the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

jan to feb... (pm.31.jan.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8F (6.0C)
High temp: 52.6F (11.4C)
Precipitation: 0.10" (3mm)

Rainfall today has been very light, as we were expecting, with most of that small total amount occurring prior to sunrise.  We did have a few brief periods of sprinkles and very light showers in the midst of occasional sunshine this afternoon, but it was barely enough to rack up a measurement in the rain gauge...

Monday, January 30, 2017

threat of some showers... (pm.30.jan.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 47.1F (8.4C)
High temp: 55.7F (13.2C)
Precipitation: trace

Today's high temp, which occurred during an hour or so of nice sunshine right around the noon hour, equalled the second-warmest temperature of the entire month of January, which previously happened just yesterday.  Yes, we've had a taste of some very mild weather the last couple of days.  There were some brief periods of very light rain showers between about 4:00 and 5:15pm, but the rain gauge is not showing anything measurable up until now.

There is a relatively weak upper-level disturbance moving from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan this evening, and that will keep a good chance of some occasional rain showers in the forecast overnight into Tuesday morning.  Most of the precipitation should happen just to our north, but we could see something that adds to our already massive January tally as we finish off the month.

After a brief cool-down during the next 24 hours, yet another mild air mass will nudge into northwest India, and hang around all the way through the first half of the coming weekend.  Temps could be the warmest of 2017 thus far, though maybe just barely, due to high cloudiness which will restrict the sunshine for hours at a time.  Still watching a strong storm system which is poised to develop and move into our area late Saturday night through next Monday...

Sunday, January 29, 2017

one of the warmest of jan... (pm.29.jan.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 49.2F (9.6C)
High temp: 55.7F (13.2C) -- second warmest of the month
Precipitation: none

@ 920pm... January 2017 is quickly coming to an end, and we've had nearly double the normal amount of precipitation for the month, with a couple of days to go.  It's looking like we might add to that amount -- with a good chance of a few periods of rain showers between tomorrow (Mon) afternoon and mid-day Tuesday.  That rainfall should be generally light, but some moderate amounts (around 0.50"/1cm) are not totally out of the question.  Temps will dip as well, but only briefly.

Very mild weather is expected to follow, between Wednesday and Saturday, but then we could be seeing yet another significant winter storm system coming our way thereafter.  This is the time of year when people start chatting about winter being over... but February is usually a very volatile month, with plenty of unpleasant surprises.

Saturday, January 28, 2017

ups and downs... (pm.28.jan.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
High temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
Precipitation: none

Temperatures today were just slightly on the mild side of normal for the final few days of January, with a fairly even split between sunshine and high clouds.  There was some rain/snow shower development in the mountains to our north-northeast this afternoon, but none of that affected us here at our elevation.

There is a new upper-level disturbance waiting in the wings, however, which will sweep across north India between late Monday and early Tuesday.  Precipitation amounts will be light, for the most part, but it is looking like there's better than a 50/50 chance of a few periods of rain showers between late Monday afternoon and roughly noon on Tuesday.

Further into the future... models are still advertising a strong storm system to develop west of us by next weekend, increasing the rain/snow potential for our area once again by Sunday through Tuesday of the following week.  That's just beyond our forecast range at the moment, but it is at least something to watch as we cross the line into February...

variability... (am.28.jan.17)>

This Saturday morning holds the potential for some sunshine -- which we've seen very little of since Monday.  But the upper-level pattern remains very unsettled and changeable, with a couple of disturbances expected to move across north India between later today and Tuesday.  That means cloud development is likely, off and on during the next few days, with a slight risk of a random shower at some point.  Actually, there's a little better chance of some rain shower action late Monday into mid-day Tuesday.  Temperatures should moderate just a bit over the weekend, but nothing too dramatic.

Our next chance for a significant storm system comes in about ten days from now (by 6-7Feb), so the active January weather pattern we've had looks like it will translate into the new month.

