the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Saturday, May 31, 2014

another new high... (pm.31.may.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
High temp: 83.9F (28.8C)
Rainfall: none

We're in the midst of a warm and beautiful evening, with only a few clouds scattered here and there.  Concerns about thunderstorm development ended up being useless, as all of the action has remained well to our north.  Instead, we've had lots of sunshine with only some moderate cumulus development over the mountains, and temperatures which reached a new high for the month, the season, and the year.  As long as nothing dramatic happens during the next 5-6 hours or so, we'll be ending May on a high note.

A very warm and stable air mass in place to our southwest has managed to claim a bit of territory today, forcing the main track of showers and thunderstorms a bit further to our north.  There is still a string of weak disturbances and circulations in the upper atmosphere moving across the western Himalayas, but as of this evening, the vast majority of the rain/thunder development has been across northern Pakistan into central Kashmir.  We're going to have to continue to be on a state of alert for the potential for some of that instability to sink further southward between tonight and late Sunday night -- as all the computer models are keeping us precariously close to the action.  So, the rest of the weekend is truly up in the air.

Then, the most warm, dry and stable looking pattern of this entire spring/summer season is showing up on the extended range charts starting on Tuesday, and continuing into the middle of the month.  Of course all kinds of things could enter the picture to spoil all that, but for now, it's a positive outlook...

CURRENT FORECAST details are always available on the tab above -- and I've just posted information on the approaching monsoon season on another tab at the top of the page.

potential volatility... (am.31.may.14)>

There are some mid-level clouds scattered around the area, otherwise we have mostly clear skies at sunrise this morning.  I've recorded a balmy overnight low temp of 66.9F (19.4C) -- one of the mildest of the season -- and there has been no rainfall since early yesterday afternoon.  This morning's humidity reading is only 32%.

Things are looking quiet here at the start of the day, but that may not be a good indication of what we could be dealing with as the weekend continues to unfold.  We're still on the track of a series of weak upper-level disturbances which will be moving across northern India during the coming 36 to 48 hours or so.  There are indications of a surge of moisture being pulled northward at the same time, and with a very tight temperature gradient (hot to the south, much cooler to our north) in place, we could see some shower and thunderstorm development from northern Pakistan through southwestern Jammu & Kashmir and into much of Himachal at any time.  Hopefully we'll be able to get some hours of nice sunshine over the weekend as well -- but be prepared for sudden twists in the plot!

Our atmosphere should stabilize gradually on Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances being reduced to just isolated PM thundershower potential -- and even that could be erased toward the middle of next week.  Extended range data is pointing to generally dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures as we progress through the first week to ten days of June...

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.

Friday, May 30, 2014

weekend fluctuations... (pm.30.may.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

Our sky is almost totally clear this evening before sunset -- a very nice end to a day of variability.  We started off with mostly cloudy skies, occasional very light rain showers, some thunder, and gusty winds at times, with just a few glimpses of sunshine here and there.  Major improvement kicked in by about 2:30pm however, and that has left us with a mostly sunny, calm and pleasantly warm afternoon and evening.  Despite those showers, the rain was barely enough to register a measurement.

As is so often the case around here, we find ourselves on the battle line between swelteringly hot conditions to our south, and some much cooler air to our north.  Along this line, there is a train of upper-level disturbances tracking from west-to-east, and that's going to keep us flirting with periods of instability all the way through the weekend.  It's also going to cause our temperatures to fluctuate dramatically, depending on the alternating periods of clouds, showers, and sunshine.  Be aware of the fact that showers and thunderstorms could develop at any time of the day or night -- all the way through Sunday night.

The next pattern change is expected by Monday into Tuesday, as more stable conditions set up across most of northern India.  That will mean diminishing rain chances, along with temperatures near or just a bit below normal for the first week of June.

Take a look at the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

fresh obstacles... (am.30.may.14)>

It's cloudy and breezy early on this Friday morning, with some light rain showers scattered around the area as well.  We've had some thunder, spotty light showers, and occasionally gusty winds since just after 3:00am, but there has been only a trace of precipitation at my location in the upper part of town.  The overnight low of 65.3F (18.5C) has occurred just in the past few minutes -- but temps hovered close to 70F (21C) nearly all night long.

The first in a series of new upper-level disturbances is pushing across northern India this morning, as it rides up and over that ridge of high pressure parked to our southwest.  It was looking like shower/thunder action wouldn't show up until sometime today, but it became apparent last evening that we could end up getting something in our neighborhood overnight.  Instability generated by these disturbances is going to put us under the gun for occasional shower and/or thunderstorm development both daytime and nighttime during the coming few days -- but there will be periods of sunshine as well in the midst of it all.

