the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

november: zero rainfall... (pm.30.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Rainfall: none

It's very hazy late this evening, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies, and the highest humidity since the middle of October.  Since around 2:30pm, humidity has bounced above 50%, reaching 56% late this afternoon -- after starting at around 25% early this morning.  We've had a day of constant fluctuations between sunshine and clouds, with the coolest high temp I've recorded in exactly two weeks.

An upper-level disturbance is located over the northwestern corner of Kashmir at the moment, and that's what has stirred up the considerable amount of cloudiness during the past 12 to 18 hours or so.  The feel and smell of moisture is in the air, but it still looks like the risk of any precipitation will remain to our north in the higher elevations overnight.  A slightly cooler air mass is seeping in, as we've been expecting, but even though temperatures will be cooler the next few days, we'll still be running in the above normal range for the beginning of December.

Unless someone witnesses a rogue/random rain drop before midnight, November 2016 will go down in the history books as a TOTALLY DRY MONTH WITH 0.00" OF RAINFALL.  This is something that rarely happens, even during April and November, which are the driest months of the year here in the Dharamsala area, on average.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page for forecast details...

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

minor cooling trend... (pm.29.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.5F (13.1C)
High temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is about 75% overcast this evening as dusk turns to darkness, but those clouds are exclusively of the high and thin variety.  Actually, we had occasional extensive patches of those high clouds all day, with periods of nice sunshine mixed in as well.  This is the third day of a very slow decline in temperatures, though we remain well above where we should be for the end of November.  Humidity was again quite variable -- ranging from 18% early this morning to around 43% during the mid-afternoon.

The latest disturbance in the jet stream flow is just now moving into northwestern Afghanistan, and is expected to move rapidly east-northeastward during the next 36 hours or so.  Once again, occasional waves of high clouds are all we can expect to see from this system, with the risk of some scattered light to moderate showers of rain and snow remaining in the higher mountain areas to our north.  There will be a minor push of cooler air as this system sweeps by, but we've got a long way to go if we want to drop below normal, temp-wise -- so the bit of cooling we get will really be insignificant for the season.

Quiet and dry weather will follow for the weekend, and as it looks, all the way through next week as well.  This dry streak we're experiencing is turning into one of epic proportions, as we will soon cross the mark of 50 rainless days...

As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on a tab at the top of the page.

Monday, November 28, 2016

pleasantly uneventful... (pm.28.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
Rainfall: none

Our late evening sky is totally clear, after a mostly sunny Monday.  There were some patchy high clouds drifting by overhead for two or three hours right in the middle of the day, but the sunshine was definitely the predominant feature.  The high temp was the coolest I've recorded since last Thursday, but we're still running about 7ºF/4ºC above normal for the tail end of November.  There was a rather large variation in humidity levels today -- from 18% this morning, to around 42% during the mid-afternoon.

There's not much to watch in the weather department during the coming several days, and actually, it's been a bit of a stretch to come up with anything at all to be concerned about for the last several weeks.  There is another upper-level disturbance scheduled to sweep across extreme northern India during the mid-week period, but it will do nothing more than increase our high cloudiness potential from late tomorrow through Wednesday night.  Scattered rain and snow showers are being forecast again by the computer models for the highest mountain areas to our north, but the risk of even a drop or two of rain right here in Mcleod will be barely above 10%.

After this little system passes by, temperatures will cool of just a bit.  BUT -- we're still talking about an unseasonably mild air mass as we cross into the new month, with no evidence of a truly substantial plunge in temps on the horizon.

Explore the rest of the blog for lots of other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK which is located on a tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

fantastic for late november... (pm.27.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.2F (14.0C)
High temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
Rainfall: none

For the first time in just over one week, we have mostly clear skies during this hour after sunset -- at the end of a day which featured more sunshine, also, than we've seen in over a week.  Temperatures remain very mild for late November, with both the high and low temps for the day not far from the warmest readings of the entire month.  Humidity ranged between 25 and 40%.

The upper-level low pressure system which kept us in and out of numerous periods of high clouds throughout all of last week has now pretty much dissipated, with its remnants over far northwestern China.  That has allowed a weak ridge of high pressure to build over us, which should provide generally clear skies during the first part of this new week.  Then, we're watching another upper-level disturbance way off to the west -- but this will be a fast-mover, zipping by between late Tuesday and late Wednesday.  Again, we will probably see an increase in mainly high clouds, but as has been the case for the last six or seven weeks, rain chances will be very slim.

