the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

temperatures peaking... (pm.30.apr.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)
High temp: 81.5F (27.5C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy at sunset this evening, here at the end of the final day of April, which has also turned out to be the new warmest day of the season and the year.  The temperature finally surged above 80F (27C) at my house in the very upper part of town -- making this the warmest day since last JULY, when we had a couple of sunny breaks in the midst of the monsoon season.  There was more cumulus cloud development over the mountains this afternoon than we've seen recently, with some high clouds coming in late this afternoon/evening as well.  Still, the sunshine did its job.

The big high pressure ridge which has been our main weather feature during the past several days is showing signs of weakening a bit as we head toward the weekend.  With a very warm air mass in place here in the lower levels of the atmosphere, even slight cooling in the higher levels (mainly above 15,000ft) is going to create some instability for us here along the mountains, and that is the scenario we're going to have to watch carefully through at least the early part of next week.  It looks like the potential for some thundershower development will increase by Friday into Saturday -- but questions remain as to whether that activity will remain in the mountains further to our north and east, or affect us further downhill.

One thing seems fairly certain, and that's that the steady warm-up of the last seven or eight days will be peaking very shortly, with the expected increase in clouds and scattered showers in the area.  Even so, our temps should remain near or even slightly above normal as we progress through the first few days of May.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

april's finale... (am.30.apr.14)>

The sun is just now rising above the Dhauladhars on yet another beautiful morning.  Skies are totally clear, with a low humidity reading of 34%.  I'm recording an overnight low temperature of 65.8F (18.8C), which occurred within the last hour, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

Our weather the past few days has been nothing short of stupendous for the end of April, with tons of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures.  The stationary ridge of high pressure parked over northwest India is to thank for all of this -- and it looks like we'll be warming even a bit more during the next couple of days.  We do have some subtle changes on the way as we move into May, however.  This very warm air in the surface layers of the atmosphere isn't going anywhere, but there is going to be some slight cooling beginning to occur in the upper-levels.  That cooling aloft may be enough to trigger more significant cloud development over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and as we head into the weekend, a better and better chance of some PM thundershower development as well.  Right now it appears that the most significant thundershower action would remain higher in the mountains to our north and east -- but it's something we're going to have to watch.

Unless we do end up getting some substantial shower activity by the weekend, temperatures are going to be running a bit above normal for the beginning of May, with no sign of any kind of long-term cool-down.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

t-shirt weather... (pm.29.apr.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)
High temp: 79.1F (26.2C)
Rainfall: none

There is some haze visible down in the valleys below, otherwise we have clear skies at sunset this evening.  It's been another sunny day, with only minor afternoon cumulus development over the mountains and a few high clouds at times.  My thermometer on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center tried hard to touch 80F (26.7C) this afternoon, but didn't quite make it.  Still, it was the sixth day in a row on which I've registered a new high temperature for the season and the year.

A summer-like ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across northern India, providing us with stable conditions and an atmosphere that continues its incremental warm-up.  It's been a fine way to wind up the month of April, which has seen its fair share of wet and unseasonably chilly conditions.  We may be starting to run out of good fortune, however, as our air mass looks like it will begin destabilizing as we head toward the weekend.  A bit of additional warming in the lower layers of the atmosphere is not going to get along well with some slight cooling aloft, and that will set the stage for an increasing risk of some mainly afternoon/evening thundershower development over the mountains.  It will be interesting to see if much at all happens as these subtle changes take place during the next several days.

Otherwise, expect our recent warmth to stick around as we transition into May, with temps averaging out on the plus side of normal for a change.

The CURRENT FORECAST tab above has the details.

going for 80F... (am.29.apr.14)>

It is clear, calm and quiet as the sun peeks over the mountains early this Tuesday morning.  I'm recording a very mild overnight low of 63.7F (17.6C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.  The current humidity reading is 36%.

Temperatures have been climbing steadily since last Thursday, allowing us to reach new highs for the season and 2014 on each of the last five days.  It looks like that trend will continue, with the first 80F (26.7C) temperature of the season on my thermometer here in the upper part of town by this afternoon.  A giant, sprawling ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is to thank for our recent summer preview.

It has been quite stable the last couple of days, but there are indications that we're going to lose that stability as the end of the week approaches, due to increasingly warmer surface temps clashing with some slight cooling which will start to occur aloft.  That means we should see more afternoon cloud development over the mountains again by tomorrow, which could progress to some isolated thundershower action mainly during the PM hours as we head into the weekend.  Our warming may finally stall out, but by that time we're going to be a few degrees above normal for the beginning of May anyway.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

Monday, April 28, 2014

still climbing... (pm.28.apr.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 77.7F (25.4C)
Rainfall: none

Late April gorgeousness is in full swing this evening, with almost totally clear skies just before sunset.  It's becoming routine that we achieve a new high temperature for the season and the year on a daily basis, and it's happened again today.  In fact, we're finally getting temps matching seasonal norms for the first time in many weeks.  Although there were a few cumulus clouds attempting to boil up over the mountain peaks, sunshine was firmly in control.

Our summer-like weather pattern has been evolving almost exactly as expected the last few days, as a broad and strong ridge of high pressure continues to build across northwest India.  It looks like there is plenty more significant warming on the way as we head through the week, taking us above 80F (26.7C) as we make our move from April into May.

This very stable atmosphere will be in jeopardy, however, by the latter part of the week.  Warming in the lower levels is expected to continue, while it stalls in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  That proportionately cooler air aloft by Thursday and Friday is going to lend itself to a better chance of some isolated thundershower development, mainly over the mountains, as we head into the weekend.  Right now it still appears that we'll have a good amount of sunshine along with summery warmth, but we may have to prepare ourselves for some thundershower-dodging.

