the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

winter fading... (pm.28.feb.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.2F (6.2C)
Afternoon high temp: 56.8F (13.8C)
Rainfall: none

Total February Rainfall: 9.11" (23.1cm)

Clouds are hanging onto the mountains just before sunset this evening, otherwise it's partly cloudy.  There were a couple of showers just uphill from us this afternoon, but no raindrops in the immediate McLeod area.  Thanks to a good amount of sunshine, today was much more pleasant than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal for the final day of February.

The arrival of March is going to coincide with a strong warming trend, taking our temperatures well above the previous highest of 2013 thus far.  Warming is just now starting to occur in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere as the jet stream lifts well to our north for the next several days at least.  The normal high for the first few days of March is around 64-65F (18C), and we should have no trouble reaching that.

After a much wetter than normal February, it looks like rain chances will all but disappear with the arrival of the new month.  Even instability over the mountains should be at a minimum, leaving us with a mix of sunshine and occasional high clouds to go along with our comfortable early spring temperatures.  If you've been here all winter, I think it's safe now to congratulate yourself for making it through!

The latest 5-day forecast can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab at the top of the page.

transition day... (am.28.feb.13)>

We've still got some scattered clouds around the area at sunrise this morning, but as far as I'm aware, there were nothing more than a couple of brief, light sprinkles/showers here along the mountains overnight.  My low temperature has been 43.2F (6.2C), and it's currently 44.4F (6.9C).  Humidity is 54%.

There is still a weakening area of low pressure swirling around in western Kashmir early this morning, and that has kept the atmosphere over Himalayan north India unsettled, with occasional showers and thundershowers still popping up to our northwest.  This system will continue to shift eastward and die during the next 12 hours or so, but lingering instability could still stir up an isolated shower or thundershower until this evening.  Today is kind of a "transition" day into some much more pleasant weather ahead.

High pressure in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will be gradually building across northern India as we head into the weekend, triggering a healthy warming trend that should last into at least early next week.  Afternoon clouds/fog are always potential spoilers here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, but right now it looks like we can look forward to a good amount of sunshine and a relatively dry air mass during the first few days of March.  The season's warmest temperature has been 60.8F (16.0C), which occurred on Monday -- we should rise well beyond that this weekend.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

thundershower risk... (pm.27.feb.13)>

Update @ 8:21pm... We're still in a precarious position, with the final shot of upper-level energy/circulation moving across Kashmir and northern HP tonight.  There have been a few thundershowers to our west-northwest since sunset, and it's still mostly cloudy, breezy and unsettled.  Current temp: 46.9F (8.3C), with 70% humidity.

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Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.5F (5.3C) -- around 7:20am
High temp: 56.5F (13.6C) -- shortly past midnight
Rainfall: 0.80" (2.0cm)

It's partly cloudy, calm and relatively pleasant as we approach sunset this evening -- a far cry from what was happening earlier today.  Wind gusts this morning (especially before 8am or so) were among the strongest I can remember around here, and a few periods of thundershowers kept us in and out of the rain until the early afternoon.  The mildest temps of the day occurred during the wee hours while most of us were sleeping, while the coldest temperatures happened during rainy periods between about 6am and 1230pm.

There are still some question marks overnight.  Our storm system's circulation center is located over northern Pakistan, due west of Srinagar, and will continue to gradually weaken as it begins to shift eastward through J&K during the next 12 to 18 hours.  There is fresh thundershower development over parts of northern Pak and Kashmir this evening, indicating a still unstable atmosphere over the western Himalayan region.  We'll have to watch during the next few hours to see if things stabilize after sunset, or if there could be another round of thundershowers threatening overnight.  Even on Thursday, despite much-improved conditions, an isolated shower or thundershower is not impossible.