In the wake of this mid-week system, temps should cool off a few degrees, but it still looks like we will remain in the above normal range as we head into December.  Amazing that we've still not really dealt with any genuinely cold weather yet this season...

Check tabs above for more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

ridiculously mild... (pm.26.nov.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
Rainfall: none

Today's temperatures were more in line with what we would expect on about the 20th of October.  Yes, it has been extremely mild the last couple of days, even with the considerable amount of high cloudiness we've had to deal with.  We have mostly cloudy skies this evening after dark, but once again there was a lot of back and forth between nice sunshine and waves of high clouds going on throughout the day.  Humidity ranged from 18% this morning, to about 34% during the late afternoon.

In terms of the cloud issues, this past week has worked out exactly according to expectations, but in the temperature department, it has been much warmer than expected.  The colder air mass lurking to our north and northwest which a week ago had looked like it would spill over into our area has failed to do so -- and that has gradually become apparent since about Tuesday or Wednesday.  There have been periods of rain and snow showers in the higher elevations of the western Himalayan ranges the past few days, but the precipitation has avoided us, which has been no surprise.  I still think there is the slightest of chance of a random rain drop or sprinkle in our general vicinity overnight into the first half of Sunday, but let's not hold our breath.

A gradual cooling trend should be the main theme of the coming week, though the amount of cooling we're expecting may not even take us down into the normal range for the November/December transition period.  And rain chances??  Again, not more than a very slight chance on late Tuesday into Wednesday...

Get a look at forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab located at the top of the page.

Friday, November 25, 2016

second-warmest of the month... (pm.25.nov.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 64.7F (18.2C)
Rainfall: none

The warmest day of the month so far was back on the 9th when I recorded a high temp of 66.2ºF/19.0ºC -- but today wasn't very far behind.  There were patchy high clouds off and on today, but we definitely ended up with more sunshine than clouds, with dry and milder air easing up from the south.  Humidity was near the lowest of the season, ranging from 18 to 29%.  This evening, a thin layer of high clouds covers most of the sky, as temps remain far too mild for this time of year.

The upper-level low pressure system we've been talking about all week is finally on the move.  It will progress across the far western Himalayan region during the coming 36 hours or so, winding up in western China by Sunday morning.  This path is too far north to produce any kind of significant weather for us -- other than the fact that we're still in line for more periods, perhaps extended periods, of mid- and high cloudiness between now and Sunday morning.  Rain and snow showers remain in the forecast for higher mountain areas to our north and eventually northeast over the weekend, but our risk of some kind of shower action is only in the range of 10-20%.

A very cold air mass is wrapped up in this system, but that too will have a hard time affecting us this far to the south.  It's looking like our temps will stay well above normal for the end of November into the first several days of December, as this extremely easy-to-take autumn and early winter season continues...

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

inclemency remaining north... (pm.24.nov.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 60.9F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

We have mostly cloudy skies this evening as the last little bit of color fades in the west.  Actually today has been the epitome of what we call 'variable cloudiness', with some dramatic swings between bright sunshine and almost totally overcast conditions a few times between dawn and dusk.  Temperatures were slightly cooler than they were yesterday -- while humidity was just a bit higher, ranging from 18% to 34%.  And for anyone who might be keeping count... today was the 44th consecutive day without one drop of rain.

Some serious early wintertime weather is going on to our northwest across central Asia, thanks to the persistent area of deep low pressure which remains anchored near the southeastern coast of the Caspian Sea.  Temperatures from Iran to northern Kashmir have dropped well below normal for late November, with areas of light to moderate snow showers scattered from Afghanistan into the higher elevations of Kashmir/Ladakh as well.  Here where we sit, we remain in the mild sector of this system, and it is still looking like we will have only the slightest risk of an isolated shower in McLeod itself, perhaps on Saturday.  As far as temps are concerned, the very cold air mass to our north won't make it this far south, keeping us on the warm side of normal for the season as we finish off the month.

Unless we do get a few random rain drops on Saturday, it seems we have a very good chance of logging 0.00" of rain in the November 2016 record books.  

Get the forecast details and other info on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

variable skies... (pm.23.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
Rainfall: none

The variably cloudy skies of the last few days continue... with partly cloudy and hazy conditions late this evening after sunset.  There were a few bright and sunny moments today, but overall, the mid- and high-level cloudiness has dominated, which held our daytime high temp down a bit, compared to yesterday.  Humidity has been at the very lowest of the season the last couple of days -- today ranging from about 16 to 25%.

