the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

june/wxgeek depart... (am.30.jun.15)>

It's cloudy at sunrise this morning, though I'm not seeing any fog at the moment -- at least not from this vantage point.  The current temp is near 65ºF/18ºC, but I'm recording an overnight low of 61.0F (16.1C).  I've got an additional 0.04" (1mm) of rain in my gauge this morning, but I'm not sure whether to attribute that to last evening or sometime during the overnight hours.  At any rate, our 24 hour rainfall total is 0.45" (1.1cm).  Here on the last day of June, my total for the month stands at 8.83" (22.4cm) -- and that's just slightly above normal/average.

Once monsoon conditions start to settle in, there's really not that much new to discuss.  There are the usual ebbs and flows, surges and retreats of deeper tropical moisture up against the mountain slopes that tend to come in cycles lasting four to five days or so.  And though there are days here and there without measurable rainfall, there are usually periods of rain and thunder at some point almost every 24-hour period.  And of course, we also get to enjoy some vigorous monsoon conditions from time to time, when it might rain continously for a couple of days.

The rest of this week should feature at least one or two periods of rain each 24-hour period, with a predominance of clouds, along with occasional episodes of fog.  We may have some kind of break in the action over the weekend, but then the next, stronger surge of monsoon ingredients is being hinted at by the computer models for next week.  It's hard to escape for long, once we get into July and August.

I'm heading out of town and country shortly... this first half of 2015 has vanished very quickly!!  Although I won't be able to post regularly, I'll try to keep some kind of rainfall tally updated MONSOON 2015: RAINFALL TALLY (tab above)>, thanks to reports from a local wxgeek deputy.  Also, there are thousands of posts archived on the right column of this page if you want to read about daily weather conditions during years past -- and of course average rainfall/temperature information on tabs at the top of the page.  I'm planning to be back in about a month...

Monday, June 29, 2015

fog makes its debut... (pm.29.jun.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.6F (17.6C) -- at 12:30pm during rain
High temp: 74.5F (23.6C)
Rainfall: 0.41" (1.0cm)

It's finally looking the way monsoon season is supposed to look -- we have mostly cloudy skies and some patches of thick fog drifting through the area this evening, along with some light sprinkles of rain at the moment.  Today's sunshine was very limited and confined to just a few fleeting glimpses early this morning and again during the mid-afternoon.  Otherwise the clouds were in control, along with these periods of genuine monsoon fog.  Up til now, the main rainfall had occurred right around the noon hour -- it didn't last too long, and amounts weren't all that heavy.

Average relative humidity readings in the moderate range (50-65%) the last several days have jumped upward today, as expected.  Although humidity has averaged just 65-70%, we've had periods when it has surged higher than that -- the presence of fog is an indication that it's been getting into the 90-100% range.  This is what we've been waiting for, as all factors come together to provide us with a glimpse of what we can expect a lot more of during the coming ten to twelve weeks.

As I said this morning, the tropical moisture now surging into Himalayan north India will probably establish itself for the long haul, as a sprawling ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere provides a lazy and sluggish flow up there.  This kind of pattern will allow the rich moisture to keep sloshing back and forth, up against the mountains, providing us with a prevalence of clouds and occasional fog.  It will also keep us in line for periods of rain and thunder pretty much on a daily basis.  We can hope for some occasional sun here and there, but with the humidity, any sun will contribute to some major mugginess.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is rather repetitious, but can be found on the tab above.

moisture is returning... (am.29.jun.15)>

It's looking quite murky out there this morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and some haze.  The current humidity reading is 66%, and the temperature is near the overnight low of 68.0F (20.0C).  There has been no precipitation to report.

Our air mass is "juicing up" again, as tropical moisture begins to ooze back in from the south and southeast.  The upper-level pattern is starting to look more like it should as we get into the monsoon season, with relatively warm air aloft, and a very light and lazy flow.  We've had very little rain since Thursday morning, but it still looks like this new week will be a different story.  Already last night thundershowers developed as close to us as southeast Himachal Pradesh and western Uttarakhand, and scattered shower/thunder development could occur any time of the day or night across most of Himalayan north India each 24-hour period all the way into the weekend.  There's no indication of a feature that would clear our this latest surge of tropical moisture once it gets entrenched, so there will probably be more cloudiness than we've seen the last few days, as well as a better chance of some episodes of fog.

There won't be very dramatic movement of the thermometer this week, with temperatures generally hovering between 64º-80ºF (18º-27ºC) -- and that's another part of the character of monsoon season that is actually quite easy to deal with.

Get a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above.

Sunday, June 28, 2015

summer or monsoon?... (pm.28.jun.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
High temp: 83.4F (28.6C)
Rainfall: none

Our Sunday is coming to an end with partly cloudy and hazy skies, after the expected mix of sunshine and clouds virtually all day long.  Also as expected, today turned out to be the warmest of the past ten days or so, with high temps running a bit above normal/average for the final days of June.  We had zero rainfall, with humidity still stuck in the 50-60% range for the most part.

We've had only sparse amounts of rain since Thursday morning, but this recent dry streak is probably going to be coming to end fairly soon.  We have a ridge of summertime high pressure parked over northwest India which may strengthen even a bit further in the next 24 hours, but also there should be a significant push of tropical moisture approaching from the southeast as we head through tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday.  Computer models are pretty much unanimous in showing a dramatic increase in the chance of shower and thundershower development starting tomorrow -- with at least a period or two of rain likely each 24-hour period all the way through this new week.  It may finally start to look and feel more like monsoon.

As humidity goes up, clouds and some patchy fog will be more likely as well, leading to a downward trend in temperatures.  But still we're talking about temps in a rather comfortable range, and quite normal as the monsoon season gets going.

Check details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

very little drama... (am.28.jun.15)>

We're waking up to another clear, quiet and comfortable morning.  Humidity stands at 58%, the current temp is near the overnight low of 66.0F (18.9C), and there's been no rainfall to report.

A rather stable air mass has been in place across the western HImalayan region for the past couple of days, with a west-northwesterly flow aloft, and steady warming occurring in the mid- and upper-levels.  Though there is a moderate amount of latent moisture in the air, there's been virtually no lifting mechanism to propel the mid-day cloud development into anything more than the most isolated/random showers along the mountains.  We'll probably see the same thing today... with this morning sunshine giving way to occasional clouds well before noon... but the chance of rain, though not totally zero, will remain rather small.  Temperatures today should be the warmest we've seen in about the last ten days.

