Friday, May 8, 2015

a very slow pattern change... (am.08.may.15)>

It's hazy, but there's not a cloud to be seen just before sunrise on this Friday morning.  It's been another clear and totally uneventful night with no rainfall to report -- and a very mild overnight low of 68.0F (20.0C) here at my location in the upper part of town.

The massive ridge of summertime high pressure which has dominated the weather pattern across most of the northwest half of India this past week is showing signs of breaking down a bit -- starting later today.  The reason for this is an increasingly disturbed upper-level pattern easing in from the west, which will be accompanied by some slightly cooler temperatures aloft.  Additionally, there's an advancing batch of moisture-laden air which will be gradually spreading into our area by Sunday and Monday.  All of these factors will team up to bring us an increasing risk of at least some isolated to widely scattered shower/thunder development... initially over the mountains, but eventually over the lower elevations across northern India as well.

This turn of events will take place gradually over the course of the coming three or four days, with plenty of sunshine still likely, and temperatures which are going to remain above normal for the season.  In fact, both today and tomorrow (Sat), we could still make a run at setting a new high temperature mark for the season and the year.

Computer models are hinting at a shot at more significant rainfall during the Monday/Tuesday period, with some scattered thundershowers on Wednesday as well.  By that time, we could see a temporary cool down that could take us slightly below normal for the season, for a change.

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