the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

closing down march... (pm.31.mar.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Rainfall since 7:00am: trace
24 hour rainfall: 0.20" (5mm)

Clouds are prevalent across the area at sunset this evening, and there have been a couple of brief sprinkles of rain recently.  We only managed to squeeze out a very minor amount of sunshine today in the midst of all these clouds, but at the same time, we also only managed to squeeze out a few raindrops.  So it has turned out to be the 'in between' kind of day that we were expecting.

I have no great news to report, really.  We are going to stay in this unstable and potentially volatile weather pattern all the way through the weekend, with a few more waves of significant rain and thunderstorms in our future.  The next notable upper-level disturbance will enter the picture tomorrow (Wed), giving us an increasing chance of rain by mid-day into the afternoon hours, which will last into early Thursday morning.  Then, another stronger disturbance is still targetted for late Thursday night through Friday and Friday night.  Beyond that, general instability will keep the risk of scattered showers and thundershowers in the forecast on Saturday and Easter Sunday as well.  In  the meantime, temperatures will remain on the order of 7-10ºF (4-6ºC) below normal for the early days of April.

There are some sluggish attempts at a warming and drying trend as next week unfolds, but unfortunately, it's nothing definitive.  It may take us another eight or nine days before we can even think about 70ºF+ again.

The gloomy details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

slightly better, temporarily... (am.31.mar.15)>

It is mostly cloudy at sunrise this morning, though there are a few breaks in the overcast. Light rain showers lingered for most of the night -- until just before 5:00am -- but my rain gauge indicates only 0.20" (5mm) during the past 12 hours.  That brings our total rainfall since this rainy spell began very early Sunday morning up to 1.18" (3.0cm).  I'm recording a very chilly overnight low temp of 46.9F (8.3C), but it's 50.0F (10.0C) at the moment.

Our change to a more active and inclement weather pattern has been hard to get adjusted to, after all of those gorgeous days in a row last week.  But it's the new reality.  It still looks like we may get somewhat of a break in the action today, which may last into mid-day Wednesday, before the next significant disturbance slides in to northern India from the west.  A couple of showers are not out of the question today into tonight, but I think it's looking better during this next 24 hours or so.  The potential for heavier rain and thunder will increase dramatically by tomorrow (Wed) afternoon, with that higher rain risk continuing into early Thursday morning.  Then there could be another brief break before the next in this series of disturbances arrives late Thursday night or early Friday morning.  The week is unfolding pretty much according to expectations, with measurable rainfall appearing likely each 24-hour period all the way into the weekend.  Some sunshine in between these rainy periods will be nice to see -- but don't get too attached to it.

The disturbance on Friday into early Saturday could be the strongest of all, with a good chance of some heavy rainfall and intense thunderstorms.  But there are hints that things will begin to calm down a bit by Sunday, with some kind of slow improvement getting underway next week.  Temperatures, needless to say, will remain well below seasonal averages until we can get this overall pattern to change.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info can be found on tabs above.

Monday, March 30, 2015

more like end of feb... (pm.30.mar.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 49.3F (9.6C)
High temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
Rainfall since 7am: 0.05" (1mm)
24 hour rainfall: 0.46" (1.1cm)

Our sky is partly to mostly cloudy this evening, and there have been some sprinkles and very light rain showers within just the past hour or so.  All day long we've been dealing with brief periods of very light rain showers, though there have been some nice periods of sun breaking through in the midst of the cloudiness as well.  The rainfall tally since this morning's report has been unimpressive -- but I've now logged close to one inch (2.5cm) of rain since the first showers and thundershowers developed during the wee hours of Sunday morning.  Temperatures today were closer to normal for the very end of February instead of the very end of March.

The first in a series of upper-level disturbances is located over eastern Punjab right now, and is gradually weakening and ceasing to be an issue for us.  There could still be a couple of periods of showers and/or thunder tonight, but it does seem like we may find ourselves in an 'in between' phase on Tuesday into early Wednesday -- with a lower likelihood of rain, and maybe even a decent amount of sunshine.  Temperatures may rebound slightly, but will remain well below normal for the March-to-April transition.

The next disturbance and batch of moisture will head our way by mid-day Wednesday, bringing us our next round of showers and thundershowers.  There could be another break on Thursday, before an even stronger system moves across northern India on Friday and Saturday with what looks to be a good chance of some periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunder.  I am still hopeful for some kind of a positive trend setting in either on Easter Sunday or the following Monday -- but it's going to take until at least the middle of next week for our temperatures to rise back to where they should be for the season.

Check tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

a week of instability... (am.30.mar.15)>

It seems like there are a few breaks in the overcast just before sunrise on this Monday morning, otherwise it's mostly cloudy.  We've had an active night, with numerous periods of rain showers and some very sharp cracks of thunder at times.  Despite all the noise, my rain gauge shows just 0.41" (1.0cm) in the past 12 hours -- with a total of 0.93" (2.4cm) since about 2:00am on Sunday morning.  As far as the thermometer is concerned, I've recorded an overnight low temp of 49.3F (9.6C) here on Tushita Road in the upper part of town.

The center of an upper-level low pressure circulation is very near Amritsar at the moment, and has supplied the dynamic energy for all this shower and thundershower action recently.  It is also the first of several disturbances which will be moving across northern India between now and the weekend.  There is a moisture supply available, and there is also some colder air in the upper-atmosphere that will team up with these disturbances to keep things quite unstable for us all week long.  The showers and thundershowers will be the 'come and go' variety, so i still don't think we're talking about extended periods of continuous rain -- just be prepared for rain potential on any given day, at any given hour.  There are indications that we could see somewhat of a decent break in the action tomorrow (Tues), but the timing of these individual disturbances is really hard to pin down exactly... so we're going to have to take it day by day.