The next thing to watch is the return of much thicker and richer tropical moisture which will be advancing from the south-southeast by late tonight and Monday.  All of the models are showing some degree of an increase in rain/thunder chances starting tomorrow, with at least one or two periods of showers and thunderstorms possible each and every day through Thursday or Friday.  There is also a decent chance that we'll see some episodes of fog for the first time this monsoon season, as temperature cool at the surface, but remain relatively warmer up above.

Check tabs above for more detailed weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

a stable stretch... (pm.27.jun.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 79.8F (26.6C)
Rainfall: none

It's hazy with a few dissipating clouds over the Dhauladhars this evening, otherwise we could call it mostly clear.  If there is no rain before midnight, and it doesn't look like there will be, today will end up being only the fifth totally dry day this June.  It was also the warmest day since Friday the 19th.  We did see the expected cloud development in the vicinity of the mountains which began by mid-morning, but there has also been plenty of sunshine.  Humidity has hovered very near 55% all day -- which is in the moderate range -- but not nearly as high as it could be this time of year.

A huge, strong ridge of high pressure extends from Saudi Arabia into Pakistan, creating severe heatwave conditions over much of that region.  This high pressure ridge is trying to poke its way into northwest India, and has been marginally successful -- at least significantly warming up the air mass in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere.  This has contributed to our general stability of the last couple of days, and should give us another day with only slight chances of shower/thunder development.  There will be a fresh surge of tropical moisture creeping in from the southeast by Sunday night and Monday, however, which will cause our humidity to rise, and also give us an increasingly better chance of periods of showers and thundershowers during much of next week.  Tomorrow could be even a degree or two warmer than today... before things start to cool off again in response to that influx of moisture.

Just for the record -- with only three days remaining in the month of June, I've recorded 8.38" (21.3cm) of rain.  That's already slightly above normal for the month.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specifics.

quite calm for now... (am.27.jun.15)>

It's a sunny and pleasantly warm Saturday morning, with the humidity reading right around 60%.  The overnight low at dawn was 62.4F (16.9C), but already it's warming rapidly.  I've recorded no rainfall since last report.

The air mass is doing some shifting around again, as much warmer air invades in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere the next couple of days.  The models are showing absolutely no shower/thunder development either today or tomorrow -- but I think we still have to be on guard for the potential of a thundershower during the mid-day or afternoon hours, in the midst of sunshine/cloud fluctuations.  Temperatures both today and Sunday should be warmer than we've seen in a bit more than a week.

Tropical moisture which was pushed southeast of us on Thursday will start to sneak northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains by late Sunday, and that's going to set us up for an increasing chance of some periods of rain and thunder as early as Sunday night -- and then continuing off and on for most of next week.  Our humidity has yet to reach the levels we would expect during monsoon season -- but we may get there as July arrives.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) has the forecast details.

Friday, June 26, 2015

pleasant for the season... (pm.26.jun.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 76.1F (24.5C)
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)

Other than a few clouds lingering along the mountains, it's mostly clear as the sun goes down this Friday evening.  Our full sunshine early this morning was followed by a rapid build-up of clouds by late morning, and then a short period of thundershowers between about 1:00 and 1:40pm or so.  The rainfall at my location in the upper part of town was very minor, but there could have been some heavier amounts in isolated areas.  The high temperature today was a little cooler than normal for the season, with humidity hovering in the 50-55% range.

Although this is now officially the monsoon season, it's pretty much 'monsoon in name only' -- as our daily average humidity remains way too low for true monsoon conditions to be sustained.  The deeper tropical moisture which briefly surged into our area on Wednesday into Thursday has since retreated, obviously, leaving us with generally pleasant conditions for the end of June.  And things are still looking remarkably good as we head into the weekend.  A major push of warmer air throughout all layers of the atmosphere will move in from the west, and that warmer air aloft should provide us with stable conditions except for perhaps a few hours of instability over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  That means that in addition to the sun/cloud mix, we have to remember the potential for a flare-up of thundershowers somewhere along the Dhauladhars during the PM hours, both Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures will continue their climb.

A tongue of tropical moisture will creep in from the southeast starting Sunday night into Monday, and that should give us an increasing chance of more significant rain and thunder action as next week unfolds.  We're still waiting for our first authentic episode of saturated conditons and fog, which is the real indication that the monsoon is settling in.

Take a look at forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

another warming trend... (am.26.jun.15)>

Our sky is absolutely and totally clear as the sun comes up this morning.  My temperature at this moment is the overnight low -- 61.2 (16.2C) -- and there has been no measurable precipitation since last report.  The current humidity reading is 64%.

The complex storm system which moved across northwest India the last few days and prompted the monsoon onset declaration by the India Met Department has now fizzled out -- with a cluster of thunderstorms moving into central Nepal this morning all that's really left of it.  Although the deepest tropical moisture has been pushed temporarily to our south and southeast, there's still a lot of latent moisture in our air mass, so after a good dose of sunshine this morning we'll likely see considerable cloud development over the mountains.  An isolated shower or thundershower during the PM hours is not out of the question, as our atmosphere becomes unstable for a few hours.

A push of much warmer air in the mid- and upper-levels is on the way for the weekend, and according to all the models, should stabilize things very nicely, while warming us up several degrees.  However, we again have to keep in mind the mainly afternoon mountain instability factor -- with periods of cloudiness and the mentionable risk of a PM thundershower somewhere around the area.

By Sunday night into Monday, the deeper and richer tropical moisture lurking not far to our southeast will advance again, leading to an increasing chance of occasional rain and thunder, and most likely some more pervasive cloudiness and patchy fog as well.

Take a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

our new reality... (pm.25.jun.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.13" (3mm)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.03" (2.6cm)

The sun is shining down in the valley, but we are socked in with very low-hanging clouds here along the mountain slopes in McLeod Ganj this evening.  I used the term 'variable cloudiness' this morning for today's forecast on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK -- it's a term I dislike, but I'm not sure how else we could have described our sky conditions today.  It has indeed fluctuated sharply between thick clouds and almost full sunshine at times, keeping us guessing from hour to hour.  Today's measurable rainfall was confined to the morning before 8:30am, with only some light sprinkles this evening -- at least up til now.

