the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Friday, February 15, 2013

storminess returns... (am.15.feb.13)>

*Update @ 2:59pm...  Some light rain showers started around 12:50pm, but so far the rain has been barely measurable.  The temp has dropped to 43.3F (6.3C) in the last couple of hours, and the humidity reading has climbed to 78%.

*Update @ 12:32pm... My temp hasn't budged all day... currently 49.1F (9.5C).  The winds died down temporarily late this morning, but are howling again now.  Satellite pics show a lot of cloudiness across northern India, but apart from the higher mountains, rain/snow has been spotty so far.  The atmosphere is slowly and steadily moistening up, but it remains to be seen whether or not much precipitation will be developing.

Those gusty winds we love so much returned late last evening, and continue this morning.  It is cloudy, with some snow showers above 2700m/8900ft or so, but only a few random sprinkles at my location thus far.  I've recorded an overnight low of 48.7F (9.3C), with the current temp hovering around 49F (9.4C).  Humidity is just 46%.

The inconsistency among the computer model data hasn't resolved itself, based on the latest info this morning.  A large upper-level storm system is over the middle of Afghanistan this morning -- it will dive into extreme southern Pakistan by this evening, then lift northeastward to just south of the Delhi NCR by Saturday evening.  At the same time, a batch of much colder air is sagging southward across the western Himalayan region.  Only a moderate amount of moisture from the Arabian Sea is getting pulled into the mix so far, and I think that's one of the reasons the computer models are having a hard time getting a handle on how this will all come together.

There are already scattered rain and snow showers occurring from central Pakistan into central and northern India, but no well-organized area of precipitation just yet.  Unless there are major changes, I think we'll see 1-3cm (0.40"-1.20") of liquid-equivalent precip in our immediate area by Sunday.  Atmospheric temperature profiles continue to show a good probability of rain mixing with or changing to snow as low as 1600m/5200ft by late tonight and Saturday -- so that will be something to keep a close eye on and prepare for.

I'll be posting updates as conditions warrant...