the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Saturday, August 31, 2013

showers dominate... (pm.31.aug.13)>

*Update @ 9:22pm...  Rain has stopped, temperature has dropped, and so has the humidity... down to 88%.  There is a north breeze ushering in some drier and cooler air for our last couple of hours of the month of August.

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C) -- at 8:40pm
High temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
Rainfall: 1.00" (2.5cm) -- updated at 7:50pm

August appears to be flexing its muscles until the very end.  We've had more moderate to heavy rain showers this afternoon and evening which are pushing us very close to 38" (96.5cm) for the monthly total here in the upper part of town.  The morning was looking promising -- there were a few periods of sunshine up until about 10am, in the midst of the clouds and fog.  But in the end, whatever pockets of drier air there were, weren't able to overcome the tropical moisture in the air, and the sun was trumped again.

Computer models are still advertising a slow-down in rainfall rates for Sunday and Monday, and possibly into Tuesday as well.  There are also indications that we'll get a lowering of humidity levels that will allow a bit more sunshine to break through.  So far that seems a bit hard to believe, based on our recent track record -- but let's see what might be in store for our Sunday, and if we might catch a break with September's arrival.

If we do get that respite, it looks like it won't last long.  An increase in the atmospheric moisture profiles will occur again by late Tuesday, lasting through the end of the coming week.  Right now, an early departure of monsoon conditions doesn't appear likely at all.  Remember, the average withdrawal date for our area is around 16-17 September -- still more than two weeks away.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other information can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

still saturated... (am.31.aug.13)>

There have been just a few brief, light showers since last night's report, amounting to 0.03" (1mm) -- which will be added on to yesterday's rainfall total.  That makes 0.96" (2.4cm) for Friday, and exactly 37.0" (94.0cm) for the month of August, with one day to go.  It's cloudy early this morning, with some light fog.  The temp is right around 64F (17.8C), and humidity is near 100% yet again.

Although the end of August does not mark the end of monsoon season, it's at least a psychological boost to turn the page on what often turns out to be the wettest month of the year.  That is definitely the case in 2013 -- we've had 12" (30.5cm) more rain in August than we had in July.  Check the MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL tab (above) if you're interested in the breakdown this season so far.

There's no big dramatic clearing trend expected this weekend, but it does look like our recent rather heavy rainfall rates will be easing up a bit during the coming 72 hours or so.  Some drier air is trying to work its way into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and we'll see if that can translate into a lowering of the humidity and perhaps a period or two of sunshine during the next few days.  On the other hand, ingredients remain in place to produce sudden showers and downpours of rain on any given day, so don't get caught unprepared!

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, August 30, 2013

robust august... (pm.30.aug.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 68.5F (20.3C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.93" (2.4cm) -- updated at 740pm

Fog is very thick this evening, and we've had a couple of brief but quite heavy showers in the last half hour (right around 6pm).  Although the rain hasn't been as heavy as it was yesterday, there have been a couple of periods of healthy showers since mid-afternoon.  The sun hasn't appeared as much as I had hoped, as clouds and fog have been the dominant features of the day thus far.  At my location in the upper part of town, the humidity hasn't dropped below 93%.

The past week has been a classic example of the character of monsoon season in McLeod Ganj.  Between last Friday and Monday, we had barely over 1" (2.5cm) of rain, with several hours of lower humidity and some nice sunny breaks.  But starting on Tuesday, average humidity began to rise again, clouds and fog thickened up, and rainfall rates started creeping upward.  We've now had close to 5" (12.7cm) since Tuesday afternoon which almost erases the memory of the dry spell we were in the midst of back at the very beginning of the week.

It sill looks like there will be another drying trend getting underway this weekend.  Although it won't stop raining altogether, I think we'll see the daily totals diminish, especially on Sunday and Monday.  Please don't leave the umbrella behind, but expect at least a subtle turn to brighter weather for a couple of days.  Thereafter, the upper-level weather pattern is showing some potential shifts that will eventually lead to a change in seasons here in the western Himalayas.  Stay tuned as we follow what that could mean for us.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other weather info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

monsoon still alive... (am.30.aug.13)>

We have clouds, fog and some glimpses of sunshine early on this Friday morning.  Things calmed down considerably overnight, after a very wet late afternoon and evening yesterday.  I recorded only 0.14" (4mm) of additional rain since last report, but that brings the total since early Thursday morning up to 2.83" (7.2cm).  From what I can see and hear, the gullies and nullahs have quieted down, but they were running very heavily last evening, at least here in my neighborhood.  It's 64F (17.8C) with 100% humidity right now.

Earlier this week it was looking like August might just sputter out without much fanfare, but that has all changed during the past 72 hours or so, with a total of 4.29" (10.9cm) since Tuesday afternoon.  We've still got two days left in the month, and there's a good chance we'll add even more to what has already turned into an above average August total.  So... be prepared for more showers and possible thundershowers roaming the area today -- although I think our rain chances will diminish somewhat on Saturday.

Things look a little quieter, relatively speaking, on Sunday into Monday as well, before tropical moisture sloshes back up against the mountains again starting on Tuesday.  Drier air has been making a valiant effort to push into parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and parts of Punjab, and will continue to do so.  However, it's still not going to be enough to permanently dislodge monsoon conditions, especially not here in Himachal.

Get your CURRENT FORECAST and other monsoon info on tabs at the top of the page.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

big downpours... (pm.29.aug.13)>

*Update @ 9:15pm... Not raining here at the moment, but my total for the day is now 2.69" (6.8cm).

*Update @ 8:13pm... Concerned about the massive amount of water running down through gullies and nullahs right now.  Rainfall during the last 5 hours or so is turning out to be among the heaviest of the past several weeks.  Please be careful if you're venturing out.

*Update @ 7:47pm... We've been getting more moderate rain showers during the past hour, and even some periods of heavier rain mixed in.  My total rainfall since midnight has now reached 2.31" (5.9cm).  Mid- and upper-level winds pushing lots of moisture up against the mountains this evening.  Will update if this continues....