According to the latest data, Friday is looking particularly wet, with maybe a gradual upward turn as we head toward Easter Sunday, and especially into Monday and Tuesday of next week.  Our temperatures which were well above normal for this time of year have already dropped to below normal levels... and they should stay several degrees cooler than average until perhaps sometime next week.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

cooler and wetter... (pm.29.mar.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 67.6F (19.8C)
Rainfall: 0.52" (1.3cm) -- since midnight

We have totally overcast skies this evening, with a few very light rain showers scattered around.  Although there have only been a few brief glimmers of dim sunshine today, the clouds haven't yielded all that much rainfall -- I've recorded only 0.07" (2mm) since this morning's report.  The vast majority of the total since midnight (above) occurred between about 2:00 and 5:00am.  Still, we did have off-and-on mainly light rain showers throughout the day, along with gusty winds at times.  Today's high temp occurred shortly after midnight, but the clouds and occasional showers kept us in the neighborhood of 60ºF/16ºC for most of the day.

If you're a regular reader of the blog, then you've been following along as we've been anticipating (and dreading) this major turn of events.  The high pressure ridge which provided us with about 11 days of gorgeous springtime weather is now a thing of the past.  Right now there is a strong upper-level disturbance/circulation moving from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan, and it's the game-changer that is causing the whole upper-level pattern to become realigned.  We're in for an extended spell of unsettled/unstable conditions that will bring us several periods of rain and thunderstorms between now and next weekend.  As I've been reiterating, it's not going to rain continuously all week, but we probably won't ever be more than 24 hours away from a significant round of showers/thunder -- which means that it could happen on any given day or night.  If there is a bright spot, it could be between tomorrow (Mon) evening and Tuesday night.  At least right now, that seems to be a potential 'in between' phase.

Our temperatures have already obviously dropped considerably, and will now remain well below normal (which is near 71ºF/22ºC) for the next ten days or so.  I think there's a pretty good chance that we could get some periods of sun in the midst of this long-term unstable period... so let's hope for that.

As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) contains the forecast details.

backward steps... (am.29.mar.15)>

It has begun.  We have mostly cloudy skies at sunrise this morning, and already there has been a significant round of showers and thundershowers which moved in shortly after 2:00am.  My rain gauge is showing 0.45" (1.1cm), though the rain seems to have stopped for now.  Temperatures have indeed been on a roller-coaster -- I'm recording a low of 51.6F (10.9C) which occurred during the rain, but it's bounced back up to 60.6F (15.9C) as of 6:50am.

An upper-level circulation over Afghanistan is the culprit behind this unpleasant turn of events, weather-wise.  The big ridge of springtime high pressure which brought us more than a week and a half of warm and beautiful conditions is now breaking down as this major change in the upper-level pattern occurs.  Although I am hopeful that we'll still be able to squeeze out some periods of sunshine here and there, the scenario for the next week or so is looking very unsettled and unstable, as several waves of upper-level energy combined with batches of moisture move across northern India.  This will keep us dealing with periods of rain and thunderstorms almost on a daily basis.  I'm still not expecting it to rain all day, every day -- but according to the latest data, we should get at least some measurable rainfall each 24-hour period all the way through at least Saturday.

Our temps are taking a hit as well.  We've been several degrees above averages for the season during the past week, but now it's going in the other direction.  As April arrives, our normal/average high is around 71ºF/22ºC -- but I am almost certain that after today, we won't be anywhere close to that through at least Easter Sunday, which is one week from today.  Hopefully we won't have to haul out the heaters and winter jackets again, but it's going to be on the raw and chilly side compared to what we've recently enjoyed...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above has the details.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

time for some changes... (pm.28.mar.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 75.5F (24.2C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is partly cloudy at sunset this Saturday evening, after a day of both sunshine and occasional clouds.  The high temp at my location in the upper part of town was slightly warmer than expected, posting a new high for the season and the year.  It seems that has been happening nearly every day this week.  Both high and low temperatures the last several days have been closer to historical averages for about April 10-12 or so.

All of this unseasonably warm weather is going to come to a screeching halt during the next 24 hours, however, as we undergo the first stages of a major shift in the overall pattern.  Right now there is a rather strong upper-level circulation pushing into western Afghanistan, which is going to plow eastward into northern India by Monday night, knocking down this big high pressure ridge which has provided us with such nice, springlike conditions for the past 10-11 days.  The first chance of some shower or thundershower development will enter the picture sometime on Sunday morning, with increasing chances of occasional showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.  There may be a bit of a break on Tuesday into Wednesday -- meaning showers could become more isolated/widely scattered -- but then an even stronger system is being projected for the end of next week.  Basically, we're looking at a good chance of measurable rain each and every 24 hour period all the way through Easter Sunday.

Cooler air will start to arrive tomorrow, and it looks like we'll spend the majority of the week below normal for the March to April transition.  The spring season in McLeod is well-known for its roller-coaster temperature rides, and that's what we'll be embarking upon shortly...

Detailed forecast info can always be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the home page.

heavenly wx to depart... (am.28.mar.15)>

There's a lot of high, thin cirrus clouds out there early this morning, but the sun is still visible as it peeks over the Dhauladhars right at this moment.  I'm recording a balmy overnight low temp of 61.3F (16.3C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.

We find ourselves today right at the end of our recent long stretch of fantastic springtime weather which has lasted about ten days.  An unseasonably robust area of high pressure aloft has been pretty much anchored tightly over the Indian subcontinent, forcing the main storm track to remain well north of us.  But that is going to change shortly.  Already today there will be some cooling occurring in the higher levels of the atmosphere -- the first signs of the destabilization on the way.  Still, there should be a good amount of sun in the midst of periods of cloudiness today, as temperatures remain close to where they've been most of this past week.

A batch of moisture moving in from the southwest, colder air arriving aloft, and some dynamic energy/rotation in the upper atmosphere will all start to converge on us tomorrow (Sun).  That's going to bring in our first chance of some shower and thunderstorm development -- with temperatures dropping a few degrees.  Unfortunately, this more active pattern will remain with us throughout next week, with several waves of showers and thunderstorms likely, as we cool down below normal for the transition from March into April.  There will be some periods of dry weather and probably some sunshine in the midst of this more turbulent pattern, but it won't be as heavenly as what we've had this past week and a half.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details.