It still looks like we're in line for some really good stuff as March arrives.  Significant warming is expected throughout all layers of the atmosphere between Friday and Monday, while drier air takes hold across northern India.  Unless unforeseen mountain micro-climate factors spoil things for us here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, we should be reveling in genuine springtime comfort in a matter of just a few days...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy with a continuing chance of a round of thundershowers moving through.
low: 7C (44F)

THURSDAY:
an isolated shower or thundershower?  otherwise a mix of sun and some clouds.  milder temps.
high: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear skies.
low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY (1ST OF MARCH):
sunshine and a few clouds.  warming trend.
high: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:
mostly sunny with pleasant temps.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably mild.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 18C (64F)

MONDAY:
sunshine and occasional clouds.  warmest temps of the year.
morning low: 11C (52F)
daytime high: 18C (65F)

ferocious... (am.27.feb.13)>

*Update @ 3:17pm... Drier air has swept in aloft, but there's still a lot of low-level moisture here along the mountains -- that means we'll still have to watch for potential thundershower development for a few more hours.  My current temp is now up to 50.2F (10.1C) with 77% humidity.

*Update @ 1:19pm... There have been a couple of more rounds of showers since last report, the most recent one included a period of small hail and very heavy rain.  I have 0.80" (2.0cm) in my rain gauge, and the current temp is 48.0F (8.9C).  Satellite pics show a sharp clearing line just to our southwest, but it remains to be seen if it will be for real here along the mountain slopes, or if there will be more thundershower development during the afternoon/early evening.

*Update @ 8:26am... I don't know if it's the same story all over town or not, but my power has fluctuated on and off at least a dozen times since the high winds kicked in around 1:30am or so.  My temp is also fluctuating wildly -- now back up to 44.4F (6.9C).

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What a nasty morning.  I've recorded 0.35" (9mm) of rain since thundershowers began sometime after about 3am.  It was a balmy 56.5F (13.6C) until the rain started, then my temp here in the upper part of town has plummeted to a current 41.9F (5.5C).  And then there's the issue of extremely strong wind gusts.

Our upper-level storm center is located over northern Pakistan early this morning, and will be moving slowly toward the northeast today and this evening.  We should see occasional showers and thunderstorms until the system moves northeast of us and weakens late tonight.  I think it's possible that we could get some breaks in the clouds from time to time, but any sunshine is only going to destabilize the atmosphere and allow the development of more thunderstorms.

Snow has made it down to the 2300m/7500ft level, it appears, but accumulating/heavier snow should remain well above us.

The good news is that we are in for a very rapid, dramatic warm-up in the wake of this storm -- just in time for the weekend, and the arrival of March.  We can look forward to, by far, the warmest weather of 2013.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

yet another storm... (am.26.feb.13)>

It's mostly cloudy at sunrise this morning.  I've recorded an overnight low of 49.1F (9.5C), which is the mildest in my books since the early morning of the 23rd of December.  We're not going to get the nice sunshine today that we were able to enjoy yesterday during the morning and early afternoon hours, but a very mild air mass is already in place, and that could allow temperatures to rise slightly above 60F for the second day in a row.

A strong storm system centered over Afghanistan this morning is already well-developed, and edging slowly to the east.  There is a large pool of much colder air in the upper-atmosphere associated with this system, and that's going to make for some major instability across northern India by tonight and Wednesday.  We may see a couple of thundershowers popping up by late today, but the best chance of thunderstorms with potentially heavy rainfall will be on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.  Computer models are showing very impressive rainfall amounts -- on the order of 3-5cm (1.2-2.0") -- which could bring us close to 25cm (10") of rain for our final February total.  We might as well end a very wet month with another round of significant rain!

With much colder air in the upper-levels, there will likely be another heavy dumping of snow above 2500m/8200ft or so, which will give us even more insurance for our springtime water supply.

This storm will exit early Thursday, with a rapid return to pleasant temperatures for the Feb/March transition -- and it's still looking like the weekend will feature very nice early spring-like weather conditions.

I'll post updates at the top of this page if we get any developing action later today.


Monday, February 25, 2013

highest of 2013... (pm.25.feb.13)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 60.8F (16.0C) -- warmest since 9th December, 2012
Rainfall: none

Clouds and patchy fog cover most of the area before sunset this evening, but the sunshine was firmly in control until the early afternoon, allowing us to crack 60F (15.5C) for the first time since way back in early December.  It's hard to call 60F 'warm', but with all that sunshine earlier today it certainly felt great.

This evening's fog will dissipate quickly after dark, but then we'll shift our attention to the west, where a new storm system is already developing over extreme eastern Iran.  A couple of today's computer models are painting a more robust scenario for late Tuesday through Wednesday as the center of this system shifts eastward.  With moist and warmer air trying to push into northern India ahead of the storm, it looks like we could see some significant thunderstorm activity as the upper-level energy swings through, along with the potential for 3-4cm (1.2-1.6") of rain -- most of it happening on Wednesday.  The various computer model projections are far from unanimous at this point, so it will be interesting, as usual, to see how it all comes together.

