the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

unsettled june arrival... (pm.31.may.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 80.1F (26.7C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

There are still some healthy cumulus clouds hanging along the Dhauladhars this evening as the sun sets, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  We've had the expected alternations between clouds and sun today -- along with a few periods of very light rain showers concentrated during the early afternoon.  As you can see from the stats above, the rain was barely measurable... and didn't do much more than temporarily wet the pavement... but rain it was, which we've seen very little of recently.  The clouds and showers held our temps down significantly.

For the better part of the last week we've been anticipating this shift in the weather pattern -- and it looks like it's only just begun.  The flow aloft is becoming realigned, and is allowing an upper-level low pressure circulation to take shape just west-northwest of us.  This feature is going to reach its peak of maturity by Tuesday, then only slowly weaken by Thursday as it slowly lifts northeastward.  What this means for us is an extended period of unsettled weather conditions which will include a few periods of showers and possible thunderstorms all the way through the middle of the week.  Right now it looks like rain chances will diminish considerably by Friday and Saturday -- but that's a long way off.

Today's high temp was the coolest I've recorded since the 17th of the month... and it looks like these first several days of June will be on the cool side of normal/average, with an attempt at a warm-up starting on Thursday or Friday.

Check tabs at the top of the page for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other useful info on climate issues here.

changes in progress... (am.31.may.15)>

The sun has been trying to peek through during the past 45 minutes or so, otherwise we'll have to say it's mostly cloudy so far this morning.  I've recorded no precipitation overnight, along with a low temperature of 68.2F (20.1C).

This morning's clouds are an indicator of the changes happening in our atmosphere which will be ongoing over the course of the coming few days.  A batch of upper-level energy has been organizing to our northwest, and is going to settle into northern Pakistan and Kashmir during the next 24 hours or so, then hover there for the majority of the week.  There is also an increasing amount of moisture available, hanging just to our south and southwest -- so we're going to see a greater percentage of cloudiness during the next several days, along with a better chance of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.  I still think the most favorable time frame for picking up some significant rainfall will be between Monday and Wednesday, but a few thundershowers could linger around the area into Thursday as well.  As I mentioned yesterday morning, our rainfall total for May is running below normal... but if we can get about a half-inch (1.2cm) of rain before midnight tonight, we'll end the month exactly on par.  

Temperatures will obviously be affected by the increase in clouds, and even moreso if we do come up with decent periods of rain.  We've had a long streak of very warm and relatively dry weather, so this temporary break in classic summertime conditions isn't all bad.  It should warm up again by the end of the week though... so this isn't a permanent turn to rainy and cooler weather by any means.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab for forecast details.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

still superb... (pm.30.may.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
High temp: 87.0F (30.6C)
Rainfall: none

We're enjoying yet another gorgeous May evening, with partly cloudy skies and comfortably warm temperatures.  The cloud development over the mountains this afternoon looked threatening for a little while, but if there was any thundershower development up there, it never got close to us.  The sun dominated the day, with temps exactly as expected.

Changes in the weather pattern are just now starting to get underway, but it may take until tomorrow (Sun) night or Monday before there is much evidence of it.  Some upper-level energy is dropping southward across central Asia at the moment, as the moisture supply to our south-southwest gradually increases.  By Monday, we'll have a fairly well-defined upper-level circulation center moving into northern Pakistan, which will be accompanied by some cooler air aloft.  With our moisture source improving at the same time, that's going to lead to a better chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity through Wednesday.  Right now I don't think the rain amounts will be excessive at all, but considering we've seen very sparse rainfall during the past couple of weeks, whatever we can get would be welcome.

A greater percentage of cloudiness along with periods of showers should bring a very noticeable drop in temperatures as June arrives -- but it still looks like we'll rebound again by the end of the week, back close to the normal range for the season.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other valuable info.

drier than normal... (am.30.may.15)>

There are a few traces of very thin cirrus clouds out there this morning just before sunrise, otherwise it is mostly clear.  It's been another very quiet night, with no rainfall and a pleasantly mild low temp of 66.7F (19.3C).

Since the 15th of this month, I've measured only 0.29" (7mm) of rain -- and for the entire month of May there has been less than two inches (5cm), which means we could end up below the normal amount for the month (2.3"/5.9cm) if we don't get any signficant rainfall before Sunday night.  February, March and April were much wetter than normal this year, so May has definitely been a major turnaround.

We do have slightly better chances of getting some random thundershower development somewhere nearby this afternoon, but it's looking like we'll have to wait another couple of days before those rain chances really increase.  An upper-level low pressure circulation is still forecast to develop across the western Himalayas by tomorrow (Sun) night into Monday, and then hover over northern Pakistan all the way into Wednesday.  There will be some much cooler air aloft moving in, along with an increasing moisture supply.  That's going to give us a decent shot at some cooler and wetter weather as we greet the month of June, though by next Thursday and Friday it should be drying out and warming up again.

I've recorded a high temperature above 80ºF/27ºC each and every day since the 18th of May -- but we may be cooler than that for at least a couple of days early next week.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info, including AWAITING MONSOON 2015.

Friday, May 29, 2015

no huge issues... (pm.29.may.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
High temp: 84.0F (28.9C)
Rainfall: none

There are some lingering clouds over the mountains just before sunset this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  This morning we had some fairly significant patches of high cloudiness dimming the sunshine... and though it was mostly sunny during the afternoon, the slow start to the day's temperature climb led to a high temp a couple of degrees cooler than we've seen the last few days.  No complaints, I'm sure, as it turned out to be a pleasantly warm day, with low humidity again.

It's interesting to watch how the computer models are handling the pattern shift which will be getting underway this weekend, and especially during the first part of next week.  Right now things continue to be rather stable, with any shower development remaining well up-mountain from us.  But there's going to be some cooling aloft occurring -- especially by Monday -- which will bring us a period of moderate instability, leading to a better and better chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms.  It still looks like we won't see anything more than some isolated/random action through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and/or evening hours, with a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds.  Temperatures will stay close to where they've been recently.