Check the tab above for CURRENT FORECAST specifics.

close to ideal... (am.28.apr.14)>

We have totally clear skies again this morning at sunrise.  My overnight low here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has occurred in the past few minutes -- 62.2F (16.8C).  The current humidity reading is 32%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

The stretch of weather we're in the middle of right now is ideal, and probably just about as good as it gets all year long.  It's been pleasantly warm the last few days, and we've reached the point at which further warming actually moves us into a zone that quickly becomes TOO warm.  A building ridge of summertime high pressure continues to become established across northwest India, and that will keep our air mass warming up as we progress through this new week.  In fact, as I've been mentioning for many days, we'll be rising a few degrees above normal for this time of year as we cross from April into May.

Although we always have to keep an eye on cloud development over the Dhauladhars during the afternoon hours, it does look we'll be dealing with a basically stable situation through the middle of the week.  There are strong indications of instability returning by about Thursday, however, with an increasing chance of some PM thundershower development in the mountains -- and some of that scattered thunder action could begin to affect us as we head in the weekend.  Even so, temperatures should stay rather summery.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

best of the best... (pm.27.apr.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 75.9F (24.4C)
Rainfall: none

It's very close to 100% clear out there this evening as sunset approaches -- something that has happened only rarely in recent months.  Today qualifies for the very best day of 2014 award, thanks to sunny skies, pleasantly warm temperatures, and low humidity.  There was some afternoon cumulus cloud development over the mountains, but it was much less pronounced than it has been in the last few days.  As of today, we've now had a full week in a row with temps surpassing 70F (21.1C).

Dramatic and decisive changes in the weather pattern are always welcome, especially after extended periods of mundane sameness.  Although we had a few decent days during March into mid-April, it has only been during the past week or so that we've really started to break through into genuine late spring/early summer conditions.  And it looks like what we've experienced thus far is just the beginning of what's to come during the coming several days.  A seriously summer-like pattern is evolving and will continue to evolve, pushing our temperatures ever higher as we head through the coming week.  We're already approaching average/normal for this time of year (finally), and will end up nudging above normal for the April/May transition.

Our atmosphere should remain generally stable as a strong high pressure ridge builds across northern India during the next few days, but there are indications that instability will return by Thursday.  That's due to the fact that temperatures in the lower levels will eventually outpace temps aloft, setting the stage for a better chance of mainly PM thundershower development as the weekend approaches.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

warmer and warmer... (am.27.apr.14)>

Another beautiful April morning is dawning, with clear skies, comfortable temperatures and low humidity.  I'm recording a low of 61.0F (16.1C) here in the upper part of town, with just a trace of rainfall from the scattered thundershowers that moved through the area late last evening.  The humidity reading this morning is 35%.

The weak upper-level circulation that was hovering to our north yesterday finally did ignite some random thundershowers here on this side of the Dhauladhars last evening, but at least from what I witnessed, it was mostly thunder, lightning and a brief period of gusty winds, with only a few drops of rain.  What's left of that little system has now moved well off to the east, as a large summer-like ridge of high pressure begins to build across northern India.  This is going to be our main weather feature until the end of this week, allowing progressively warmer air throughout all layers of the atmosphere to establish itself.  The only thing we have to be concerned about is the afternoon instability issues over the mountains which are always very difficult to predict, and could lead to the development of considerable PM clouds and even an isolated shower/thundershower up there.  We'll have to watch that day by day.

Otherwise it looks like we're in line for lots of sunshine and temperatures which will continue to climb higher and higher all the way through at least Wednesday.  Our April-to-May transition will feature temps that are actually ABOVE NORMAL for the season -- and it's been a long time since we've been able to say that.

The CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

tastes of summer... (pm.26.apr.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 74.5F (23.6C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky looks very interesting at sunset this evening, with scattered towering cumulus clouds all around, and some significant thunderheads visible to the north and east.  We haven't had any showers or thunder at all in McLeod today, but clusters of thundershowers have developed not very far away from us late this afternoon.  The sunshine didn't have a lot of competition today, which put temperatures right where they were expected to be -- allowing us to reach yet another new high for the season and the year.

The weak upper-level disturbance we've been keeping an eye on is now centered right over the middle of Kashmir, with its associated rotation and pool of colder air aloft.  The real instability associated with this system has remained north of us up to this point, but I think we still need to be on alert for a random thundershower until about midnight, when the atmosphere stabilizes and this system moves far enough off to the east of us.

We'll then embark upon a period of about four days in which a summer-like high pressure ridge will build across most of northwest India.  There are going to be day-by-day issues of potential instability over the mountains which we'll have to watch, but sunshine and further warming of temperatures will be the main headlines all the way into Thursday.  We've been talking about 80F+ (26.7C) temps here in McLeod for this coming new week -- and that indeed looks like what we can expect.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

sun & risk of thunder... (am.26.apr.14)>

Skies are clear at dawn on this Saturday morning, so we're going to have bright sunshine very shortly.  It seems every time I post lately I'm reporting a "new warmest temperature", and that's happening again as the overnight low here at my location of 61.2F (16.2C) is the mildest this season.  Humidity is currently 37%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

A barely distinguishable disturbance in the upper atmosphere will be moving across northern India today, but there is certainly no tangible evidence of that this morning.  It only consists of a bit of upper-level rotation and a pocket of slightly cooler air aloft -- but it could be enough to generate some instability as the day wears on, leading to the risk of a random shower or thundershower or two somewhere around the area.  Enjoy the warmth and sunshine, but just be aware of that thundershower development potential as we move toward the afternoon/early evening hours.

I've now recorded five days in a row above 70F (21.1C), which is the first time that's happened since way back in September.  There seems to be little doubt that our temperatures will continue to moderate further as we head through the weekend into at least the middle of next week.  A building ridge of high pressure aloft is setting us up for a summer-like pattern for a few days, which has been a long time in coming this year!

You can always get the CURRENT FORECAST details by clicking the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, April 25, 2014

into the weekend... (pm.25.apr.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
High temp: 74.1F (23.4C)
Rainfall: none

A very pleasant evening is in progress, with just a scattering of high clouds and a few cumulus now dissipating over the Dhauladhars.  The layer of mainly high clouds which gave us a rather gloomy start to the day moved out shortly after 10:00am, leaving us with plenty of sunshine until a fairly major build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains got going after about 2:00pm.  There was some thunder audible here in McLeod around 3:30pm or so, but any rain shower action remained further uphill.  Temperatures again reached new highs for the season and 2014.

