the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

#2 rain event of the season... (pm.27.aug.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 68.7F (20.4C)
Rainfall: 5.15" (13.1cm) -- thru midnight

All or nothing.  Feast or famine.  That has been the story of this second half of August.  Today's rainfall has been the second-largest total of the entire monsoon season, and has made up for all the dry (or barely wet) days of the past week.  Light rain showers (with some thunder and lightning) got going somewhere around 2:00am, but the heavier rain waited until around 8:00am to materialize, with the very heaviest rain of all happening between roughly 11:00am and 1:30pm.  After that, we've had occasional light to moderate showers throughout the rest of the day, and even now as dusk sets in.

The August rainfall deficit that had built up since the 15th of the month has now been mostly erased -- in the space of just 15-16 hours or so.  We now lack just over an inch of rain in the next four days to reach the normal/average total for August.

It still looks like a few rounds of moderate to heavy showers could occur during the next several days, but the models are showing a fairly impressive push of drier air coming in from the west-northwest by Friday or Saturday, which could possibly send humidity readings down below 50% for the first time since June.  The last few weeks of the monsoon season are always tedious times, with hopes of lasting drier weather dashed by little surges of lingering tropical moisture.  So get ready for plenty of ups and downs as we cross into September...

Of course all of the rainfall stats for this monsoon season are available on tabs above.

Friday, August 26, 2016

two moods of august... (pm.26.aug.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 66.4F (19.1C)
High temp: 80.6F (27.0C)
Rainfall: trace -- as of 4:50pm

The disparity between the first half of the month and the second half (so far) is almost unbelievable...

1-    4.32" (11.0cm)
2-    2.19" (5.6cm)
3-    0.57" (1.4cm)
4-    1.54" (3.9cm)
5-    0.31" (8mm)
6-    3.00" (7.6cm)
7-    2.53" (6.4cm)
8-    0.18" (5mm)
9-    1.93" (4.9cm)
10-  0.95" (2.4cm)
11-  6.17" (16.7cm)
12-  0.37" (9mm)
13-  0.80" (2.0cm)
14-  1.38" (3.5cm)
15-  1.27" (3.2cm)      27.51" (69.9cm) -- first 15 days of August
16-  0.11" (3mm)
17-  0.49" (1.2cm)
18-  0.08" (2mm)
19-  0.33" (8mm)
20-  0.68" (1.7cm)
21-  trace
22-  trace
23-  trace
24-  0.26" (7mm)
25-  0.02" (< 1mm)
26-  trace                1.97" (5.0cm) -- 16th through 26th of August

Monthly total so far - 29.48" (74.9cm)

Thursday, August 25, 2016

monsoon in hiding... (pm.25.aug.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
High temp: 74.9F (23.8C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

A nice evening is in progress, with a mix of clouds and patches of blue sky, no fog at all, and very pleasant temps remaining just above 70ºF/21ºC as dusk approaches.  The only rain today was a period of showers before dawn, and then just a few random sprinkles right around 7:00am -- and as you can see from the rainfall stats, it didn't amount to much at all.  But we are used to that lately.  Humidity has been in the range of 75 to 85% throughout the day.

In the last week I have recorded 1.27" (3.2cm) of rain, which is a mind-bogglingly small amount for a full week in late August.  And in the last ten days (since the 16th), I've measured less than 2 inches (5cm).  That tiny amount of rain in such a long span of time at this time of year is something I'm pretty sure I have not seen before.  We knew there was going to be a slowdown in monsoon conditions for a few days after the 15th-16th of this month, but the fact that our moisture resurgences since then have failed to trigger significant rainfall in our immediate area is bordering on surreal and bizarre.  But hey, that's nature, that's weather, and that's what keeps it forever interesting (I tell myself).

Several days ago I started to get into a slump, in terms of coming up with something to say here -- since the models are in a stage of irrelevance, and normal data, trends and guidance haven't connected with what is actually happening.  We are still around three weeks away from the normal/average withdrawal date of monsoon conditions in our area, and if there is not another phase or two of moderate to heavy rains before that time arrives, it will be very highly unusual...

Check rainfall stats for the last three months on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

measurable rain, finally... (pm.24.aug.16)>

Wednesday's stats (today):

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)
High temp: 72.3F (22.4C)
Rainfall: 0.26" (7mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

Tuesday's stats (yesterday):

Low temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
High temp: 74.6F (23.7C)
Rainfall: trace

After three full days without measurable rainfall, we've finally had something in the gauge today -- though it hasn't been much at all to get excited about.  Periods of sprinkles, drizzle and mainly light showers have been coming and going since just before 10:00am, and continue this evening.  Clouds and some short episodes of thick fog have won the day, with only a little bit of sunshine early this morning.

