the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Sunday, July 31, 2016

july's wet end... (pm.31.jul.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
High temp: 72.3F (22.4C)
Rainfall: 1.46" (3.7cm) -- total thru midnight

It's cloudy this evening, and quite foggy as well, with a bit of drizzle and a few sprinkles of rain in the area during the last hour or so.  Some moderate to heavy rain during the pre-dawn, along with another couple of periods of moderate (but brief) showers this afternoon have supplied us with a respectable rainfall total for the day -- which could increase before midnight rolls around.  There were sudden blasts of sunshine today as well, in the midst of the thick cloudiness and fog, but those bright periods never lasted more than a few minutes.  Humidity has held firm in the 90-95% range for the most part.

A few major doses of rain during these final seven days of July have pushed us very close to the normal amount we expect to receive for the month.  I've recorded 10.09" (25.6cm) since Monday, with about 75% of that amount coming on Wednesday and Saturday.  All we need is 0.78" (2.0cm) of additional rain in the next several hours before the calendar flips to August, and we'll have ended July exactly on par with the norm.  That is not the case for Himachal Pradesh as a whole -- the average for the state is running below normal, though the Kangra District, specifically, is only slightly below the average.

Recently active monsoon conditions are expected to continue for the first couple of days of August, but there are still some subtle signs of a slow-down of sorts between roughly Wednesday and Friday night, before heavy rain potential increases again next weekend.

Check details of our rainfall thus far this monsoon season -- both June and July -- as well as a full recap of Monsoon 2015 (for comparison purposes), on tabs at the top of the page.

Saturday, July 30, 2016

racing to the finish line... (pm.30.jul.16)>

*Update @ 8:48pm... The rain seems to be tapering off, at least for now.  But check out that rainfall total (stats section just below)... it's a very big one, indeed.

*Update @ 8:04pm... Heavier rain has developed overhead since around 7:20-7:30pm, adding appreciably to today's rainfall total very quickly.  Still raining quite heavily at the moment.

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 71.2F (21.8C)
Rainfall: 3.17" (8.1cm) -- total thru midnight

Our rainfall total for the day is a fairly hefty one -- but about 75% of that amount occurred between 3:30 and 5:00am when I'm sure most of us were snuggled in bed.  There have been a couple of periods of light to briefly moderate rain showers during the daylight hours; around 2:45pm, and again between 4:30 and 5:30pm.  Otherwise, we've had variable periods of clouds, fog and even some decent glimpses of sunshine throughout this Saturday.  Even with those quick sunny interludes, humidity has remained very high --between about 89% and 94%.

There are now just less than 30 hours left in July 2016, and we're still in need of about 3" (7.6cm) of rain to finish the month on par with the climatological norm.  This is not an impossible task, not at all, but considering the randomness of rain/thundershower development recently, we might as well flip a coin.  The air mass all across northwest India is chock-full of tropical moisture, but the upper-level flow remains very sluggish and indecisive, which means heavy downpours can occur only a few kilometers away from areas that receive nothing but sprinkles and drizzle.  This is pretty much what mid-monsoon is all about.

The same pattern/scenario will prevail as we move into the first few days of August, but then there are indications of some potentially slightly drier air and stability between Wednesday evening and Friday.  In my experience, the very wettest week or ten days of the entire monsoon season often occurs during the first 15-20 days of August, so any slow-down will probably not last for very long...

Check tabs at the top of the page for other data and info.

Friday, July 29, 2016

randomness... (pm.29.jul.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)

High temp: 70.4F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 0.23" (6mm) -- total thru midnight

Mainly light rain showers have been happening in fits and starts since mid-day, with a very brief period of more moderate rain right around noon -- but at least at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center, amounts have been very small as of this evening.  Currently, at about 6:30pm, we have cloudy skies with occasional very thick fog, and just brief light sprinkles/showers.  I might add that there has also been some faint thunder rumbling since the late afternoon.  Today's average humidity reading has challenged the highest of the entire monsoon season thus far, at about 92%.

We are in a thick tropical soup right now, with random development of areas of rain and thunder mainly to our south and southeast.  The upper-level flow is practically dead, so when a heavy rain shower develops, it doesn't get pushed along very quickly, and dumps a large load in a limited area -- while other nearby places get very little rain.  All of this scattered/random development tends to balance out over the long-term, so just when we think we're not getting in on the act, we'll get our turn.

The clock is ticking on the month of July, and at least at my recording location, we're still close to 5" (12.7cm) shy of the normal/average monthly total.  But we still have about 53 hours for that to change...

Thursday, July 28, 2016

tedious times... (pm.28.jul.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)

High temp: 71.7F (22.1C)
Rainfall: 0.15" (4mm)

The clouds and fog are in control this evening, with some random periods of sprinkles and very brief light rain showers in the area during the past hour and a half or so.  We were fortunate to get some nice sunshine early this morning, with fleeting glimpses of sun at times until the mid-afternoon when the clouds and fog thickened up and took over.  So far the rain gauge has only been dampened, with too little to register a measurement.  Humidity -- it dropped as low as 69% around 9:00am, but has been crawling back above 90% late this afternoon and evening.

The 4.57" (11.6cm) of rain we received yesterday (Wed) morning was the equivalent of about three and a half day's worth, in terms of July averages, but we are still in need of just over 5" (12.7cm) in the next three days to finish the month with the 20-year average amount for our area.  It's been all-or-nothing lately -- it seems we either get slammed hard, or missed altogether.  The overall pattern isn't expected to change during the next 4-5 days at least, so just be aware of the potential for a major dumping at any time of the day or night.

