the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Friday, January 31, 2014

jan/feb transition... (pm.31.jan.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8F (8.8C)
High temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
Precipitation: none

We have partly cloudy skies just after sunset on this final evening of January 2014.  We've ended the month with another in a streak of several very nice, mild, quiet and generally sunny days.  There were more thin high clouds in the area today than yesterday, but the sun wasn't hindered all that much -- supporting a high temp which was once again in the well-above-average category.  Humidity fluctuated between 35 and 45%.

A transition period will be getting underway as we begin a new month.  The upper-level pattern will begin a significant realignment during the next 24 hours or so, which is going to lead to an extended period of much more unsettled weather conditions during the first week to ten days (or more) of February.  The main instigator of this change will be a much colder air mass over central Asia which will force the main branch of the jet stream further south, and put us closer to the boundary line between arctic/continental and sub-tropical air masses.  Of course along that boundary line we will be susceptible to occasional storm development and perhaps some bouts of significant rain and/or snowfall.

The most imminent threat will be set off by an upper-level wave of energy pivoting from northern Iran to northern Pakistan between tomorrow and Monday.  Although I am really concerned about the amount of deep moisture this system will be able to tap into, computer models are forecasting 2-3cm (0.8 - 1.2") of rain and melted snow here along the leading edge of the Dhauladhars.  This should occur mainly between late Sunday night and early Tuesday morning.  The latest data doesn't put us in as favorable a position to pick up the most significant precipitation, but we'll have to carefully watch how things come together during the next 48 hours or so.

Colder air will settle into northern India early next week... with more potential for periods of rain and snow for several days thereafter.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

another nice one... (am.31.jan.14)>

It is totally clear again early on this Friday morning.  Temperatures remain quite mild for the season -- I'm recording a predawn low of 47.8F (8.8C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.  Humidity at sunrise is 35%.

It looks like the month of January is going to bow out quietly and without a fight.  A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across northern India, keeping a good amount of sunshine in the forecast, along with temperatures that are well above normal.  But that has been the case the last few days, so we're used to it -- and getting spoiled as well.  We'll have to watch for some potential cloud development later in the day, and then a better chance of some clouds spreading in from the west and southwest on Saturday, otherwise there's not much to worry about as we cross over into February.

Thereafter, there are some things to be concerned about.  We've got a complicated weather system which will be developing way off to our west in the vicinity of the southern Caspian Sea and northern Iran by tomorrow, which will rapidly push eastward into the western Himalayan region by late Sunday.  There will be some moisture pulled northward from the Arabian Sea into northern India by late Sunday night, and with the arrival of a strong pulse of upper-level energy and accompanying colder air aloft, widespread precipitation is expected to explode across Punjab, Himachal and Jammu & Kashmir.  The latest data shows our best chance of significant rainfall (with snow in the higher elevations) between very late Sunday night and early Tuesday morning -- that means Monday will probably bear the brunt of the effects.  We are running behind in terms of our winter precipitation and mountain snow pack, so if this storm performs, it will help the situation.

Check CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

changes down the road... (pm.30.jan.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 44.8F (7.1C)
High temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
Precipitation: none

We have clear skies after sunset this evening, at the end of yet another fantastic mid-winter day.  Apart from just the slightest amount of cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon, the sunshine was fully in control -- providing us with yet another day of above average temperatures for the tail-end of January.  Humidity remained right around 40% for most of the day.

An area of high pressure in the upper-atmosphere is located over northwest India at the moment, and will remain our main weather feature for one more day.  It is keeping things calm and stable and nearly totally cloudless... in addition to allowing our temps to stay a few degrees above the norm.

The significant change in the weather pattern that I've been alluding to for several days is getting closer and closer, and it still looks like we'll have to be braced for some wet and colder conditions shortly after the arrival of February.  A strong wave of upper-level energy is being forecast by the computer models to be directly over the middle of the Caspian Sea by mid-day Saturday, and is still expected to move east-southeastward into Afghanistan and northern Pakistan by Monday into Monday evening.  There is an impressive batch of cold air which will be moving into central Asia in its wake, while a tongue of moisture gets drawn northward ahead of it.  Since this system is still at least three full days away from having much of an effect on us, plenty can change, but it definitely looks like an interesting scenario.

Although there could be some widely scattered showers beforehand, the best chance of significant precipitation should occur between late Sunday night and early Tuesday.  Computer models are projecting about 1.5" (3.5cm) of rain and/or melted snow in our area during that time frame, but of course that's a very preliminary estimate at this point.  It's way too early to say where the rain/snow line might be, but at this point it seems that it would be above McLeod.

The CURRENT FORECAST details for the next five days are on the tab at the top of the page.

winter excellence... (am.30.jan.14)>

The sky is 100% clear at sunrise this morning.  I'm recording a low temp of 44.8F (7.1C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.  Humidity has been hovering in the 35-40% range.

We've now had a full seven days without so much as a drop of rain or a flake of snow or any trace of moisture of any kind -- and it looks likely that we'll finish out the month of January on this very dry note.  The upper-level flow is flat and devoid of any kind of significant disturbances, and it will stay that way for the next 48 to 60 hours or so.  Although there are no clouds whatsoever anywhere near us at the moment, we could see some patchy cloud development in the midst of the sunshine later today and/or tomorrow -- but probably not enough to spoil this run of very fine mid-winter weather.  Temperatures have been consistently above normal for the season, and will stay in that range as we transition into February.

I hear talk around town about winter being over, etc... and that always makes me wince this time of year.  It's a bit similar to hearing talk in late August about the monsoon being over.  We do have some significant changes lurking just around the corner that will return us to wet and colder weather by early next week.  A strong batch of upper-level energy will be dropping east-southeastward across the Caspian Sea and into Afghanistan and northern Pakistan between Saturday and Monday, and that's going to set the wheels in motion for storm development all across the western Himalayan region.  Currently it appears that our best chance of rain (with snow not far above) will occur between Sunday night and mid-day Tuesday.  I'm watching each new set of computer model data/projections as it comes in, and will keep you updated.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

final days of jan... (pm.29.jan.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 47.3F (8.5C)
High temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
Precipitation: none

Other than some high clouds off to the southeast and a bit of haze in the air, it is mostly clear just past sunset this evening.  We started off the morning with very mild low temperatures for this time of year, but a fresh surge of slightly cooler air offset the sunshine to keep temps from rising all that much today.  Still -- it was milder than average for an end-of-January day, with a mix of sunshine and occasional high clouds.  Humidity was generally in the 35-50% range.