That better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday will last into Wednesday, and it's a good bet that our temperatures will drop several degrees as well.  But -- the latest data is pointing to a rebound to seasonably very warm temps and generally dry weather during the latter part of next week.  Check back for updates as we make the transition into June.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is available above, along with a look ahead on AWAITING MONSOON 2015.

seasonable conditions... (am.29.may.15)>

Some high, thin cirrus clouds are dimming the sun just slightly early this morning, otherwise it's looking great out there.  We've had another quiet night with no rainfall, and a very mild low temp of 69.4F (20.8C).

Our overall weather situation recently has been very close to normal for late May -- though our temperatures have been just on the plus-side of average/normal.  Humidity has been running very low -- mainly in the 25-35% range -- and rainfall has been very sparse since the middle of the month.  We are going to be seeing some gradual changes during the coming several days, but it looks like they're going to be happening very slowly.  The first thing is that the risk of a random PM thundershower or two re-enters the forecast starting today, and continuing through the weekend.  If we get anything at all, it's likely to be short-lived, and probably won't produce any kind of impressive rainfall amounts... but keep in mind the risk nonetheless.  Otherwise our weekend should feature a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds, along with temperatures in the same ballpark as we've seen for the last week.

A reorientation of the upper-level flow will settle in by Sunday night into Monday -- tilting to the north-northwest, and allowing a low pressure circulation center to develop over northern Pakistan, and then hover there into the middle of next week.  At the same time, there's going to be a fairly good influx of moisture converging here along the mountain slopes of north India.  We'll have to watch it day-by-day, of course, but right now it seems we could come up with a few periods of significant showers and thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday, with temperatures dipping substantially.  No, it won't be the beginning of the monsoon season, but just a temporary break in our recent very warm and dry weather.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found above, along with the just-posted AWAITING MONSOON 2015.  Check it out.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

quiet for now... (pm.28.may.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
High temp: 87.8F (31.0C)
Rainfall: none

The sun is setting just now as I begin to type, and other than one last tiny cumulus cloud over the mountains, our sky is clear.  It's been a gorgeous summer day, with lots of sunshine, low humidity (around 25%), and temperatures just slightly above the norm for these waning days of May.  There was some afternoon cloud development over the mountains along with the occasional patch of high, thin cirrus clouds -- otherwise the sun was firmly in control.

Our generally stable atmosphere the last couple of days has kept the thundershowers away, except for a couple of hours of feeble development higher up along the mountains during the mid- to late afternoons.  The moisture supply has also been virtually non-existent.  However, we're on the verge of some changes over the coming three or four days, as our overall pattern begins shifting.  The upper-level flow will shift to the north-northwest by Sunday and Monday, and that's going to bring in some cooler air aloft, along with what looks to be a fairly significant low pressure circulation.  We may get some mainly PM shower/thunder activity starting tomorrow, but the better chances of a few periods of more substantial rain/thunder will hold off until perhaps late Sunday or Monday... lasting through Wednesday.

Temperatures will stay in the near to slightly above normal range to end the month, but we will likely drop several degrees as June arrives, giving us a temporary repite from the very warm weather we've dealt with recently.

Get a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) for details.

sailing along... (am.28.may.15)>

There are some patches of high cirrus clouds across the area early this morning, otherwise we can call it mostly clear for now.  We've had a quiet and mild night with no rainfall, and a low temp of 67.1F (19.5C).

My thermometer here in the upper part of town has registered temperatures exceeding 86ºF/30ºC on seven of the last ten days -- a sure sign that we're into the very heart of the summer season.  I've yet to record a 90º/32ºC temp, but that only happens a couple of times a year on average anyway.  There's a chance we could make it that far between today and Saturday, but I think we're going to have to contend with an increase in mainly high clouds that will keep us slightly below that mark.  

Anyway, things are looking quiet for another couple of days, before we start to see a notable shift in the overall weather pattern.  The computer models are hinting at a turn to a north-northwesterly flow aloft -- unusual for this time of year -- that will bring in a series of disturbances and pockets of cooler air in the upper-atmosphere.  This will lead to what could be a rather extended period of unstable conditions lasting through the majority of next week.  Although we could see a couple of mainly PM thundershowers over the weekend, it's possible that we could have some periods of more significant rain and thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday -- just in time for the arrival of June.

It also appears that our temperatures could drop rather dramatically early next week as well, giving us at least a temporary break from our recent very warm summertime conditions.  We'll watch how it all evolves...

Check out other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tabs above.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

warm enough... (pm.27.may.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 68.2F (20.1C)
High temp: 87.2F (30.7C)
Rainfall: none

The day started with 100% clear skies, and we're ending it the same way.  In between, we did have a moderate build-up of clouds over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and even some rumbling thunder up there around 4:00pm or so.  Otherwise, the sunshine was pretty much unhindered here in town, taking us to a high temp which is almost exactly on target for the last week of May.

Our weather pattern during the next few days is not exactly uneventful, but it's not featuring much drama either.  We have a general ridge of high pressure across northern India at the moment, providing us with a relatively stable air mass and these seasonably warm temperatures.  However, there will be some twists in the plot as the weekend arrives, in the form of an evolving pattern more favorable for some weak to moderate upper-level circulations to begin moving in from the west-northwest.  With a very limited moisture source, I'm not that enthused about our chances for significant rainfall, but that risk of some shower/thunder activity will be on the increase again by late Friday.  Then, there will be at least a mentionable chance of thundershowers each and every day -- into the middle of next week at least.

The heatwave happening further south of us looks nasty, but lucky for us, our elevation keeps us protected from all that.  Still, we're going to be running in the range of near to slightly above normal as we finish off the month of May, with some cooling possible during the first week of June.  Stay tuned as we keep an eye on that.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

a summery groove... (am.27.may.15)>

It's totally clear as the sun comes up on this Wednesday morning.  Thunder was rumbling last evening between about 8:00 and 9:30pm, but it was accompanied by not even a drop of rain here at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.  So -- the rain gauge is empty, and I'm recording a low temperature of 68.2F (20.1C).