Our recent warming trend will reverse itself for about 48 hours during mid-week, but then we should see a rapid rebound in temperatures just in time for March's arrival on Friday.  In fact, with a drier air mass in place over the weekend, we may be rising above normal for the first time in a few weeks.

MONDAY NIGHT:
fog dissipating, but skies will remain partly cloudy overnight.  rather mild.
low: 9C (49F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thundershower developing late in the day.  mild temps.
high: 16C (61F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of a few thundershowers.
low: 10C (50F)

WEDNESDAY:
clouds and just a few peeks of sun.  periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  turning cooler again.
high: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
a left-over shower or two... mainly in the morning.  otherwise partly cloudy.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY (1ST OF MARCH):
sunny to partly cloudy.  warming up.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY:
mostly sunny skies -- warmest of the season.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 18C (64F)

rising temps... (am.25.feb.13)>

We have some very thin high clouds across the area at sunrise this morning, otherwise it is mostly clear and quite mild.  My overnight low was 46.9F (8.3C), while humidity has been hovering right around 60%.

Sunshine and increasing high clouds are expected today, with the potential also of some cumulus clouds developing over the mountains again this afternoon.  Still, it is looking like a fine late February day, with a good chance of this being the warmest day since the 9th of December, as we approach 60F (15.5C).  Depending on cloud cover or lack thereof, tomorrow (Tues) could be even warmer.

Another storm system will be on approach late Tuesday into perhaps early Thursday, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, but then we should dry out and warm up considerably for the first weekend of March.

As usual, I'll post a full five-day forecast update this evening.  Enjoy the spring preview!

Sunday, February 24, 2013

seasonal transitions... (pm.24.feb.13)>

*Update @ 8:50pm... The warmest temperature I've recorded during 2013 (and since the 9th of December) has been 58.8F (14.9C) on the 14th of this month.  If clouds don't spoil the show, we should finally exceed that, either Monday or Tuesday.  The normal high for these last few days of February is around 62F (17C), so..... it's time.

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Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
Afternoon high temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
Rainfall: none

A calm and serene Sunday evening is underway, with clear to partly cloudy skies at sunset.  There was a build-up of clouds from late morning into late afternoon, but the sun only disappeared for a short time, allowing temperatures to warm up dramatically after a chilly early morning start.

The weather headlines for the coming week feature milder temperatures, but also yet another storm system to keep our eyes on.  The milder temps are effective immediately, as a weak ridge of high pressure sits over northern India during the next 48 hours or so.  In fact, it is likely that we'll be experiencing the warmest weather since the second week of December -- a sign that winter is finally starting to lose its grip.  The ongoing battle between sun and clouds will determine just how high temps might go between tomorrow (Mon) and Wednesday.

A fresh storm system moving in late Tuesday will stall that warm-up, and bring us a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms during the mid-week period.  Right now the best chance of rain appears to be on Wednesday, with things calming down again on Thursday, just in time for the transition to March.  Then, there are hints of some truly spring-like temperatures by next weekend.

SUNDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear skies.  not as cold.
low: 8C (46F)

MONDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  milder temps.
high: 15C (59F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.
low: 9C (48F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with a chance of a thundershower by late afternoon or evening.  warmest of 2013?
high: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY:
both clouds and some sun at times.  good chance of a round or two of showers and thunderstorms.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY:
an early morning shower possible, otherwise a mix of sun and some clouds.  slightly cooler.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY (1ST OF MARCH):
sunshine and a few clouds.  temps close to normal.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 17C (62F)

a step forward... (am.24.feb.13)>

Rapid and dramatic clearing has taken place overnight as our recent storm system races off to the east.  Skies are totally clear just before sunrise on this Sunday morning.  My low temp has been 40.6F (4.8C), and the total rainfall since Friday stands at 1.82" (4.6cm).  That brings our February total up to a whopping 8.16" (20.7cm) which is almost exactly double the normal amount!

