the latest...

**The first morning of MAY has arrived... and we have beautifully clear skies at dawn, with a relatively cool temp near 59ºF/15ºC.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

expressive april departs... (pm.30.apr.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C) -- tied for coolest of the month
High temp: 71.2F (21.8C)
Rainfall: 1.36" (3.5cm) -- largest daily rainfall total of the month

This final day of April has been a remarkable one.  First of all, we had an extended period of showers and thunderstorms very early this morning which delivered nearly 1.2" (3cm) of rain.  Secondly, at around 5:00am during the rain, the temperature dropped to 50.5ºF/10.3ºC -- equalling the coolest temp of the entire month, which had first occurred back on the morning of the 5th.  And then, we managed to get several hours of beautiful warm sunshine which kept the day from being a total loss.  Finally, we had another period of thundershowers during the late afternoon which boosted the daily rainfall total to its largest for a single calendar day this month.  Now, at sunset, it is partly cloudy and quite chilly.

In a few hours we'll be saying goodbye to April 2017, which has had quite the vibrant and expressive personality.  We've had more than double the normal/average amount of rain for the month, but we also had a streak of eight days with temperatures which were way above normal for so early in the season, along with a few days of almost totally cloudless skies.  Also, we had some cooler than average weather during the first week, and then of course this excitement here on the final day.

As we move into the first week of May, our general pattern looks like it is going to remain quite changeable and fickle, with an upper-level flow which will continue to be embedded with some disturbances, ripples and wiggles.  That means we can expect a mix of sun, clouds and the risk of isolated thundershowers over the course of the coming several days, and beyond, with hints of a significant warming trend still showing up by the weekend into the following week.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

on the lookout... (pm.29.apr.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
High temp: 78.6F (25.9C)
Rainfall: trace

We had some scattered and very feeble thundershowers around the area early this morning, but all of that activity was over well before mid-morning, leaving us with a mix of sunshine and clouds for the rest of the day.  Things are looking very nice at the moment, just before sunset, with only a few clouds around, and a very comfortable temp near 72ºF/22ºC.

Luck has been with us this afternoon and evening so far, as satellite pics show clusters of thunderstorms northwest, north, northeast, east, southeast and south of us.  It's quiet for now, but I don't think it will stay that way overnight.  A fast-moving upper-level disturbance will move across northern Pakistan and into Kashmir during the next 24 hours, and all of the available computer model output is showing a very good chance of some significant pulses of showers and thunderstorms across our area during that timeframe.  The models have actually been way over-doing precipitation amounts during the last week or so, so they could be hyping things again for tonight into Sunday -- but just be aware that we could get hit with some fairly rowdy thunderstorms with gusty winds between tonight and Sunday evening.

The pattern next week continues to look 'marginally unstable'... just as it has been during the last eight days or so.  That means we will continue to see fluctuations between sunshine and periods of clouds, along with occasional chances of some isolated to scattered thundershower action.  No major, lasting temperature changes are expected until next weekend, when we could see a rather dramatic warming trend kick in.

Friday, April 28, 2017

weekend thundershower risk... (pm.28.apr.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 79.2F (26.2C)
Rainfall: none

Today's high temp was the warmest (just barely) I've recorded in exactly one week, and is just slightly above normal for the last few days of April.  We started off with full sunshine this morning, but the mountain cumulus clouds were already starting to develop by 11:00am, which led to more scattered light thundershowers in the higher elevations to our north throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.  Even now, as the sun sets, things are still looking marginally unstable along the Dhauladhars, with quite a bit of cloudiness hanging on.

I guess 'marginally unstable' is the best way to describe the weather we've been experiencing the last several days -- with a mix of sunshine and mainly mountain clouds, and a daily round of generally weak showers/thundershowers that have barely brushed us here in McLeod.  As far as temperatures are concerned, it has been extremely pleasant and comfortable, and as we've expected, right in the acceptable range of 'normal' for this time of year.

A fresh upper-level disturbance is going to be dropping in from the northwest this weekend, and as of now, it's looking like it will cause our risk of some scattered showers and thundershowers to rise into the 40-60% range during the coming 48 hours or so.  A couple of the models are looking a little more potent than before... indicating the potential for at least a round or two of fairly significant precipitation (perhaps up to a half-inch/1.2cm) by the time the weekend is over.  We've already had much more rainfall than average for this month of April, thanks to that storm system back during the first week of the month, but it looks like there's some chance of picking up more before all is said and done.

Next week, as May arrives, things are still looking a bit on the unstable side, but with temps remaining very close to normal for the season.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

relatively minor issues... (pm.27.apr.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
High temp: 75.5F (24.2C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm) -- updated @ 8:12pm

A very pleasant late April evening is underway, after our brush with some mountain thundershowers earlier.  There was a bit of thunder rumbling up-mountain shortly after 1:00pm, but it wasn't until 5:00-5:20pm that we actually got a brief period of light rain showers.  Otherwise it has been a day of both sunshine and cloudiness, with temperatures (both low and high) a bit cooler than expected.

Believe it or not, we are STILL dealing with the remnants of last weekend's upper-level low pressure system -- it has been lethargically spinning around over Kashmir for the last two or three days, triggering scattered showers/thunder over the higher elevations -- and finally a little of that action drifted into our neighborhood late this afternoon.  Still, rainfall was barely enough to register a measurement in the gauge.  Our pattern all the way into the middle of next week is going to remain touch-and-go, as a few more weak disturbances in the upper flow are expected to ripple across Himalayan north India.  As I have already said a few times... we're not talking about any kind of major storm system, but neither are we talking about a totally dead, quiet and care-free pattern.  Not a bad idea to have a small umbrella tucked away somewhere, just in case.

Otherwise, our temps should remain pretty close to the normal range as we close out April and shift into May, with no really major fluctuations on either side.