the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

drama-free transition... (pm.31.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 55.4F (13.0C)
High temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
Rainfall: none

There are a few scattered clouds around the area at dusk this evening, along with some remaining haze in the air.  Our air mass today wasn't as chock full of haze and dust, etc., as it was yesterday, so we managed to see significant improvement.  There were some mainly mountain clouds... there was some haze... but the sunshine did a good job as well, making for a very nice end to the month of October.  My high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest of the past eight days.

Yesterday at this time I mentioned that we would need to warm up a few degrees to cancel out the inversion that had trapped us -- and that did indeed happen today.  Better warming at the surface ignited some vertical movement of the air mass by late morning, breaking up the stagnancy a bit.  It's still very warm in the upper-levels, thanks to a big ridge of high pressure sprawled across the western Himalayas.  The next two to three days should remain quiet and calm, as our temps climb even another degree or two.  November will arrive noticeably warmer than normal/average for the season.

The next main issue to deal with will be an approaching upper-level disturbance expected to scoot across Himalayan north India during the mid-week period.  Models are showing at least a moderate risk of some shower/thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Thursday, though that rain chance should drop again for the tail end of the week.

Other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK which contains our forecast details.

Friday, October 30, 2015

stable/stagnant... (pm.30.oct.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
High temp: 62.9F (17.2C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is 100% clear this evening as the sunset's glow fades in the west.  The air quality and visibility was horrendous for much of the day, thanks (or no thanks) to an inversion which trapped haze, smoke, dust, pollution, etc., in the lower layers of the atmosphere.  That was evident since early this morning -- though there has been some improvement since the mid-afternoon.  Still, the sun itself was visible most of the day through the murky air.

Incredibly dramatic warming in the upper-layers of the atmosphere combined with lingering cooler air at the surface was the recipe for our inversion today.  When it's warmer at the surface and cooler aloft, there's a natural upward vertical lift during the daytime hours which disperses any particulates in the atmosphere.  With the much warmer air aloft, whatever dirt and dust in the lower levels wasn't able to go anywhere... making for a hazy day.  Yes, it was very stable today, but we experienced the downside of too much stability.

The upper-levels will remain quite warm for this time of year through the weekend, so unless we can warm up a few degrees here at ground level, we may have to deal with more of this stagnancy during the next couple of days.  Otherwise, there's virtually no chance of rainfall, with temperatures running a little bit above normal for the October/November transition period.

The pattern is looking potentially active by the middle of next week, as the main branch of the jet stream sags southward and allows a series of disturbances to set sights on northern India.

Forecast details for the next week can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

the subjectivity factor... (pm.29.oct.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 52.2F (11.2C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

Lingering clouds are rapidly disappearing this evening during the hour after sunset, though it is rather hazy.  We had a morning filled with glorious sunshine, but a few traces of cumulus clouds appeared along the Dhauladhars by noon, and then there was an explosion of cloudiness all along the mountains during the early to mid-afternoon hours which eclipsed our sunshine completely from time to time after about 2:30pm.  Humidity ranged from 40-50%, with temperatures slightly cooler than projected.

I have learned over the years that people's perceptions of temperatures are highly subjective -- even among those who live here semi-permanently.  Just in the last two days I had one person say to me, "It's been really warm so far this autumn, hasn't it?"  And then another, "It's getting really cold really early this year, isn't it?"  This happens not only in the fall, but throughout the year.  Just observe what people are wearing in the market throughout the day, and you'll see evidence of this sometimes mind-boggling disparity in terms of how people are personally interpreting the temperature.  All of this to say -- I can only tell you what the thermometer is saying, and provide some kind of a context according to what might be either above or below normal for the season.  Whether you think it is hot or cold depends on you.!

Anyway -- the upper-level disturbance which has been the main weather-maker in our area since way back on Sunday is now centered over southcentral Uttar Pradesh, and continues to drift off to the east.  Warmer air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere is trying to build across northwest India, but as evidenced by this afternoon's mountain cloud development issues, we're still dealing with a slightly unsettled air mass.  The next several days will be characterized by more sunshine vs cloud competition, but overall, things are looking quite nice.

Back to the temperature quirks -- we have been averaging above normal for most of this past month, and it looks like that trend will continue as we cross over into November.

Many other bits of info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, can be found on tabs above.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

increasingly stable... (pm.28.oct.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
Rainfall: none

It seems to me that our sky consists of about 50% cloud cover as darkness descends this evening.  And actually most of the day we've been experiencing a battle between sunshine and occasional cloudiness, though most of those clouds have remained in the vicinity of the mountains since about mid-morning.  The average humidity at my location in the upper part of town was around 42%, as temperatures ran just slightly above normal for this time of year.

