the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Monday, May 20, 2013

heat wave is on... (am.20.may.13)>

The haze has really thickened up since last evening, but still there is sunshine early on this Monday morning, with continued low humidity (28%).  My overnight low here in the upper part of town was a warm 73.2F (22.9C).

It still looks like the chance of any measurable rainfall is very very low during the coming several days, as our huge ridge of summertime high pressure remains anchored from southern and central Pakistan into central and northern India.  The air mass is dry, stable, and increasingly hot -- and it's unlikely that there will be a significant pattern shift until maybe the latter part of the weekend at the earliest.

I picked a great time to be heading to Delhi (this evening), and as I mentioned last night, I'll be away until mid-July.  Looking forward to a long overdue trip to the US, but will miss keeping tabs on our always exciting transition from summer heat into the monsoon season!  You can still check here for occasional information and updates, though.

Stay cool if you can!

Sunday, May 19, 2013

another milestone... (pm.19.may.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 71.1F (21.7C)
Afternoon high temp: 91.4F (33.0C)
Rainfall: none

Although there are very few clouds around, it has become quite hazy late this afternoon and evening.  Visibility is terrible south and southwestward into the valley as we approach sunset.  We've reached another summer milestone today, as my high temp on Tushita Road in the upper part of town surpassed 90F (32C) for the first time this season -- temperatures of this calibur only occur on a handful of days each summer season here in McLeod, on average.
 
The mega summertime high pressure ridge which has been gradually building across the Indian subcontinent during the past several days made another major push northward today, allowing temperatures to leap even higher into the heat wave category across a large part of north India.  It's very warm in the upper atmosphere as well, creating enough stability to keep cloud development at a minimum even during the afternoon over the mountains.  There is a very minor disturbance moving from northern Pakistan into Kashmir this evening, but at this point, it looks like it will have little effect on us.

This dry and stable pattern should remain the dominant weather feature throughout most of the new week.  The moisture content of the air is very low, and should stay that way... and apart from the haze (which may increase during the coming days), we should continue to see plenty of sunshine.  I see nothing to suggest that our temps will retreat from these seasonal and yearly maximums until perhaps the weekend, at the earliest.

You can check the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab at the top of the page.

-By the way, in less than 24 hours, I'll begin a journey back to the US for the first time in more than 15 months, for my parents' 50th wedding anniversary celebrations in June. Just letting you know that daily weather updates won't be happening until I return in mid-July.-

now ninety... (am.19.may.13)>

It is yet another 100% sunny morning, and already very warm just after sunrise since the overnight low temp has been 71.1F (21.7C).  We know that summer is definitely in full swing when the overnight temperatures stay above 70F!  Humidity remains low -- at just 28%.

Yesterday's high of 87.8F (31.0C) was the new peak for the summer season and the year, but we're not nearly finished with this warming trend.  It's probably going to be 90F (32.2C) here in the upper part of town this afternoon, which means it will be very near 100F (38C) in Dharamsala, and around 107F (42C) in Kangra.  And this heat doesn't look like it's going to be a short-term affair.  Extended range computer model data and upper-air charts are showing continued strengthening of this massive, sprawling high pressure ridge from southern Pakistan into central and northern India all throughout the coming week.  It would take a rather strong upper-level disturbance coming in from the west or northwest to change the pattern significantly, and there is no evidence of that happening.

Right now it appears that the atmosphere will remain too stable to be able to produce any shower or thundershower action at all during the next several days, but mountain effects can be fickle and unpredictable, so always be prepared if you're venturing way up high, just in case.  It's really good that we picked up all that rainfall last weekend, because we may see very little for the remainder of this month.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for details for the coming 5 days.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

on the rise... (pm.18.may.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 68.5F (20.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 87.8F (31.0C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

This post is very late, as compared to usual, but I just wanted to share the fundamentals, and update the CURRENT FORECAST which is located on the tab above.

Our summertime high pressure ridge definitely claimed its territory today, providing almost perfectly stable conditions -- even the afternoon clouds over the highest peaks of the mountains were kept at a minimum.  Low humidity and strong sunshine boosted my high temp in the upper part of town to its warmest of the season and the year, but it looks very likely that we'll continue to see temperatures rise over the course of the next several days, as genuine summer heat wave conditions settle in across nearly all of northern India, apart from the highest elevations.

Unless there are some shocking and unforeseen events with regard to this weather pattern, we're in line for a dry and hot week ahead...

hottest yet... (am.18.may.13)>

We have full sunshine early on this Saturday morning.  Humidity is low, at 31%, and the overnight temp here in the upper part of town dipped to only 68.5F (20.3C), which is the mildest/warmest I've recorded this season.

Well, there's been plenty of advance warning about our building heat wave, as we've been watching this sprawling ridge of high pressure developing to our southwest for most of the past week.  Yesterday it finally poked into Himachal Pradesh, stabilizing our atmosphere after a rather long stretch of borderline unsettled weather, and allowing temperatures to rise to their warmest of 2013.  Very dry and warm air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will become established across northern India over the weekend, which should prevent any showers/thundershowers from popping up over the mountains, though it's always a good idea to be prepared for rogue development if you're heading up to the higher elevations.

Temps at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center usually reach or exceed 90F (32.2C) only a few times a year -- always between mid-May and mid-June.  The way things are looking now, it's likely we'll see at least a few days in a row of that kind of heat, with overnight temperatures becoming a bit on the uncomfortable side as well -- especially as we get into early next week.

If you're heading to HPCA stadium in Dharamsala for the IPL cricket match between Punjab Kings XI and the Mumbai Indians, expect the temperature for the coin toss and start of the match (3:30-4:00pm) to be around 96F (36C).  Sizzling, indeed.

The latest CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, May 17, 2013

sizzling weekend... (pm.17.may.13)>

Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
Afternoon high temp: 85.8F (29.9C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

Other than a few lingering cumulus clouds hovering along the mountains, skies are mostly clear just before sunset this evening.  My high temp on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center was the warmest of the season and the year, as sunshine and low humidity were the dominant features of the day.

After a week in which we've been battling enough occasional instability to keep us on edge with regard to sudden shower or thundershower development, it seems that we have indeed turned the corner today.  It appears that the advancing ridge of high pressure has finally warmed temperatures in the upper atmosphere enough to settle things down and prevent convection from taking place.  This huge bubble of high pressure will build in even more aggressively during the coming 48 hours, ushering in some truly hot summer weather which looks like it's going to hang around for the next week... at least.

