the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Thursday, December 22, 2016

cooler temps on the way... (pm.22.dec.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 63.8F (17.7C)
Rainfall: none

It's been another extremely mild day for what is now officially the winter season -- with both low and high temps more than 10ºF/6ºC above normal.  But -- the high temp for the day occurred quite early, as the first traces of cooler air start to trickle in from the north.   Humidity was again close to the lowest it ever gets around here, in the range of 12-18% throughout the day.  Now, at dusk, we have quite a bit of haze and just a few streaks of high clouds.

This recent spell of unseasonably warm weather is on its way out, as an upper-level disturbance and accompanying pocket of colder air start to slide in from central Asia.  This system is moisture-starved, of course, but as it quickly pivots across the area between late tomorrow (Fri) and early Monday morning, it will cause our temps to drop significantly, and will also bring us a bit more in the way of occasional/variable mid- and high cloudiness.  Any light showers of rain and/or snow will most likely be confined to the highest elevations well to our north and northeast.

Christmas Day could be one of the coolest of the season thus far, but it looks like temps will be on the upswing again toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with another slight downward dip during the final few days of the month and the year.

Get a look at lots more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

where is winter?... (pm.21.dec.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
High temp: 65.4F (18.6C)
Rainfall: none

There are some high clouds visible on the south-southwestern horizon at dusk, otherwise we have clear skies.  The day has been mostly sunny, again, with only a bit of haze, and just a few small and fleeting patches of mainly high clouds from time to time.  The big issue of the day has been the WARMTH.  Although the winter solstice occurred at 4:14pm, my high temp today was the warmest I've recorded since the 9th of November, and just about 14ºF/7-8ºC above normal for late December.  It's really phenomenal.  And humidity was as low as it's been this entire fall/early winter season, staying below 20% all day long.

This mild and bone dry weather has been very comfortable, considering what could be happening this time of year, but we're starting to get into dire straights in terms of the total lack of moisture, and more frighteningly, the scant chances of precipitation in the upcoming days and weeks.  Twice a day I scan the data and charts, hoping something will change, but it's still looking like no significant moisture surges and no significant storm systems are set to develop or move across Himalayan north India during the next couple of weeks.

There will be the odd/rogue upper-level disturbance zipping by from time to time, bringing waves of mainly high clouds.  Also, it does look like our temperatures will dip fairly significantly as early as Friday, but more likely over the weekend -- but then milder air will flow back in during next week.  Winter is now officially here, Christmas is days away, but the weather is more like late October or early November...

Forecast details are on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

no winter for winter solstice... (pm.20.dec.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.4F (11.9C)
High temp: 61.1F (16.2C)
Rainfall: none

Temperatures today, both pre-dawn low and afternoon high, were about normal for the 5th of November -- that's an indication of how far above seasonal averages we are.  Sunshine was abundant and unhindered all day long, with humidity ranging from just 15 to 30%.  Late this evening our skies remain clear, except for a bit of light haze.

We are on a trajectory to finish the month of December without measurable precipitation.  Models continue to show nothing other than perhaps some very high elevation snow showers during the next couple of weeks or more, so the way things stand, we could begin 2017 the same way we're ending 2016 --- dry dry dry.

There are indications of a fairly significant dip in temps over this coming Christmas weekend, but we'll probably still remain on the high side of normal for this time of year.  Expect more rounds of high clouds from time to time over the coming several days as well, though we should see plenty of hours of sunshine in between.

THE WINTER SOLSTICE occurs tomorrow (Wed) at 4:14pm IST -- so we've arrived at the shortest day of the year, even if our temperatures aren't feeling very winter-like.

Monday, December 19, 2016

no excitement whatsoever... (pm.19.dec.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 52.1F (11.2C)
High temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

There are only a few minor streaks and patches of high clouds out there this evening after darkness has settled in, and it's very mild.  Today's sunshine was again punctuated by a few periods of patchy high cloudiness, but it seems there was a greater percentage of sun than we saw yesterday.  Humidity has been super low -- ranging from 15 to 29%.  And temperatures?  Well, it was the warmest day in just over a week.

I've been digging very deep to try to find something to talk about lately.  This dry streak has gone beyond the believable, since we've had no measurable rainfall since the 11th of October... and although there have been some relatively brief periods of cooler weather, we continue to average quite a bit warmer than normal for the season.

Our moisture source has been pretty much cut off for 2+ months, and the truly cold continental winter air mass has remained well to our north, with no signs of it dropping very far southward as we finish off 2016.  That means all we have to deal with are fairly minor temperature fluctuations, along with alternating sky conditions between sunshine and periods of mainly high cloudiness.  I think you've heard it all before...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above has forecast details all the way through Christmas.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

boredom... (pm.18.dec.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.2F (9.0C)
High temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
Rainfall: none
Humidity: 16-39%

Rainfall for November:  0.00" 
Normal rainfall for November: 0.70" (1.7cm)

Rainfall for December thus far: trace
Normal rainfall for December: 2.10" (5.3cm)

Expected rainfall during the next week: none

Temperatures during the next week: averaging slightly above normal

Sky condition during the next week: variable periods of clouds and sun

Saturday, December 17, 2016

just fine for mid-december... (pm.17.dec.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 51.0F (10.6C)
High temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
Rainfall: none

A perfectly clear evening is in progress, after a perfectly sunny day.  We've had some sharp alternations and fluctuations between clear and cloudy skies the last few days, but during the daylight hours on this Saturday we lucked out and ended up with pretty much 100% sunshine.  My high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest in nearly a week, while humidity ranged from a very low 16% early this morning, to about 40% late this afternoon.