Since last weekend we've been talking about a slow-moving upper-level disturbance/circulation center which has been tracking from central Asia into northwest India.  The center of that disturbance is over northern Rajasthan this evening -- close enough to us to generate this scattered cloudiness, and even a few isolated showers across mainly southeastern parts of Himachal Pradesh.  It will be pulling away to the east tomorrow into Friday, which should take any lingering instablity with it.  A general ridge of high pressure will build in as we approach the weekend, providing us with dry weather and sunny to partly cloudy skies.

Apart from a couple of temporary dips due to rain/thunder this month, our temperatures have been consistently warmer than normal.  Yes, the trend has been gradually downward, but the cooling this autumn season is definitely running behind the curve.  In fact, we may actually climb one or two degrees over the course of the next three or four days.

Lots more information can be found on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

looking quiet... (pm.27.oct.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.4F (11.9C)
High temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
Rainfall: none

It is partly cloudy at dusk this evening, here at the end of a relatively nice late October day.  We've had clouds in the vicinity of the mountains all day -- even since the early morning hours -- but sunshine has turned out to be the dominant feature here in town.  Humidity has averaged close to 45%, and temperatures have been slightly warmer than expected.

An upper-level low pressure circulation is spinning over northern Pakistan, and will drift south-southeastward into extreme northern Rajasthan by this time tomorrow.  Despite the energy aloft and an associated pool of very cold air up there above 15,000ft or so, pretty much all of the significant moisture has been swept out of here and well off to the southeast.  As I mentioned last evening, that means that what's left of this system is totally out of sync, and unable to trigger anything other than the most isolated shower action across Himalayan north India.  There's a better chance of some significant rainfall across central and northcentral India during the next three days or so as this upper-level system scoots off to the east.

For us, things are looking quiet and dry and rather pleasant as we finish off the month.  Low humidity, seasonably comfortable temperatures and sunny to partly cloudy skies should be in order all the way through the coming weekend.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Monday, October 26, 2015

an eventful day... (pm.26.oct.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 46.2F (7.9C)
High temp: 62.0F (16.7C)
Rainfall: 0.85" (2.2cm)

This afternoon's earthquake in northern Afghanistan won the buzz this afternoon, with at least a minute or so of unnerving tremors here in McLeod and vicinity.  BUT - we also had some exciting weather to talk about, which occurred in the form of thunder, a period of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall, and some very gusty winds between about 2:00 and 6:00am.  There was even a coating of snow that was visible almost down to Triund, though it melted quickly this morning, leaving the most noticeble fresh snow all along the Dhauladhar range.  Clouds cleared out rapidly early this morning, but we did have a moderate build-up of cumulus in the vicinity of the mountains again by mid-day.  Even so, we escaped without any additional shower/thunder development.  Now at dusk, it's clear, with a bright, nearly-full moon rising in the eastern sky.

Coincidentally, the upper-level low pressure center responsible for our pre-dawn wet and stormy weather is located over northern Afghanistan this evening -- not far from where the epicenter of that quake was.  However, in spite of that dynamic energy aloft hanging very far to our west, most of the moisture in the low and middle layers of the atmosphere has already been shunted off to the east.  That means ingredients are now out of sync for significant redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms in association with this system.  We still have to have one eye open for an isolated shower or thundershower either tonight or Tuesday, but a drying air mass is already trying to establish itself.  That upper-level circulation will drop southeastward into Punjab and northern Rajasthan by Wednesday morning, then shift eastward, allowing a big ridge of high pressure to build into northwest India for the latter part of the week.

Temperatures will remain cool for the next couple of days, but it looks like we'll see a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend.  Mostly sunny skies and low humidity will accompany those comfortable temps.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, along with other local weather info on tabs above.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

a turbulent period... (pm.25.oct.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: trace

It's breezy this evening, with cloudy skies and a few very light sprinkles of rain in the air during the last hour or so.  Today has definitely been one of the gloomier days of our month-long post-monsoon period -- as clouds have dominated the skies persistently.  We had some very gusty winds as some rain/snow showers moved along the Dhauladhars during the pre-dawn, but the rest of the day has been quiet and dry, in spite of the cloudiness and recent sprinkles.  We have to go all the way back to the 16th of April to find a day with a cooler high temp than we had today.