The main features of our recent weather pattern are still in play; all hinging on a very deep area of low pressure aloft which is stationary just to the east of the Caspian Sea.  Weak to moderate upper-level disturbances continue to be funneled along the fast-moving jet stream flow along the southern periphery of that low pressure center, and that's the reason for the waves/periods of cloudiness we've seen since Sunday.  There have also been some light to moderate rain and snow showers in the very highest elevations of Kashmir/Ladakh into extreme north-northeastern Himachal Pradesh, but none of that has been anywhere close to us up til now.  I'm still holding on to a slight chance of some kind of freak light shower in our vicinity on Friday into Saturday, with the best chances of precipitation remaining north of us.

That sluggish low pressure system will finally get booted into western China, and then dissipate over the weekend, leaving us with a benign westerly flow for much of next week.  Dry.  Mild.  Dull.  Our very long streak of no-drama weather is set to continue.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING (on Thursday) to our American contingent... hope you can scrounge up something good to eat.!!

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

humidity low, temps mild... (pm.22.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few scattered high clouds around the area late this evening, with temperatures remaining very much on the mild side.  In fact, both overnight low and daytime high temps were the warmest I've recorded since the 10th of November, nearly two weeks ago.  We had more high cloudiness streaming across the sky today, but the majority of it was during the morning hours, leaving us mostly sunny during the afternoon.  Humidity was the lowest of this entire post-monsoon season -- ranging from 17% to 27%.  Very dry indeed.

We've been in between upper-level disturbances the last several hours, but there are more on the way during the coming four days.  There remains a deep area of low pressure aloft centered just east of the Caspian Sea, which is forcing a west-southwesterly upper-level flow to stay entrenched across Himalayan north India.  The low pressure system itself is going to remain very far to our north, but wave after wave of disturbances along its southern fringes will keep the periods of mainly high cloudiness tracking overhead, all the way through Saturday.  I still feel confident that we'll miss out on precipitation here in McLeod, but the risk of rain and snow showers will be on the increase during the latter half of this week across higher mountainous areas to our north.  Already there have been isolated moderate snow showers in the higher elevations of Jammu &Kashmir.

The cold air associated with this system is probably not going to extend its influence very far to the south, which means I've been revising forecast temperatures upward, from what we were expecting earlier.  Maybe there are not too many complaints if we continue to run several degrees above normal as we finish off the month of November...

Check out all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located at the top of the page.

Monday, November 21, 2016

waves of high clouds... (pm.21.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)
High temp: 61.8F (16.6C)
Rainfall: none

It's mostly overcast this evening, at the end of a day which featured variable high cloudiness from start to finish.  We did manage to squeeze out some decent periods of sunshine in the midst of it all, but there seemed to always be a good amount of those high, thin cirrus clouds drifting by overhead.  Even with limited sunshine, temps were mild.  In fact, after those few cooler days last week, we've been again running significantly above normal for the latter part of November.  Humidity today ranged from 27 to 36%, which is lower than it's been recently.

A broad and deep area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to dominate the weather pattern across central Asia, and we find ourselves on the southern fringes of that system, as a fast-moving jet stream flow brings wave after wave of high cloudiness across our area.  This system is not really going anywhere during the coming five days or so, and that will keep us in a holding pattern of sorts, with more variable high clouds, and temperatures which are now looking like they will remain milder/warmer than normal for the season.  The colder central Asian air mass we were concerned about is showing signs of reluctance to move further southward.

Rain and snow showers are still a good bet in higher mountain areas to our north -- all the way through Saturday.  So far, there has been no activity breaking out along the Dhauladhars, but that could change by the end of the week.  By Sunday, the pattern should shift yet again, but probably toward even milder weather, not toward more winter-like conditions.

Check tabs above and archives along the right column for other info and historical perspectives...

Sunday, November 20, 2016

an unsettled period... (pm.20.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
High temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Rainfall: none

It's moderately hazy late this evening, with some patchy high clouds overhead.  Our November sunshine was seriously challenged by those occasional waves of high cirrus clouds today, but not totally extinguished.  Humidity was in the range of 33 to 45%, with temperatures just slightly cooler than they've been the last three days.

We're heading into a week which looks like it will be more unsettled than we've seen yet this autumn season, in terms of a good amount of mainly high cloudiness affecting us over the course of the next several days.  But -- it's still looking like the best chances of precipitation are going to remain north of us.  A broad and deep area of low pressure in the upper-atmosphere is building across central Asia, and will remain nearly stationary all the way into next weekend.  Moisture is very limited, but with some fairly impressive dynamics aloft, models are showing of few waves of at least moderate rain and snow in the highest mountain areas of Jammu & Kashmir into northern and eastern Himachal Pradesh between late tomorrow (Mon) and Saturday.  It's really past the normal date for something like this to happen, after this very mild and dry stretch of the last several weeks.