It's really hard to nail down the timing on the pulses/waves of high cloudiness developing and moving rapidly along this current fast-moving jet-stream flow -- but there will be more on the way, on and off and on, during the coming several days.  All the way into next weekend, the overall pattern is expected to change very little, with temperatures not shifting very dramatically, and the brisk west-to-east upper-level flow remaining in place.  It looks like we could warm up a degree or two more by Wednesday, which will keep us on the plus-side of average for this stage of December.

Extended range models are still not looking very promising for any significant rain or snowfall in our general area all the way through the end of 2016...

Check tabs above and archives along the right column of the page for more data and info.

Friday, December 16, 2016

sun/cloud fluctuations... (pm.16.dec.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
High temp: 56.7 (13.7C)
Rainfall: none

Extensive patches of high clouds remain overhead late this evening, here at the end of day with lots of back and forth between periods of sun and high cloudiness.  We did experience a bit of a warm-up, with the high temp today the mildest I've recorded since Sunday.  Humidity ranged from a very low 15% early this morning, to around 43% during the late afternoon.

Well.... our four-day stretch of temps close to normal for this time of year has already come to an end, as we climbed back above normal today.  There may not be a lot of warming during the next several days, but it's still looking like we could moderate another couple of degrees by the middle of next week, keeping us on the mild side of mid-December averages.  A roaring jet stream flow across Himalayan north India will keep the occasional waves of high clouds coming and going, all the way into at least the middle of next week.

There have been the usual fluctuations and inconsistencies in the extended range computer model data taking us all the way through Christmas to the final days of 2016 -- but as of now there are still no strong signs of a significant storm system in our near future.  Of course we'll keep watching to see if anything might change.

Lots of other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, can be found on tabs above.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

epic dry streak continues... (pm.15.dec.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 46.2F (7.9C)
High temp: 53.5F (11.9C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few patches of lingering high cloudiness out there late this evening, but we certainly saw plenty of those clouds coming in waves throughout the day.  We had glimpses of sun and periods of dim/filtered sunshine most of the day as well, but it's fair to say that the clouds dominated.  For that reason, our temperatures didn't bounce back like we were expecting, and my high temp in the upper part of town was actually slightly cooler than it's been the last few days.  Humidity ranged widely, from near 25% this morning to just above 50% during the mid-afternoon.

For those who are counting, or at least care to keep track, today was the 65th day in a row without measurable precipitation around here.  This autumn and early winter season has been a very calm and quiet one, with no significant storm systems affecting the western and central Himalayan region.  Yes, there have been a few disturbances of varying degrees of intensity, but moisture has been severely lacking, and what is normally the driest period of the year anyway (mid-October to early December) has turned out to be absolutely bone dry.

We can expect more waves of high cloudiness to drift overhead, carried along on a brisk jet stream flow, but the chance of anything close to significant precipitation remains very small -- perhaps all the way through the rest of the month.  It still looks like we'll see a gradual rise in temps over the course of the coming several days that will lift us back above normal for this time of year.

As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on a tab above...

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

seasonably chilly... (pm.14.dec.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.0F (7.8C)
High temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's absolutely clear late this evening, as we await the full moon which will be appearing over the Dhauladhars very shortly.  There were only the faintest and feeblest clouds over the mountain peaks late this afternoon, otherwise we've had a day of full sunshine, with humidity running in the 38-48% range.  Today's temps (both hi and lo) were the coolest I've recorded this season so far, and not far at all off the mark for mid-December averages.

There's no precipitation on the horizon for us, but there may be some clouds on the way.  A very brisk flow at the jet stream level will settle across northern India during the coming few days, running along the north side of a strong high pressure ridge developing across central and southern parts of the subcontinent.  It's probable that we'll see some waves of high clouds as early as tomorrow, but more likely off-and-on through the weekend into early next week.

Temperatures will be gradually on the rise between tomorrow and Monday, taking us back above normal for this time of year -- but -- if we do end up with some extended periods of high cloudiness during the daylight hours, that's going to restrict that rise in temps.  Weather excitement is certainly lacking these days...

Check the current forecast on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

the season's lowest temps... (pm.13.dec.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.4F (8.0C)
High temp: 54.6F (12.6C)
Rainfall: none

We have clear skies tonight as a big, bright, nearly-full moon rises over the mountains in the east.  There was quite a lot of patchy, flat cumulus cloud development this afternoon, but the sunshine was pretty much unrestricted in spite of that.  My early morning low temp was the coolest of the season by a full 2ºC (3.6ºF), and the high was the coolest I've recorded as well... just slightly below yesterday's high temp.  Believe it or not, we're still running on the plus-side of normal for mid-December, but at least it is feeling a little more like it should for this time of year.  Humidity has been running in the 40-50% range.