A new reality is upon us, as we make our way through the first 24 hour period since the India Met Department declared the official monsoon arrival for the entire north Indian Himalayan region.  It's been a less-than-impressive start, honestly, as the conditions we've been dealing with are very borderline.  But I have learned over the years that the movement of that monsoon onset line toward the north and northwest between mid June and early July is a bit on the arbitrary side.  Whatever -- the IMD has declared that the monsoon is here, so that's that.

But we've actually got a turn to more stable conditions on the way as the weekend approaches.  There is still a decent chance of some isolated thundershower development overnight and perhaps on Friday -- but then it seems that the risk of thundershowers will be very small on both Saturday and Sunday, as warmer air invades in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  There are going to be cloud issues to deal with, probably, but any isolated shower action should be very short-lived, and confined to the PM hours.

Tropical moisture isn't going to be lurking very far to our south and southeast -- and it looks like it will be moving back in our direction by Sunday night into Monday.  That will again increase our risk of periods of rain and thunder, as humidity levels rise higher.

a monsoon declaration... (am.25.jun.15)>

It's officially MONSOON 2015 -- last night the India Met Department declared the onset of the monsoon all up and down the Himalayas of north India, which of course includes Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand.  All of Nepal is also included.  Normally the IMD runs a few days behind what is actually going on, waiting until monsoon conditions are firmly set, but this year they seem to be running ahead of the game.

Here's the link to the IMD summary/bulletin  As of early this morning, they hadn't updated the main map, but you'll see Chief Features and Forecast at the top of the right-hand column.  Click on that for the bulletin itself, then scroll down and you'll eventually find the updated map.

This morning at sunrise we have cloudy skies with some light rain, and the temperature is very close to the overnight low of 57.6F (14.2C).  The humidity reading here at my location in the upper part of town is 73%.  We had a good round of thunderstorms with moderate to occasionally heavy rain which started up sometime after 1:00am, with light to occasionally moderate rain continuing after 4:00am or so.  I've measured 0.90" (2.3cm) as of 6:30am.

We're still in the midst of a complex weather system which is affecting virtually all of the northwest one-third of India.  An upper-level dynamic circulation center from central Asia continues to spin to our northwest, as a tropical low pressure circulation slowly pushes from Gujarat into extreme southern Rajasthan.  These two features are funneling an impressive amount of tropical moisture northward into Himachal and Uttarakhand this morning.  However, as we've been discussing, we find ourselves on the western edge of the main precipitation area... with the heaviest rainfall expected to end up being to our east, with a bull's eye of heavy rainfall over eastern Uttarakhand between now and early tomorrow (Fri) morning.  Today will be a bit precarious for us, as clearing tries to push its way in from the west while juicy tropical air continues to attempt a northward push.  That means we'll continue to deal with the potential for more shower/thunder development, while also perhaps flirting with some periods of sun.

A warmer and more stable air mass will ease in from the west starting tomorrow, and especially on Saturday and Sunday.  However, there is now enough moisture present that we could still see a lot of cloudiness build up during the mid-day and afternoon hours, along with some isolated thundershower development.  Yes, there are bright spots at times during the monsoon season, but they don't normally hang around for very long.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

juicing up... (pm.24.jun.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C) -- @ 6:30pm during shwrs
High temp: 76.6F (24.8C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm) -- updated @ 8:10pm

We're finally getting some light rain showers this evening -- which began around 6:15pm.  The day has alternated between periods of thick cloudiness and some decent periods of sunshine during the mid-day hours, and there have been some traces of fog trying hard to develop around the area since late this afternoon.  Our average humidity since around noon has been very close to 70%, indicating that the moisture content of our air mass continues to rise.

An upper-level disturbance is centered over northern Afghanistan this evening, with a low pressure circulation over central Gujarat.  The air mass across northwest India continues to 'juice up', as tropical moisture invades from the south and southeast.  These are all the same ingredients we've been tracking for the last few days, as we were anticipating this spell of rainy weather.  The overall scenario has changed quite a bit during the past 24 hours though, as the computer models continue the trend of showing the heaviest rainfall potential just to our east.  It now looks like extreme eastern Himachal into Uttarakhand will bear the brunt of this weather system between now and late Thursday night -- but that doesn't mean we get off with nothing.  There are still going to be waves of rain and possible thunderstorms through tomorrow evening, which could bring us some locally moderate to heavy rainfall totals in our general area.  The risk of some isolated to scattered thundershower development exists on Friday as well, though there should be some short-lived evidence of stabilization that will carry us through most of the weekend.

But we've now reached the point when tropical moisture associated with the advancing monsoon will remain precariously close... even if we do get a couple of days of more stable conditions with temporarily lower humidity.  That means a more moisture-laden air mass and better rain chances re-enter the picture by Monday into Tuesday.

Check out tabs at the top of the page for forecast details and monsoon status/info.

following the evolution... (am.24.jun.15)>

Clouds have been thickening up during the past hour, and we have mostly cloudy skies at the moment.  I'm recording a current temp of 66.8F (19.3C), which is close to the overnight low of 66.0F (18.9C).  The humidity reading stands at 50%, and there has been no precipitation since last report.

Last evening's data was showing a different trend in the evolution/development of our weather scenario, and this morning, all of the computer models have come into agreement.  The trend is for the heaviest rain development to occur further to the east-southeast of us -- more toward Shimla and Dehra Dun -- and for the vast majority of the moisture to be swept out of here by mid-day Thursday.  This is in stark contrast to projections just 18 to 24 hours ago, so we'll have to continue to watch the data to see if there's a reversal.

Anyway, we're still talking about a rather strong upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest, a low pressure circulation now arriving on the Gujarat coast moving northeastward, and deep tropical moisture creeping northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains.  There will be scattered showers and thundershowers all across northwest India in association with these converging features... with some localized pockets of very heavy rainfall between later today and Thursday afternoon/evening.  Again, the data is now basically leaving us out of the heaviest rain potential, but let's keep a close eye on things during the next 24-36 hours or so.