Friday, January 27, 2017

still a bumpy ride... (pm.27.jan.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 40.3F (4.6C)
High temp: 45.6F (7.6C)
Precipitation: 0.20" (5mm)

Storm total precipitation: 3.18" (8.1cm) -- since Tuesday
January precipitation total thus far: 8.41" (21.4cm) -- almost double the monthly average

Thursday, January 26, 2017

and on it goes... (pm.26.jan.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 39.6F (4.2C)
High temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
Precipitation: 1.54" (3.9cm) 

Storm total precipitation: 2.98" (7.6cm) -- since Tuesday
*all stats updated through midnight

**Added @ 9:10pm... Our weakening upper-level low pressure circulation center is right on top of Lahore, Pakistan late this evening, and will move quickly east-northeast and be sheared out over the mountains during the next 12-18 hours or so.  It's going to be a bit touch-and-go overnight into early Friday morning, as a small pocket of colder air moves overhead.  Even now there is some lightning out there, along with continuing light rain showers.  Thus far the snow line and freezing level have remained far above McLeod, but we still have some time to wait and see what might happen before all is said and done.

Gradually improving conditions are expected on Friday, with temps bouncing back quickly again over the weekend into a slightly above normal range for the final days of January.

But the weather pattern continues to look active, changeable and potentially stormy during the next few weeks.  It is still winter.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

a dynamic system... (pm.25.jan.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.0F (7.2C)
High temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
Precipitation: 1.34" (3.4cm) -- final total for the day

**Added @ 8:15pm...  An elongated tough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere extends from Kabul to southwestern Pakistan this evening, with a very strong fetch of mild and moist air flowing north-northeastward ahead of it.  It is quite unusual to get such a taste of mild tropical air like this during late January -- this has the look and feel of a very late February or early March system instead.  As you may have seen today, the snow line is very very high.

Periods of rain and thunder/lightning, will continue off and on overnight and Thursday, with colder air not arriving until Thursday night.  That's when we could see the freezing level come down the mountain slopes, with a chance of a turnover from rain to snow, especially just above McLeod.

By late Friday morning, the upper-level energy and main batch of moisture with this weather system will have shifted just east of us, and that should put an end to the precipitation.  A rapid upward trend in temperatures will occur again over the weekend, putting us back above normal for the season.

Even further ahead, we still have an active pattern to contend with as we move into the first week of February... 

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

sogginess ahead... (pm.24.jan.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.5F (7.5C) -- at 11:50am
High temp: 53.8F (12.1C) -- 8:15am
Precipitation: 0.10" (2mm) 

Added @ 8:55pm... A large weather system is still in its organizational phase late this evening, with the center of a low pressure circulation moving across extreme southern Iran.  A lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea is being tapped into and pulled northward ahead of the circulation center, but also a big blob of very mild air.  This is going to keep our temperatures well above the normal range for a late January weather system, and will probably keep the freezing level quite high uphill until sometime Thursday night or early Friday morning.  

Right now, precipitation amounts are looking big for most of Himachal Pradesh... maybe in the neighborhood of 8-9cm (3 to 3.5") by the time it all comes to an end sometime on Friday.

Monday, January 23, 2017

quiet times ending soon... (pm.23.jan.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 47.5F (8.6C)
High temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
Precipitation: none

The beginnings of our next storm system are visible on satellite pics and upper-level weather charts as a developing low pressure circulation center over the middle of Iran this evening.  It's been nice to enjoy a few days of relatively mild and quiet weather, but all of that will be coming to an end around 24 hours from now.

The main impacts will be felt here in our immediate area between tomorrow evening and Friday morning... with increasing chances of rain and thunder, some very gusty winds at times, and as colder air arrives Thursday night, another chance of a changeover from rain to snow somewhere close to our elevation.  Overall, temperature profiles look to be a bit warmer than they were for our two previous systems this month, but at least for areas up-mountain from us, that's not going to prevent another dose of heavy to very heavy snowfall from occurring.  Good news for the winter snowpack situation.