Average rainfall for August is only slightly lower than that of July -- 35.8" (90.9cm) -- so we are not anywhere near the point of being able to comtemplate the end of the monsoon season.  In fact, we're really not even to the mid-point until about the 4th or 5th of August.

Remember that you can follow the daily rainfall tally on JULY RAINFALL on a tab at the top of the page, with other local climatological info available on tabs above as well.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

a very big addition... (pm.27.jul.16)>

Wednesday's stats:  

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C) -- coolest of the month
High temp: 68.9F (20.5C)
Rainfall: 4.57" (11.6cm) -- second-highest daily total of the month

An extremely nice evening is in progress, as clouds have broken up a bit since about 5:45pm, giving us some glimpses of sunshine and spectacular, clear views in all directions.  It's a great ending to an otherwise dark and gloomy day.  The big event was obviously the very long period of moderate to heavy rain which kicked off sometime after about 1:00am, and continued until right around 9:00am.  The heaviest rain occurred between 4:30 and 6:15am, though we had several heavy showers both before and after that climax period.  There was also almost continuous thunder and lightning during the wee hours of the morning -- maybe you slept through it, but I definitely did not.

The rainfall total since midnight is a huge one -- the second largest daily amount of this monsoon season -- and has given a major boost to the July tally.  At 32.42" (82.3cm), we're now just a little more than 5" (12.7cm) away from the normal/average total for the month, with four days to go.

Well, we waited and waited (me, not so patiently) for this to happen, and the inevitable finally DID occur.  Although the atmosphere has temporarily stabilized across the western Himalayas in the wake of that massive area of rain and thunderstorms early this morning, it will gradually destabilize once again during the coming 24-36 hours, as deep tropical moisture surges back in.  A round of rain/thunder is possible overnight and Thursday, but heavy rain potential is more likely as the weekend arrives, and as we cross the line into the new month of August... Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday.  

Get a look at tabs above for other data and info...

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

waiting and waiting and waiting... (pm.26.jul.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)

High temp: 73.5F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)

It's cloudy this evening, with some large areas of fog drifting around and in and out.  There has also been a bit of drizzle and a few sprinkles of rain during the past hour or so. Two or three times today it looked like the sky was about to unleash a deluge, but up til now we've only had a few periods of brief light showers, which haven't delivered much at all to the thirsty rain gauge.  Heavy rains have occurred in nearly all directions since very early this morning, but in line with the recent trend, we've been neglected right here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.

There are a few times each year that I get totally fed up with the computer model guidance and the technology that is available to help us forecast our weather here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  This is definitely one of those times.  Five or six days ago I would have never believed that we would STILL be waiting for heavier rains to develop by this time... and though literally ALL the model guidance is projecting impressive rainfall totals between now and the weekend (some in excess of 6"/15cm), the track record of those models has been so dismal that I have gone into cynic mode.

At any rate, we are dealing with an increasingly saturated atmosphere with tons and tons of tropical moisture flowing in and up and against the outer ranges of the mountains.  There is no reason why we shouldn't get some big rainfall amounts in the coming 4-5 days -- but will it be enough to finish the month on par with the norm?

Monday, July 25, 2016

the last 6 days of july... (pm.25.jul.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
High temp: 73.4F (23.0C)
Rainfall: 0.89" (2.3cm)

Our evening sky is a variable mix of clouds, fog and peeks of sunshine, as humidity hovers just above 90%.  That humidity level has been at or above 90% throughout the day, in spite of the nice sunny breaks we've been able to squeeze out this afternoon.  Rainfall today was more significant than it's been since last Thursday -- coming in the form of a rather short but intense period of moderate to heavy showers between about 9:20 and 10:20am. There've been only a few minor spells of drizzle and sprinkles since then... at least that I've seen.

Well the big drama during the coming six days will be centered on how much rain we can manage to get before midnight on the 31st of July.  We're now in need of about 10 inches (25.5cm) in that amount of time to square up with the normal/average amount for the month.  We got off to a rocking start this month, with an even more impressive period of heavy rain between the 11th and the 17th, but since that time, daily rainfall rates have fallen way below what we would expect this time of year.  If you've been following along day-by-day, you know we've been waiting for heavier rain to materialize since late last week, but really, it has yet to do so.

All of the models are still trying to tell us that much heavier rainfall amounts are inevitable, and are on the way, effective immediately.  If the data is to believed, we still stand a good chance of seeing 8-10" (20-25cm) of rain before Sunday evening arrives.  The rain gauge is thirsty...

Check JULY RAINFALL and WETTEST MONTHS on tabs above for more detailed rainfall info.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

not measuring up... (pm.24.jul.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)

High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: 0.18" (5mm) 

Fog is the name of the game this evening, as it has been since the late morning.  There's also a bit of drizzle in the air, after some slightly more substantial light shower action off and on this afternoon -- but rainfall here in the immediate McLeod area continues to be very sporadic and light for late July.  Other features of the day include some nice glimpses of sunshine this morning, and humidity ranging between 82% and 96%.

Our daily average humidity (right around 90%) is fairly close to normal for this stage of the monsoon season, but we continue to miss out on the kind of rainfall amounts that should be happening.  The models, which did such a good job the previous week, have been worthless again the last several days -- not at all on top of the development (or lack of development) of significant rains across Himalayan north India.  The expected outbreak of more widespread/heavier rains keeps being pushed further and further into the future, when it was looking a few days ago like we'd be getting slammed with some big totals again by now.