The Friday through Sunday period is looking remarkably good... as this system pushes well off to the east, allowing a return to sunshine and warmer temperatures.  There could still be some isolated mainly PM thunder development, however.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details, and follow AWAITING MONSOON 2015 for the latest statements from the IMD.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

threats and concerns... (pm.23.jun.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 74.3F (23.5C) -- updated @ 8:14pm
Rainfall since 7:00am: trace
24 hour rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

There's a broken layer of mid-level cloudiness overhead this evening, but we're getting some nice glimpses of sunshine anyway.  Most of today's fresh thundershower development has been occurring to our south and east, leaving us with a day dominated by clouds -- though we have had some of these peeks of sunshine here and there.  There were even some traces of fog trying to develop during the mid-afternoon, just as I had noticed the humidity reading spiking at 70%... though it didn't last long.  There have been only some random and fleeting sprinkles of rain today.

We are poised right on the brink of a very interesting 48-60 hour period of weather, as several features converge on Himalayan north India.  The very latest data coming out, which I've just sifted through, is showing a more rapidly moving system, and also one that could focus the very heaviest rainfall just to our east.  It could be a fluke in the data, or it could be a trend -- we'll have to watch it.  At any rate, a rather strong upper-level disturbance is dropping southeastward from central Asia, containing some unusually cool air for late June.  Simultaneously, a low pressure circulation over the northern Arabian Sea will be heading toward the northeast.  AND -- the deepest and richest batch of tropical moisture of the season will continue to creep in from the southeast.  All of this puts us pretty close to the target zone for some very heavy rain and thunderstorms to develop during the next 12 to 24 hours, which could last into mid-day Thursday at the earliest, or mid-day Friday at the latest.  Again, as is usually the case with a complex system like this, computer models are showing some very divergent solutions... but there will definitely be the heaviest rainfall totals that we've seen since last year's monsoon season somewhere across Himachal into Uttarakhand by Friday.

A drying and warming trend will kick in by late Friday, with only a risk of an isolated mainly PM thundershower over the weekend.  But this time of year the moisture doesn't stay away for long, so periods of rain and thunder will be back in the forecast by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015.

a convergence... (am.23.jun.15)>

It is mostly cloudy at the moment, the temp is 63.5F (17.5C), and the humidity is 55%.  A period of showers and thunder which began around 4:00am has just recently come to an end -- but it delivered only 0.10" (3mm) to my rain gauge here in the upper part of town.  I'm recording an overnight low of 59.5F (15.3C).

That one-tenth of an inch of rain early this morning is exactly the same amount we received yesterday between about noon and 2:00pm -- so though we've been receiving some random showers the last couple of days, amounts have been fairly light.  It certainly looks like that's going to change shortly, however, as ingredients start coming together to bring a period of heavy to very heavy rainfall to a large part of Himalayan north India.

The most juicy batch of tropical moisture of this pre-monsoon season continues to creep northward, as not one but TWO dynamic features converge on us.  The first is an upper-level disturbance dropping in from the west-northwest that will contain significantly cooler air aloft -- the second is a low pressure circulation which will push northeastward from the Arabian Sea, bringing an even more concentrated batch of tropical moisture.  There will be more of this isolated to scattered thundershower activity in our area through today and tonight, but it's still looking like Wednesday through Thursday night hold the best potential for some periods of very heavy rainfall.  The timing is different between the various computer models -- some targetting Wednesday, while some target Thursday -- but it looks like we'll be getting a lot of rain sometime during that time frame.

We should see some degree of improvement starting on Friday, with relatively quieter weather expected over the weekend.  BUT -- moisture will be on the increase again by Monday with rain chances on the rise.

Get the latest forecast on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.  And of course keep on top of AWAITING MONSOON 2015 as well.

Monday, June 22, 2015

tropical moisture to surge... (pm.22.jun.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)
High temp: 77.5F (25.3C)
Rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

It's very comfortable this evening, with partly cloudy skies and humidity levels remaining in the 55-60% range.  We had extreme variability between sunshine and clouds today, with early morning sun quickly giving way to increasing clouds, and then a period of light showers and some thunder which started up right around noon, but ended not long after 2:00pm.  The sun again returned, and has been with us for most of the remainder of the day.  The day's low temperature (see stats above) occurred during those early afternoon showers.

Our overall weather scenario is very much on track for this time of year, as we continue to transition out of Himalayan summer and into the monsoon season.  I hope you've had a chance to read through AWAITING MONSOON 2015 on a tab above, as that discussion details the metamorphosis that is currently in progress.  There have only been some light showers since the episode of heavy rain early Sunday morning came to an end, but deep tropical moisture will be converging on Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 to 36 hours, and that's going to put us under the gun for some heavy rainfall and thunderstorms during the mid-week period.  Scattered thundershowers are again a good bet between later tonight and tomorrow night, but computer model data is still painting a very very wet picture for us during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame -- as it has been projecting for the past several days.  There could be changes in conditions, of course, but right now it looks like we're going to get slammed pretty hard.

There should be some sort of break in the action between Friday and Sunday, with rain chances going down, and sunshine potential going up... but juicy tropical air will surge back in quickly... with rain chances on the increase again by Monday of next week.

Get all the forecast specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK located at the top of this page.

only previews... (am.22.jun.15)>

Our Monday morning is dawning with mostly clear skies.  The temperature has barely budged all night long -- it's around 66F (17C) right now, and the overnight low was 65.5F (18.6C).  The current humidity reading is 58%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

We had our first preview of the approaching monsoon season over the weekend, with a couple of periods of heavy rainfall between Friday night and very early Sunday morning.  It's still not the real thing, though, as our atmosphere has not even come close to reaching the kind of long-term saturation that prevails once the monsoon gets settled in.  In fact, in these very early stages, there are often numerous surges and retreats of deeper tropical moisture up here along the front slopes of the Himalayas -- and that's what we're going to be seeing during this final week of June and the first several days of July.

There will probably be some isolated to scattered shower and thundershower development across our general area both today and tomorrow, but with a decent amount of sunshine as well.  Humidity will continue to run in the moderate range of roughly 50-65% or so.  By late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, we'll be seeing another strong surge of moisture-laden air pushing in from the south-southeast, while a rather potent upper-level disturbance slides in from the northwest.  This will likely set us up for a few waves of heavier rain and thunderstorms -- mainly on Wednesday and Thursday -- with things calming down again by Thursday night into Friday.  The weekend is actually looking pretty good at the moment, but the next surge of moisture won't be far away...