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 71.1F (21.7C)
Rainfall since midnight: 2.69" (6.8cm) -- as of 9:15pm (updated) 

It's turned out to be quite a day, with the action centering around a one and a half hour period of rain during the late afternoon which dumped nearly 2" (5cm) at my location in the upper part of town.  There was heavy run-off and drainage happening in the gullies and nullahs between about 4 and 5pm -- definitely one of the most significant of the season from what I observed.  Otherwise, clouds alternated with peeks of sun and a few other very brief/light periods of showers throughout the day.  It's mostly cloudy again as sunset approaches, and rain has started falling again.

This morning I said I'd be surprised if we got more than 1.5 to 2 inches (4-5cm) of rain before Friday night, so I guess I'll have to admit I'm surprised with the the magnitude of this afternoon's downpour.  But then again, that's what monsoon season is all about -- getting hit with rain showers of pretty much any intensity, pretty much at any time.  This latest surge of tropical moisture has been building steadily since Tuesday afternoon, but should start to relent/retreat once again sometime tomorrow (Fri) or tomorrow evening.  We've already reached the normal amount of rain for a typical August, so anything more from this point forward goes into the surplus category.

The calendar page will flip from August to September this weekend, which should coincide with a drying trend during the first couple of days of the new month.  But -- it appears that moisture will thicken up again and rain chances increase quite soon thereafter.

Be sure to check out the tabs at the top of the page for the CURRENT FORECAST, MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL, and other info. 

generally damp... (am.29.aug.13)>

It's a grey and gloomy Thursday morning out there with some random sprinkles of rain and humidity very close to 100%.  There have been a couple of very light rain showers since about 4:00am or so, but my rain gauge shows only 0.06" (2mm) overnight.  The temperature is 65F (18C) to start the day.

We've got a pretty good blob of tropical moisture sitting over most of Himachal Pradesh, which should lend itself to more periods of showers and possible thundershowers between now and Friday evening.  I'll be surprised if rainfall amounts are over 1.5 to 2 inches (4-5cm) during the next 36 hours, but we'll definitely just have to watch to see what may or may not develop during that time frame.  We've already gone past 33" (83cm) for August, so it's almost a done deal that we'll end the month right in the normal range.

The general moisture profile of the atmosphere is going to thin out again as we head through the weekend into early next week.  That should allow some periods of lower humidity and perhaps some more appreciable glimpses of sunshine.  However, the ever-present risk of scattered rain showers will remain, especially during the afternoon hours.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details, along with other info on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

volatility... (pm.28.aug.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 0.94" (2.4cm)

There was nearly one inch of water in my rain gauge from a period of thundershowers this afternoon between about noon and 230pm -- that's the most rain I've recorded since exactly one week ago.  Both before and after that round of thundershowers we had a few glimpses of sunshine, but all in all, today hasn't been quite as bright as a few recent days.  Humidity stayed above 80%, and the temperature was a good 4-5F (2-3C) cooler than yesterday and Monday.

We've eased back into a more active phase of weather in the past 36 hours or so, as expected.  And according to computer model projections and current upper-air data, we stand a pretty good chance of picking up more significant rainfall between tonight and Friday, as tropical moisture gets pushed up against the mountains and forced to get squeezed out in the form of occasional showers and thundershowers.  This air mass is not as chock-full of moisture as it was just a couple of weeks ago, but some locally heavy rainfall amounts are within the realm of possibility.

Still watching with interest for any atmospheric feature which could arrive from the northwest and displace this tropical air mass that we've been dealing with more or less continuously since the second week of June.  Although there should be a drying trend occurring this weekend (during the August/September transition), it won't be the end of this year's monsoon.

MONSOON'S END?, on the tab above, will explain what needs to happen for us to get clear this year.  Also, get details on the CURRENT FORECAST and other info on other tabs at the top of the page.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

rain risk rising... (pm.27.aug.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.7F (18.7C)
High temp: 74.7F (23.7C)
Rainfall: 0.52" (1.3cm) -- updated at 8:00pm

A beautiful evening in progress -- we have partly cloudy skies, no fog (at the moment), and a view of the mountains that doesn't happen all that often during the monsoon season.  There was a lot of back-and-forth between clouds and sun again today, with a period of moderate-intensity thundershowers between about 3:20 and 5:00pm which delivered slightly more than a half inch of rain in the upper part of town.  That amount, though not really very much, was more than I had recorded in the three previous days combined.  The humidity dropped as low as 70% at one point during the middle of the day, and the high temp was once again very close to 75F (24C), thanks to the nice sunny breaks.

The healthy dose of rain this afternoon could be a sign of things to come between now and Friday or Saturday, as a fresh surge of tropical moisture begins to arrive here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  I don't see anything that would indicate we're in for an extended period of extremely heavy rainfall, but it does look like our rainfall rates will be creeping upward again after a few days of some very paltry totals for late August.

In my opinion, these next few weeks are among the most difficult of the entire year to get a handle on.  There are times when all signs point to a definite weakening and gradual withdrawal of monsoon conditions -- only to be hit hard with more heavy rain and thick fog which can last for a day or two, or more.  Patience required.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.  Also check out MONSOON'S END? (above) if you want more perspective on what the withdrawal of the monsoon looks like.

the lull continues... (am.27.aug.13)>

Some glimmers of sunshine are making it through the clouds early this morning, and there is some patchy fog around as well.  It's already up to 69F (20.5C), and the humidity reading stands at 87%.  There was some thunder for a brief time before dawn, but I've recorded no additional rainfall overnight.

The rainfall rate has slowed way down the last few days -- at my location up here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center, I've recorded only 0.45" (1.1cm) since Saturday.  With only five days left in August, we still need around 4" (10cm) to end the month with a normal rainfall total.  From where we stand, that shouldn't be too difficult a feat to pull off, as we should be easing back into a more active pattern during the coming 24 hours or so.  Right now I'm not seeing much potential for extremely heavy, long-lasting rains, but a few periods of moderate to heavy rain are a good bet before the end of the week.

Yesterday's sunshine helped us crack 75F (24C), which was the warmest temperature of the month of August, and the second warmest since the 15th of July.  As clouds and fog become more pervasive again during the coming few days, we'll most likely be saying 'goodbye' to temps that warm.  In fact, we may not make it above 70F (21C) for a couple of days during the later part of the week.

Get your CURRENT FORECAST details, along with other monsoon info by clicking the tabs at the top of the page.

