the latest...

SATURDAY EVENING... Today's high temp was the warmest I've recorded since the 20th of December, exactly one month ago...

Thursday, February 14, 2013

indecisiveness... (pm.14.feb.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 47.5F (8.6C)
Mid-day high temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
Rainfall: none

Skies are mostly cloudy at sunset this evening -- the clouds have been thickening since shortly before noon.  There was plenty of sunshine this morning, however, and that nudged my high temp on Tushita Road to its new high for 2013.  Unfortunately, we're headed back down during the next few days.

It has been quite a long time since I've seen such confusion among computer models about a storm system.  I just finished looking through all the data and the various atmospheric profile projections during the coming 60 hours or so, and I'm seeing precipitation forecasts ranging from less than 1cm (0.40") all the way up to 5.5cm (2.2").  There is general agreement on the movement of the storm's center of circulation, and the arrival of dramatically colder air -- but all kinds of disagreement on how much moisture will be available for this system to work with.

Here's the overview:  A very dynamic upper-level disturbance currently over extreme eastern Iran will move into southern Pakistan by tomorrow (Fri) morning, then lift east-northeastward across Rajasthan, the Delhi NCR and eventually Uttarakhand by Sunday noon.  Unseasonably cold air will flow into northern India as this storm moves through, with the bulk of precipitation most likely remaining to our south in the Plains.  It seems that the computer models are having a hard time resolving how all of this will interact with the southwest-facing mountain ranges -- and that is what will determine our fate.

At any rate, expect a turn to colder temperatures along with an increasing chance of showers during the next 24 hours.  It still looks like we could see a rapid turn-over to snow at some point, if and when the precipitation really gets going.  Of course, I'll try to keep you updated as all of this evolves.

Improvements should start on Sunday, with a gradual temperature rebound during the first part of next week.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy skies.  chance of a couple of light rain showers developing.
low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY:
mostly cloudy and turning colder.  good chance of a few light rain showers, possibly mixing with or changing to snow during the PM.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and cold, with periods of rain and/or snow showers likely.
low: 2C (35F)

SATURDAY:
a few periods of snow, or rain mixed with snow.  some thunder possible as well.  unseasonably cold.
high: 7C (44F)

SUNDAY:
both clouds and some sun, with a couple of snow showers possible.  still too cold for mid-feb!
morning low: 1C (34F)
daytime high: 7C (45F)

MONDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  milder.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds.  temps remaining below normal.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)