Friday, March 27, 2015

peak experience... (pm.27.mar.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 75.0F (23.9C)
Rainfall: none

Just when we thought it couldn't get any better, it got better.  Today has been maybe the closest to perfection of any of our super-nice days of the past week or so -- we had nearly full sunshine, with only a few streaks of high clouds at times and minimal afternoon cumulus development over the mountains.  My thermometer on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center touched 75ºF/23.9ºC which was right on target, and the warmest of the season and the year... just by a hair.  We have scattered high clouds at sunset, otherwise it is mostly clear.

I can look at the admin page on my blog and see that the number of hits/visits has dwindled considerably in the past several days due to this calm and quiet weather -- which makes me concerned that people are going to be unpleasantly surprised by the changes on the way during the coming 48 hours or so.  Over the years I have noticed that people stop paying attention to what's going on after only a few days of nice weather.  Anyway, it looks like we'll be able to squeeze out one more day of this decent sunshine and unseasonably warm weather before it all starts to turn on us.  As long as we don't get too much of an increase in clouds tomorrow (Sat), we should have temps in the same ballpark as the last few days.

The issue is -- our massive ridge of high pressure is going to be replaced by an upper-atmospheric flow embedded with disturbances starting on Sunday.  At the same time, increasing amounts of moisture will be pushing in from the southwest.  This spells a turn to a higher potential of shower and thunderstorm development, along with a significant drop in temperatures.  Sunday is the day that those changes will start to set in, and the data has been consistent in keeping unsettled/unstable conditions across north India all the way through next week and maybe beyond.  It won't rain all day, every day... but the whole scenario is going to be a major downturn compared to what we've recently enjoyed.

I hope you know where to find THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info....

time is running out... (am.27.mar.15)>

Last night's band of thick high clouds has pushed off to the east, leaving us with totally clear skies this morning at sunrise.  I'm recording a low temp of 59.2F (15.1C), and there has been no rainfall overnight.  In fact, there has been only a trace of rain in the past ten days.

We're down to just two more days of this super-fine springtime weather before what looks to be an extended period of unsettled, wetter and cooler weather sets in.  Here in the short-term, our high pressure ridge which has been the main feature for the past week plus will continue to provide us with a good amount of sunshine, along with temperatures running several degrees above normal for the end of March.  Other than the threat of occasional high clouds, and perhaps some afternoon mountain cumulus development, all is well.  Both today and Saturday should feature high temps close to the 75ºF mark, which is where we've been for the last couple of days.

A whole-scale pattern shift will occur by Sunday, however.  A general trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will move in from the west, and then linger in the vicinity of northern India for pretty much all of next week.  Our air mass will destabilize dramatically on Sunday into Monday, increasing the risk of some periods of rain and thunderstorms, as temperatures drop at least 10ºF/5ºC.  There won't be continuous rain and clouds next week, but the way the data is looking right now, it may be hard to have a period of 24-36 hours without at least one round of showers and thunderstorms.  Just be prepared for a dramatically different kind of weather scenario starting on Sunday, and continuing perhaps all the way through Easter Sunday the following week...

Tabs at the top of the page are your link to other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

another two days of this... (pm.26.mar.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
High temp: 74.6F (23.7C)
Rainfall: none

There is a lot of high cloudiness out there at sunset this evening, and there have been more of those high clouds today in general than we've seen the last several days.  Still, the sunshine was present enough to boost temperatures to almost exactly the same level as yesterday -- keeping us at our warmest of the season and the year.

A massive ridge of high pressure is still sitting on top of the subcontinent, but a gradually developing trough of low pressure way out to the west over the Persian Gulf is causing more extensive high clouds to develop and move across roughly the northwest half of India.  The air mass itself remains significantly warmer than normal for the final week of March -- but along with these warm temps we will be seeing occasional waves of mainly high clouds during the next couple of days.

Further ahead, Sunday is still looking like the day when things go downhill on us.  The first in a long series of upper-level storm systems will move in by then... increasing the risk of a few periods of rain and thunderstorms.  Tonight's data seems to make it clear that all of next week will be very unsettled, with that string of disturbances triggering occasional showers and thunderstorms almost on a daily basis.  As that happens, our recent unseasonably warm air mass will be replaced by an unseasonably COOL air mass instead.  I'm afraid all of this is going to be unpopular with the majority of us...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info on tabs above.

temps still climbing... (am.26.mar.15)>

We have some of those very thin cirrus cloud fragments scattered across the area at sunrise this morning, otherwise it's mostly clear.  My low temp here in the upper part of town -- 60.6F (15.9C) -- is the mildest of the season.  There has been no precipitation overnight.

Our weather situation for the past eight days has been nothing short of spectacular, with each day warmer than the previous, and lots of sunshine to go around.  Although there have been a couple of brief periods of sprinkles or very light rain showers, it has amounted to no more than a trace.  As you know, it's been a gigantic ridge of high pressure anchored over the Indian subcontinent that has gifted us with this extended period of fantastic springtime weather -- and it looks like we've still got another few days to enjoy this.  Expect temperatures to remain well above normal with a mix of sun and occasional clouds, and just a barely mentionable risk of an isolated afternoon shower in the vicinity of the mountains.

By Saturday evening the upper-level pattern will begin changing, paving the way for a series of stronger disturbances to move across northern India.  This shift in the pattern will increase our chances for some periods of rain and thunderstorms, while also causing temperatures to drop considerably.  Right now the most likely window for significant rainfall looks like Sunday through Monday night, and again starting on Wednesday.  It would be a good idea to be mentally prepared for a return to cooler, wetter, and very unsettled conditions all through next week...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has the details.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

no worries for a while... (pm.25.mar.15)>

Wednesday's stats: 

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 74.6F (23.7C)
Rainfall: trace

We've had so many beautiful evenings in a row -- they're all starting to blend together now.  There are only a few high clouds streaking the sky, along with some dissipating cumulus over the mountains as the sun sets, otherwise it's mostly clear.  The sunshine was prevalent again today, despite occasional clouds and even a brief period of sprinkles and very light rain showers in the middle of the afternoon.  But even when combined with those brief light rain showers before dawn this morning, there has been nothing measurable in the rain gauge.  The high temp was again a new high for the year...