The sunshine early this morning is fantastic, but based on our recent track record, I'm concerned that it may not last.  The humidity is currently 75%, indicating plenty of lingering moisture in the air.  As the sun gets to work on this moist atmosphere (not to mention the very moist ground), we could see cloud development as the day wears on, along with a few isolated PM showers.  Or, we could escape that whole routine altogether if the upper-levels have warmed enough to squash any instability.  Whatever the case, today is already way ahead of yesterday and Friday in terms of the pleasantness factor.

We should also be making great gains in the temperature department during the coming few days.  I haven't had 60F (15.5C) on my thermometer since the 9th of December -- so we're way overdue for some genuinely mild temps.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

when will it end?... (pm.23.feb.13)>

*Update @ 8:48pm... Light rain in progress.  Storm total rainfall has now reached 1.80" (4.6cm) since the measurable rain began yesterday (Fri).  We may finally be getting into the very backside of this storm system, as the storm circulation center itself is now moving into western Haryana.

*Update @ 7:34pm... Just updated rainfall stats (below).  Moderate rain continues to fall, and shows no signs of letting up during the next couple of hours at least.  My temp here on Tushita Road is hovering near 42F (5.6C), with the snow line remaining well above upper Dharamkot and Galu Temple.

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Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.6F (4.2C) -- 11:15am
High temp: 48.5F (9.2C) -- shortly past midnight
Rainfall since 7am: 1.46" (3.7cm) -- as of 7:30pm (updated)
Storm total rainfall: 1.72" (4.4cm) -- as of 7:30pm (updated)

Well... it has been one heck of a rainy day, to say the least.  It is still raining moderately at dusk this evening, with snow piling up in the mountains above.  One look at the temperature stats (above), and you can see that it has been an unusual day.  The high temp occurred shortly after midnight, and the low temp occurred during heavy rain during the late morning.  It would be fair to say that it has been COLD for the latter part of February.

The upper-level circulation center responsible for all of this wet weather is now located over the extreme southwestern corner of Punjab.  It will move slowly eastward overnight, winding up just to the northeast of Delhi by early tomorrow morning, then rapidly weakening as it continues to the east on Sunday.  The orientation of the Dhauladhar range has been a perfect compliment to this storm's movement, squeezing out the maximum amount of precipitation from the atmosphere, and surpassing most of the computer model projections.  It looks like we're in line for several more hours of significant rainfall before it starts to taper off.

Sunday is going to be a transitional day, with a combination of clouds, a few lingering showers, but also an increasing chance of some sunshine reappearing.  The rest of the coming week will be active and interesting.  The mildest air of the year will try to nudge into northern India, but yet another storm system will also be swinging through late Tuesday and Wednesday.  This means that we could add even more to our massive Feb 2013 rainfall totals before it's all over.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
 cloudy and cold with rain showers gradually diminishing.
low: 4C (40F)

SUNDAY:
a few lingering showers possible, with clouds giving way to some sunshine.
high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
becoming mostly clear.  not as cold.
low: 7C (45F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and mainly afternoon clouds.  milder, but still below normal for late feb.
high: 14C (57F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with an isolated late PM shower possible.  warmest of 2013?
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY:
partly cloudy with a good chance of a period or two of rain and thundershowers.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY:
both sun and clouds.  chance of a shower or two.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

rainy saturday... (am.23.feb.13)>

*Update @ 4:46pm... Rainfall since 7am has now reached 1.06" (2.7cm) -- storm total rainfall is now 1.32" (3.4cm).  Still no indication that this rain is going to be finished anytime soon, in fact, there are hints of another moderate to heavy band of rain moving in from the southwest later this evening.  Current temp: 42.1F (5.6C).  Heavy snow falling above roughly 2400m7900ft.

*Update @ 2:31pm... There have been a couple of short breaks in the action during the past few hours, but currently it is raining again -- moderately and steadily.  My rain gauge now shows 1.10" (2.8cm) for a storm total -- 0.59" (1.5cm) of that has occurred in the past 4.5 hours.  No sign of any kind of significant improvement this afternoon.  Current temp: 42.4F (5.8C).

*Update @ 10:05am... Getting hammered pretty hard... 0.25" (6mm) of rain in the past half hour has indeed doubled our rainfall total for this entire storm thus far.  Now 0.51" (1.3cm).  My temp has dipped to 41.0F (5.0C), with humidity fluctuating between 95 and 100%.