Monday, August 26, 2013

recent dry spell... (pm.26.aug.13)>

*Update@ 9:01pm... That shower was a quickie.  Just 0.05" (1mm) in my rain gauge, but enough to keep us from having a day with absolutely ZERO rainfall.  Maybe more development overnight...?

*Update @ 7:51pm... It looks like we're not going to get away with a dry day after all.  Some moderate rain showers are moving in right now.  From satellite pics there is no indication yet about whether they will be short lived, or indicative of more widespread development.  Will update rainfall total later this evening as necessary.  Fog has really thickened up since around 630pm as well.

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
High temp: 75.4F (24.1C)
Rainfall: 0.05" (1mm) -- updated at 9pm

Skies are partly to mostly cloudy this evening, with some mainly light fog in the area.  Today was one of only three days in the last six weeks that I have recorded no measurable rainfall.  Although there was some thunder rumbling this afternoon, especially around 2:30pm, I never had so much as a drop of rain at my location on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center.  That may not have been the case further downhill.  There were several nice (but relatively short) periods of sunshine today, and that allowed my high temp to go above 75F (24C) for only the second time since the middle of July.  Humidity dropped into the 75-80% range between mid-morning and late afternoon.

There have been some heavier rainfall amounts down in the Dharamsala area during the past few days, but up here in McLeod, our rainfall rate has slowed way down since Saturday.  It looks like that trend may begin to reverse itself in the next 24-36 hours or so, however, as a fresh surge of tropical moisture creeps up from the southeast.  We usually don't get more than three or four days in a row with such light amounts of rain, so the odds are in our favor to be picking up some heavier totals as we move into the middle of the week.  Whether it comes in the form of quick downpours, or lighter rain that lasts for several hours, I think it will be happening before Friday rolls around.

September is just around the corner, but I see nothing in the extended range upper-air charts that would indicate a weather feature strong enough to push monsoon conditions out of our area.  In fact, it's likely that we'll get another 20" (51cm) of rain before Monsoon 2013 comes to an end.

The CURRENT FORECAST, as always, is available on the tab above.

morning sunshine... (am.26.aug.13)>

The sun has just peeked over the Dhauladhars, which is very nice to see on a Monday morning.  There is heavy dew this morning, so despite the sunshine, the humidity remains near 100% for now.  I recorded a low temp of 65.1F (18.4C), and no additional rainfall overnight.  I did hear some thunder during the very early morning hours, so perhaps there was some measurable rain at a few places further downhill.

Despite the fact that we didn't see very much sun (except for a couple of hours on Saturday morning), rainfall over the weekend was very light.  There were several generally brief periods of light showers between Saturday afternoon  and last evening, but at my place on Tushita Road, they amounted to only 0.40" (1.0cm) for the two days combined.

According to the computer model data, today should be the driest day of the coming week... not only in terms of rainfall, but in terms of average humidity as well.  Sunshine will do battle with the clouds and fog again, but if it can hang around for a few hours, we'll be enjoying some of the warmest temperatures of the last several weeks.  We could still see some scattered rain showers with thunder in the area, but it looks like the better chances of more widespread and heavier rainfall will hold off until the middle and latter parts of the week.  

CURRENT FORECAST details and other info can be found on the tabs above.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

the doldrums... (pm.25.aug.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm) -- as of 5:00pm (update to follow)

The sunshine put on a performance today that was way below unsatisfactory.  I really expected that we'd get more than just a few fleeting glimpses and glimmers... I'm also surprised that the humidity stayed above 90% all day, and that fog was so prevalent.  As of this evening, I've received exactly the same rainfall total as yesterday -- so though there were several periods of showers and a long period of rumbling thunder during the mid-afternoon, there wasn't a lot in the rain gauge to show for it, at least in the upper part of town.

After more than 8" (20cm) of rain between last Sunday and Thursday, I've now recorded only just over an inch (2.5cm) since Friday.  Our daily rainfall rate has taken a hit due to this slow-down, but we're now right around 32" (81.3cm) for the month of August.  It's still likely that we'll end the month near to a bit above normal.

I have hope that we'll get a drop in humidity for a spell during the next 48 hours or so, allowing another nice period or two of sunshine.  But, tropical moisture hanging tough right along the front slopes of the mountains will have to relinquish its grip for at least a few hours for that to happen.

The CURRENT FORECAST along with other monsoon info, etc., can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

monsoon teachings... (am.25.aug.13)>

It is Sunday morning, and there will be thousands flocking to Tsuglagkhang to attend teachings given by HH the Dalai Lama in just a couple of hours.  So far this morning it is mostly cloudy with some light, patchy fog -- humidity is near 100%, and the temperature is a mild 67F (19.5C) to start the day.  There has been no rainfall overnight.

Yesterday's rainfall total of 0.20" (5mm) was the least amount of daily rainfall I've recorded in exactly one week.  Although we had several periods of showers, they never lasted very long, and were generally on the light side.  We've got the same general atmospheric environment in place today, so be prepared for a bit of everything once again.  It's likely that we'll have some sunny breaks in the midst of clouds and occasional fog, along with the ever-present risk of the development of a few showers and/or thundershowers.  Computer model data this morning shows some discrepancies in terms of rainfall amounts -- one model says we could pick up around 1.5" (3-4cm), but the others are keeping amounts down around a half inch (1cm) or less.  Of course the mountain effects will end up being the deciding factor.

Although a period of sunshine and lower humidity for a couple of hours could still occur, it looks like we'll be mostly in the monsoon/tropical soup as we head toward the middle of the new week.  There is no evidence of an approaching weather feature that would be strong enough to shove this monsoon moisture out of our neighborhood for any significant length of time.  Check out MONSOON'S END? on the tab above, if you're interested in what to expect during the coming several weeks.

Your CURRENT FORECAST is also available on the tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

constantly changing... (pm.24.aug.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 72.9F (22.7C)
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm)  -- updated at 7:40pm

It's very foggy at the moment, but I have a feeling by the time I finish this blog and get it posted, something else will be happening.  It's been that kind of day again, with several fluctuations between clouds, sun, fog, showers and thunder.  Up til now, the rain has been confined to the period between about 12:30 and 3:30pm, when we had a few periods of mainly light showers.  My rainfall measurement in the upper part of town was the lowest since exactly a week ago... but even as I type, there is another shower appearing overhead.