The alpha weather feature right now is a strengthening upper-level low pressure circulation over northwestern Afghanistan, which is going to shift east-southeastward only slowly during the next 72 hours or so.  By Wednesday morning it should be centered over eastern Punjab, but by that time the rain risk should have diminished.  In the meantime, there is still a good chance of the development of scattered showers and maybe even a couple of thunderstorms from northern Pakistan into Himalayan north India -- and we're entering the best window of opportunity for that to occur right now.  If we do end up with significant rainfall (maybe around an inch/2.5cm??), it should happen between later tonight and Tuesday afternoon.  BUT -- there are still a couple of computer models which are showing much lighter amounts of precipitation.  With a turbulent atmosphere in general, expect some strong and gusty winds at times.

The coolest temperatures of this autumn season should be occurring during the coming three days or so, before a significant warming trend kicks in for the latter part of the week.  A building ridge of high pressure aloft by Thursday should usher in a rather lengthy period of stable weather.

There's lots more info on tabs at the top of the page, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

potentially messy... (pm.24.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.7F (13.7C)
High temp: 64.5F (18.1C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is partly to mostly cloudy tonight, as it has been throughout the day.  We did get some brief glimpses of sunshine from time to time, but mainly mid- and high-level cloudiness has been the main feature of the day.  Due to the limited sun, our temps were noticeably cooler.  Humidity, however, remained in the 40-50% range.

All week long there's been this anticipation of change in the overall weather scenario, and today those changes were rather obvious.  We're still watching an authentic fall-like upper-level disturbance/circulation center as it eases from northeastern Iran into Afghanistan.  This is going to be our main weather-maker over the course of the next 3-4 days, as it very slowly shifts east-southeastward.  There's still a very limited supply of moisture available for this system to work with, but the upper-level features may be enough to trigger some scattered areas of rain showers and thunderstorms anyway.  If we do end up getting significant rainfall, it still looks like the main timeframe for that would be between tomorrow (Sun) afternoon and Tuesday morning.  As usual, there is an amazing disparity between the various computer model solutions, but we need to be braced for action as this whole affair occurs.

Drier and more stable air should sweep in by late Tuesday, setting us up for a quiet and calm situation for the rest of the coming week.  Temperatures will cool off significantly at some point between tonight and Tuesday -- assuming we do get some rainfall -- but the next moderate warming trend will be on the way by Thursday into next weekend.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Friday, October 23, 2015

some changes afoot... (pm.23.oct.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 67.2F (19.6C)
Rainfall: none

Just like last evening, there are some high cirrus clouds scattered across the sky at dusk, otherwise we can call it mostly clear.  Temperatures continued to trend slightly lower today, though it was still very comfortable for the season -- thanks to abundant sunshine.  Clouds were again confined to the immediate mountain slopes during the afternoon hours.

A transitional period is on the way, as we watch a generally flat west-to-east upper-level flow replaced by an approaching low pressure disturbance/circulation over the course of the weekend into early next week.  Initially, this may not mean much for us, apart from an increase in mainly high cloudiness.  But computer models are showing better and better chances of scattered shower and thundershower development in our region by the latter half of the weekend, and especially during the Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning period.  Decent low-level moisture is lacking, but the upper-level energy may eventually compensate for that.  We will watch, of course.

By late Tuesday, there will still be an upper-level circulation nearby, but the next blast of drier air will be coming in from the north and northwest, setting us up for a quiet second half of the week.  Overall, temperatures will continue their gradual downward slide into more autumn-like conditions.

Forecast specifics can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

still superb... (pm.22.oct.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 68.1F (20.0C)
Rainfall: none

There are a few wispy high clouds above, otherwise it's mostly clear and beautiful as darkness settles in this Dussehra evening.  It's been another fantastic day, with mostly sunny skies (apart from PM mountain cumulus development), pleasant temps, and humidity between 40 and 45%.

A brisk westerly upper-level flow overruns a dry air mass in place across most of north India, and this set-up should keep things quiet and comfortable for another day or two.  We're still watching a developing upper-level storm system which will be organizing and sliding into the western Himalayan region by late Saturday.  RIght now it appears that the initial thundershower development will take place in the higher elevations to our north on Saturday, and perhaps into Sunday as well.  But this system will be a slow-mover, and as it pulls a moderate amount of moisture into its circulation, we will have to contend with a decent chance of a few waves of rain and thundertorms all the way into Tuesday.  If I had to nail it down, I think Sunday afternoon through late Monday night would be the target for the most significant rainfall and stormy conditions in our general area.

Although an upper-level rotation will remain overhead through the middle of next week, much drier air and stable air will take over -- and that should squash the shower potential by late Tuesday.  We'll have to keep an eye on the temperature forecast, as it could cool off significantly as this system rolls through....