A couple of weak disturbances aloft have been hanging around northern India the last couple of days, but they are now scooting off to the east as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for the next two days or so.  Disturbance or no disturbance -- it makes very little difference, because we have a very dry and stable air mass in place which has and will continue to prevent any precipitation from occurring across our area.  It's going to stay quiet and calm with sunshine and an occasional wave of clouds as we approach the weekend.  Temperatures will remain well above normal and very pleasant for the season.

Next on the agenda is a developing storm system which still looks on track for the first part of next week.  By Saturday there will be a strengthening upper-level disturbance/circulation over the Caspian Sea which will move eastward to northern Pakistan by Monday.  There is some very cold central Asian air which will be pulled into its core, as at least a modest amount of sub-tropical moisture gets drawn northward ahead of it.  The computer models are going crazy with some moderate to heavy precipitation developing over Himachal and adjoining parts of northern India by Sunday night -- continuing through most of Tuesday.

This system is still several days away, so we'll have to keep an eye on the developing upper-air pattern, the potential involvement of significant low-level moisture, and how the models interpret all this.  At this point, the best thing to do is monitor the latest developments -- especially if you have travel plans early next week.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specs on the tab above.

the calm continues... (am.29.jan.14)>

Some patchy high clouds are lingering around the area just before sunrise this morning.  It's been a mild night -- I'm recording a low temp of 47.7F (8.7C), which is way above normal for this time of year and the mildest of this month in my record books.  Humidity is currently 37%, and there has been no precipitation overnight.

A couple of weak, disorganized upper-level circulations continue to wobble across northern India -- stirring up these patches of high cloudiness.  Some slightly cooler air is expected to filter into the area today, but not cool enough to actually bring our temperatures back down to where they should be at the end of January.  It will remain a few degrees above average every day right into the weekend, as we transition into February.  Otherwise we should remain in this vein of calm and quiet and basically uneventful weather until some dramatic changes begin to appear by Sunday.

Detailed computer model data for early next week has not yet settled on a very consistent solution on the specifics of a developing storm system which will bring those changes to northern India.  Very cold air is gathering in central Asia, as a strong upper-level circulation develops in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea by Saturday.  As those features converge on the western Himalayas, there is also expected to be some moisture drawn northward into the circulation.  We could start to see some shower development by late Sunday, with more significant rain/snow possible on Monday into Tuesday -- at least the way the data looks right now.  There will be all kinds of readjustments as those computer models continue to crunch the new data every 6 hours, so we still have lots of time to watch how it all comes together.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

very easy-going... (pm.28.jan.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
Precipitation: none

We've just had a beautiful sunset, at the end of a rather spectacular late January day.  Considering the time of year, we've had quite a string of really nice days... and today could have been the best of them all.  Although there were occasional patches of high clouds from time to time, the sunshine was definitely in control, and that brought us about 1 degree (F) short of the warmest day of the month which occurred way back on the 3rd.  Humidity has been in the 32-52% range.

There is currently a very weak upper-level circulation wobbling its way across northwest India, and that has been the culprit responsible for the occasional high clouds today.  This system will remain in the area through most of Wednesday, so we'll continue to see a few patches of clouds here and there, even if there's not enough moisture to stir up even a random light shower or two.  The rest of the week will be dominated by a totally featureless/benign flow in the upper-levels, leaving us with very little to watch or worry about.  There will be some slight fluctuations in temperatures from day to day, but it looks like we'll remain at least a few degrees above normal as the transition from January to February approaches.

For a few days now I've already been giving a bit of a 'heads up' for a potential storm system developing by Sunday into Monday of next week.  Yes, this is still a bit far into the future, but with this really nice weather lately, it's easy to get complacent and assume that winter is over.  At the moment, Monday through Wednesday look to be wet and turning much colder -- and of course there will be lots of snow in the higher elevations as well, if this storm actually shows up.  Check back here for the latest developments...

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

temps above the norm... (am.28.jan.14)>

High, thin cirrus clouds are on the increase as we approach sunrise, otherwise it is a beautiful and mild morning.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town has been 46.6F (8.1C), and there has been no precipitation since last report -- and none during the past five days.  The humidity reading is currently 35%.

The latest very weak upper-level disturbance/circulation is moving into northwest India this morning, and satellite pics show a few areas of high clouds in association with it.  As this system drifts across the area today into early Wednesday, we'll have to deal with the occasional high clouds in the midst of sunshine, but any shower action remains very unlikely.  Depending on the competition between sun and high clouds today, we could see the mildest temperatures of the entire month of January, as the high approaches 58F (14.4C).

There's still nothing major going on as we head into the latter half of the week and the first part of the weekend, but then things will start to become active again.  A very large, complex upper-level system is being projected to come together just west of us by Sunday -- which will increase the threat of an extended period of rain and/or snow in our area during most of the first half of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab at the top of the page.

Monday, January 27, 2014

tranquility... (pm.27.jan.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2F (6.8C)
High temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
Precipitation: none

There are a few traces of leftover cumulus clouds along the Dhauladhars as sunset approaches this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  It has been a stellar late January day, with lots of sunshine -- apart from that modest build-up of mountain cumulus during the afternoon hours.  The high temp was right on target, and it certainly felt nice, I'm sure we'd all agree.

The upper-air pattern remains basically benign, with a weak ridge of high pressure in control, and only a couple of very weak disturbances wiggling and rippling along between the Middle East and the western Himalayan region.  The average moisture content of this atmosphere is way below what would be necessary to fuel any significant precipitation, even if there was a chance that one of these disturbances might strengthen a bit.  Basically, that means we can expect several more days of this very pleasant, dry and quiet weather as we finish out the month.  It looks like there will be very little chance to come up with any accumulating snow before January bows out -- making it the least snowy since 2010 or before.  I need to do some digging through my records to verify.

Temperatures will be the most interesting thing to keep an eye on during the rest of this week, as we remain above normal and perhaps even push that magical 60F (15.6C) mark, though I think that might be stretching it a bit.