There are still a couple of models that show heavy rain materializing basically at any moment, but other data indicates the best potential of that heavy rain affecting us sometime between late Monday night and Wednesday, and then again over the coming weekend.  If things don't get going soon, we're going to have a heck of a lot of catching up to do to make our July average of 37.8" (96cm).  Just under 11" (28cm) to go...

Check out other averages and stats on tabs at the top of the page.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

just moderately active... (pm.23.jul.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: 0.54" (1.4cm)

Our Saturday evening features a pleasant assortment of streaks of blue sky, clumps of clouds and patches of fog... along with comfortably mild temperatures.  The morning was dominated by clouds, with a period of moderate rain showers and thick fog between about 10:15 and 11:45am.  Some drizzle lingered until just after noon, but then most of the PM hours turned out fine, with sunshine ducking in and out between periods of clouds and a little fog at times.  Humidity today was as low as 80%, but as high as 98-100% during the thick fog and rain.

Since Thursday we've been back into some appreciable rainfall amounts, but they are still running below the daily average pace that we would expect during the latter one-third of July.  We need just over 11" (28cm) of rain in the next eight days to finish off the month on par with normal/average for July -- and that means from this point forward, we'll need close to 1.40" (3.6cm) each and every day.  This is not a tall order at all this time of year, especially considering the fact that we will continue easing into a more and more active monsoon pattern during the next several days.

A couple of models are showing some heavy rain development tonight through Sunday, with another model indicating it could be Monday night through Tuesday and Wednesday before we really get smacked hard again.  Deeper tropical moisture continues gathering to our south, so it is really just a matter of time before those daily rainfall totals increase significantly.

Check out tabs above and archives along the right column for lots of other data and info...

Friday, July 22, 2016

still rather sub-par... (pm.22.jul.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)

High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: 0.27" (7mm)

Some fleeting glimpses of blue sky are visible this evening, otherwise we'd have to call it mostly cloudy at the moment, with patchy fog.  Sunshine was very limited today, but the rain has also been limited, at least up til now.  In fact, all of the rain in my gauge was deposited there during the very early morning hours, with the scattered light thundershowers moving out or coming to an end before 7:30am.  Humidity today has ranged from near 80% to about 92%.

Rainfall this week has been on the other end of the spectrum compared to what we experienced last week.  Although there's been some isolated/scattered moderate to heavy shower action around the area since very early Thursday morning, the rainfall tally at my specific location has been nothing at all to get excited about, as we're now on the fifth day in a row of sub-average daily rainfall rates.  Most of the data is still showing a steady trend toward more saturated conditions and heavier rains as we head through the weekend and into about the first half of next week -- so let's watch and see if we can scratch and claw our way back to normal monsoon conditions for the latter part of July.

By the way, it's quite common during the monsoon season, and actually anytime during the convective/thunderstorm seasons of the year, to see huge discrepancies in rainfall amounts across very short distances.  I've been hearing stories the last couple of days about some people receiving very heavy downpours, while neighbors not far away get missed altogether.  But in the long run, it all tends to balance out.

The JULY RAINFALL tally for my location in the upper part of McLeod Ganj can be found on the tab above...

Thursday, July 21, 2016

recent break is ending... (pm.21.jul.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)

High temp: 73.6F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 0.90" (2.3cm) -- updated @ 7:50pm

There are some light rain showers lurking around the area this evening, with mostly cloudy skies and some large patches of fog.  A few moderate to heavy showers have been scattered in our vicinity since the middle of the afternoon -- and that rainfall amount you see above will have to be updated when I get to the gauge later this evening.  Even during the wee hours of the morning there were some heavy showers down in the valley, south of us, so genuine monsoon conditions are creeping back, after our extended break.

The total amount of rainfall at my location in the upper part of town was only 0.15" (4mm) between Monday and about noon today, so we were definitely overdue to see those heavy showers re-materialize this afternoon.  That trend toward a more saturated air mass and better chances of occasional heavy rain will continue as we move into the weekend, and likely at least into the early part of next week as well.  Our daily rainfall average has dropped during the last three or four days, but will be heading upward again as a more active monsoon pattern spreads back into northwest India.

At least at this point, the models are not hinting at much of a retreat of deep tropical moisture next week, so we could be in for an extended period of wetter weather and humidity again remaining above 90%.  But of course that's what we would expect to happen during the last week or so of July.

Explore archives on the right and tabs at the top of the page for lots of other data and information...

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

temporarily uneventful... (pm.20.jul.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)

High temp: 75.5F (24.2C)
Rainfall: trace 

It is very foggy and cloudy at this moment, and there have been some random sprinkles of rain in the last hour or so.  But, unless we get more substantial shower development in the next several hours, we're going to end up with the third day in a row of very sub-par rainfall amounts for the middle of July.  I've recorded just 0.15" (4mm) of rain since Monday morning.  Clouds, fog and sunshine battled it out again today, with only those very light sprinkles and brief showers -- just after noon, and again this evening.  Humidity has ranged from 78 to 95%.

This period of nearly 72 hours without significant rainfall is a rather long one for this time of year, but it's looking like we will be easing back into a wetter pattern as the weekend approaches.  If we don't get some heavier rain this evening, it is looking like those chances will be on the rise late tomorrow (Thu), with the risk of heavy rain going higher and higher between Friday and Sunday.  Right now this new surge of tropical moisture doesn't look as daunting as the one we dealt with last week, but it's at least going to put us back into moderately active monsoon conditions after this recent break.

Temperatures both yesterday and today were among the top five warmest of the month, but with average humidity on the increase again, along with more pervasive showers coming back into the picture, we should drop a few degrees by Saturday, Sunday and probably beyond...