*Update @ 9:00am... It looks like our next batch of rain, which may be the most significant yet, is advancing from the south.  If it hangs around for a while, we'll quickly double the amount of rain we've received since yesterday.  Current temp: 45.0F (7.2C).  Humidity: 77%.

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There was only an additional 0.06" (2mm) of rain overnight, in spite of the thunder and lightning show around 3am -- that brings storm total rainfall up to 0.26" (7mm).  My low temp here in the upper part of town was 42.4F (5.8C), and it is currently 44.8F (7.1C).

Lots of multi-layered clouds are evident on satellite pics across eastern Pakistan and northern India this morning, out ahead of an upper-level circulation that continues to intensify over central Pakistan.  The flow aloft will remain from the south-southwest throughout the day, which should keep us pretty much socked in with clouds and occasional rain.  There may be enough instability for a couple of thundershowers as well.  The latest projections of the computer model guidance suggest an additional 1.5-2cm (.60-.80") of rain, mainly occurring today and tonight -- though a few showers may linger on Sunday as well.

The snow line is way up the mountain... below Triund but above Magic View... and will probably not make it much further down than that, due to the fact that temps aloft may actually warm up slightly between now and Sunday morning.

Stay tuned for updated info throughout the day...

Friday, February 22, 2013

another wet weekend... (pm.22.feb.13)>

*Update @ 8:59pm... There are only a few sprinkles and very light showers happening right now, with cloudy skies and gusty winds.  I have a temp of 48.5F (9.2C) and 66% humidity.  Current satellite pics show a lot going on from Pakistan into northwestern India as the atmosphere responds to the developing storm system to our west.  Still waiting for the rain to increase in intensity either later tonight or tomorrow...

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Friday's stats:

Low temp: 43.3F (6.3C) -- around 4:30pm
High temp: 55.9F (13.3C) -- just after 12:30pm
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm) -- as of 7:00pm

Skies are totally overcast at sunset this evening, with a few very light showers scattered around the area.  It has been an interesting day, with a mix of clouds and sun (and even some random sprinkles) until 2:30pm or so when clouds thickened and thundershowers began developing.  Temperatures have fluctuated all day in response to sun, clouds and showers.

An upper-level storm circulation continues to develop over eastern Afghanistan this evening, and will then move eastward into central Pakistan by tomorrow morning, and eventually to northeast of Delhi by Sunday morning.  The counter-clockwise rotation around this system will pull moisture northward along the mountains until late Saturday night, and that will keep occasional rain and even a few thundershowers likely.  The missing ingredient -- and a sign of the changing seasons -- will be the lack of significantly colder air associated with this storm.  That should keep the snow line well up-mountain from us here in McLeod, where a couple of feet of fresh snow will be likely around Triund and above.

Gradual improvement is expected on Sunday, with milder temperatures and a moderately unsettled atmosphere to hold sway across northern India during the first part of next week.  There will be another storm system moving in by mid-week, but right now it looks like it may remain just to our north, as warmer air builds across the Plains to our south.

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy with occasional rain showers, along with a chance of some thundershowers.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy and unseasonably chilly.  periods of rain likely, with some thunder possible as well.
high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
cloudy skies, with more rain likely.
low: 5C (41F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy.  good chance of a lingering shower or two.
high: 12C (53F)

MONDAY:
 a mix of sun and clouds.  milder.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with a slight chance of a PM shower.  temps on the rise.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

WEDNESDAY:
both clouds and some sun, with a chance of a couple of rain showers.  warmest of 2013?
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

still developing... (am.22.feb.13)>

*Update @ 4:37pm... It's now totally cloudy with some fog here in the upper part of town.  Lots of thunder and lightning as well, although I've only had light rain showers so far.  The temp here has quickly dropped to the new low of the day -- 44.1F (6.7C), with humidity just now rising above 90%.

*Update @ 3:19pm... Scattered thundershowers are popping up.  I've seen very little rain so far, but the thunder has been rumbling since just before 3pm.  There could be some small hail if these thundershowers gain any momentum late this afternoon and evening.