Very feeble monsoon conditions have stayed with us recently, in spite of the models' continual suggestions of an uptick in activity.  Areas of rain showers have been scattered, with all of the heavier ones staying clear of McLeod Ganj for several days.  More randomness is in our future, with a round of heavier rainfall still possible at any time.

A week ago, the remaining amount of rain to get to achieve the norm for the month of August looked like it would be a simple task, but with the monsoon drought since the 16th of the month, we're now looking at a greater challenge.

Monday, August 22, 2016

poised on the brink, again... (pm.22.aug.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
High temp: 75.0F (23.9C)
Rainfall: trace -- as of 5:20pm

The fog is extremely thick out there as I begin to type this evening, but there has been so much extreme variability between sun, clouds, fog, and very light rain showers/drizzle today -- who knows what might be happening by the time I get this posted.!  A major blast of sunshine early this morning boosted the high temp to 75ºF (24ºC) at my place in the upper part of town, but clouds and fog rapidly developed by the latter half of the morning, which led to occasional very light doses of rain during the afternoon and early evening hours.  Since mid-afternoon there has been a lot of shower and thundershower development across Himachal Pradesh, but as of this moment the heavier stuff has avoided us.

The vast array of data, and its advertisement of an increase in frequency and intensity of rain showers this week has so far failed to deliver -- at least here immediately on top of McLeod Ganj.  This is about the third time this monsoon season that we've had to sit on pins and needles waiting for the next significant surge of tropical moisture to manifest in heavier rainfall activity, and I have to admit it is not my favorite thing.  Still, all those models and all that data are pointing to a major increase in daily rainfall rates, effective immediately, and lasting through the weekend into early next week.  So we really could see the tables turn at any moment.

With less than two inches (5cm) of rain in the last week, the rain gauge is definitely very thirsty again.  Check tabs above for the AUGUST RAINFALL tally to see the numbers for yourself.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

atmospheric hesitation... (pm.21.aug.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
High temp: 72.6F (22.6C)
Rainfall: trace

There's a lot of variability between clouds, fog and the fading sunlight this evening, with pleasant temps but rather high humidity (near 90%).  Apart from just a few minutes of very light drizzle late this afternoon that I noticed as I was heading into town, we've had a day without measurable rainfall for the first time since the 20th of July.  Clouds were rather thick at times, however, with some periods of fog which were most prevalent during the mid-afternoon.

It's been one of those days that has defied nearly all of the model guidance.  From satellite pics, it looks like there was barely any rainfall at all across Himachal Pradesh, or most of the rest of northern India for that matter.  That, in spite of the fact that the moisture content of our air mass is higher than it was for most of last week.  Although the necessary moisture is in place for periods of heavy rain showers, there have obviously been some missing dynamic ingredients today.  Overall conditions are expected to change very little throughout this coming week, so it's a matter of time before it all 'clicks' and we get our next dumpings of moderate to heavy rain.  As we've seen over and over, about the time we're ready to give up on it will be the moment that the heavens unload.

We have ten days left in August to come up with only 6.6" (16.8cm) of rain to reach the normal amount for the month.  Follow the detailed rainfall stats on tabs above...

Saturday, August 20, 2016

signs of resurgence... (pm.20.aug.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
High temp: 71.7F (22.1C)
Rainfall: 0.68" (1.7cm)

The best weather of the entire day is happening this evening, with some high clouds above, some cumulus and patchy fog visible in the valleys below, and some nice sunshine filtering through it all.  But until just recently, it has been a mostly cloudy, gloomy, occasional foggy, and rather damp day.  Today's rainfall total (up til now) isn't very big, really, but we did have about a half hour of moderate to heavy showers between about 4:30 and 5:00am, then several periods of drizzle and light rain showers around sunrise, and again between 11:15am and about 2:00pm.  In my rain gauge in the upper part of town it's been the biggest rainfall amount since Monday -- but there were much heavier rains just south of us during the past 12 hours.

Real monsoon elements had been in retreat for four days or so, until very early this morning.  But the overall "big picture" trend since last night has been for the deeper tropical moisture to be oozing back northwestward, and we had our first tastes of that today.  Although we're still not talking about an extremely intense period of continuous rains, our daily rainfall rates during the coming week or so will likely be quite a bit higher than we've seen this past week.  Expect a few bright periods here and there, but the risk of some blasts of moderate to heavy rainfall will be good -- as we would normally expect during the final one-third of August anyway.

Extended range models are projecting the next major slowdown coinciding with the arrival of September.  The average official date of monsoon withdrawal here in the Dharamsala area is right around the 15th of September, so it's possible that we are only about 4 weeks away from the end of this year's rendition...