Although there's nothing really worth complaining too much about, we will still have to deal with a bit of unsettled weather during the next 24 hours or so, as a couple of weak ripples of energy in the upper atmosphere pass across northern India.  Be on guard for a random shower or thundershower (or two) between now and tomorrow evening -- but it still looks like any rainfall will be brief and relatively light.  We should still have some sunshine in the midst of occasional clouds and that risk of showers tomorrow, keeping our temps near the highest of this season so far.

A very summery-looking ridge of high pressure is showing up on the weather charts starting on Sunday... remaining the main feature into at least the middle of next week.  For several days I've been advertising our first 80F (26.7C) temps of the season by Monday or Tuesday, and that forecast still seems to be on target.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

weak disturbances... (am.25.apr.14)>

We have mostly cloudy skies at sunrise this morning, for a change of pace.  I'm recording the mildest overnight low temp of the season and the year -- 60.4F (15.8C) -- and there has been no rainfall since last report.  The current humidity reading is 38%.

A couple of weak upper-level disturbances will be flirting with north India during the coming 36 hours or so, and the first one has already stirred up a band of clouds which is moving through this morning.  It looks like there will be some sun appearing though, and with a marginally unstable atmosphere, we'll have to watch for a risk of a random shower or two today into this evening.  The next disturbance will cross the area tomorrow (Sat), bringing us a mix of clouds and sun, along with the potential for a shower or thundershower at some point.  There's still no indication that we're in for anything more than fleeting, light amounts of rain from all of this, but of course it's best to be prepared and aware of the changes.

The warmest air mass of the season (by far) is in the process of nudging northward into Himachal Pradesh, so as long as the sun doesn't get completely pushed out of the equation today and tomorrow, our temperatures will continue to moderate.  A building summertime high pressure ridge is still on schedule for Sunday through Wednesday of next week, providing us with a good amount of sunshine, and temperatures which will finally rise above normal for the season.

You'll find specifics on the CURRENT FORECAST tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

another new high... (pm.24.apr.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 73.1 (22.8C)
Rainfall: 0.06" (1mm)

We have scattered high clouds across the area as sunset approaches this evening, at the end of the new warmest day of the season and of 2014.  Strong sunshine and rapid warming this morning led to much more instability over the mountains than expected -- and by 1:00pm we had a batch of thick clouds and showers hovering just to our northwest, which drifted southeastward into our neighborhood.  There were a couple of periods of light showers and even some random tiny hail before things stabilized again by mid-afternoon.  A reminder that our mountain micro-climate instability factors can kick in anytime -- even when we least expect it.!

That brief brush with rain showers spoiled what should have been our fifth dry day in a row, and now we're heading into a 48 hour period during which we could see a few more random light showers and possibly some thunder.  An upper-level disturbance is going to pass well to the north of us during the first part of the weekend, but it's likely that we'll see an increase in clouds, along with some scattered shower activity around the area between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening.  Any rain amounts are expected to be light, but we'll have to keep a careful eye on it.  In the meantime, temperatures should continue their gradual moderation, despite the period of disturbed weather.

The most dramatic warming of the season will accompany a building ridge of high pressure across north India on Sunday into the middle of next week.  Right now it's looking dry and generally sunny during that time frame, with temps still anticipated to push toward 80F (26.7C) or even higher.  That will actually be a bit ABOVE normal for the April/May transition.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

april beauty... (am.24.apr.14)>

This morning is dawning with clear skies again, so we'll be seeing lots of bright sunshine in a matter of minutes.  There has been no precipitation overnight, and I'm recording a low temp of 58.6F (14.8C).  The current humidity reading is 38%.

Today will be day five of dry weather -- we've not had so much as a single drop of rain since last Saturday afternoon.  That really shouldn't be much of a big deal during April, but considering the long stretch of wet weather this year which began on the 3rd of February, it's something to get excited about.  We've got no disturbances of any kind threatening today, but there will be the usual afternoon instability issue over the mountains, leading to the development of some cumulus clouds and perhaps an isolated shower somewhere up there.  There is still a weak ripple of upper-level energy projected to swing across extreme northern Kashmir during the first part of the weekend, so we have to be aware of a slightly better chance of a couple of random showers or thundershowers around the area between late Friday and Saturday afternoon.  But honestly, that threat is not looking like much to be concerned about at this point.

Temperatures have reached the comfort zone the last few days, but should be rising further and quite dramatically as we move into the early part of next week.  A very robust ridge of high pressure will build into northern India starting on Sunday, giving us our first glimpses and tastes of summer -- with temps eventually reaching 80F (26.7C).

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

sailing along... (pm.23.apr.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's a beautiful evening as mountain clouds rapidly dissipate, leaving us with mostly clear skies.  Today has gone pretty much according to plan, with abundant morning sunshine yielding to the development of those mountain clouds by mid-day into the afternoon hours -- with even a couple of isolated showers in the highest elevations, according to the satellite view.  Temperatures today were very comfortable again, though no warmer than yesterday.

Moderate instability all along the higher Himalayan chains this afternoon was due to some slightly cooler air in the upper-atmosphere which is temporarily sinking southward.  At the same time, the lower levels are maintaining their warmth and even warming further in some areas, leading to the development of those clouds and isolated showers/thundershowers.  Tomorrow the upper levels are expected to resume warming up again, and that should erase most of the PM instability.  We've now had four days in a row without any rain here in McLeod, which is quite an accomplishment this season, and it looks like we'll make it at least until Friday evening before there's a chance of that changing.  A fresh disturbance will swing by well to our north, providing us with at least a slight chance of a couple of showers and thundershowers between late Friday and Saturday evening.

That weak system will quickly exit, setting the stage for the most impressive high pressure ridge and bubble of warm air of this season to build across north India early next week.  The data has been consistently pointing to temperatures rising above normal for the end of April -- making it feel like genuine summertime by Monday or Tuesday.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

truly warm... (am.23.apr.14)>

Another bright and sunny morning is taking shape, with clear skies just before the sun peeks over the Dhauladhars.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town has been 58.3F (14.6C), and there has been no rain since last report.  Humidity this morning is 38%.