Follow our JULY RAINFALL tally, updated daily, on a tab up above.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

recovery mode... (pm.19.jul.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)

High temp: 75.2F (24.0C)
Rainfall: 0.08" (2mm)

For the second day in a row, I've recorded less than one-tenth of an inch of rainfall, following a week in which we received nearly 16 inches (40cm).  There were only a couple of brief periods of showers during the mid-afternoon which never really got going, but we remain cloudy this evening with lots of fog in the area.  The day started out with brilliant sunshine, which is something that doesn't happen very frequently during July and August, but the clouds were already rapidly on the increase by 11:00am.  Humidity was all over the place today -- ranging from near 60% during the mid-morning, up to 95% at times this afternoon and evening.

We are obviously in a rather dead phase of the monsoon right now, as expected, as the deepest tropical moisture has retreated, and other dynamics are not favorable for anything other than very isolated shower/thunder development across Himalayan north India.  It's very nice to get a breather now and then.

Already it seems clear that there will be another strong push of that tropical moisture and its attendant increase in heavy rain potential by late Thursday, and especially on Friday into Saturday.  We are just 12" (30.5cm) short of the normal/average rainfall total for the month of July, with eleven days to go -- so it's probably not going to be that great of a challenge to get there.

Check tabs above for other local weather and blog resources...

Monday, July 18, 2016

running ahead of the pace... (pm.18.jul.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)

High temp: 70.1F (21.2C)
Rainfall: 0.07" (2mm)

We are shrouded in thick fog this evening, and there have been a few sprinkles of rain in the area during the last hour or so.  Like yesterday, rainfall up until the evening hours has been very light -- but I think we all remember very well what happened last night after about 8:15pm, when nearly 2 and 1/3 inches (6cm) of rain fell in just a couple of hours.  Early this morning there was a decent amount of muggy sunshine, though humidity never dropped below about 83-84%, and has risen again above 95% since late afternoon.

Conditions for heavy rainfall are starting to ease a bit, but there's still a chance that we could get another round of heavy rain during at least the first half of the night.  The deepest tropical moisture will then be in retreat for a couple of days, with daily rainfall averages expected to drop off during the mid-week period.  This time of year it's tough to say that there will be no rain at all, but models are painting a very lackluster and weak-looking picture between tomorrow (Tues) and about Thursday evening.  We might be able to enjoy some nice periods of sun as well, between build-ups of clouds and fog.

By Thursday night, the next tropical moisture surge will be on the way, and that means the risk of more extended periods of heavy rainfall as we head into the weekend, and then into early next week.  Right now we are significantly ahead of the pace for normal July rainfall, and you can check tabs above for details on monthly averages and this month's tally...

Sunday, July 17, 2016

more on the way... (pm.17.jul.16)>

**Update @ 9:04pm... This is what monsoon season is all about -- 1.58" (4.0cm) of rain in just 45 minutes, giving a massive boost to our previously tiny total for the day.  Still raining quite heavily...

**Update @ 8:44pm... All that talk about a day with very little rainfall means nothing now, as very heavy rain has developed overhead during the last half hour or so.  I will try to get a look at the rain gauge shortly...


Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 62.6F (17.0C)

High temp: 70.2F (21.2C)
Rainfall: 2.35" (6.0cm) -- total through midnight

Our sky condition has been quite variable since late this afternoon, with some patches of blue sky and sunshine alternating with clouds and fog.  We're still kind of in that variable state at the moment, though the fog looks like it is taking over again.  Rainfall today has been light -- at least as of 6:30pm, I've got the lowest total since Thursday the 7th, exactly ten days ago.  Scattered light showers were confined to the mid-late morning, and then again just after 4:00pm.  Even with the absence of significant rain, humidity averaged right around 94%.

Conditions remain favorable for the development of some areas of moderate to locally heavy rain during the coming 24 hours or so, so we may get hit again tonight and/or Monday.  But then that subtle retreat of the deepest tropical moisture is still being advertised between Tuesday and perhaps mid-day Thursday.  It would be kind of nice to get a break from the heavier rains for a few days, since the last week has been a whopper.  I've measured about 14" (35.6cm) in the last seven days, and that's close to the largest weekly rainfall totals we ever get around here.

Rainfall rates are likely to increase again by the latter part of the week -- as early as Thursday evening into Friday.  But even with the ebb and flow of rainfall intensity this coming week, humidity should remain consistently high.

Take a look at tabs above for more info...

Saturday, July 16, 2016

a very wet week it's been... (pm.16.jul.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C) 

High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: 2.47" (6.3cm) -- total through midnight

Are we getting used to this?  There are off-and-on moderate showers in the area this evening, with cloudy skies and patches of fog.  Rainfall today has been split into three different episodes -- the first was during the wee hours of the morning, the second was between about 7:15 and 10:30am, and the third and most recent spell got going around 4:15pm.  We actually had a nice respite for a few hours during mid-day, with a couple of fleeting glimpses of sun in the midst of the clouds and fog.  For the sixth day in a row, our daily rainfall has exceeded one inch (2.5cm), which is a definite sign that we are into the thick of the monsoon season.

Way back at the beginning of this week we were anticipating a very wet spell, with some heavy rainfall totals as we looked forward.  Well, that has indeed materialized beyond question, with well over 13" (33cm) of rain since Monday.  Our total for July is now significantly ahead of the normal/average pace, as we transition into the latter half of the month.

This very active phase of monsoon conditions is expected to continue for another 36-48 hours or so, but there is a definite slow-down showing up in the model data by Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.  It's not going to dry out completely, but rainfall rates should diminish for a couple of days, before the next batch of moisture surges in by late Thursday.  By this stage of the season, humidity won't drop very much, or for very long, even if we do get a break in the rain...

