Thursday, May 16, 2013

serious heat ahead... (pm.16.may.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 82.4F (28.0C)
Rainfall: trace

There are still some ominous-looking clouds clinging to the mountains this evening, with lots of hazy sun off to the west and south.  Morning sun gave way to rapid cloud development over the Dhauladhars by noon, with a few rumbles of thunder and some brief, light rain showers between about 2:00 and 4:00pm.  My high temperature (which occurred around 1:45pm) was the warmest I've recorded since last Friday.

We're having to work really hard for this big bubble of high pressure which is now attempting to build across northern India.  The northwest flow aloft is still delivering very weak disturbances containing little pockets of cold air up above 15,000ft -- which has kept the atmosphere moderately unstable at times.  Seems we've been stuck in a transition zone of sorts for most of this week, though temps have warmed considerably during the past 48 hours or so.  Mountain instability is a mysterious thing, so we'll have to watch what happens again tomorrow afternoon, otherwise I think we're very close to turning the corner and seeing a more stable air mass settle in.

This is exactly the time of year when we normally see a massive high pressure ridge form from the Arabian Sea eastward across most of central and northern India -- so our evolving scenario is on schedule.  Heat wave conditions are likely for several days in a row, starting on Saturday or Sunday, with the highest temps of 2013 (by far) likely across a wide area.  Be ready for the blast-furnace effect if you plan to be venturing downhill and/or onto the plains during the coming week.  At least rain chances should be close to nil for IPL cricket matches in Dharamsala tonight, and again on Saturday late afternoon/evening.

Your CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab above.