Disturbances in the upper atmosphere between Saturday night and late last evening brought thunder and some gusty winds during mainly the late evening and overnight hours, but I recorded only one-tenth of an inch (3mm) of rain during all of that.  But with very little moisture available in this late May air mass, it's not surprising the amounts were so tiny.  It looks like our air mass will be more stable between now and Friday afternoon, as some warmer air returns in the mid- and upper-levels.  Of course we can never totally rule out a late afternoon or evening thundershower along the Dhauladhars, but we should stay dry here in town during the next couple of days.  We'll see plenty of summer sunshine -- as temperatures remain seasonably warm.  I still think it's possible we'll nudge 90ºF/32ºC sometime late this week.

A new series of disturbances will begin to organize and drop in from the northwest over the weekend, and could hang around for much of next week.  We'll have to keep an eye on the moisture supply, but from what I'm seeing at the moment, rainfall amounts should be very sparse once again -- until perhaps next Tuesday or Wednesday when we could be dealing with something more substantial.

You'll find forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

no surprises... (pm.26.may.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 85.8F (29.9C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: none
24 hour rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

We've got a very pleasant evening underway, with some cumulonimbus (thunderheads) visible off to our east-southeast -- otherwise it's partly cloudy with temps dropping just below 80ºF (27ºC).  Today we had our expected mix of sun and clouds, temperatures very close to seasonal norms, and isolated thunder development flirting.  No thundershower action happened here in McLeod since the very early morning (pre-dawn) hours, however.

What remains of an upper-level disturbance/circulation is centered between Sringar and Leh this evening... continuing to fire up those isolated thundershowers to our east.  That weather feature is on its way out, to be replaced by a generally stable and quiet westerly upper-level flow which will take us into late Friday.  We should see plenty of sunshine during this mid-week period, with temperatures on the rise once again.  I still think we could nudge the 90ºF (32ºC) mark, perhaps on Thursday.  Drier air is moving in again, so even if we get some late-day thunder over the mountains, I can't imagine there being enough rainfall to even register a measurement in the gauge.

Some kind of a new disturbance is forecast to drop in from the northwest over the weekend, however, and that will give us the next better chance of some isolated to widely scattered thundershowers -- starting as early as Friday evening.  BUT -- we're still not talking about a whole lot of moisture to work with, so rainfall amounts to end the month will likely be minor...

Take a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above.

gradual return to stability... (am.26.may.15)>

It's partly cloudy at sunrise this morning, with a very mild temp of 71.5F (21.9C).  However, we had some thundershowers again overnight, and my low temperature here in the upper part of town plunged all the way down to 59.5F (15.3C) in the midst of the gusty winds and light rain showers.  Finally, there was a measurement in the rain gauge -- just 0.10" (3mm), but it's the most I've recorded in nearly a week.

The center of circulation of some lingering upper-level energy is located over northwestern Kashmir early this morning, and is expected to move off well to the east during the next 12 hours.  Although there is very little moisture available in this air mass, I am still concerned that we could have a bit more isolated thunder development around the area today, in the midst of alternating clouds and sun.  If that does happen, rainfall amounts should be very minor.  A return to stability is expected overnight and Wednesday, as warmer air arrives in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere once again.  That should provide us with more of the generally sunny and very warm weather we've gotten used to during the past week or so.

Another chance of some isolated thundershowers enters the forecast either late Friday or Saturday, but once again, any rain amounts should be very much on the light side.  Temperatures should average out close to normal or even a bit above as we finish off the month of May...

Get forecast specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Monday, May 25, 2015

a little rain would be nice... (pm.25.may.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
High temp: 86.7F (30.4C)
Rainfall: trace

There are a few clear patches, otherwise we have clouds in all directions this evening just before sunset.  Thundershowers have been threatening since late afternoon as well, though we've yet to get any action here in McLeod proper -- apart from some faint thunder and gusty winds.  Otherwise we've had a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds all day, with temperatures very close to normal for the latter week of May.

We remain under the influence of a disturbed upper atmosphere, as has been the case since late Saturday.  There are some pockets of significantly cooler air up above 15,000ft, while the air remains very warm in the surface layers.  This is creating enough instability to trigger isolated to widely scattered thundershowers across the western Himalayas during the afternoon, evening and overnight hours, and will keep us under threat tonight. Models are showing a return to generally stable conditions tomorrow (Tues) and along with a fresh push of very dry air from the west, that should get rid of our shower/thunder risk through Friday.  The chance of some mainly PM thundershowers will creep back into the forecast over the weekend, but we're still not talking about a major storm system or a significant amount of rain.

If you're waiting for any kind of a turn to long-term cooler temperatures, you'll be disappointed.  It's going to be plenty warm throughout the week... and could even get warmer by a couple of degrees over the course of the coming few days.

More information, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, can be found on tabs above.

heat streak continues... (am.25.may.15)>

We have a hazy sky at sunrise this morning, with just a few clouds lingering around.  For the second night in a row we had a bout of thundershowers which produced a lot more thunder and gusty winds than actual rainfall.  In fact, my rain gauge is barely wet at the bottom -- so there's no measurable precipitation to report.  Currently, the temperature is a balmy 72F (22C), but we did bottom out at 66.7F (19.3C) during a thundery episode around 3:00am.

It's been above 80ºF/27ºC for the last seven days in a row, and it certainly doesn't look like that streak is going to come to an end anytime soon.  But this is the time of year for it -- and it's usually the third week of June before our temperatures begin trending downward for the long haul, as we start easing into the monsoon season.  There could be some temporary relief in the form of a period of thundershowers -- and that possibility will exist again today into tonight.  Some upper-level energy and a minor pool of moisture have been teaming up to ignite at least isolated thundershowers during the PM into the overnight hours the last couple of days, but then temperatures have been rebounding very quickly thereafter.

