Tuesday, March 19, 2019

increasing thundershower risk... (pm.19.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 51.3ºF (10.7ºC)
High temp: 64.1ºF (17.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

There was a greater percentage of sunshine today than expected (no complaints), and that allowed temperatures to end up a bit warmer than expected as well.  I've now recorded four days in a row with temps above 60ºF (16ºC), and I think we'd all agree that it's been much more pleasant and comfortable.

A rather intense storm system is centered over south-central Turkmenistan this evening, and will be weakening as it pushes east-northeastward during the coming 48hrs or so.  Models had been showing some thundershower development in our vicinity to be starting by now, but the latest data indicates that will be holding off until after midnight, at least.  If and when we do get those thundershowers, temperatures will fall significantly, erasing the gains we've enjoyed the last few days.  That risk of precipitation will be around tomorrow (Wed) and tomorrow night -- and possibly even into Thursday, which is Holi, and also the official first day of Spring.

But rebounding temps are in the forecast through the weekend into early next week.. 

Monday, March 18, 2019

another high for the year... (pm.18.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2ºF (10.1ºC)
High temp: 64.2ºF (17.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

I registered another new high temp today for the season and the year... with assistance coming from totally sunny skies into the early afternoon, enhancing a milder air mass nosing in from the south.  Shower development was confined to the higher elevations this afternoon, though we did take part in an increase in cloudiness.

We'll continue in this variety-mode tomorrow (Tue) -- with a mix of clouds and sun and a slight chance of a shower or thundershower late in the day.  But there is another storm system on the way which will give us a better chance of rain showers and thunder on Tuesday night and Wednesday... with a chance of some random thundershowers lasting into Thursday as well.  Thursday happens to be HOLI, and also the Spring Equinox.

It has been so nice to get a taste of some milder/more pleasant temperatures, and in spite of a set-back during the mid-week period... we should resume our warming trend by the weekend.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

a march mix... (pm.17.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.4ºF (9.1ºC)
High temp: 61.0ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

We've had all kinds of variety today... with a brief shower along with very gusty winds just before sunrise this morning... lots of cloudiness into the late morning... then a good amount of sunshine mid-day into the late afternoon... a period of light thundershowers this evening... and finally, a return to partly cloudy skies after dark.  For the second day in a row I recorded a high temp above 60ºF (16ºC) -- and that's the first time that's happened this year.

There's nothing all that new to report, as we remain under the influence of a relatively unstable atmosphere... in spite of these milder temperatures.  Look out for the risk of isolated/passing thundershowers tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday as well, with a better chance of more persistent/consistent rain/thundershowers Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Even the latter part of the week will feature unstable conditions with a decent chance of a passing thundershower or two... but it looks like our temps will be a bit milder into next weekend.

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

tops for 2019... (pm.16.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9ºF (8.3ºC)
High temp: 62.1ºF (16.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

I recorded the mildest/warmest high temp of 2019 early this afternoon, in the midst of sunshine and patchy high cloudiness.  There's still a bit of a chill in the air, but it was nice to see the thermometer climbing a bit.

Our overall pattern remains disturbed, however, and that means we're going to see some cloudy periods, along with occasional chances of some periods of showers and/or thundershowers during this upcoming week.  There are no major storm systems threatening, but disturbances in the upper atmosphere rippling through, combined with at least a moderate amount of moisture availability will keep us a bit on our toes.  It still looks like the best chance of showers exists in the window between late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for details.

Friday, March 15, 2019

fighting forward... (pm.15.mar.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.6ºF (5.9ºC)
High temp: 57.2ºF (14.0ºC)
Precipitation: 0.03" (less than 1mm)

Well... it was another one of those classic McLeod Ganj days that featured seductive sunshine until mid-day, and then the development of clouds and mountain thundershowers in the afternoon to spoil the mood.  Even though we had that period of showers, very small hail, gusty winds and thunder off-and-on for a little more than an hour in the 3:00-4:00pm range, the actual rainfall amount was very small at my location here in the upper part of town.  Then... rapid clearing occurred as the evening set in.