Check tabs above for detailed rainfall stats and other local info.

Friday, August 19, 2016

lethargic for now... (pm.19.aug.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)
High temp: 76.2F (24.6C)
Rainfall: 0.33" (8mm) -- updated @ 7:55pm

For the second evening in a row, we have fabulous conditions to enjoy -- with equal parts clouds and blue sky, calm winds, pleasant temps, and no rain in the immediate area.  The day has been a good one, all around, with only a short period of scattered showers around the area late this afternoon to spice up the mix of sun and clouds.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town ranged from about 64 to 83%, and limited rainfall has given us a four-day total which is well below normal for the middle of August.

BUT -- considering the fact that the first 15 days of the month were WAY above normal in terms of rainfall, this major slowdown since Tuesday is just part of nature's balance.  The deepest and richest tropical moisture, along with the best atmospheric dynamic energy for rain/thunder development remain southeast of us, but there has been a northwestward shift worth noting during the last 12-18 hours or so.  This evening, there is widespread rain and thundershower activity extending from central Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand into extreme southern Himachal, and most of the data shows more favorable conditions for a return to heavier rain encroaching upon us over the weekend.  It's always interesting to watch these surges and retreats, so let's see what we come up with by the time Monday arrives.

Honestly, there is no sign of the kind of consistently intense monsoon conditions that we endured between the very end of July and the 15th of August returning anytime soon, but bouts of heavier rain are still very likely as we finish off the last one-third of the month.

Follow rainfall stats for June, July and August on tabs above...

Thursday, August 18, 2016

a period of serenity... (pm.18.aug.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 71.7F (22.1C)
Rainfall: 0.08" (2mm) 

The weather this evening definitely falls into the TOP THREE most pleasant (and gorgeous) of the month of August up to this point.  It's partly cloudy, there is NO FOG, no trace of rain, and at least as of a few minutes ago, there was a nice rainbow over the mountains to the east-northeast.  Temperatures are extremely pleasant (still close to 70ºF/21ºC), with humidity right around 80%.  Actually we had clouds for most of the day, but rainfall has been in the form of only short periods of drizzle and light rain showers at times.  The sun started breaking out by late afternoon and has been peeking in and out right into the evening.

Though there have been occasional setbacks, we've certainly seen the expected slowdown in monsoon conditions evolve over the course of the past several days, as the very deepest tropical moisture lurks southeast of us.  All of the model data is showing a hesitant return of that genuine monsoon moisture over the course of the coming few days, but there are some decent pockets of drier and more stable air across extreme northwest India that will take some time to be displaced.  Still, the development of showers and/or thundershowers could occur any time, with the risk of longer-lasting and heavier rains returning as we transition into next week.

Even with this recent period of much lower daily rainfall rates, we are only in need of 7.69" (19.5cm) of additional rain in the next 13 days to finish the month on par with the norm.  Check AUGUST RAINFALL stats at the top of the page for the details.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

evening spoiler... (pm.17.aug.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C) -- updated
High temp: 72.7F (22.6C)
Rainfall: 0.49" (1.2cm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

Well things have turned very dramatically on us this evening -- here at the end of a day which was looking like it would go down in the books as one of the most uneventful days of the month.  But thundershowers, intense ones at that, have developed since just after 6:00pm, and are providing us with some moderate to heavy showers, thunder and lightning, and very gusty north-northeasterly winds.  We had beautiful sunshine early this morning, again, with cloud development leading to some very brief, light sprinkles and showers around mid-day into the mid-afternoon.  But then the sun broke out again, and it really did look like we were going to make it through the day with very little rainfall.  But now that has changed.

The mid-August territorial battles are obviously in progress... as that drier air to the northwest we've been talking about for several days gets continually challenged by little surges of more moisture-laden and energy-packed tropical air coming in from the south and southeast.  That's why we've had so many wild swings in conditions this entire week so far.  Humidity dropped all the way down to 64% this morning with the bright sunshine, but we've got something quite different going on this evening.

Every year during the latter part of August I hear people talking about the imminent end to the monsoon, after only a day or two of drier/brighter conditions.  Don't listen to that talk.  We've got lots more of Monsoon 2016 in our future...

Check out all the rainfall stats on tabs at the top of the page.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

competing elements... (pm.16.aug.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: 0.11" (3mm)

We have clouds, patches of fog, random showers and some fleeting patches of blue sky out there this evening... at the end of a day which has been filled with lots of variation in sky conditions, again.  We've had periods of bright sunshine, but also a lot of cloudiness for most of the day -- BUT -- unless something happens in the next several hours, the rainfall tally at my location the upper part of town will be the lowest daily total since the 26th of July.  Yes, there have again been scattered showers (and thunder) in the vicinity, mainly between about 2:45 and 4:00pm, but not like we've seen during the last two or three days.  Humidity was as low as 72% this morning, but has pushed 90% again early this evening.