The warmest air mass of the season which finally nudged its way into Himachal the last couple of days will remain very very close -- and that means our air mass holds the potential to deliver seasonably warm temperatures, as long as we can get some sunny breaks between periods of clouds and showers.  A return to stabilization looks likely by Monday or Tuesday...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

new high for 2014... (pm.29.may.14)>

*Update @ 8:59pm... It is 72.1F (22.3C) right now, which is much warmer than it's been at this hour of the evening on any night this year.  With thundershowers lurking to our west, it makes me concerned that this heat-packed atmosphere might be conducive for some of that action to hold together and affect us overnight. ??

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
High temp: 82.3F (27.9C)
Rainfall: none

Some high clouds advancing from the west are obscuring the setting sun, otherwise we have mostly clear skies this evening.  The sun had no trouble staying in control today, and with a summertime air mass surging in from the south, we had the warmest temperatures of the season and 2014 here in McLeod.  Today was only the third time this May that I've recorded a temp above 80F/27C -- the other two times way back at the very beginning of the month.

Our major warm-up today has been anticipated for nearly a week, as we've been watching a huge ridge of summertime high pressure to our southwest as it tries to poke its way northeastward.  By this time of year we should be experiencing these kind of temperatures on a regular basis, but of course this spring/summer season has consistently averaged out cooler than normal.  There are indications that this more seasonably warm air mass could be here to stay --but there are also some concerns that occasional shower and thunderstorm action as we head into the weekend could bring in some temporary cooling as well.

Those shower/thunder chances will be on the increase due to a fresh series of upper-level disturbances and circulations which will be moving in from the west, starting tomorrow.  Already tonight there has been thunderstorm development over northern Pakistan, so our period of dry and stable weather may be on its way out during the coming 24 hours.  However, a return to a quiet and stable pattern should occur by Monday into Tuesday.

The CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

genuine summer... (am.29.may.14)>

It's a balmy morning with full sunshine on the scene.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town was 66.0F (18.9C), and that occurred just in the half hour before the sun rose over the mountain peaks.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and the humidity is 37%.

That early morning low temp is the warmest I've recorded since the very beginning of the month, when we had our warmest few days of the summer season thus far.  However, we're now entering into another phase of summertime weather, as has been advertised during the past week or so.  Barring any surprises (like out-of-nowhere thundershower development), we'll likely end up with our highest temperatures of the season and the year by this afternoon, with even further warming expected tomorrow (Fri) and possibly into Saturday as well.  The reason for this is a large, sprawling high pressure ridge to our southwest which will nudge ever so slightly northeastward during the next couple of days.

Our atmosphere should be stable enough to prevent thundershower development today into most of Friday as well... but a new upper-level disturbance/circulation will ease in from the west by Saturday.  That will give us a better chance of some scattered showers/thunder in the area from Friday night through Sunday.  If we do end up getting hit with a significant thunderstorm at some point, temperatures will temporarily cool of dramatically -- otherwise this summertime air mass will hang with us.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

stabilized... (pm.28.may.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 78.1F (25.6C)
Rainfall: none

There are just a few cloud fragments hanging around, otherwise it's mostly sunny across the area this evening.  We've come up with a fantastic day -- the cloud development over the mountains this afternoon was rather tame, leaving us with lots of sunshine.  Surprisingly, temperatures didn't really gain much ground, remaining on the pleasant side considering the fact that it's the tail end of May.

It was quite a relief to see by noon that the instability today was not going to get out of hand, as it did yesterday.  That prevented anything other than just a couple of very random isolated showers from developing across the mountains of Himachal -- none of them anywhere near us.  Some decisive warming is kicking in in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, and that's done a good job of erasing the lingering cold pockets aloft that contribute to afternoon instability.  It appears that this air mass will remain more stable and settled for the next 36-48 hours or so -- as our temperatures begin to surge to their warmest levels of this season and year.  I'm doubting we'll hit 90F/32C, but it could get pretty close to that by Friday or Saturday.

Computer models are introducing new shower and thunderstorm development by Friday evening, which could be scattered around the area through the weekend.  Even so, it looks like summertime temps will stay with us for the most part.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.

life on the edge... (am.28.may.14)>

We're starting off with another beauty this morning -- clear skies and pleasantly mild temperatures as the sun peeks over the mountains.  I'm recording an overnight low of 62.4F (16.9C), and there has been no rainfall since last report.  The humidity stands at 41%.

Yesterday afternoon's thundershower episode reminds us that we've nearly always got to be on guard here along the Dhauladhars during the warm seasons.  It takes only the most subtle differences in temperatures and wind direction in various layers of the atmosphere to trigger instability -- as you know if you've spent much time here.  Sometimes I get tired of making the "be aware and prepared" comment, but it's really the truth.