Today's computer model projections are calling for 44C (111F) in Kangra by Sunday -- and I'll have to say that I don't remember higher temps being forecast for Kangra during the past few years.  We're talking about heat wave conditions setting up all across northern India, which could end up being the hottest we experience this entire season.  Keep on top of updates during the next couple of days as we watch just how high our temps might go!

For IPL fans... it should be dry and hot (95F/35C) tomorrow afternoon at 4pm as Punjab Kings XI take on the Mumbai Indians at HPCA stadium in Dharamsala.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST for McLeod Ganj on the tab at the top of the page.

himalayan summer... (am.17.may.13)>

*Update @ 2:45pm... The development of cumulus clouds over the mountains has been much less impressive thus far this afternoon, so it looks like we may get away without any thunder between now and sunset.  My high temp in the upper part of town has reached 84.4F (29.1C), and it could still rise a bit more during the next hour or two.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Our Friday morning is starting off with unlimited sunshine, apart from a bit of light haze.  Humidity stands at 34%, and I've recorded a pre-dawn low temperature of 65.3F (18.5C).  There has been a trace of rainfall during the past 24 hours, thanks to those brief light showers during the middle of yesterday afternoon.

The big question today is whether or not there will be enough instability again this afternoon to generate an isolated light thundershower over the mountains.  Although a mammoth ridge of high pressure is pushing in from the south and southwest, it's been hard to scour out the left-over pockets of colder air aloft which are hanging over the Dhauladhars.  Hazy sunshine should be the main theme today, just don't be surprised if there is a build-up of clouds and some rumbles of thunder again for a while this afternoon.

Temperatures will leap upward at least a couple of degrees today, and then rise even further over the weekend and into early next week as this big bubble of summertime high pressure finally establishes itself across a vast majority of the Indian subcontinent.  The air mass will be very dry for at least several days, with temps far beyond the warmest we've yet seen this year (85.6F/29.8C here at my location on the 10th of May).  Be sure to drink plenty of water, and always have reserves with you if you're going to be out in the sun for an extended length of time.

Details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

serious heat ahead... (pm.16.may.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 82.4F (28.0C)
Rainfall: trace

There are still some ominous-looking clouds clinging to the mountains this evening, with lots of hazy sun off to the west and south.  Morning sun gave way to rapid cloud development over the Dhauladhars by noon, with a few rumbles of thunder and some brief, light rain showers between about 2:00 and 4:00pm.  My high temperature (which occurred around 1:45pm) was the warmest I've recorded since last Friday.

We're having to work really hard for this big bubble of high pressure which is now attempting to build across northern India.  The northwest flow aloft is still delivering very weak disturbances containing little pockets of cold air up above 15,000ft -- which has kept the atmosphere moderately unstable at times.  Seems we've been stuck in a transition zone of sorts for most of this week, though temps have warmed considerably during the past 48 hours or so.  Mountain instability is a mysterious thing, so we'll have to watch what happens again tomorrow afternoon, otherwise I think we're very close to turning the corner and seeing a more stable air mass settle in.

This is exactly the time of year when we normally see a massive high pressure ridge form from the Arabian Sea eastward across most of central and northern India -- so our evolving scenario is on schedule.  Heat wave conditions are likely for several days in a row, starting on Saturday or Sunday, with the highest temps of 2013 (by far) likely across a wide area.  Be ready for the blast-furnace effect if you plan to be venturing downhill and/or onto the plains during the coming week.  At least rain chances should be close to nil for IPL cricket matches in Dharamsala tonight, and again on Saturday late afternoon/evening.

Your CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab above.

advancing heat... (am.16.may.13)>

*Update @ 4:00pm... There has been more thunder, along with some random very light showers during the past 40 mins or so.  The rain has been barely enough to wet the ground, and not enough to register a measurement in the rain gauge.  This mountain-induced instability should die out as we approach sunset.

*Update @ 2:28pm... Well, we've got our isolated thunder development over the Dhauladhars since just before 2:00pm.  I've got some sprinkles of rain here in the upper part of town.  Current temp: 81.1F (27.3C), humidity: 39%.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is 100% sunny early on this Thursday morning, with 34% humidity and temperatures climbing from a pre-sunrise low temperature of 64.6F (18.1C).  Those thundershowers in Pakistan last evening fizzled out as they moved eastward, and never made it into Himachal.

We're now right on the brink of a stretch of genuinely hot summertime weather, as the atmosphere continues to readjust to allow a massive ridge of high pressure to build across most of the Indian subcontinent.  There's still room for a little bit of instability today, so the risk of an isolated thundershower exists, though just barely.  It's looking good for the first IPL match between Punjab Kings XI and the Delhi Daredevils at HPCA stadium in Dharamsala starting at 8:00pm.

Although temperatures are already back to normal after our recent wet and cool spell, it looks like we've only just begun to warm up.  Heat wave conditions will be in full force over nearly all of northern India over the weekend into at least the middle of next week, and it still looks like we're in line for the hottest temps of the season even way up here on the front slopes of the Dhauladhars as we rise above 90F (32C) as early as Sunday.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

we're being watched... (pm.15.may.13)>

*Update @ 9:25pm... A batch of thundershowers is moving from east-central Pakistan into western Punjab right now.  If it holds together it could pass very near or just south of us between roughly midnight and 4-5am.  I guess most of us will be sleeping... but just a heads up, in case.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Afternoon high temp: 82.0F (27.8C)
Rainfall: none

This has been the epitome of the idyllic mid-May day, for sure.  Apart from a few clouds over the mountains during the afternoon, and even a rumble or two of thunder up there shortly after 4pm, we've had abundant sunshine, tolerable humidity (35-45%), and temperatures rebounding back to exactly where they should be this time of year.  My high temp of 82F (27.8C) was the warmest since last Friday, before we got hit with the rainy and cool weather over the weekend.

The atmosphere has been very much in a state of transition for a few days now -- shifting from an unseasonably wet and chilly situation to hot and dry conditions at the opposite end of the spectrum.  We'll remain in that transition zone for a bit longer, and I'm still apprehensive about the potential for a random thundershower firing up as much warmer air continues to move in throughout all layers of the atmosphere during the next 12-18 hours or so.  The chance of rain is small tonight into Thursday, but not zero.

It's quite fascinating to watch the progression of the weather charts through the weekend and even into the middle of next week.  High profile cricket matches on national and international TV will put Dharamsala in the spotlight during the coming several days, and it looks like we'll be in the midst of the hottest pattern we ever experience around here.  I still expect temperatures to be pushing 90F (32C) at my location in the upper part of McLeod, which means it's going to be hitting 100F (37C) in parts of Dharamsala, and maybe above 107F (42C) in Kangra -- especially by Sunday, Monday, and beyond...