This evening's computer model data continues to look promising for some kind of storm system developing in our neighborhood as early as Sunday, and lasting into the middle of next week.  A seriously cold air mass is being forecast to approach from the northwest in conjunction with increasing moisture from the south.  It's a long long long way off -- but fun to watch nonetheless.

The CURRENT FORECAST specs can be found on the tab above.

mild sunshine... (am.27.jan.14)>

We have clear skies at sunrise on this Monday morning, and the humidity is 37%.  I've recorded a low temp of 44.2F (6.8C) which occurred within the last hour or so, and there has been no precipitation overnight.

One of the most calm and quiet periods of this winter season continues on.  The upper-air charts this week continue to show a couple of very weak disturbances riding through on the westerly flow aloft -- but it still looks like all they'll be able to do is stir up the occasional round of mainly mid- and high level cloudiness.  Otherwise sunshine should be our dominant feature, with very little chance of any rain/snow during the next five days.  Although average high temperatures rise just slightly above 50F (10C) by the start of February, it's looking like we'll be at least a few degrees warmer than that each day this week -- with even a shot at getting into the 58-60F (14-16C) range on one or two days.

Extended range computer model data is trying to come up with a solution for some kind of developing system approaching northern India by very late Saturday night or Sunday.  At this stage, there is a lot of inconsistency as to what may or may not happen -- but the bottom line is that we could return to some wet and much colder weather not long after the arrival of the new month.  Stay tuned.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

not much to watch... (pm.26.jan.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
Precipitation: none

We're wrapping up a fantastic Republic Day Sunday with mostly clear skies just after sunset.  Although there were a few high clouds this morning and a bit of cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon, there was definitely more sunshine around today than yesterday, boosting our high temp close to 55F (13C) for one of only a few times this month.  It was one of those days when it still felt a bit chilly in the shade, but downright warm in the direct sun.

I have nothing very new to report.  We're still in for an extended period of quiet, dry and unseasonably mild weather which should last throughout this week, and possibly beyond.  There's no huge area of high pressure expected to build in and provide us with unlimited sunshine day after day -- but neither is there any evidence of anything other than a couple of very weak disturbances which will bring us a few waves of cloudiness from time to time.  Unless one of those ripples in the upper-atmosphere ends up becoming deeper and stronger than currently projected, there will probably be very little chance of any precipitation at all for several days in a row.  This is actually looking like the longest stretch of totally dry weather since the middle of December.  Although January had been much drier than normal up until the middle of last week, we were still getting at least some random sprinkles of rain or a couple of snow flakes or a bit of sleet every two or three days.

The average high temp for the last few days of January is slowing inching its way back to around 50F (10C), but it will be a few degrees warmer than that most likely -- with a chance that we could nudge 60F during some afternoon sunshine between Tuesday and Friday or Saturday.

Keep track of the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

an extended break... (am.26.jan.14)>

We have some streaks of high, thin cirrus clouds across the area again this morning at sunrise.  It's a very mild morning -- I'm recording a low temp of 46.6F (8.1C) -- and humidity is low at 32%.  There has been no precipitation since last report.

There's still very little happening on the weather scene, which should keep our quiet, dry and mild conditions going for most if not all of this coming week.  A very weak disturbance in the upper-levels is lingering over northern India right now, stirring up that bit of high cloudiness, but it still doesn't look like there will be any shower activity in association with it -- except in the highest elevations well to our north.  By tomorrow that disturbance will be out of here, leaving us with a flat west-to-east flow aloft, with a bit of high pressure ridging as well.  That means sunshine and some off-and-on clouds will be the rule all the way into next weekend.

To go along with the calm atmosphere, temperatures will be rising well above normal for the waning days of January.  In fact, I may need to nudge my forecast temps upward for this week -- and I'm starting to wonder if we might approach 60F (15.6C) by Tuesday or Wednesday.  All of this will be a nice break in the winter program -- but extended range data is looking a bit dicey by about the 3rd of February, with a return to wet and colder weather.

The CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Saturday, January 25, 2014

mid-winter pleasantness... (pm.25.jan.14)>

Saturday's stats: 

Low temp: 43.9F (6.6C)
High temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
Precipitation: none

It's very close to perfection for a January evening.  We have just a few streaks of high clouds here and there at sunset, with the temperature settling back into the upper 40s(F) -- just below 10C -- after another day that was on the plus side of normal for the season.  Although we had a consistent period of high clouds until the early afternoon which limited the sunshine's influence, those clouds broke up/moved out quickly around 2pm, leaving us with a very bright and sunny remainder of the day.  Humidity ranged from about 40 to 65%.

A weak disturbance in the upper-level flow stirred up that high cloudiness earlier today, and we'll have another one of those drifting through here later tonight and Sunday.  Some mainly high clouds will probably be the only effect once again, since there's not enough moisture in this air mass to combine with the weak energy aloft to produce any precipitation in our area.  A few scattered rain and snow showers will be possible in the higher elevations north of us, however.

Our weather pattern looks quiet, dry and uneventful for most of the coming week, despite another very weak disturbance or two stirring up some high clouds from time to time to compete with the winter sun.  We should have temperatures running above average for the final week of January, so it will be very pleasant compared to what we could be experiencing this time of year.

It's extremely hard to bank on computer model output for anything beyond a few days, but the latest data runs are showing an interesting-looking storm developing over the western Himalayas and northern India during the first week of February.  That's the next event to focus on.

Specifics for the next five days can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

sun thru high clouds... (am.25.jan.14)>

There's quite a lot of high cloudiness across the area as the sun rises this morning.  The overnight low temp was 43.9F (6.6C) here at my location, and there has been no precipitation.  The humidity reading is 43% at the start of the day.

A brisk and consistent west-to-east flow in the upper atmosphere is carrying a very weak disturbance into the western Himalayan region this morning, which will provide us with some periods of mainly mid- and high cloudiness today into Sunday.  There looks to be a little better chance of some scattered light rain and/or snow showers well to our north, but all the data points to nothing more than perhaps a brief isolated shower anywhere close to us.  The average moisture content of our air mass -- from top to bottom -- continues to decrease in the wake of our storm system earlier in the week, and that should keep the risk of measurable precipitation very low for several days.

