weak area of calm high pressure is trying to develop in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere... which will provide us with lots of morning sunshine, warmer temperatures, and only a very slight chance of any significant rainfall.  i expect temps both tomorrow and friday to be pretty close to normal for mid-april, for a change.

by friday night, things will go downhill yet again.  the upper-air pattern remains extremely active for this time of year, with another unusually strong upper-level disturbance on the way for the weekend.  shower and thunderstorm chances will be better than 50/50 for both saturday and sunday... and temperatures will fall well below normal again by monday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: any sprinkles ending this evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY: lots of morning sunshine... but partly cloudy during the afternoon with some mountain thunder possible.  nice and warm!
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: increasing cloudiness... but still warm.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of some thundershowers developing.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and quite cool.  still a good chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 19C (67F)

rebounding temps... (am.13.apr.11)>

skies are perfectly clear this morning, for a change... with a temp of 53.8F (12.1C).  the new rainfall from last night's thundershowers totalled 0.73" (1.9cm), giving us a grand total of 1.53" (3.9cm) for the last 3 days.  that is pretty close to the average/normal rainfall for the entire month of april!

it IS good to get rain during the typically "dry" season... it goes a long way in helping our water supply, but for those longing for some sunshine and warmer temps, it will be payback time during the next 3 days or so.  our weather pattern is going to calm down between now and friday, as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in the upper atmosphere.  this time of year, it is rare to totally squelch the afternoon convective clouds (and subsequent thunder/sprinkles) over the mountains, but i think any rainfall between now and friday will be brief and very light.  temps are warming in all levels of the atmosphere, so we should rebound into a range that it is a little closer to normal for mid-april.

this won't last long, however, as another upper-level disturbance makes its way into the area by the weekend.  at this point, it doesn't look as ominous as the one we've just dealt with, but showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast, nonetheless...

WEDNESDAY: sunny this morning, but becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a slight chance of a brief thundershower.  warmer!
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: an isolated evening shower possible, then becoming mostly clear.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: increasing clouds, but seasonably warm.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: clouds, a few peeks of sun... with a few showers and storms around.  turning cooler.
high: 20C (68F)

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

evening thundershowers...

we have an impressive cluster of thundershowers tonight, extending from northern punjab into much of central and western himachal pradesh.  they have rapidly developed just after sunset, in association with our now departing upper-level disturbance.

as of 8.24pm, moderate rainfall, and nearly continuous thunder and lightning are occurring across our area.  i expect another 1/2" (1.3cm) in a few spots before this dies out... most likely well before midnight.

*9.20pm... WOW... i have 0.68" (1.7cm) in my rain gauge from these thundershowers during the past hour and a half.  but it all appears to be winding down shortly.

SCROLL DOWN FOR YOUR COMPLETE FORECAST...

a brighter outlook... (pm.12.apr.11)>

there are still a few scattered light showers around the area just before sunset this evening, with mostly cloudy skies.  our off and on showers/thundershowers today yielded another 0.10" (2.5mm) in my rain gauge... bringing the total rainfall since sunday up to 0.80" (2cm).  based on reports i've received from near the main temple and naddi, these totals seem to be fairly consistent.  it was a bit milder today than yesterday, thanks to the mid-day sunshine.  i recorded a high temp of 67.6F (19.8C).

we should be in for an improving weather scenario during the coming 24 hours... which will last until the weekend.  this strong and persistent upper-level disturbance will shift east of us and weaken, as high pressure builds (at least temporarily) in the upper atmosphere.  this will lead to more stable conditions, along with a rather dramatic warming trend...  temperatures should rapidly warm back into the comfort zone during the next couple of days.

i don't think we are heading for a long-term stretch of nice weather, though... as another upper-level disturbance looks on schedule to arrive friday night or saturday.  you know what that means> increasing chances of rain again, along with a return to slightly cooler temps.