CURRENT FORECAST updates are always available on the tab above.

step by step... (am.15.may.13)>

Looking just about perfect out there early on this Wednesday morning, with crystal clear skies and humidity at 47%.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 61.7F (16.5C), and there has been no rainfall since the trace amounts we received late yesterday morning.

This transition period is lasting a little longer than expected, as a northwesterly flow aloft threatens to bring at least one more weak upper-level disturbance through the area during the next 24 hours or so.  There's no evidence of any cloud or shower development right now, but the risk of a random/isolated shower or thundershower can't be completely ruled out today into Thursday.  Otherwise, expect a good amount of sunshine as temps climb up from the unseasonably cool levels we've been dealing with since the weekend.

We've been talking for a few days now about a massive high pressure ridge building into north India -- and it is still definitely on the way.  In fact, each run of the computer models is showing a more and more impressive bubble of extremely warm air; even heat wave conditions for areas downhill from us and on the plains.  Temperatures will be well beyond the previous warmest/hottest of the year across a vast area of north India starting on Friday, and continuing into early next week.  I'm expecting it to get very close to 90F (32C) at my location here at the top of McLeod, which usually happens only a couple of times per year.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

mild for may... (pm.14.may.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.8F (14.9C) -- 10:55am
High temp: 72.1F (22.3C) -- 4:50pm
Rainfall: trace

It's a beautiful and comfortably mild mid-May evening, with only a few lingering clouds as the sun heads for the western horizon.  I was worried that our day was on the verge of being ruined this morning, but the clouds and very light rain showers ended up being short-lived, with sunshine making an appearance just before noon.  Due to the late start, temps didn't warm up nearly as much as expected today, but it was extremely pleasant nonetheless.

Our west-northwest flow aloft delivered that very weak disturbance this morning, keeping us from making the big push into the stable and much warmer weather that we're anticipating.  I'm still a bit apprehensive about getting another one of those ripples moving through during the next 24 hours or so, but all the data points to nothing more than perhaps a brief, isolated shower.  The strongest high pressure ridge of the year will be building in as we get into the latter part of the week, so a more and more stable atmosphere is in our future, with rain chances continuing to diminish as the crowds arrive for IPL cricket matches on Thursday and Saturday.

We've got a very long way to go to reach the temperatures being projected over the weekend into early next week by computer models.  But at some point during the next couple of days we're going to see a dramatic warm-up, which could occur over the space of just 24-48 hours -- taking us well above normal for mid-May, and most likely higher than we've experienced this season and year so far.

The latest CURRENT FORECAST can always be found on the tab at the top of the page.

in transition... (am.14.may.13)>

*Update @ 3:45pm... Despite the drizzle, sprinkles, very light showers during the late morning, there wasn't enough to measure in the rain gauge.  The sun started poking through by noon, and it's been a nice afternoon.  Still, temps haven't warmed to what was expected... currently 71.2F (21.8C) here in the upper part of town.

*Update @ 9:03am... Clouds have thickened up since sunrise and the latest satellite images show a broken band of clouds and embedded showers from northern Pakistan into western Himachal.  Today's warm-up is in jeopardy if we don't get more than very limited sunshine.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have a mix of sun and some high clouds across the area early this morning.  My low temp here in the upper part of town was 60.3F (15.7C), and humidity is down a bit -- at 49%.

Current satellite pics are showing a large area of mainly high cloudiness moving in from northern Pakistan, in association with one last ripple of energy in the upper atmosphere which will be passing through.  This is why I've kept the slight chance of thundershowers in the forecast through today (Tues), since there may be enough moisture and lingering instability around to get something going.  It's hard to tell if there are any showers embedded in the area of cloudiness to our west, but we'll just have to keep an eye on it during the next several hours.

The most impressive ridge of summertime high pressure yet this season will build across Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India for the latter half of the week -- chasing away any lingering moisture and instability, and erasing rain chances almost completely.  Temperature profiles on computer model output are quite stunning for the coming weekend -- but then again, this is when we would expect to start experiencing the hottest weather of the entire year.  It looks like we'll be well in excess of 86F/30C here in McLeod, which means it's going to be scorching hot further down the hill...

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Monday, May 13, 2013

climbing temps... (pm.13.may.13)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
Afternoon high temp: 72.7F (22.6C)
Rainfall: none

We're in the midst of a gorgeous and comfortably mild May evening, with sun and only a few scattered clouds during this hour before sunset.  Although there was a moderate build-up of clouds over the mountains which began shortly before noon, I never saw any evidence of any thundershower action up there, and satellite pics only show very isolated development in the mountains from Kashmir into Uttarakhand.

The upper-level circulation and major instability that was in our vicinity over the weekend has rapidly given way to a flat west-northwest flow aloft.  This air mass is still rather moist -- humidity has been in the 50-65% range all day -- but the temperature battle between different levels of the atmosphere has quieted down, so things have been fairly stable today.  Apart from a random flare-up of thundershowers over the mountains during the next day or so, it looks like we're going to be entering a very quiet phase of weather which should last at least into the coming weekend.  High pressure will take control, keeping rain chances at a bare minimum from Wednesday forward.

It was warm in the direct sun today, but actually, our temperatures are running about 10F (4-5C) below normal for this stage of May.  This relatively mild weather is going to disappear quickly over the course of the coming few days, however.  Prepare for the warmest (hottest??) temps of the year setting in during the latter half of the week.  It could be pushing 100F (37C) in Dharamsala as all the IPL cricket action cranks up on Thursday...

The CURRENT FORECAST is always available on the tab at the top of the page.

positive changes... (am.13.may.13)>

It is sunny and bright on this Monday morning -- the humidity is still rather high at 65%, and I've recorded an overnight low of 55.0F (12.8C).  There has been no more rainfall to add to the huge 2.14" (5.4cm) total we received between late Friday night and Sunday afternoon.  Visitors who were here only for the weekend really got a raw deal, but it was actually very beneficial for us to get such a healthy rainfall at this point in the summer season.

Although it is beautiful early this morning, there is still quite a bit of leftover moisture in the air, with some minor ripples in the upper-level flow expected to pass through today into Tuesday.  That means we're not entirely out of the woods with regard to some shower or thundershower development, especially over the mountains during the mid-day into the early evening hours.  Conditions should be vastly improved compared to what we've recently experienced, just keep in mind the risk of a sudden thundershower.  Gradually drier and more stable air will be arriving as the week progresses, however, so rain chances should diminish almost altogether by the latter part of the week.