We're now actually reaching the end of the time of year (January 12-25) with the coldest average temperatures, according to historical records for the Dharamsala area.  As long as the sun will cooperate, we should be well into the 50s(F) as we move into next week, which is above the norm.  I'm also keeping an eye on the extended range data, which suggests some kind of storm development during the first week of February -- so we shouldn't assume that our risk of snow for this season has come to an end.!

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, January 24, 2014

non-problematic... (pm.24.jan.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 43.6F (6.4C)
High temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
Precipitation: none

There are only a few clouds in the process of dissipating near the mountains just after sunset, otherwise it's mostly clear and very pleasant for a late January evening.  It is interesting to note that we've gained back a lot of evening daylight in the five weeks since the winter solstice.  Sunshine was definitely in control today, but still there was a good amount of cloud development over the mountains -- starting just before noon and continuing through most of the PM hours.  Temperatures were quite a bit milder, as expected, as we climbed back above the average for this time of year.

The weather charts are looking about as dull and inactive as they've been in a while during the next several days, which should allow us to close out this first month of 2014 calmly and peacefully.  Although there will be a few very weak disturbances in the upper-level flow passing across northern India, there will be very little moisture for them to tap into, and all of the available computer model data is keeping things very dry for us.  I think I'll even remove the mention of a random shower from Sunday's forecast, though it does look like there will be a considerable amount of mid- and high cloudiness at times this weekend.  If we can get a few hours of sunshine on any given day, temperatures are going to be very pleasant for the season -- and a few degrees above normal.

Barring any dramatic readjustments in the coming days, we may not get another significant storm system until towards the middle of the first week of February.  But of course the overall pattern could easily morph and change in a matter of just a few days... so keep checking in for regular updates.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab at the top of the page.

temps on the rise... (am.24.jan.14)>

Apart from some random small patches of high clouds, we have clear skies this morning.  It is calm and quiet and not too cold -- the overnight low has been 43.6F (6.4C), with no precipitation since last report.  Humidity is 43%.

It still looks like we are in for an extended inactive phase of weather to close out the month of January.  The flow in the upper/jet stream levels will be basically flat from west to east during the coming week, with only a few very weak ripples drifting through from time to time.  That means we should alternate between nice sunshine and a few periods of mainly mid- and high cloudiness, with very little chance of any significant precipitation.  I'm keeping a mention of a random shower on Sunday, as perhaps the most potent upper-level 'ripple' should move across northern India then -- but at this point it doesn't look like much to worry about.

Temperatures should be back above 50F (10C) today, with highs remaining well above that threshold for several days in a row.  Unless there are some shake-ups in the overall weather pattern (which of course is always possible), we're in line for a rather long period of uneventful but pleasant mid-winter conditions.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

quiet times ahead... (pm.23.jan.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 37.0F (2.8C)
High temp: 48.7F (9.3C)
Precipitation since midnight: trace
Precipitation total since Wed morning: 3.25" (8.3cm)

A quiet and peaceful evening is underway -- very different from what was taking place this time yesterday.  There are just a few clouds lingering around, but it is becoming mostly clear as darkness descends.  Full sunshine this morning afforded an exceptional view of the fresh snow on the mountains not far above town, but we did end up getting some patchy cloudiness by mid-day, thanks to a little lingering moisture combined with some serious melting/evaporation of that snow.  My high temp in the upper part of town ended up being very close to the average for this stage of January.

We had been running very very far below normal in terms of January precipitation until yesterday's 7-8 hour period of heavy rain (and snow mixed in for awhile) brought us to within about an inch (2.5cm) of the average monthly total.  Although we still haven't managed to get a good accumulating snowfall in McLeod proper this winter season, heavy snow piled up along the mountain slopes above.  Today I have heard reports of 1-4" in the Dharamkot area, between 6 and 10" around Galu Temple, and at least 1.5ft of snow near Magic View Cafe on the way to Triund.  Have received no reports about what happened at Triund itself, since things are shut down up there these days.

The way the latest weather charts and data are looking, we may not see another significant storm system before February arrives in another 8-9 days.  It looks very quiet and uneventful, with only a few very weak disturbances expected to ripple through northern India on a brisk westerly flow in the upper-atmosphere.  The moisture surge in advance of yesterday's system is now long gone, so our air mass should remain on the dry side for the next week at least.  There is a slight chance of a random shower at some point with one of these weak disturbances, otherwise a back-and-forth between sunshine and occasional clouds will be the rule -- with temperatures returning to the above normal range for the season.  Looking pretty painless for awhile...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specs on the tab at the top of the page.

lots of white above... (am.23.jan.14)>

It is mostly clear just before sunrise this morning -- the temperature is 39.1F (3.9C), and humidity is 70%.  The low temp since midnight has been 37.0F (2.8C), and my rain gauge shows a whopping total of 3.25" (8.3cm) of precipitation (rain and melted snow).  Nearly 3" (7.6cm) of that occurred between 5pm and midnight!  A quick look out the window early this morning shows that the snow line ended up just barely above McLeod Ganj, pretty much as expected.

I woke up around 2:25am and looked out to see a clear sky and a bright moon -- so there was definitely a very sharp and dramatic back-side to our storm system.  Once the last batch of precipitation moved through, it took most of the cloudiness with it as well.  Other than the fresh white snow on the hills, there's not much lingering evidence of yesterday's action.  I find it amazing that my total precipitation almost exactly matches the projections of the most aggressive of all the available computer model data.  When I first saw a bull's eye of 3.2"/8cm painted basically right on top of us this time yesterday morning as I was going through the data, I was flabbergasted.  But that's indeed what we got!

It will be awhile before snowfall reports start coming in, but a basic 10:1 ratio for snow:rain would imply that 2-3 feet of new snow is on the slopes above us.  Excellent news for everyone.  And as a side note -- isn't it amazing that we made it through the last 24 hours without a power cut??

Moving forward... it looks like we'll lapse back into a generally quiet and uneventful weather pattern during the coming several days at least, and perhaps all the way through the end of the month.  Although there will be a few minor ripples in the upper-level flow, there are currently no significant disturbances showing up on the weather charts, with the moisture content of our air mass expected to be quite low.  Temperatures are seasonably cold this morning, but we should be quickly rising above normal for late January as the weekend arrives.