The weak disturbance which moved across northern India during the past 18 hours or so behaved exactly as expected, stirring up only light showers which were insigificant for the most part.  It's gone now, and will allow the big ridge of high pressure sprawled out just to our south to build back in during the latter part of the week.  Already our temps are well above normal for the end of March, and it still looks like we may yet add on another degree or two between tomorrow (Thu) and Saturday.  We can't totally rule out an isolated afternoon shower, but it's looking quiet for the next three days, with a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds.

This extended period of fantastically pleasant weather will be on its way out by Sunday, however.  There is a major shift in the pattern showing up on computer models which will allow at least a couple of storm systems to develop and move across our area next week.  We may see a significant amount of rain and thunderstorm action on Sunday and Monday, as temperatures drop back below normal before April arrives.

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details on the tab above.

the happiness continues... (am.25.mar.15)>

It's another very mild morning for this time of the year -- my current temp is 63.0F (17.2C), but I recorded an overnight low of 59.2F (15.1C) which occurred during some off and on brief light rain showers between about 4:00 and 5:30am.  Those showers didn't register a measurement in the rain gauge.  There are only a few leftover clouds at sunrise.

The weak upper-level disturbance we've been tracking is now moving across northern India, and was successful in stirring up those very light rain showers just a couple of hours ago.  There may be another round of isolated/random light rain showers at some point today, otherwise we'll see another day of mixed clouds and sunshine... with temperatures continuing to run well above normal for late March.  The dominant weather feature will still be that massive ridge of high pressure parked just to our south as we finish off this week, and it will be providing us with more of our recent sun/occasional cloud combination -- with only a small chance of a random shower or thundershower popping up during the PM hours.

There are going to be some major changes in the scenario, but that probably won't begin to occur until late Saturday night or Sunday.  By then, the first in a series of more significant storm systems will move into the western Himalayan region, increasing the potential for periods of rain and thunderstorms, while getting rid of these unseasonably warm temperatures.  It is still looking like most of next week will be much stormier and significantly cooler than what we've gotten used to during the past week or so.

Check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

truly balmy... (pm.24.mar.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 73.0F (22.8C)
Rainfall: none

We can call it partly cloudy this evening as the sun sets -- with some large patches of mainly high cloudiness visible in all directions.  But even with those high clouds drifting overhead from time to time, there was still plenty of sunshine for us to enjoy today, with very little afternoon cumulus development over the mountains.  I registered yet another high temperature for 2015... and it was the eighth consecutive day of steady warming.

A weak upper-level disturbance is knocking on the door at the moment, and will move across northern India later tonight into Wednesday.  For several days there have been hints of some scattered shower and thundershower development with this system, but as it gets closer, most of the computer models have all but dropped the rain chances.  I think there could still be some isolated to widely scattered light rain showers during the next 24 hours somewhere around the area -- but I'll be very surprised if anything more than that materializes.

By tomorrow (Wed) evening the high pressure ridge over most of the Indian subcontinent will begin to strengthen even more, providing us with generally stable and unseasonably warm weather through the first part of the weekend.  Our temps are already well above normal for late March, and could even rise another degree or two between Thursday and Saturday.  Thereafter, things start to go downhill.  A significant storm system will be taking shape to our west, increasing the risk of some widespread rain and thunderstorm action by late Saturday night or Sunday.  That could be only the beginning, as it's looking more and more like all of next week will feature a return to cooler and unsettled conditions.  Savor this good stuff while it lasts!

There is other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs at the top of the page.

feels like april... (am.24.mar.15)>

There are just a few traces of very thin cirrus clouds across the area early this morning, otherwise we have clear skies, which will soon be full of sunshine.  It's been another uneventful night, with a very mild low temp of 58.5F (14.7C) and no precipitation.  That overnight low is actually more typical for about the 10th of April, by the way.

Yes, we're now enjoying an air mass which is considerably warmer than normal for late March, and it looks like we will STILL be warming up another couple of degrees before the temperature trend starts heading downward again.  A giant bubble of high pressure dominates the weather pattern all across south Asia, keeping things generally calm and stable, with summertime temps showing up on the plains of north India.  There is a weak disturbance which a couple of the computer models are trying to squeeze a few showers/thundershowers out of on Wednesday -- but at this point it seems like any precipitation here in our area will be rather brief and light.  Otherwise we'll see a mix of sun and clouds all the way through Saturday, with only a slight chance of a passing shower, mainly during the afternoons/evenings.

A more organized storm system will begin to threaten us by late Saturday night or early Sunday.  And there are indications it could be the beginning of a trend back toward an extended period of unstable/usettled conditions which could last all the way through next week.  SO -- be prepared for increasing rain/thunder chances, along with temperatures dropping back to normal and below, starting on Sunday.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info can be found on tabs above.

Monday, March 23, 2015

now above normal... (pm.23.mar.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8ºF (13.2ºC)
High temp: 71.2ºF (21.8ºC)
Rainfall: none

There are some high clouds showing up to the west at sunset this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  Recently, each day has been warmer than the one before, and that happened again today.  My high temp in the upper part of town was pushing 22ºC by this afternoon -- registering another new high for 2015.  We did have to deal with a bit of mountain cloudiness during the afternoon hours, but the sunshine was never really challenged all that much.

We're definitely getting right into the middle of the comfort zone in terms of temperatures -- with both early morning lows and afternoon hights quite pleasant, and even now a bit warmer than normal for this time of year.  All of this is due to the massive high pressure ridge which continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Indian subcontinent.  Though we do have to watch a weak upper-level disturbance rippling through here on Wednesday, things should remain generally stable and pleasant into the first half of the weekend.  That Wednesday disturbance could stir up a couple of random/isolated showers or thundershowers somewhere around the area, but I'm fairly sure we won't have to deal with widespread or long-lasting rain.

Changes are starting to show up on the horizon by Sunday, however.  A much stronger upper-level system will start to break down our stable high pressure ridge, leading to an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms.  Things this far in advance are subject to change, of course, but right now next week is looking like a cooler and wetter scenario than the one we've enjoyed this past week or so.  