Temperatures the last two days have been more in line with March than May, but we'll begin a rebound today that will lead to very warm and even hot weather as the week progresses.  A massive high pressure ridge will be in place by Thursday which will provide us with the highest temps of the season and the year thus far...

Your CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

may or march?... (pm.12.may.13)>

*Update @ 9:35pm... The atmosphere has stabilized very rapidly in the last few hours.  Looks like we could have a quiet and dry night ahead.  It's very cool, though -- current temp is 55.9F (13.3C), but it will probably remain steady or even slowly rise overnight.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's stats (updated at 8:03pm):

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C) -- 2:35pm
High temp: 62.6F (17.0C) -- shortly after midnight
24 hour rainfall: 0.82" (2.1cm) -- 6pm Sat to 6pm Sun
Total rainfall since Friday night: 2.14" (5.4cm)

The nicest weather of the entire day is happening during this hour before sunset, as the rain has stopped and clouds are breaking up a bit.  We had nearly continuous light rain until about 3:30pm, which kept our temperatures way way way below normal for the middle of May.  I haven't checked all of my records yet, but I have a hard time remembering such a cold day so deep into the summer season.  A lot of new snow has fallen on the Dhauladhars since yesterday afternoon, which is also unusual for this time of year.

The culprit for this unseasonably cold and wet weather is an upper-level disturbance which has been moving very slowly across the western Himalayan region during the past 48 hours or so.  Its center of circulation has weakened considerably today, and will flatten out completely during the next 24 hours as it shifts further to the east.  That means we'll see a general improvement during the next day or two, as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to build just to our west over Afghanistan and Pakistan.  There's still a decent chance of a round or two of thundershowers between tonight and Tuesday, but the atmosphere should become more and more stable, while drier air begins to filter in from the west-northwest.

Temperatures are ridiculously below normal right now, but all indicators point toward an aggressive warming trend kicking in as early as tomorrow, and continuing throughout the coming week.  It's still looking hot and dry and definitely summery by the time the first IPL cricket match kicks off at HPCA Stadium in Dharamsala on Thursday evening.

The CURRENT FORECAST for the next five days can be found on the tab above.

wet and chilly... (am.12.may.13)>

*Update @ 2:30pm... Have just had a chance to check on satellite pics and the latest data -- none of which is encouraging at all.  We've had nearly continuous light rain all day, bringing my total rainfall to 2.04" (5.2cm) since the first showers late Friday night.  Temperatures have gone nowhere.  It's currently 53.8F (12.1C), which is unbelievably cold for this time of year. I'll be very surprised if there is much improvement before tonight.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The wind has been howling early this morning, with cloudy skies, some light rain showers, and even a couple of rumbles of thunder in the past hour.  I've recorded another 0.40" (1.0cm) of rain overnight, bringing the total since late Friday night up to 1.72" (4.4cm) here at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.  It's unseasonably chilly as well -- the low temp this morning has been 52.7F (11.5C), though it's currently almost 58F (14C).

The upper-level disturbance that began affecting northern India on Friday evening is obviously still very much with us.  This is a very dynamic system, with a large pool of unusually cold air aloft -- some of which is being delivered to the surface levels, thanks to very regular waves of showers and thundershowers.  The center of circulation has moved very little in the past 18 hours or so, and is still located between east-central Pakistan and western Himachal.  Although it is already showing signs of weakening significantly, the cold air aloft combined with moisture that has been pulled into the circulation is going to keep our atmosphere unstable today (Sun), providing us with yet more shower and thundershower action.  I'm hopeful that there will be at least a bit of sunshine before the end of the day, otherwise it's going to be difficult for us to warm up much.

Monday will be a day of transition -- from our cool and wet weekend into a drier and much warmer week ahead.  The upper-air pattern will be shifting drastically by Tuesday, with a much more stable west-northwest flow developing, and temperatures warming rapidly throughout all layers of the atmosphere.  I know it's hard to fathom based on what's going on outside right now, but we should see temperatures back above mid-May normals by the middle of the week!

The CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, May 11, 2013

stormy spell... (pm.11.may.13)>

*Update @ 8:25pm... This power cut all over Mcleod Ganj is now getting close to 7.5 hours... my laptop battery is nearly fried.  There have been only a few random light showers this evening, but we could get hit again with something more significant overnight.  Currently: 61.7F (16.5C), humidity: 50%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 49.6F (9.8C) -- 1:15pm
High temp: 70.9F (21.6C) -- 9:40am
Rainfall: 1.32" (3.4cm) -- 24 hours ending at 6pm

We have partly cloudy skies just before sunset this evening, after a very active and interesting day.  Temperatures have been all over the place, in response to glimpses of sun vs. downpours of rain, but were way cooler than we've seen during the past several days.  In fact, that low temp (above) which occurred in the midst of heavy rain and hail just after 1:00pm is one of the coldest May temperatures I can remember.  It's a little late to be getting a healthy new dose of snow up on the Dhauladhars, but that's exactly what happened this afternoon.

Today's rainfall -- the vast majority of which happened between 12:30pm and 4:00pm -- was the most I've recorded in a single event since way back on the 24th of March, and takes us more than half-way to the normal amount for the entire month of May.

The center of the upper-level disturbance responsible for this wet and stormy weather is still lingering over east-central Pakistan, very close to Lahore.  It has already over-performed in terms of rain production, but it looks like there will be more to come.  The latest satellite pics show new thunderstorm development to our south and west over Punjab during the past couple of hours, which will be moving in our direction.  Occasional showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast tomorrow (Sun) as well, with chances gradually diminishing starting on Monday, as this system finally flattens out and moves off to the east.

Dramatic improvement should kick in by Tuesday, with a steady trend toward warmer and drier weather lasting though next weekend.  Currently, it's looking dry and hot in Dharamsala for the IPL cricket matches on Thursday and Saturday.

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

the wild side... (am.11.may.13)>

*Update @ 3:43pm...  My rain gauge is now showing 1.16" (2.9cm) since about 12:30pm.  It's still raining lightly, but the widespread shower/thunderstorm action seems to be diminishing for now.  Current temp: 60.1F (15.6C).

*Update @ 2:13pm... Thunder and a few light showers started up again just after 12:30pm, with a major downpour and even some small hail between about 1:00 and 1:30pm.  Light to moderate rain is still going on.  Just arrived home to find 0.90" (2.2cm) in the rain gauge here in the upper part of town.  Satellite pics show us on the northwest edge of a massive area of thunderstorms which is covering nearly all of Himachal -- movement of all of this is hard to determine, as the upper-level circulation is basically right overhead right now.  And talk about natural air conditioning: my thermometer shows 54.5F (12.5C), which is about 30F/17C cooler than this time yesterday afternoon!