Get CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

rainfall materializes... (pm.22.jan.14)>

*Update @ 8:58pm... We're now approaching the high-end of all those computer model projections -- I have 2.48" (6.3cm) of rain/melted snow in my rain gauge.  Still some snow mixed with the rain up here, and lots of slippery slush on the terrace.  Current temp: 37.4C (3.0C).

*Update @ 8:30pm... Still raining quite heavily, with some random snowflakes mixed in.  But -- the temp is now up to 38.5F (3.6C), which means any snow that is falling is melting fast.  Will check the rain gauge again when I feel brave enough to venture out.

*Update @ 7:38pm... It's 35.6F (2.0C) at my house on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center and Tushita.  I have rain occasionally mixed with some big fat snow flakes, and my tiled terrace is very slippery with about a half inch of icy slush.  The rain gauge shows 1.82" (4.6cm) of rain/melted snow.  Not sure if the temperature will drop much more, but if it does, there will be snow accumulation at least in the upper part of town.

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 35.4F (1.9C) -- around 7:00pm
High temp: 50.7F (10.4C) -- around 8:00am
Precipitation: 1.82" (4.6cm) -- as of 7:30pm (update to follow)

We've had a good shot of moderate to heavy rainfall this evening, and it's still raining moderately and steadily as I type.  There were some very light rain showers starting around 8:45am, but the showers became gradually more frequent and more substantial over the course of the day.  The total rainfall as of late afternoon was already more than we had received for the entire month of January, and of course there's been a lot more added to that during the past hour or two.  Today's high temp was a brief occurrence during gusty winds around 8:00am, otherwise it's been in the 40-45F (4-7C) range for most of the day.

Well I am very relieved that we've finally broken the January jinx that had kept us from being able to get any decent precipitation this month.  It turns out that most of the data has been pretty much on target this time around.  The axis of the upper-level disturbance driving all this action is now centered in extreme northern Rajasthan -- with a very deep and rich fetch of subtropical moisture flowing northward ahead of it.  The wind vectors in different layers of the atmosphere have to be aligned just right to get heavy precipitation development in our mountainous terrain, but it seems we are hitting the jackpot with this one.

The one thing we are missing is a batch of cold enough air to transform all this liquid into frozen form.  We'll still have to be on guard overnight, as some colder air moves in aloft, and the lower atmosphere gradually cools in response to this saturation and heavier precipitation --  there is at least a reasonable chance that we could see a turnover to snow somewhere close to our elevation.  But definitely the snow is already piling up well below Triund this evening.

This system will weaken considerably as it moves east-northeast late tonight into early tomorrow, and it looks likely that precipitation will pretty much come to an end during the morning hours.  We'll probably even see some clearing before Thursday is finished.

It's looking relatively calm -- and milder -- as we move into the weekend.  But in the meantime, we have more important things to watch during the next 12-18 hours.  Stay tuned for updates, and check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab at the top of the page.

potentially wild wednesday... (am.22.jan.14)>

*Update @ 3:55pm... The rain has increased a bit in intensity during the past hour.  It's very dark and foggy here in my part of town.  Occasionally gusty winds and even some rumbles of thunder recently.

*Update @ 2:50pm... The off and on mainly light rain is back 'on' again at the moment.  My rain gauge shows 0.24" (6mm), which isn't a lot -- but it's nearly as much as the entire monthly total up until today.  Current temp: 42.1F (5.6C).  The snow line remains well above.

*Update @ 9:17am...  Been getting some steady light rain since about 8:45am, but still nothing very dramatic.  The temp has dropped to 42.6F (5.9C).

We have totally overcast skies at sunrise this morning, with a couple of random sprinkles in the vicinity and some gusty winds which have just picked up.  Those few brief showers last evening ended up being no more than that -- few and brief -- and I have just 0.01" (less than 1mm) in the rain gauge to show for it.  The temperature at my location in the upper part of town has been more or less steady since around midnight, and I'm recording a low of 45.1F (7.3C).  Humidity is currently 45%.

Without exception, the various sets of computer model data this morning are showing a very healthy period of rainfall for our area during the coming 24 hours.  But as you know, technology has let us down a few times recently, so though I want to believe what I am seeing on the computer screen, I'd rather see it and feel it in tangible/material form.

At any rate... the 'engine' of this latest storm system in the upper-levels is centered just west of the Rajasthan border in central Pakistan.  It is expected to move slowly east-northeastward, arriving in Punjab between midnight and sunrise tomorrow morning.  This upper-level system itself is not very dynamic, and will weaken further as it approaches, but what all the computer model data and algorithms are picking up on is the copious amounts of sub-tropical moisture which have been drawn northward in the counter-clockwise circulation ahead of it.  With mid-level winds from the south-southeast, and upper-level winds from the southwest, there will be some impressive lifting of that moisture here along the leading edge of the mountains, bringing us fairly widespread precipitation.  Projected amounts range from around 1.5cm to (gulp) nearly 8cm (0.7-3.2"), which is an insanely wide range within the data, obviously.

My gut instinct is that we'll remain too warm for snow here in McLeod, despite the projection of a freezing level hovering very near our elevation by tonight.  However, if there is development of significant precipitation around here, some heavy snowfall amounts are quite likely just up-mountain.  We'll have to watch it carefully as the day unfolds.

So there you have the meteorological mumbo-jumbo -- now we'll see if we're in for something interesting, or if it's going to be another flop.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

something substantial?... (pm.21.jan.14)>

*Update @ 7:02pm... There have been a couple of moderate rain showers during the past 15 minutes or so, with some gusty winds as well.  The festivities are kicking off on time or even a bit earlier than expected, for a change.

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
High temp: 56.1F (13.4C)
Precipitation: trace (*update to follow)

The sky is dark and threatening just after sunset this evening, and we've even had some brief sprinkles of rain since around 5pm.  The sunshine was more prevalent than expected from the mid-morning until just after noon, however, and that boosted our high temp into the well above normal range for the second day in a row.  Clouds rapidly thickened up again during the afternoon, and the temp dropped several degrees very quickly in response.

We're just now starting to feel the effects of our next disturbance/storm system, as the center of its circulation eases very slowly across southern Pakistan.  This system's snail's pace movement has allowed plenty of time for lots of moisture from the Arabian Sea to get drawn northward in the south-southwesterly flow ahead of it.  And that could end up being the difference between what happens during the next 36 hours, and what has happened with all the previous storm systems this month.  I'm surprised about the consensus of all the latest computer model data -- showing a fairly widespread area of 1-3cm (0.4-1.2") of rain across most of Himachal Pradesh between tonight and Thursday morning -- but keeping in mind the fact that we've fallen far short of projected precip totals with each and every disturbance that has passed through here this month.