As of now, it's looking like most of the significant precipitation will have ended by late Friday morning, with a surprisingly quick warm-up expected over the weekend.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

remaining mild... (pm.22.jan.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
High temp: 55.4F (13.0C)
Precipitation: none


1-  55.9F (13.3C) -- 1st JAN
2-  55.4F (13.0C) -- 22nd JAN (today)
3-  54.9F (12.7C) -- 20th JAN
4-  54.6F (12.6C) -- 21st JAN
5-  53.8F (12.1C) -- 2nd JAN

Added @ 8:50pm...  Still keeping an eye on a developing weather system very far to our west, in the vicinity of Iraq, late this evening.  It's not much to speak of at the moment, but an upper-level low pressure center will be developing by late Tuesday over Afghanistan, and will intensify further on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves into central Pakistan.  Right now it's looking like this system is going to tap into a large amount of moisture from the Arabian Sea and pull it northward into the western Himalayan region.  Precipitation amounts should be moderate to heavy in our general area between late Tuesday night and early Friday morning, with much colder air arriving sometime on Thursday as well.  Of course heavy snow is likely in the mountains above us, with rain, thunderstorms, very gusty winds, and chance of rain mixing with and/or changing to snow right here in McLeod during that period........

Saturday, January 21, 2017

clouds, but unseasonably mild... (pm.21.jan.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8F (8.8C)
High temp: 54.6F (12.6C)
Precipitation: none

Even with only dim/filtered sunshine in the midst of a fairly uniform layer of high clouds today, our temps were well above normal for mid-January -- so just think how nice it would have felt if the sun had done a better job at breaking through.

The overall weather pattern across northwest India is in a major stage of transition, as we get set up for the arrival of the next significant storm system by late Tuesday.  In the meantime we'll have more periods of mainly high clouds, but I think there will also be at least a few hours of sunshine mixed in.  Temperatures should remain very mild for the dead-middle of the winter season.

A very deep and intense area of low pressure aloft will begin to drift in from the west for the mid-week period, increasing our risk of rain showers and even some thunderstorm action by Tuesday afternoon or evening.  The very best chances of moderate to heavy precipitation will occur on Wednesday, Thursday, and into early Friday -- with significant snowfall again looking most likely ABOVE Mcleod.  So far this winter we're not getting the right scenario for temps to stay close to the freezing mark long enough to deliver appreciable snow here in town.  But here's another chance to see if there could be any surprises...

Friday, January 20, 2017

big warm-up... (pm.20.jan.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7F (6.5C)
High temp: 54.9F (12.7C)
Precipitation: none

We're in the midst of a nice warm-up, though clouds are going to be an issue over the weekend into early next week.  Thereafter, the next winter storm system will be knocking on the door.  It's looking very wet and much colder again by Tuesday night through early Friday.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

upward temperature trend... (pm.19.jan.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 38.7F (3.7C)

High temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
Precipitation: none

The sunshine today was certainly nice to see, assisting us to our mildest day since Sunday.  It looks like we have embarked on a warming trend that will continue for the coming several days, though an increasing chance of waves of high clouds developing and moving in from the west could keep us from reaching the maximum potential of this incoming air mass.

At any rate, we should have a fairly quiet weather scenario until sometime on Tuesday, when we could start to feel the effects of a very strong storm system that the models are projecting to push into northwest India for the middle/end of next week.  Initially, it's going to be very mild, with rain, and even some thunderstorms possible... but by Thursday into early Friday, temperatures will plunge, with the snow potential back in the forecast.  Of course this system is still 5-6 days away, so all the computer model guidance is sure to do some flip-flopping before settling on a more reliable solution...

stabilizing a bit... (am.19.jan.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 37.8F (3.2C)
High temp: 43.5F (6.4C)
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

Thursday morning low: 38.7F (3.7C)

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

this active january... (pm.17.jan.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 37.2F (2.9C)
High temp: 44.1F (6.7C)
Precipitation: 0.26" (7mm)
Snowfall: trace

Our upper atmosphere is still plagued with some weak disturbances, rotating around a very cold pool of air to our northwest.  This has set off more areas of rain and snow showers all across the western Himalayas today, and we had our share in that late this afternoon and evening.  The precipitation total as of late this evening has been on the light side, as we were expecting, but adds to a January tally that is already well above normal.