The theme recently has been variability and changeability, sometimes within the space of less than a half hour.  Sunshine until mid-morning was acceptable for laundry drying, if you happened to get a chance to take advantage of it... the humidity dropped to around 70% at 10am, before the rapid development of more clouds and fog.  It looks like more of this 'back-and-forth' business is on tap for tomorrow (Sun), and probably into Monday as well, thanks to some drier air in mainly the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere.

Of course a day completely devoid of rain during the monsoon season is a rare thing, but rainfall amounts should continue to be generally on the lighter side until Tuesday.  At that time, a fresh surge of tropical moisture will arrive, perhaps erasing our sunny breaks and increasing our chances of longer-lasting and widespread heavier rainfall for the middle and latter parts of next week.

Keep track of the CURRENT FORECAST and other info on the tabs at the top of the page.

a decent weekend... (am.24.aug.13)>

There are some big patches of mid-level clouds obscuring the sun this morning, but it's still very pleasant out there with no fog, humidity at 88%, and the temp now rising above 67F (19.4C).  No additional rain fell overnight, which leaves us at 0.71" (1.8cm) for our 24 hour total -- and nearly all of that occurred between 1:30 and 2:00pm yesterday.

All of the available data shows that we are in for some fairly quiet weather during the next two to three days.  Computer models are showing very little rainfall development across our area, along with the moisture content of the air continuing to decrease.  However, here along the front slopes of the mountains we know that it doesn't take much to get some shower and/or thundershower action going, especially toward the mid-day and afternoon hours.  So -- keep that in mind and be prepared for those sudden tropical downpours that could dump some fairly heavy rain in a short period of time.  Still, I think we'll be seeing many more dry hours than wet ones between now and Monday evening.

A new surge of tropical moisture will be edging its way back into northwest India starting on Monday evening, and continuing through the remainder of the coming week.  That means humidity levels will be on the rise again, the potential for more widespread rainfall will go up, and we'll likely see more fog and less sun.

Check the details on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above. 

Friday, August 23, 2013

all of the variables... (pm.23.aug.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 74.7F (23.7C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.71" (1.8cm)

It's mostly cloudy this evening, although we should see a few glimpses of the sun to the west as it goes down during the next hour or so.  This morning's sunny skies were a sight to behold, with humidity dropping briefly to around 60% around 11:00am.  But right on cue, the clouds and fog started developing as the noon hour approached, which led to a brief but very heavy period of rain between about 1:30 and 2:00pm.  I had just less than 3/4 of an inch at my location on Tushita Road in the upper part of town, but almost all of that occurred in just 20 minutes or so.  There were a few peeks of sun thereafter, but not nearly as much as we enjoyed this morning.  My high temp (above) was the warmest since the end of July!

People are getting so anxious to be finished with the monsoon season... and this is the stage of the game when it gets difficult, and it's easy to be impatient.  We've been getting teased with the sun and blue skies, along with periods of lower humidity recently, but it all comes crashing down when the fog rolls in and the rain begins to fall again.  It is still way too early to begin fantasizing about the monsoon's withdrawal -- so we just have to get used to the extreme variability of conditions, since it will likely be with us for at least another 3 weeks or so, unless we get really lucky.

Expect the back-and-forth between sun, clouds, fog, and rain showers to continue through the weekend.  Then, we could actually slip back into a pattern where we see higher humidity, more fog, and very little sun as next week unfolds.

The updated CURRENT FORECAST and MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL stats can be found on the tabs above.

a bright start... (am.23.aug.13)>

It's looking really good out there early on this Friday morning.  We have partly cloudy skies, no fog, humidity at 79%, and a sunrise temperature of 63.7F (17.6C).  I've recorded no rainfall overnight, which is the first time that's happened in nearly a week.

We should be in for a bright and sunny start to the day, and with the lower humidity, it's going to feel very very pleasant.  The big question is -- how long will it last?  As the sun works on the very moist ground and moist lower-levels of the atmosphere, we'll likely see clouds and patchy fog develop by mid-day (or earlier), and then scattered rain showers popping up again, especially during the afternoon.  Our daily rainfall totals have been decreasing steadily the last few days, although we have received nearly 8 inches (20cm) of rain since Sunday afternoon.  Enjoy the brighter skies, but keep in mind the fact that we're not out of the woods yet, in terms of getting hammered with a good downpour at some point.

Despite that shower threat, this relatively drier and brighter period should last through the weekend, with the next gradual surge of deeper and juicier tropical air scheduled to start moving in as early as Monday, and especially towards the middle of next week.  It still looks like we are on track to end the month of August with a near to slightly above normal rainfall total.  Stay tuned.

Check the tabs above for your CURRENT FORECAST and MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL data.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

rain/sun duel continues... (pm.22.aug.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.6F (17.0C)
High temp: 68.7F (20.4C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.72" (1.8cm)

We're in the midst of a gorgeous, comfortable evening, as the sun sinks toward the western horizon.  It's been yet another day of extremes, with a mix of clouds, fog and sun early this morning yielding to an extended period of light to moderate rain between about 10:45am and 3:30pm, and then a return to sunshine late this afternoon.  Rainfall since late morning amounted to 0.68" (1.7cm), making up the vast majority of the day's total.  We didn't make it anywhere close to the projected high temp of 73F, thanks to that mid-day rain.

Efficient laundry-drying is quite a complicated science these days, depending on whether you have eastern or western exposure, and are able to be home at the right time to salvage the situation when the sun disappears and the rain descends -- or vice versa.  These are changeable times, which is quite normal during the last several weeks of the official monsoon season.  Different air masses are competing for territory now, as some marginally drier air drifts in from the west, only to encounter stubborn tropical moisture in place along the leading edge of the mountains and other parts of north India.

All I can say is the same thing I've been saying for a few days now -- expect some periods of nice sunshine and lower humidity alternating with other periods of clouds and thick fog, along with the likelihood of some sudden showers and/or thundershowers.  Daily rainfall totals have been decreasing steadily since Monday, but it's wise to factor in at least a couple of hours of rainy weather each day as we progress through the weekend into early next week.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

30" for august... (am.22.aug.13)>

Apparently there was a light shower overnight, because I have 0.04" (1mm) in my rain gauge this morning.  We have now surpassed 30" (76cm) of total rainfall for the month of August -- and we still have ten days to go.