Our air mass should be generally stable between Tuesday and Friday, but even then we can't rule out an isolated PM thundershower popping up at some point during the late afternoons or evenings.  Otherwise, there should be plenty of summer sunshine, as our temps top out very close to 90ºF/32ºC.  Of course it remains a lot hotter than that just downhill from us...

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

not much action... (pm.24.may.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 87.2F (30.7C)
Rainfall: trace -- during very early morning

It's a very nice evening out there -- both in terms of appearance and feel.  There are a few clouds along the Dhauladhars, otherwise we have mostly clear skies as the sun sets, temperatures are pleasantly warm, and humidity remains rather low.  We did have a bit more cloudiness today than we've seen the last several days, but the sun was still the major player, allowing our temps to remain slightly above normal for the date.

There are some isolated to widely scattered thundershowers strung along the Himalayan ranges from central Kashmir through Himachal into Uttarakhand this evening, but as far as I am aware, none of that action got anywhere close to us -- at least not up til now.  Our atmosphere is a not quite as stable as it was during most of last week, but the ingredients haven't really come together to trigger much in the way of significant shower/thunder development.  Looking at all the data this evening, I'd say we still have a chance of something popping up during the coming 24 hours or so, as a narrow band of moisture to our southwest interacts with a couple of very weak upper-level disturbances rippling across the area -- but long-lasting, significant rainfall doesn't appear likely at all.

In fact, a very warm and summery week is ahead of us... with only a very slight chance of a PM thundershower between Tuesday and Friday.  The rain risk may go up a bit by Saturday, but right now it doesn't look major.  And surprise, surprise -- our temperatures will probably be hitting new highs for the season and the year.

Peruse tabs above for more local weather information, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

summer variables... (am.24.may.15)>

We're back to clear skies at sunrise this morning, but it was a bit of a bumpy night, with some weak thundershowers moving through.  I should say 'thundersprinkles', because there's nothing measurable in my rain gauge -- they just produced a bit of thunder, some gusty winds, and only a few sprinkles of rain.  I've got a low temp of 63.1F (17.3C) which occurred in the midst that action... but it's hovering very close to 68F (20C) just before sunrise.

Our air mass has destabilized somewhat during the past 18 hours or so, thanks to an upper-level flow which contains a couple of weak disturbances.  There is also a narrow band of slightly more moist air lurking just to our southwest, and that combination has been enough to stir up some random shower/thunder activity across Himalayan north India.  There should still be plenty of sunshine the next couple of days, but we'll also be unstable enough to see more isolated to widely scattered thundershower development -- mainly from the mid-afternoon into the overnight hours.  It's been borderline HOT recently, so it actually wouldn't be so bad to get a nice shower to settle the dust and cool things off temporarily.

Another batch of drier air sweeps in by Tuesday, along with a trend back toward stability for several days.  That means most of next week will feature a majority of strong summer sunshine, along with temperatures running very close to the highest levels they ever get around here -- near 90ºF/32ºC.  But this is the time of the year for that to happen.

Check the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

another high reached... (pm.23.may.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 68.5F (20.3C)
High temp: 89.4F (31.9C)
Rainfall: none

There are only a few clouds hovering around the area just before sunset this evening, here at the end of another mostly sunny day.  Cloud development mainly in the vicinity of the mountains this afternoon never really got to the threatening stage, as all thundershower development thus far has been to our north... with some isolated activity well south of us as well.  My high temperature on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center set the bar for the new maximum of the season and the year.

A series of minor disturbances in the upper-level flow is starting to move across northern India now -- so it will be interesting to see how that affects us between now and Monday night.  With some cooler air moving in aloft, and a push of moisture coming in from the southwest, we have to be aware of the better chances of at least some isolated to widely scattered shower/thunder action during the coming 48 hours or so.  The models are looking very lethargic when it comes to rainfall amounts for us -- but this time of year it's always nice to get a refreshing round of showers, so let's see what we might be able to come up with.

We should return to a stable atmosphere by Tuesday, with things looking calm and quiet and VERY WARM for us all the way through the rest of next week.  But just think -- exactly one month from now, the monsoon could be knocking on our door.

Check out forecast specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

thunder risk returning... (am.23.may.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 66.4F (19.1C)

High temp: 87.8F (31.0C)
Rainfall: none

I wasn't able to post last evening due to a very sluggish internet connection, so i've included yesterday's stats in this morning's report (above).

Our sky is totally clear again this morning, after a quiet and uneventful night.  There has been no rainfall, and I'm recording a low temp of 68.5F (20.3C).  Humidity remains very low -- right around 30%.

Last evening there was quite a bit of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to our north and northwest, in association with a couple of disturbances in the upper atmosphere which are heading in our direction.  We'll see plenty of sunshine again this morning, along with temperatures close to where they've been the last few days, but by late this afternoon or evening it may be our turn to face that widely scattered thundershower potential.  Cooling aloft will overrun our very warm air mass in the lower levels, as a slightly better moisture supply becomes involved in the mix -- and that keeps the risk of at least a couple of waves of showers/thunder through Sunday, and possibly into Monday as well.

Although our air mass isn't going to cool down very much, there will be temporary shots of cooler air in the event of thundershowers -- warming up again quickly after they depart.  By late Monday or Tuesday things will stabilize once again, with temps very close to normal or even a degree or two above during most of next week.

Check out the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Friday, May 22, 2015

a dry air mass... (am.22.may.15)>

It's another crystal clear May morning, with pleasantly mild temperatures and rock-bottom humidity.  The current temp is also the overnight low -- 66.7F (19.3C) -- and there has been no rainfall to report.

One of the driest air masses of 2015 so far is encamped across northern India, which along with a uniform vertical temperature profile, is contributing to our very stable atmospheric situation.  Our location along the Dhauladhars is often a battle zone, even without a major storm system in the picture, so it's nice to be getting a break for a little while.