It looks like we wont be able to break into a long-term stable type of pattern during the next couple of weeks, but there are indications that we'll see at least a moderate warming trend starting on Thursday, and continuing through the weekend.  After that, we could be dealing with a very stormy mid-winter scenario by the middle of next week -- if extended range models have any kind of clue at all.

Monday, January 16, 2017

unstable and variable... (pm.16.jan.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 33.8F (1.0C)
High temp: 42.3F (5.7C)
Precipitation (melted): 0.76" (1.9cm)
Storm total precip (melted): 0.89" (2.3cm)
Snowfall: 0.6" (1.5cm)

This latest rain and snow event of the past 24 hours has now pushed us well above normal for precipitation for the month of January -- with 15 days to go.  This has been very good news, with a very healthy snowpack now established in the mountains above.  It's been quite a turn of events following our nearly bone dry weather of the fall and early winter seasons.

The pattern is looking changeable and potentially active all the way through the end of the month, with a few more chances of measurable rain and snowfall.  Temperatures should moderate a bit by Thursday and Friday -- and we could have the mildest weather since the first couple of days of the new year by this weekend.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast details.

wet/white monday... (am.16.jan.17)>

There has been a rapid changeover from rain to snow at my location up here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center (shortly after 7:00am).  As we know from last weekend, and many times before, we'll have to see if this is temporary, or a sign of what's to come during the next several hours.

My rain gauge shows 0.73" (1.9cm) of precipitation since last evening around 8:30pm when the first showers appeared, and 0.59" (1.5cm) of that amount has occurred since midnight.

The circulation of our storm system is centered just west-southwest of Srinagar early this morning, with very cold air wrapped into it now, and a good flow of moisture being pulled northward ahead of it.  The best chances for periods of rain and snow will continue until early to mid-afternoon...

Sunday, January 15, 2017

on the verge... (pm.15.jan.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 37.9F (3.3C)
High temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
Precipitation: 0.14" (4mm) 
*stats updated thru midnight

*Update @ 9:45pm... Temp down to 37.9ºC/3.3ºC, and we have light rain in progress.

*Update @ 8:48pm... And now I have light rain.  Temp is 42.6ºF/5.9ºC.

*Update @ 8:30pm... The circulation center of our incoming storm system is located just barely northwest of Multan, in central Pakistan, as of 8:00pm.  A couple of bands of precipitation have developed just east of the center of that low pressure circulation, the first of which is just pushing into western Himachal Pradesh, according to satellite pics.  Although there have already been periods of snow showers higher up in the mountains this afternoon and evening, we should get our first rain showers here at our elevation before midnight.

Saturday, January 14, 2017

rain/snow potential returns... (pm.14.jan.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.3F (4.1C)
High temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
Precipitation: none

The circulation center of an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is located over east-central Iran this evening... and is on its way eastward.  We've seen a big increase in mainly high clouds today, as we were expecting, as this system attempts to tug a warmer air mass northward ahead of it.  Most of the ingredients in association with this latest storm system are not in the same dynamic category as what we were dealing with last weekend, but still, precipitation chances will be on the increase during the coming 24 hours or so.

A couple of the models are showing the freezing level running precariously close to our elevation (again), especially very late Sunday night into mid-day Monday, with the heaviest precipitation expected to occur during that time frame as well.  So we get to keep an eye on the slopes above for the second time this season, to see if that snow line might flirt with McLeod before the wet weather winds down sometime late Monday.