Early this morning it is cloudy with humidity near 100%.  The temperature is just a bit warmer than I've recorded at this time of the morning during the past couple of weeks -- 66F (18.9C).  There's not much sign of fog OR sunshine so far today.

Although we've had some notable periods of sun the last couple of days, we're still getting some hefty downpours of rain that have kept the monsoon rainfall tally ticking upward.  More of that kind of variety is in store today, and into at least the first part of the weekend, with clouds alternating with sun and periods of rain showers and possible thunder.  A fairly significant retreat of monsoon moisture is being hinted at by computer models by late Saturday into Monday of next week, as some drier air attempts to push in from the west and northwest.  This is not yet the kind of dry air intrusion that will chase the tropical moisture away for good, but it is a sign of things to come.

I saw last night that the IMD monsoon page has finally updated their maps for average withdrawal date of the monsoon across India.  We are now in the 17-18 September range, which is a little more realistic, since official withdrawal each year since 2005 has been during the last week of September.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

sun vs. showers... (pm.21.aug.13)>

*Update @ 8:35pm... Still a few flashes of lightning, but those thundershowers to our south appear to be fizzling out.  No complaints.

*Update @ 7:42pm... A newly developed batch of thundershowers has been getting organized to our south during the past hour or so, and is creeping northward.  If it all holds together, we should have more rainfall to add to our daily total in the next couple of hours.

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)
High temp: 72.9F (22.7C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.13" (2.9cm) -- updated at 7:45pm

It's partly sunny this evening, and not raining at the moment.  It has been another interesting day, with a variety of weather conditions occurring since sunrise this morning.  We've had some great periods of refreshing sunshine, but also a couple of rounds of showers -- including a heavy downpour with an intense lightning strike (or two) during the mid- to late afternoon.  More than an inch of rain fell between 3:00 and 5:00pm, with most of that occurring in less than an hour.  Humidity did dip to 78% around noon, while my high temp of almost 73F (22.7C) was the warmest I've recorded since the 1st of August.

We've been getting just a taste of a post-monsoon atmosphere, with the increasing amounts of sunshine and slightly lower humidity.  However, it's still a tropical air mass we're dealing with, so the heating of the sun only serves to get things bubbling and boiling, leading to eventual shower and thundershower development during the afternoon hours.  It's amazing how quickly we can get an inch of rain, despite the fact that it is preceded and immediately followed by sunshine.

An upper-level disturbance from central Asia will sweep by just to our north this weekend.  It is going to be close enough to provide us with a west-northwest flow in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere by late Saturday or Sunday... ushering in some even drier air for early next week.  It's still too early to get excited about the withdrawal of Monsoon 2013 from northern India, but it's getting safe to say that the worst is behind us.

Keep track of the MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL tally along with the CURRENT FORECAST, located on tabs above.

plenty of variety... (am.21.aug.13)>

*Update @ 8:36am... Lots of sunshine at the moment -- arguably the most beautiful weather we've seen in weeks.!

There are patches of blue sky early on this Wednesday morning, but also a rain shower in progress here at my location on Tushita Road.  My rain gauge showed only 0.02" (less than 1mm) overnight, but the showers during the past few minutes are already adding to that.  Currently, it's 65F (18.3C), and the humidity is 96%.

As winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere shift around between southeast and southwest, we'll be seeing more occasional rain shower development here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  But at the same time, there continues to be a slow and gradual drying going on, in terms of the moisture content of this air mass in place over northern India.  That means we'll most likely get some periods of lower humidity (down to 75-80% perhaps), and a period or two of sunshine as well.

Yesterday's high temp of 72F (22C) was the warmest I've recorded in more than two weeks.  With the sun popping out more frequently between showers, we may see our temps rise even further as the weekend approaches.  Still... this is not the end of the monsoon by any means.  Be prepared for healthy downpours which could appear very suddenly, despite the sunny breaks.

Get your CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

the rain and the sun... (pm.20.aug.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.41" (3.6cm)

We've had a little of everything today.  There was more sunshine than we've seen on perhaps any day of this entire month so far, but we also had some moderate to heavy rain during the pre-dawn hours and another downpour during the middle of the afternoon.  Clouds and occasional fog made up the rest.  Most of today's rainfall total happened prior to sunrise, but the shower this afternoon deposited a quick 0.42" (1cm) in my rain gauge.  Just to add to the variety, humidity dipped to around 80% during the early afternoon, and my high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest since the 4th of August.

I've recorded more than 6" (15cm) of rain since mid-afternoon on Sunday -- only a bit more than 48 ago.  But we've also had some nice glimpses of sunshine during that period, which is maybe some foreshadowing of what awaits us during the coming several days.  There will be a definite drying trend throughout most layers of the atmosphere as this week moves on, which should allow our average humidity levels to drop into a more comfortable range and also give us a few hours of sunshine now and then.  However, the air mass will remain moist enough to produce scattered rain showers as it sloshes back and forth along the front ranges of the mountains, with a continuing chance of a few heavy downpours.

To sum it up... it looks like we're going to get teased with a bit of a post-monsoon vibe, but the risk of sudden heavy showers should keep us aware of the reality that we still have a few weeks remaining in this monsoon season.

Check the tabs above for the CURRENT FORECAST, along with other info.

emerald hills... (am.20.aug.13)>

Have been having a nightmare of a time getting/staying online, ever since last evening.  Not sure if it's an Idea 3G netsetter issue or something else.  Anyway, finally getting to the posting page after being unsuccessful all morning.

There was yet another spell of significant rainfall overnight -- most of it coming during the very early morning hours.  I measured 0.99" (2.5cm) here in the upper part of town.  Add that to yesterday's 3.62" (9.2cm), and that gives us a hefty 4.61" (11.7cm) in less than 30 hours' time.  There are actually some nice breaks in the overcast now, with the temperature hovering near 65F (18C), and humidity fluctuating between 90 and 97%.

Ever since the tap got turned on again, back on Sunday afternoon, it has been hard to turn it off.  There continue to be subtle hints of a drying trend as we head through the next several days, but that doesn't mean rain chances will disappear altogether.  Average daily humidity should be coming down a bit -- perhaps into the 80% range.  An hour or two of sunshine here and there should be a little easier to come by.  BUT -- there will be enough of a monsoon character to this atmosphere to keep us under the gun for occasional showers and even some heavy downpours at times, so keep that in mind.  If we do manage to get some decent sunshine, temperatures will be warmer than we've seen since the very beginning of the month.

