*Update @ 8:58pm... We're now approaching the high-end of all those computer model projections -- I have 2.48" (6.3cm) of rain/melted snow in my rain gauge. Still some snow mixed with the rain up here, and lots of slippery slush on the terrace. Current temp: 37.4C (3.0C).
*Update @ 8:30pm... Still raining quite heavily, with some random snowflakes mixed in. But -- the temp is now up to 38.5F (3.6C), which means any snow that is falling is melting fast. Will check the rain gauge again when I feel brave enough to venture out.
*Update @ 7:38pm... It's 35.6F (2.0C) at my house on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center and Tushita. I have rain occasionally mixed with some big fat snow flakes, and my tiled terrace is very slippery with about a half inch of icy slush. The rain gauge shows 1.82" (4.6cm) of rain/melted snow. Not sure if the temperature will drop much more, but if it does, there will be snow accumulation at least in the upper part of town.
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Wednesday's stats:
Low temp: 35.4F (1.9C) -- around 7:00pm
High temp: 50.7F (10.4C) -- around 8:00am
Precipitation: 1.82" (4.6cm) -- as of 7:30pm (update to follow)
We've had a good shot of moderate to heavy rainfall this evening, and it's still raining moderately and steadily as I type. There were some very light rain showers starting around 8:45am, but the showers became gradually more frequent and more substantial over the course of the day. The total rainfall as of late afternoon was already more than we had received for the entire month of January, and of course there's been a lot more added to that during the past hour or two. Today's high temp was a brief occurrence during gusty winds around 8:00am, otherwise it's been in the 40-45F (4-7C) range for most of the day.
Well I am very relieved that we've finally broken the January jinx that had kept us from being able to get any decent precipitation this month. It turns out that most of the data has been pretty much on target this time around. The axis of the upper-level disturbance driving all this action is now centered in extreme northern Rajasthan -- with a very deep and rich fetch of subtropical moisture flowing northward ahead of it. The wind vectors in different layers of the atmosphere have to be aligned just right to get heavy precipitation development in our mountainous terrain, but it seems we are hitting the jackpot with this one.
The one thing we are missing is a batch of cold enough air to transform all this liquid into frozen form. We'll still have to be on guard overnight, as some colder air moves in aloft, and the lower atmosphere gradually cools in response to this saturation and heavier precipitation -- there is at least a reasonable chance that we could see a turnover to snow somewhere close to our elevation. But definitely the snow is already piling up well below Triund this evening.
This system will weaken considerably as it moves east-northeast late tonight into early tomorrow, and it looks likely that precipitation will pretty much come to an end during the morning hours. We'll probably even see some clearing before Thursday is finished.
It's looking relatively calm -- and milder -- as we move into the weekend. But in the meantime, we have more important things to watch during the next 12-18 hours. Stay tuned for updates, and check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab at the top of the page.
*Update @ 8:30pm... Still raining quite heavily, with some random snowflakes mixed in. But -- the temp is now up to 38.5F (3.6C), which means any snow that is falling is melting fast. Will check the rain gauge again when I feel brave enough to venture out.
*Update @ 7:38pm... It's 35.6F (2.0C) at my house on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center and Tushita. I have rain occasionally mixed with some big fat snow flakes, and my tiled terrace is very slippery with about a half inch of icy slush. The rain gauge shows 1.82" (4.6cm) of rain/melted snow. Not sure if the temperature will drop much more, but if it does, there will be snow accumulation at least in the upper part of town.
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Wednesday's stats:
Low temp: 35.4F (1.9C) -- around 7:00pm
High temp: 50.7F (10.4C) -- around 8:00am
Precipitation: 1.82" (4.6cm) -- as of 7:30pm (update to follow)
We've had a good shot of moderate to heavy rainfall this evening, and it's still raining moderately and steadily as I type. There were some very light rain showers starting around 8:45am, but the showers became gradually more frequent and more substantial over the course of the day. The total rainfall as of late afternoon was already more than we had received for the entire month of January, and of course there's been a lot more added to that during the past hour or two. Today's high temp was a brief occurrence during gusty winds around 8:00am, otherwise it's been in the 40-45F (4-7C) range for most of the day.
Well I am very relieved that we've finally broken the January jinx that had kept us from being able to get any decent precipitation this month. It turns out that most of the data has been pretty much on target this time around. The axis of the upper-level disturbance driving all this action is now centered in extreme northern Rajasthan -- with a very deep and rich fetch of subtropical moisture flowing northward ahead of it. The wind vectors in different layers of the atmosphere have to be aligned just right to get heavy precipitation development in our mountainous terrain, but it seems we are hitting the jackpot with this one.
The one thing we are missing is a batch of cold enough air to transform all this liquid into frozen form. We'll still have to be on guard overnight, as some colder air moves in aloft, and the lower atmosphere gradually cools in response to this saturation and heavier precipitation -- there is at least a reasonable chance that we could see a turnover to snow somewhere close to our elevation. But definitely the snow is already piling up well below Triund this evening.
This system will weaken considerably as it moves east-northeast late tonight into early tomorrow, and it looks likely that precipitation will pretty much come to an end during the morning hours. We'll probably even see some clearing before Thursday is finished.
It's looking relatively calm -- and milder -- as we move into the weekend. But in the meantime, we have more important things to watch during the next 12-18 hours. Stay tuned for updates, and check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab at the top of the page.
