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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

waiting and waiting and waiting... (pm.26.jul.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C)

High temp: 73.5F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)

It's cloudy this evening, with some large areas of fog drifting around and in and out.  There has also been a bit of drizzle and a few sprinkles of rain during the past hour or so. Two or three times today it looked like the sky was about to unleash a deluge, but up til now we've only had a few periods of brief light showers, which haven't delivered much at all to the thirsty rain gauge.  Heavy rains have occurred in nearly all directions since very early this morning, but in line with the recent trend, we've been neglected right here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.

There are a few times each year that I get totally fed up with the computer model guidance and the technology that is available to help us forecast our weather here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  This is definitely one of those times.  Five or six days ago I would have never believed that we would STILL be waiting for heavier rains to develop by this time... and though literally ALL the model guidance is projecting impressive rainfall totals between now and the weekend (some in excess of 6"/15cm), the track record of those models has been so dismal that I have gone into cynic mode.

At any rate, we are dealing with an increasingly saturated atmosphere with tons and tons of tropical moisture flowing in and up and against the outer ranges of the mountains.  There is no reason why we shouldn't get some big rainfall amounts in the coming 4-5 days -- but will it be enough to finish the month on par with the norm?