The rest of the week, and month, look to be on the unstable side, so we still have an active pattern ahead of us.

Friday, January 13, 2017

watching the next thing... (pm.13.jan.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 37.2F (2.9C)
High temp: 46.4F (8.0C)
Precipitation: none

It's been another quiet day, with plenty of mid-winter sunshine and temps very close to normal for the middle of January.  But over the weekend we are going to be transitioning back into a wetter weather scenario, as a new upper-level disturbance drops in from the west-northwest.  This system (at least at the moment) looks weaker than the one that brought us all the rain and snow last Friday through Sunday, but weather systems are dynamic and ever-changing, so we have to keep a close eye on things during the coming 72 hours or so.

Clouds should be on the increase late tonight and Saturday, with only a slight chance of some random light rain showers until perhaps mid-day Sunday.  By Sunday evening, more significant rain will become more likely, with that likelihood continuing through most of Monday.  Snow is pretty much a sure bet above Galu Temple, but as we say nearly all the time during January/February, the rain/snow line is always hard to nail down until the precipitation really gets going.

After this system departs, things are looking at least marginally unstable throughout most of next week, but temps should be a bit milder than we've seen recently.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

more wet weather ahead... (pm.12.jan.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 35.7F (2.1C)

High temp: 44.5F (6.9C)
Precipitation: none

This break in the action is a welcome relief for most of us, after the very wet January we've been contending with until just a couple of days ago.  BUT -- it is indeed only a temporary break, because a new storm system will be organizing as we move into the weekend.  Right now it looks like we could see some scattered mainly light rain showers break out as early as Saturday, with the better chance of more significant precipitation holding off until late Sunday through Monday.

The latest data indicates that the vast majority of the snowfall should again remain above McLeod Ganj, with temperatures expected to be perhaps slightly warmer than during last weekend's system.  Having said that, the freezing level here along the front slopes of the mountains is often very unpredictable, so we will have to be in preparation mode as the precipitation cranks up.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

temporarily inactive... (pm.11.jan.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 33.4F (0.8C) -- coldest of the season
High temp: 44.1F (6.7C)
Precipitation: none

The coldest air mass of this 2016/2017 winter season remains in place over Himalayan north India, keeping us just on the cold side of normal for what is fast becoming the middle of January.  We did see a lot of sunshine today, though there was a considerable amount of cloud development (and some isolated snow showers) along the mountains above.

A generally dry and quiet weather scenario will prevail for the next two or three days, with temperatures perhaps climbing just a bit between tomorrow (Thu) and Saturday.  But there is going to be another storm system on the way, which right now is looking a bit weaker, but similar to the one we dealt with last weekend.  The risk of rain showers will be on the increase starting on Sunday, with the best chance of some moderate to occasionally heavy rain and snow between Sunday evening and late Monday night -- at least that's the way the models are painting the picture as of now.

Even further ahead, this rather active January will feature more opportunities for wintry precipitation all the way into the final week of the month.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

the cold side of normal... (pm.10.jan.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 34.7F (1.5C)
High temp: 41.0F (5.0C)
Precipitation: 0.10" (3mm)
Snowfall: trace

Yes, we are still under the influence of the coldest air mass of this winter season -- which has been quite a shock, after the extremely mild weather we've had up until about 5-6 days ago.

The weather pattern will have its ups and downs, but will be generally an active one during the next couple of weeks, with several more chances for measurable precipitation.  We should get a bit of a warming trend during the latter part of this week, but it will still be colder than it has been for most of this winter season.  Get a look at forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, on a tab above.