The temperature trend this month has been generally upward, even though we've had some significant set-backs in the midst of it.  That scenario will continue as we progress through the coming week or so, with that almost ever-present risk of a random thundershower, and an even more significant chance of rain coming in between late Tuesday and late Wednesday.  Holi is on Thursday, coinciding this year with the Spring Equinox -- and there is evidence that those events could mark a noticeable turn toward a more favorable springtime weather pattern.  We shall see if that outlook holds.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

disturbed pattern persists... (pm.13.mar.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC) -- at 7:05pm
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC) -- at 4:50am
Precipitation: 0.13" (3mm) -- updated thru midnight

It was quite mild early this morning, in advance of our latest incoming storm system.  Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day led to a few sprinkles of rain around noon, and then some actual showers by mid-afternoon, which increased slightly in intensity during the evening hours.  We've also had some very gusty winds at times.  The day's low temperature occurred during a brief heavier rain shower shortly after 7pm.

The center of an upper-level low pressure circulation is located over extreme northern Afghanistan right now, channeling a moderate amount of moisture up against the western Himalayan ranges.  We're still stuck in a pattern featuring wave after wave of these upper-level disturbances, with only a couple of days of relatively pleasant weather in between.  This latest disturbance will keep scattered rain showers in the forecast overnight and tomorrow (Thu), though it's possible we could see more sunshine tomorrow than we saw today.  Things look gradually better on Friday, and then relatively quiet and significantly milder on Saturday -- but the risk of showers will increase again on Sunday... and again by late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Still waiting for that elusive breakthrough that will usher in a true change of seasons.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

ups and downs... (pm.12.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2ºF (6.8ºC)
High temp: 57.0ºF (13.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

It was really nice to have a genuinely sunny day... one of the few we've been able to experience in a long time.  There was a bit of cumulus development along the Dhauladhars during the afternoon, but none of that got anywhere close to producing any precipitation.

Unfortunately, our atmosphere will be destabilizing again during the day tomorrow (Wed), with another chance of some shower development by late afternoon or evening, and a better chance of rain overnight into Thursday.  The latest models indicate instability lingering all the way into Friday as well, so expect fluctuations between clouds and sun with the threat of random showers.  The point is, we're still not breaking into an extended streak of dry weather, even if our overall temperature trend will be generally upward in the long-term.

Monday, March 11, 2019

fickle/changeable pattern... (pm.11.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 41.7ºF (5.4ºC) -- at 2:45pm
High temp: 51.6ºF (10.9ºC) -- at 10:20am
Precipitation: 0.29" (7mm)

It's been an upside/down kind of day (see stats above) -- I recorded the day's high temperature during the mid-morning, with the low temp occurring during a period of moderate rain showers during the mid-afternoon.  Those rain showers got going pretty much according to expectations, but things have cleared out already this evening.

This recent storm system has really picked up the pace, and seems to be moving out much earlier than expected.  There could still be some rain and/or thundershower development overnight and tomorrow (Tuesday), but the upper-level low pressure center is weakening rapidly and lifting northward, and should allow some stabilization to occur between now and late Wednesday.  Yet another storm system moving in from the west will increase our rain chances again between Wednesday evening and early Friday... so we're going to be dealing with a lot of back-and-forth stuff in the coming days.

But in the long run, you can see on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK that our overall temperature trend will be upward during the coming week...

Sunday, March 10, 2019

rain risk rising again... (pm.10.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8ºF (8.8ºC)
High temp: 60.9ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: none

We fell short, by less than one degree fahrenheit (and just a fraction of a degree celsius), of the warmest day of 2019... but it was not only the second-warmest day of the year, but also the second-warmest since about the middle of DecemberAbundant sunshine during the morning gave way to quite a lot of cloud development by around 1:30-2:00pm, which lingered through the rest of the afternoon into the evening.  Skies have cleared out again with stars appearing after dark, however.

A well-defined storm system is visible on this evening's satellite pics, centered along the Iran/Afghanistan border.  This system is going to bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms into our area by mid-day Monday, with the best rain potential between late afternoon and very early Tuesday morning.  With clouds and showers, of course our temperatures will be cooling off again.