Get a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and also AWAITING MONSOON 2015 on tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

the summer solstice... (pm.21.jun.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.04" (1mm)
24 hour rainfall: 1.94" (4.9cm)

It's a good-looking evening out there, with only a few clouds lingering as the sun heads toward the horizon.  Our Sunday turned out much better than it looked like it might -- considering what was happening during the early morning hours.  Light rain showers moved off quickly to the east, with some back-and-forth between clouds and sun during the morning hours, but then mostly sunny skies throughout the afternoon.  New thundershower development today occurred both to our northwest, and also to the southeast, but we were spared.  Humidity today has remained very close to 60%.

It was a nice treat to end up in a little bubble of stability for most of today.  Though there's plenty of moisture in this air mass, the disparity between temperatures in different layers of the atmosphere was quelled in the wake of the heavy rain and thunder very early this morning.  BUT -- instability will be building up again, with a good chance of some thundershower development once again during the coming 24 to 48 hours.  There will also continue to be periods of sunshine which will make it feel warmer than the thermometer would indicate, due to the rising humidity levels.

Things are still looking particularly unstable and ominous and very wet during the Wednesday-Thursday period, as advancing moisture from the southeast meets up with a rather strong upper-level system and cooler air aloft coming in from the northwest.  But then -- this first surge of tropical moisture will retreat, leaving us with what could be a very pleasant few days over the weekend into early next week.

It's the summer solstice, by the way..... which means the longest day of the year.  Check out tabs above for forecast details and other info.

a wetter outlook... (am.21.jun.15)>

Skies are cloudy and very light rain is falling early this Sunday morning.  The current temperature is 61.5F (16.4C), and the humidity is 61%.  We've had a spell of heavy rain and thunder/lightning overnight -- most of it occurring between roughly 1:00 and 5:00am -- and there's 1.90" (4.8cm) in the rain gauge to show for it.  The low temp of 57.7F (14.3C) occurred during that heavy rain episode.

It's not officially the monsoon season, and it will likely be at least several days before the IMD brings that monsoon onset line into Himachal Pradesh, but 3.25" (8.2cm) of rain in the past 36 hours -- since late Friday evening -- is enough to tell us that we're on our way.  If you're a regular reader/follower, you've been keeping up with the step-by-step and day-by-day evolution of our atmosphere recently, and you're well-acquainted with the factors in play.  Basically, the atmosphere all across the Indian sub-continent is becoming more and more packed with rich and juicy tropical moisture, and that very moist air mass has been creeping north and northwestward the last few days.  At the same time, a west-northwesterly flow in the upper-levels is delivering a few minor disturbances containing slightly cooler air aloft.  This is a certain recipe for significant shower and thunderstorm development all along the front ranges of the Himalayas.  According to satellite pics and the data/charts, I still think we'll be able to come up with hours of dry weather and some sunshine from time to time, but the risk of moderate to heavy downpours will never really go away -- until perhaps the very end of the week.

A particularly strong upper-level circulation will move across our very moist air mass on Wednesday into Thursday, which concerns me that we could get a couple of periods of very heavy rainfall somewhere in our general vicinity during that time frame.  Temperatures will obviously settle into a cooler zone than we experienced most of last week, but that's what normally happens this time of year.

Follow the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015 on tabs above.

Saturday, June 20, 2015

humidity going higher... (pm.20.jun.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall since 7:00am: 0.24" (6mm)
24 hour rainfall: 1.35" (3.4cm)

We have partly cloudy and hazy skies across the area this evening, as our humidity levels continue to rise.  The average relative humidity during the past few hours has been in the 65-70% range -- and that's the highest I've recorded this summer season.  We had the expected fluctuations between clouds and sun today, and also the expected period or two of rain showers which were confined mostly to the mid-afternoon.  You can see from the rainfall stats above that we've had a pretty hefty total since late last evening.  Although my high temp was below 80ºF today, it seemed warmer -- due to the significant rise in humidity.

All I can say this evening is that the weather charts continue to show us pushing steadily toward monsoon conditions here in Himachal Pradesh.  An increasingly moisture-laden air mass is sneaking northward, as some slightly cooler air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere starts to sink southward into northern India.  This is the perfect combination of ingredients to set off occasional rather widespread areas of rain and thunderstorms across the Himalayas of northern India -- and it looks like that's likely to happen all the way through most of next week.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking particularly ominous at this point.  None of this is very much out of the ordinary, as the final week to ten days of June are typically a transition period into the monsoon season.  We've been preparing ourselves for this, and now the time is near.

On the bright side, extended range charts are showing some kind of respite/retreat of deeper moisture and instability by next weekend -- so that could provide us with a break in the action before the monsoon gets firmly established.

Check the tabs at the top of the page for details on the forecast and the advancing monsoon.

seasonal shifts... (am.20.jun.15)>

It's mostly cloudy at the moment, with a temp of 67.5F (19.7C) and a humidity reading of 50%.  Our overnight hours were very active, with thundershowers developing right on top of us last evening around 8:30-8:45pm, then continuing off and on until just the last couple of hours.  My rain gauge shows 1.11" (2.8cm) in total -- and the thermometer indicates that our low temp was 59.2F (15.1C) in the midst of that rainfall.

The summer solstice is nearly upon us, and so are the first signs of the approaching monsoon season.  The ridge of high pressure that protected us from thundershower development for a few days started to break down late yesterday, as a strong push of moisture-laden air approaches from the south and southeast.  The whole dynamic and thermodynamic nature of our atmosphere is already undergoing a shift, which will be more and more obvious during this coming week.  As I mentioned last evening, there will probably not be monsoon declarations from the India Met Department for our area this week, but we're definitely going to be getting our first taste of monsoon conditions, with some periods of moderate to heavy rain likely -- all the way through Thursday at least.  In between periods of rain and thunder, there will also be some periods of sunshine, so all is not lost.

Our humidity levels are only moderate at this point, but we could be dealing with some periods of 80-100% humidity in just a few days, which could mean our first episodes of fog as well.  As far as temperatures are concerned... a few hours of sunshine will warm us up significantly, but with increasing amounts of clouds, rain and potentially some fog, the next 5-6 days will average out cooler than it's been this past week.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015 can be found on tabs above.