Temperatures the last three days have been right around the warmest of the entire season and year, and will remain in that range as we head into the weekend.  There will be lots of sunshine to go around today, and probably on Saturday as well, but a wiggle in the jet stream flow is going to introduce a period of instability for us between late Saturday and Monday.  It's looking like our risk of some isolated to widely scattered showers and/or thunderstorms will increase a bit during that period -- but I still feel fairly certain that we'll experience many more dry hours than wet ones.  Just keep in mind the potential for some mainly mid-afternoon through late evening thunder action to re-enter the equation.

Stability will return again by Tuesday, as our temps remain in the near to slightly above normal range for late May.  That means we could even be approaching 90ºF/32ºC at some point next week, as we move into the very peak of the summer season in our part of the world.

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK by clicking on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

rare stability... (pm.21.may.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)
High temp: 86.9F (30.5C)
Rainfall: none

It's one of those rare evenings around here when we have almost totally clear skies as the sun drops toward the western horizon.  There was only a moderate amount of cumulus development over the mountains for a few hours between the late morning and late afternoon, with no showers or thundershowers popping up.  That allowed the sunshine to be pretty much unhindered all day long -- providing us with the third warmest day of 2015.

The infinite amount of variables comprising the character of the atmosphere on a given day creates a situation in which perfect stability is indeed a rarity.  But today has come close.  There's obviously been very little conflict between temperatures in different layers of the atmosphere, and not enough moisture in this air mass to be lifted and condensed into very much cloudiness during the PM hours.  It looks like we might get away with the same kind of calm stability tomorrow (Fri), as our temperatures remain close to, or even a degree or two above average for this time of year.

We do have to keep an eye on some potential changes between Saturday and Monday, however, as some cooling aloft overruns this very warm air in the surface layers, leading to the return of some instability.  The risk of some scatttered mainly late afternoon through late evening shower/thunder activity will increase on Saturday, and continue on Sunday and Monday as well.  Those potential showers will be isolated to scattered -- and probably won't deliver more than minor amounts of rainfall.  Dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected again by Tuesday of next week...

Various tabs at the top of the page show more information about our general climate here in McLeod, along with THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

may excellence... (am.21.may.15)>

It's a very pleasant May morning, with totally clear skies and very low humidity (around 25%).  My current temp of 66.0F (18.9C) is also the overnight low, and there has been no rainfall since last evening's report.

I was just glancing at my statistics sheet for the month -- noticing that we've had measurable rainfall on 7 days out of 20, for a total of 1.69" (4.3C).  The average total rainfall for May is around 2.35" (6.0cm), so we're actually not too far off the mark thus far.  It looks like we could see more isolated shower/thunder development over the mountains late this afternoon into the evening hours, but with the moisture content of our air mass so low right now, any rainfall amounts should be very minor.  The same goes for tomorrow.  Otherwise expect lots of brilliant summer sunshine, with temperatures pushing very close to 86ºF/30ºC all the way into the weekend.

There is a more significant shake-up in the pattern scheduled over the weekend into Monday, however.  A couple of slightly stronger upper-level disturbances will glide across the western Himalayas, while a minor batch of moisture gets pulled up against the mountains as they pass through.  That means we may have to contend with a couple of rounds of more noteworthy shower/thunderstorm development between late Saturday afternoon and Monday evening.  I don't expect a washout at all, with some nice periods of sunshine in the midst of the better rain chances.

Check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

on a roll... (pm.20.may.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
High temp: 84.3F (29.1C)
Rainfall: trace

We've just had a brief period of sprinkles/very light rain showers zip through here this evening before sunset, but as of only a few minutes ago, the sun was shining brightly again.  It's been a fantastic, warm and sunny summer day, with that build-up of clouds over the mountains beginning during the late morning, but never really amounting to much.  As expected, today's high temp was a bit below yesterday's, but still very warm.

My thermometer at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center surpassed 80ºF/27ºC for the third day in a row, as we get back into the groove we were in  during the period of the 4th through 10th of May.  The moisture content of our air mass has been decreasing during the past couple of days, with drier and drier air filtering in between now and early next week.  This is allowing our humidity readings to drop below 30% for the first time since the beginning of the month.  But even with this very warm and relatively dry air mass in place, we have to keep our eyes on some weak upper-level disturbances moving quickly across northern Pakistan and northern India.  They could trigger more of the isolated mainly late afternoon/evening thundershower activity we've seen from time to time lately -- but probably won't produce very much to measure in the rain gauge.

There could be some temperature fluctuations if and when we get a rogue thundershower moving through, otherwise it's going to remain near or slightly warmer than normal/average for at least the next several days.

Check tabs at the top of the page for other important historical/climatological info for our area, as well as THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

a zone of warmth... (am.20.may.15)>

It is totally clear just as the sun rises this morning.  The low temperature since midnight has occurred within the past hour -- 64.2F (17.9C) -- though the temp did drop to 60.6F (15.9C) just before 8:00pm last evening, during our thundershower.  My rain gauge shows 0.11" (3mm) during that episode of thundershowers between about 7:15 and 8:40pm.  There's been no additional rainfall since then.

Yesterday was the warmest day of the season and the year... will temperatures keep climbing today?  A big bubble of hot summertime high pressure stretches across most of central into northern India, and we remain on the northern fringes.  Occasional weak upper-level disturbances in combination with our local mountain effects will cause very warm air to continue lapping up against the Dhauladhars for the next several days, but also provide us with at least a slight risk of some isolated thunder development from late afternoon into the early evening hours.  It looks to me like we may end up a degree or two cooler today than yesterday, but we're still talking about summertime temperatures which will be in the range of normal to slightly above for this time of year.

As we saw last evening, a round of thundershowers will temporarily cool down the atmosphere -- a welcome relief -- but there's really not enough moisture available in this current air mass to give us more than small doses of rain.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for details.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

reaching a new high... (pm.19.may.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C) -- at 7:45pm during thundershower
High temp: 87.8F (31.0C)
Rainfall: 0.11" (3mm) -- as of 8:45pm

Our sky has turned mostly cloudy this evening, as some towering cumulus clouds attempt to transform themselves into isolated thundershowers.  I haven't seen any rain drops yet, but there could be some.  My thermometer in the upper part of town reached it's highest point of the season and the year (see stats above) this afternoon, thanks to abundant sunshine throughout the day shining furiously on this summertime air mass in place.