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy early, with a few thundershowers.  becoming partly cloudy overnight.
low: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies.  warmer, with only a slight chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but increasing clouds during the afternoon.  nice and warm.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of a few showers and storms.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... a chance of a couple of showers and thundershowers. not as warm.
high: 21C (69F)

rain risk continues... (am.12.apr.11)>

it is 55F (12.8C) just before sunrise this morning, under mostly cloudy skies.  i have a brand new 0.40" (1.0cm) in the rain gauge this morning, bringing total rainfall since sunday morning up to 0.70" (1.8cm).  i'll post other rainfall totals around the area as they become available.

it looks like we have one more day to dodge showers and storms... and then a couple of nicer days are on the way.  this unusually vigorous upper-level storm system remains centered just to our north and west, and will push on through here during the coming 18 hours or so.  rain chances remain better than 50/50 today... but will drop significantly tomorrow through friday.  a weak ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will provide 2-3 days of drier and sunnier weather, before the next storm system moves in over the weekend.

the best news i have to report is that temperatures are going to show a rather dramatic warm-up starting tomorrow, and continuing into friday and saturday.  we may actually struggle back up to where we should be for this time of year... imagine that!!

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a few more showers and thunderstorms around the area.  still on the cool side...
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: a couple of evening showers or thundershowers... then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY: only a slight chance of a PM thundershower... otherwise partly to mostly sunny and warmer.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun and a few clouds.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy... a nice and warm day.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy, with a chance of a thundershower by late afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

Monday, April 11, 2011

more of the same... (pm.11.apr.11)>

the temperature is a cool 59F (15C) this evening, under cloudy skies.  the high temp today was 65.1F (18.4C), but that actually occurred just after midnight, before the showers and storms moved in.  i've recorded another 0.17" (4mm) of rain since this morning's report, bringing the total rainfall since yesterday up to 0.30" (8mm).  our observers near the main temple reported 0.15" (4mm) as of this morning, and i also have a report of 0.35" (9mm) from naddi village.

everywhere i went today, people were talking about how bizarre and strange it is to be having weather like this in the middle of april!  i also have a hard time remembering such consistently cool, cloudy and damp weather during this time of year.  last year at this time it was around 80F (27C) nearly every day, and people were in t-shirts and shorts.

this unusually strong upper-level disturbance is going to remain with us for about the next 24 hours.  all kinds of clouds blanket the area, with embedded showers and thundershowers quite common from pakistan into northern india.  it's likely that rain chances will diminish starting late tomorrow... and sunshine will gradually return as we get into the latter half of the week.  with the sun will come a fairly rapid turn to warmer temperatures... but we have a problem... yet ANOTHER storm system is expected to arrive this weekend!

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, with another period or two of showers and thunderstorms likely.
low: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of a few more showers and possible thunderstorms.  unseasonably cool, again.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and warming up.  just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and high clouds... nice.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds, with a chance of some showers and thundershowers developing.
high: 23C (73F)

occasionally thundery... (am.11.apr.11)>

it's mostly cloudy before sunrise this morning, with a temp of 57.2F (14C)... and i have a fresh 0.08" (2mm) in the rain gauge, thanks to a couple of rounds of thunderstorms overnight.  in fact, thunder and lightning were quite intense during the wee hours, with some gusty winds as well.  total rainfall during the past 24 hours is now 0.13" (3mm).

satellite photos this morning show the wave of energy which passed through overnight is now moving east of us... but the main center of the upper-level disturbance remains to our west over northern pakistan.  there will be at least another couple of "waves" of energy ejecting out of this system during the next 36-48 hours, which will keep us in line for more in the way of occasional showers and storms.  so far, rainfall amounts have been very light, but i still think a total of 1cm (nearly a 1/2 inch) of rain is a good bet by tuesday night.  there will probably be a couple of showers/thundershowers around on wednesday, but in general, precipitation chances will be dropping during the latter half of the week.

as rain chances diminish, temperatures will be on the rise.  the coolish weather of today and tuesday will gradually be replaced by more seasonal warmth by thursday and friday.