CURRENT FORECAST and MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL info are on the tabs above.

Monday, August 19, 2013

quieter, perhaps... (pm.19.aug.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall since midnight: 3.62" (9.2cm)

It's mostly cloudy with some patchy fog at the moment, but we had some sunshine poking through earlier this evening during the hour before sunset.  The rainfall total since midnight is very impressive, especially considering that most of it occurred between 3:30am and 5:00am.  I've only recorded an additional 0.22" (5mm) since shortly after 8:00am.

My August rainfall total has now surpassed the total for the entire month of July, and is a couple of inches ahead of normal.  There are 12 days left in the month, but daily rainfall rates should decrease significantly later this week.

Heard today that yesterday's rainfall up around Triund was the heaviest of the entire monsoon season -- and all of that run-off is what triggered the waterfall surge in Bhagsu.  It was a very brief event, but apparently freaked out a lot of people, judging by all the over-hype that has been happening on facebook and other social media.

mega-wet... (am.19.aug.13)>

*Update @ 8:16am... An additional 0.63" (1.6cm) in the past hour and a half.  Rain seems to be lighter again at the moment.  The total since midnight stands at 3.40" (8.6cm) -- what a way to kick off a Monday morning!  Needless to say, there are probably some unstable spots on roads and hillsides, etc., due to all the rain we've had since yesterday afternoon.  Be watchful for local landslides and wash-outs.

*Update @ 7:09am... The rain has gotten heavier again, just as I posted this morning's blog.  Will update the rainfall tally shortly.

A period of very heavy rain has been coming to an end during the past hour.  The massive dumping which was heaviest between about 3:30 and 5:00am deposited 2.77" (7.0cm) of rain in my gauge up here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center.  Combined with yesterday afternoon's downpour, that makes 3.85" (9.8cm) in the 24 hour period.  There's still some light rain in progress at sunrise, with cloudy skies, 100% humidity, and a temperature of 64.5F (18C).

Talk about ebbs and flows!  Just this time yesterday we were discussing the weak and wimpy phase of the monsoon we had been in for a couple of days, and wondering when we would get hit again.  It's been very active since then, with a couple of periods of heavy rain, thunder and lightning, thick fog at times, and even some nice blasts of sunshine thrown in for good measure.  Computer models continue to be no help at all in predicting these surges of moisture, and how they will interact with the front ranges of the mountains.  This is pretty typical for the latter half of August, though, as traces of drier air from the west compete with the thick tropical moisture that doesn't want to give up much of its territory (yet).

There are still indications that we'll be seeing a general drying trend as this week goes on, which could feature a couple of hours of sunshine here and there, along with some periods of lower humidity.  Having said that, monsoon downpours can and will occur at any time, so be on guard for sudden changes.

Your CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

sunday extremes... (pm.18.aug.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.08" (2.7cm)

It's been a rather interesting day, with our weather swinging from one extreme to another.  We have a mix of sun and clouds as sunset approaches this evening, but it was raining heavily just 2 hours ago.  A very heavy downpour accompanied by thunder, lightning and thick fog delivered about 0.90" (2.2cm) of rain in just over half an hour this afternoon, allowing our monthly rainfall total to progress after having stalled yesterday.

I spent the late afternoon running around town trying to gather information on an incident near the Bhagsu waterfall this afternoon.  Apparently, there was a massive surge of muddy water that came down, due to a period of brief but extremely heavy rainfall up-mountain.  That corresponds with the time we were hearing lots of thunder north and east over the Dhauladhars (around 3:00pm), and before our spell of heavy rain down here in McLeod.  I can't confirm anything, but I've heard reports that two tea stalls near the waterfall were seriously damaged or washed away, and some people were temporarily stranded before the run-off of water subsided a bit.  If you've heard anything else, feel free to post in the comments section below.

I remember several years ago when two iron bridges below the waterfall were torn apart and carried downstream.  Sudden cloudbursts/heavy downpours can be treacherous in areas with steep elevation gradients.

As we push into the latter part of August, we should see more days with this kind of variety -- heavy downpours preceded and/or followed by periods of sunshine.  Computer model data shows a decreasing amount of available moisture in the air as we progress through the coming week which means our anticipated slight decrease in humidity and increasing chance of sunny breaks is on track.  Still, moderate to heavy showers can and likely will pop up at any time.

CURRENT FORECAST details, along with MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL totals can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

not too rough... (am.18.aug.13)>

It is mostly cloudy with some patches of fog drifting around early this morning.  The temperature is 65F (18.3C), with a humidity reading of 95%.  I found 0.10" (2mm) in the rain gauge from a couple of periods of light showers during the wee hours of the morning.  Here at my spot, I've recorded less than a half an inch of rain since Thursday evening.

Yes, we are indeed in a weak and wimpy phase of the monsoon, but it has been refreshing to get a few rays of sunshine, slightly lower humidity, and much less rainfall during the past couple of days.  But when I scan my daily rainfall records over the years, it's interesting how there are rarely three days back-to-back with barely measurable rainfall amounts during July and August.  That means the odds favor us getting hit with some heavier showers in the not-too-distant future.

Overall, though, the weather pattern is looking unusually quiet for this stage of August, and I would expect daily rainfall rates to be running below normal during the coming week.  Also, I still think there's a good chance of we'll be able to enjoy some periods of lower humidity and sunshine now and then.  Not too bad.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

saturday evening sun... (pm.17.aug.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: trace

We're getting some nice bursts of sunshine this evening, at the end of a Saturday that has featured very little rain.  I had some drizzle and a couple of very light rain showers in the upper part of town during the mid-afternoon, but it wasn't enough to register in the rain gauge.  Actually, today has been remarkably similar to last Saturday when we also received only a trace of rainfall.  The temperature was back up around 70F/21C this afternoon, as humidity dipped to near 90% for awhile.

The ebbs and flows during the monsoon season are always interesting to observe.  After a few days of significant rainfall, things have calmed down again during the past couple of days, and especially in the past 18 hours.  There were scattered rain showers all around us today -- in the mountains to the north and east, and across Punjab to the south and west -- but we have found ourselves missing out, for the most part.  