It seems that we are indeed getting some semblance of a slow-down in monsoon conditions which have been abnormally active and intense this August.  It's about time, and let's see if we can continue to enjoy more of these periods of sunshine and relatively lower humidity over the course of the next few days.  Of course the risk of shower/thunder development will not be out of the picture, and we all know that sudden downpours can make us quickly forget about the sunny skies earlier in the day.

Most of the model trends indicate a gradual return of deeper tropical moisture as we ease into the weekend and beyond, so it will be a good idea to relish the comparatively drier and more pleasant conditions while we can...

Remember to follow the AUGUST RAINFALL tally, along with stats for June and July as well, on tabs above.

Monday, August 15, 2016

holiday swings and extremes... (pm.15.aug.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: 1.27" (3.2cm) --updated @ 7:55pm

Light to moderate rain showers are in progress this evening, with clouds, fog, and a few attempts by the setting sun to peek through all the mess.  The last few days have featured a lot of variability, weatherwise, but today featured the most extreme fluctuations yet, with several quick and dramatic swings between bright sunshine and moderate to heavy rain showers.  In fact, I observed a couple of occasions of both sun and showers happening simultaneously.  Today's heaviest rain occurred between about 1:20 and 2:30pm, and again for a short period between 5:30 and 6:00pm.  Humidity was down to 75% during mid-morning, but has again jumped up above 90% late this afternoon and evening.

After just looking through all the data, models, charts, satellite pics, etc., i find myself with very little to say that hasn't been said recently.  The main issue is that we remain right on the northwestern fringes of the deepest and richest tropical moisture, with some pockets of drier air to the northwest still trying to gain some territory.  But as we've seen during the last 3-4 days, the greater frequency of sunny episodes has been equalled by the very strong convective development here along the mountain slopes by mid-day into the PM hours.  Unless the wind trajectories across the various layers of the atmosphere shift appreciably, this general pattern is not going to change much this week.

So we've had a little of everything for the throngs of people here in McLeod enjoying their Indian Independence Day extended holiday weekend -- and considering we're still in the middle of the monsoon season, it certainly could have been a lot worse...

Get more stats and info on tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, August 14, 2016

the sun and the rain... (pm.14.aug.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)

High temp: 73.2F (22.9C)
Rainfall: 1.38" (3.5cm) -- updated @ 7:50pm

At the moment there are no rain showers here in the middle of the McLeod Ganj market, but a 360º view shows scattered showers remaining in the vicinity this evening.  Once again we started off with some decent periods of sunshine during the early to mid-morning -- with glimpses of sun popping in and out throughout the rest of the day as well, actually.  But we've also had to contend with numerous periods of rain showers this afternoon and early evening, especially between roughly 2:30 and about 5:30pm.  Some of those showers were briefly moderate to heavy, and have put a larger amount in my rain gauge today than I recorded yesterday.  Humidity was as low as 74% around 9:30am, but has gone back above 90% since the afternoon.

The weather pattern is going pretty much according to expectations, as we find ourselves right on the dividing line between some drier air to the west-northwest, and deeper tropical moisture lingering just barely to our south and southeast.  This is providing us with an extremely variable and fluctuating scenario -- which has been on full display the last couple of days.  No major changes are expected as we move through this new week, with neither the dry air to the northwest or the pure tropical stew to the southeast totally taking over.  That means we'll continue to experience a bit of both worlds, with some sun at times, but also impressive rain showers coming and going.

Believe it or not, we're only about 10" (25cm) away from the normal/average rainfall total for August, with more than half the month left to go.  Although it will be hard to sustain the huge daily rainfall average of these first two weeks of August, it will also take a major turn of events to prevent us from getting those 10 inches over the course of the next 17 days...

Follow all the rainfall averages, actual stats, and lots of other local info on tabs above.

Saturday, August 13, 2016

a mix of ingredients... (pm.13.aug.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Rainfall: 0.80" (2.0cm) 

There are glimmers of sun, patches of fog, plenty of clouds, and periods of drizzle and scattered rain showers in the area this evening -- which pretty much sums up the day.  We've had it all, starting with that beautiful sunshine which lasted until mid-morning, then the rapidly thickening clouds and fog around 10:30am, which led to fits and starts of light to moderate rain showers (and some thunder) throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.  There were even a couple of brief periods of rain showers which we could classify as heavy, especially for 30-45 minutes on either side of the 1 o'clock hour.  Of course it has been a day where/when those showers were of a very scattered nature, so you could have had a different experience... depending on where you've been today.

