the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Monday, May 18, 2015

coin tosses... (am.18.may.15)>

At the moment, we have partly cloudy skies -- but there has been so much variability overnight, with conditions changing almost from moment to moment.  We did have a few periods of thunder, very gusty winds and very light rain showers during the overnight hours, but my rain gauge is showing a paltry 0.02" (less than 1mm).  All bark and no bite, in terms of actually getting some noteworthy rainfall.  I'm recording a low temp of 62.2F (16.7C) which occurred during the most recent thunder/wind episode before dawn, but it's now close to 66F (19C).

The way this latest hot summertime air mass lurking just to our south has been interacting with the western Himalayan ranges these last few days has been befuddling.  There are a few times every year when I get frustrated and irritated as I look at all the data and computer model output, then compare it to what is actually going on and taking shape -- and this is definitely one of those times.  The big ridge of high pressure just to our south has not made the push northward that each and every run of the computer model data keeps projecting, while a lingering batch of moisture which the models had long ago dragged south and east of us remains sprawled out along the front ranges of the mountains.  All this to say -- we'll have to be braced for more variable cloud development in our neighborhood, along with the risk of an isolated, passing thundershower or two, in the midst of sunny breaks as well.  Sounds a bit like a toss of the coin, doesn't it?

There are still consistent signs of a major rise in temperatures, and a turn to more reliable sunshine as the week goes on, but my faith in the model guidance is near an all time low.  Let's see....

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.