Get a look at specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above).

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

very easy to take... (pm.21.oct.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: none

We've got another beautiful evening going on, with mostly clear skies at dusk, and temperatures continuing to run in a very comfortable range for this time of year.  The day has been mostly sunny, apart from the obligatory build-up of cumulus clouds over the Dhauladhars this afternoon.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town was steady in the 40-45% range.

The way things are looking right now, we should have another two or three days of this super-fine late October weather -- with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and seasonably pleasant temperatures.  However, by Saturday evening, some concerns start to enter the picture.  Computer models are projecting a visitation by a rather strong upper-level storm system by the second half of the weekend into early next week.  This time of year it's hard to get a whole lot of moisture gathered together, but the dynamics of this disturbance look impressive at this point, and the models are all showing a fairly widespread outbreak of showers and thunderstorms from northern Pakistan into northern India by Saturday night or Sunday -- lasting through Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.  It's out of the ordinary to get hit with an extended period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall during the final days of October, but we could be under the gun for something like that.  Keep abreast.

Temperatures will be turning much cooler with the advent of this system, with another blast of drier autumn air flowing into our area in its wake.

There's lots of other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, available on tabs above.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

generally gorgeous... (pm.20.oct.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 70.5F (21.4C)
Rainfall: 0.14" (4mm)

It's just a few minutes past sunset, and it's absolutely beautiful.  There are a few clouds lingering along the mountain slopes, otherwise we have mostly clear skies with pleasant temps and low humidity.  We did finally come up with a period or two of thundershowers very early this morning -- between about 3:00 and 4:15am -- which delivered a small amount of rain to my gauge here in the upper part of town.  But already the clouds had broken up by sunrise, and there never was any redevelopment of showers in our immediate area as sunshine held sway.  Humidity settled into the 45-50% range during the afternoon.

The upper-level disturbance/circulation which has been drifting across northern India since very late Sunday night has been very tame.  There has only been some scattered shower/thunder action across the western Himalayan region in association with this system, and it doesn't appear that much of it was particularly heavy.  Also, temperatures have failed to drop as much as expected, as we've hit the 70ºF mark both yesterday and today thanks to a good amount of sunshine.  To sum it up -- other than our wee hour thundershowers this morning and a temporary dip in temperatures, this little system has been almost a non-event.

A push of dry and generally stable air is expected to dominate for the remainder of this week, with humidity dropping into the 30-40% range and very little chance of any shower action.  Sunshine should be at least as plentiful as we've already seen this post-monsoon period.  However, there are ominous signs of a developing storm system by late Saturday into Sunday, which could keep occasional showers/thunder in the forecast all the way into Tuesday of next week.

Check out other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

things to deal with... (pm.18.oct.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 69.6F (20.9C)
Rainfall: none

There's a lot of lingering cloudiness around the area just after sunset tonight, with some patchy fog as well.  Last I checked, the crescent moon was visible in the southwestern sky in the midst of it all.  Once again we had stunning sunshine to start the day, with the first traces of mountain cloud development showing up between 10:00 and 11:00am.  Those clouds took over proceedings by the mid-afternoon, and there hasn't been a lot of sun since then.  Today's high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the warmest in exactly one week.

We're standing right on the brink of some changes this evening, as our anticipated upper-level circulation/disturbance moves across Turkmenistan -- on its way into Afghanistan by mid-day tomorrow (Mon).  This system does not have a tremendous amount of moisture to work with, but the mid- and upper-level dynamics are quite impressive.  That's why the computer models are trending toward at least a round or two of significant shower and thunderstorm development in our area between later tonight and perhaps mid-day Tuesday.  The latest data would point to Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning as the best time frame for that rainfall to occur.  If and when we do get a hefty thunderstorm, our temps will likely plummet to their lowest of the autumn season so far.

A stabilizing atmosphere is expected by Tuesday night, with the next stretch of calm and quiet weather expected to last through Friday.  But then, there will be another series of upper-level disturbances dropping in from the northwest to bring increasing chances of rain showers by late Saturday into Sunday.  And beyond.

Don't forget to check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, which is updated and available on a tab at the top of the home page.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

decent weekend continues... (pm.17.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 69.2F (20.7C)
Rainfall: none

It's mostly clear late this evening.  We've had a good Saturday all around, with pretty much unlimited sunshine this morning giving way to slow cloud develpment over the mountains by the early afternoon.  There was a couple of hours period of mostly cloudy skies during the latter part of the afternoon, but those clouds disappeared quickly before sunset.  Temperatures have been seasonably comfortable, as humidity hovers around 55%.