Temperatures will be very dependent on the amount of cloud cover we end up getting, but I think we could see some of the coolest days of the season by the time the weekend rolls around again.

Forecast details are updated twice a day on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

some changes next week... (pm.19.nov.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)
High temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Rainfall: none

There are no clouds at all late this evening, but it is moderately hazy.  It's been a day of almost full sunshine -- the only exception being just a few barely noticeable wisps of high, thin cirrus, and a couple of very tiny cumulus clouds which tried to form along the highest mountain peaks this afternoon.  Temperatures were very similar to yesterday's, with humidity highly variable, between 25 and 50%.

A different kind of weather pattern is going to be slowly taking shape during the coming 5-6 days, which is going to bring a changing scenario across the western Himalayan region.  An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is just now starting to evolve just east of the Caspian Sea, which will hold fairly steady for most of the week across Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.  This will orient the jet stream in such a way as to create increasingly unstable conditions from northern Afghanistan and Pakistan into Himalayan north India as the week progresses.  Up to this point, all of the models are keeping precipitation development just barely to our north, but we're going to have to keep a close eye on that, especially by Thursday and/or Friday.

One thing seems fairly certain -- that we'll have much more cloudiness to contend with starting on Monday into Tuesday.  And with less sunshine, our temperatures will of course be a few degrees cooler.  Anyway, follow along this coming week, as we finally have something a little more interesting to watch...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is located on a tab at the top of the page, along with lots of other info.

Friday, November 18, 2016

38 rainless days... (pm.18.nov.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
High temp: 62.0F (16.7C)
Rainfall: none

Today's high temp was the warmest since eight days ago, but was actually just a degree or two cooler than expected.  It's been another day with sunshine dominating easily, with only the most paltry appearances of any cloudiness of any variety whatsoever.  Humidity ranged from a low of about 26% during the mid-morning, to a high of 42% late this afternoon.

We've now hit 38 days in a row without so much as a single drop of rain, and even though it is the dry season, that's still something quite remarkable.  Most years, we never get a streak of totally rainless days like we are experiencing right now.  And it looks like we stand a very good chance of continuing this rain-free stretch of weather, though that may not be the case in areas up-mountain from us, to the north and northeast.  The models are still advertising a rather significant shift in the pattern next week, with the potential for some moderate snowfall in the higher elevations of Kashmir/Ladakh and northern and eastern Himachal Pradesh.  Right now, it looks like we may escape the precipitation altogether here in McLeod, but much more cloudiness seems to be on the way for us next week.

It's also possible, or even quite likely, that we'll see the coolest temps of the season by Wednesday or Thursday.  But as we get closer to December's arrival, it is time for a more significant cool-down, so this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise...

Follow the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

quiet and agreeable... (pm.17.nov.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 52.7F (11.5C)
High temp: 61.6F (16.4C)
Rainfall: none

We have a clear sky this evening, at the end of a beautiful, sunny day.  Cloudiness was almost totally non-existent for one of the very few days this autumn season, with only the most pathetic attempts at a few traces of cumulus development over the mountain peaks this afternoon.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town was more variable than it's been in recent days, though, ranging from 20 to 40%.

Temperatures today were the mildest since last Friday/Saturday, as the subtle warming trend we were anticipating did indeed materialize.  We should have another day, maybe two, of these relatively milder temps before the next cooling trend sets in.  But we are still looking at very very slim chances of precipitation of any kind here in our immediate area, though the potential for some periods of mainly high cloudiness will be on the increase by late Sunday through Tuesday.

The upper-level pattern does show signs of becoming more active next week, but as of now, it looks like any rain/snow would be confined to the higher elevations to our north.  According to the latest models, we could be looking at the first significant snowfall of the season across higher mountains and passes throughout Kashmir/Ladakh, and even perhaps in Lahaul, Spiti, and Kinnaur of Himachal.  Think about that if you have travel plans in those areas next week -- which of course most people do not.

Forecast details for McLeod are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

moderating trend ahead... (pm.16.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.4F (10.2C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: none

The clear-but-hazy regime that has been in effect the last several nights is underway again this evening -- at the end of a day featuring mostly sunny skies.  Once again we had just a minor amount of PM cloud development along the mountain peaks, and only a few isolated wisps of high cirrus clouds... none of which interfered with the sunshine at all.  But even with all that sun, I recorded a high temp less than 60ºF for the third day in a row, keeping us on a roll with the coolest days of the autumn-into-winter season thus far.  Humidity remained in a narrow range of about 36 to 45%.