*Update @ 12:49pm... We've had some sunny breaks in the midst of the clouds up to now, with things still looking pretty disorganized from the satellite perspective.  The main upper-level circulation is just now becoming evident over eastern Afghanistan, and that will lead to a maturing storm system during the coming 12-18 hours or so.  This morning's computer model projections are narrowing in on the 3-4cm (1.2-1.6") range for rainfall totals by very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  But we're certainly not getting off to a very fast start.

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Other than gusty winds and just a few very light rain showers, there has been nothing very noteworthy about our developing storm system so far.  I've only had a trace of rainfall up to now, the overnight low was 44.8F (7.1C), and early morning humidity stands at 47%.  Skies are partly to mostly cloudy at 8am.

The preliminary wave of energy which moved into northern India last evening is now lifting northeastward away from us, as we await the development of the main circulation center of our weekend storm system.  Upper-level energy is diving southeast from central Asia this morning, and will cause that low-pressure "spin" to form along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border by this evening.  More moisture will be drawn northward ahead of it, bringing us an increasing likelihood of significant rainfall later today through late Saturday night, with a few showers possibly lingering into Sunday as well.

As I've been mentioning, there isn't a very impressive shot of colder air expected to accompany this system, so snowfall should remain quite high up the mountain -- mainly above 2400m/7900ft or so.

I'll post updates at the top of this page, as necessary.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

inclemency... (pm.21.feb.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 44.8F (7.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 55.2F (12.9C) -- around 1:00pm
Rainfall: trace

We started out with some high thin clouds this morning, with even some glimpses of sun until the very early afternoon.  Since then, the clouds have been thickening up, gusty winds have started to blow, and a few very light rain showers have begun.  Snow showers are already underway higher up in the mountains as well.

This is just the very beginning of a brand new storm system which is going to be our main weather feature this coming weekend.  The main center of circulation itself hasn't even developed yet -- that will happen tomorrow into early Saturday morning -- bringing us a better and better chance of significant rainfall.  The latest data projects precipitation in the 3-6cm (1.2-2.4") range between tonight and early Sunday morning, which is remarkably similar to the amounts we received just last weekend.  The snow line should remain well above McLeod Ganj, but as always, we'll have to keep a close eye on it as the battle between different air masses is waged along our mountain slopes.  One thing is for certain, there will be another couple of feet in the vicinity of Triund and above, which will be another great contribution toward our springtime water supply.

By Sunday, we may see improvements, but lingering instabilty is going to keep a good chance of some scattered showers in the forecast.  Beyond that, the atmosphere continues to look unsettled, with another chance of rain towards the middle of the week.  Temperatures stand little chance of getting very close to normal (highs around 62F/17C) as we close out the month.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and windy at times.  increasing chance of a few rain showers.
low: 6C (43F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy with occasionally gusty winds.  more rain showers developing.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
cloudy and windy at times, with periods of rain likely.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
cloudy with occasional rain.  unseasonably cold.
high: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY:
partial clearing possible, but still a good chance of a few lingering showers.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  milder.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with a chance of a few PM showers.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

our wet feb... (am.21.feb.13)>

High clouds started moving in just after 4am this morning in association with an upper-level disturbance that is just a precursor of the storm system expected to develop and move across northern India this weekend.  My overnight low was 44.8F (7.1C), but it is currently 47.8F (8.8C), with humidity only 36%.

So far this week we've been dealing with wild swings between sunshine, clouds, fog and even some light rain showers -- thanks to an active, fast-moving jet stream overhead, along with an unstable air mass here along the mountains.  We should see a lot of high cloudiness today, along with a risk of a period of fog and perhaps a rain shower or two later in the day, once again.

The next round of significant rainfall will hold off until tomorrow (Fri) through Saturday night or early Sunday, as a deep trough of low pressure organizes just to our west.  The data this morning is still pointing to precipitation amounts averaging near 4cm (1.6"), which is very similar to what we received last weekend.  I've recorded 16.5cm (6.49") for the month of February up to this point, which is way above normal already.  It's looking like we could end up with double the amount of normal Feb rainfall.


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

even more moody... (pm.20.feb.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.3F (6.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 57.6F (14.2C) -- at 2:20pm 
Rainfall: 0.15" (4mm)

The sunshine definitely won the weather battle until about 2:30pm today, but thereafter, we've had a mish-mash of clouds, peeks of sun, some fog, and even a period of showers with thunder between 3:30 and 5:00pm.  The foggy gloom has thickened once again just before sunset this evening.  Despite all that, my high temp today was the warmest in almost a week, but still several degrees below normal for the date.