The risk of showers will decrease a bit, temporarily, from late Tuesday through Wednesday, but then we'll have an increasing chance of rain/thunder Wednesday night into early Friday.  And at least as of right now, drier weather and milder temps are teasing us as next weekend approaches.

Saturday, March 9, 2019

near-term positives... (pm.09.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7ºF (6.5ºC)
High temp: 58.3ºF (14.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning gradually gave way to partly cloudy skies during the late morning -- with the temp at my location in the upper part of town climbing to the highest I've recorded since a very brief spell of mild weather on the 13th of Feb.  But then there was some rogue thundershower development which produced a rain shower with some very small hail during the mid-afternoon.  All of that action quickly dissipated though, with mostly clear skies again by the evening.

We're still poised for the mildest/warmest day of the season and the year tomorrow, Sunday, Uprising DayWarming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, along with a minimal amount of moisture availability, will provide us with a good amount of sunshine and only the slightest risk of a brief afternoon shower.

A destabilizing atmosphere is on the way again by the middle of Monday, however, with a good chance of a few periods of rain and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday.  And unfortunately, the models have been trending toward a variably cloudy and off-and-on showery/thundery pattern through most of next week.  The good news is that our temperatures should bounce back nicely whenever the sun peeks through.  More incremental hints of spring.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

a moderating trend... (pm.07.mar.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2ºF (6.2ºC)
High temp: 56.1ºF (13.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

We've had no precipitation right here in McLeod for the second day in a row (wow), but there were rain and snow showers with thunder in the higher elevations not only along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, but also along most of the higher mountain ranges of Himachal, Kashmir and Uttarakhand.  Our temperatures continue their slow and gradual moderation.

That trend toward milder weather will persist during the coming two or three days, though there will continue to be a mentionable risk of a couple of passing rain showers tomorrow (Fri) into Saturday.  Right now Sunday is looking very nice, with a good amount of sunshine, and temperatures near or exceeding the warmest we've experienced in 2019 so far.

A new storm system will threaten us with a period of more significant rain and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday... but it should move out by the middle of next week, with a surge of dry and pleasant springtime weather expected thereafter.

Check details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, above.

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

struggling upward... (pm.06.mar.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8ºF (6.0ºC)
High temp: 54.4ºF (12.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning hours gave way to rapid cloud development over the mountains again today... but fortunately, the precipitation remained further up-mountain from us, with some significant rain and snow showers in the higher elevations along the Dhauladhars.  My high temp was the mildest I've recorded since the 23rd of Feb.

We're not having a rapid and dramatic swing toward more springtime conditions, but the incremental changes during the coming week to ten days are looking rather encouraging.  We've still got a mentionable risk of some rain showers in and around our area all the way through the upcoming forecast period, but there will also be some nice periods of sunshine, with a general moderation in temperatures.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) contains forecast details.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

seasonal battles... (pm.05.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.6ºF (4.8ºC)
High temp: 51.4ºF (10.8ºC)
Precipitation: 0.20" (5mm)

What a great early-mid morning we had... with brilliant sunshine and milder temperatures.  But -- with very cold air aloft, there was literally an explosion of cloudiness during the hour before noon, with the first round of sprinkles and light rain showers getting going right at mid-day.  That led to a healthy round of rain showers and thunder between about 12:30 and 2:15pm... followed by clearing and another dose of sunshine during the mid-late afternoon... and then yet another round of showers/thunder during the evening between 5:00 and 6:30pm.  All the while, the sun was shining not far downhill.

A massive temperature disparity exists along the western Himalayas... with very cold air entrenched to our north-northeast, and milder/warmer air building to our south.  We are stuck right in the middle, which means we are in the zone of major instability.  This situation is not going to ease up in the near future, so it looks like we are still in line for a wide variety of weather conditions -- sun, clouds, the threat of rain/thunder showers, as temperatures attempt to very slowly moderate.

We may break into some stable and significantly milder and drier weather (temporarily) over the weekend... but the pattern remains volatile and changeable until at least the middle of the month.