*Update @ 9:42am... There are thick clouds around at the moment, but also a few glimpses of sun breaking through.  Scattered thunderstorms could redevelop at any time, as this upper-level disturbance/circulation moves into Punjab in the next few hours.  Current temp: 70.9F (21.6C), humidity: 39%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well that was a rude awakening, after the serene summer weather of the past several days.  A large batch of thunderstorms which developed last evening over Punjab lifted northeastward overnight, providing us with thunder, lightning, very strong wind gusts, and 0.16" (4mm) of rain.  Very warm temps late last evening dropped like a rock during the showers and wind -- I'm recording a low temp of 57.6F (14.2C) which occurred very briefly before the thermometer rebounded to 68F (20C) at 7am.

The center of a rather tightly wound upper-level disturbance is very close to the Pakistan/Punjab border early this morning, and will move into northern India today, where it will stall out and gradually weaken.  This will keep our atmosphere unstable through the entire weekend, with the potential for shower and/or thunderstorm development at virtually any time of the day or night.  Keep a close eye on rapidly changing conditions if you have outdoor plans -- there should be some stretches of good weather as well, just be ready to run for shelter if/when necessary.

The moisture content of this air mass is still marginal at best, but computer models are still hinting at some significant rainfall totals before the weekend is finished -- on the order of 3/4" (2cm) perhaps.  A decent rainfall is always a very precious thing during the middle of the pre-monsoon dry season.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler both today and Sunday than they've been the last four or five days, so we'll get to enjoy a bit of natural air conditioning for a brief spell.... before summer temps creep back in next week.

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab above -- and I'll do my best to post updates if/when crazy weather redevelops.

Friday, May 10, 2013

turbulence ahead... (pm.10.may.13)>

*Update @ 9:52pm... Thunder south and southwest.  Current temp: 74F (23.3C).  Humidity slightly up.

*Update @ 7:42pm... A large area of thunderstorms has erupted from east-central Pakistan into southwestern Punjab this evening.  The upper-level flow will steer this stuff in our direction during the next several hours, but there's no certainty that it will hold together overnight.  It's still very dry here -- humidity just 29%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 67.5F (19.7C)
Afternoon high temp: 85.6F (29.8C) -- warmest of 2013!
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy and still quite warm this evening just before sunset, after yet another 'new warmest day of the year' -- which seems to have occurred almost everyday this week.  We've had a four-day run of above normal early May temperatures, with humidity barely deviating from the 25-35% range.  The sunshine has also been a very reliable companion since Tuesday.

Nevertheless, we are on the brink of a major shift in the overall weather pattern this weekend, which will likely bring some noticeable changes.  The high pressure ridge which has been anchored over northern India since Tuesday is already giving way to a fairly strong upper-level disturbance now centered over extreme western Pakistan.  This disturbance will move into Punjab tomorrow morning, and then stall out as its circulation gradually weakens over the weekend.  Moisture/humidity levels will increase and temperatures in the higher levels of the atmosphere will drop during over the course of the coming 36-48 hours, which should create a good amount of instability -- leading to an increasing chance of at least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

The computer model data is looking more favorable for some significant rainfall in the time frame from tonight through Sunday evening -- perhaps between 0.5-1.0" (1-2.5cm)??  If that happens, it would be the most rain we've received since the 21st of April.

Temperatures will cool of considerably if that rain does indeed materialize -- but should bounce back quickly by early next week before the onslaught of IPL VIPs begin to arrive for our yearly May cricket ritual...

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

something brewing... (am.10.may.13)>

It's been another calm, quiet and very mild night, with a low temperature of 67.5F (19.7C) -- that's yet another in a string of 'new warmest' of the season.  This morning we have sunshine and just a few high clouds with temps already warming above 70F, as humidity continues to hover near 30%.

The high pressure ridge which has been controlling our weather for most of this week will finally begin to relinquish that control during the next 12-18 hours or so.  A rather expansive upper-level disturbance over Afghanistan and western Pakistan this morning will shift eastward and move across northern India over the weekend, putting an end to our recent streak of dry and quiet conditions.  We'll see a gradual increase in the moisture content of the air, while colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere seeps in from the northwest.  That points toward an increasingly unstable air mass which could produce at least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms between tonight (Fri) and Sunday evening.  It's not going to be a total wash-out of a weekend, by any means, but definitely be prepared for the rain potential.

Temperatures today will be above normal for early May, again -- for the fourth day in a row -- but if we do manage to get some significant rainfall over the weekend, those temps will take a hit.  We may drop a bit below seasonal norms until a rebound kicks in by Monday and Tuesday of next week.  Check back here for updates over the weekend as we keep an eye on developments.

Your CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

super fine... (pm.09.may.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
Afternoon high temp: 85.3F (29.6C) -- warmest of 2013!
Rainfall: none

We have sunshine and some patches of thin, high clouds across the area this evening as sunset approaches.  With bright sun all day, very low humidity and summertime warmth, today has been about as perfect as a day in May could be.  It would be nice to be able to package one of these and open it up during the middle of monsoon season, or during the gray and wet days of the late winter season.  My high temp in the upper part of town was yet another new high for the year, by the way.

A sprawling area of high pressure in the upper-atmosphere has been responsible for our recent fantastic early summer weather conditions -- we've had three straight days of quiet stability.  It still looks like most of tomorrow (Fri) will be fine, but the upper-level disturbance we've been waiting for is going to be easing in from the west by tomorrow night, providing us with some significant changes over the weekend.  The best chance of a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be between Friday night and Sunday evening, as some more moist air gets pulled northward while colder air arrives in the higher levels.  If things come together just right, we could have some rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch (1cm+).

Rain chances will diminish starting on Monday, but at this point, it appears that next week might not be as stable and uneventful as this week has been.  A shot of cooler air over the weekend will give way to warming temps once again after this system makes its exit though.  Due to Indian Premier League cricket matches in Dharamsala late next week, we're on the verge of the biggest tourist influx of the year, so it will be nice if the weather behaves...

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

strong sunshine... (am.09.may.13)>

Sunshine is unhindered early this morning, and temperatures are already on their way up after an overnight low of 65.3F (18.5C).  Humidity has been very steady for the last few days -- remaining very close to 30%.

A big bubble of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across northern India, keeping us high and dry, and providing us with these very summer-like temps.  Yesterday's high of 84.7F (29.3C) was the warmest of the season and the year, and there's a pretty good chance we'll go even a bit higher than that today.  This stable air mass should allow abundant sunshine, but there will likely be some afternoon cumulus build-up over the mountains, though any thundershower development up there will be only very random and isolated.