Humidity was as low as 76% at my location in the upper part of town during the mid-morning, but it then climbed back above 90% this afternoon.  And, thanks to the morning sun, my high temp (above) was the warmest I've recorded since the 5th of the month, more than a week ago.

Some drier air continues to attempt to nudge toward us from the west-northwest, and that's going to keep us right on the edge of the deeper tropical moisture during the next several days.  This will mean a lot of variability and numerous fluctuations between brighter/drier conditions, and periods of showers.  Moderate to heavy downpours are still quite likely at times, though a few sunny episodes should help to lift the mood...

Lots of other info is available on tabs above and archives to the right.

Friday, August 12, 2016

overdue for a break... (pm.12.aug.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.2F (17.3C)
High temp: 68.8F (20.4C)
Rainfall: 0.37" (9mm) --updated @ 8:00pm

We're in the midst of one of those rare gorgeous mid-monsoon evenings that come along once in a while -- with some good visibility off to the southwest, patches of blue sky, and vivid views of the lush green mountain slopes all around.  Most of the day has featured a lot of cloudiness, several periods of thick fog, and occasional periods of rain showers and drizzle, but we're finishing the day on a much nicer note.  I'll have to update that rainfall total later this evening, but even with the brief heavier showers scattered around the area around 5:00pm, today's total will be nowhere near what we saw yesterday.

I have measured nearly 29" (73.7cm) of rain in the last TWO WEEKS, which means we've had a daily average above 2" (5cm) since the last couple of days of July.  The end of July and the first half of August are SUPPOSED to be wet -- the wettest period of the year on average -- but that kind of rainfall is really impressive, and above the norm.  We are definitely overdue for an ebbing phase of this recently active to very active period of Monsoon 2016, and at least according to the models, there is hope.

Some drier air working in from the northwest should chip away at the very deep tropical moisture which has been jammed up against the western Himalayas recently, and although I doubt that we'll see a total end to rain shower development, there should be some brighter periods mixed in, with average daily humidity readings dropping by about 10-15% or so.  Let's see if that provides an improvement to our quality of life during the coming several days...

Follow the rainfall numbers from this year and last, on tabs above.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

heaviest rain in two years... (pm.11.aug.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: 6.17" (15.7cm) -- updated @ 7:55pm


That's something remarkable, no doubt.  The heaviest rain came in two distinct doses -- the first was during the very early morning hours, just over an inch and a half (4.0cm), but the main show was the extended period of heavy to very heavy rain which gradually got going between 8:00 and 9:00am, and reached it's zenith between roughly 9:30am and 12:30pm.  During that 3-4 hour period, there was a little more than 4 inches (10cm) of rain deposited in my gauge in the upper part of town.  Lingering periods of showers throughout the afternoon added another half inch (1.2cm)+ to that mammoth total for the day.

If you're a regular reader, you know that we've been talking about LOWER daily rainfall rates since Monday, and according to all the model guidance and trends, that was supposed to continue into Saturday.  But all of that speculation and expectation got totally up-ended and demolished today, reminding us of the basic flaws in computer model data, while also humbling the meteorologist.  I couldn't have been more surprised by such a massive dumping of rain -- and it wasn't an isolated event either, as most of northwestern Himachal Pradesh was included in the action.

The model data is STILL showing lower daily rainfall totals through the weekend into early next week, but here in the very middle of the monsoon season there is obviously enough moisture around to translate into extremely heavy rains when the wind trajectories and the mountains slopes click just right.  But I think we are all very much in need of a break...

Follow the rainfall tally on tabs above, and compare those numbers to last year's monsoon if you have an obsession for stats.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

still in the fight... (pm.10.aug.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 68.4F (20.2C)
Rainfall: 0.95" (2.4cm) -- total thru midnight

We had sudden clearing, a bright rainbow and some blasts of sunshine very late this afternoon, but the clouds seem to be in the process of thickening up again this evening.  Apart from that very pleasant (but brief) break, it's been a cloudy, foggy, gloomy and damp day, with several periods of light to moderate rain showers.  From what I witnessed, the heaviest occurred right around 2:00pm, and again just before 4:00pm -- but these showers lately have been scattered and hit-and-miss, so you may have had a different experience, depending on where you've been.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town spent the vast majority of the day between 92 and 95%.

As we were expecting, our daily rainfall average has ticked downward a little bit since Monday.  We're still getting plenty of showers, and long periods of drizzle as well, but the heavier rains haven't been as frequent or long-lasting since the weekend.  Models continue to show general/average daily rainfall amounts decreasing over the course of the next 48-72 hours or so... but it only takes one big downpour to wreck that trend, and isolated major downpours are definitely a possibility any time of the day or night, even in the midst of this slight slow-down.