The next weather event on the horizon is an upper-level disturbance and circulation center which will be approaching from the west-northwest by Sunday night.  Models are forecasting a variety of solutions, with some just delivering a glancing blow of a quick period or two of mainly light showers, and another scenario in which we could get hammered pretty hard with some heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Monday.  At any rate, I think it's best to be braced for precipitation potential between very late Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon... though it won't rain that entire time.

A return to nice and quiet and calm conditions is expected by Tuesday night -- remaining with us through the week.  Temps will cool down further, but still nothing at all out of the ordinary for this stage of October.

Friday, October 16, 2015

close to the norm... (pm.16.oct.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.2F (14.0C)
High temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy with a thin sliver of a cresent moon visible at dusk this evening.  We had a lot of sunshine this morning, but there was a more pronounced build-up of clouds by the noon hour today than we saw yesterday, which led to mostly cloudy skies for a couple of hours during the afternoon.  Our temps have finally settled close to where they should be for the season.

A minor ridge of high pressure is in control across north India, and should keep things relatively calm and quiet over the weekend.  Of course we'll still have to deal with afternoon mountain cloud development issues, but that's about the extent of the drama.  By Sunday night, our eyes turn to the west, as an upper-level circulation approaches.  There's not going to be a super great amount of moisture for this system to work with, but a couple of the computer models are showing some fairly significant shower and thundershower development between very late Sunday night and Tuesday.  Monday would be the peak time to get measurable rainfall around here.

A clearing and stabilizing trend should kick in by Tuesday evening, setting us up for a quiet and seasonably cool stretch for the latter half of next week.  We'll likely be dealing with the coolest temps of this autumn season by Wednesday and Thursday.

THE 7-DAY OULOOK on a tab at the top of this page has the forecast details.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

some nice days... (pm.15.oct.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 67.8F (19.9C)
Rainfall: none

The last of this afternoon's mountain clouds are dissipating now, leaving us with mostly clear skies as darkness settles in.  It's been a very nice mid-October day, with nearly full sunshine this morning, followed by that moderate build-up of cumulus clouds along the Dhauladhars during the PM hours.  Our temperatures rebounded, as expected.

Apart from the risk of some kind of very isolated afternoon shower/thunder development somewhere along the mountain slopes, the next three days are looking very good.  We should have a predominance of sunshine, along with temps in a very pleasant range for this time of year.  There is enough latent moisture in the air to fuel PM cloud development -- but we deal with that under most circumstances here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhar range.

A bit of a circulation/disturbance in the upper-atmosphere will approach from the west-northwest by Sunday evening, accompanied by some significant cooling in the upper-levels as well.  This will set the stage for our next risk of some shower and thundershower development, with the best chance coming on Monday into Tuesday.  Extended range data has been flipping and flopping all over the place as far as the last ten days of the month are concerned... so we'll have to stay alert.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other local weather info on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

autumn drought breaks... (pm.14.oct.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
High temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
Rainfall: 0.80" (2.0cm)

There's a fresh dose of frozen precipitation visible on the Dhauladhars this evening, with just a few lingering clouds as the sky goes dark.  You can see from the stats table above that we had a pretty decent amount of rain today, thanks to that very turbulent period of thunderstorms that swept through here during the mid-day.  It was almost pitch dark just before noon, with the bulk of the rain falling between roughly noon and 2:00pm.  There was also a brief period of small hail, and an extended period of very strong and gusty winds which brought in some chilly air.  The low temp for the day (50.5ºF/10.3ºC) occurred during the height of the rain and wind between 1:00 and 1:30pm.

A west-northwesterly flow aloft converged with advancing moisture from the south and southeast today to produce a widespread area of rain showers and thunder from northern Pakistan and Kashmir into Himachal Pradesh.  For us, it was the first measurable rainfall since the 25th of September -- finally giving us something to put in the books for the month of October.  It was also the coolest blast of air we've experienced this fall season.  It looks like there could still be some scattered thundershower development in the area tomorrow (Thu), but then things should settle down again over the weekend as moisture retreats a bit and our atmosphere attempts to stabilize.  Temperatures should also rebound.