This latest cool-down is almost over, however, as some slight warming has already started to occur in the higher levels of the atmosphere, with temperature moderation expected in the lower and middle levels of our air mass as well over the course of the next couple of days or so.  That means we can expect to pop just above normal for mid-November as we finish off the week, after these last few days of slightly sub-average temps.

Our sunny skies could be challenged by a few waves of high clouds from time to time during these coming several days, with Monday and/or Tuesday holding the greatest potential of getting perhaps more clouds than sun.  But as far as rainfall is concerned, the drought should continue, with very little chance of even one single solitary tiny rain drop during the next week - at least.

Check tabs at the top of the page for lots of other info, including forecast details.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

slightly cooler than the norm... (pm.15.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.4F (10.2C)
High temp: 58.2F (14.6C)

Rainfall: none

There's a moderate amount of haze in the air early tonight, otherwise we have clear and cloudless skies.  Even with the predominance of sunshine, today has ended up being the first day of this autumn season that I have recorded temps which are actually slightly BELOW normal.  The cooling trend that kicked in late last week has been for real, and there has been a very noticeable change, especially the last three days or so.  Humidity today was fairly steady in the 40-45% range.

We should stay near seasonal lows, temp-wise, during the coming 24 hours or so, but then it's still looking like we'll see somewhat of a warm-up on Thursday and Friday... though it may not be enough to really make much of a difference.  The overall pattern will remain the same, more or less, all the way through the weekend and deep into next week, though we will see some subtle ups and downs in the temperature department over the course of that time frame.

Apart from some partly cloudy conditions which will pop up in response to little wiggles in the upper-level pattern, there's really nothing else going on.  Extended range models are interesting to watch, as there continue to be threats of a potentially more active pattern evolving toward the end of the month -- but until we get closer, the flip-flopping of those models will probably continue.

Keep an eye on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) for forecast details.

Monday, November 14, 2016

the march toward winter... (pm.14.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 59.8F (15.4C)
Rainfall: none

We have absolutely and totally clear skies across our area this evening, and a full moon will soon be rising, rather dramatically, over the Dhauladhars.  There was only some very minor cumulus development right along the highest mountain peaks this afternoon, otherwise, it's been a day of bright November sunshine.  Even so, temperatures continue to slide... with today's high and low temps again setting the bar for the coolest of the season up til now.  We've reached the time of year when the warmth we feel in the direct sunshine is not a good indicator of the actual temperature of the air.  You only have to step around a corner and into the shade to find out that this air mass is actually quite chilly.

It still looks like we could moderate just a bit on Thursday into Friday, otherwise the temperature trend over the course of the coming ten days or so will be downward.  There's actually an unseasonably cold air mass lurking to our north across central Asia, and we'll be catching just the southern fringes of that as we move into the latter half of the month.

The risk of any kind of significant storm system development remains remote, though all of the models continue to struggle with what might happen after about the 26th of November.  The solutions seem to fluctuate back and forth lately, so we might need to be prepared for some changeable weather somewhere across Himalayan north India by that time.

Check out the rest of the blog for lots of other info, including six-and-a-half years of archived posts along the right-hand column of the page.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

the encroaching chill... (pm.13.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Rainfall: none

There's a bit of haze in the air this evening after sunset, but otherwise we have clear skies, with a nearly full moon on the rise in the east.  Both the early morning low and the daytime high today were the coolest of the season -- the first time I've recorded a high temp LESS than 16ºC.  That, in spite of all the sunshine.  Cloud development was very sparse along the mountains this afternoon, leaving us with a lot of blue sky.  Humidity was very consistent in the range of 30-35% throughout the day.

A dry and generally stable air mass remains well-established from the western Himalayas all the way into the northern Bay of Bengal, as the upper-level flow continues to bring central Asian elements into the Indian subcontinent.  That's what should be happening this time of year, November being the driest month of the calendar year, and it really doesn't look like any kind of significant change in the pattern is in our near future.  Even the hints at some kind of storm system development toward the final several days of the month seem to have evaporated on the most recent model runs.

This coming week promises to be the coolest, on average, of our autumn season, though there could be a small bump in temps right around Thursday into Friday.  But again, I have to emphasize that we are still running near or even slightly milder than normal for mid-November.