Current satellite pics show almost totally clear skies from Pakistan through northwest India, thanks to a dry and stable west-northwest flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  There is expected to be a bit of cooling aloft by this afternoon and evening however, and with further warming occurring at the surface, computer models are hinting at a bit of instability over the mountains later today.  That means that our sunshine will probably again give way to some PM cloud development, with the possibility of an isolated shower up-mountain from us.  Still, it's hard to complain about this pattern.

Tomorrow is looking fantastic, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures continuing their upward trend.  A slightly better chance of some scattered showers or thundershowers remains in the forecast for late Friday through Saturday as a weak upper-level disturbance swings by to our north -- but right now it appears that most of the action would happen in the mountains to our north and east.  Our temperatures will continue to rise, perhaps even going ABOVE normal in a few days... imagine that!

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

we've waited so long... (pm.22.apr.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.5F (14.7C)
High temp: 72.2F (22.3C)
Rainfall: none

This could definitely be the most pleasant evening of the entire spring/early summer season and the year as well.  We have only a few high clouds scattered around, along with some dissipating cumulus over the mountain peaks at sunset this evening, with comfortable temps and low humidity.  There was a good build-up of those cumulus clouds over the Dhauladhars this afternoon, and perhaps a random isolated shower up there.  Also, we had some patches of high, thin cirrus clouds at times.  But -- the sunshine remained the dominant feature here in McLeod throughout the day, allowing us to reach yet another new high for the season and for 2014.

There's a weak little upper-level circulation located right along the Punjab/Pakistan border right now, but it's really puny.  Even the high cloud development today was less than expected.  I am very pleased to report that our general pattern continues to look favorable as we progress through the week, with lots of definitive warming occurring throughout all layers of the atmosphere, forcing the main branch of the jet stream well to our north, and keeping us out of the storm track that we've been stuck in for month after month.  This is the transition that normally occurs by the latter part of March, but as you know if you've been following this blog, we've been consistently lagging about 3-4 weeks behind the normal schedule of events this season.

We still have to watch the sun/cloud issues during the coming days, but as this air mass continues to warm up, it looks like we remain on track to push toward 80F (26C) by the early part of next week.  I think we could see a slightly better chance of a couple of scattered showers or thundershowers in the area between late Friday and Saturday night, otherwise the shower risk should be confined to the mountains above.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

more and more comfortable... (am.22.apr.14)>

Once again there are a few thin patches of high clouds around the area as sunrise approaches, otherwise we could call it mostly clear.  Our overnight temperatures have continued to moderate the last few nights -- I'm recording a low temp of 58.5F (14.7C).  There has been no rainfall since last report, and the current humidity reading is 35%.

The overall weather pattern is generally a quiet one, but there are still a few minor issues to watch during the coming several days.  In the near term, we have a very weak upper-level circulation to our southwest over central Pakistan which will shift north and eastward as it dissipates today into tonight.  There are some large areas of mainly high cloudiness associated with it, and that will pose a challenge to our full sunshine potential today.  There is also a slight chance of a shower developing over the mountains during the afternoon.  Otherwise things are looking good into Friday, with a mix of sunshine, occasional clouds, and that very small chance of some kind of PM mountain shower development.  We will have to watch for a slightly better chance of some scattered thundershower action on Friday night through Saturday.

As I've been alluding to for many days, we are on the verge of a significant moderation in temperatures, which actually is already underway.  As long as we don't get too many clouds to spoil the show, it's starting to look like we could be pushing 80F (26C) by late into the weekend or early next week!

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Monday, April 21, 2014

high clouds move in... (pm.21.apr.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 70.6F (21.4C)
Rainfall: none

We've had a notable increase in high cloudiness this evening, otherwise the day has been mostly sunny.  I recorded the warmest temperature of 2014 (by a hair) at my location in the upper part of town, and it definitely felt that way during most of the morning into the mid-afternoon.  It was really great to get a day squarely in the middle of the comfort zone.

Our atmosphere continues its transition into the most seasonable-looking pattern that we've seen this spring/early summer, with uniform warming occurring from the surface into the highest levels.  The warming has been so rapid in layers above 17,000ft (5100m) that we're starting to see some extensive high cloud development just to our west.  With a weak ripple of energy moving through aloft, we may have to contend with more high cloudiness during the next 24 hours or so than we've seen in the last couple of days.  There will also be the off chance of a random shower at some point, though that potential is most ripe in the mountains to our north and east.

The rest of the week will feature a mixture of sunshine, occasional clouds, and that mentionable risk of a mountain shower mainly during the afternoon hours.  Otherwise, we are on track to see our temperatures moderate further by Friday and Saturday -- taking us warmer than it's been around here since last September.

Get the details on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

coaxing the changes... (am.21.apr.14)>

There are a few thin wisps of high cirrus clouds at sunrise this morning, otherwise it is mostly clear and looking good.  My overnight low temp here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has been 55.9F (13.3C), with no rainfall since last report.  Humidity this morning is 33%.

We're in one of those stages when fundamental shifts are happening -- changing the basic nature and character of the atmosphere.  The weather charts are looking much different during the remaining ten days of the month, as much warmer air finally claims territory further northward not only at the surface, but into the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere as well.  What this means in practical terms for us is still a bit hard to say.  There will remain the potential for some periods of instability here along the front ranges of the Himalayas -- so we have to continue to be on guard for the build-up of clouds over the mountains during the PM hours, and the risk of some shower/thunder development up there as well.  There could also be some periods of high clouds this week which could put a damper on our late April sunshine at times.