Monday, January 9, 2017

mid-winter issues... (pm.09.jan.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 35.6F (2.0C)
High temp: 44.6F (7.0C)
Precipitation: trace

November precipitation: NONE
December precipitation: 0.26" (7mm)
January precipitation: 3.96" (10.1cm)

The coldest pocket of air of this entire winter season thus far continues to linger just to our northwest.  It's extremely cold in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, and a weak low pressure circulation aloft will swing overhead tonight through Tuesday, carrying that cold air with it.  Although there is much less moisture available than there was between Friday and early Sunday, we could see some isolated to scattered rain and/or snow shower development overnight and Tuesday, in the midst of variably cloudy skies.

A bit of temperature moderation is expected by Thursday or Friday, but even then we should stay close to the normal range for January.

january chill... (am.09.jan.17)>

My pre-dawn temperature is hovering in the range of 35º-36ºF (2ºC), and we have mostly clear skies.  There has been no additional precipitation overnight, and with temps just barely above freezing, the lingering snow and slush here in the upper part of town continues to melt away.

We should see a good amount of sun this morning -- but very cold air aloft is going to lead to some instability by the afternoon hours, with some cloud development, and maybe even a random couple of rain/snow showers popping up somewhere around the area.

Temperatures are actually a bit below normal for the first half of January, and are not expected to warm up all that much during the coming several days -- though we will see some minor moderation during the latter half of the week.  Still, with more sunshine, it will feel more comfortable than it has the last three days or so.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

weekend drama ends... (pm.08.jan.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 34.1F (1.2C)
High temp: 39.3F (4.1C)
Precipitation: 0.28" (7mm) -- since midnight
Snowfall: 0.7" (1.8cm) -- since midnight

Friday's precipitation total: 1.49" (3.8cm) -- Snowfall: zero
Saturday's precipitation total: 1.70" (4.3cm) -- Snowfall: 0.8" (2.0cm)

TOTAL PRECIPITATION -- FRI thru SUN (melted): 3.47" (8.8cm)
TOTAL SNOWFALL -- FRI thru SUN: 1.5" (3.8cm)


storm system winding down... (am.08.jan.17)>

**Update @ 8:38am...  A very gentle and beautiful fall of light to moderate snow is in progress here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center, as the temp remains just above 34ºF/1.1ºC.

Waking up to 34ºF/1ºC early this Sunday morning -- which is close to what the temp was late last night.  I've got another 1/2 to 3/4" of slushy snow on my terrace this morning, but the rain gauge shows about 0.38" (1cm) of melted precipitation since about 9:00pm last evening.  That brings the total amount of rain and melted snow since Friday morning to 3.45" (8.8cm).

Well the downhill extent of the snow line obviously halted across the upper half of the McLeod Ganj area, with a few inches of snow just above town, and only a bit of slush further down.  We may get another few periods of mainly light rain and snow showers today, but this storm system has pretty much blown itself out, and I think the vast majority of our precipitation has already occurred.  With any luck, we may even see the sun make an appearance today, although maybe just briefly.

Even with better chances of sunshine during the coming week, it's going to stay cold.  Temperatures should be close to mid-January norms for the next several days at least.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

copious precipitation... (pm.07.jan.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 34.3F (1.3C)
High temp: 40.2F (4.6C)
Precipitation since midnight: 1.70" (4.3cm)
Precipitation since Fri morning: 3.19" (8.1cm)
SNOWFALL: 0.8" (2.0cm)
*precip amounts updated thru midnight

Those are a lot of statistics to take in, but it's been that kind of weekend.  We've had a very large amount of precipitation since early Friday morning -- and with the rule-of-thumb that one inch of rain is equal to ten inches of snow, it's a straightforward calculation to see that there has been close to 30 inches (2 and a half feet) of snow up-mountain from us, where temps have been cold enough to keep the precip entirely in frozen form.

Here in McLeod, we stayed just a bit too warm today -- even though it's been the coldest day of the season -- to allow the few hours of beautiful snow to translate into any actual accumulation.  I had about a half inch of slush on my terrace and on tree branches at my location in the upper part of town, with reports of around 4-5 inches of snow in the Dharamkot area.  But, in the main market of McLeod, it was just wet wet wet, despite the big snowflakes during the early afternoon.