Get the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

feeling like november... (pm.12.nov.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy out there this evening -- a mix of mid-level altocumulus clouds and some high, thin cirrus overhead.  Other than cloud development directly over the Dhauladhars starting during the late morning, we had mostly sunny skies during most of the daylight hours, with this more extensive cloudiness only showing up after about 4:30pm.  My high temp is now the new lowest daily maximum of the season, with the average humidity today right in the range of the season's lowest as well, at 26%.

This evening's cloudiness is in association with a broad and slow-moving area of low pressure in the upper-atmosphere which is centered just barely west of Jammu as of 6:00pm.  This time last evening there were some scattered rain and snow showers across northern Afghanistan into northern Pakistan, but the precipitation potential of this system seems to be decreasing as it crawls slowly eastward.  There could be some of that isolated rain/snow shower activity, mainly in the highest elevations, overnight -- but we should see a rapid decrease in clouds toward morning.  The main issue is the cooler air mass which has already begun flowing in, and that means the coolest temps -- both highs and lows -- of the season are on tap for us during the next couple of days or so.

Thereafter, the weather charts are looking uneventful and dull until perhaps the last several days of the month, when computer models are hinting at some kind of storm system possibility across the western Himalayan region.  Plenty of time to watch how that might evolve...

Follow the latest forecast info on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located above.

Friday, November 11, 2016

temps dipping again... (pm.11.nov.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 54.3F (12.4C)
High temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Rainfall: none

Totally clear skies are the order of the evening, with not really any haze at all to speak of.  It was a sunny and blue sky day until the early afternoon, when we did see some cumulus cloud development along the mountains, but that fizzled out just as the sun was setting.  But even with the greater percentage of sunshine than we had yesterday, temperatures were a couple of degrees cooler -- both early morning low and afternoon high.  Humidity at my location dipped all the way down to about 18% during the latter part of the morning, but then rebounded to 40% by mid-afternoon.

The main event over the weekend will be a continued cooling trend, after a period of two or three days of significantly above normal temps during this past week.  A broad upper-level low pressure circulation easing in from the northwest will bring that batch of cooler air along with it, but the serious lack of moisture in this autumn air mass will keep the risk of shower development very low.  I still think there could be some random and isolated shower action (some in the form of snow) in the higher elevations to our north and northeast tomorrow into tomorrow evening as this systems passes overhead, but measurable precipitation in McLeod seems very unlikely.

Next week should be uneventful, with temps running near or slightly above normal for the season.  It looks like there could be something percolating by the final 5-6 days of the month, but that's a very long way off, in meteorological terms...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page for forecast specs.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

only minor issues... (pm.10.nov.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
High temp: 64.3F (17.9C)
Rainfall: none

We've returned to mostly clear skies late this evening, but there was quite a lot of high cloudiness drifting across our autumn sky today, posing a challenge to the sun.  It was rarely entirely overcast, but the filtered sunshine did keep our daytime high a bit lower than yesterday.  Humidity was extremely low all day -- ranging from 20 to 38%.

The latest satellite pics show that streak of high cloudiness departing to the east already, in advance of an upper-level circulation center that will drop into Himalayan north India as the weekend arrives.  This minor system will deliver a fresh batch of slightly cooler central Asian air, though we're still not talking about temperatures which will be below normal for what is fast becoming the middle of November.  I'm stubbornly keeping a slight chance of some kind of rogue/random shower in the forecast for Saturday, but chances are low enough that it's almost not mentionable at all.

All of the computer models going forward from early next week are absolutely devoid of any kind of significant storm system, precipitation, or radical swing in temps -- all the way into the final days of the month.  November IS the driest month of the year, on average, but the way things are going, it could end up even drier than normal.

Peruse the rest of the blog for other info, forecasts and archived data going back to 2010.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

truly spectacular... (pm.09.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
Rainfall: none

A few wisps of high clouds are lingering in the western sky at nightfall, otherwise it's clear -- and the haze is not much of an issue here at our elevation.  It has been a spectacular day, all around, with nearly unlimited sunshine, very low humidity, and temperatures which have rebounded into a range that is quite a bit warmer than normal for this stage of November.  This morning, my humidity reading dipped below 20% for an hour or so, which is the first time I've seen that happening this season.

There are only the most minor fluctuations in our overall weather pattern expected during the coming several days, and if extended range models are to be believed, perhaps all the way until the end of the month.  Currently our temps are a few degrees above normal, but we should see somewhat of a cool-down this weekend -- though it's still not the kind of drop that is going to create much drama.  An upper-level circulation center will slide in from the west-northwest Friday into Saturday, bringing that cooler air, but as of now, it's still looking like the risk of a random shower will be only in the 10-20% range at most.