But having said all that, the trend will definitely be toward more of a late spring and even early summer-like feel as we progress toward the weekend.  Temperatures are on track to get into the mid-70s(F)/23-24(C) in the near future, which will be the first time that's happened at my location in more than six months.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Sunday, April 20, 2014

an upward trajectory... (pm.20.apr.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 51.3F (10.7C)
High temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
Rainfall: none

It is 100% clear at sunset this evening, just as it was at sunrise this morning.  It has been a fantastic Easter Sunday, with the sunshine only challenged for a few hours during the mid-day by a moderate build-up of mountain cumulus clouds.  Those clouds never really eclipsed the sun for more than a few minutes, so it was definitely one of the sunnier days we've seen in a while.  The high temp, though pleasantly mild, was still very far below normal for the third week of April.

It has been a long time since we've been able to string more than three or four days in a row without at least a little bit of rainfall, and I'm still not entirely convinced we're going to break into that kind of genuinely dry and uneventful pattern.  Although there are nothing more than a few very weak ripples in the upper-level pattern expected to drift through this week, there is a moderate amount of latent moisture lurking in the atmosphere, and with a good amount of warming kicking in, it's possible that there could be a bit of instability at times -- especially during the afternoons over the mountains.  We'll also have to watch for some developing patches of high cloudiness on occasion, especially on Tuesday into Wednesday.

As is always the case, temperature potential will be dependent on how much sunshine we can hold on to during the coming several days.  This air mass will be warming steadily, and as long as the sun doesn't get too overwhelmed with cloud development, it still looks like we'll easily reach new highs for the season...

Check out the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

easter blessings... (am.20.apr.14)>

For many days we've been looking forward to Easter Sunday for a definitive turn to a nicer weather pattern, and it is indeed looking great out there just before sunrise.  HAPPY EASTER to all who observe and celebrate.  We have 100% clear skies, and I'm recording a rather chilly low temperature of 51.3F (10.7C) and a humidity reading of 40%.  There has been no rainfall overnight.

There are of course no guarantees here along the slopes of the Dhauladhars, but the overall pattern is looking pretty good for most of this coming week.  The most substantial warming of the season is being projected by all available computer models -- from the surface all the way into the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  We'll have a general westerly flow aloft, with only a couple of very minor ripples drifting through between now and Friday.

The two things to be aware of are 1) the potential for the build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains during the afternoons, leading to a risk of an isolated thundershower up-mountain from us.  And 2) some rather extensive patches of high cloudiness developing at some point.  Of course those two factors can restrict our upward temperature movement, but right now it looks like we should be approaching 74-75F (23-24C) before this week comes to an end.  That's almost where we should be at the end of April.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

a brighter future... (pm.19.apr.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 44.8F (7.1C)
High temp: 60.8F (16.0C)
Rainfall since 7am: 0.10" (3mm)
24 hour rainfall: 2.60" (6.6cm)

The view is very interesting just before sunset this evening, with totally clear skies from the south through the west, but towering cumulonimbus (thunderheads) visible from the northwest through north, east and southeasterly directions.  We managed to come up with a fairly decent day, as early morning clouds and scattered showers gradually gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine by the mid-day into the afternoon hours.  There has been some major redevelopment of thundershowers this afternoon -- but so far it has remained in the mountains mainly north and east of us.  Temperatures even recovered boldly from the extremely cool conditions accompanying the heavy rainfall overnight and just before dawn.

Our upper-level low pressure circulation is now sitting over Ladakh, and after we get rid of some lingering instability during the next few hours, should be out of the picture for us.  The risk of a shower or thundershower remains until midnight at the latest, then that should be the end of it.  Dramatic warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, combined with a rather weak and quiet westerly flow aloft will set in by tomorrow, providing us with a calm, peaceful, and considerably warmer Easter Sunday.  It's looking like this new pattern will prevail through the coming week, for the most part, though we'll have to watch day-by-day for the potential for occasional waves of high cloudiness, along with some afternoon instability over the mountains.  At least from the current vantage point, significant rainfall appears unlikely here in McLeod.

If the delicate sun/cloud balance along the Dhauladhars tips in our favor, we should easily come up with the warmest temperatures of the season and the year this week -- with hints of an even more dramatic upward surge during the final several days of the month.

Keep up with CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

we got hammered... (am.19.apr.14)>

There have been some breaks in the overcast that have let some glimpses of sun shine through early this morning, after a long night of rain, thunder and occasionally gusty winds.  My rain gauge shows a mammoth 2.22" (5.6cm) since 9:20pm, for a total of 2.39" (6.1cm) since steady rain began falling at 7:30pm.  That's about double the amount suggested by computer models, and a staggering amount to receive in just 10 hours during April.  You'll notice that there is fresh snow in the vicinity of Triund and above this morning as well.  And temperatures -- I've recorded a low of 44.8F (7.1C), which is the coldest in my books since the early morning of the 18th of March.

Well, we were braced for a significant period of rain last night, but what we got has certainly gone way over and beyond expectations.  The upper-level disturbance/circulation responsible for all of this is centered over extreme northern Pakistan this morning, with the general wave of energy expected to slowly move across Kashmir during the next 12 hours.  Although the bulk of the moisture available for this system to work with has been pushed off to the east already, we're going to have to keep a lookout for more scattered shower and/or thunderstorm development through this evening.  I highly doubt we'll see nearly as much rain as has already occurred, but be aware that we're not totally out of the woods yet.  It's going to remain unstable enough to keeping us guessing about alternations between sun and clouds as well.

I am very pleased to say that much-improved conditions will arrive just in time for Easter Sunday -- allowing us to salvage a bit of this holiday weekend.  A stretch of quieter, brighter, calmer and warmer weather is on the agenda for much of the coming week, apart from the usual afternoon mountain instability issues.  Barring any unexpected disasters, we'll have the warmest temps of the season...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Friday, April 18, 2014

grim indeed... (pm.18.apr.14)>

*Update @ 9:23pm... A more consistent and steady batch of light rain/thunder moved in around 7:30pm -- right on time.  Today's total rainfall has now surpassed a quarter of an inch (7mm), with more on the way overnight.  Current temp: 50.9F (10.5C).

