the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

mild temps -- some high clouds... (pm.12.feb.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 56.6F (13.7C)
Precipitation: none

Saturday, February 11, 2017

winter waning for now... (pm.11.feb.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 56.1F (13.4C)
Precipitation: none

After a very active weather pattern which began during the first week of January, things have settled down a lot during the last several days.  The progression of strong disturbances sweeping in from the west, tapping significant amounts of tropical moisture from the Arabian Sea and forcing it up against the western Himalayan ranges has come to an end -- for now.  A generally quiet westerly flow aloft is expected to continue during the coming five or six days, with a fairly impressive ridge of high pressure attempting to build (temporarily) into northwest India.

Temperatures the last couple of days are already starting to nudge just slightly above normal for this time of year, but right now it's looking likely that we'll be pushing 60ºF/16ºC by the middle of this coming week -- for the first time since the end of December.  That's not summer, of course, but it would at least be a little bit of a taste of the spring season which is not too far away.

Mainly high clouds will challenge the sun from time to time, but the risk of any significant precipitation seems to be very small during the next week or more...

Friday, February 10, 2017

peaceful times... (pm.10.feb.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.3F (5.7C)
High temp: 55.1F (12.8C)
Precipitation: none

Thursday, February 9, 2017

toward stability... (pm.09.feb.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 41.0F (5.0C)
High temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
Precipitation: trace

Temps today averaged the coolest since the 28th of January.  We had a couple of hours of nice sunshine early this morning, but clouds, haze and a bit of fog developed rapidly by about 10:30am.  Then, after some back and forth between clouds, fog and sun, we had a period of thunder and very light rain showers between roughly 3:00 and 5:00pm... even though there was not enough to register a measurement in the rain gauge.

Leftovers of an upper-level disturbance have been moving overhead today, providing us with this instability... but gradually and slowly, some warming will be occurring aloft, and eventually in the lower layers of the atmosphere as we move through the coming several days.

There are no major storm systems on the horizon during the next couple of weeks, and it looks like we'll get a taste of a moderating trend, temperature-wise, as would be expected during the middle and latter parts of February...

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

unstable in the near term... (pm.08.feb.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C) -- updated @ 8:45pm
High temp: 54.3F (12.4C)
Precipitation: none

Another upper-level low pressure circulation and accompanying pool of cold air aloft is centered over east-central Afghanistan this evening... deepening as it shifts eastward.  If we had any decent moisture availability with this system, we'd be getting some significant shower and thunderstorm action breaking out right about now.  But that is not the case, so there's only a moderate chance of some fleeting mainly light showers in the forecast overnight into about mid-day Thursday.  There is a fresh shot of cooler air on the way, though, keeping our temps down a bit the next couple of days.

Over the weekend into the middle of next week there will be a building ridge of high pressure across the Indian subcontinent, and that will lead to a gradual warm-up.  Next Tuesday/Wednesday are still a long way off, but we could be looking at the warmest temps of this late winter season and 2017 by then.  Extended range models are not showing any really significant storm systems during the coming couple of weeks, but that data has been quite fickle the last few days, so it might not mean much.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

some stats for feb... (pm.07.feb.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
High temp: 55.4F (13.0C)
Precipitation: none

February total precip so far: 1.02" (2.6cm)


On the 1st -- 51ºF (11ºC)
On the 14th -- 56ºF (13ºC)
On the 28th -- 60ºF (16ºC)

On the 1st -- 40ºF (4ºC)
On the 14th -- 43ºF (6ºC)
On the 28th -- 48ºF (9ºC)

4.0" (10.1cm)

Monday, February 6, 2017

minor issues this week... (pm.06.feb.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
High temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
Precipitation: 0.17" (4mm)

Predawn thundershowers capped off our recent storm system, bringing the total rainfall since late Saturday evening up to 1.02" (2.6cm).  That's about a half-inch (1.2cm) less than what the average of all the computer model data was suggesting --  but still a healthy enough amount of moisture during this first week of February.

Our weather pattern during these coming several days isn't a totally quiet one, but neither is it a particularly stormy one.  Temperatures should average out just slightly cooler than normal for this time of year between tomorrow (Tue) and Friday, with hints of a significant warm-up over the weekend.  Rain chances aren't great, but we stand at least a slight chance of picking up a few mainly light showers between Wednesday afternoon and Friday, as the next upper-level disturbance and pool of cold air aloft drifts across northern India.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

underwhelming show... (pm.05.feb.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7F (6.5C) -- at 8:35pm
High temp: 55.0F (12.8C) -- at 2:00am
Precipitation: 0.72" (1.8cm) -- thru midnight
Storm total precip so far: 0.85" (2.2cm) -- 9:20pm Sat thru midnight Sun

**Updated @ 8:58pm... Still some light rain showers.  Temp dropped to 43.7F (6.5C) during an impressive hailstorm about 20 minutes ago. 

