Tuesday, January 7, 2014

winter storm watch... (pm.07.jan.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 39.0F (3.9C)
High temp: 46.8F (8.2C)
Precipitation: none

There are a few breaks in the overcast after sunset this evening, allowing some of those colors to shine through as the light is fading in the west.  Otherwise, we've seen a lot of high cloudiness across the area for most of the day -- the best glimpses of sun were in the morning but became fewer and farther between during the afternoon hours.  That limited sun kept temperatures quite cold -- a bit below average for early January.

The time is arriving when we're going to have to contend with a storm system that we've already been talking about and anticipating for several days.  The upper-level circulation that defines and drives this system is now moving into eastern Iran, but there is a huge shield of clouds out ahead of it as the atmosphere destabilizes, along with some rather widespread rain and snow covering much of Afghanistan.  Our air mass is going to begin lifting up against the mountains during the coming 24 hours or so, and in conjunction with some moisture being pulled northward, we should see areas of rain and snow develop here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.

It still looks like our best shot at a period of sustained, moderate to heavy precipitation is going to occur between mid-day tomorrow (Wed) and perhaps mid-day Thursday.  There will probably be a break in the action sometime from late Thursday into Friday morning, but then a secondary upper-level circulation will sweep in, giving us a good chance of more rain/snow showers by mid-day Friday into early Saturday morning.

Frankly, it's always a mystery where the rain/snow line is actually going to occur.  Computer models lack the resolution necessary to project the micro-scale features here on our steep elevation gradient -- but the data certainly points to an atmosphere capable of producing snowfall as low as McLeod.  It's going to be a busy few days as we try to keep on top of the latest changes/developments!

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics are located on the tab at the top of the page.