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Friday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
High temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
Rainfall: 0.28" (7mm) -- as of 9:20pm

It's looking pretty grim out there this evening, with totally cloudy skies and some spotty very light drizzle in the area.  Today's high temp was the coolest I've recorded since the 28th of March, thanks to clouds and occasional rain showers that almost completely trumped the sun.  We did get some glimpses of sunshine around mid-day, but those were brief and easy to miss.  Rainfall up to this point has not been substantial at all -- I've had a total of 0.23" (6mm) in my rain gauge since this recent spell of unsettled weather began on Tuesday evening.

The final disturbance in this long-lasting series is the strongest of them all, and is centered right along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border at sunset this evening.  The satellite view is showing a very nice counter-clockwise circulation associated with it, and also an impressive amount of shower and thunderstorm activity near and to the east of the center itself.  It looks like the most significant rainfall potential/amounts of the entire week will be upon us tonight and Saturday -- with some thunder and strong winds on occasion as well.  The latest computer model data is fairly consistent with about 1.2" (3cm) in our general vicinity by the time this system moves out of here late tomorrow night.  That's a pretty heavy amount for an April storm system, so it will be interesting to see what materializes in the rain gauge during the coming 24 hour or so.

Easter Sunday should bring some major improvement, with a stabilizing atmosphere providing us with more sunshine and a rapid temperature rebound.  In fact, as long as the April sun doesn't get eclipsed by too much random cloudiness, we should be enjoying some pleasantly warm weather as the new week unfolds.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

things to deal with... (am.18.apr.14)>

There's a fairly thick cloud cover early this morning, with an occasional breeze blowing as well.  It looks like there was no rainfall overnight, or maybe just a trace at the most, and I'm recording a low temp of 55.4F (13.0C).  Humidity is currently 40%.

The nearly constant changes and fluctuations in conditions have been hard to keep track of the last couple of days -- a result of the series of minor disturbances in the upper atmosphere which has been moving through.  We've had wild swings between clouds and sun and then back again, gusty winds at times, random showers, and temperatures which have been constantly fluctuating.  There's plenty more to come as we head into Easter weekend, with the most potent-looking disturbance of them all now knocking on the door.

A wave of upper-level energy is now moving into Afghanistan, and will shift eastward during the coming 36 hours or so... winding up right over Kashmir and Himachal by tomorrow evening.  There seems to be more alignment of ingredients taking shape, which could lead to some fairly substantial shower and thunderstorm development in our area later today through Saturday night.  Right now the data is favoring the period from this evening into tomorrow evening for the best potential for some significant rainfall.  Some computer models are hinting at amounts of 1-1.5" (3-4cm) -- so it will be interesting to see if we get anything like that in the rain gauge.

The pattern will shift in a more favorable direction starting on Easter Sunday, setting us up for a few nice days during the first part of next week.  Depending on the ever-mysterious battle between sun and clouds here along the Dhauladhars, there is a chance that we could see new highs (temperature-wise) for 2014.

Keep track of CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

enjoying a respite... (pm.17.apr.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 49.3F (9.6C)
High temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.03" (1mm)

Skies are partly cloudy at sunset this evening, and we've actually had a really nice late afternoon and early evening.  Rain showers today were confined to the early morning hours, with sunshine appearing just after 11:00am -- sharing the sky with occasional clouds during the rest of the day.  We did have some very strong and gusty winds at times between the late morning and the mid-afternoon.  Temperatures made a modest recovery this afternoon, after starting off very chilly (and way below the norm for April) during showers around sunrise.

The sunshine this afternoon made it tempting to think we may be in for some improvement in our weather scenario in the coming days, but that is not the case.  This has been only a break in the action, with the strongest of our recent parade of disturbances expected to affect us tomorrow and Saturday.  In fact, there is already some redevelopment of showers and thundershowers occurring to our west over Pakistan, with a better chance of some significant showers and perhaps even a strong thunderstorm or two between tomorrow afternoon and Saturday evening.  If you have outdoor and/or travel plans the next couple of days, be sure to be prepared for sudden and potentially dramatic changes.  With rain chances continuing, temperatures will be hard pressed to warm up very much.

There have been consistent indications of a shift in the overall weather pattern starting on Easter Sunday.  It still looks like the risk of rain will drop and temperatures rise during the first half of the week (and possibly longer), with a good shot at seeing the warmest temps of the season by Monday or Tuesday.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specs on the tab above.

damp & dreary morning... (am.17.apr.14)>

Not a very lovely morning... it's cloudy at sunrise, and there are some light rain showers in the vicinity.  My low temperature has occurred just in the past few minutes -- 49.6F (9.8C) -- which is of course way too chilly for this time of the year.  The rain gauge shows another 0.03" (1mm) courtesy of these early morning showers, bringing the total to 0.12" (3mm) during the past 24 hours.  The current humidity reading is 71%.

This latest complex series of upper-level disturbances seems to be making the most of the ingredients it has to work with -- providing us with plenty of cloudiness and occasional light rain showers since mid-day yesterday.  It's a bit difficult to muster up enough moisture to produce heavy rainfall amounts in April, but it's looking like an even stronger disturbance in this series will sweep through here between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening, giving us a better chance of more substantial shower and thunderstorm action.  Although there should be some periods of sun in the midst of these clouds and showers the next few days, it's probably not going to be sufficient to allow our temperatures to rebound for long.  We'll be languishing in this well-below-normal range again through Saturday.

A positive-looking shift in the overall weather pattern is forecast to get underway on Easter Sunday, however.  Rain chances should quickly diminish, with a turn to brighter skies and much warmer temperatures for the first half of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST details are always available on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

active atmosphere... (pm.16.apr.14)>

*Update @ 8:17pm... The light rain shower just concluded delivered another 0.06" (1+mm) to my rain gauge, bringing the total rain for the day to 0.09" (2mm).  Not the kind of rainfall amounts to get all worked up about... but this IS April.