Friday, June 19, 2015

moisture surging... (pm.19.jun.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 70.2F (21.2C)
High temp: 82.9F (28.3C)
Rainfall: trace

We have mostly cloudy skies just before sunset this evening, and that has been the case since the mid-afternoon.  The full sunshine early this morning didn't last long, with clouds rapidly developing over the mountains, and keeping us in the back-and-forth mode with regard to sun/clouds for most of the day.  There was some weak thundershower development in our vicinity after 3:00pm, but all I saw around town were some sprinkles and brief, very light rain showers which were all over by about 4:45pm.  The rain gauge is showing nothing measurable.  Yes, the humidity is creeping upward (now close to 55%), and it is quite noticeable, in my opinion.

We're now right on the brink of a transition from summer into the monsoon season here in Himalayan north India -- though it's probably going to be quite a while before we get any kind of official monsoon declarations from the IMD.  The strong high pressure ridge which has kept us stable since about Monday afternoon is now beginning to break down, as a rather deep southeasterly flow develops in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Rich tropical moisture will be pumped northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains over the weekend, just as the upper-levels start to cool off just a bit.  This combination will set us up for an increasing chance of some waves of significant shower and thunderstorm activity -- effective almost immediately.  Even overnight we could see some thundershower development across Himachal Pradesh, with those rain chances steadily increasing through Sunday.  We're not talking about continuous rainfall... but it's the time of year when heavy downpours lasting at least a couple of hours are becoming more likely.

All of next week is looking quite wet, as our average daily humidity levels rise dramatically.  With more clouds, more humidity, and more cloudiness, temperatures will cool down.  And that's actually the upside factor once the monsoon season settles in.

Stay on top of developments on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015 -- on tabs at the top of the page.

our warmest night... (am.19.jun.15)>

We have hazy but generally clear skies as the sun comes up this Friday morning.  And for the first and only time this season and year, I'm recording an overnight low above 70ºF -- the temp dropped to only 70.2F (21.2C) just before dawn.  There has been no rainfall to report.

Most of northwest India is still under the influence of a big ridge of high pressure which is centered over Iran.  This weather feature has kept us dry and stable for the past three days, though we've still had to contend with a daily build-up of clouds along the mountains.  It's also delivering one of our warmest periods of the whole summer season, though increasing humidity and those mountain clouds have kept us from reaching the season's high of 89.4F (31.9C) which occurred back on the 23rd of May.  But there's still a chance of that happening either today or tomorrow (Sat), depending on the interplay between sunshine and clouds.

There are some dramatic changes on the way, however, and those changes should be occurring rather quickly over the weekend.  As we've already been talking about, the first significant surge of rich tropical moisture of the year will be creeping in from the south-southeast -- the effects of which should be quite obvious by Sunday.  Our humidity readings the last several days have been mainly in the 40-50% range, but they should rise much higher than that as this tropical air moves in -- while also giving us a much better chance of some waves of showers and thunderstorms.  The models are showing this juicy air mass remaining with us for most of next week, so it looks like we're going to be getting our first taste of the approaching monsoon.  Stay tuned as we follow what happens...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has forecast details (above).  And remember to check AWAITING MONSOON 2015 for the latest statements/declarations from the India Met Dept.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

interesting times... (pm.18.jun.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 68.2F (20.1C)
High temp: 84.5F (29.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy and very warm this evening just as the sun sets... and the rise in humidity is becoming more noticeable.  We started off with hazy sunshine this morning, but cloud development over the mountains got going well before noon, leading to a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies which lasted for much of the afternoon.  Those clouds kept our temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than expected, but the uptick in humidity seemed to make up for that.  There was no shower/thunder development in the area today, in spite of the clouds.

A broad area of very warm air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere extends from the Persian Gulf into northwest India -- taking the form of a sprawling ridge of high pressure.  Though we're still getting the mid-day and afternoon cloud development along the mountains, this air mass is too stable to allow the warmth and moisture near the surface to rise high enough to explode into thundershowers.  It looks like that general stability will remain with us tomorrow, with another day of mixed sunshine and clouds... along with temperatures pushing into the range of the warmest of the season and the year.

As the weekend arrives, so will some changes.  The most moisture-packed air mass of this pre-monsoon season will be creeping northwestward along the Himalayas -- and already that increase in humidity is becoming apparent.  At the same time, we'll start to see some gradual cooling aloft.  This combination will produce a much better chance of some significant rain shower and thunderstorm development over the weekend, though we may have to wait until Saturday night or Sunday for things to really come together.  It's then looking like we're going to be experiencing borderline monsoon conditions during much of next week.  And actually, that would be pretty much on schedule.  We are on the brink.

Explore the rest of the blog for lots more info........

strong high pressure ridge... (am.18.jun.15)>

Some scattered clouds are visible to the south, otherwise it's mostly clear and hazy at sunrise this Thursday morning.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town is one of the warmest of the year -- 68.2F (20.1C) -- and there has been no precipitation since last report.  The humidity reading is 48%.

A huge ridge of high pressure has been nosing into northwest India the last 36 hours or so, and will strengthen and push in even more aggressively during the coming 24 hours.  High pressure is a mark of stability, with warmer air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere preventing packets of air from rising too high, and thus preventing the development of much shower/thunderstorm activity.  Of course our dynamics along the front slopes of the mountains can counteract that effect when there is strong daytime heating of the surface layers occurring... but we should see only weak and isolated afternoon thunder development, if any, through Friday.  Hazy sun and occasional clouds will be the dominant features of our weather, along with temperatures warming close to the highest levels of the season and the year.  The warmest temp I've recorded this year was 89.4F (31.9C) back on the 23rd of May -- and that could be surpassed by the time Saturday afternoon rolls around.

The other major thing happening will be an increase in our humidity.  Models continue to advertise the first surge of real tropical moisture of this pre-monsoon season over the weekend, as a deep southeasterly flow begins to develop.  The risk of some heavier showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase as early as Saturday, but more likely on Sunday into Monday, as the moisture content of our air mass rises dramatically.  Yes, it is an interesting time of year!

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details on the tab above.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

stable and very warm... (pm.17.jun.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
High temp: 85.4F (29.7C)
Rainfall: none

A comfortably warm evening is in progress, with only a few clouds scattered across the sky as the sun sets.  For the second day in a row we've had ZERO rainfall, though there was again some impressive cumulus cloud development over the mountains during the mid-day.  For a while during the early afternoon it looked like we might hear some thunder or see a few drops of rain, but at least where I was, that never happened.  The sun became dominant again by the late afternoon, allowing the high temp for the day to get very close to 86ºF/30ºC.