There's not much at all to watch during the coming several days or more, with no storm systems of any kind threatening to develop from central Asia into the western and central Himalayas.  This colder air mass we are currently dealing with will gradually be moderating toward the end of the week, and possibly into early next week as well, as a new ridge of high pressure aloft builds across central and northern India.  That means yet another temperature inversion will develop -- with colder air trapped at the surface by increasingly milder air aloft.  Of course that will lead to the next round of fog and haze and smog for the plains to our south.

Our temps are bottoming out now, and maybe for the next 24 hours or so, before they start to creep slowly upward again.  There could be some periods of high clouds on the way by the end of the week, but that should be about it.

Forecast specifics are located on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Monday, December 12, 2016

closer to normal... (pm.12.dec.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.0F (10.0C)
High temp: 54.9F (12.7C)
Rainfall: none

My high temperature in the upper part of town was the coolest I've recorded since the 19th of March... nearly nine months ago.  It's about time.  We've been running significantly above normal in the temp department (both highs and lows) since the middle of October, with only a few brief exceptions.  There was rapid development of mid-level cloudiness right around sunrise this morning, and those clouds hung with us until just after noon, when we were finally able to get two or three hours of decent sunshine.  Humidity was fairly steady between 42 and 55% throughout the day.

The coldest pocket of air of this early winter season in the higher levels of the atmosphere is gradually swallowing all of the western Himalayan region.  There's also some lingering dynamic energy and a low pressure circulation aloft, hanging back over northwestern Afghanistan.  This is providing us with an unstable atmosphere, and even producing some light snow showers in the higher mountain areas to our north.  It looks like our temps will continue to cool off a few more degrees during the next 48-60 hours or so, taking us down closer to the normal range for the middle of December.  Although our skies have looked a bit threatening at times due to the clouds, precipitation chances remain very small.

A trend toward milder weather is again showing up for the latter part of the week and even into at least early next week -- so we're still not having to deal with anything all that uncomfortable or dramatic for this time of the year.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page contains the forecast details for McLeod Ganj.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

air quality improvement... (pm.11.dec.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Rainfall: none

The air is clear and crisp after sunset this evening, with unhindered views downhill toward the airport, and northeastward to the Dhauladhar range.  Nice to get the haze kicked out of here, at least temporarily.  We had a fairly impressive build-up of cumulus clouds along the mountains today, but it was mostly sunny otherwise.  There were also some isolated snow/sleet showers in higher up-mountain locations this afternoon, but here in McLeod, our precipitation was restricted to just a few brief sprinkles of rain last evening around this time.  But at least that officially ends our 60 day streak without a drop of rain!  Still, it was far from enough to measure, so our period without measurable rain is now extended to 61 days.

Much colder air has arrived in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, but we haven't really experienced much cooling here at our elevation yet.  The temperature trend will be downward over the course of the coming three days or so, and we'll likely experience the coolest temps of the season, though just barely.  And even then, as I've said a few times, we'll only be getting ourselves down to about normal/average for mid-December.  This early winter season thus far has just been incredibly mild.

Some slight warming is expected for the end of the week -- and still -- the extended range weather charts and data are absolutely devoid of anything resembling a significant storm system for north India...

Check tabs above for lots of other info.

Saturday, December 10, 2016

downward trend in temps... (pm.10.dec.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 52.7F (11.5C)
High temp: 60.7F (15.9C)
Rainfall: trace

If you were watching the west-southwestern sky late this afternoon and evening, you saw the rapid increase in mid- and high level cloudiness coming our way -- and now it is mostly cloudy with just a few small breaks in the overcast, about an hour after sunset.  It was mostly sunny during the daylight hours, however, with some patchy clouds this morning and haze which lasted until the early afternoon.  Temperatures were slightly cooler than we've seen the last few days, with humidity very low -- in the range of 16 to 28%.

In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, temperatures are plunging, and that has radically reversed the temperature inversion that has trapped smog and haze and dust and other unsavory pollutants in the lower levels of the atmosphere for the past several days.  Visibility by mid-afternoon markedly increased here at our elevation, and down into the valley as well.  With a good batch of dynamic energy passing overhead tonight into early Sunday, combined with that colder air aloft, we could be getting some significant shower and even thunderstorm action -- except for the fact that our atmosphere is extremely dry.  There is a little bit of mid-level moisture which has been tapped from the Arabian Sea, but it's probably not enough to fuel anything more than the most isolated/random light rain showers across our area during the next 12-15 hours or so.  It would be nice to wake up Sunday morning to a coating of snow along the Dhauladhars, but that may be a tall order.

Cooler air is already starting to flow in from the northwest, and it's still looking like we'll see the lowest temps of this very mild autumn/early winter season between Sunday night and Wednesday or Thursday.  But then another rebound back into a milder zone will occur late in the week.

Follow THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK if you're interested in daily forecast details... located on a tab above.

Friday, December 9, 2016

shower risk only slight... (pm.09.dec.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 61.9F (16.6C)
Rainfall: none

There's a little bit of haze hanging in the air late this evening, otherwise we have clear skies.  And we can mark this one down as another mostly sunny and unseasonably mild early December day, with our recent dry streak extending itself to 59 days.  Humidity was lower -- ranging from about 18% during mid-morning, to near 30% during the late afternoon.