The good news is that we are getting deeper into the second half of this year's monsoon season, and the potential for some drier days with lower average humidity levels will be increasing as we reach the latter one-third of August.  We're still several weeks away from putting the monsoon behind us, but climatology says that we've almost made it through the worst of it...

Explore tabs above and archives on the right-hand column for plenty more info.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

more than our share... (pm.09.aug.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 71.1F (21.7C)
Rainfall: 1.93" (4.9cm) -- total thru midnight

A moderate rain shower is in progress here in the main market of McLeod at the moment, though our rainfall during the daylight hours today has been mainly in the form of drizzle and only very brief, light rain showers.  Up until now (6:30pm), the vast majority of the day's total rainfall occurred during the very early morning hours -- around 3:00 to 4:00am or so -- but from the current look of things, we'll likely be experiencing more in the way of significant rainfall as the evening wears on.  Clouds and occasional fog have dominated today, with only a couple of very quick glimpses of sunshine.

As a whole, the state of Himachal Pradesh is running slightly more than 20% BELOW normal in the rainfall department since the 1st of June -- but that is not at all the case for us.  As I have mentioned many times over the years, no matter what is happening in other parts of Himachal that are further away from the steep elevation gradient along the mountain slopes, we tend to get our normal amount of monsoon rainfall each and every year.  This year, so far, has been no exception.  In fact, at my location in the upper part of town, I am running a bit ahead of the normal pace for the combined total of June, July and these first several days of August.  Our trusty Dhauladhar effect seems to always deliver.

Moderately active monsoon conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow (Wed), but then we could see a more pronounced slow-down between Thursday and Saturday.  Even so, I highly doubt the showers will shut off completely, with a good chance of something measurable in the rain gauge daily anyway.

Check out the rainfall stats and climatological averages on tabs above...

Monday, August 8, 2016

a bit 'less wet'... (pm.08.aug.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 0.18" (5mm) -- total thru midnight

Clouds are very thick and gloomy across the area this evening, with some occasional fog, and a light drizzle in progress.  There have also been some more substantial mainly light rain showers since about 5:30pm.  Yes, there have been a few periods of light showers today, but there have also been some fleeting peeks of sunshine, both during the early morning and again briefly during the afternoon.  Today's rainfall tally is very small compared to what we dealt with over the weekend -- at least as of mid-evening.

We've had a spectacular amount of rain since the last several days of July, as this mid-monsoon period performs pretty much up to standard right here in our notoriously wet location along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  As we've been talking about for a few days, the models are showing somewhat of a slowdown in daily rainfall rates this week, but by the time we get into the weekend and analyze the numbers, it may not be all that "less wet" than we've seen during the last 12-13 days or so.  Even if monsoon conditions wane a bit, we're still talking about a few periods of moderate to heavy rainfall as the rest of this week plays out.

There are still some indications of a more significant reduction in rainfall frequency and intensity sometime after the 18th of the month, but that's still ten days away, so I will view it with a large degree of skepticism until we get a little closer...

Lots of other local weather info can be found on tabs above.

Sunday, August 7, 2016

enough water... (pm.07.aug.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
Rainfall: 2.53" (6.4cm) -- total thru midnight

It may not last for long, but at least at the moment we have a bright and healing blast of sunshine in the midst of patchy clouds and fog.  It's a nice ending to a weekend that has been full of nothing but thick clouds, fog, and varying intensities of rain.  Today's rainfall total has been another very big one -- on top of a large amount yesterday as well -- which has brought us to 5.49" (13.9cm) since just after the midnight hour on Saturday morning.  The heaviest rain today occurred between about 6:00 and 10:30am, though there was never a shortage of showers and thick drizzle throughout most of the day.  And take a look at today's temps -- very little movement on the thermometer at all.

Well, for the last several days, the data has been subtly suggesting some kind of a slow-down in rainfall rates starting either tonight or on Monday.  But during the last 18-24 hours, the data is looking even less confident in that regard... so we're going to have to watch how things evolve in the coming 24 hours or so to see if we might get any kind of short respite.  To be quite honest, taking all the models and data sets as a whole, this next week is still looking very wet, though we may have some short periods of drier and brighter conditions in between bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall.

One thing we might be able to look forward to... the very extended range models are showing a rather dramatic withdrawal of this deep tropical moisture sometime around the 17th or 18th of the month.  That could give us at least several days of waning monsoon conditions before the inevitable resurgence happens during the final week or so of August.

Keep tabs on the finalized daily and monthly rainfall tally on AUGUST RAINFALL, above.