Check the tabs at the top of the home page for further info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

even more warming... (am.23.mar.15)>

A gorgeous Monday morning is unfolding for us, in complete contrast to what was happening last week at this time, if you remember.  We've got totally clear skies, along with comfortably mild temperatures.  My low temp has been 55.8F (13.2C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

A gigantic ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen across the Indian subcontinent, extending its influence northward into the Himalayas.  This has provided us with a warming trend which has been going on since last Tuesday, and will continue for at least a couple of more days.  We've finally reached normal/average temperatures for this time of year, but another degree or two (C) will put us above normal -- for the first time in about a month.  The sunshine should continue to be plentiful during the morning hours, but it's likely we'll see more afternoon cloud development, especially in the vicinity of the mountains.

A very weak disturbance will move in on Wednesday, which could destabilize our air mass enough to trigger some isolated thundershowers.  Otherwise, the remainder of the week is looking good.  It should remain comfortably warm with a mix of clouds and sunshine right through Saturday.  The next chance of a period of more significant rainfall enters the picture starting on Sunday...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

warmest of the year... (pm.22.mar.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5ºF (12.5ºC)
High temp: 69.8ºF (21.0ºC)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is partly cloudy this evening, here at the end of the warmest day of 2015 so far.  It was about as close to 70ºF as it could get this afternoon, with full sunshine during the morning giving way to some afternoon cloud development mainly over the mountains again.  It has actually been very close to a climatologically normal day for this stage of the month of March.

We've been talking constantly about a building ridge of high pressure across the Indian subcontinent which is finally delivering this seasonably mild air mass to our area -- and it still looks like our temperatures will be on an upward trend during at least the next couple of days.  There are still some concerns about a variety of cloud development in the midst of the sunshine from time to time, however.  But it's probably nit-picking to worry about that, considering how much better this whole scenario is -- compared to what we've recently escaped from.

There are some difuse and disorganized upper-level disturbances projected by the computer models to affect us starting on Wednesday, but at this point anything more than some isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers or thundershowers doesn't look likely at all.  Even with that slightly better chance of some precipitation, our temperatures should remain very close to 70ºF/21ºC right into the weekend... and probably even a bit above that.

Specifics can be found on THE 7-DAY FORECAST tab above.

into the comfort zone... (am.22.mar.15)>

Another sunny morning is shaping up, with absolutely clear skies at dawn.  My low temp here in the upper part of town was 54.5F (12.5C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

Our temperatures have been on an upward trend ever since Tuesday, and it looks like that's going to continue for another few days at least.  High pressure building across the Indian subcontinent is responsible for our warming air mass -- taking us to where we should be for the end of March, and then even above.  It's pretty likely my thermometer here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center will nudge the 70ºF/21ºC mark today for the first time since last October -- and those 70ºF+ temps will probably remain with us all the way through this week.

Full sunshine is not expected, though, as the rapidly warming lower layers of the atmosphere will be in conflict with some lingering pockets of cold air along the mountains.  That will keep us dealing with at least a couple of hours of instability during the afternoons, leading to some cloud development and even a couple of isolated showers in the higher elevations.  There may be a better chance of scattered showers and/or thundershowers (mainly during the afternoon/evening hours) starting on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend, but we're not talking about a major storm system at all.

You'll find other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs at the top of the page.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

pushing toward 70ºF... (pm.21.mar.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1ºF (11.7ºC)
High temp: 68.0ºF (20.0ºC)
Rainfall: trace

The last traces of cumulus clouds over the Dhauladhars are dissipating at this moment, leaving us with mostly clear skies as the sun sets.  Temperatures today were spot-on, but we did have a threatening build-up of clouds over the mountains during the mid-afternoon which actually yielded a brief period of sprinkles of rain at my location in the very upper part of town -- between about 3:00 and 3:20pm.  The sun was shining in the midst of it though, so it's been a nice Saturday overall, and the warmest of 2015 thus far.

A warming air mass pushing in from the south is creating a bit of conflict with some layers of cooler air lingering aloft -- and that is the little fly in the ointment that has me slightly concerned about more of that mid-afternoon weak convective development tomorrow (Sun).  By Monday there should be enough warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere to put a damper on that threat, but we'll just have to watch it day by day.  Otherwise we'll continue to see sunshine with occasional periods of cloudiness over the course of the next three days or so.  There remains little doubt about our temperatures rising above normal for this time of year, as we breach the 70ºF/21ºC mark either tomorrow or Monday.

Even further warming is likely as the new week progresses, but there will be at least a mentionable risk of some mainly afternoon or early evening shower or thundershower development starting on Wednesday, as a couple of weak disturbances ripple across north India.  Still no major storm systems on the horizon, however...

Get details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the home page.

it's officially spring... (am.21.mar.15)>

The spring equinox occurred at 4:15am IST, and that means it is now officially SPRING in the northern hemisphere.  It definitely looks like it here in our corner of the world, with mostly clear skies this morning, along with mild temperatures.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 53.1F (11.7C) and there has obviously been no rainfall since last report.

I keep waiting for signs of something that might spoil our increasingly beautiful and pleasant weather scenario, but so far things are progressing nicely.  A large ridge of high pressure continues to build and expand across the Indian subcontinent, and will be our primary meterological feature during the next four days or so.  This should provide us with a generally stable air mass that will be steadily warming up day by day.  Most likely today will be the warmest day of 2015 up to this point, but it's going to keep getting warmer all the way until Tuesday -- taking us above normal for late March, and actually making it feel like we might have skipped over spring and gone straight into summer.  I don't think we'll have 100% sunshine though, as there will probably be a variety of patchy cloud development here and there, now and then.

Our air mass will start to destabilize by Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will introduce a chance of some scattered shower and thundershower action for the latter part of next week.  Right now it's not looking like a major storm system at all, just the potential for typical springtime convective development, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.  Even so, temperatures should remain pleasantly warm.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has the details.