We've quickly gone from temperatures several degrees below normal for mid-May to temps a few degrees above normal -- all in the space of about 48 hours.  A typically hot summer air mass is sprawled all across central and northern India now, and probably won't be going anywhere for a while.  Here on the northern fringes of that bubble of hot air we'll see a few weak upper-level disturbances move through, and that could stir up a few random/isolated thundershowers in the vicinity of the mountains, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Otherwise, sunny to partly cloudy skies should dominate as we progress through the rest of the week.  Average humidity levels should be dropping as well, decreasing the moisture source needed to fuel any significant rainfall.

I really don't expect our temperatures to warm more than another couple of degrees (ºF) at the most... but it's already warm enough, and not far from the warmest it ever gets (about 92F/33C) here in McLeod Ganj during this, or any time of the year.

Get a look at the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

summertime... (am.19.may.15)>

It's been one of the warmest nights of our summer season -- I'm recording a low temp of 68.0F (20.0C) here at my location in the upper part of town.  There's been no rainfall overnight, and we're waking up to clear skies.

The hottest air mass of the season is in place across the heart of India, and as of yesterday, the northern fringes of that air mass finally gained ground and moved into our area.  At our elevation and placement along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, we're fortunate not to have to deal with the searing heat that gets going this time of year only a few kilometers downhill from us.  Still... it's looking like temperatures will be close to the warmest of this summer season for us during the coming several days.  The highest temp I've recorded thus far was 87.2F (30.7C) back on the 8th of May, and we'll likely again be within striking distance of that very shortly.

Of course the battles between sunshine and mainly afternoon cloud development will be the deciding factor in how high our temperatures will surge -- and we also have to be aware of the risk of an isolated PM thundershower in the vicinity of the mountains.  There are a handful of weak upper-level disturbances projected to wiggle across northern India, especially by the weekend, so it's not a good idea to completely remove the thunder potential from the forecast.  Bottom line:  full-on summer for now.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specifics.

Monday, May 18, 2015

warmth finally surges... (pm.18.may.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 81.6F (27.6C)
Rainfall: 0.03" (less than 1mm)

There are a couple of showers moving through the area just before sunset this evening, but so far, I've seen only some random fat raindrops here at my location.  It's been a day of extreme variability, as we were talking about this morning, with some major swings between sun, clouds, thunder and light showers until between 10:00 and 11:00am, and then abundant sunshine dominating from the late morning until the late afternoon.  After 5:00pm clouds increased once again, bringing in the spotty showers this evening.

We finally got the major jump in temperatures today that we've been waiting for since Friday.  I was close to losing my sanity during the last 72 hours, waiting for the ground-truth reality to catch up with what the computer models kept advertising.  It was a painfully tenuous pattern shift we've just gone through, but it now looks like we'll be seeing these warmer temperatures stick around for the remainder of the week, as the big bubble of summertime air to our south finally invades.  We're not entirely out of the woods, though, with regard to this recent random thunder/shower activity -- as occasional weak upper-level disturbances ripple through from time to time.  But there is going to be less and less moisture available to work with as we head into the latter half of the week.

It's getting close to the core of the summer/pre-monsoon season here in the Dharamsala area -- so get used to very warm temperatures and only fleeting bouts of rain as we progress through the final couple of weeks of May.

For a look at forecast specifics, check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

coin tosses... (am.18.may.15)>

At the moment, we have partly cloudy skies -- but there has been so much variability overnight, with conditions changing almost from moment to moment.  We did have a few periods of thunder, very gusty winds and very light rain showers during the overnight hours, but my rain gauge is showing a paltry 0.02" (less than 1mm).  All bark and no bite, in terms of actually getting some noteworthy rainfall.  I'm recording a low temp of 62.2F (16.7C) which occurred during the most recent thunder/wind episode before dawn, but it's now close to 66F (19C).

The way this latest hot summertime air mass lurking just to our south has been interacting with the western Himalayan ranges these last few days has been befuddling.  There are a few times every year when I get frustrated and irritated as I look at all the data and computer model output, then compare it to what is actually going on and taking shape -- and this is definitely one of those times.  The big ridge of high pressure just to our south has not made the push northward that each and every run of the computer model data keeps projecting, while a lingering batch of moisture which the models had long ago dragged south and east of us remains sprawled out along the front ranges of the mountains.  All this to say -- we'll have to be braced for more variable cloud development in our neighborhood, along with the risk of an isolated, passing thundershower or two, in the midst of sunny breaks as well.  Sounds a bit like a toss of the coin, doesn't it?

There are still consistent signs of a major rise in temperatures, and a turn to more reliable sunshine as the week goes on, but my faith in the model guidance is near an all time low.  Let's see....

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

cloud annoyances... (pm.17.may.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 74.3F (23.5C)
Rainfall: none

The sun is visible through hazy skies to our west this evening, with a few lingering and dissipating clouds along the Dhauladhars.  It's been another frustrating day, with regard to cloud development here along the front slopes of the mountains.  Our nice morning sunshine didn't last very long, with skies turning mostly cloudy by 10:00am, and then only fleeting peeks of sunshine until clearing kicked in between 4:30 and 5:00pm.  Those mid-day clouds prevented our temps from reaching their potential -- though it was very pleasant.

The big warm-up we've been talking about and anticipating for three days has been held up due to the freak cloud development here along the Dhauladhar slopes after only a few hours of morning heating.  You only have to go down to Kangra to get a taste of this very warm air mass which continues to heat up across the plains of north India.  There were also some thundershowers which passed quickly to our north and northeast this afternoon, but we missed out on that action as well.

According to the data and computer models, this much warmer air should have taken over our atmosphere a couple of days ago... but I guess we'll try again tomorrow, and see if the nuances of moisture and temperature variability in different layers of this air mass can iron themselves out to prevent the pesky cloud build-up along the mountains.  It's also worth mentioning that there could be a random period of thundershowers as well -- mainly between tonight and late Tuesday night.  After that, sunny to partly cloudy skies and seasonably warm temps should take us through the rest of the week.

