Sunday, February 3, 2013

winter wetness... (pm.03.feb.13)>

*Update @ 9:01pm...  Very light rain falling now here at my location in the upper part of town.  It's 47.8F (8.8C), and humidity stands at 58%.

*Update @ 7:50pm...  Winds are kicking up during the past hour, which indicates that our storm system continues its development.  Satellite pics show an extensive area of cloudiness across northwest India, but only scattered light showers are occurring so far.  Rain chances will be on the rise overnight.


Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 45.0F (7.2C)
Afternoon high temp: 52.8F (11.6C)
Rainfall: trace

We're under thick cloud cover at sunset this evening, but thus far, there have been nothing more than a couple of random sprinkles, at least that I've witnessed.  The increasing clouds held our temps down today -- my high was the coolest in a little more than a week.

The major winter storm system that we've been anticipating all week is finally tangibly taking shape.  The upper-level dynamic energy and circulation that will 'power' this storm is now intensifying over eastern Afghanistan, and will continue to strengthen during the coming 24 hours or so as it nudges slowly eastward.  Already, there is a massive amount of moisture being drawn north-northeastward into the counter-clockwise circulation, which will be the fuel for heavy rain and snowfall in our area between tonight and late Wednesday/early Thursday.  It looks likely that this will end up being our biggest precipitation-producer of this entire winter season -- with the latest computer model data still showing anywhere from about 12-18cm (4.7-7.0") of liquid-equivalent precip for our area before it's all over.

Other data coming in today suggests that atmospheric temperature profiles may be more favorable for a changeover to snow in McLeod and vicinity by Tuesday night into Wednesday.  I'm not sure if I am buying it yet, but it would be smart for us to prepare for that eventuality anyway.  Even if we DON'T get much snow here, it's highly likely that there will be 3-5 feet (or more) of snow above 2200m/7200ft -- which will be the heaviest of the season.

By Thursday morning, the weakening upper-level circulation will be directly overhead, with most of the moisture being pushed off to our east.  That will lead to improving conditions for the very end of the week.  In the meantime, try to stay dry and warm, and check here for pertinent updates.

cloudy with a good chance of some light rain developing.
low: 6C (43F)

mostly cloudy with gusty winds at times.  periods of rain likely.
high: 10C (50F)

cloudy and cold with gusty winds and occasional rain.
low: 5C (41F)

clouds, wind and periods of rain, which could be heavy at times.
high: 9C (48F)

cloudy and cold.  rain likely, possibly mixed with or changing to sleet and/or snow.
low: 2C (36F)
high: 7C (44F)

a few mainly light showers of rain, sleet, and/or snow.  perhaps some sun appearing.
low: 2C (35F)
high: 7C (45F)

partly cloudy and milder.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)