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Saturday, July 30, 2016

racing to the finish line... (pm.30.jul.16)>

*Update @ 8:48pm... The rain seems to be tapering off, at least for now.  But check out that rainfall total (stats section just below)... it's a very big one, indeed.

*Update @ 8:04pm... Heavier rain has developed overhead since around 7:20-7:30pm, adding appreciably to today's rainfall total very quickly.  Still raining quite heavily at the moment.

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 71.2F (21.8C)
Rainfall: 3.17" (8.1cm) -- total thru midnight

Our rainfall total for the day is a fairly hefty one -- but about 75% of that amount occurred between 3:30 and 5:00am when I'm sure most of us were snuggled in bed.  There have been a couple of periods of light to briefly moderate rain showers during the daylight hours; around 2:45pm, and again between 4:30 and 5:30pm.  Otherwise, we've had variable periods of clouds, fog and even some decent glimpses of sunshine throughout this Saturday.  Even with those quick sunny interludes, humidity has remained very high --between about 89% and 94%.

There are now just less than 30 hours left in July 2016, and we're still in need of about 3" (7.6cm) of rain to finish the month on par with the climatological norm.  This is not an impossible task, not at all, but considering the randomness of rain/thundershower development recently, we might as well flip a coin.  The air mass all across northwest India is chock-full of tropical moisture, but the upper-level flow remains very sluggish and indecisive, which means heavy downpours can occur only a few kilometers away from areas that receive nothing but sprinkles and drizzle.  This is pretty much what mid-monsoon is all about.

The same pattern/scenario will prevail as we move into the first few days of August, but then there are indications of some potentially slightly drier air and stability between Wednesday evening and Friday.  In my experience, the very wettest week or ten days of the entire monsoon season often occurs during the first 15-20 days of August, so any slow-down will probably not last for very long...

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