Friday, March 20, 2015

temperatures going higher... pm.20.mar.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 66.3F (19.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's a partly cloudy evening -- mainly patches of mid- and high clouds.  We managed to come up with about the same amount of sunshine today as we've had the last two or three days, and despite the weak disturbance moving through the area, there have been no rain showers here in McLeod proper.  My high temperature in the upper part of town was a bit warmer than expected, and very close to the highest of the year thus far.

The computer model data has done a good job gauging the advance of a milder air mass nosing in from the south -- and if anything, our actual temps have been even a bit warmer than what those models have suggested.  I don't think there are any complaints about that, since we've been consistently cooler than normal around here for more than three weeks.  There will be an even stronger surge of warmer air on the way over the weekend into early next week, and that's going to fast-forward us to above normal temps in a matter of just two or three days.  Spring officially begins at 4:15am tomorrow (Sat), so I guess it makes sense.

I'm stunned at how warm this air mass is looking by Tuesday, and even through the rest of next week.  BUT -- there will be an increasing chance of showers or thundershowers popping up in our vicinity starting on Wednesday.  At least at this point, there are no more major storm systems on the horizon...

Other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on tabs above.

winter giving up... (am.20.mar.15)>

Patches of high cirrus clouds are evident at dawn this Friday morning, but it looks like we'll be seeing at least dim sunshine as it peeks above the Dhauladhars very shortly.  It's mild -- I'm recording an overnight low of 51.3F (10.7C) -- and there has been no rainfall since last report.

All week we've been watching a feeble upper-level disturbance which has been scheduled to move across northern India today, and as it arrives, it is indeed looking very weak.  There has been a notable increase in mid- and high cloudiness to our west and south, but if there has been any shower development at all up to this point, it has been very isolated and light.  Let's keep one eye out for a random shower today into this evening, otherwise I think the rain chances are not much to worry about.

By tomorrow (Sat), a high pressure ridge will begin to build northward, eventually encompassing the entire Indian subcontinent by Monday.  A generally stable air mass is expected, as temperatures warm up quite dramatically.  It's now looking like we could be pushing well into the 70s(F)/low 20s(C) early next week, which will be the first stretch of real springtime weather that we've been able to enjoy this season.  In fact, after languishing well below normal for the entire month of March, we should actually be warmer than normal for a few days.  Imagine that.

There is some kind of a weather system projected by the models toward the middle of next week.  At the moment, it seems that Wednesday might be our best day to pick up a bit of shower/thunder action.  Check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

some cloud issues... (pm.19.mar.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 48.8F (9.3C)
High temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
Rainfall: none

This afternoon's mountain cumulus clouds have dissipated, but there is quite a lot of thin, high cloudiness across the area just as the sun sets this evening.  We had another day featuring nearly unlimited sunshine during the morning, with a significant degree of afternoon clouds over the mountains for a couple of hours.  Still, we managed to warm up another couple of degrees -- registering the highest temps since the last week of February.

The overall weather situation is a very positive one, though we do have a weak disturbance set to move across north India tomorrow (Fri) -- riding the line along a push of much milder air which is still in the forecast for the weekend into early next week.  This disturbance is already causing some significant high cloud development, and may even stir up a few scattered light rain showers on Friday into Friday evening.  Computer models have recently backed off of anything more than barely measurable precipitation, but we'll need to watch it nonetheless.

After that disturbance departs on Friday night, a very strong ridge of high pressure will build into our area, delivering the warmest temperatures of the season and the year thus far.  All week I have been trying to hold back and be conservative with the forecast, but I am getting more and more confident that we are going to have a genuine and authentic taste of Himalayan springtime -- just in time for the official start of spring.

All the details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

positive trends... (am.19.mar.15)>

Our Thursday morning is dawning with clear skies, which means we've got more sunshine to look forward to very shortly.  It's been a peaceful and uneventful night -- with no precipitation and a low temperature of 48.8F (9.3C) here in the upper part of town.

A ridge of high pressure to our south will continue trying to build northward today, allowing a general warming of the air mass throughout all layers of the atmosphere.  That should diminish the instability that led to some ominous cloud development over the mountains and even some isolated thundershowers up there yesterday afternoon into the early evening.  We do have another very weak disturbance on schedule to move across northern India on Friday, however, which could bring us a period of cloudiness and even a chance of a few scattered light rain showers somewhere around the area.

The big news continues to be the aggressive push of that high pressure ridge from the south over the weekend into early next week.  Temperatures should jump right into the springtime comfort zone -- and it's looking more and more likely that we'll crack the 70F/21C mark as long as we can keep the sunshine dominant.  There is another risk of some showers on Tuesday, but that episode should be short-lived.  We may actually have finally broken into the kind of pattern we've been waiting for...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info on tabs above.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

struggling upward... (pm.18.mar.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
Rainfall: none

There is a lone thundershower visible well off to our southeast just before sunset this evening, otherwise our sky is mostly clear.  This morning's gorgeous sunshine had to share space with a lot of cumulus cloud development over the mountains by the afternoon -- as we were expecting -- but fortunately, the isolated showers that developed remained up-mountain from us.  We did end up with a rise in temperatures of a couple of degrees over yesterday, but it did feel breezy and chilly for awhile during the afternoon at the peak of that cloud development.

The general weather pattern is a rather variable and nondescript one during the coming 48 hours or so, as we see a weak push of high pressure try to come in from the south, while a very weak wiggle of energy in the upper atmosphere passes across northern India. That means that our temps will continue to moderate, but also there will likely be some periods of cloudiness -- especially by late tomorrow (Thu) through the day on Friday.  I'm still including a risk of a few scattered light rain showers on Friday, though most of the computer model data has been trending away from anything very significant.

The better news highlights the Saturday through Monday period, showing a very robust warm-up that will boost our temps to the highest levels of 2015, more than likely.  As I've been mentioning the last couple of days, we could be getting very close to 70F/21C even at my location in the upper part of McLeod Ganj by Sunday and Monday... and it's about time.

Don't forget to check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for specifics.

plenty of morning sun... (am.18.mar.15)>

A totally clear sky at dawn this morning means that we're going to be enjoying brilliant sunshine in a matter of minutes.  It's been a clear and quiet night, with a low temp of 46.6F (8.1C) here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.  There has been no rainfall since last report.