Explore tabs above and archives on the right column for plenty of other info...

Friday, July 15, 2016

monsoon pride... (pm.15.jul.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)

High temp: 69.5F (20.8C)
Rainfall: 4.92" (12.5cm) -- total through midnight

Well take a look at that rainfall amount for the day (since midnight) -- it's a very big one -- the largest daily total of this monsoon season, and also of course for 2016.  About 75% of that amount occurred between roughly 5:00am and 10:30am, when we had a very long period of moderate to heavy rainfall that seemed like it was never going to end.  Since then, there've been several periods of showers, but the drizzle has been nearly constant, and continues this evening as I type.  The thermometer barely moved today, as humidity remained in the 95-100% range.

Many times you've heard me berate the computer models, complaining about how inconsistent and out-to-lunch they can be, but I have to say that those models have done a very good job the last week to ten days -- consistently projecting this period of intense monsoon conditions we find ourselves in the midst of recently.  This week has been by far the wettest week of the season and the year, with about 11" (27.5cm) of rain just since Monday evening.  The average humidity has been exactly what we were expecting as well -- remaining well above 90% the last couple of days.

Looking at things from all angles, it appears that we will not find our way out of this soggy mess for at least another two or three days, as deep, rich and juicy tropical moisture continues to be forced up against the outer ranges of the north Indian Himalayas, and some slightly cooler air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere drifts in from the northwest.  Rainfall projection data still seems to keep the heaviest amounts south and west of us over the weekend, but so far that has not been the case.  

By late Monday into Tuesday we may taste a bit of a respite, which could mean lower daily rainfall totals for two or three days.  For the actual stats, follow the JULY RAINFALL tally on the tab up at the top of the page...

Thursday, July 14, 2016

saturation all around... (pm.14.jul.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 66.6F (19.2C)

High temp: 70.6F (21.4C)
Rainfall: 1.25" (3.2cm) -- total thru midnight

Light rain is falling at the moment, with a few bursts of more moderate intensity showers during the last half hour or so.  It's totally cloudy and foggy as well, as it has been for most of the day.  Although it's been at least drizzling most of the time since around 9:00am, the rainfall total so far hasn't been very big -- but there are still several hours until midnight for us to boost that tally.  Humidity today never dipped below 90%, and spent most of the time at 94% or higher, at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.

This current active phase of monsoon conditions across Himalayan north India is expected to continue into the weekend, with some very heavy rainfall amounts likely -- from Punjab into Himachal Pradesh, southwestern Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand -- by the time Sunday night rolls around.  The latest model data is showing some particularly gigantic rainfall projections for points just to our south and west, like more than 7-8" (18-20cm) in a 24 hour period.  As I mentioned a couple of posts back, this is the time when there could be some significant issues with flooding, landslides and road wash-outs across north India, so just be vigilant and careful and well-prepared if you have to travel.

A suggestion of some kind of a brief/temporary retreat of the deepest tropical moisture is showing up in the data by late Monday or Tuesday, but as we head into the latter half of July, a "retreat" is probably not going to last for very long.

Check out tabs above for all kinds of other info, including JULY RAINFALL, the synopsis of this year's monsoon advance, and a review of last year's monsoon daily rainfall...

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

active phase to continue... (pm.13.jul.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)

High temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Rainfall: 1.48" (3.8cm) -- updated @ 8:30pm

It is cloudy and drizzly along the mountain slopes this evening, but the sun is trying to break out to the southwest, with good visibility down into the Kangra Valley.  Today's rainfall total has been a bit above par for the middle of July, but the vast majority of that amount occurred during the early morning hours -- mainly before dawn.  Since then, we've had quite a few periods of drizzle and light rain showers, but none of it has been particularly heavy.  We even had a blast of sunshine for an hour or two this morning, which turned out to be only a deceptive tease.

You know we're firmly into monsoon season when 87% humidity seems LOW.  That's what it dropped to for a while during the mid-morning, and again during the mid-afternoon -- otherwise the average humidty reading for the day was again just above 90%.

I've measured about 5.5" (14cm) of rain since Monday, and that's put us pretty much back on a normal track for the month of July.  And if the picture being painted by all of the computer model data turns out to be correct, there's a lot more rain on the way between tonight and Sunday.  Some of the data is showing at least another 5-7" (13-18cm) in our general area by Sunday evening, so it will be very interesting to see if that turns into reality for us.  According to the data this evening, the heaviest rain is projected to occur tomorrow (Thu) evening into mid-day Friday.  That could turn out to be a fluke in the model interpretation, but we won't have to wait very long to find out.

A trend toward more moderate rainfall amounts/intensity is expected next week, but this time of year, that may not even turn out to be anything very noticeable at all.

Remember to check out JULY RAINFALL on one of the tabs above, if you are interested in following the daily tally...

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

rain gauge is busy... (pm.12.jul.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)

High temp: 71.2F (21.8C)
Rainfall: 1.51" (3.8cm) --updated @ 8:00pm

We're enjoying a brighter moment, with some big breaks in the clouds allowing some patches of blue and faint glimmers of sunshine to appear this evening.  But it has been an extremely wet 24-hour period, with nearly 4" (10cm) of rain since this time yesterday.  The rainfall total listed above is only a partial amount for the day -- and I'm pretty sure I'll find almost double that when I get to the rain gauge in an hour or so.  Check back for the update.  But let's just say we've had some robust monsoon conditions in the area since last evening's post.