Most of Friday should be quiet as well, but by late in the day, we'll start to feel the effects of an upper-level system which will be our main weather influencer over the weekend into early next week.  A series of disturbances aloft, along with the arrival of colder air in the upper atmosphere will lead to a better chance of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity -- with the best potential for rain coming between Friday night and Sunday, the way it looks now.  We'll also lose these very warm temperatures for a few days, with high temps dropping back a bit below normal until perhaps Tuesday of next week.

The CURRENT FORECAST is always available on the tab above.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

full-on summer... (pm.08.may.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 84.7F (29.3C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

Today's high temp was another new high for the season and the year, as the warmest air mass of 2013 remains sprawled across northern India.  It is partly cloudy as we approach sunset this evening after a day dominated by sunshine and low humidity once again.

A broad area of high pressure from the surface into the upper atmosphere will continue to be the main weather feature for another 36 hours or so, keeping us stable, dry and very warm.  Even the PM thunder development over the mountains has been suppressed the last couple of days.  The average high temp for this stage of May is about 80-81F (27C), but we should stay warmer than that through Friday.

It looks like changes are still on the way for the weekend, however.  A rather complex series of upper-level disturbances will move across the western Himalayas between late Friday and Monday, bringing colder air aloft which will destabilize the atmosphere enough to trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Right now it looks like the best chance of those thunderstorms would be between Friday night and Sunday, with temperatures expected to drop several degrees in response.  Check back here as we watch how all of that evolves.

Your CURRENT FORECAST is on the tab at the top of the page.

temps stay up... (am.08.may.13)>

A few patches of high clouds are drifting through early this morning, but we're also getting some good glimpses of sun.  It's been a quiet, dry and very mild night -- my low temperature here in the upper part of town was 66.7F (19.3C), which is the warmest I've recorded this year.  Humidity has been very steady lately at around 30%.

High pressure is the dominant weather feature across northern India, providing generally stable and dry conditions, along with the warmest temps of the season thus far.  Typically, the warmest weather of the entire year occurs here in the Dharamsala area between the middle of May and about the third week of June, so the building heat is to be expected.  Keep in mind the off-chance of an isolated thundershower during the next couple of afternoons, mainly in the vicinity of the mountains, otherwise we should be enjoying sunny to partly cloudy skies.

There is a rather significant change in the weather pattern on the way for the weekend, however.  An broad upper-level disturbance will replace the current stable high pressure system over northern India, bringing in unsettled conditions in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  It also looks like we'll cool off a few degrees, before the heat starts to build again early next week.

The latest CURRENT FORECAST can always be found on the tab above.

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

season's high... (pm.07.may.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 82.8F (28.2C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

The warmest day of the year is coming to a close, with a mix of sunshine and just a few clouds around the area this evening.  There was a pretty healthy build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon, but it didn't last very long, as the humidity never rose above 35% all day.

A moderately stable air mass is in place across most of northern India, and should hold on for the next couple of days, providing us with more generally quiet and summer-like weather conditions.  Today's high temp was slightly above normal for early May, and unless we get surprised by lots of cloudiness and an extended period of thundershowers, these unseasonably warm temperatures will remain with us.  We will have to watch the mountains during the PM hours for the potential of a random thundershower, otherwise it should remain dry through Thursday.

There will be a major pattern shift beginning on Friday, however, which could bring us a better chance of some significant shower and thunderstorm action over the weekend.  A disturbed upper-level pattern looks like it's going to settle over the western Himalayan region for a few days... so check back here for the latest weekend forecast updates.

As always, your CURRENT FORECAST for the next five days can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

hazy and warm... (am.07.may.13)>

This Tuesday morning is featuring a mix of sun, haze, and a few high clouds, with humidity at 35%.  The low temperature just before sunrise was a mild 64.6F (18.1C), and there was no rainfall overnight.

A ridge of high pressure has now grabbed ahold of northern India, and should dominate the weather pattern for the next three days or so.  Although we'll still have to be on the lookout for an isolated shower or thundershower over the mountains during mainly the afternoon hours, it looks like hazy sunshine and occasional high clouds will be the theme, allowing temperatures to rise above 80F again, after a respite of a couple of days.  In fact, if clouds don't play spoiler, we'll likely see the highest temps of the season (so far) between today (Tue) and Thursday.

By Friday, the next upper-level system will start to move into northwest India, just in time to bring an increasing chance of some significant shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend.  May is the fourth driest month of the year, with 2.3" (5.9cm) of rain on average -- that's not a lot, but we can expect at least a few healthy periods of rain this month if we expect to reach that total.

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Monday, May 6, 2013

not much drama... (pm.06.may.13)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
Afternoon high temp: 78.8F (26.0C)
Rainfall: 0.08" (2mm) -- before 3:00am

Skies are partly cloudy before sunset this evening, with breezy conditions at the moment and a random sprinkle of rain here and there during the past hour.  We've had a nearly equal split between clouds and sun today, with just a couple of raindrops during the afternoon which didn't even come close to wetting the ground.  Temperatures were very close to normal for the first week of May.

The upper-level disturbance determining our weather conditions since early Sunday morning continues to lessen its influence on us, but was still able to stir up some widely scattered showers and thundershowers from Kashmir into extreme western Nepal today.  With its departure will come a building ridge of high pressure which will hang around through Thursday, providing generally stable conditions which will include a greater percentage of sunshine along with even warmer temperatures.  There will still be a risk of a bit of PM thundershower development over the mountains, but it shouldn't have much of an effect on us.

There will be another turn to more unsettled weather starting on Friday, and continuing through most of the weekend.  Although there's still not a great deal of moisture available, we'll see an increasing chance of a few showers and thundershowers, along with slightly cooler temps for at least a couple of days.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

a mixed bag... (am.06.may.13)>

It's partly cloudy and comfortably mild early on this Monday morning, but yesterday's changeable and active weather continued into the very early morning hours, with some thunder, gusty winds and even 0.08" (2mm) of rain.  I was surprised to see that amount in the rain gauge this morning -- although still not much to get excited about, it was at least enough to measure, unlike the couple of brief showers we had on Sunday.  Temperatures fluctuated wildly overnight, with the low dipping to 57.0F (13.9C) during the rain shower, but then rising again to 66.8F (19.3C) just before sunrise.  Humidity has also been all over the place -- between 30% and 76%.