Saturday, August 6, 2016

peak performance... (pm.06.aug.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
High temp: 69.0F (20.6C)
Rainfall: 3.00" (7.6cm) -- thru midnight

The majesty of monsoon is on full display this evening, with thick clouds above, and another thick layer of clouds and fog creeping up from the valley below.  In between, there's the lush green of our Himalayan foothills which have been the recipients of an incredible amount of water the last eleven days.  In fact, since the wee hours of the morning on the 27th of July, I've measured 21.39" (54.3cm) of rain. WOW.  It's the very peak of the monsoon season during the end of July and the first of August, and the performance has definitely been an adequate one.

Today's rainfall event began not long after midnight in the Dharamsala/McLeod area, and at least from what I saw, only let up on very brief occasions during the mid-day into the early evening hours.  The break in the action we're getting right now is the longest dry stretch all day.  

The latest computer models and data continue to show more heavy rain development across large swaths of northwest India during the coming 24 hours or so, as huge amounts of tropical moisture encounter favorable dynamics in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Once again, those models are pin-pointing areas just to our southwest for the heaviest rains between now and tomorrow (Sun) evening, but let's see how it all unfolds.

Rainfall rates should ease off just a bit next week, though it is likely that we'll see episodes of moderate to heavy rainfall almost each and every 24 hour period.

Follow the mounting AUGUST RAINFALL total, as well as stats for June and July, on tabs above...

Friday, August 5, 2016

ready for more action... (pm.05.aug.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
High temp: 74.8F (23.8C)
Rainfall: 0.31" (8mm)

It's mostly cloudy this evening, with not much of a fog issue at all, at least so far.  We started off with some sunshine again this morning, but not nearly as much as we had yesterday morning, as cloudiness rapidly thickened up not long after 9:00am or so.  From that time onwards, there were only a few glimpses of sunshine -- with the first of a few periods of rain showers getting started right around 11:30am.  That first shower seemed quite heavy right in the middle of the market (where I was at the time), but when I got home to check the rain gauge, the amount I found was lighter than expected.  Humidity today ranged from about 78 to 88%.

All the models, charts and data are pointing to a very active period of weather across most of northwest India over the weekend, with some incredibly heavy rainfall amounts (at least 5-6"/12-15cm) by Sunday night.  The very heaviest totals are now being projected just to our west-southwest, but I remember back in mid-July that was the case as well, and we ended up getting clobbered.  At any rate, we're close enough to the middle of the expected action to be braced for a lot of rain during the coming 48 hours or so.

Things may calm down a bit on Monday into Tuesday (but maybe not much) before cranking up again by the latter half of next week.  I've already recorded close to 9" (22.8cm) of rain for August, with the fifth day not even completed just yet.  We're off to a strong start, for sure.

Check tabs above for more specific monsoon rainfall info...

Thursday, August 4, 2016

sunny warmth to showers... (pm.04.aug.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
High temp: 80.4F (26.9C)
Rainfall: 1.54" (3.9cm) -- total thru midnight

We're experiencing a dramatic turn of events this evening, with some moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers in the area, along with thick cloudiness and fog.  What a change from what we were able to enjoy for the vast majority of the day.  The nearly full sunshine this morning, with humidity dropping to about 67%, was something I don't remember ever happening during the first few days of August.  It was downright gorgeous until the convective development got going during the early afternoon, bringing us some widely scattered sprinkles and very light rain showers in the midst of the variable sun and clouds.  AND -- with that sunshine and lower humidity, I recorded the warmest high temp since the 24th of JUNE.

Although models are showing the most significant resurgence of deep tropical moisture holding off until late tomorrow (Fri), it seems that we're already getting a preliminary taste of that this evening.  SO -- this recent period of quiet and drier weather is already coming to an end, obviously.  The data shows some very impressive rainfall amounts in our area over the weekend, with a particularly ominous-looking bull's-eye right on top of western Himachal Pradesh on Saturday night into mid-day Sunday.  But really, this is nothing out of the ordinary, since we are right in the middle of the middle of the monsoon season, and the heaviest rains of the entire year often occur during the last few days of July, and the first 10-15 days of August.

Next week could show some variability, but moderate to heavy rain is possible just about any day, in between periods of calm and quiet.

Check tabs at the top of the page for lots more info...

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

comparatively drier... (pm.03.aug.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 73.5F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 0.57" (1.4cm)

There are a few glimpses of sunshine this evening in the midst of mostly cloudy skies with some patchy fog.  Some moderate rain showers very early this morning were all over by sunrise, and since that time, we've had a very acceptable kind of day for early August.  There was another brief period of light rain showers during the mid-afternoon, but it didn't last long, and didn't contribute much of anything to the day's rainfall tally.  The atmosphere was a bit more clear than we've seen recently, and also a bit drier, with average humidity today only 84%.  My high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest I've recorded in the last eight days.