Our weather pattern is generally a quiet one, and will remain so all the way through the weekend and into early next week.  But there are a couple of minor concerns.  One is the presence of some lingering colder air aloft today, which could contribute to a lot of cloud development over the mountains by the afternoon -- and even a couple of random showers up there.  The second concern is a weak (and looking even weaker) upper-level disturbance which will drift across northern India on Friday, increasing our cloud cover and perhaps stirring up some scattered light rain showers.  But both of those concerns are bordering on insignificant in comparison to the major storm systems we've dealt with so often the last several weeks.

Otherwise, the main thing to look forward to is a warming trend which has been consistently projected by all the computer models -- especially over the weekend.  The most robust high pressure ridge of the spring season will be building across the Indian subcontinent, allowing seasonably pleasant temps to surge northward into our neighborhood.  I'm trying to be conservative with the numbers for now -- but it sure seems like we could be nudging 70F/21C by Sunday or Monday.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

changing direction... (pm.17.mar.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 43.5F (6.4C)
High temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
Precipitation: trace

Right at sunset, there's still a considerable amount of cloudiness clinging to the mountains, but it is mostly clear to the south and west.  We've had a fantastic turn-around today, with a good amount of sunshine and temperatures about 10F/5C warmer than yesterday.  There was just a trace of rainfall around midnight, but nothing else since then here in our immediate area.

We've had a marginally unstable air mass across the area today, but the only re-development of any shower activity was confined to the higher elevations to our north and east.  That has certainly been nice to see, since more than 10 inches (25cm) of rain during March up to this point is way over double the average amount for the entire month.  Add to that a February rainfall total which was also more than double the norm, and I think it's safe to say that we're all very rain-weary.

Our weather pattern during the next week or so isn't entirely uneventful, but it does look like we're going to switch into a mode that is less conducive to the development of major storm systems affecting north India.  There is a bothersome little disturbance expected to swing across the area on Friday -- and that could stir up some scattered shower or thundershower action -- otherwise we may have a period of quieter weather than we've been used to during the last several weeks.  Computer models are projecting a very significant warm-up this weekend, which still seems like it will take us up close to normal for the season, which will be our warmest of the year so far.  It's starting to look like 70F (21C) is not out of the question by Sunday or Monday!  Let's see if that truly pans out or not.

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page.

fresh hope... (am.17.mar.15)>

My internet connection was dead as a doornail this morning... so this will be an abbreviated post.

It's a much brighter picture out there, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures attempting to rebound a bit.  I'm recording an overnight low of 43.5F (6.4C), but it's already above 47F (8.3C) as of 8:00am.  Last night's rain showers fizzled out fairly quickly, and my rain gauge shows just 0.02" (less than 1mm) since about 9:00pm.  But that gives us a grand total of 3.32" (8.4cm) of rain since our first showers got cranked up late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Some lingering instability in the area could lead to a few random showers re-developing yet today, but the overall trend is looking much better.  We'll be seeing a general warming trend throughout the rest of the week, with the only real bump in the road coming in the form of a fast-moving upper-level disturbance which could bring us a shot of rain showers on Friday.

What looks to be a very strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend, providing us with plenty of sun, along with the warmest temperatures of our spring season so far.  Let's hope that outlook holds!  THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above has the details...

Monday, March 16, 2015

somebody make it stop... (pm.16.mar.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 41.2F (5.1C)
High temp: 49.6F (9.8C)
Precipitation since 7:00am: 1.59" (4.0cm)
Storm total precipitation: 3.30" (8.4cm)
*stats updated at 8:45pm

A vigorous rain shower is in progress as I start typing this evening, and there have been more than enough of those throughout the day.  It has been what could easily be called a miserable Monday, with thick cloudiness, unseasonably cold temperatures, and frequent periods of rain, gusty winds and even a bit of thunder with some tiny hail at times.  You can see from the rain stats above that we've already far exceeded the amounts that were generally expected from this weather system -- and those numbers will continue to rise.

There remains a weak upper-level circulation right along the southwestern border of Jammu & Kashmir at sunset this evening, with an expansive pool of very chilly air in association with it.  Obviously we've also got plenty of moisture wrapped into this system, and it's probably not going to be exhausted until very late tonight or Tuesday morning.  That means we can expect occasional showers to continue.  A gradual stabilization of the atmosphere should occur tomorrow (Tues), however, which will probably allow at least some measure of clearing to enter the picture as the day wears on.  But still -- there could be a few random/scattered rain showers in the area.

The overall weather pattern is looking significantly better for the rest of the week, as some semblance of a high pressure ridge tries to build northward.  This will bring us a warming trend which should last into the weekend, along with a mixture of sunshine and clouds.  One thing we have to watch is a fast-moving upper-level disturbance which will move across northern India on Friday.  It could bring us a period of thicker cloud cover, along with a risk of at least scattered shower and thundershower action for a few hours.

For further insights, check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and LATE WINTER TO SPRING tabs at the top of the page.

monday moisture... (am.16.mar.15)>

It's cloudy with light rain and fog early on this Monday morning, and there has been a lot of rain and thunder overnight.  I was stunned to see 1.71" (4.3cm) in the rain gauge since about 9:00pm, giving us 2.23" (5.7cm) for a grand total so far with this latest storm system.  There have also been some brief periods of small hail, with occasionally gusty winds as well.  I'm recording a low temp of 41.5F (5.3C).

The centerpoint of circulation of this system is located just to the west of Amritsar as of about 6:00am.  Its dynamic capacity is weakening rapidly as it shifts slowly east-northeastward, but there is still a very large batch of moisture entrained into the circulation, which will continue to be gradually wrung out as it encounters the mountains during the next 12-18 hours or so.  That means we can expect more waves of showers and thundershowers throughout the day and probably well into the night.  It's possible that we could come up with some periods of partial clearing in the midst of it all, though.  But for the most part, it looks like a fairly gloomy Monday.