Get a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page.

morphing pattern... (am.17.may.15)>

It's partly cloudy at sunrise, as some patches of mid- and high clouds zip across the early morning sky.  We've had a quiet and mild night, with no rainfall, and a low temp of 63.3F (17.4C) here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.

The transition into this next phase of warmer weather has been taking longer than expected, as it sometimes does when we have an air mass shift interacting with local mountain effects.  Already there is much warmer air in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, but afternoon cloud development along the front slopes of the mountains squelched our nice warming here in the lower levels yesterday.  It looks like we may achieve more of a stable balance between differing temperatures in different layers of the atmosphere today -- but I have to say I'm not brimming over with confidence.  Anyway, the general trend in temps during the coming several days should be upward, as we settle into the range of near or even a bit above normal/average for the season.

A couple of the computer models are showing some random, isolated, mainly PM shower/thunder development in the vicinity of the mountains between now and Tuesday, though it looks like the westerly upper-level flow might carry any development away from us.  So all in all... we're talking about a fairly normal mid-May weather scenario during the coming week, as we approach the warmest period of the year, climatologically speaking...

Check out the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

struggling upward... (pm.16.may.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.7F (15.4C)
High temp: 76.4F (24.7C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few lingering clouds during these few minutes before sunset this evening, after a mostly cloudy afternoon.  Full sunshine this morning was replaced by some fairly rapid cloud development over the mountains just before the noon hour, but our skies are bright again here at the end of the day.  My high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest since Monday, but still well short of the 80ºF mark -- and still below normal for the middle of May.

A huge mass of much warmer air continues to lurk to our south and west, and wasn't able to make its push as far as the Dhauladhars yet today.  That's still going to happen, most likely during the next 24 hours or so, very quickly taking us into the above normal/average temperature range for the season.  It's always a nail-biter as we watch a new warmer air mass interact with the mountains, but I still think we won't see anything more than some very isolated shower or thunder development, mainly during the PM hours, during much of the coming week.  Earlier it had looked like we may have a better chance of a round or two of thunderstorms during the mid-week period, but that now looks questionable.  Anyway, as always, check in here for twice daily updates in case the scenario changes.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has the forecast details...

a fresh start... (am.16.may.15)>

A gorgeous May morning is shaping up, with totally clear skies at sunrise along with pleasant temperatures.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town just occurred in the past few minutes -- 59.7F (15.4C) -- and there has been no rainfall since last report.

The unsettled/disturbed weather of the past several days brought us 1.55" (3.9cm) of rain between Monday and very early Friday morning, and also did the job of recycling and cleaning up our hazy/dusty atmosphere.  Since yesterday we've started fresh and clean again with a brand new air mass.  The main event of the next few days will be a building and expanding ridge of high pressure to our west-southwest that will allow temperatures throughout all layers of the atmosphere to warm dramatically.  The last time I registered a temperature of 80ºF/27ºC was last Sunday, but we'll be pushing close to that number today, and should definitely rise well above it by tomorrow -- with temps a few degrees above normal for mid-May through at least the middle of next week.

Our atmosphere should be generally stable through Monday, but as always, we have to keep one eye on the mountains during the afternoon hours, and be aware of the risk of an isolated thundershower up there which could drift into town.  Otherwise, it looks like plenty of summer sunshine is on the way.  A couple of weak disturbances mid-week (Tue-Wed) could give us a slightly better chance of a shower or thunderstorm, with a turn to stability once again by the latter part of the week.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, May 15, 2015

big warm-up ahead... (pm.15.may.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 73.5F (23.1C)
Rainfall since 7am: none
24 hour rainfall: 0.25" (6mm)

Partly cloudy is the name of the game at sunset this evening, which has been the story actually for the last several days.  Once again today we saw a lot of variability between clouds and sun, though the sunshine won the majority of our daylight hours.  Rainfall was confined to the very early morning hours well before sunrise, but there was a bit of thunder rumbling to our northeast along the mountains for a little while during the late afternoon.  Temps today were pleasant, though well below normal for this time of year.

A broad upper-level low pressure circulation has been lingering over north India, and more specifically, Himachal Pradesh during the past 24 hours -- preventing us from busting out into our warming trend that we've been waiting for.  But right now, our atmosphere is in the process of a significant transformation, as much warmer air gets ready to surge in from the west-southwest over the weekend.  Apart from the risk of some isolated thunder development over the mountains to our north and east during the PM hours, we should be dealing with a fairly stable air mass between tomorrow and Monday, thanks to high pressure building in aloft.  Barring surprises, the thermometer is going to be making a major jump during the coming 48 hours or so -- taking us back above normal for mid-May.

As next week unfolds, we'll be seeing a typical summertime weather pattern with very warm temps and the risk of some isolated thunderstorm action during the afternoon or evening hours.  We're now moving into the warmest several weeks of the year for us, on average -- between roughly the 20th of May and the 20th of June.

Check tabs above for the forecast and other info.  There are also thousands of archived posts over the past five years located on the right side of the page.

the next pattern shift... (am.15.may.15)>

We're waking up to partly cloudy skies this morning, with the temperature hovering near 60ºF/16ºC.  There have been a couple of periods of thundershowers between late last evening and the wee hours of this morning -- but I've got just 0.25" (6mm) in the rain gauge to show for it.  The overnight low here in the upper part of town was 55.9F (13.3C).

A very slow-moving series of upper-level disturbance/circulation centers has been the dominant influencer of our weather scenario since Monday -- and I've recorded 1.55" (3.9cm) from the several periods of showers and thundershowers that have moved through during the week.  This morning's satellite pics show the last remaining circulation center parked just about right on top of us at the moment, with a continued very slow movement eastward today.  That means we still have to be aware of the risk of more isolated to widely scattered thundershower development for yet another day... in the midst of a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Temperatures should be just a bit warmer, but still a few degrees cooler than normal for mid-May.