The upper-level circulation will be moving across northern Rajasthan and Punjab by tomorrow night, and if all of this deep moisture is solidly in place by that time, we stand a very good chance of seeing the most rain and/or snow around here since New Year's Eve.  Right now it would appear that the rain/snow line might hover just above the immediate McLeod area, but as always, we'll have to monitor the situation moment by moment... if and when the steady precipitation starts to fall.

It looks like things will dry out and calm down quickly by Thursday afternoon, with a quick temperature rebound as the weekend arrives.

Check out the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

tracking the next one... (am.21.jan.14)>

Another mild early morning... I'm recording an overnight low of 45.1F (7.3C), and it's currently 47.5F (8.6C).  There's still a lot of high cloudiness around, but it's quite thin, which should allow at least a bit of sunshine through, here at the start of the day.  Humidity is 35%, and there has been no precipitation.

No two storm systems are exactly alike, and it looks like the one on the way during the middle of this week will have some different tricks up its sleeve.  The upper-level low pressure circulation itself has barely moved overnight -- and remains over southwestern Pakistan.  Due to its very slow movement, it has already begun to tap into some deep moisture over the Arabian Sea -- drawing it northward into Gujarat and Rajasthan.  All data this morning is showing that there will be plenty of moisture in place here along the front slopes of the north Indian Himalayas by the time the upper-level circulation begins to move in by early tomorrow (Wed) morning.  It is always anyone's guess as to what mountain micro-climate wild cards might be thrown into the mix, but it's looking better for us to pick up some significant rainfall on Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

One indicator of the projected freezing level if/when the atmosphere achieves full saturation even looks favorable for a period of snow very close to our elevation -- especially Wednesday night.  So -- here we go again with another chance to try get some appreciable rain and/or snow to add to our very paltry January precipitation totals thus far.

Of course the much milder temperatures we've enjoyed just recently will be replaced by more seasonably cold temps, especially if we actually come up with an extended period of rain/snow.  But it still looks like all of this will be over by late Thursday, with a return to milder weather by the start of the weekend.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Monday, January 20, 2014

future prospects... (pm.20.jan.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2F (6.8C)
High temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Precipitation: none

The western sky is full of fiery oranges, reds, pinks and purples just after sunset this evening, thanks to the considerable amount of high cirrus clouds across the area.  It's been a really nice mid-winter's day, and my high temp in the upper part of town was the third warmest of the month (behind the 3rd and the 13th).  Temperatures like these are about 5-6F (3C) above average for the middle of January.  Apart from the scattered high cloudiness, there was plenty of sunshine, and humidity hovered around 40-50%.

The ridge of calm and stable high pressure which has been dominating northern India for the past couple of days is going to give way to our next upper-level disturbance by late tomorrow (Tues).  Right now the center of that low pressure circulation is just easing into southwestern Pakistan, and will move very very slowly east-northeastward during the coming 24-36 hours.  As I've been mentioning, the dynamic energy associated with this system is not impressive at all, but due to its slow movement, the counter-clockwise circulation is going to have plenty of time to draw a good amount of moisture northward ahead of it.  Computer model data is kind of all over the place in terms of projected precipitation -- from barely a trace to way over 2-3cm (around 1") in our area between late tomorrow night and mid-day Thursday.

Our risk of rain showers will begin during the wee hours of Wednesday morning, with the best chance of getting some significant rains during the day Wednesday into Thursday morning.  As of now, it appears that this air mass will be too warm for snow at our elevation, but if the precipitation really does get going this time, there will be some moderate to heavy snowfall above roughly 2200m (7200ft).  Of course we've been robbed a couple of times this month already, so I'll be in a very skeptical mood about all of this until I see something tangible materializing (!).

Check all the specifics for the coming five days on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

mega-mild monday... (am.20.jan.14)>

There are some thin patches of high clouds dotting the sky at sunrise this morning, otherwise it is mostly clear and quite mild.  I'm recording an overnight low of 44.2F (6.8C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.  The current humidity reading is 35%.

A nice healthy ridge of high pressure is in control across most of northwest India, and is expected to hold on today and into most of Tuesday as well.  There is a bubble of unseasonably mild air in association with it -- extending from the surface into the higher levels of the atmosphere.  Today's high temp may end up being the warmest of the month thus far, which will certainly be welcome after our few bone-chilling days recently.  We'll just have to keep on eye on the patchy high cloudiness, and hope the sunshine retains the upper hand as the day wears on.

Our next upper-level disturbance is now over southeastern Iran, and will be ever-so-slowly making its way toward northern India over the course of the coming 48 hours.  As far as vigorous, dynamic systems go, this is not one of them -- but it will be a slow-mover, and there is expected to be a fairly impressive flow of moisture returning northward ahead of it.  Considering our inability to pick up hardly any significant precipitation this month, i am hesitant to say that this system will be any different.  But at this stage, the data is pointing to a modest amount of rain around here on Wednesday into early Thursday, and snow in the mountains above...  so we get to go through this again and see if we can get luckier this time.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

easy to handle... (pm.19.jan.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 38.7F (3.7C)
High temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
Precipitation: none

Patches of mountain clouds are dissipating this evening, just as a few thin, high clouds appear on the western horizon.  We got to enjoy some stunningly gorgeous mid-January weather this morning into the early afternoon, thanks to lots of sun and temperatures rising above 50F (10C).  However, there was rapid development of low cloudiness here along the front slopes of the mountains by 2:00pm, which led to a couple of hours of grey and cloudy skies before things started clearing out again as late afternoon turned to evening.

We'll be making the transition into the latter one-third of January very soon, but we've still yet to get anything even remotely resembling a genuine winter storm brewing.  Of course there is plenty of time left -- as there have been some major snow-producing storms around here all the way into the first half of February, and lots of snow up towards upper Dharamkot and Galu Temple as late as the very beginning of March.  Still, things have been fairly uneventful this year, and there is nothing on the weather charts suggesting any dramatic changes in our near future.