The likelihood of scattered showers and isolated heavy downpours will be in the forecast right through the coming several days, but the overall monsoon intensity is going to be on the weak side.  Already we've seen some slightly lower humidity readings along with those glimpses of sun today -- and there's a good chance we'll continue to see some brighter periods between showers, right into the middle of next week.  It looks like temperatures will be a bit warmer as well...

All the details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab at the top of the page.

stagnancy... (am.17.aug.13)>

There are some glimpses of sunshine through the clouds and patchy fog early on this Saturday morning, after a quiet night.  I ended up with just 0.32" (8mm) of rain for yesterday's total by the time the showers fizzled out late last evening, so there wasn't very much more since the last report.  Humidity remains near 100%, and the temperature is 64F (17.8C) to start the day.

The weather pattern is fairly dead across northern India -- with only very light flow happening throughout all layers of the atmosphere.  It's the tropical soup situation again, with lots of moisture in place, and none of it really going anywhere.  As the sun works on this air mass from above, there will be scattered rain showers developing again today, and it looks like the kind of situation where some of us could get some decent rainfall amounts, while others of us get very little.

A surge of drier air will be trying to push its way into western India during the early part of next week, which may chase monsoon moisture out of Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat for a couple of days.  But -- it looks like that moisture will surge right back in after only a short break.  I doubt whether we'll get much of a taste of drier conditions here, but I'm still hopeful about a slight drop in humidity and maybe a few glimpses of sun sometime between Monday and Wednesday.

Your CURRENT FORECAST details and other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Friday, August 16, 2013

a lot of the same... (pm.16.aug.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
High temp: 67.5F (19.7C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.30" (8mm) -- updated at 845pm

Steady light rain is falling as we approach sunset this evening, after a day that has been less water-logged than the last couple of days.  Although we've had several periods of drizzle and very light rain, we had plenty of breaks in between, and it was much more pleasant to be out and about.  Clouds still dominated the day, with only a brief glimpse of sun early this morning -- and humidity stayed above 90%.

Up til now, most of the shower development has been hanging a little further to our south and west.  It's turned out that upper-level winds were too light to force all of the lurking moisture up against the mountains to get some decent rainfall going.  But our air mass will remain near the saturation point right through the weekend, so it won't take too much to come up with a period or two of significant rainfall during the next 36-48 hours.

I'm still scouring the weather maps looking for something that would indicate a respite that might allow a moderate drop in humidity and maybe a random hour or two of sunshine.  There is going to be a fairly strong push of drier air working its way into western and central Rajasthan early next week, but it's looking unlikely that it will ever make its way into Himachal Pradesh, or even Punjab for that matter.  I guess it's just wishful thinking that we could get much of a break this early anyway...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST and the running total on MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL on the tabs above.

no real relief... (am.16.aug.13)>

We've been getting a break from the rain during the last 12 hours -- I've recorded just 0.08" (2mm) overnight.  Here at my location on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering center, there's been nearly 6 inches (15cm) of rain since very early Tuesday morning, and it sounds like amounts have been quite similar (or slightly higher) down the hill near Norbulingka.  At sunrise on this Friday morning we have cloudy skies, a temperature of 63.5F (17.5C), and humidity still remaining very close to 100%.

Satellite photos are already showing some new shower development to our west and south.  Winds in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere continue to blow from the southwest, which should carry any development in our direction, right up against the mountain slopes.  We're also still getting a very rich and juicy flow of low-level air from the southeast -- so all of this spells out a continuing good chance of some significant rainfall in our neighborhood today, and into the weekend.

It has been a long time since we've had more than just a few brief glimmers of sunshine.  I'm still hoping we may see a reduction in humidity (at least down to 75-80%) sometime early next week, along with perhaps an hour or two of sun here and there.  BUT -- a strong push of drier air sufficient to displace this tropical air mass for any length of time does not look likely at all.

Keep track of MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL and the details of your CURRENT FORECAST on the tabs at the top of the page.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

more and more... (pm.15.aug.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
High temp: 65.5F (18.6C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.98" (5.0cm) -- updated @ 7:45pm

It's a shock to look out the window and see no rain falling -- for the moment.  The rain has been persistent nearly all day, and we've even had a couple of periods when the intensity was heavier, mainly between mid-morning and early afternoon.  The total since midnight is nearly 2" (5cm) which isn't exactly excessive for this time of year, but healthy enough by mid-August standards.  Temperatures have been quite cool again today -- not budging much above 65F/18C.

We've definitely been in the "zone" recently, as we begin moving into the latter half of a month that is on track to finish with well above normal amounts of rainfall, unless something dramatic happens.  Computer models the last several days have been generally under-forecasting rain amounts, as opposed to the over-forecasting which was going on earlier -- especially during the latter part of July.  Check the MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL tab (above) if you're interested in rainfall tally specifics.

It's hard to believe that these more widespread, persistent rains are going to keep on keepin' on... but there is really not that much of a significant retreat of monsoon moisture on the horizon through the weekend.  There had been hints of some drying of the atmosphere early next week, but it's not looking so promising now, according to the latest data.

Details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab on the top of the page.

independence day wx... (am.15.aug.13)>


*Update @ 8:40am... The rain gauge keeps ticking.  I've registered a fresh 0.18" (5mm) in the past hour and a half... the showers have been in the light to moderate category for the most part, but don't be too surprised if we get some heavier stuff developing as the day wears on.

I recorded another 0.60" (1.5cm) of rain since about 9:00pm last night, which brings the total since yesterday (Wed) afternoon up to 1.39" (3.5cm).  The total for the month of August is now pretty close to 21" (53.3cm) which is impressive, considering that we've got a little more than half the month left to go.

It's mostly cloudy at sunrise this morning.  The temperature is 64F (17.8C), with humidity staying close to 100%.

I was thinking we might get some semblance of a break in the action today into Friday, but I'm not so confident about that anymore.  Winds in the lower-levels are pulling in moisture from the southeast, while the flow in the mid- and upper-levels turns slightly to the south and southwest.  That's a favorable wind profile for rain showers to continue to develop here along the slopes of the Dhauladhars, and even the computer models have kept at least moderate 24-hour rainfall totals in the forecast for our area, right through the weekend.