A new upper-level disturbance will slide in from the west-northwest early next week, which will bring us the next chance of a round or two of showers/thunder.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other local weather info.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

gloomy enough... (pm.13.oct.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
High temp: 65.4F (18.6C)
Rainfall: trace

The haze is very thick out there just after sunset this evening, though there are only a few patches of genuine cloudiness hovering around.  It's been a gloomy day, that's for sure, with only a few fleeting glimpses of sunshine during the morning, which never posed much of a challenge to the predominant clouds and haze.  Once again, the rain drops were few and far between, even though it looked like it could dump at any moment.  As far as I saw, the sprinkles of rain were mainly confined to about a 15-30 minute period either side of 5:00pm.  Temperatures today were the coolest of the month, but not as cool as we experienced a few days during the latter half of September.

The upper-level pattern is pretty flat and lifeless, but we've had an influx of low-level moisture coming in from the south and southeast the last couple of days which is piling up along the front slopes of the north Indian Himalayan ranges.  There have been some isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers from central Nepal northwestward through Uttarakhand and Himachal -- but so far, there's been nothing of consequence affecting us here in our immediate neighborhood.  All of the model data continues to show at least a 50/50 chance of scattered shower/thunder action between now and Thursday, with the best chance tomorrow and tomorrow night.  I've still not recorded measurable rain this October, so it wouldn't hurt us at all to pick up a healthy shower to settle the dust and pollen in the air.

Rain chances appear to diminish on Friday and Saturday, with another mentionable chance of some showers Sunday afternoon through Monday or Tuesday.  We're still not talking about a major storm system -- and we're also still not talking about a significant long-term drop in temperatures.

You can find lots of other local weather info on tabs at the top of the home page.  And of course there are thousands of archived posts spanning the last five and a half years available on the right column of this page as well.

Monday, October 12, 2015

not as bright... (pm.12.oct.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
High temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
Rainfall: trace

It's hazy and mostly cloudy this evening, at the end of a day that was considerably less sunny than most days this month have been.  We did start off with hazy sunshine early this morning, but clouds were already trying to develop along the mountain slopes by 9:00am, and after the noon hour, there were barely any bright moments at all.  We've also had a couple of brief periods of sprinkles this afternoon and evening, though the rain has not been enough to register a measurement.

If you've been paying attention the last several days, you know that we've been anticipating an increase in the moisture content of our air mass which should be leading to a better chance of some scattered rain shower action around our area during this week.  The evidence of a more moisture-laden air mass was quite obvious today, but the rainfall itself has still been much less than impressive.  I'll be surprised if we get anything all that significant out of this, but there is a decent chance of some light amounts of rain, mainly between tommorow (Tue) and Thursday.  Hopefully we'll still see some sun thrown into the mix as well.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with the limited sunshine, but there's still no sign of a definitive push of truly fall-like air as we move into the latter half of October.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

slightly better shower risk... (pm.11.oct.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 72.8F (22.7C)
Rainfall: none

Most of our afternoon clouds have dissipated, but it is still quite hazy this evening.  Sunshine was again the dominant feature throughout the morning into the early afternoon, with temperatures continuing to run a bit warmer than normal for this stage of October.

October is normally one of the most uneventful months of the year around here, but this particular October has been even more uneventful than usual.  There's nothing at all noteworthy or dramatic about the overall weather pattern, with very weak upper-level features combined with benign mid- and lower-level features keeping things quiet.  The exception is the daily build-up of clouds in favorable areas along the front slopes of the mountains -- and even a random shower here or there during the afternoon hours.  We've only had one of those "showers" this month here in the immediate McLeod area, and it only served to form a few splatters in the dust and pollen which have accumulated since the monsoon finally departed for good a couple of weeks ago.

All the models continue to show a better chance of some mainly afternoon showers (and maybe thunder) popping up on a scattered basis during this new week, as a batch of moisture attempts to push in from the south.  Rainfall amounts, if any, should be quite light, but don't be surprised if we see something measurable over the course of the coming several days.  Otherwise, there should be more of this mix of sunshine and clouds, along with unseasonably mild temps.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, along with other info for our local area.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

rainless month so far... (pm.10.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: none

We've made it through the first one-third of October without measurable rainfall.  In fact -- it's now been fifteen days since there's been anything in the rain gauge to register a measurement, though we did have a few sprinkles on Thursday afternoon.  Full sunshine this morning did give way to cloud development during the late morning, as expected, but those clouds were not as pervasive as we've seen during the afternoon hours the last couple of days.  All in all it has been a really nice Saturday.

In addition to the total lack of rainfall so far this month, we're also continuing to see temperatures which are a few degrees warmer than we would expect this time of the year.  The upper-level pattern is responsible, with the main branch of the jet stream remaining way way north of us, keeping a general bubble of high pressure aloft sprawled all across the western Himalayan region.  Even the extended-range computer models are not showing any kind of dramatic surge of much cooler autumn-like air during the next ten day or so.