With each and every run of the computer model data the last few days, the 'storm system' we've been looking forward to during the latter part of the weekend into early next week continues to look less impressive.  And now, it is barely looking like anything at all.  There is still a lot of cooling which is going to occur aloft, and eventually down into the lower levels, but the upper-level dynamic ingredient seems to be fizzling, and the small tug of moisture from the Arabian Sea seems to be getting shunted mainly to our south and east.  All that to say -- as of now, things just don't seem to be coming together for anything more than about a 20-30% chance of some isolated showers between Saturday night and Sunday mid-day, and again a slight chance of a shower on Tuesday.  I am disappointed, truly.

We're still probably going to see the coolest temperatures of the season by Sunday night into the middle of next week, but even then, we're so far above normal right now that the cooling we get will just barely get us down to mid-December averages.

Forecast specs can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

attempting some changes... (pm.08.dec.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 53.9F (12.2C)
High temp: 60.9F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

Mostly clear, but hazy -- that is the story AGAIN late this evening after the sky has gone from dusk to total darkness.  We've had another day of almost full sunshine, apart from the haze and microscopic high clouds here and there.  Temperatures have declined very slightly since Tuesday, but remain well above normal for this time of year.  Humidity today was in the range of 24 to 46%.

The big ridge of high pressure aloft which has been the dominant weather feature across the northern half of India the past several days is in the process of breaking down.  That means that the very strong temperature inversion that has trapped lots of dust and smog and other pollutants in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will also be torn apart.  Much colder air in the upper levels is already starting to arrive, as a low pressure system organizes over Iran.  This system will move rather quickly into northern Pakistan by Sunday morning, bringing a batch of colder air with it, and also tugging some moisture northeastward from the Arabian Sea as it approaches.  The latest model data is showing the potential for a quick period of precipitation between Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, with drier air quickly sweeping in and chasing away the moisture thereafter.  That means our risk of showers for Monday and Tuesday has been almost totally wiped out.

It's been dry for so long, that this is actually something exciting to watch, when really, it is not much of a storm system at all.  If we do get some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, they will likely be light, but much colder air up along the Dhauladhars could assist the first noticeable dose of snowfall up there.

Forecast details are updated both morning and evening on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

dry streak: 57 days... (pm.07.dec.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
High temp: 61.4F (16.3C)
Rainfall: none

The usual haze is in the air this evening, otherwise we have clear skies and mild temps.  These temperatures lately continue to run well above normal for the first part of December, and our dry streak has now extended itself to 57 days.  I am pretty sure there has never been a 60 day stretch of totally dry weather here in my years of monitoring and recording weather conditions, so this one is really something spectacular.  Sunshine was plentiful again, despite the haze and a few high clouds, with humidity ranging from 23 to 47%.

The upper-level pattern is just now moving into a period of transformation, which could bring us a bit more interesting weather to watch by the weekend.  The huge high pressure ridge which has been in place for many days is already in the first hours of breaking down, which will allow a stronger southwesterly jet stream flow to sink into northwest India.  Temperatures aloft will start cooling significantly between tomorrow (Thu) and Monday/Tuesday, while a little tongue of moisture from the Arabian Sea gets pulled northeastward.  Although a major storm system is not on the cards, as of now, it does look like there will be the best chance of some scattered rain and snow showers across much of Himachal Pradesh than we've seen this entire season -- mainly during the Sunday-Tuesday period.  Any snow should be restricted to elevations above about 2900m (9500ft) -- close to Triund -- so let's watch and see.

The coolest temps of the season will filter in over the weekend into early next week as well, which could finally bring us a dose of reality, after this incredibly mild November and early December we've had...

Get all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

unseasonably mild for now... (pm.06.dec.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.5F (13.1C)
High temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
Rainfall: none

Today's temps, both high and low, were the mildest in exactly one week.  We're running approximately 6-7ºF/3ºC ABOVE normal for this time of year -- and of course with very few exceptions, we've been milder than the norm for most of this autumn and early winter season.  Sunshine was plentiful today, but it was quite hazy, and we've had just a few isolated patches of high clouds drifting by as well.  Humidity has been in the range of 28 to 48%.

We're still dealing with a strong inversion across most of north India, with shallow cooler air close to the surface, and relatively warmer air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  Air quality has been horrible in the plains to our south, with fog and smog and dust and haze very thick and heavy in many areas... especially across Uttar Pradesh.

A slow change in the overall weather pattern will occur as we move into the latter half of the week, as an upper-level low pressure system develops off to our west-northwest.  Cooler air aloft will gradually spread eastward, but temps at the surface will continue to moderate all the way into Thursday or Friday.  This will set us up for an increasingly unstable situation over the weekend, and if we could get some moisture involved in this evolving pattern, then the risk of rain showers would be on the rise by Saturday night into Sunday.  But that is the big question -- will there be much in the way of moisture availability as upper-level dynamic energy moves across north India between Sunday and Tuesday..???  Right now the models are suggesting that the answer is 'NO'.

At any rate, there is a better chance of some random shower action during that time frame, as temps dip...

Get forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Monday, December 5, 2016

temps to keep rising... (pm.05.dec.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C)
High temp: 60.5F (15.8C)
Rainfall: none

As December evenings go, this one is very easy to take.  We have mostly clear skies, despite the lingering light haze, and temperatures are quite mild for the season.  Sunshine was plentiful all throughout the day, with only a few very minor, fleeting patches of high clouds, and the usual seasonal haze that built up during the afternoon and early evening hours.  The high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the warmest I've recorded since last Tuesday.