The advertised and anticipated slow-down in monsoon conditions has indeed materialized, and though rain chances still exist, we expect this comparatively drier period to continue until maybe Friday evening or Friday night.  Don't be surprised if we still have at least a couple of periods of showers between now and then, but rainfall rates will be much lower than the huge daily rates of the previous 7-8 days or so.

Respites during early August don't normally last for very long, and that will hold true, as deeper moisture and increasing heavy rain chances re-enter the forecast just in time for the weekend.  Right now, the data is showing both Saturday and Sunday being extremely wet, with large rainfall amounts fairly likely through Monday and Monday night as well.

Follow the mounting rainfall tally this monsoon season on tabs above...

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

a period of rest... (pm.02.aug.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: 2.19" (5.6cm)

There are a few minor breaks in the overcast this evening, otherwise we have to call it mostly cloudy, with some large patches of fog starting to show up again, mainly just below us.  It's been a cloudy and rather cool day, with humidity in the 84-90% range for the most part, and really no rain at all since lingering drizzle finally ended around mid-morning.  That big rainfall total you see in the stats section is due to the periods of heavy to very heavy rain during the overnight/pre-dawn hours, which were an extension of the heavy rain event which began last evening.  All you have to do is scroll down on this page to the posts the last few days, or check out JULY RAINFALL and AUGUST RAINFALL tabs above to see details of just how much rain has fallen since Saturday.

I've been hearing all day about local landslides around the area, in Dharamkot and also down towards Dharamsala, with some roads blocked early this morning for a few hours at least.  But most of the day we've been in clean-up, recovery mode, with slightly drier and more stable air trying to works its way in.  This mid-week period should be quieter, but even though we probably will see fewer hours of heavy rainfall, we can't say that there won't be any rain at all.  Models are trying to paint a relatively calm picture between tomorrow (Wed) and at least mid-day Friday, but it might be a good idea to keep the rain gear within reach, just in case.

By Friday night into Saturday morning, the potential for periods of heavy rain will be on the increase again -- lasting until around Tuesday of next week.  We'll also be dealing with humidity levels which fail to drop much below 90% (which has happened very infrequently recently anyway).

gargantuan... (am.02.aug.16)>

It has been raining almost continuously since just after 5:00pm yesterday.  Since that time, I've recorded 5.81" (14.8cm) of rain -- just over 2" (5cm) of that has occurred since midnight, so it will go on the tally for today (Tues).  And even more impressive: the rainfall total just since Saturday has been 10.62" (27cm).

There could be some landslides and road wash-outs somewhere around our general area, due to the huge rainfall amounts on already saturated ground, so be aware and careful if you have to be traveling.

Early this morning I had a low temp of 61.5F (16.4C), which is the coolest temperature I've recorded this monsoon season.  

Currently, it's 63ºF/17ºC, with cloudy skies and some light drizzle.  Humidity is 90%.

Monday, August 1, 2016

august aggression... (pm.01.aug.16)>

*Update @ 9:43pm... At least for now, the rain has abated.  But look at that total for the day in the stats section down below.  Wow.

*Update @ 8:47pm... I updated the rainfall total about a half hour ago, but since then, the rain intensity has increased again.  If it doesn't slow down soon, this could be an evening of rain gauge overflow...

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
High temp: 71.0F (21.7C)
Rainfall: 4.32" (11.0cm) --total thru midnight

We've had one heck of a major deluge this evening -- starting right around 5:20pm -- which has greatly increased the day's rainfall total over and above the amount you see above.  I'll of course be updating that number later this evening.  Otherwise, this first day of August has behaved almost exactly they way we would expect the first day of August to behave -- clouds, fog, high humidity (above 92% all day), only very brief glimpses of sun, and occasional rain showers going all the way back to the midnight hour.  July ended on a very wet note, and the new month has begun in the same fashion.

A few very heavy rain events during the final week of July pushed us above 99% of the normal/average amount for the month (see JULY RAINFALL) -- but now we start with a clean slate as August kicks off.  The average rainfall total for this month is only slightly less than for July -- very close to 36" (91.5cm).

Model data trends are showing this recent very wet period winding down a bit as we head into mid-week, with a chance of somewhat of a breather during the Wednesday through mid-day Friday time frame.  I kind of doubt that there will be absolutely nothing to measure in the rain gauge during that period, but it looks like it could be significantly less than our daily average during the last week or so.  But then... very deep moisture and other favorable dynamic ingredients reassemble as the weekend arrives, with more bouts of heavy rain likely into early next week.

Other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page, along with more than six years of archived posts along the right column...