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Monday, May 11, 2015

changes afoot... (am.11.may.15)>

We're dealing with more cloudiness this morning than we have in a long time -- we could call it mostly cloudy at sunrise, with lots of haze and dust in the air as well.  An area of thundershowers passed to our south overnight, and the outflow from that has cooled temperatures a few degrees, but delivered no rainfall here.  I'm recording a low (and current temp) of 65.3F (18.5C).

The slow and gradual changes we've been talking about the last several days are now well underway, as some upper-level energy continues trying to push in from the west.  At the same time, we've got a pool of cooler air aloft nudging in, and also a batch of moisture oozing northeastward from the Arabian Sea.  These are all factors we've been watching and anticipating since the middle of last week, and waiting to see whether or not we can get the first measurable rainfall of the month of May from this whole system.  There was quite a lot of scattered shower/thunder activity across northern India yesterday afternoon through the overnight hours, but all of it has managed to avoid us so far.  It's still looking like chances of a few periods of showers and/or thunderstorms will be on the increase during this Monday through Wednesday window, however, though computer models are not showing amounts to be much more than a half inch (1.3cm) in total.  Anything would be welcome... just to settle the dust if nothing else.

The risk of a thundershower lingers into Thursday, but then right now it seems like the atmosphere will return to a more stable phase as we head into next weekend.  Our temperatures will be somewhat cooler during the next three days or so -- but there are signs that we could be right back into borderline heatwave conditions as next week arrives.

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