There should be a continued absence of drama on the weather scene for most of this week, as the high pressure ridge which has been in place the last several days slowly breaks down... allowing a southwesterly upper-level flow to develop.  That should keep our recent gradual warming trend going, while also providing us with more of this sunshine and occasional high cloud combo.  The first signs of changes will arrive with the weekend.

Models are showing a rather intense upper-level low pressure system developing off to our west-northwest by late Saturday, which will creep eastward between Sunday and Tuesday.  The energy/dynamics of this system are looking impressive, but it's the moisture that is lacking.  The very latest data shows an outbreak of precipitation across the western Himalayas on Saturday, which could translate into parts of Himachal Pradesh sometime Sunday.  The risk of rain showers (with snow higher up) will last into early Tuesday, as the season's coolest air mass filters in.  Check back for updates all this week.

You'll find lots of other info on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

remaining stable and quiet... (pm.04.dec.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's quite hazy again this evening, as it has been since the mid-afternoon, but the situation is worse downhill from us.  Otherwise we have clear skies as darkness deepens.  Sunshine was plentiful today, apart from the PM haze and just a few patches of high cloudiness at times.  Temperatures have been pretty much steady the last four days, in the very tight range of 59-60ºF/15-16ºC for highs -- with average daily humidity running close to 40% since late last week.

A massive ridge of high pressure is sprawled from the Arabian peninsula all the way into northern India, creating a strong temperature inversion across much of the northern one-third of the Indian subcontinent.  Cooler air is trapped in the surface layers, with significant warming occurring aloft -- that's what creates the hazy and smoggy conditions in elevations mainly below us, across the plains of north India.  I've been expecting us to see our temperatures climb a bit more here at our elevation, but so far that really hasn't happened.  I still think we're heading into a milder zone for a few days as we progress into this new week.  A few mainly high clouds will flirt with the sunshine at times, otherwise we should continue with this dry and stable weather all the way into the weekend.

But then... computer models are still hinting at a period of instability and a drop in temps on Sunday (11th) into Tuesday (13th).  Tonight's data shows less impressive precipitation development over our area than previous runs were indicating, but all of this is still a week away, and the variables haven't really assembled yet.  Stay tuned.

Saturday, December 3, 2016

definitely tolerable... (pm.03.dec.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 52.8F (11.6C)
High temp: 59.3F (15.2C)
Rainfall: none

There's some lingering light haze in the area, otherwise we have clear skies late this evening, with a crescent moon, Venus, and lots of stars visible.  It has been a really nice early December day, with tons of sunshine punctuated by only a few transient patches of high clouds, and then the period of haze from the mid-afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures have been moderating ever-so-slightly the last couple of days, but still, it was the fourth day in a row I've recorded a high below 60ºF -- the first time that's happened this season.

The weather looks absolutely uneventful for this coming week, with a westerly upper-level flow completely devoid of anything but the most tiny disturbances, and temperatures which will continue to run above normal for this time of year.  There will likely be some periods of high clouds at times, but that's about it.  Warming aloft will eventually translate down to the lower elevations, and that should keep temps rising a bit, at least until Wednesday or Thursday.

For the first time since the last days of the monsoon season way back during the first part of October, the models are showing an outbreak of precipitation across Himalayan north India -- somewhere around the 11th or 12th of the month.  It's too early to say just how significant this might be for us, but at least it is something to watch between now and then...

Keep track of THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, updated twice a day, on a tab up at the top of the page.

Friday, December 2, 2016

milder air coming, again... (pm.02.dec.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: none

It's totally clear this evening, at the end of a sunshine-filled day.  There were only the faintest and feeblest attempts at cloud development along the mountain peaks this afternoon, along with a period of light haze from the mid-afternoon through the early evening hours -- otherwise the December sun was unhindered.  Temperatures are on the cool side, but actually, more in line with mid-November norms.

Significant warming is just now starting to appear in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, and that's going to set the stage for our weather situation over the coming several days.  It may take a little time for milder temps to appear here at our elevation, but it is looking like we'll see a gradual warming trend over the weekend into early next week.  There could be a few waves of high clouds from time to time, otherwise there should still be a good amount of sunshine.

The next surge of cooler air is currently scheduled for the end of next week -- with extended range computer models continuing to hint at the potential for some kind of storm system in our general vicinity by the 11th of the month, which is a week from Sunday.  It has been a long long long long stretch of dry and uneventful weather around here, so I would be more than happy if we could see our first round of winter precipitation.  We'll keep an eye on it...

Forecast details and other info can be found on tabs above.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

coolish december arrival... (pm.01.dec.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 50.7F (10.4C)
High temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
Rainfall: none

Today has been one of the coolest of the season, in spite of the fact that we had a lot of sunshine.  There were just a few scattered clouds, mainly in the vicinity of the mountains during the mid-day hours, but all of those clouds are gone now, with hazy skies and a small sliver of a crescent moon visible in the west this evening.  Humidity has remained on the high side, compared to what we've experienced since mid-October, ranging from 42 to 57% over the course of the day.