That high pressure ridge to our west-southwest we've been discussing recently crept a little further in our direction today, and will build even more aggressively into northwest India tomorrow (Thu) and Friday.  It's already been doing a good job of stabilizing our atmosphere, and we should continue to experience generally stable conditions for the next 48 hours or so.  Expect this mix of sunshine and mainly mountain cloudiness to continue -- with our temps rising higher during the next couple of days.  Unless we get too much afternoon cloud development, we could be dealing with the highest temps of the season and the year -- close to 90ºF/32ºC.

The humidity hasn't been too hard to deal with yet, as it has remained in the 40-45% range for the most part.  BUT -- it's still looking like we're going to see the very first surge of genuine tropical moisture over the weekend.  That will make it feel much more muggy and sticky, while also significantly increasing our risk of some periods of rain and thunderstorms.  Our first taste of the advancing monsoon may not be too far away...

Check out tabs above for further details.

heat is building... (am.17.jun.15)>

A beautiful morning is shaping up -- we have totally clear skies at dawn, with very comfortable temperatures.  I'm recording an overnight low of 66.7F (19.3C) which has occurred just in the last half hour.  Humidity stands at 40%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

We're enjoying a period of general stability, thanks to a strengthening bubble of high pressure which continues to push in from the west-southwest.  In fact, it's maybe the strongest high pressure ridge we've seen this entire season, and the computer model data has been consistent for a few days now in showing temperatures from central Pakistan into northwest India near or maybe even slightly above anything we've experienced yet this year -- especially between today and Friday or Saturday.  That means we may yet get another run at 90ºF (32ºC) before deeper tropical moisture moves in and erases our potential for that kind of heat.

Of course we still have to be on guard for the build-up of clouds over the mountains toward the noon hour, with a mentionable risk of an isolated thundershower during the afternoons or early evenings.  Otherwise, expect lots of sunshine as we enjoy what could be our last period of genuine summertime temps the next few days.

The leading edge of the monsoon has made some significant northward movements during the last week to ten days, but it's still very far away from us.  However, the first significant surge of juicy tropical moisture could slide northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains this weekend, with an increasing chance of some periods of heavier showers and thunderstorms by Sunday into Monday.  We'll be watching that closely...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015 can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

clinging to summer... (pm.16.jun.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
High temp: 83.6F (28.7C)
Rainfall: none

There's a broad bank of mid-level clouds hovering along the Dhauladhars at sunset this evening, with mainly clear skies to the south.  Our expected warm-up did indeed kick in today, with my high temp in the upper part of town more than 10ºF (5ºC) warmer than yesterday's.  Our sky hasn't been totally cloud-free, as there have been attempts at development over the mountains since the late morning, but none of it ever really took hold.  I never saw any raindrops at all -- basically a very nice and warm mid-June day.

I was a little surprised that our next weather feature -- a strong high pressure ridge -- exerted its influence so strongly today.  It will continue to build in from the west-southwest during most of the remainder of this week, furnishing some very warm air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere that will really put a damper on our recent cycles of afternoon, evening and overnight instability.  We can't absolutely rule out an isolated thundershower or two at some point, but the vast majority of our hours will be dry and quiet, with plenty of daytime sunshine.  Based on the major warm-up today, I am more confident that we're going to be challenging the warmest temperatures of the season and the year between tomorrow and Friday or Saturday.  And with humidity on the rise by the end of the week, that's going to spell some uncomfortably muggy conditions for us.

Thereafter, we have to face our first real surge of juicy tropical moisture ahead of the monsoon's advance -- by Saturday night or Sunday.  Right now the models are showing some significant rain and thunderstorm development happening by then, which could continue off and on during at least the early part of next week.

Don't forget to check tabs at the top of the home page for forecast, monsoon, and plenty of other info.

a fresh warming trend... (am.16.jun.15)>

As mid-June mornings go, this is a nice one.  We have partly cloudy skies just as the sun rises over the mountains, and the temperature and humidity readings are very comfortable for the season.  I'm recording a low temp of 63.9F (17.7C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.

Our temperatures dipped below normal on Saturday, and have remained there ever since. We've had a few days of impressive north-northwesterly flow in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere that brought in some unseasonably cool temperatures, along with a couple of periods of healthy showers and thundershowers.  The pattern is again shifting, however, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.  A much warmer air mass will again ease into our area during the next 24-48 hours, and there could be enough warming aloft to diminish the cycle of instability that has been going on the last several days.  By this time of year it's asking a lot to totally ignore the risk of a mainly PM thundershower somewhere around the area, but I think we will be seeing a return to a greater percentage of sunshine, dramatically warmer temperatures, and lower shower/thunder chances -- mainly between Wednesday and Friday.

The data is pointing to the most uncomfortable combination of heat and humidity that we've seen yet this year by the middle and latter parts of this week -- let's see if that materializes or not.  THEN, the potential for some substantial rain gradually enters the picture over the weekend into early next week, as some deeper tropical moisture begins to come knocking...

Check tabs above for forecast details and monsoon info.

Monday, June 15, 2015

pleasantly mild... (pm.15.jun.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 54.9F (12.7C)
High temp: 73.4F (23.0C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.02" (less than 1mm)
24 hour rainfall: 0.66" (1.7cm)

A very pleasant evening is underway, with partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures.  Of course our Monday didn't start out that way, with lots of clouds and some light rain showers early this morning which didn't allow any sunshine to peek through until around 10:30am or so.  But during the noon hour we finally got the sun to take over, and our skies were partly to mostly sunny for most of the remainder of the day.  Even so, we had a lot of catching up to do, temperature-wise, and it stayed well below normal for the season... though pleasantly mild.

According to all the data, we should be transitioning into a more stable phase of weather during the next 24 hours, which should last until about Friday.  We could still get some thundershower development tonight, but warmer air arriving throughout all layers of the atmosphere should settle things down starting tomorrow (Tues).  There could still be an isolated/random thundershower popping up mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday, but for the most part it looks like we'll be enjoying generally dry and much warmer conditions.  I'm a little blown away with the temperatures being projected by some of the computer model data across northwest India between Wednesday and Saturday -- if it comes true, then we'll have the highest temps of the season and the year, along with higher humidity readings as well.  That means it could be quite uncomfortable for a few days before rain chances start increasing again.  Anyway, that's what the data/charts are saying now, but we'll have to watch how it evolves.