MONDAY: cloudy and very cool...  good chance of more showers or thunderstorms.
high: 17C (62F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, with a few showers and/or thunderstorms likely.
low: 14C (57F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of more showers and thunderstorms.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and a bit warmer.  just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies, pleasantly warm temps.
high: 23C (74F)

Sunday, April 10, 2011

dodging showers... (pm.10.apr.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy early this evening, after a high temp of only 66.5F (19.2C), and about 0.05" (1mm) of rain.  we had a few showers early this morning, and then a more substantial period of showers during the mid-afternoon hours, but still, nothing particularly significant... yet.

a potent upper-level disturbance is moving into northern pakistan at the moment, and will be gradually shifting eastward across northern india during the next 2-3 days.  there are a few separate "waves" of energy with this system, and each will be capable of stirring up a round of showers and possible thunderstorms between now and tuesday.  i still see evidence of the potential for some moderate rainfall (greater than 1cm/0.40") by the time it all winds down.  the clouds and occasional showers will keep temperatures on the cool side for april, which i think we've become quite used to by now.

i'm not super optimistic about a definitive clearing trend during the latter part of the week, but i think rain chances will diminish back down to the 20% (or less) range for thursday and friday.  one thing does look likely... we should see a fairly steady warming trend by then...

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a period or two of showers.  a thunderstorm possible as well.
low: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies, with a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms likely.  unseasonably cool.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: clouds, a bit of sun... still a good chance of a few showers or storms around.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and warming up.  just a slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine... warming trend continues.
high: 23C (74F)

showers arrive... (am.10.apr.11)>

we're waking up to cloudy skies, some light rain, and a mild temp of 59.5F (15.3C) on this sunday morning.  so far there is nothing measurable in the rain gauge... but that will likely change during the coming 12-24 hours.

saturday's high temp was 73.1F (22.8C), thanks to some nice sunshine during the morning and early afternoon hours... but the clouds really thickened up during the afternoon, which led to some gusty winds and a few sprinkles during the evening.  i don't think we'll be repeating the pleasant warmth of yesterday, as satellite photos indicate all kinds of clouds in our vicinity, and westward.  a complex upper-level disturbance is to blame for this... and it will be affecting our weather all the way until the middle of the coming week.

expect a good chance of occasional showers and possibly even a thunderstorm or two today and monday... with scattered showers possible into tuesday as well.  as i've been mentioning the last couple of days, this system has more moisture at its disposal than we've seen recently, so some significant rainfall amounts are quite possible (>1cm) before all is said and done.

it will be cooler through tuesday, thanks to the clouds and showers... but expect a nice warm-up during the latter half of the week, as this storm system makes its exit...

SUNDAY: clouds, along with some peeks of sun.  good chance of a few periods of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms likely.
low: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cool, with occasional showers and storms likely.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy... still a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and warming up.  just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sunshine.  pleasantly warm.
high:: 23C (73F)

Saturday, April 9, 2011

pleasant start to the weekend... (am.9.apr.11)>

we have a beautiful dawn in progress... mostly clear skies with a rather balmy temp of 58.1F (14.5C).  this is the warmest early morning low temperature since tuesday, the 29th of march!

our saturday will begin with lots of sunshine, and it should be a pleasantly warm day... but satellite photos are already showing batches of mid- and high clouds approaching from the west, in association with the next upper-level disturbance.  although temps aloft have warmed up, this is looking like a dynamic system, and there are indications it may be able to pull in more moisture than our most recent storms.  the first chance of shower and thunderstorm activity will enter the forecast this afternoon... with chances gradually increasing tomorrow into monday.  once again, we're not talking about any long-lasting, all-day rains, but just be prepared for a few of periods of showers and storms between late today and tuesday... with the best potential for significant rainfall on sunday and monday.

after today, our temperatures are going to be dropping a few degrees, keeping us below our mid-april normal high of around 75F (24C)... and although rain chances will start to diminish by tuesday, the general weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of next week.