As we've been talking about over and over -- the ground is saturated, so almost all of the rain that comes down will be running downhill quickly via gullies and nullahs, across roads, etc.  Road conditions are dynamic -- changing all the time -- so just be careful and on alert as you travel around.  Wish I had a traffic helicopter, but that's not in the budget.

The CURRENT FORECAST on the top of the page has the specific wx details for the coming five days.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

cool and showery... (pm.14.aug.13)>

*Update @ 8:43pm... I now have 0.90" (2.3cm) for the day.  It has been raining moderately all evening, with a few minutes of heavy rain thrown in now and then.  Not sure our over-saturated ground can handle too much more of this.  The big gully near my house is running heavily right now.

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 67.9F (19.9C)
Rainfall: 0.58" (1.5cm) -- as of 7:30pm (updated)

There are light to moderate rain showers in the area this evening, with thick cloud cover and some patchy fog.  We've had much less rain today than yesterday, and it didn't even really get going until after 2:30pm.  In fact, although it was mostly cloudy, we had zero fog until about 1:00pm, as humidity dipped to about 85%.  For this time of year, we could call that a 'reprieve'!  It has been getting cooler by increments recently -- today's high temp was the coolest I've recorded since I returned here on the 15th of last month.

A lot of people have been talking about whether or not we might have an early withdrawal of monsoon conditions this year, since the arrival/onset was more than 2 weeks early.  An early arrival does not necessarily ensure an early departure, and extended range data is not reliable enough to tell us what might be happening a month from now.  September 15th or so is the historical average for monsoon withdrawal from Himachal Pradesh, but surprisingly, we've had withdrawal dates later than that each and every year since 2005.  Check this link from the IMD site to see their official monsoon page.  Once you reach the page, look for 'Withdrawal' on the left-hand column to choose/click through the various years and see the maps for yourself.  According to the law of averages, we are certainly due for an early withdrawal year -- so let's see if we get lucky in 2013.

Back to the near term... an upper-level disturbance is flirting with northern India right now, causing our upper-level winds to shift to more of a southwesterly direction.  This is pumping moisture up against the mountains and keeping us susceptible to occasional downpours.  I'm not seeing much of a change until early next week, when it looks like we could actually get a break for at least a couple of days in a row.

Details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

downpour potential... (am.14.aug.13)>

The sky is cloudy this morning, but there is no fog up here in McLeod right now, as humidity has been holding around 90% for much of the night.  I had an additional 0.11" (3mm) of rain since the last report, so fortunately, the heavier rains didn't continue overnight.  You've probably noticed it is just a notch cooler... 64F (17.8C) here on Tushita Road.

Yesterday's 2.5" (6.4cm) of rain led to a few problems around the area, with some flooded roadways, minor washouts, etc.  That's to be expected this time of year when the ground is over-saturated and even a brief heavy downpour produces too much water to be soaked up or drained off efficiently.  We should see the development of more moderate to heavy showers later today, so be cautious if you're traveling up and down and around, and be aware of places where the roads are unstable and crumbling.

Right now it looks like we may see the heavy rain potentially decreasing a bit between late tonight and mid-day Friday, before another surge appears for at least the first part of the weekend.  As I mentioned last evening, there are hints that we could have some nice, drier breaks with lower humidity in the midst of it all during the next 5-6 days -- but that doesn't mean the monsoon is on its way out!  Not yet.

For details, check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

a good soaking... (pm.13.aug.13)>

*Update @ 9:20pm... Total rainfall since midnight updated below.

*Update @ 8:12pm... Rain showers have been redeveloping and increasing in intensity during the last half hour.  Will post an update of the rainfall tally later tonight.  Concerned about more landslides, road wash-outs, flooding, etc., if this continues overnight.

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)
High temp: 68.5F (20.3C)
Rainfall since midnight: 2.51" (6.4cm) -- *updated at 920pm

It's cloudy this evening, and there's not that much fog around at the moment.  The rain has stopped, but not before delivering exactly 2" (5.1cm) to my rain gauge in the upper part of town between about noon and 4:30pm.  The majority of that occurred during a very heavy downpour during the noon hour itself.  It's been kind of a chilly afternoon, with the low temp (above) occurring just after 3:00pm during a period of heavy rain.

Satellite pics this evening show extensive rain and thundershowers covering much of northern Pakistan and southern J&K, with dying activity over parts of Himachal.  We've had the thick moisture in place for a few days now, but today there was finally enough of a 'trigger' in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere to lift and condense it into fairly widespread heavy precipitation.  The upper-air flow may carry more rain and thundershowers into our area later tonight, so it's possible that our total for 13 August will rise even further.

The coming five days or so will be interesting.  Computer models continue to disagree, and are having a generally confused time of resolving this weather pattern.  It is likely that we could actually get some nice breaks with lower humidity, but the chance of occasional very heavy downpours remains high as well.  I think even the most die-hard monsoon fans might enjoy some brighter days...?

Check your CURRENT FORECAST on the tab at the top of the page.

tropical soup... (am.13.aug.13)>

*Update @ 3:07pm... Some heavier and longer-lasting rain developed around the noon hour, and continues on.  I've recorded 1.80" (4.6cm) since the first light showers started up around 11:30am.  

We've had a respectable amount of rain in the past 24 hours, but it has come in mainly light doses, so it hasn't seemed like very much.  I've recorded 0.32" (8mm) overnight, which brings the total since this time yesterday morning up to 0.83" (2.1cm).  It's nothing excessive at all, by mid-August standards, but it's keeping us on our way to what could end up being a wetter than normal month.

Our sky was absolutely clear for an hour or two late last evening, but with all the moisture in the air, fog, cloudiness and showers erupted again.  It's mostly cloudy at sunrise with some patchy fog in the area, along with 100% humidity.  My early morning temperature is holding at about 65F (18C).

I'm really running out of words to describe our weather situation, and I get bored repeating the same things over and over again -- and you probably get bored reading it.  It's a tropical soup we're in, with occasional waves of energy drifting by in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Rain showers will continue to be a near constant threat, with bursts of heavier rain possible as well.  Computer models have been totally inconsistent with nailing down the heavy rain potential, and are swinging wildly with each run of data.  Just be prepared for typical monsoon downpours, which I think we're all accustomed to by now anyway...

Your CURRENT FORECAST is located on the tab at the top of the page.