If you are interested in how the monsoon is advancing, you can follow AWAITING MONSOON 2015 on the tab above -- but I'll just remind you that we are now only about ten days to two weeks from the normal/average monsoon onset date here in the Dharamsala area.  Also, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details can be found on another tab at the top of the page.

gloomy monday morning... (am.15.jun.15)>

We're waking up to a gloomy, damp and chilly Monday morning -- with cloudy skies, light rain, and the temperature hovering just below 60ºF (16ºC).  Rain showers and thunder obviously redeveloped overnight, and I am finding a healthy 0.64" (1.6cm) in the rain gauge since last evening's report.  The low temp here at my location in the upper part of town was 54.9F (12.7C), which is very cool for the season.

Unseasonably cool air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere being brought into our area by a north-northwesterly flow aloft has not been getting along well with an increasing supply of moisture and relatively warmer air in the surface layers of our air mass.  This situation has kept us quite unstable the last few days, with these waves of showers and thunder happening on a daily basis.  In fact, I've measured about 1.75" (4.4cm) of rain since Wednesday evening -- that's just a drop in the bucket compared to what will be happening once the monsoon kicks in, but it's a noteworthy amount of rain nonetheless.

I'm optimistic that we'll see some sunshine returning today, but it's going to remain unstable enough that there will probably be more shower/thunder development over the course of the next 18 hours or so.  Computer models are showing a rather strong push of warmer air in the upper-levels starting tomorrow... and that should give us a period of more stable conditions for a few days.  Another major warm-up is on the way during the middle and latter parts of this week, with a good amount of summer sunshine, but also increasing humidity.  We can't rule out an isolated PM thundershower at some point either... which kind of goes without saying this time of the year.

AWAITING MONSOON 2015 on the tab above is something you should be following if you're interested in how that's going... also you can check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast specifics.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

sky always changing... (pm.14.jun.15)>

Sunday's stats: 

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
High temp: 73.2F (22.9C)
Rainfall: 0.13" (3mm)

Our evening sky is partly to mostly cloudy, here at the end of yet another day of lots of fluctuations between clouds and sun.  Nice sunshine early this morning was quickly replaced with rapid cloud development over the mountains by 10:00am or so, with the first light rain showers appearing not long after 11:00am.  We then had a few short periods of showers/thunder into the early afternoon, with the sun breaking out again almost exactly at 2:00pm.  Temperatures were several degrees below expectations, and also well below normal for mid-June.

The weather scenario is going to be interesting this week, with dynamic atmospheric changes occurring as we continue to transition from Himalayan summer into the early stages of the monsoon season.  In the near term, we're dealing with a northwesterly flow which is bringing in cooler than anticipated temperatures in the mid- and upper-levels.  This of course is not compatible with strong June sunshine and an increasingly moisture-laden air mass creeping into northern India.  That's why we're having these daily doses of showers and/or thunder for a couple of hours every day.  It's unstable, and will remain so through tomorrow (Mon) and even tomorrow night -- with more isolated to scattered thundershower development a good bet.

An impressive-looking bubble of much warmer air is building to our west-southwest however, and should push in during the mid-week period.  Right now it appears that we could have a few days of more stable conditions, but also a return to much warmer temperatures and more noticeable and uncomfortable humidity levels.  And then... there could be a turn to heavier rain potential by about one week from now.

Keep an eye on AWAITING MONSOON 2015 (above), and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (also on a tab above).

mid-june issues... (am.14.jun.15)>

As the sun comes up this morning we have just a few patches of higher clouds, otherwise it's mostly clear.  The night was calm and quiet with no rainfall -- and my overnight low has been 61.7F (16.5C), which is actually quite a bit cooler than normal for this time of year.

By the middle of June, we're normally on the brink of saying goodbye to reliable summer weather and hello to the first signs of the approaching monsoon.  The weather charts/data the last several days have been hinting at that, especially the extended range data looking a week or ten days into the future.  There's going to be a slow and gradual increase in the moisture content of our air mass during that time frame -- and already we've been flirting with some higher humidity that has made its presence known for only short durations.  There's also going to be a batch of much warmer air pushing in by the middle of next week -- perhaps for the last time this season -- giving us a taste of uncomfortably warm and humid conditions for a at least a couple of days.  Anyway, it's interesting to watch how the atmosphere begins to realign itself as the seasons start to change.

In the short term... we've had some cooler air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere arrive from the northwest (since yesterday), which will allow an impressive amount of instability to build over our area after a few hours of strong June sunshine.  This will lead to more episodes of showers/thunder and maybe some gusty winds in isolated to scattered places around our area both today and tomorrow.  For the last week, actually, we've seen lots of fluctuations between very warm sunshine, clouds, and thundershowers -- which is pretty much the way it goes during these pre-monsoon weeks.

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details on the tab above.

Saturday, June 13, 2015

alternating and fluctuating... (pm.13.jun.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 78.8F (26.0C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

It's mostly clear this evening, despite just a few scattered mid-level clouds here and there.  We've certainly seen the expected alternations between clouds and sun today, along with a period of very light rain showers which got started earlier than they have the last several days.  It was overcast by late morning, and I noticed the first brief shower around 11:45am -- though it didn't last for long.  In fact, other brief showers up until 1:15pm or so barely registered a measurement in the rain gauge, and we were back to partly to mostly sunny skies as the afternoon wore on.  Still, those mid-day clouds and raindrops held our temps down today -- my high was the coolest of the past week.

We continue to see variations on the same theme -- alternations between periods of sun and periods of clouds, along with a fairly short period of showers at some point from mid-day into the afternoon and evening hours.  The northwesterly flow aloft that has dominated our weather pattern for about a week will continue for another couple of days, with some pockets of cooler air in the upper atmosphere being carried in, which will increase our instability factor tomorrow (Sun) and Monday.  We've had at least a few raindrops almost every day this month, but most days the showers are brief, and the amounts very light.  There could be something more substantial between Sunday and Monday night, but I think we'll also see sunshine in the midst of it.

It might be a little bit too courageous to remove the risk of an isolated thundershower from the foreast between Tuesday and Thursday of next week -- but it does look like we've got a chance at some stability for a few days as warmer air surges in aloft.  But at the same time, our humidity will be on the rise, along with temperatures.  I'm still thinking some of the most uncomfortably warm/humid weather of the year is still in our future.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK along with other info, including the monsoon update.