SATURDAY: sunshine this morning, but increasing clouds by this afternoon, with a chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a thundershower possible.
low: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a better chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: clouds, and a few peeks of sun.  unseasonably cool, with a lingering shower or two still possible.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

Friday, April 8, 2011

another 24 hours of "nice"... (pm.8.apr.11)>

there are patches of high, thin cirrus clouds across the area this evening, otherwise skies are mostly clear, after a really really nice day.  i recorded a high temp of 70.9F (21.6C) just below the mountaineering center up at the top of mcleod ganj (surprisingly, it was only 69F (20.6C) near the main temple)... which was the warmest in nearly a week.

you may have noticed that there was very little development of cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, which is a clear indication that temperatures in the upper atmosphere have finally warmed up in relation to surface temps.  unfortunately, this stable situation is going to be very short-lived.  a very active, fast-moving jetstream pattern is developing to our west yet again, and will push another upper-level disturbance through northern india between late tomorrow and monday.  i think most of tomorrow (saturday) will be OK, but shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase starting late tomorrow afternoon.  the best potential for some significant rainfall will occur on sunday and monday.  this time of year it is hard to get long-lasting, all day rains... but i would put the chance of scattered showers and storms at around 60-70% during that period.

although our temps have recovered a bit, it will still be hard to get back up to april normals during the next several days.

FRIDAY NIGHT: occasional high clouds, otherwise fair and mild.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and pleasantly warm... but with a chance of a thundershower by late in the day.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a shower or thundershower possible.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler again.  good chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and rather cool, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with one or two showers still possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... pleasant temps.
high: 22C (71F)

a fine friday... (am.8.apr.11)>

it is 54F (12.2C) just before sunrise this morning, with mostly clear skies.  despite a few patches of high clouds, it looks like we are in line for lots of sunshine and some rapid warming this morning.

for the past 5 days in a row, high temps have remained below 70F (21C), which is well below normal for early april.  but today we stand a very good chance of breaking out of that.  significant warming is occurring both at the surface and aloft, ahead of the next storm system, so we should be able to enjoy some more comfortable temperatures... if only for a day or two.

yet another strong branch of the jetstream will bring in a brand new upper-level disturbance starting late tomorrow.  that means we'll see clouds thicken up again, and shower and thunderstorm chances increase... especially for sunday and monday.  there are indications that this system will have more moisture to work with than the previous two... so i don't think it is out of the question for us to pick up some fairly decent rainfall (greater than 1cm/0.40") during that 48 hour period.  temperatures will also drop again early next week.  as usual... stay tuned for updates as things evolve...

FRIDAY: mostly sunny this morning, partly cloudy during the afternoon.  a bit warmer...
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: periods of sunshine and clouds, with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.  turning cooler...
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with one or two lingering showers possible.
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, April 7, 2011

warming just a bit... (pm.7.apr.11)>

it's turning into a nice evening... after a day that has been pretty much equally split between sun and clouds.  the morning was glorious, but thick clouds developed over the mountains during the afternoon, which led to some random sprinkles and even a couple of rumbles of thunder between 2 and 4pm.  the high temp reached 66.4F (19.1C)... better than yesterday, but still a good 8F (4C) below normal for this time of year.

we should see another incremental improvement tomorrow... as temperatures warm a bit both at the surface and aloft.  the relationship between surface and upper-air temps will keep things marginally unstable, which means there could be another build-up of clouds over the mountains and a brief period of thunder/sprinkles during the afternoon.  also, batches of high clouds are showing up to our west, and those will dim the sunshine from time to time.

by saturday, we'll start to be influenced by the next disturbance in the jetstream pattern, which will gradually increase the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  right now, i think the best chance of rain will come between saturday evening and monday afternoon.  with the arrival of this next disturbance, i see little chance of our temps warming into the range of "normal" during the next several days.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy.  not as cool as last night.
low: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds (PM mountain thunder?)... a bit warmer.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and pleasant.  chance of a thundershower by late afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy, with a few showers and storms likely.  turning cooler again.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with a random shower possible.
high: 21C (69F)