However, there is some more significant moisture gathering and lurking to our south, and it looks like we may stand a better chance of getting some isolated/scattered rain shower activity as we progress through the coming week.  We're not talking at all about a significant storm system, but I have a feeling there will finally be some measurable rainfall amounts going into the books before next weekend rolls around.

Lots of other info can be found on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

sun/cloud struggles... (pm.08.oct.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 73.9F (23.3C)
Rainfall: trace

Strangely enough, we're socked in with clouds and fog just after sunset this evening, at the end of a rather bizarre day.  Sunshine dominated until just after noon, as it has almost every day during the past couple of weeks -- but then there was rapid cloud development over and along the mountains which led to some light sprinkles of rain and even a few rumbles of thunder between about 2:15 and 3:00pm.  We had a mix of clouds and sun thereafter, but then this thick cloud/fog development has set in this evening.  Humidity has been highly variable between 40% and 90%.

There are some subtle realignments of the upper-level pattern going on right now, and apparently those changes aren't setting well here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  I think this cloudiness/fog will dissipate later this evening, but we'll have to watch for the potential for another round of this during the afternoon/evening hours over the next two or three days.  If there is more isolated/random shower development, it should be very light and brief.

Computer models are still showing a period of unstable and potentially showery weather off and on next week, with less sunshine than we've been soaking up recently.  Temperatures should continue to run a bit above normal for the season...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) has the details.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

calm-quiet-dry-pleasant... (pm.07.oct.15)

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 60.1F (15.6C)
High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Rainfall: none

As the sky goes dark, it's mostly clear -- though there are a couple of lingering clouds along the mountains, and also some haze in the air.  It's been another in a long string of beautiful days, with unlimited sunshine until the early afternoon, and then gradual cloud development in the vicinity of the Dhauladhars.  Today those clouds were more widespread for a couple of hours during the late afternoon, but we've had rapid clearing this evening.  Temperatures remain very comfortable for the season.

The rain ended very dramatically about 12 days ago, which is not always the way it goes during the monsoon-to-autumn transition.  But it is worth remembering that the average rainfall for the month of October is 2.60" (6.6cm), so although we've had a long dry streak, a significant bout or two of rain is not out of the question before the month comes to an end.  In the near term, our pattern should remain calm and quiet, but it does look like there could be some moisture creeping in from the south by early next week, which could set us up for an unstable period for several days.

I'm not sure I remember such mild temperatures persisting consistently into the second week of October, but it doesn't look like a significant cool-down is on the horizon just yet.  Autumn bliss -- for sure.

Get a look at tabs at the top of the page if you are interested in more detailed weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Monday, October 5, 2015

the magnificence... (pm.05.oct.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 74.3F (23.5C)
Rainfall:  none

In line with the recent routine, there are just a few cloud traces along the mountains during the half hour after sunset this evening.  We had a sunny morning, followed by a partly cloudy afternoon -- with perhaps an isoated shower in the middle of the afternoon up along the Dhauladhars.  Humidity at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center averaged around 40% today... AND, we have now had ten days in a row without measurable rainfall.  Imagine that.

The month of October so far has been nothing short of superb, with lots of sunshine, no rain, comfortable humidity levels, and temperatures running significantly warmer than normal.  In fact, we've been consistently 2ºC/3-4ºF above normal for both high and low temps since about the 29th of September.  The upper-level pattern continues to look much like it did a month ago, though the tropical moisture has been swept away.  Good combination for us.

There are no significant changes on the horizon as we head through this week and coming weekend, and that means we should continue to enjoy lots of sunshine on a daily basis, generally low humidity, and pleasantly warm temperatures.  It feels much more like a repeat of early summer as opposed to the early stages of autumn.

Lots more information is available on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Sunday, October 4, 2015

all-around comfort... (pm.04.oct.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 74.1F (23.4C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few lingering clouds in the vicinity of the mountains shortly after sunset this evening.  We've had a fantastic day, with full sunshine this morning yielding to a considerable amount of cumulus cloud development in the immediate vicinity of the Dhauladhars during the afternoon.  There was even some isolated shower/thunder activity to our north and northeast, but none of that affected us at all here in McLeod.  Humidity was actually back down into the 40-50% range today.

Some weak upper-level circulations have been rippling across north India since late yesterday, accompanied by a few little pockets of cooler air aloft.  That's been responsible for some isolated shower/thundershower action just barely north of us -- from western Kashmir into northcentral Himachal Pradesh -- but with a relatively dry air mass, it seems that rainfall amounts have been very light.