The most impressive surge of deep tropical moisture of our still relatively young monsoon season is in progress across northcentral into northwest India, and it looks like periods of heavy to very heavy rainfall will be likely over a wide area during the rest of this week, and probably through the weekend.  Of course it won't rain continuously -- and there will even likely be some extended periods of dry weather -- but as I've been aluding to for a few days, the weekly rainfall total by this Sunday is probably going to be very impressive. I think we'll be hearing about flooding and some landslides across parts of Himalayan north India during the coming several days as well.

Sunshine should be much more limited through the weekend, which will keep our temperatures from fluctuating very much between night and day, as humidity stays near or above 90% most of the time.

Follow the JULY RAINFALL stats and check other info on tabs above.

Monday, July 11, 2016

loaded atmosphere... (pm.11.jul.16)>

*UPDATE @ 9:42pm... The rainfall total for the entire day has doubled since 8:20pm (see stats below).  For the moment, the rain has diminished.

*UPDATE @ 9:09pm... Very heavy rain in progress the last 20 minutes or so.  The flow of air from the south and south-southeast has kicked in, bringing in that robust surge of tropical moisture blasting up against the mountains that we've been waiting for.

*UPDATE @ 8:47pm... The rain has intensified again, so the rainfall tally for the day continues to go up.  Check back for an updated total in the stats section just below.

*UPDATE @ 7:58pm... That 'loaded atmosphere' has finally decided to empty itself a little.  We've had a very heavy downpour of rain which started around 7:15pm, and seems to be tapering off now.  I only glanced at the rain gauge as I came in, but it looks like something in the neighborhood of 1.00" (2.5cm) in just the past 45mins or so.


Monday's stats:

Low temp: 66.4F (19.1C)

High temp: 73.7F (23.2C) -- updated
Rainfall: 2.32" (5.9cm) -- total through midnight

We've had more of these very brief light rain showers on-and-off since the mid-afternoon, in addition to the very light showers before dawn today.  But the impact on/in the rain gauge has been paltry at best, up til now.  At this moment there are some sprinkles of rain with thick clouds and fog -- as humidity pushes 93-95%.  The last two days we've had the highest average daily humidity readings of the entire monsoon season thus far, in spite of the low rainfall totals.

The latest surge of deep tropical moisture that we've been anticipating the last several days is moving in right now, and will push our atmosphere to the saturation point (and keep it there) for much of this week.  The computer models contunue to show heavier rain amounts across most of the outer ranges of the north Indian Himalayas as we move toward Thursday, Friday and Saturday, and I am very interested to see what kind of rainfall tally we can amass in the next 5-6 days or so.  Recently, we've dropped behind the pace for normal July rainfall, so we've definitely got some catching up to do.

Check tabs at the top of the page for other info, and thousands of archived posts since 2010 on the right column.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

deeper into monsoon... (pm.10.jul.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)

High temp: 74.8F (23.8C)
Rainfall: 0.30" (8mm) -- updated @ 8:10pm

Right now it is mostly cloudy with some patchy fog in the area, but we've had some light rain showers as recently as about an hour ago.  Pre-dawn showers were briefly moderate to heavy, but since daybreak, the scattered hit-and-miss showers have been quite numerous and frequent, but generally light and of short duration.  That's why our daily rainfall total up to this point is nothing to get very excited about.  Humidity was pegged on 96-100% early this morning, and dropped to only about 82% a couple of times during the day.

The heaviest rain of the entire year usually occurs between about the 15th of July and the 15th of August, so we are right on the precipice of entering that zone.  There's a brand new surge of very deep, rich and juicy tropical moisture gathering to our south and southeast, which models are projecting to gradually ooze in our direction during the next 24-48 hours.  The moisture content of the atmosphere -- which is already quite high -- will be even higher for most of this week, and it's likely that we'll see some long stretches when humidity stays near or above 90%.  Periods of rain will come and go, but there are indications that the next 6-7 days could yield the heaviest rainfall totals of the season thus far.  Let's see.

Due to unusually wet weather during both May and June, the crop of ferns and mosses has developed and matured very rapidly this year -- to me, it looks to be a week or 10 days ahead of schedule.

Get a look at local climatological data on tabs above, and follow the JULY RAINFALL tally as well...

Saturday, July 9, 2016

tropical characteristics... (pm.09.jul.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)

High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: 0.86" (2.2cm)

This evening it is cloudy and very foggy -- almost the same story we've dealt with the previous two evenings at this time.  But the real news is the 1.26" (3.2cm) of rain we've received in the last 24 hours -- 0.40" (1.0cm) just before midnight last night, and then another 0.86" (2.2cm) today.  Most of today's amount occurred in a 20 minute period between about 2:15 and 2:35pm when we were slammed with a very intense downpour.  There have also been some fleeting peeks of sunshine today in between the extended periods of clouds and fog.

My inspiration and motivation continues to lag, as these kinds of slow and sloppy tropical weather patterns are not all that fun or interesting to follow.  That's because very little is happening that the charts, models and data can really latch on to.  The moisture is in place, the upper-level flow is almost dead, and it's micro-scale features much smaller than the resolution of computer model grids that determine whether or not, where and when, areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop.  Random, hit-and-miss development is the name of the game, so it's really just a wait and see forecast scenario.

There have been significant indications of a more large-scale surge of very deep tropical moisture into northwest India again starting Sunday night into Monday, and at least right now, the models show it sticking around through much of the coming week.  This time of year it is not too hard to get in the neighborhood of 7-10" (18-25cm) of rain in just one week's time.  So let's see what the monthly rainfall tally does by next Sunday evening.