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Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 52.2F (11.2C)
High temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm) -- updated @ 817pm

It's mostly cloudy this evening, with a rather large area of showers with some thunder hovering just to our west-northwest.  The best weather of the day occurred during the early morning hours, when we had a couple of hours of dim sunshine, and temperatures which nudged 64F (nearly 18C).  Clouds thickened up thereafter, though, leading to a few sprinkles after 11am, and then a short period of rain showers between 1:30 and 2:00pm.  The sun tried desperately to break through again during the mid-afternoon, but didn't do a very good job of it.  Today's low temp occurred during that period of early afternoon showers.

Our weather scenario remains very changeable, unsettled and unstable, and will stay that way through Saturday.  We're having to deal with several weak upper-level disturbances/circulations riding through on a west-northwesterly flow aloft -- each containing little pockets of much colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  Any shower/thundershower development will transport some of that colder air down to the surface... which we dealt with first-hand this afternoon.  Although there will likely be some periods of sunshine at times during the coming few days, clouds will probably dominate.

Scattered showers and thundershowers could occur at any time, but it still looks like the majority of rainfall will happen between Friday and Saturday evening, as a more potent disturbance moves through.  The good news is that we should see a sharp drop in rain chances by late Saturday night into Easter Sunday, with a period of quiet weather and significantly warmer temperatures being hinted at for early next week.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

relatively minor issues... (am.16.apr.14)>

*Update @ 2:02pm... There have been a few sprinkles and spotty showers popping up since shortly after 11am, and we've just had a little rain shower between about 1:30 and 2pm.  Just barely a measurement in my rain gauge.  The temp plummeted to 52.2F (11.2C) during that shower, though, from about 64F (17.8C) at 9:30am.  Temps the rest of today will continue to fluctuate with clouds, sun, and potential showers.

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The sun is shining dimly through a layer of thin high clouds early this morning, and it's quite mild and pleasant.  My overnight low temp here in the upper part of town was 58.8F (14.9C), and there has been no rainfall.  The humidity reading this morning remains low -- at 32%.

There's not much new to say about our weather situation for the remainder of this week that hasn't already been said.  A west-northwest flow in the upper-atmosphere is full of weak ripples and circulations that will be riding across northern India.  The only adjustment to that will be a slightly stronger disturbance moving in by mid-day Friday which will turn that upper-level flow more to the southwest.  This April atmosphere is not a very moist one, though there are indications that we could see a batch of deeper moisture trying to push in on Friday into Saturday.

Anyway, all of this spells a stretch of unsettled conditions through Saturday, with alternating periods of clouds and sun, along with the nearly constant risk of a spell of rain showers or possibly a thundershower at some point.  If I had to nail it down, I'd say that the best chance of picking up a period or two of significant rainfall would occur between mid-day Friday and Saturday afternoon.  Easter Sunday is looking nice, at the moment.

CURRENT FORECAST details can always be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

unsettled days ahead... (pm.15.apr.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 70.1F (21.2C)
Rainfall: none

We're under some thick cloudiness just before sunset this evening, though we did have a good amount of sunshine until mid-afternoon in the midst of occasional mainly high clouds.  That sun boosted my temp in the upper part of town above 70F for only the second time this season.  Despite the increase in clouds, the average humidity today was very low -- in the range of 25-35% all day long.

The first in what appears to be a lengthy series of upper-level disturbances has come in a bit ahead of schedule this afternoon, stirring up an extensive area of cloudiness across Punjab, Himachal and Jammu & Kashmir.  There could also be a few light showers embedded in the clouds somewhere, but with this very low humidity at the surface, it's tough for any raindrops to survive on their way down.  The various computer models are unbelievably inconsistent with the timing of the individual disturbances which will move through between tonight and Saturday... but suffice it to say that we've got a few days in a row with at least a mentionable chance of some scattered shower and thundershower activity.  There will be a lot of back-and-forth between sunny and cloudy periods during the rest of this week as well.

Right now it doesn't look to me like all the necessary conditions are going to come together to be able to deliver a very significant amount of rainfall by the time Saturday rolls around, but we'll just have to keep a close eye on developing and changeable conditions over the course of the next several days.  Temperatures will remain variable as well, depending on alternating periods of sun, clouds, and showers.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

very pleasant... (am.15.apr.14)>

There are a few thin patches of high clouds around the area at sunrise this morning, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  It's one of the warmest mornings of the season according to my thermometer up here on Tushita Road -- I'm recording a low temp of just 58.1F (14.5C).  Humidity is very low, at 29%.

A west-northwest flow continues to dominate the upper-level pattern, and will be devoid of any significant disturbances today.  That should allow us to enjoy a nice April day with plenty of sunshine, apart from occasional waves of thin high clouds and the potential for a build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon.  If the sun can hold on long enough, our temps will be flirting with the warmest of the season and the year.

By tonight, the first in an extended series of upper-level disturbances will begin to move toward us.  That will bring in at least a slight chance of a shower overnight, with a better chance of some scattered showers and/or thundershowers in the vicinity on Wednesday into Thursday.  There will be very little break before a stronger disturbance in the series moves in on Friday into Saturday, keeping us braced for the development of more scattered showers and thunderstorms.  As I've been mentioning, this is not a continuously rainy period we're talking about, just several days in which we'll have to be on the lookout for scattered shower/thunder development in the midst of alternating clouds and sun.  Here at the mid-point of April, my rainfall total (0.74"/1.9cm) is actually a bit below average, believe it or not.  Although we've had quite a few days so far this month with clouds and a few showers, amounts have been generally light.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Monday, April 14, 2014

peaceful for now... (pm.14.apr.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 67.8F (19.9C)
Rainfall: none

There are scattered high clouds across the area just before sunset this evening, here at the close of a fairly pleasant Monday.  We've had a good amount of sunshine today, apart from a couple of hours of mostly cloudy conditions during the middle of the afternoon.  As far as I can tell, there was no shower/thunder development over the mountains.

Our weather pattern will be dominated by a west-northwesterly flow aloft during the next few days, which should be basically uneventful for at least the next 24 hours.  Although we'll have to deal with more high clouds again tomorrow, rain chances will remain small.  But by tomorrow night, the first in what looks to be a long series of upper-level disturbances will begin to drift our way, increasing the risk of some scattered shower and thundershower activity -- and that risk looks like it will remain with us all the way through Saturday.  We're talking about a springtime showery situation, not a long period of persistent, relentless, heavy rainfall, but it's definitely going to keep us on the lookout for potentially wet weather for several days in a row.