There is another upper-level disturbance on the way for the mid-week period, however.  It is now centered over southern Iran, and should ripple across northern India between Tuesday night and mid-day Thursday.  One set of computer model data is showing some significant rainfall for us during that period, but others are keeping the precipitation rather light and widely scattered -- as we've already experienced several times this month.

In general, our air mass is going to be on the mild side for this time of year, but an extended period of clouds and potential rainfall would bring temporarily colder temps -- were that to happen during the middle of this week.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

return of some sun... (am.19.jan.14)>

*Update @ 10:02am... Gorgeous sunshine out there, with no evidence of any cloud/fog development at the moment.  Still a little leery about losing this sun this afternoon, though.  Let's see..

It is absolutely clear at sunrise this Sunday morning, although there are some patches of fog evident in the valleys well below us.  I'm recording an overnight low of 38.7F (3.7C), but the temp is up to 41F (5C) as of now.  There was no precipitation overnight, leaving us with a paltry 24hr total of 0.02" (less than 1mm) from yesterday's drizzle.  The humidity this morning is 50%.

Robust warming is occurring in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, as a ridge of high pressure continues to build across northern India in the wake of yesterday's system.  We should have a fairly stable atmosphere both today and Monday, but with some lingering moisture and potential inversion layer, it is possible that some low clouds and fog could develop toward the afternoon hours.  As long as we can get a few hours of sun, though, temperatures should be pushing 50F (10C) today, and well above that tomorrow.

The next storm system will start moving in by Tuesday evening, bringing with it an increasing chance of rain showers which could linger all the way into Thursday.  I've only recorded 0.28" (6mm) of rain for the month of January so far, which is ridiculously below average.  There needs to be a serious increase in the snow pack up on the mountains if we want to ensure our springtime water supply...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

the coldest day... (pm.18.jan.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.6F (4.2C)
High temp: 44.2F (6.8C) -- just after midnight
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

There is thick fog just below us in Dharamsala shortly after sunset this evening, but the clouds have broken up nicely here in McLeod during the past hour or so.  Today's high (above) occurred during the middle of the night -- but our high temp during the daytime hours was just 42.2F (5.7C), making it the coldest of this winter season thus far.  We had thick clouds and some periods of fog all day, with occasional drizzle and very light rain showers as well.  Unfortunately, that precipitation barely registered in the rain gauge, leaving us languishing way below normal for the month of January.  Even above us on the higher hills/mountains, the precip was too light to leave much fresh snow.

The meagre remains of our upper-level system is not far from Dehradun at the moment, and a quickly building ridge of high pressure aloft is already nudging into the northwestern border of India.  This is going to cause some very rapid warming in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere during the coming 24 hours or so -- but shallow cold air trapped in the lower levels below that warming aloft means there will be a pronounced inversion layer (already evidenced by the fog below) that may keep us from enjoying full sunshine during the next couple of days, despite a quiet/fair weather pattern.  Any sun we do get will lead to a nice bump in temps, however, taking us back above normal for this time of year -- especially by Monday.

Toward late Tuesday it will be time for the next in our never-ending parade of upper-level disturbances to start moving in.  But if you're still waiting for a significant winter storm (like me), I am sorry to say that this one isn't looking like it will be able to deliver the goods either.  For such a cloudy and semi-dreary month, we've not been able to capitalize and come up with much significant rain and/or snow to show for it.  Thirteen days to go...

The CURRENT FORECAST specs for the coming five days can be found on the tab above.

moisture visitation... (am.18.jan.14)>

*Update @ 9:23am... Fog is thick here in the upper part of town, as the temp holds near 40F (4.5C).  Still some light drizzle and random raindrops, but not registering in the rain gauge.  By the way, total precipitation for the entire month of January has been just 0.26" (6mm)!

We have clouds, fog, drizzle, and some very light rain in the area just before sunrise on this Saturday, but at least thus far, there is nothing measurable in the rain gauge.  The current temperature and overnight low is 39.7F (4.3C), and humidity is at 92%.

The center of our latest upper-level disturbance is over southern Punjab, and is projected to slowly make its way to somewhere between Shimla and Derhadun by early this evening.  The widespread area of rain and thunderstorms which erupted across the plains of northern India late yesterday afternoon has now weakened and pushed well off to the east, into eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and much of Nepal.  Some of that moisture has managed to get drawn into the low pressure circulation itself, however, and that's what's providing us with our light precipitation and nearly saturated conditions this morning.

There's some sub-freezing air not too far above us -- and as this system moves by just to our south today, there is definitely the possibility that we could see some snow mixing in with the light rain, with some accumulations not out of the question... especially above McLeod.  It's not a major winter storm we're dealing with, but it's at least as interesting as anything else we've seen this month so far.  And today will rival the coldest days of this winter season to top it off.

A ridge of high pressure will build across northern India tomorrow and Monday, introducing a return to much warmer air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Temperatures will rebound, but an inversion layer may prevent the sun from spending too much time with us.  Then -- we'll await the next upper-level disturbance which is scheduled for late Tuesday through Wednesday.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above, and check back here for any pertinent updates.

Friday, January 17, 2014

precariously positioned... (pm.17.jan.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 41.4F (5.2C)
High temp: 47.3F (8.5C)
Precipitation: none

There is only the faintest glimmer of orange in the western sky at sunset this evening, otherwise we are totally socked in with clouds and haze.  We only had minor peeks of sun today, as clouds thickened up gradually as the day wore on.  That kept temperatures well below the 50F (10C) mark for the first time since Sunday -- and the cold was definitely noticeable.  Otherwise the wind has been light, humidity mainly in the 50-70% range, with no precipitation.

It definitely has the look and feel of pre- winter storm conditions out there, and the weather charts are very interesting to match.  A fairly vigorous upper-level low pressure system is centered right along the Pakistan/northwest Rajasthan border at the moment, and will move slowly to eastern Himachal Pradesh (around Kinnaur) by this time tomorrow evening.  Moisture surging northward ahead of this upper-level circulation is feeding some rapid shower and thundershower development across Uttar Pradesh, which indicates that this system is coming into maturity.