Tomorrow we will be transitioning out of this mess, and into something more pleasant for the remainder of the week.  A few random showers are still a good bet on Tuesday, but we should have increasing amounts of sunshine as well.  Then our temperatures will be heading upward on Wednesday and Thursday, before a weak disturbance brings in a chance of a period of showers/thunder on Friday afternoon and night.  From this vantage point, the weekend is looking fine and seasonably mild.

Get details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Sunday, March 15, 2015

more nastiness to come... (pm.15.mar.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 45.0F (7.2C)
High temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Rainfall: 0.52" (1.3cm)

This evening at sunset our sky is partly cloudy, at the end of a day in which we've seen everything from driving rain to gusty winds to pleasant periods of sun.  Nearly all of the rain occurred during the morning into the early afternoon hours, with sunshine peeking through the clouds quite frequently after about 2:45pm.  Temperatures have been unseasonably cool all day -- but it felt a bit better with that mid- to late afternoon sun.

The center of an area of upper-level low pressure is located pretty much right over the middle of Pakistan at the moment, and has been responsible for our turbulent weather since the very early morning hours.  Although we've had a nice break since the mid-afternoon, things are going to go nasty on us again overnight, with more periods of rain and thunder becoming likely.  A few more waves of rain showers and possible thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through Monday and Monday night, with some lingering showers quite possible well into Tuesday, too.  We've probably not yet seen the real muscle of this storm system yet -- so don't be fooled by the temporary clearing these last few hours.

By Tuesday evening, our air mass will be stabilizing again, and that will set us up for what looks to be a fairly nice stretch of weather for the remainder of the week.  It probably won't be 100% uneventful, but with a warming trend kicking in and a good amount of sunshine, it could finally start to feel like it should feel this time of year.  We've been cooler and wetter than normal this entire month of March thus far, so that would be a welcome change...

Explore the blog tabs above and you'll find THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other useful info.

the rain arrives... (am.15.mar.15)>

It's totally cloudy at sunrise on this Sunday morning, and we have light rain in progress.  We had a couple of rounds of showers overnight, accompanied by quite a lot of thunder and lightning, and even a bit of brief hail here at my location in the upper part of town.  I think I heard the hail around 3:30am or so.  The rain gauge shows only 0.21" (5mm) so far -- but this is just the beginning.  I've recorded an overnight low of 46.0F (7.8C).

This latest storm system that we've been waiting for is now spinning over central Pakistan, just west of the central Rajasthan border.  It's finally looking like a more organized system, as it draws lots of moisture northward ahead of the main circulation center, and colder air starts to sink southward.  If you've been following along on the blog, you know what a slow mover this thing has been, and that means now that it is finally with us, it's going to be slow to depart.  We should be seeing waves of rain showers and a few thunderstorms all the way into Tuesday -- with the best potential for some heavier rainfall amounts still looking most likely between tonight and very late Monday night.  I'll be surprised if we don't end up with 1.5-2.0" (4-5cm) before it's all over.

Already we're in the process of saying goodbye to the milder temps we've enjoyed the last several days, and it's going to be much cooler than normal for mid-March until we can get this system to move off to our east.  That will happen gradually on Tuesday, with a much better pattern shaping up for the later half of the week.  In fact, I am loving the temperature profiles being hinted at by the models by Friday and Saturday.  March is always a major month of transition... and this is indeed what will be happening.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above has details.

Saturday, March 14, 2015

waiting for it... (pm.14.mar.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 49.1F (9.5C)
High temp: 60.8F (16.0C)
Precipitation: none

Mid-level cloudiness is on the increase this evening, adding to the broken layer of high clouds which has been with us all day.  There have been some decent periods of sunshine today as well, allowing my high temp in the upper part of town to edge upwards of 60F (16C) for the fourth day in a row.  We've yet to receive any rainfall, as far as I've seen.

A very large but disorganized storm system remains sprawled to our south and west, with its center of circulation just now moving into central Pakistan.  The majority of the rain and thunderstorm activity associated with this system remains well to our southwest, but will be shifting north and eastward gradually -- increasing our chances of getting wet during the coming 12 to 18 hours.  The risk of showers and thundershowers will be rising overnight into mid-day Sunday, but the real meat of this system looks like it will be affecting us between Sunday night and Monday night.  At least a couple of periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely then, with some thunderstorms and gusty winds thrown in as well.  And of course we'll have to deal with falling temperatures...

Some lingering showers and/or thundershowers are probable on Tuesday, but by Tuesday evening we should start to come under the influence of a fresh ridge of high pressure which will usher in our next phase of quiet weather.  A warming trend looks likely for the latter half of the week, with only slight rain chances all the way through next weekend.  Maybe by then we'll actually climb up to a normal range of temperatures for mid-March.

Check THE 7-DAY FORECAST (tab above) for details.

slow-moving system... (am.14.mar.15)>

The recent theme of partly cloudy skies continues early this morning -- with some patches of mainly high clouds interspersed with patches of blue.  There was no precipitation overnight, and I'm recording a low temp of 49.1F (9.5C) here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.

The storm system winding up to our southwest is one heck of a slow mover.  Its center of circulation is inching eastward across southern Pakistan with a large area of cloudiness and embedded showers and thundershowers extending from central Pakistan across northern Rajasthan, into eastern Uttar Pradesh.  This whole system is going to begin shifting toward the northeast -- slowly -- during the coming 12-24 hours, and that will eventually bring us increasing chances of rain and thunder.  Not to mention a tilt in favor of thicker cloud cover.  Some scattered rain showers could develop in our general area at any time today, but it's still looking like the very best chance of some periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms will hold off until the Sunday through late Monday night time frame.  There will probably be some lingering showers or possibly a thundershower hanging on into Tuesday as well.

Temperatures the last several days have been much easier to take -- but unfortunately, we'll have to endure another period of chilly weather for a couple of days, as soon as the thicker cloudiness and more persistent rain showers set in.

By Tuesday evening we should be embarking on the next streak of drier, calmer and milder weather.  At least according to the latest extended range weather charts, the overall pattern is looking nice for the latter half of next week and beyond...

Click on tabs at the top of the home page for further information.