Thursday, January 17, 2019

mild, with increasing clouds... (pm.17.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 53.3ºF (11.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

It's been a gorgeous mid-January, mid-winter day, with tons of sunshine and only a few PM mountain cumulus clouds.  Temperatures are running just a bit above normal for the season.

Although we're going to be seeing an increase in mainly high cloudiness starting tomorrow (Fri), a milder airmass is surging northward at the same time, and depending on the interplay between clouds and sun, we could be seeing some unseasonably warm temperatures over this coming weekend.  All of this is happening in advance of an evolving/developing winter storm system which is heading our way next week, and just might hang around for at least four or five days.

The center of that developing upper-level low pressure system is located over the southeastern Caspian Sea right now -- and of course that is a long distance to our west-northwest.  Computer models are tracking this system into the western Himalayas by late Sunday into Monday, as it pulls moisture northward ahead of it.  At the same time, the coldest air of this winter season will be drawn into the mix, setting the stage for a potentially significant winter storm event in our area starting very late Sunday night or Monday.  It is way too early to pin down a rain/snow line, but it certainly seems likely that there will be huge amounts of snow along the Dhauladhar range... and that's great news.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

january variability... (pm.16.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 43.5ºF (6.4ºC)
High temp: 52.8ºF (11.6ºC)
Precipitation: none

Some snow showers have occurred along the Dhauladhars during the past 24 hours, but as far as I've seen there has been no precipitation whatsoever here in our immediate area.  We've had plenty of cloudiness, however... as mild temperatures this morning gave way to that anticipated push of cooler air which arrived around mid-day, and caused our temps to fall several degrees throughout the afternoon.

There's very little to be concerned about during the coming two or three days... as temperatures gradually moderate again, into a range that will be significantly milder than normal for the middle of January.  Sunshine will be available, but there will be another increase in clouds on the way as we progress through the weekend.

A huge upper-level low pressure system is going to ease in from the west, causing that increase in weekend cloudiness.  This system still looks very ominous, and could very well be the most intense winter storm we've experienced this season thus far, bringing a mix of rain and snow beginning either Sunday night or Monday.  Right now the models are showing an off and on mix of wintry precipitation and progressively colder temperatures through much of next week.  For weathergeeks... this one should be interesting to follow.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

an unsettled period... (pm.15.jan.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 54.1ºF (12.3ºC)
Precipitation: none

There were the expected waves of high cirrus clouds moving overhead today, but we had a lot of sunshine in between those waves of cloudiness.  And with a milder airmass nudging its way into our area, we had the second-warmest high temperature of the month this afternoon.

Lots of cloudiness still lurks just to our west, however, as a weak but sprawling upper-level disturbance moves into and across the western Himalayan region.  A few random showers are quite possible somewhere around our general area during the next 36 hours or so, as a fresh batch of cooler air surges southward.  But then our atmosphere will stabilize again by Thursday morning, with another moderation in temperatures expected as we head into the weekend.

Further out... we're still watching the models wrestle with a developing series of storm systems next week.  The jury is out and deliberating as to how all of this might come together and affect our weather, but there are still indications and hints of some significant rain and snow off and on starting as early as late Sunday, and continuing through much of the following week.

Check tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

Monday, January 14, 2019

less sun in days ahead... (pm.14.jan.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.0ºF (3.9ºC)
High temp: 51.1ºF (10.6C)
Precipitation: none

It was great to have such a sunny day on this Monday, because we may be seeing a lot more cloudiness during the next week to ten days.  Our weather pattern is going to be more disturbed again starting tomorrow... as a weak upper-level system moves across the western Himalayas.  Precipitation chances will be fairly good in the the higher elevations north-northeast of us between Tuesday night and early Thursday, but not so good here in our immediate area.  Still, the risk of a few rain showers exists for us during that period.

Fast-forward to the weekend... a major winter storm system is being forecast by the major computer models to develop over central Asia, spreading more cloudiness our way.  In the last 24hrs the timing has slowed by about 12-18hrs, with the best chances of rain and snow development now pushed back to either very late Sunday or Monday of next week.  That is a long way out by weather prediction standards, but as of right now, it looks like we could be dealing with a few days in a row of cold and wet/white weather during the first half of next week.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above for evolving forecast specs.