The upper-level disturbance responsible for the unsettled conditions of the past 24 hours has weakened early this morning as it moves off to the east.  There may yet be enough instability to get a light thundershower going at some point today, but the trend will be toward more stable conditions by Tuesday.  A ridge of high pressure is already trying to build across northwest India in the wake of this recent disturbance, which will provide generally quiet weather for the majority of this week, while allowing plenty of warm air to flow into our area.  Temperatures, especially between Tuesday and Friday, will be at their warmest of the season thus far.

A new upper-level disturbance is scheduled to arrive sometime on Friday, bringing another increase in the chance of some scattered thundershowers, which could last through at least the first part of the weekend.  There's plenty of time to keep an eye on how that evolves...

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

only brief showers... (pm.05.may.13)>

*Update @ 7:52pm... The temperature dipped to our low of the day (see below) at 5:25pm during that brief shower, but has recovered to 70F as of now -- an indication of how topsy-turvy our atmosphere is, thanks to the disturbance passing overhead.  Humidity spiked at 57% during the shower, but has dropped again to 30%.  Despite the dynamic energy passing through, this air mass is just too dry to provide us with significant rainfall.

--------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C) -- 5:25pm (updated)
High temp: 77.0F (25.0C) -- 3:05pm
Rainfall: trace

It's mostly cloudy and breezy this evening, as widely scattered thundershowers gradually dissipate.  We've had a lot of variety today, with clouds alternating with short stints of sunshine, and a few very brief periods of thunder and some very light sprinkles and showers.  The most recent occurred just before 5:30pm, but didn't last long enough to do anything more than wet the pavement.  As anticipated, the rainfall today has not been enough to even register in the rain gauge.

A disturbance in the upper atmosphere is to blame for today's unsettled conditions.  A fairly strong circulation aloft has provided the "lift" necessary to create instability, but there's simply not enough moisture available to give us more than these brief, light sprinkles and showers.  There's still a chance of some hit-and-miss showers through tomorrow (Mon), but I still don't expect any significant rainfall amounts... really not even enough to settle the dust for long.

Our warming trend has stalled for the moment, but it looks very likely that it will resume in earnest by Tuesday, and continue through Thursday.  A ridge of high pressure during that time frame will protect us from any shower action, but a new upper-level disturbance is expected to arrive on Friday, increasing the chance of yet another round of mainly light showers and/or thundershowers next weekend.  In the meantime, temperatures should balance out near to slightly above normal for early May.

The CURRENT FORECAST is always available on the tab above.

minimal rain risk... (am.05.may.13)>

*Update @ 8:12am... We're getting a few rumbles of thunder.  It will be interesting to see if even a light shower can be squeezed out of this very dry air mass.  Currently: 72.7F (22.6C), humidity: 31%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last night was the warmest night of the year -- by far.  I recorded an early morning low temp of 68.2F (20.1C), which is actually closer to normal for the end of May.  We've had occasional clouds overnight and a period or two of gusty winds, as humidity has remained very close to 30%.

Some weak disturbances in the upper-atmosphere have begun to ripple across northern India, and that's the reason for the increased cloudiness this morning.  However, there is still a serious lack of moisture available to fuel any significant showers or thundershowers, despite the modest instability.  There is at least a mentionable chance of a period of showers today (Sun) into Monday, but I'm still skeptical about coming up with enough to measure in the rain gauge.  Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine as this system moves through.

A rather strong ridge of early summer high pressure will dominate our weather pattern starting on Tuesday.  This is going to provide temperatures a couple of degrees above normal for early May, while keeping rain chances at a bare minimum.  An increasingly stagnant air mass will be responsible for a lot of haze and trapped smoke/pollution as the week goes on.  This is the price we pay for the very low humidity and lack of significant rainfall.

Get your CURRENT FORECAST on the tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

normal and above... (pm.04.may.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
Afternoon high temp: 81.7F (27.6C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

There are many patches of mid-level clouds across the area this evening, but sunshine was in charge for most of the day, helping boost my high temp in the upper part of town to its warmest of the season and the year.  Humidity has remained very low all day -- mainly in the 25-35% range.

Well if there was any doubt that real summertime weather would ever arrive this year, those doubts have been erased today.  A broad area of very warm air covers most of northern India... not only at the surface, but into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere as well.  There has only been marginal instability in a few isolated spots along the mountains today, and the lack of moisture has prevented any significant shower development, even in the higher elevations.  We will have to watch what happens as an upper-level disturbance drifts through between tomorrow (Sun) and Monday afternoon, but I'll be very surprised if it can stir up enough shower activity to do anything more than perhaps wet the rain gauge a little.

By Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will re-establish itself across the western Himalayan region, providing generally stable, dry and unseasonably warm temperatures for the remainder of the week.  Without a good rainfall, our air mass is going to become increasingly hazy and dusty over the course of the next several days.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

eighty plus... (am.04.may.13)>

We have sunshine and some light haze early on this Saturday morning.  Humidity is just 32%, and I've recorded an overnight low of 63.3F (17.4C) - which is the new warmest of the season.

It looks nearly for certain that the temperature will hit 80F here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center this afternoon, for the first time this year.  That means, of course, that it's going to be plain HOT further down the hill in Dharamsala, and especially in Kangra, where temps will be pushing 100F (37C) today.  By the way, the LOCAL TEMPS tab at the top of the page gives a general guide to the variation in temps at different locations around our area, in case you haven't checked it out before.

The only potential interruption to the sunshine and warmth will be some instability-induced clouds over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and perhaps an isolated thundershower both tomorrow (Sun) afternoon and on Monday, as a weak disturbance passes through.  This disturbance will have very little moisture to work with so I'm not expecting a very good chance of measurable rainfall at this point.  Still, it's something to keep an eye on in the midst of all the early summertime activities going on.

It still looks like we'll be experiencing above normal early May temps all the way into at least the middle of next week -- with hazy sun and occasional clouds, but only very small chances of any significant rainfall.

The CURRENT FORECAST can always be found on the tab above.

Friday, May 3, 2013

warm and dry... (pm.03.may.13)>

Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Afternoon high temp: 79.3F (26.3C)
Rainfall: none

We have mostly clear skies across the area this evening, after what has been perhaps our most summer-like day of the season.  Despite a bit of a build-up of rather flat cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, the sunshine was firmly in control, humidity very low (25-38%), and temperatures matching the warmest of 2013, which just occurred on Wednesday.

Today has been a good example of what late April and early May are supposed to be like -- with a relatively stable, dry and warm air mass firmly in place all across the western Himalayan region.  This kind of day has been fairly rare this season, but it's possible that we may be seeing more of these in the near future.  Warming will continue from the surface into the higher levels of the atmosphere during the next couple of days, while humidity remains very low.  But -- there is a weak and disorganized upper-level disturbance expected to drift across northern India on Sunday and Monday which, combined with a slight increase in moisture, could produce a couple of random showers or thundershowers.  If our recent track record is any indication, this air mass isn't going to yield significant rainfall, but keep in mind that minor potential -- just in case.