The week ahead is looking very quiet for us, with a generally light west-northwesterly flow aloft, and very little moisture in the air mass across most of north India.  Actually, it's just about what we might expect this time of year, apart from the fact that our temperatures will continue to run a couple of degrees (ºC) above normal for early October.  Extended range computer models (at least as of right now) don't show very much of consequence all the way through the 17th-18th of the month.

Take a look at the tabs at the top of the home page for more info, including details of THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

crowd-friendly weather... (pm.03.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Rainfall: none

Today marks one full week without a drop of rain.  The season has indeed changed.  We've got a few clouds lingering along the mountain slopes at dusk this evening, otherwise it's mostly clear but rather hazy.  Our morning was fully sunny once again, but we did have a fairly impressive amount of cloud development here along the Dhauladhars during the afternoon which limited the sunshine off and on for a few hours.  Humidity was a bit higher today that it was several days this past week -- averaging close to 55%.

This place is still absolutely choked with tourists.  Tons of traffic.  Crowds everywhere.  And the weather remains extremely crowd-friendly, with our predominance of sunshine and very comfortable temperatures.  The last few days I've been talking about a disturbance/circulation center in the upper atmosphere which is dropping in from the northwest.  This feature is accompanied by some cooler air aloft, and that's been enough to trigger some isolated thundershowers across Kashmir this afternoon.  We may be in line for some of that action as well tomorrow (Sun), as this upper-level feature swings across the area.  Otherwise we'll continue the trend of sun mixed with occasional clouds, along with seasonably comfortable temps.

Our atmosphere should stabilize once again on Monday, and remain generally quiet and calm throughout most of next week.  Check out forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.  Also, a full recap/wrap of this year's recently ended monsoon can be found on MONSOON 2015: RAINFALL TALLY, also on a tab above.

Friday, October 2, 2015

our busy weekend... (pm.02.oct.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 74.1F (23.4C)
Rainfall: none

Lingering evening clouds along the mountains have just now dissipated, leaving us with clear skies shortly after sunset.  Full sunshine this morning into the early afternoon gave way to some mountain cloud development again -- though it wasn't very impressive until after 4:00pm.  At that time, we suddenly had a rapid increase in low cloudiness and a bit of fog, but it didn't last more than an hour or so.  Humidity was just 30% this morning, but jumped up to 65% during the late afternoon with that cloud development.

The India vs South Africa cricket match at the HPCA stadium in Dharamsala will be starting shortly, with many millions of national and international TV viewers tuned in.  Our weather has cooperated very nicely with the huge influx of tourists this weekend for the match, and for the Gandhi Jayanti national holiday.

There is a weak upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest, however, which could bring us a wrinkle or two in the forecast scenario, especially on Sunday.  A pool of cooler air aloft and a bit of rotation in the upper atmosphere will try desperately to tap into what little moisture is available to give us perhaps a greater percentage of cloudiness tomorrow (Sat) afternoon into Sunday, along with at least a slight chance of some isolated shower/thunder action.  At this moment it doesn't look like a very big deal, but of course we'll keep an eye out.

Pleasant and generally dry October weather is expected for most of next week...

Check out tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

october beauty... (pm.01.oct.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 75.3F (24.1C)
Rainfall: none

The sun has recently set, and we have totally clear skies across the area again this evening.  Today has been the fifth day in a row without a drop of rain, and a fitting start to the month of October.  Our sunshine was plentify yet again, with only a moderate build-up of cumulus clouds over the immediate Dhauladhar range for a few hours during the mid- to late afternoon hours.  I recorded a humidity reading as low as 27% during the morning -- as temperatures continue to run a bit above average/normal.

We are going into a very busy holiday weekend here in the Dharamsala/McLeod Ganj area.  Of course tomorrow (Fri) is Gandhi Jayanti, a.k.a. the celebration of Gandhi's birthday.  Also, we've got an international cricket match scheduled for Friday evening at 7:00pm at the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium in Dharamsala, with India taking on South Africa in a T20 match.  Literally tens of millions of eyes will be on our little corner of the world during that nationally and internationally televised match tomorrow evening.

The way things stand, it seems that there will be a lot to show off to all those millions of TV viewers, as our weather is expected to remain seasonably beautiful.  We should continue to see lots of sunshine, with just a few hours of mountain cloud development during the afternoon hours that should quickly dissipate as the sun goes down.  Humidity will remain low, as temperatures stay in the comfort zone.  There are no major changes foreseen during the next week or so...

Check tabs above for other info, including forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.