If all goes according to plan, the new high pressure ridge waiting in the wings should start to push in from the west-southwest tomorrow (Sat), with dramatic warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere over the weekend into early next week.  Our temps should quickly rise above normal again by Sunday, with the warmest numbers of the season and the year possible on Monday.  However, there are also indications that we could see some mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development entering the picture, especially Tuesday into Wednesday.

The details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

typical may issues... (pm.14.may.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 75.2F (24.0C)
Rainfall: none

Although there are a few breaks in the overcast, we've got a lot of clouds around the area as the sun gradually sets this evening.  We could almost call it equal parts clouds and sun today -- but the sunshine was plentiful enough to give us a high temp exactly the same as yesterday's.  There have been isolated to widely scattered showers and some thundershowers in all directions this afternoon/evening, but nothing has affected us as of now.

What's left of the upper-level disturbance and circulation center affecting our weather for the past few days remains close to the Kashmir/Pakistan border this evening, as it continues to weaken.  Even so, there are some ominous-looking clusters of thundershowers close to the center of that circulation off to our west and northwest this evening... and if they don't dissipate quickly, we may catch some of that action during the overnight hours.  Our atmosphere will move another step in the direction of stabilization tomorrow (Fri), but I am still concerned about the potential of some mainly afternoon shower/thunder development over the mountains which could drift into town.  Keep that in mind.

By Saturday, we're going to see an aggressive move of a strong high pressure ridge to our southwest.  This should lead to a big jump in temperatures over the weekend into early next week, and keep us free and clear of rain development for the most part.  Of course the mountain thunder machine issues could wreck that -- but right now things are looking dry for the weekend.  We could see a wave or two of thunderstorms sometime between Monday night and Wednesday, with temps close to normal (or even a bit above) for mid-May.

Check out the tabs at the top of the page for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info of interest.

sun-cloud-shower mix... (am.14.may.15)>

It's pleasantly mild early this Thursday morning, with both patches of blue sky and patches of mid-level clouds.  Currently, it's 61.3F (16.3C) here at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center -- but I'm showing an overnight low of 59.2F (15.1C).  There may have been a couple of sprinkles of rain at some point overnight, but I have no additional measurable precipitation in the gauge to report.

This morning's satellite pics show the center of our upper-level circulation parked right along the west-central Kashmir border of Pakistan.  It's now very weak, but still contains some pockets of relatively colder air aloft, and enough dynamic energy to act upon the lingering moisture across our area once we get some daytime heating kicking in.  That means there is still a good chance of some isolated to widely scattered shower/thunder activity today -- though we'll see some sunshine and plenty of hours of dry weather as well.  An isolated mainly afternoon thundershower is not out of the question on Friday, either.

Major warming from the surface into the upper-levels of the atmosphere will set in over the weekend, as a new bubble of high pressure noses in from the southwest.  That should provide us with a generally stable air mass for a few days, while allowing temperatures to head back up to the warmest levels of the season and the year.  We could be heading above 86ºF/30ºC again by Sunday.  However, another chance of some thunderstorm action enters the picture by either late Monday or Tuesday.

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for specifics...

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

more fluctuations... (pm.13.may.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
High temp: 75.2F (24.0C)
Rainfall since 7am: trace
24 hour rainfall: 0.53" (1.3cm)

There are some clear patches out there at sunset this evening, but we could call it mostly cloudy.  It's been a day of highly variable weather conditions -- with several hours of sunshine, but also a couple of periods of cloudiness, gusty winds, thunder, and a few very light showers of rain this evening.  The sunshine was more abundant than anticipated though, which gave us a high temperature a few degrees above expectations.  Even so, we remain cooler than normal for the middle of May.

A large but weak upper-level circulation continues to spin across the western Himalayan region, with a pool of unseasonably cool air in the upper-atmosphere hovering over us.  This, along with a lingering batch of moisture, has kept us in a favorable position for scattered showers and thundershowers -- and will continue to keep us there for another 24 hours or so.  At the same time, there are already signs of some warming in the mid- and upper-levels just starting to appear, so our air mass will trend toward greater stability as we approach the end of the week.  That means we have another day or two of fluctuations between sun, clouds and possible thundershowers ahead of us.

A new ridge of summertime high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend, with a rapid and dramatic warm-up expected by Sunday into Monday.  We could shoot up to our highest temperatures of the season and the year by then, with a return to hazy, dusty sunshine.  A fast-moving disturbance could bring us a wave of thunderstorms on Tuesday, but it should stay very warm through perhaps the middle of next week or beyond.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

unstable period continues... (am.13.may.15)>

For the second night in a row, we've had significant rainfall here in McLeod Ganj.  My rain gauge is showing 0.53" (1.3cm) since last evening's report -- with most of that occurring between roughly 9pm and 1am.  I'm recording a low temp of 55.0F (12.8C), though currently we're hovering right around 62F (17C).  Our sky is partly cloudy at sunrise.

The center of a wobbling area of upper-level disturbances is over northern Pakistan this morning, and has been the 'driver' of our turbulent weather across northern India during the past 36 hours or so.  The big high pressure ridge which brought us very warm, stable and dry weather for many days is long gone, as much cooler air has established itself in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere -- and obviously here at the surface as well.  We've also got a rather moist air mass for this time of year sprawled across much of northwest India.  These conditions will remain with us today, and to a lesser extent tomorrow (Thu) as well.  That means there will continue to be scattered shower and thunderstorm development in our area during the coming 36 hours or so -- though we will likely see some periods of sun in between those bouts of thundershowers.  If we do get a couple of hours (or more) of sun, our temperatures will warm up nicely, but it's going to remain on the cool side of normal for this time of year... all the way through tomorrow.

The pattern will start changing dramatically again on Friday, as a new blast of warmer air comes in from the west.  There could still be an isolated afternoon thundershower on Friday, but overall, the atmosphere should trend toward greater stability over the weekend, along with a rapid return to very warm (and again above normal) temperatures.

Get the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.