the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Friday, December 15, 2017

quiet times ahead... (pm.15.dec.17)>

Not much to talk about weather-wise the next few days, and possibly all the way through the end of the month and the year.  The overall weather pattern is shifting into a very benign state, with a generally dry atmosphere, and only minor ripples in the upper-levels floating across northern India.

The only thing to be concerned about is occasional waves of mainly high clouds which could eclipse the winter sunshine from time to time... otherwise we should see our temperatures rising above normal again.  That beautiful snow on the mountains above town will be melting, day by day, and won't be replenished anytime soon.

Thursday, December 14, 2017

rebounding phase... (pm.14.dec.17)>

4.93" (12.5cm) -- That's the grand total of rainfall from our recent early winter storm system, 99% of which occurred between 7AM Monday and 7AM Wednesday.  This is MORE than the normal precipitation total for the entire month of December, and the most rainfall in a 48 hour period since August.  Earlier today I heard from a very reliable source that the snow at Triund on Wednesday was hip-deep... which is closer to three feet than the previously reported two feet.

Today (Thu) we've been in transition, as the atmosphere gradually stabilizes from the recent turmoil.  There was a good amount of sunshine this morning, but a batch of mid-high clouds rolled in by mid-day, thanks to some significant warming starting to arrive in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  It looks like the general temperature trend will be upward as we head into the weekend, with increasing amounts of sunshine over the course of the coming several days.

Extended range weather models show no evidence of another significant storm system... all the way through Christmas and toward the end of 2017.  We'll keep watch to see if that outlook holds.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

the worst is over... (pm.12.dec.17)>

My stats today...

High temp: 45.7ºF (7.6ºC)
Low temp: 37.9ºF (3.3ºC)
Precipitation: 3.28" (8.3cm)

Total storm precip since Mon AM: 4.23" (10.7cm)

Our seventy-day streak without measurable rainfall/precipitation has come to an end in dramatic fashion during the past 36 hours or so.  If the gargantuan rainfall amounts here in McLeod Ganj weren't impressive enough... there have also been huge amounts of snowfall in the mountains just above us.  The snow line has come as low as the vicinity of Magic View, and I've had a few confirmations today of snowfall in excess of two feet at Triund.  It's very early in the season for such an accumulation at that elevation.

Computer models provided excellent guidance... as far back as 11 days ago... which gave us a major 'heads-up', and plenty of time to get prepared for this radical change.

Although most of the moisture that has been feeding this system is being shunted to our east-northeast now, the upper-level dynamic energy still lingers to our west-northwest over northern parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  That means that we could still be affected by waves of shower development tonight, tomorrow (Wed), and possibly into tomorrow night.  A stabilizing atmosphere is expected to build in thereafter... and right now, the weekend is looking very good, with rapidly rebounding temperatures.

Monday, December 11, 2017

it's here... (pm.11.dec.17)>

*Update @ 9:30pm...  0.88" (2.2cm) in the rain gauge.  Light to moderate rain continues, with occasionally very gusty winds.

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Moderate rain is falling here at my spot in the upper part of McLeod Ganj just below Tushita and the mountaineering center late this evening.  As of 7:30pm, I had recorded 0.52" (1.3cm) of rain, which is the most in my gauge since the 27th of September, almost two and a half months ago.  There were a few very light showers popping up as early as about 5:00am this Monday morning... but more substantial showers didn't really get going until between about 11:00 and 11:30am.  And that was pretty much right on schedule.

The core of our intense upper-level low pressure circulation/system is moving from Afghanistan into northwestern Pakistan right now, and has been tapping into and drawing moisture northeastward from the Arabian Sea as it approaches.  That warmer and more moisture-laden air slammed into the outer ranges of the Himalayas earlier today, just as the colder air aloft began to move in... and that's been the recipe for this widespread/moderate precipitation development.

The heaviest precip (rain here/snow above) will occur tonight into the first half of tomorrow (Tuesday), with that rain/snow diminishing by the mid-day or afternoon hours.  BUT -- it's going to remain marginally unstable all the way through Thursday, so other rain/snow showers are likely, off and on.

This evening I recorded a low temp of 43.7ºF/6.5ºC, which is the coolest since the 13th of March, in the midst of an unusually cold/wet late winter storm system. Our temps will plunge even further during the next couple of days.


satellite pic -- 8:00pm IST