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Monday, March 2, 2015

dreary gloomy soggy... (am.02.mar.15)>

It's cloudy and raining at sunrise this morning.  Surprise, surprise.  We've seen this coming for many days, so hopefully we're all at least mentally prepared.  I'm recording a low temp of 40.5F (4.7C), and there has been 1.21" (3.1cm) of rain since last night at 9:00pm.  That brings our total since early yesterday afternoon up to exactly 2.00" (5.1cm).  The wind has been quite gusty at times since last evening, but I don't think there has been any thunder.

The culprit for this very wet weather is an upper-level low pressure circulation which is now centered right along the Pakistan/Rajasthan border, approaching the southwestern corner of Punjab.  It is moving very slowly as it continues to pull a lot of moisture northward in the counter-clockwise circulation.  In addition, the air mass is cooling throughout all layers, keeping plenty of precipitation development occurring across Himachal Pradesh and other parts of north India.  It seems that we've got a lot more on the way, with a diminishing trend not that likely until maybe this evening.  Even then, periods of rain showers, thunder, occasionally gusty winds and even the risk of some small hail and/or sleet will remain in the forecast all the way through tomorrow (Tuesday).  It looks like we'll see more dry hours tomorrow than today, for sure, despite that lingering risk of showers.

The data has been trending toward a better scenario for the latter part of the week.  The pattern is still fairly unstable, but right now the best chance of another period of wet weather will come on Thursday night into Friday, and maybe again by late Sunday.  I have a feeling there will need to be adjustments to that timing, so stay tuned.  Temperatures will be moderating from Wednesday onwards, but it should remain on the cool side of normal for early March...

THE 7-DAY FORECAST is available on the tab above.