the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Friday, February 15, 2013

storminess returns... (am.15.feb.13)>

*Update @ 2:59pm...  Some light rain showers started around 12:50pm, but so far the rain has been barely measurable.  The temp has dropped to 43.3F (6.3C) in the last couple of hours, and the humidity reading has climbed to 78%.

*Update @ 12:32pm... My temp hasn't budged all day... currently 49.1F (9.5C).  The winds died down temporarily late this morning, but are howling again now.  Satellite pics show a lot of cloudiness across northern India, but apart from the higher mountains, rain/snow has been spotty so far.  The atmosphere is slowly and steadily moistening up, but it remains to be seen whether or not much precipitation will be developing.

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Those gusty winds we love so much returned late last evening, and continue this morning.  It is cloudy, with some snow showers above 2700m/8900ft or so, but only a few random sprinkles at my location thus far.  I've recorded an overnight low of 48.7F (9.3C), with the current temp hovering around 49F (9.4C).  Humidity is just 46%.

The inconsistency among the computer model data hasn't resolved itself, based on the latest info this morning.  A large upper-level storm system is over the middle of Afghanistan this morning -- it will dive into extreme southern Pakistan by this evening, then lift northeastward to just south of the Delhi NCR by Saturday evening.  At the same time, a batch of much colder air is sagging southward across the western Himalayan region.  Only a moderate amount of moisture from the Arabian Sea is getting pulled into the mix so far, and I think that's one of the reasons the computer models are having a hard time getting a handle on how this will all come together.

There are already scattered rain and snow showers occurring from central Pakistan into central and northern India, but no well-organized area of precipitation just yet.  Unless there are major changes, I think we'll see 1-3cm (0.40"-1.20") of liquid-equivalent precip in our immediate area by Sunday.  Atmospheric temperature profiles continue to show a good probability of rain mixing with or changing to snow as low as 1600m/5200ft by late tonight and Saturday -- so that will be something to keep a close eye on and prepare for.

I'll be posting updates as conditions warrant...