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Tuesday, February 5, 2013

wild, windy and wet... (am.05.feb.13)>

*Update @ 3:27pm... Looking very ugly out there at the moment, with some heavier showers moving in from the south.  Current temp: 45.0F (7.2C), humidity: 84%, very strong wind gusts. The next few hours are going to be critical, in terms of whether or not this storm system is actually going to deliver on its threats.

*Update @ 12:47pm... We've had another 0.07" (2mm) of rain since last report -- a truly paltry amount, in comparison to the extremely strong winds that continue to pound us.  I've just looked over brand new computer model data which is unanimous in projections of very heavy precipitation between this afternoon and early tomorrow (Wed) morning.  This is the point at which I am tempted to lose faith in those projections, but the consistency of all the data is overwhelming.  The upper-level storm center is over eastern Pakistan now, and is expected to move very slowly northeastward and directly overhead during the next 24 hours.  We should see an eruption of heavier rain here this afternoon, and perhaps some thunder as well.  If not, then those computer models are truly out of touch.!

*Update @ 9:09am... It is incredibly windy here on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center -- 50+mph gusts?  There have also been more light to moderate rain showers in the past 45 minutes or so.  My temp has dropped to 44.8F (7.1C), with 86% humidity.  Power going on-off-on-off.

My rain gauge shows another 0.18" (5mm) overnight, bringing our total rainfall up to 2.36" (6.0cm) since late Sunday night.  Temperatures have actually risen a bit during the past several hours -- currently I have 48.7F (9.3C), with humidity at 60%.

We've been in kind of a weird phase of this storm system during the past 12 hours or so -- in between the initial surge of moisture, and the main heart of the system itself, which is still lingering to our southwest.  The center of the upper-level circulation is over central Pakistan this morning.  The counter-clockwise rotation has provided us with a very strong southerly flow overnight; thus the extremely fierce winds and milder temperatures.  All the latest data points to another extended round of heavy precipitation to get going very soon -- perhaps before noon -- lasting through tonight and into Wednesday.

Although it is mild now, and some of yesterday's snow further up the mountain has melted, we can expect a surge of much colder air to filter in this evening and tonight, which is going to allow the rain to change to snow further and further down the mountain.  There are two computer models showing a snow-producing atmosphere at our elevation of 1750m/5700ft here in McLeod by midnight tonight.  Looks like we've got plenty more to watch during the next 24-36 hours.  Stay tuned for updates.