There are scattered instability-induced thundershowers along the front ranges of the mountains from western Kashmir into central Himachal Pradesh, which should continue to die out after sunset.  The stage is now being set for our next significant weather-maker which is on its way for the weekend.  Upper-level low pressure will be gradually developing over Afghanistan and Pakistan during the coming 48 hours or so, then move across northern India between late Friday night and early Sunday.  Precipitation is already running well above normal for the month of February in our area, and it still looks like we are going to be adding significantly to the tally in the coming days.  Once again, there is a discrepancy among the various computer models -- from about 3 to 7cm (1.2-2.8") of liquid-equivalent precip being forecast -- but no matter how you slice it, it looks like a healthy amount is on the way.

Although temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year, right now it appears that it's going to be too warm for snow to make it much below the 2500m/8200ft level as this system moves through.  But please stay on top of updates, as we know how fickle (and unpredictable) the snow line can be.

There is no sign of a return to a quiet weather pattern next week, with an active jet stream and more potentially wet weather waiting in the wings.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
lingering clouds and fog giving way to mostly clear skies.
low: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY:
increasing clouds.  one or two showers possible during the PM.
high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a couple of rain showers.
low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY:
clouds, with a peek or two of sun possible.  occasional periods of rain likely, with some thunder possible as well.
high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool, with periods of rain likely.
low: 7C (44F)
high: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY:
becoming partly cloudy, but still a chance of a couple of rain showers.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  milder temps.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

another attempt... (am.20.feb.13)>

The sun is just now peeking over the mountains, with mostly clear skies across the area early this morning.  My overnight low here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center has been 43.3F (6.3C), and the humidity is 54% to start the day.

Things look very nice at the moment, but the morning sun the past couple of days hasn't been able to hold on, with clouds and fog developing during the afternoon hours.  We'll have to be prepared for that to happen again today, thanks to this lingering moisture still in place along the front slopes of the mountains.  Also be aware of the risk of an isolated shower/thundershower during the late afternoon before skies clear again around or just after sunset.  If all of the gloom fails to develop today, then we'll just consider ourselves fortunate.

Our next storm system is still on track to begin affecting us late Thursday night or Friday.  As I mentioned last night, it looks very similar to our storm last weekend, apart from the fact that temperatures shouldn't be as cold.  Computer models are coming up with 2-4cm (0.8-1.6") of rainfall for our area by Sunday morning, with heavy snow likely in the mountains above 2500m/8200ft.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

sun-clouds-fog... (pm.19.feb.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 42.8F (6.0C)
Afternoon high temp: 54.7F (12.6C) -- at 2:45pm
Rainfall: trace

We've been dealing with thick clouds and fog once again late this afternoon/evening, but today it was a little later developing -- mainly after about 3pm.  I heard some thunder just before 4:30pm, and there have been a few sprinkles in town this evening.  Sunshine and occasional clouds from the morning into the early afternoon allowed our high temp to rise to its mildest since Thursday of last week.

Clouds should dissipate very quickly this evening after sunset, but with a moist air mass remaining trapped here along the mountains, we could see the same development of clouds, fog, and random sprinkles once again tomorrow.  Fortunately, there will be a few hours of sun as well, helping our temps to continue their slow moderation.  Definitely not a super pleasant late-winter pattern, but it could be worse.

And it looks like it will get worse as we approach the weekend.  Yet another significant storm system is expected to develop to our west by Friday, sweeping eastward across northern India on Saturday and perhaps into early Sunday.  This looks like nearly a repeat of what we just experienced last weekend, although the good news is that temperatures shouldn't be as cold this time around.  Even into next week the weather pattern should remain quite active, with little chance of a streak of sunny and warmer days.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
 a shower in the area this evening?  otherwise clearing skies.
low: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY:
both clouds and sun.  an isolated PM shower?
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy.
low: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY:
the sun/cloud battle continues.  temps still below normal for late feb.
high: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY:
clouds and a few peeks of sun.  good chance of a few rain showers in the area.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain likely.  cooler.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY:
clouds giving way to some sun.  but still a chance of a couple of lingering showers.  too cool for the season!
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)