**Updated @ 8:30pm... Some fairly hefty thundershowers are in progress, with small hail and moderate rain here at my house at the moment.  I'll be updating the rainfall totals as soon as i can get to the gauge...

turbulent sunday... (am.05.feb.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 49.1F (9.5C)
High temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
Precipitation: 0.13" (3mm) -- 9:20pm thru midnight

We can add another 0.26" (7mm) to yesterday's rainfall total (above), as of 7:00am, but there are more thundershowers erupting overhead which will keep the rainfall tally climbing.

The dynamic center of the upper-level storm system responsible for the wild weather since last evening is just east of Kabul, moving steadily to the east-northeast.  We're in the moist and active quadrant of the storm system, and should remain in this vulnerable position for most of today (Sun).  Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been developing and moving northward during the last 12 hours or so, but it does look like the best conditions for this convective development will wane by tonight or very early Monday morning.

Colder air is gradually arriving, but more and more it's looking like the freezing level will have a hard time making it anywhere close to McLeod Ganj.  I'll be surprised if significant snowfall occurs below Magic View with this system... but of course I have been surprised before.

Friday, February 3, 2017

deterioration... (pm.03.feb.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 50.4F (10.2C)
High temp: 58.5F (14.7C)
Precipitation: none

Today's temps, both high and low, were the warmest since the 29th of December.  And that, in spite of the predominance of high clouds that only allowed fleeting glimmers of sunshine here and there throughout the day.

Our incoming storm system is being driven by an upper-level low pressure circulation center which is just now moving into southeastern Iran (as of late this Friday evening).  We've seen a lot of high cloudiness the last couple of days, but deeper moisture will be pushing up against the mountain slopes by mid-day tomorrow (Sat), and that's going to lead to the gradual development of rain showers and maybe some thunderstorms tomorrow evening through Sunday night.  We'll probably also see some very strong and gusty winds at times, with colder air gradually arriving as well.

Rainfall amounts by Monday morning should be on the order of about 1.50" (4cm) or so, which means higher elevations are going to get at least a foot and a half of new snow.  Unsettled conditions will hang around for much of next week, providing us with at least a slight chance of showers nearly every day, with temps on the cool side of normal...

Thursday, February 2, 2017

stormy weekend ahead... (pm.02.feb.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 47.1F (8.4C)
High temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
Precipitation: none

@ 8:46pm... Extensive bands of high, thin cirrus clouds are overhead late this evening, and we should continue to see more waves of high cloudiness during the next 48 hours before our rain chances rapidly increase.

The center of a developing storm system is swirling away just to the southwest of Tehran at the moment, with milder and more moisture-laden air being drawn north-northeastward ahead of it.  Initially, this system will be packing a major punch, as it moves toward northern Pakistan.  But then most of the computer guidance/models are showing rapid weakening, as the upper-level flow boots the main circulation center into western China.  Still... we'll expect some windy, wet and stormy conditions from Saturday night through Sunday night, with things gradually calming down on Monday.

Temperatures will plunge on Sunday, but maybe not enough to get a changeover from rain to snow here in McLeod.  Of course up-mountain locations are under the gun for some moderate to heavy snowfall, with something on the order of 1 to 2 feet a good bet for Triund.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

mild with high clouds... (pm.01.feb.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.5F (7.5C)
High temp: 54.8F (12.7C)
Precipitation: none


LOW TEMP: 33.4F (0.8C) -- on the 11th
HIGH TEMP: 55.9F (13.3C) -- on the 1st
TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 8.51" (21.6cm) -- 4.01" (10.2cm) above normal
TOTAL SNOWFALL: 2.1" (5.3cm) -- at my location in the upper part of town

We've got two, and maybe three quiet days ahead of us -- though there will be a good amount of high cloudiness to deal with from time to time.  Temperatures will be running a few degrees above normal, and if those clouds don't totally take over, we could see the warmest temps of 2017 thus far.

A developing storm system over extreme northwestern Iran will be moving our way as the weekend approaches, however, and that's going to change the scenario once again.  This system isn't looking quite as scary as the models were projecting two or three days ago -- but it's still going to be a strong one, with gusty winds, thunder, and at least some moderate rainfall amounts in our general area between Saturday night and Monday morning.  We'll have to watch the snow potential, but right now it seems that temps will again be too warm for significant snowfall here in McLeod...