Of course you can follow that day-to-day JULY RAINFALL tally on the tab up at the top of the page.

Friday, July 8, 2016

measurable rain eludes us... (pm.08.jul.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 66.6F (19.2C)

High temp: 77.1F (25.1C)
Rainfall: 0.40" (1.0cm) -- total up til midnight

The clouds and fog have been thick and heavy again late this afternoon and evening, but there have only been a few sprinkles of rain that I've witnessed.  Thunder was rumbling during the early evening, but as threatening as it has looked, the rain hasn't come.  Humidity today ranged from about 70 to 90% -- the same as yesterday.

Right now I am totally uninspired, which is something that rarely happens.  Will add more later if I can think of anything worthwhile to say...

Thursday, July 7, 2016

moisture-laden air... (pm.07.jul.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 64.9F (18.3C)

High temp: 74.8F (23.8C)
Rainfall: trace 

It's cloudy and foggy as dusk sets in this evening, and the sky looks like it could unleash a torrent at any second.  But -- that's kind of the way it's been looking since early afternoon.  There have been some peeks of hazy sunshine in between clouds and fog today, but the sun was much more limited than it was yesterday.  Humidity has been high all day -- in the range of 70 to 90%, but up until this moment, there has been no measurable rainfall to report.

A couple of models are showing very little precipitation development in our area during the next 24-48 hours, but another two models are projecting some scattered heavy rain showers from southwestern Jammu & Kashmir into Himachal Pradesh.  Based on the moisture profiles, and hints of development on the latest satellite pics, I'm inclined to think that there will be some rain showers popping up during the overnight hours.  Whether we get something right on top of us is anybody's guess, but it certainly looks and feels that way this evening.

If we somehow manage to escape a round or two of heavy rain in the next couple of days, models are suggesting a major resurgence of deep tropical moisture sometime on Sunday into Sunday night, and an even more ominous looking scenario by the latter part of next week.  Either way, the monsoon season is here, and high humidity is here to stay, and rain is never too far away...

Peruse tabs at the top of the page and archives on the right-hand column for lots of other info.

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

birthday gift... (pm.06.jul.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.9F (16.6C)
High temp: 77.0F (25.0C)
Rainfall: 0.46" (1.2cm)

There is something to report in the rainfall stats today, as you can see just above, but all of that happened during the wee hours of the morning.  The daylight hours have been incredibly friendly to us today, seemingly in honor of His Holiness the Dalai Lama's 81st birthday.  There was quite a bit of cloudiness around all morning, but the sunshine broke out around 1:00pm, and has stayed with us for most of the remainder of the afternoon and evening.  Humidity dropped down to about 58% during mid-morning, but despite the sunshine, has been back up around 75% late this afternoon.  Yes it's been nice and bright, but there's plenty of latent moisture in this air mass.

We're just above 7" (nearly 18cm) of rain for the month of July already, very much on a normal pace for this, the wettest month of the year on average.  These stretches of sunny and dry weather are so so so nice, but they are few and far between, and will become fewer and further between as we push deeper into the monsoon season.  Tropical moisture and instability factors ebb and flow, of course, even during the monsoon, but it starts to get pretty difficult to get more than 24-36 hours of totally dry weather.  Models, as I have mentioned many times, are not much help at all, but can at least give us general indications of moisture surges and retreats.

The risk of at least a round or two of moderate showers is very good again either later tonight or during Thursday into Thursday night.  With a more impressive surge of deep tropical moisture again on the way by late Saturday into early next week.

The monsoon has almost completed its advance across the Indian subcontinent for 2016, and you can check the SUMMER INTO MONSOON tab for the latest on that.  JULY RAINFALL is the place to keep on top of the daily running total of rainfall for this month...

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

it rained a lot... (pm.05.jul.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)

High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Rainfall: 3.27" (8.3cm) -- updated at 8:20pm

The mahem of the mid-late afternoon has come to an end, and we actually have a very quiet and pleasant evening underway.  There's even some clearing showing up over the mountains to the north, but still a lot of cloudiness in all other directions.  The undeniable main event of the day was the massive downpour which got started shortly after 3:00pm and reached its climax between 3:30 and 4:20pm -- just when I was trying to traverse the length of McLeod Ganj, from Tushita Road all the way down to Kirti Monastery.  Needless to say, even with a very large umbrella, I was pretty much soaked.  But enough about me and my problems.  We did have some off and on peeks of sun this morning and even into the early afternoon, but humidity never dropped much below 80% today.

That rainfall total up in the stats section will be updated as soon as I can get back to take a look at the rain gauge -- but I am certain that it is probably at least double what you see there.  If that is indeed the case, this afternoon's deluge will be the heaviest single rainfall event of this new monsoon season.  July is definitely off to a roaring start.

There's a big birthday party tomorrow morning at Tsuglakhang, honoring His Holiness the Dalai Lama, and let's hope and pray that those few hours will somehow come in between bouts of rain.  Otherwise the rest of the week will continue to feature periods of muggy sunshine, clouds and fog, and occasional rain showers of varying intensity.  Appreciable invasions of dry air are just not a very good possibility as we push deeper into July.

Follow our mounting rainfall tally on the JULY RAINFALL tab above, along with continuing info on the monsoon's advance on SUMMER INTO MONSOON.