The deep low pressure system responsible for this wintry weather is still located over northern Pakistan, due west of Srinagar.  As it very slowly wobbles east overnight and Sunday, it will weaken, and moisture availability will gradual diminish.  Still, if temps dip a bit lower overnight into Sunday morning, we still have a chance of getting a few inches of snowfall here in town.

Further ahead, quieter and brighter conditions are expected next week, though there will be some afternoon instability caused by lingering very cold air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Temperatures should be not far from normal/average -- keeping the winter chill around.

Friday, January 6, 2017

the wet and the cold... (pm.06.jan.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 38.3F (3.5C) -- occurred at 5:45pm (coldest of season thus far)
High temp: 50.7F (10.4C) -- occurred just after midnight
Rainfall: 1.49" (3.8cm) -- total thru midnight

**Update @ 8:15pm...  

The temp at my location in the upper part of town just below the mountaineering center is hovering right around 40ºF/4.5ºC.  The rain showers have intensified again, and winds are gusty.  The snow line remains above McLeod Ganj, but should be lowering overnight.

A strong upper-level low pressure system containing the coldest air of this winter season is located mid-way between Kabul and Srinagar late this evening.  The counter-clockwise circulation is drawing moisture northward, then lifting it upward into the much colder air aloft, and that has caused widespread precipitation development all across the western Himalayas today.  This system is a very slow-mover, and that will keep us in prime position for more wet weather all the way into Sunday.  As colder and colder air becomes entrenched, we're going to have to be braced for a changeover from rain to snow in our general elevation range during the coming 24 to 36 hours.

Heavy snow has already fallen up towards Triund, and it is going to be an interesting night to see how much further downhill that heavy snow might occur.  It could go either way, so as usual, we get to wait and see...

storm system developing... (am.06.jan.17)>

A developing strong and broad area of low pressure in the upper-atmosphere is located just to our west-northwest at the moment.  This system has the look of the strongest storm system (by far) of this winter season, and should make for an interesting weekend.

The last few runs of computer model data are pointing to some moderate to heavy precipitation across Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand between mid-day today (Fri) and Sunday -- combined with a massive plunge in temperatures, which could bring the freezing level close to our elevation.

Of course we all know that it is very hard to nail down the exact placement of the rain/snow line, but from current temperature profile projections, we could find ourselves on the "white" side of that line before Sunday morning rolls around.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

real winter coming??... (pm.05.jan.17)>

Recent daily stats:

                  low                   high                precip
23 Dec   52.5F (11.4C)    60.2F (15.7C)
24 Dec   48.9F (9.4C)      54.6F (12.6C)
25 Dec   39.7F (4.3C)      49.6F (9.8C)          0.26"  (7mm)
26 Dec   44.4F (6.9C)      53.3F (11.8C)
27 Dec   48.4F (9.1C)      56.8F (13.8C)
28 Dec   51.9F (11.1C)    60.2F (15.7C)
29 Dec   52.8F (11.6C)    58.9F (14.9C)
30 Dec   47.3F (8.5C)      54.2F (12.3C)
31 Dec   48.9F (9.4C)      55.3F (12.9C)

**December precipitation total just 0.26" (7mm) -- during 1hr 45mins on Christmas morning.       

1 Jan     46.6F (8.1C)      55.9F (13.3C)
2 Jan     43.0F (6.1C)      53.8F (12.1C)        0.37"   (9mm)
3 Jan     44.4F (6.9C)      49.8F (9.9C)          trace 
4 Jan     44.2F (6.8C)      50.3F (10.2C)        0.12"   (3mm)
5 Jan     45.3F (7.4C)      53.3F (11.8C)

There have been a few episodes of light precipitation since Christmas morning, but a much more significant storm system is going to be moving in on Friday into Saturday, with a better chance of moderate to heavy amounts of rain and snow across most of Himalayan north India...