It's smooth sailing ahead according to all of the computer model data -- at least for the next ten days or so.  A flat and uneventful upper-level flow will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend and nearly all of next week, keeping us dry and relatively mild for this time of year.  The slightly cooler air we're dealing with right now will start to moderate back into the milder zone as early as Sunday, which is where we spent most of the month of November.  It's just been such a pleasant autumn/early winter season this year.

Tonight's data does show a significant storm system trying to develop across Himalayan north India around the 11th or 12th of the month, but those extended range models have been very inconsistent lately, so we'll need to watch it day-by-day to see if it is anything more than a fluke in the long-term solutions...

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

november: zero rainfall... (pm.30.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Rainfall: none

It's very hazy late this evening, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies, and the highest humidity since the middle of October.  Since around 2:30pm, humidity has bounced above 50%, reaching 56% late this afternoon -- after starting at around 25% early this morning.  We've had a day of constant fluctuations between sunshine and clouds, with the coolest high temp I've recorded in exactly two weeks.

An upper-level disturbance is located over the northwestern corner of Kashmir at the moment, and that's what has stirred up the considerable amount of cloudiness during the past 12 to 18 hours or so.  The feel and smell of moisture is in the air, but it still looks like the risk of any precipitation will remain to our north in the higher elevations overnight.  A slightly cooler air mass is seeping in, as we've been expecting, but even though temperatures will be cooler the next few days, we'll still be running in the above normal range for the beginning of December.

Unless someone witnesses a rogue/random rain drop before midnight, November 2016 will go down in the history books as a TOTALLY DRY MONTH WITH 0.00" OF RAINFALL.  This is something that rarely happens, even during April and November, which are the driest months of the year here in the Dharamsala area, on average.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page for forecast details...

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

minor cooling trend... (pm.29.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.5F (13.1C)
High temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is about 75% overcast this evening as dusk turns to darkness, but those clouds are exclusively of the high and thin variety.  Actually, we had occasional extensive patches of those high clouds all day, with periods of nice sunshine mixed in as well.  This is the third day of a very slow decline in temperatures, though we remain well above where we should be for the end of November.  Humidity was again quite variable -- ranging from 18% early this morning to around 43% during the mid-afternoon.

The latest disturbance in the jet stream flow is just now moving into northwestern Afghanistan, and is expected to move rapidly east-northeastward during the next 36 hours or so.  Once again, occasional waves of high clouds are all we can expect to see from this system, with the risk of some scattered light to moderate showers of rain and snow remaining in the higher mountain areas to our north.  There will be a minor push of cooler air as this system sweeps by, but we've got a long way to go if we want to drop below normal, temp-wise -- so the bit of cooling we get will really be insignificant for the season.

Quiet and dry weather will follow for the weekend, and as it looks, all the way through next week as well.  This dry streak we're experiencing is turning into one of epic proportions, as we will soon cross the mark of 50 rainless days...

As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on a tab at the top of the page.

Monday, November 28, 2016

pleasantly uneventful... (pm.28.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
Rainfall: none

Our late evening sky is totally clear, after a mostly sunny Monday.  There were some patchy high clouds drifting by overhead for two or three hours right in the middle of the day, but the sunshine was definitely the predominant feature.  The high temp was the coolest I've recorded since last Thursday, but we're still running about 7ºF/4ºC above normal for the tail end of November.  There was a rather large variation in humidity levels today -- from 18% this morning, to around 42% during the mid-afternoon.

There's not much to watch in the weather department during the coming several days, and actually, it's been a bit of a stretch to come up with anything at all to be concerned about for the last several weeks.  There is another upper-level disturbance scheduled to sweep across extreme northern India during the mid-week period, but it will do nothing more than increase our high cloudiness potential from late tomorrow through Wednesday night.  Scattered rain and snow showers are being forecast again by the computer models for the highest mountain areas to our north, but the risk of even a drop or two of rain right here in Mcleod will be barely above 10%.

After this little system passes by, temperatures will cool of just a bit.  BUT -- we're still talking about an unseasonably mild air mass as we cross into the new month, with no evidence of a truly substantial plunge in temps on the horizon.

Explore the rest of the blog for lots of other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK which is located on a tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

fantastic for late november... (pm.27.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.2F (14.0C)
High temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
Rainfall: none

For the first time in just over one week, we have mostly clear skies during this hour after sunset -- at the end of a day which featured more sunshine, also, than we've seen in over a week.  Temperatures remain very mild for late November, with both the high and low temps for the day not far from the warmest readings of the entire month.  Humidity ranged between 25 and 40%.

The upper-level low pressure system which kept us in and out of numerous periods of high clouds throughout all of last week has now pretty much dissipated, with its remnants over far northwestern China.  That has allowed a weak ridge of high pressure to build over us, which should provide generally clear skies during the first part of this new week.  Then, we're watching another upper-level disturbance way off to the west -- but this will be a fast-mover, zipping by between late Tuesday and late Wednesday.  Again, we will probably see an increase in mainly high clouds, but as has been the case for the last six or seven weeks, rain chances will be very slim.

In the wake of this mid-week system, temps should cool off a few degrees, but it still looks like we will remain in the above normal range as we head into December.  Amazing that we've still not really dealt with any genuinely cold weather yet this season...