Monday, July 4, 2016

sun loses the battle... (pm.04.jul.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)

High temp: 75.1F (23.9C)
Rainfall: 1.20" (3.0cm) -- thru midnight

At the moment we're enveloped in very thick fog, with visibility less than about 50m where I am in the middle of town.  It's a far cry from what we were enjoying early this morning, with almost full sunshine until about 9:00am when the cloud development got going.  Rainfall today, so far, has been confined to just a few periods of mainly light showers between about 12:15pm and 2:30pm, and again a few sprinkles during the last half hour or so.  Humidity was as low as 69% during mid-morning, but has risen above 90% again this evening.

We got our little respite, but those are usually relatively short-lived this time of year -- and I know we are all very thankful for the hours of dry weather and sunshine that we can manage to scrape together.  The weather pattern this week is not what I would call an intense monsoon pattern, but there is a moderate degree of elements in place to keep us in and out of showers/downpours, with no day allowing guarantees of no rain.  I meticulously comb through all the computer model data twice a day, but I can honestly tell you that the models are little or no help this time of year, as the tropical soup interacting with the elevation gradient along the mountains often produces significant rains totally overlooked by models - OR - squashes development projected by the models. It can go either way.  That's why we just have to roll with it and be constantly on guard and prepared for rapid changes and sudden showers.

As I mentioned a few days ago, our temps have already settled into an early monsoon season rhythm, and won't vary more than about 8-12ºF (5-7ºC) from day to night.  Personally, the pleasant/comfortable temps are what I like most about this time of year...

It's time to post, but I will say that the rain has picked up again in the last ten minutes or so, which should boost our rainfall total for the day.  Check back for updates tonight.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

attempting a respite... (pm.03.jul.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: 1.40" (3.6cm)

A very nice evening is in progress, after a couple of dark and dank and damp and gloomy days.  We have partly cloudy skies with some patchy fog around the area during this hour before sunset, but visibility is excellent downhill to the south-southwest.  The rainfall tally for the day is a respectable one... the rain was never particularly heavy, but we had spells of persistent moderate rain late last night into the early morning, and again from late morning into the mid-afternoon... which took us to nearly an inch and a half for the day's total.  And by the way, the high temp was the coolest I've recorded since the 24th of May.

As we were expecting, some drier air has been trying to nudge its way in late this afternoon and evening, and has been successful in breaking up the cloudiness, at least temporarily.  Rain chances won't disappear, and humidity won't drop very much, but there could at least be more peeks of sunshine tomorrow than we've seen recently, and according to humidity/moisture profiles, we could see some periods of brightness off and on throughout the coming week.  Having said that, a round or two of moderate to heavy rain is still a good bet nearly each and every 24 hour period, and ironically, an hour or two of sun just increases the atmospheric instability.

There ceases to be much new to say this time of year... and the main task is simply monitoring the rain gauge and exercising good arithmetic as the monthly totals add up.  Check tabs above for other info on local weather and climatology, etc.

Saturday, July 2, 2016

monsoon gloom... (pm.02.jul.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 64.9F (18.3C)

High temp: 71.0F (21.7C)
Rainfall: 0.32" (8mm)

Clouds are prevalent across the area this evening, and we have some large clumps of fog drifting around as well.  The sun was totally shut out today, keeping our temps from moving much at all, and delivering what could probably win the 'gloomiest of the season' award.  This morning humidity held in the 95-100% range, but it did dip to around 85% during the mid-afternoon for a couple of hours.  As far as rain is concerned, we again had several periods of mainly light rain showers and drizzle, but the daily total up to this point is not really impressive at all.  That's not the case just barely west and southwest of us, where a few inches of rain fell overnight into the early morning hours.

Well it's plain to see that we're dealing with an air mass that is right at the brink of full saturation, and that's what the monsoon season is all about.  Rain or no rain, very high humidity keeps us flirting with fog most of the time during this season -- and that makes it a real pain to dry laundry, or simply to keep the damp away.  And we've only just begun, of course.

The risk of a period of heavy to very heavy rain remains with us overnight into at least mid-day Sunday, as this deep tropical moisture teams up with some pockets of cooler air drifting by in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Our last bout of heavier rain occurred early on Thursday morning, so we are due again.  It looks like we could get a bit of drier air working its way in between Sunday evening and early Tuesday, with deeper moisture flowing in again thereafter.  Even on days featuring a temporarily drier air mass, the risk of measurable rain is much better than 50/50.

Check tabs above for monsoon info, daily stats and local climatology... and of course the full archive of blog posts on the right column of the page.

Friday, July 1, 2016

july - the wettest month... (pm.01.jul.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 65.7F (18.7C)

High temp: 74.6F (23.7C)
Rainfall: 0.38" (1.0cm)

It's cloudy with some haze and light fog in the area this evening, as humidity remains just above 80%, as it has throughout the day.  We've had several periods of rain showers and some thunder at times since well before sunrise this morning, but as you can see from the stats, today's rainfall has been relatively light so far -- at least compared to what we had yesterday.

That may be changing shortly though, as satellite pics this evening are showing an extensive area of rain and thunderstorms blossoming to our west and northwest, which the upper winds should steer in our direction if they don't dissipate in the next few hours.  As we've been anticipating, the weekend is looking like it could be a very wet one, as a very moist tropical air mass gets over-run by some cooler air flowing into the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Some of the computer model data is showing the heaviest rainfall amounts just to our southwest between late tonight and late Sunday night, but we'll have to take that with a grain of salt, since our mountain slopes could trigger heavier rains that the models don't clue in to.

July is here -- and the normal/average rainfall for the month is in the range of 37-38 inches (94-96cm), which is a staggering amount of rain in any part of the world.  Last year the heaviest rain waited until the latter part of July to really start adding up, but it seems that we may not have to wait that long this year.

Check tabs above for monsoon info, monthly stats and plenty of other info...