the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Sunday, March 1, 2015

a truly nasty spell... (pm.01.mar.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8F (6.0C)
High temp: 53.7F (12.1C)
Precipitation: 0.79" (2.0cm)
*stats updated @ 9:31pm

It's a raw and windy (and nasty) evening, with light to moderate rain falling at the moment.  The first round of significant rainfall developed an hour or two early that I was expecting, honestly -- between 1:00 and 2:00pm.  Since that time we've had a few periods of moderate rain showers, along with some gusty winds at times.  There were a couple of brief and faint glimmers of dim sun this morning, otherwise it's been a very cloudy day, with temperatures on a downward slide.

When March rolls around, there is a general expectation that a sudden and miraculous turn to warm and dry and generally pleasant weather is going to occur.  In my experience, that expectation doesn't normally get met, as it is still not uncommon to get very intense late winter storm systems swinging through the western Himalayas -- especially during the first half of the month.  And that's what we've got on our hands right now.

The center of circulation of this storm system is in southern Pakistan this evening, very close to the Rajasthan border.  It is going to lift northeastward during the coming 24-36 hours, providing us with some periods of moderate to heavy rain, very gusty winds at times, and the potential for some thunderstorms which could produce small hail and other forms of semi-frozen precipitation.  We've already gotten off to a strong start, but I won't be too surprised if we see an additional 7cm+ (2.8") of rain and melted hail/sleet by very early Tuesday morning.  The cold air moving in with this system is impressive -- so I really can't say with certainty that there won't be some snow occurring at unusually low elevations either.

On Tuesday we'll start to see some gradual improvement, with any precipitation becoming more scattered and eventually fizzling out.  Beyond that, I am happy to say that this evening models are looking much more positive with regard to the overall pattern... though temperatures should remain far too chilly for the first week of March.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page is where to look for specifics.