Monday, January 20, 2014

future prospects... (pm.20.jan.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2F (6.8C)
High temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Precipitation: none

The western sky is full of fiery oranges, reds, pinks and purples just after sunset this evening, thanks to the considerable amount of high cirrus clouds across the area.  It's been a really nice mid-winter's day, and my high temp in the upper part of town was the third warmest of the month (behind the 3rd and the 13th).  Temperatures like these are about 5-6F (3C) above average for the middle of January.  Apart from the scattered high cloudiness, there was plenty of sunshine, and humidity hovered around 40-50%.

The ridge of calm and stable high pressure which has been dominating northern India for the past couple of days is going to give way to our next upper-level disturbance by late tomorrow (Tues).  Right now the center of that low pressure circulation is just easing into southwestern Pakistan, and will move very very slowly east-northeastward during the coming 24-36 hours.  As I've been mentioning, the dynamic energy associated with this system is not impressive at all, but due to its slow movement, the counter-clockwise circulation is going to have plenty of time to draw a good amount of moisture northward ahead of it.  Computer model data is kind of all over the place in terms of projected precipitation -- from barely a trace to way over 2-3cm (around 1") in our area between late tomorrow night and mid-day Thursday.

Our risk of rain showers will begin during the wee hours of Wednesday morning, with the best chance of getting some significant rains during the day Wednesday into Thursday morning.  As of now, it appears that this air mass will be too warm for snow at our elevation, but if the precipitation really does get going this time, there will be some moderate to heavy snowfall above roughly 2200m (7200ft).  Of course we've been robbed a couple of times this month already, so I'll be in a very skeptical mood about all of this until I see something tangible materializing (!).

Check all the specifics for the coming five days on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.