Fresh data via a couple of the computer models is available every six hours -- and the latest run is indicating a bit more of a northwest track for this storm system during the next 24 hours.  If this happens, it's going to put us in a more favorable position to receive some measurable rain and/or snowfall in our immediate area before all is said and done.  The major liquid-equivalent precipitation (more than 1"/2.5cm) is targeted for points southeast of us, like Shimla and Dehradun... but it would be cutting it really close to say that we don't stand a chance of getting our share as well.  Anyway, it will be an interesting situation to watch between very late tonight and Saturday evening.

A ridge of high pressure rapidly builds in by Sunday, ushering in much warmer air aloft and stabilizing our atmosphere temporarily.  However -- it appears that the next chance of rain will appear by Tuesday and Wednesday, as yet another disturbance arrives on the scene.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab at the top of the page.

on the fringe... (am.17.jan.14)>

It is partly cloudy and hazy just before sunrise, with a humidity reading of 59%.  The overnight low at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center was 41.4F (5.2C) -- which occurred within the last hour.  There has been no precipitation since last report.

An upper-level circulation center is now located over the southern half of Pakistan, and will be making its way into Rajasthan later today, and then to Uttarakhand by Saturday afternoon.  There is already a good batch of cloudiness in association with it, along with a return of some colder air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  We'll see a very dramatic surge of moisture-laden air across central India during the next 12 hours or so, which is going to fuel widespread shower and thundershower development -- mainly to our southeast.  Each and every run of new computer model data is keeping us just to the northwest of the major outbreak of precipitation, with no tangible evidence that we're going to get more than a few scattered rain and/or snow showers in our neighborhood as this system passes by.  Still -- it's a close enough call that we'll have to watch how the upper-level circulation interacts with the surging moist air at the surface later today, and see if that might put us in a better position to pick up some more significant precipitation between tonight and Saturday evening.

By Sunday, a brand new ridge of high pressure builds across northern India, and should stick around until mid-day Tuesday when the next disturbance approaches from the west.  Temperatures should rise well above normal for the later half of January during the early part of next week, before potential wet weather cools us down again by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

the next threat... (pm.16.jan.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2F (6.2C)
High temp: 52.7F (11.5C)
Precipitation: none

We have both high clouds and some patches of fog around the area this evening.  Sunshine dominated the morning hours, but the clouds gradually encroached upon us during the afternoon, as expected -- but not before our temps reached a well above normal zone for this time of year.  Humidity fluctuated between 45 and 75% for most of the day.

Our next weather-maker is centered along the Iran/Afghanistan border this evening, and has already spread a wide area of high cloudiness out ahead of it.  This upper-level disturbance will approach northern India tomorrow, and then move right across the area Friday night into Saturday.  It is not a very strong system, but it's going to destabilize the atmosphere as far south as central India during the coming 24-36 hours or so, while tapping into some moisture to trigger widespread shower and thundershower action to our east and southeast.  All the computer model data continues to keep us on the very northwest fringes of significant precipitation as this system moves through -- so I'm still not expecting more than a few periods of light rain between late tomorrow and Saturday, with snow in the higher elevations above town.  BUT -- computer models this season have both over- and under- predicted precipitation amounts with three previous storm systems, so we can't take anything for granted and need to monitor the development carefully.

Sunday and Monday will be "in between" days, with a mix of clouds and sun, and temps bouncing back above normal for mid-January... but then it looks potentially wet again by the middle of next week.  The pattern remains active, but still unable to stir up a truly significant Himalayan winter storm for us.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

starting with sun... (am.16.jan.14)>

A clear and beautiful morning is underway, for a change, with humidity currently at 44%.  I've recorded a relatively mild overnight low of 43.2F (6.2C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.

Our sunny breaks have not lasted very long recently, as an endless train of upper-level disturbances the last twelve days or so have kept us in and out of thick clouds on a regular basis.  We've also had at least a sprinkle of rain, a flake or two of snow, or an ice pellet of some kind on nine of fifteen days this month.  But -- in spite of all that, we're running way below normal for January precipitation so far.

A weak ridge of high pressure will be in control for most of today, providing us with sunshine for at least the first part of the day, along with temperatures rising a few degrees (F) above normal for this time of year.  Already the next upper-level system is spreading clouds into Pakistan, however, and we should start to see an increase in high clouds as early as mid-day.  That system will swing across northern India tomorrow and Saturday -- but all the data continues to show the vast majority of the precipitation development happening off to our east, as moisture gets pulled northward in advance of the upper-level circulation.  So at this stage, it looks again as if we'll miss out on a healthy dose of rain and snow.  Of course we'll keep a close eye on it, in case there are last minute flip-flops.

Things look quiet and very mild for Sunday into Monday -- before the next shot at some potentially wet weather by the middle of next week.

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab above.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

lack of coordination... (pm.15.jan.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.8F (4.9C)
High temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
Precipitation: trace

Well... it has been another day of extremes.  There were clouds and some light fog around the area at sunrise this morning, which then gave way to a good amount of sunshine throughout the mid- to late morning hours.  But around noon, the low clouds and fog thickened up rapidly, leaving us with grey and gloomy weather for the entire afternoon.  We even had one or two sprinkles of rain thrown into the mix.  Today's high temp was above normal for mid-January -- believe it or not -- but that occurred during the late morning, before temps settled back to 45-46F (7.5C) for the rest of the day.  The clouds and fog are just now starting to break up after sunset this evening.

We're now reaching the midway point of the month of January, and we still haven't had a healthy dose of winter storm conditions, in spite of the frequent spells of cloudiness and threatening-looking skies.  It takes a few major factors coming together to produce a significant winter storm, and this year we seem always to be lacking something to make it all happen.  The upper-air pattern has been full of disturbances rippling through on a strong westerly flow at the jet stream level, but the few surges of moist air haven't been arriving at the right times to translate into significant rain or snow here at our elevation.  Today we had the moisture, but things have been very calm in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, for example.

I'm still banking on some nicer weather for tomorrow (Thu), as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in.  But -- the next upper-level disturbance/circulation should start to creep its way into northwest India by Friday afternoon/evening, then move across the area on Saturday.  The data still shows significant precipitation breaking out further to our east and southeast on Friday night and Saturday, but we could see some rain and/or snow shower development around here as well.  We need a coordinated synchronization between upper-level energy, the boundary between colder/milder air masses, and surging moisture from the south to get things cooking.... let's see what happens as the weekend gets nearer...

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.