Thursday, February 1, 2018

new month, same story... (pm.01.feb.18)>

It has been disheartening to see the risk of some light to moderate precipitation on Saturday fade into oblivion... and also to continue to monitor a mid-winter weather pattern that refuses to deliver any kind of significant storm system to Himalayan north India.

Of course there is still time to see some kind of change in this very benign and dull and uneventful weather pattern, but current models are not showing a whole lot of action... all the way through the middle of this new month.

I have to make my exit from India very soon, so if things change and we finally get some much needed winter rain and snowfall, I won't be around to see it.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

watching and waiting... (pm.30.jan.18)>

The last couple of data runs have been looking a bit more interesting, in terms of the prospects for some measurable precipitation in our area sometime between late Friday evening and late Saturday night.  Right now, we're not talking about a major winter storm system... but the chance of something on the order of a half-inch (1.2cm) of rain looks reasonable.  Of course that would translate into around 5-6" (13-15cm) of snow up towards Triund.

In the meantime, we'll continue to see a mix of clouds and sunshine, along with rather mild temperatures for the January-to-February transition period.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

very little action... (pm.27.jan.18)>

With just over four days left of January 2018, we've had only about five hours of accumulating precipitation to log into the weather stats -- occurring back on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  That's pretty pathetic.  Yes, as far as comfort and convenience is concerned, it has been a very pleasant month -- but considering the fact that mid-winter rain and snowfall is vitally important around here, it has not been good news.

Afternoon cloud/fog development has eased off the last day or two, as a brisk west-northwesterly flow aloft gradually erodes the latent moisture which had been lingering in the wake of Tuesday's precipitation event.  But a fresh upper-level disturbance organizing  over central Asia will bring us some waves of high cloudiness during the coming several days... though rain/snow chances look like they will be best in the higher elevations to our north between late Monday and early Wednesday.  Meanwhile, our general temperature trend will be upward...

Thursday, January 25, 2018

sun/cloud/fog struggles... (pm.25.jan.18)>

Well...  Our overall weather scenario definitely has changed these last several days, as we were expecting.  It's been a surprise to see all of this cloud/fog development here along the mountains in the wake of the fast-moving storm system that brought us some light precipitation back on Tuesday afternoon/evening -- but the drop in temps has been pretty much in line with expectations.

There are no incoming storm system to deal with, at least in the near term, but a west-northwesterly upper-level flow is going to keep us under the influence of a fairly typical mid-winter continental Asian air mass for the next two or three days.  Mainly PM cloud/fog development will still be an issue to watch, but rain/snow is very unlikely through Monday.

A new system pushing into the western Himalayas during the first part of next week looks like it will stay to our north, though there is at least a mentionable risk of some shower activity on Tuesday.