And that's about all I can find to say tonight.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast details.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

nothing + nothing = nothing... (pm.08.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

Today has been one of the sunniest of the season, with only a few traces of very scraggly cumulus trying hard to develop over the immediate Dhauladhar range this afternoon, along with the smallest traces of high cirrus clouds to the west toward evening.  We've also had some light haze in the area since the mid-afternoon, but it's really not a big deal at all compared to the haze/smog issues further down on the plains.  In case you're interested -- today marks FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW without even one single raindrop.

This is turning into a dry streak of epic proportions around here.  A rainless period lasting this long is something that happens only once a year, at most, and there are many years when we never see so many days in a row without at least a trace of rainfall.  But starting on the 12th of October, a very dry and generally stable air mass moved in, and the persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft has not allowed it to be replaced by anything else.  There is an upper-level disturbance and broad low-pressure circulation expected to move through this weekend, but with the serious lack of moisture availability, there's still only going to be a small chance of some isolated shower action anywhere in our vicinity.

We'll probably see our temps rise a degree or two during the next couple of days, but then the next cooling trend will kick in as that disturbance passes by over the weekend.  Until we get some kind of a storm system that can deposit some snowfall on the mountains, it's going to be difficult for us to experience a major drop in temps.

Keep track of forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Monday, November 7, 2016

the coolest yet... (pm.07.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C)
High temp: 61.4F (16.3C)
Rainfall: none

It's moderately hazy here at our elevation this evening after sunset, but the haze is really a problem downhill.  Otherwise it's been a day of abundant sunshine, with only minor cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon for a few hours.  Humidity has ranged widely -- from 26% during the mid-morning, up to about 45% during the mid-afternoon.  And as far as temperatures are concerned -- the low temp AND the high temp for the day were the coolest I've recorded yet this season.

As warming kicks in in the higher levels of the atmosphere, the air mass near the surface is unable to go anywhere, and that is creating an increasingly stagnant and smoggy atmosphere in the lower elevations to our south.  Maybe you've heard about the problems with very unhealthy air quality in Delhi the last couple of days.  Fortunately for us, we're high enough to stay above the worst of it, and should see a predominance of November sunshine for the rest of the week.  There could be some high clouds streaming in from the west, especially by Thursday or so, but overall, it looks like smooth sailing.

We may be close to bottoming out, temp-wise, with a bit of a moderation expected for the remainder of the week.  The next thing to look out for will be a broad, slow-moving upper-level circulation easing in over the weekend... but once again, an absence of any kind of significant moisture will keep rain chances very low.

Monthly climatology stats and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK are available on tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

easy to deal with... (pm.06.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 53.6F (12.0C)
High temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
Rainfall: none

A typical early November evening is in full swing, with clear skies and seasonably cool temps.  My low temperature in the upper part of town was the coolest I've recorded yet this season, and the high temp was the second-coolest.  There was quite a bit of afternoon cumulus development along the Dhauladhars -- again -- but here in McLeod itself, we had unrestricted sunshine throughout the day.  Humidity was fairly steady right around 40-42%, which has been very common recently.

A very quiet and uneventful week is shaping up for us, with this west-northwesterly upper-level flow pattern remaining firmly and concretely entrenched.  We'll start to see some subtle warming aloft as the week goes on, which should decrease the amount of mountain cloudiness during the PM hours, providing even more sunshine for the higher elevations above town.  Rain chances should be close to ZERO until Saturday.  Then, there will be the next upper-level disturbance/circulation easing in from the northwest, which could give us a 10-20% chance of a random shower.  Not much to get all that worked up about.

Temperatures, though near the coolest we've yet experienced this season, are still actually a bit above normal.  And starting on Tuesday, we might moderate a couple of degrees, until the next slight cool-down over the weekend.  Mother Nature is going easy on us so far.......

Get the latest forecast specs on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located above.

Friday, November 4, 2016

dry and slightly cooler... (pm.04.nov.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
High temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
Rainfall: none

There are a few traces of mid-level cloudiness around the area early tonight, otherwise we've got a clear sky.  The recent rebound in temperatures was arrested today, as we catch the leading edge of a slightly cooler air mass which will be settling across Himachal Pradesh over the weekend.  Scattered cloudiness of all varieties was in and out of the picture throughout the day, but still, the sunshine managed to hold the majority.  At my location in the upper part of town, humidity was fairly steady, right around 40%.

A broad trough of low pressure aloft is settling southward across the western Himalayas at the moment, with a few weak circulations rippling along the jet stream flow.  There's very little moisture or thermodynamic energy for any of this to tap into, and that's why the slight increase in clouds has been the only evidence that anything at all is going on.  Satellite pics indicate some rain and snow shower activity happening in the higher elevations well to our north and northeast, but only on an isolated basis.