The air mass over Himalayan north India is a pleasant one, but not nearly as warm as it should be for mid-April.  Temperatures all the way into the weekend will be entirely dependent on the battle between clouds and sun, and will of course temporarily cool off significantly in the event of a rain shower.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

nice recovery... (am.14.apr.14)>

It is mostly clear at sunrise on this Monday morning, with 33% humidity.  I've recorded a low temp of 54.1F (12.3C) during the past hour, and there has been no rainfall overnight.  Up here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center, I observed just 0.01" (less than 1mm) of rain over the weekend.

Well, April is the second-driest month of the year on average, so it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the period of disturbed weather we dealt with yesterday was only able to produce such a paltry amount of rainfall.  I would have expected something closer to a quarter to a half inch (around 1cm) or so, but I doubt whether there were many people complaining.  At any rate, it is looking much brighter and nicer out there this morning, with sunshine and temperatures which are already quickly recovering from yesterday's unseasonable chilliness.  Although there could be some high clouds drifting in, and some mountain cumulus (and even thunder?) development during the afternoon hours, both today and Tuesday are looking fine.

Unfortunately, by Wednesday our atmosphere is going to start destabilizing once again, leading to a stretch of disturbed weather which could last all the way through Saturday.  It's not going to be continuously cloudy and rainy during that period, but we'll probably see scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up every day, with any further upward temperature movement being hindered because of that.  It is past time for us to be pushing into the mid-70s(F)/23-24C, but that's probably not going to happen for at least another week.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

sparse rainfall... (pm.13.apr.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 51.4F (10.8C)
High temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

We're actually having a fairly pleasant early evening, with partly cloudy skies just before sunset.  Although there has been lots of cloudiness to deal with today, the showers never got going at all, leaving me with a barely measurable amount in my rain gauge on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.  The most substantial (though brief) shower occurred around 8am, with only some random sprinkles thereafter.  The biggest news of the day was the significantly cooler temperatures, after the 70F weather of the last few days.

It turns out that computer models were indeed overdoing rainfall amounts across our area in conjunction with this weak disturbance moving through -- but I am very surprised that we've barely had any rain at all up to this point.  There are still some showers and thundershowers to our northwest which could affect us overnight, but I think rain chances will decrease significantly by the wee hours of tomorrow morning.  We'll have a break in the action on Monday and Tuesday, though we're going to have to constantly monitor the potential for high cirrus clouds at any time, and cumulus clouds developing over the mountains during the PM hours.

The west-northwesterly flow in the upper-levels that has been in place for about a week now will deliver a rather extended period of disturbances starting on Wednesday... continuing all the way through Saturday.  Right now it looks like that's going to put us in a position to pick up some scattered shower and thundershower activity during that period, while keeping our temperatures from getting anywhere near what is normal for the middle of April.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab above.

not so bright... (am.13.apr.14)>

It's cloudy at sunrise this morning, and there has been a breeze kicking up at times.  There may have been a few sprinkles of rain at some point overnight, but my rain gauge is showing nothing measurable.  I've recorded a low temp of 54.5F (12.5C) which has occurred just in the past half-hour or so.  Humidity is 35%.

Nothing much came of that shower/thundershower development which was just getting going over northern Pakistan last night around 9:00pm.  This morning's satellite pics show numerous patches of cloudiness across northern India -- extending as far south as western Uttar Pradesh -- with some scattered rain showers likely embedded.

A wave of energy moving into extreme northern Pakistan this morning will sweep across the northern half of Kashmir by tonight, and that's going to keep things rather unstable across our area during the next 18 hours or so.  I'm still not very impressed with our chances of getting any widespread, long-lasting rain, but scattered showers and some thundershowers are a good bet across much of north India as this weak system moves through.  If we're not able to see at least a couple of hours of sunshine at some point today, temperatures will be on the cool side, compared to what we've enjoyed the last few days.

It's looking relatively quiet on Monday and Tuesday, but then yet another series of weak disturbances will be dropping in from the west-northwest for the middle and latter parts of the week.  Although showers and/or thundershowers will be of the scattered variety once again, it's going to be another period of unsettled/unstable weather, preventing our temperatures from rising much higher than they already have recently.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

anticipating some rain... (pm.12.apr.14)>

*Update @ 9:03pm... There has been an impressive amount of shower/thundershower development occurring to our west over northern Pakistan during the past couple of hours.  Upper-level steering currents should bring this activity into our area later tonight.

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Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 69.7F (20.9C)
Rainfall: trace

It's partly cloudy this evening as sunset approaches, here at the end of the second-warmest day of 2014 -- at least according to my thermometer in the upper part of town.  As expected, there was a lot more cloudiness across the area today, but not enough to completely shut down the sun's warming effect.  There were some brief sprinkles of rain just after 2:30pm, otherwise we've managed to escape any significant wetness thus far.

There is no tangible 'storm system' on the weather charts, but we do have a scenario developing that is going to create a fairly unstable atmosphere across northern India between tonight and late Sunday night.  The mildest air mass of the season is encamped in the lower levels, while a weak upper-level disturbance drifting in from the west-northwest brings some slightly cooler air into the higher layers of the atmosphere.  In combination with a modest surge of moisture from the south, this is going to give us a better chance of scattered showers and thundershowers during the coming 24-36 hours.  This evening's computer model data seems to be in good agreement that rainfall amounts will stay below about 0.80" (2cm), and of course I could be wrong (!), but I think it could be much less than that in most areas.

Monday and Tuesday are both looking pretty good at the moment, but then yet another disturbance and associated pool of colder air aloft will trek across Himalayan north India -- increasing shower/thunderstorm chances again as we move into the latter half of the week.  There is still no sign of a radical surge in temperatures until perhaps next weekend.

CURRENT FORECAST details are on the tab above.