Check tabs above for more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

ridiculously mild... (pm.26.nov.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
Rainfall: none

Today's temperatures were more in line with what we would expect on about the 20th of October.  Yes, it has been extremely mild the last couple of days, even with the considerable amount of high cloudiness we've had to deal with.  We have mostly cloudy skies this evening after dark, but once again there was a lot of back and forth between nice sunshine and waves of high clouds going on throughout the day.  Humidity ranged from 18% this morning, to about 34% during the late afternoon.

In terms of the cloud issues, this past week has worked out exactly according to expectations, but in the temperature department, it has been much warmer than expected.  The colder air mass lurking to our north and northwest which a week ago had looked like it would spill over into our area has failed to do so -- and that has gradually become apparent since about Tuesday or Wednesday.  There have been periods of rain and snow showers in the higher elevations of the western Himalayan ranges the past few days, but the precipitation has avoided us, which has been no surprise.  I still think there is the slightest of chance of a random rain drop or sprinkle in our general vicinity overnight into the first half of Sunday, but let's not hold our breath.

A gradual cooling trend should be the main theme of the coming week, though the amount of cooling we're expecting may not even take us down into the normal range for the November/December transition period.  And rain chances??  Again, not more than a very slight chance on late Tuesday into Wednesday...

Get a look at forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab located at the top of the page.

Friday, November 25, 2016

second-warmest of the month... (pm.25.nov.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 64.7F (18.2C)
Rainfall: none

The warmest day of the month so far was back on the 9th when I recorded a high temp of 66.2ºF/19.0ºC -- but today wasn't very far behind.  There were patchy high clouds off and on today, but we definitely ended up with more sunshine than clouds, with dry and milder air easing up from the south.  Humidity was near the lowest of the season, ranging from 18 to 29%.  This evening, a thin layer of high clouds covers most of the sky, as temps remain far too mild for this time of year.

The upper-level low pressure system we've been talking about all week is finally on the move.  It will progress across the far western Himalayan region during the coming 36 hours or so, winding up in western China by Sunday morning.  This path is too far north to produce any kind of significant weather for us -- other than the fact that we're still in line for more periods, perhaps extended periods, of mid- and high cloudiness between now and Sunday morning.  Rain and snow showers remain in the forecast for higher mountain areas to our north and eventually northeast over the weekend, but our risk of some kind of shower action is only in the range of 10-20%.

A very cold air mass is wrapped up in this system, but that too will have a hard time affecting us this far to the south.  It's looking like our temps will stay well above normal for the end of November into the first several days of December, as this extremely easy-to-take autumn and early winter season continues...

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

inclemency remaining north... (pm.24.nov.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 60.9F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

We have mostly cloudy skies this evening as the last little bit of color fades in the west.  Actually today has been the epitome of what we call 'variable cloudiness', with some dramatic swings between bright sunshine and almost totally overcast conditions a few times between dawn and dusk.  Temperatures were slightly cooler than they were yesterday -- while humidity was just a bit higher, ranging from 18% to 34%.  And for anyone who might be keeping count... today was the 44th consecutive day without one drop of rain.

Some serious early wintertime weather is going on to our northwest across central Asia, thanks to the persistent area of deep low pressure which remains anchored near the southeastern coast of the Caspian Sea.  Temperatures from Iran to northern Kashmir have dropped well below normal for late November, with areas of light to moderate snow showers scattered from Afghanistan into the higher elevations of Kashmir/Ladakh as well.  Here where we sit, we remain in the mild sector of this system, and it is still looking like we will have only the slightest risk of an isolated shower in McLeod itself, perhaps on Saturday.  As far as temps are concerned, the very cold air mass to our north won't make it this far south, keeping us on the warm side of normal for the season as we finish off the month.

Unless we do get a few random rain drops on Saturday, it seems we have a very good chance of logging 0.00" of rain in the November 2016 record books.  

Get the forecast details and other info on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

variable skies... (pm.23.nov.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
Rainfall: none

The variably cloudy skies of the last few days continue... with partly cloudy and hazy conditions late this evening after sunset.  There were a few bright and sunny moments today, but overall, the mid- and high-level cloudiness has dominated, which held our daytime high temp down a bit, compared to yesterday.  Humidity has been at the very lowest of the season the last couple of days -- today ranging from about 16 to 25%.

The main features of our recent weather pattern are still in play; all hinging on a very deep area of low pressure aloft which is stationary just to the east of the Caspian Sea.  Weak to moderate upper-level disturbances continue to be funneled along the fast-moving jet stream flow along the southern periphery of that low pressure center, and that's the reason for the waves/periods of cloudiness we've seen since Sunday.  There have also been some light to moderate rain and snow showers in the very highest elevations of Kashmir/Ladakh into extreme north-northeastern Himachal Pradesh, but none of that has been anywhere close to us up til now.  I'm still holding on to a slight chance of some kind of freak light shower in our vicinity on Friday into Saturday, with the best chances of precipitation remaining north of us.

That sluggish low pressure system will finally get booted into western China, and then dissipate over the weekend, leaving us with a benign westerly flow for much of next week.  Dry.  Mild.  Dull.  Our very long streak of no-drama weather is set to continue.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING (on Thursday) to our American contingent... hope you can scrounge up something good to eat.!!

