the latest...

**We're still anticipating temps to nudge the 80ºF/27ºC mark here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area during the next couple of days...

Monday, March 27, 2017

feels like late april... (pm.27.mar.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 77.1F (25.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's now ten days in a row without measurable rainfall, and the sixth day in a row of high temps exceeding 70ºF/21ºC.  In fact, today's high at my location in the upper part of town is the warmest of the season and the year, and more in line with a normal/average high temp for about the 22nd of April.  Again there was abundant sunshine today, though cumulus development over the mountains during the afternoon was a little more pronounced than it was yesterday.

This much warmer than normal weather is going to stick with us for a few more days, with temps possibly rising a bit further between tomorrow (Tues) and Thursday or Friday.  The first signs of instability will be returning though, as we head into the latter part of the week, and that means we could be dealing with at least a slight chance of some mainly PM shower/thunder development somewhere around the area -- starting on Wednesday, but then there's an even better chance over the weekend.  Temps will probably start to dip a few degrees by Saturday, just in time for the arrival of the new month.

I don't like what I am seeing on extended range computer models... with a very disturbed pattern evolving across the western Himalayas during the first week to ten days of April.  We could have a couple of periods of significant rain and thunderstorms during that period, along with temperatures falling back below normal for the season.  Even when the weather gets as nice as it's been recently, there are absolutely no guarantees in this part of the world...

Sunday, March 26, 2017

the finest so far... (pm.26.mar.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Precipitation: none

It is not hard to officially declare TODAY the finest of 2017... with almost full sunshine, and temperatures which were about as comfortable as they get.  In fact, my high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest since the last couple of days of September, nearly six months ago.  The Dhauladhars stood in full glory as millions of cricket fans in India, Australia and other parts of the world watched the happenings down at the HPCA stadium in Dharamsala.

A building high pressure ridge will continue to dominate our weather scene during at least the first half of this week, causing our temps to climb even further above normal than they have already done.  For a few days we've been talking about 80ºF/27ºC as a distinct possibility around Tuesday and/or Wednesday, and that prognostication holds.  With major warming in the surface levels, and temps remaining steady or only warming slightly up higher in the atmosphere, we may see the risk of an isolated afternoon thundershower increasing through the week, but the mainly dry weather of the last nine days should not be seriously challenged until the weekend.

Then, a pattern change is in the cards as April arrives, and though the models are fluctuating and inconsistent as of now, it looks like temperatures will drop quite a bit, with shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase, at least off-and-on, during the first week to ten days of the new month.  Stay tuned for daily updates.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

springtime on display... (pm.25.mar.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Precipitation: none

I've only recorded a trace of rainfall, on three different occasions, during the last eight days.  And during those same eight days, temperatures have gone from about 11ºF/6ºC below normal, to 2-3ºF/1-2ºC above normal.  It's definitely been quite a transformation we've undergone since just barely over a week ago.  Today has been yet another day of the back-and-forth between sunshine and clouds that we have seen so often during this past week.

Other than a barely mentionable risk of a shower or thundershower one of these afternoons, we should continue to see a good amount of sunshine punctuated by periods of cloudiness as we make our way through the coming several days.  The main event is going to be the northward surge of some even warmer temperatures, which is still looking like it will take us very far above normal for the tail-end of March.  The 80ºF/27ºC mark could be reached sometime during the mid-week period.

As April arrives next Saturday, the weather pattern is going to become more unsettled and unstable -- and potentially much cooler and wetter.  There's a lot of time to keep an eye on things, but just keep in mind that this unseasonably warm weather may not continue into the new month.

Friday, March 24, 2017

aggressive warming ahead... (pm.24.mar.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Precipitation: trace

We're completing our third day in a row in which the high temperature has exceeded 70ºF/21ºC, though yesterday was just slightly warmer than it was today.  Once again we saw a lot of back and forth between sunshine and cloudiness, and also a very brief spell of thunder and some fleeting sprinkles of rain -- both occurring between about 2:00 and 3:00pm.  This evening at sunset we have mostly clear skies.

Temperatures since Wednesday have been a bit above normal, but we should be warming up even further over the weekend into about the middle of next week, as the huge ridge of high pressure across central India pokes northward again.  I think there is a chance we could even nudge the 80ºF/27ºC mark by Tuesday, which is a normal high temp for the very end of April or the first few days of May.  Our atmosphere will be generally stable until the latter part of the week... though a random/isolated PM thundershower is not impossible on any given day.  But really, it seems that the main theme of the coming five or six days will be UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, along with a variable mix of sunshine and mainly high clouds.

This evening's extended range data is showing some very frightening stuff for the first few days of April -- a strong upper-level storm system bringing in much cooler temps and an extended spell of wet weather.  Let's hope the models change their minds, as that's still quite a long way into the future...