Monday, March 4, 2019

atmospheric conflicts... (pm.04.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.9ºF (4.4ºC)
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.40" (1cm) -- updated thru midnight

A batch of thundershowers developed just to our southwest this evening, and has been hanging overhead for a couple of hours now.  We also had a couple of periods of showers early this morning, and some rumbling thunder during the mid-afternoon.  But in addition to all that, there was also a good amount of sunshine in the midst of the cloudiness today, which boosted the high temp on my thermometer a few degrees higher than expected right around the noon hour.

A sprawling and expansive area of low pressure and very cold air aloft is keeping our atmosphere very unstable -- especially with the increasing strength of our early March sunshine warming up the surface layers during the daylight hours.  We are now into the time of year when lingering winter elements are battling against the advance of springtime air building further south across the Indian sub-continent.  There are several opportunities for some scattered showers to develop during the coming week, but at the same time, it looks like there will be a slow/gradual moderation in temperatures.

It still appears that we could see some fairly significant movement toward generally drier and warmer weather as we move into the middle of the month.  Let's hope that pans out.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

unstable conditions... (pm.03.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 38.5ºF (3.6ºC)
High temp: 49.2ºF (9.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.31" (8mm)
Storm total precip: 1.06" (2.7cm) -- since Saturday morning

Most of today's measurable rainfall occurred before dawn, though we did get a few passing/fleeting light showers (with some thunder) off and on during the day.  There was also a lot of variability between clouds and sunshine.

The vast majority of moisture associated with this current upper-level storm system has swept well east of us, but our atmosphere is going to remain quite unstable during the next couple of days, and that will keep the mention of some mainly light rain shower development in the forecast.  The cloud/sun battles that we've seen so much of recently will continue as well, thanks to that instability.

This chilly air mass is not going to be in a big hurry to depart, though there are indications that we'll see some noticeable moderation in temperatures toward the end of this week.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specifics.

Saturday, March 2, 2019

wetness... (pm.02.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.2ºF (4.0ºC) -- at 8:00pm
High temp: 49.1ºF (9.5ºC) -- at 3:45am
Precipitation: 0.75" (1.9cm) -- *updated through midnight*

It's been a crazy day, temperature-wise, with the high occurring during the wee hours of the morning, and the low occurring just recently.  With full cloudiness, no sun, and increasing rain showers, those temps have been gradually sliding all throughout the day.  Steady light rain has been falling since about mid-afternoon, though as of right now, the amount in the rain gauge isn't all that impressive.

But -- the bulk of rainfall with this incoming system is expected to happen overnight into tomorrow (Sun) morning, so the precipitation total you see in the stats above is going to increase significantly.  The center of this latest storm system is located way off to our northwest over central Asia, but it has tapped into a lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea which is being drawn northeastward and wrung out all along the western Himalayan ranges.  The snow line should stay above us this time around, but accumulations of snow up-mountain will be on the order of one to two feet, and maybe more, by Monday morning.  

Unstable conditions will keep us flirting with lingering rain/snow showers in our general area both Monday and Tuesday, though we should see some sunshine returning as well.  The latter part of the week should feature a gradual trend toward some milder weather... but it will likely be the following week before we have the potential to see a more noticeable change of seasons.

Friday, March 1, 2019

more rain ahead... (pm.01.mar.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 39.0ºF (3.9ºC)
High temp: 52.4ºF (11.3ºC)
Precipitation: none

This first day of March featured a lot of beautiful blue sky and sunshine during the first half of the day, with the mildest temps since last Saturday.  Clouds gradually thickened up during the PM hours, however, with temperatures sliding slightly, and totally overcast conditions well before sunset.

The next in a seemingly endless series of storm systems is taking shape to our west right now, and the latest computer model data would suggest that we could see some rain shower development by around noon tomorrow (Sat).  There will be more moisture drawn into this system than we saw during the last one -- but temperatures are not expected to be nearly as cold.  That will of course keep the snow line much further up-mountain until the very final stages late Monday into Tuesday, as some colder air tries to threaten us, temporarily.  It's going to be a rather long period of off-and-on wet weather, with numerous periods of showers and thundershowers expected during that mid-day Saturday through Tuesday time frame.

There are hints of a better-looking realignment of our weather pattern by the latter part of next week, which could lead to our first preliminary tastes of real springtime weather as we head into the second week of March.  Something to look forward to???