We're expecting our temperatures to drop just a couple of degrees or so, both daytime highs and early morning lows, over the weekend into early next week -- but actually, we should still be on the high-side of normal for the first part of November.  Our extended dry streak is on its way to being four weeks long... and extended range model data shows very little risk of precipitation for at least another 8-9 days.

Keep tabs on the daily forecast specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, located above.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

awaiting something cooler... (pm.03.nov.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Rainfall: none

The waxing crescent moon is bright and vivid again this evening in the southwestern sky, and Venus continues to be our very bright evening star, also visible to the southwest.  We have totally clear skies again as night settles in.  Humidity readings today were lower than they've been in nearly two weeks -- as low as 28% at mid-morning, and then only up as high as 42% toward the late afternoon.  We had very feeble cumulus cloud development over the mountains this afternoon, so the early November sunshine was pretty much unhindered.

Our temperatures have been rebounding by a couple of degrees since the start of the new month, but we are on the verge of the next tick downward, as a shift southward in the jet stream pattern occurs starting tomorrow... continuing over the weekend.  Colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere is seeping southeastward, as some ripples of energy traverse along in the upper-level flow.  This evening there is some high cloudiness showing up on satellite pics to our west-northwest, so we could see some of that moving in late tonight, through Friday.  There is also still a risk of a brief, random, isolated shower somewhere around the area tomorrow into tomorrow night, but I will be very surprised if there is anything in the rain gauge to show for it.

A return to nearly total stability is scheduled for the latter half of the weekend... which should stay with us all the way through next week.  It's a very calm and comfortable autumn pattern we find ourselves in, and major deviations from that are not expected at least through the middle of the month...

Lot of other info can be found on tabs above, and on archives on the right-hand column of the page.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

beautifully boring... (pm.02.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
High temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
Rainfall: none

It's totally clear late this evening, with a beautiful, vivid crescent moon visible in the southwestern sky.  It's been a mostly sunny Wednesday, with cloud development over the mountains this afternoon remaining very much under control, and dissipation happening rapidly during the hour before sunset.  Temperatures have actually been climbing slightly (both high and low) the last 2-3 days, which is keeping us running comfortably above normal for the start of November.  Humidity was again fairly steady between 45 and 50%.

It really is snooze-ville on the weather front these days, as we get to enjoy the most dry and quiet and pleasant weather of the entire year.  Our dry streak is now close to the longest of 2016 (the previous being from January into February), and the combination of temperature and humidity has kept us very much in the comfort zone for the autumn season.

There's some rather potent upper-level energy projected to drop in from the northwest this weekend, however, and if there was any kind of marginally significant moisture available, we might see some isolated to scattered thundershower action popping up between late Friday and mid-day Saturday.  But that is not the case, so I think we'll only have a slight chance of a random, brief, light shower somewhere around the area during the first part of the weekend.  We will see our next drop in temps, however, which will move us closer in the direction of normal/average for this time of year.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

dry season, for real... (pm.01.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.9F (12.7C)
High temp: 63.6F (17.6C)
Rainfall: none

A couple of clouds are lingering just along and above the mountain peaks as darkness settles in tonight, otherwise we have clear skies, with that inversion layer visible down below.  November 2016's debut featured lots of sunshine, with only the obligatory build-up of cumulus right along the Dhauladhars for a few hours during the afternoon.  My high temp was exactly the same as yesterday's, with humidity averaging in the 48-50% range.

It has now been three full weeks since we last saw a single raindrop around here, so I think it is fairly apparent that we're getting a genuine dry season this autumn, unlike in some years in the recent past.  Although there have been minor fluctuations in the overall weather pattern, the theme has remained the same -- a west-northwesterly flow aloft, with an air mass severely lacking in the moisture-availability department.  There shouldn't be any dramatic departures from the existing scenario during the coming ten days to two weeks -- or more.  Random wiggles and jiggles in the upper-level pattern which could contain some relatively colder air aloft might threaten us with a random shower as they pass, but there is nothing even remotely resembling a significant storm system during these first couple of weeks of November.

I'm keeping the risk of one or two of those random showers in the forecast between late Friday and Saturday, but frankly, the chance is almost too low to even mention.  We'll watch it, though, since there isn't anything else to watch.  Temperatures should remain fairly stable until Friday, when we will probably drop down another notch or two, in line with the approach of our winter season...

Check tabs along the top of the page for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.