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

humidity low, temps mild... (pm.22.nov.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few scattered high clouds around the area late this evening, with temperatures remaining very much on the mild side.  In fact, both overnight low and daytime high temps were the warmest I've recorded since the 10th of November, nearly two weeks ago.  We had more high cloudiness streaming across the sky today, but the majority of it was during the morning hours, leaving us mostly sunny during the afternoon.  Humidity was the lowest of this entire post-monsoon season -- ranging from 17% to 27%.  Very dry indeed.

We've been in between upper-level disturbances the last several hours, but there are more on the way during the coming four days.  There remains a deep area of low pressure aloft centered just east of the Caspian Sea, which is forcing a west-southwesterly upper-level flow to stay entrenched across Himalayan north India.  The low pressure system itself is going to remain very far to our north, but wave after wave of disturbances along its southern fringes will keep the periods of mainly high cloudiness tracking overhead, all the way through Saturday.  I still feel confident that we'll miss out on precipitation here in McLeod, but the risk of rain and snow showers will be on the increase during the latter half of this week across higher mountainous areas to our north.  Already there have been isolated moderate snow showers in the higher elevations of Jammu &Kashmir.

The cold air associated with this system is probably not going to extend its influence very far to the south, which means I've been revising forecast temperatures upward, from what we were expecting earlier.  Maybe there are not too many complaints if we continue to run several degrees above normal as we finish off the month of November...

Check out all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located at the top of the page.

Monday, November 21, 2016

waves of high clouds... (pm.21.nov.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)
High temp: 61.8F (16.6C)
Rainfall: none

It's mostly overcast this evening, at the end of a day which featured variable high cloudiness from start to finish.  We did manage to squeeze out some decent periods of sunshine in the midst of it all, but there seemed to always be a good amount of those high, thin cirrus clouds drifting by overhead.  Even with limited sunshine, temps were mild.  In fact, after those few cooler days last week, we've been again running significantly above normal for the latter part of November.  Humidity today ranged from 27 to 36%, which is lower than it's been recently.

A broad and deep area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to dominate the weather pattern across central Asia, and we find ourselves on the southern fringes of that system, as a fast-moving jet stream flow brings wave after wave of high cloudiness across our area.  This system is not really going anywhere during the coming five days or so, and that will keep us in a holding pattern of sorts, with more variable high clouds, and temperatures which are now looking like they will remain milder/warmer than normal for the season.  The colder central Asian air mass we were concerned about is showing signs of reluctance to move further southward.

Rain and snow showers are still a good bet in higher mountain areas to our north -- all the way through Saturday.  So far, there has been no activity breaking out along the Dhauladhars, but that could change by the end of the week.  By Sunday, the pattern should shift yet again, but probably toward even milder weather, not toward more winter-like conditions.

Check tabs above and archives along the right column for other info and historical perspectives...

Sunday, November 20, 2016

an unsettled period... (pm.20.nov.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
High temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Rainfall: none

It's moderately hazy late this evening, with some patchy high clouds overhead.  Our November sunshine was seriously challenged by those occasional waves of high cirrus clouds today, but not totally extinguished.  Humidity was in the range of 33 to 45%, with temperatures just slightly cooler than they've been the last three days.

We're heading into a week which looks like it will be more unsettled than we've seen yet this autumn season, in terms of a good amount of mainly high cloudiness affecting us over the course of the next several days.  But -- it's still looking like the best chances of precipitation are going to remain north of us.  A broad and deep area of low pressure in the upper-atmosphere is building across central Asia, and will remain nearly stationary all the way into next weekend.  Moisture is very limited, but with some fairly impressive dynamics aloft, models are showing of few waves of at least moderate rain and snow in the highest mountain areas of Jammu & Kashmir into northern and eastern Himachal Pradesh between late tomorrow (Mon) and Saturday.  It's really past the normal date for something like this to happen, after this very mild and dry stretch of the last several weeks.

Temperatures will be very dependent on the amount of cloud cover we end up getting, but I think we could see some of the coolest days of the season by the time the weekend rolls around again.

Forecast details are updated twice a day on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

some changes next week... (pm.19.nov.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)
High temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Rainfall: none

There are no clouds at all late this evening, but it is moderately hazy.  It's been a day of almost full sunshine -- the only exception being just a few barely noticeable wisps of high, thin cirrus, and a couple of very tiny cumulus clouds which tried to form along the highest mountain peaks this afternoon.  Temperatures were very similar to yesterday's, with humidity highly variable, between 25 and 50%.

A different kind of weather pattern is going to be slowly taking shape during the coming 5-6 days, which is going to bring a changing scenario across the western Himalayan region.  An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is just now starting to evolve just east of the Caspian Sea, which will hold fairly steady for most of the week across Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.  This will orient the jet stream in such a way as to create increasingly unstable conditions from northern Afghanistan and Pakistan into Himalayan north India as the week progresses.  Up to this point, all of the models are keeping precipitation development just barely to our north, but we're going to have to keep a close eye on that, especially by Thursday and/or Friday.

One thing seems fairly certain -- that we'll have much more cloudiness to contend with starting on Monday into Tuesday.  And with less sunshine, our temperatures will of course be a few degrees cooler.  Anyway, follow along this coming week, as we finally have something a little more interesting to watch...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is located on a tab at the top of the page, along with lots of other info.