As I've been mentioning, the latest computer model data is projecting 40C+ (104F+) for Kangra, starting on Sunday and lasting into at least the middle of next week.  This translates into temps in the low-mid 80s(F) for us way up here at 1800m/6000ft -- and that's actually a bit above normal for this early in the month of May.  Stay tuned...

The latest CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

signs of summer... (am.03.may.13)>

Apart from some light haze, it is absolutely clear and sunny early this Friday morning.  The humidity reading is 37%, and I've recorded an overnight low temp of 60.6F (15.9C) here on Tushita Road in the upper part of town.

A fine early summer type of weather pattern is now developing across northern India, and looks like it will hold on for several days at least.  Gradual warming will be occurring not only at the surface, but in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere as well.  There could still be a period of instability during the afternoon hours as the very warm air at the surface rises into comparatively colder air aloft along/over the mountains, but with this dry air mass, it's going to be hard to get any measurable rainfall going -- as we've already seen during the past week.  There could be a little more hefty upper-level disturbance passing by late Sunday into Monday, but even then, I think our rain chances will remain small.

We seem to be poised on the verge of breaking into the 80F+ range for the first time this season during the coming few days, with genuinely HOT weather conditions expected just downhill from us.  Welcome to summer!!

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.
 

Thursday, May 2, 2013

warming to resume... (pm.02.may.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: trace

Our sky has been clearing out rapidly as sunset approaches this evening, after a pretty major build-up of clouds this afternoon which led to a couple of sprinkles of rain in some parts of town.  There wasn't enough to measure in the rain gauge, as has been the case for many days now.  My high temp in the upper part of town wasn't as warm as yesterday, but still only a couple of degrees (F) below normal for early May.

The upper-level circulation which was overhead this morning has been moving slowly to the east all day, but lingering cold air up there above 15,000ft or so has kept us unstable enough for those random light showers during the PM.  We're now poised to see a gradual warming trend throughout all layers of the atmosphere over the weekend into early next week.  Our atmosphere should be stable for the most part, although daytime heating could trigger an isolated shower or thundershower over the mountains on nearly any afternoon -- be prepared for that if you plan to be heading uphill.  

Computer models this evening are hinting at the first 40C (104F) temps of the season in Kangra by Sunday and Monday.  Every year, this event makes an impression on me, as it tends to be an indication that full-on summer has indeed arrived.  Of course it won't be nearly that hot up here in McLeod, but we're still looking at our warmest temps of the season just around the corner.

Check the tab on the top of the page for your CURRENT FORECAST.

a bit unstable... (am.02.may.13)>

It is partly to mostly cloudy at sunrise on this Thursday morning.  My overnight low temperature here in the upper part of town was 61.3F (16.3C), and humidity has remained consistently in the 35-40% range.  There has only been a trace of rain during the past 24 hours at my location, and i doubt if there has been anything measurable around the area.

A rapidly dying upper-level disturbance is located pretty much right overhead this morning -- its associated pool of much colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere being responsible for the clumps of clouds still evident.  What's left of this system will continue moving off to the east today, but the lingering colder air aloft combined with (comparatively) much warmer air at the surface will cause enough instability to keep the risk of a random shower or thundershower mainly over the mountains.  As we've seen recently, this air mass is just too dry to produce much in the way of measurable rainfall, but the risk exists nonetheless.

Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees lower than yesterday's highest of the season (and the year), but a large bubble of very warm air will be building across northern India during the next several days.  With a dry and generally stable air mass in place, we should be seeing truly summer-like conditions over the weekend into early next week -- but that's exactly what we'd expect as May unfolds...

Your CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

new warmest... (pm.01.may.13)>

*Update @ 7:55pm... I've just updated today's recorded high temp, since it rose even further since I'd last checked it during the early afternoon.  79.3F (26.3C) at my location means well above 80F in lower parts of McLeod, and near 90F in Dharamsala.  Although we've got a very unstable atmosphere overhead this evening, humidity of just 38% precludes rain development, at least for now.  I'm still a little concerned about what might happen overnight...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 79.3F (26.3C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: trace

It's mostly cloudy as sunset approaches on this first evening of the new month, with a couple of random sprinkles and a breeze kicking up at times.  The sky has looked threatening since mid-afternoon, but here in town there has been no measurable rainfall as of 6:00pm.  The biggest news today (other than the 5.8 earthquake that rattled us at 12:27pm) is the fact that the high temperature was the warmest of the season, and the warmest of 2013 thus far.

The instability that we've been waiting for for the last two or three days finally materialized this afternoon, as much colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere began to move into northern India.  This is what triggered the widespread cloud development along the mountains -- but the severe lack of low-level moisture prevented the unstable conditions from translating into any kind of significant rainfall.  As that colder air aloft continues to filter in overnight we could see a couple of scattered showers and thundershowers, but I'm going to be very surprised if we can get anything noteworthy in the rain gauge.  This whole system has fallen way below expectations, but I have yet to hear a single complaint.!

Thursday will likely feature some afternoon cloud development over the mountains, with the possibility of an isolated thundershower somewhere in the area -- otherwise it looks like we're in for a very nice stretch of weather as we head through the weekend into early next week.  Tomorrow (Thu) and Friday won't be quite as warm as today, but a dry and generally stable air mass will lend itself to summer-like temperatures from Saturday forward.

Check the tab above for the latest CURRENT FORECAST.

may day... (am.01.may.13)>

The first morning of May has dawned with a mostly sunny sky, low humidity (36%), and the mildest early morning temperatures of the season.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town was 62.8F (17.1C), and once again, there has been no rainfall to report.

A very slow-moving upper-level disturbance and circulation is located over extreme northern Pakistan, but has still not really made its presence known here in our neighborhood.  The atmosphere has remained generally stable and very dry during the past few days, despite expectations of an increasing chance of some showers and thunderstorms.  There's still a chance of some development, however, as colder air aloft sinks into northern India today and tonight, riding over the top of much warmer air at the surface.  The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the lack of available moisture -- some of the driest air of this spring/early summer season is pretty well established across northwest India right now, so even if we get enough instability to trigger some thunderstorms, rainfall amounts shouldn't be much to get excited about.

Lingering instability on Thursday could lead to some afternoon thunder development over the mountains, but a dry, generally stable and increasingly warm scenario is expected as we move into the weekend.  It's starting to look and feel like summer is definitely getting under way.

Your CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.