Will it happen again today?  The large scale features don't say so, but we'll just have to watch what starts percolating over the mountains toward the noon hour, since the lower levels are going to be warming rapidly this morning.  In general, it looks like we've got a more stable situation lining itself up for a couple of days, but then the chance of scattered showers and thundershowers increases again as the weekend arrives.

Our temperatures haven't warmed up at all in the last three days, but that should change as we finish out the week.  We're going to get a taste of the air mass being produced by a gigantic ridge of high pressure sprawled out to our southwest -- and that is still expected to provide us with our warmest temps of the season and the year during the coming few days.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

dhauladhar realities... pm.27.may.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: 0.87" (2.2cm)

It's generally cloudy to the north, and fair to partly cloudy off to the south this evening, with a few rain showers lingering north-northwest of us as well.  Our sunshine and warm temperatures this morning were dramatically replaced by explosive thunderstorm development over the Dhauladhars during the noon hour -- and that brought us nearly three hours of rain showers, some small hail, gusty winds, and temperatures that plummeted more than 20F from noontime highs.  There's been some nice recovery since about 3:20pm, both in terms of sunshine and temps.

We were victims of our Dhauladhar thunder machine today, which tends to kick in when the atmospheric instability is in a range that is not easily detected by the computer models.  You may have noticed that there was sunshine just downhill from us all throughout our thundery episode this afternoon.  Weak upper-level disturbances riding across the area on a northwesterly flow should diminish and/or disappear altogether during the next two or three days, but it's always smart for us to keep an eye on the afternoon development over the mountains nonetheless, as we learn time and time again.

The major warm-up that has been anticipated for several days now is just around the corner.  It still looks like temperatures will be jumping upward by several degrees between tomorrow (Wed) and Friday, finally taking us into the normal range for the final days of May.  Apart from the mountain thunder risk, the next decent chance of scattered shower/thunderstorm action is entering the picture by the weekend.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

sun, maybe thunder... (am.27.may.14)>

We're starting off with full sunshine again this morning, after a clear and quiet night with no rainfall.  My low temperature here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center has been 62.6F (17.0C), which occurred just before sunrise.  The current humidity reading is 40%.

The main characters are still in play in our weather scenario -- a sprawling ridge of high pressure parked to our southwest, with a northwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere across northern India.  Weak disturbances in that northwesterly flow have triggered isolated to widely scattered afternoon thundershowers on a daily basis in the mountains from Kashmir into Himachal, and we'll have to be aware of that potential again later today.  These things are very hit-and-miss, but when we get hit, we get hit!  Otherwise expect lots of sun, at least during the first half of the day.

The dramatic warm-up we've been anticipating for the latter half of the week still appears to be on schedule.  That big high pressure ridge will attempt to poke further into western/northwestern India, stabilizing our atmosphere a bit, and delivering the warmest temperatures of this entire season and year.  We may be eyeing something close to 90F/32C by Friday or Saturday.  However, a new disturbance could increase our risk of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend...

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Monday, May 26, 2014

generally gorgeous... (pm.26.may.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 78.0F (25.6C)
Rainfall: trace

There are some leftover clouds right along the Dhauladhars before sunset this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  Apart from some building clouds over the mountains for a while that led to a couple of rumbles of thunder and a few brief sprinkles during the mid-afternoon, it has been a really nice day.  Sunshine maintained control, providing us with pleasantly warm conditions once again.

We continue to enjoy temperatures that are much more comfortable than they could be during the waning days of May, but it looks like that will be changing as we progress toward the latter part of the week.  The main feature on the weather charts continues to be a big ridge of summertime high pressure to our southwest, which will continue to expand eastward during the coming several days.  The real warm-up hasn't even begun -- but when it kicks in, I think it's going to be very noticeable. It's starting to look like we could be approaching 90F/32C by this weekend, as long as there aren't any extended periods of clouds or showers to save us from that.

Even with that high pressure ridge building in, we're going to see a general west-northwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere that could deliver occasional disturbances to north India.  That means we can't rule out a sudden period of mainly afternoon thundershowers to cool things down temporarily.  I think by the weekend, something like that will be more than welcome...

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

a week of warming... (am.26.may.14)>

It's a clear and bright Monday morning, with a humidity reading of 40%.  There was no rainfall overnight, and I'm recording a pre-sunrise  low temperature of 61.2F (16.2C).

The month of May is running out of time to produce some truly summertime weather, but it looks like it could finally deliver before all is said and done.  Yesterday I recorded 80F at my location in the upper part of town for the first time since the 2nd of May, and only the fourth time this entire season.  But we've barely begun to feel the effects of a gigantic ridge of high pressure which is anchored over the Arabian Peninsula into southern Iran at the moment, and will be building into westcentral and northwest India as we head toward the latter half of the week.  This is going to allow our temperatures to surge upward dramatically -- making it feel truly HOT as we close out the month.

There is still some concern about mainly afternoon thundershower development, especially today and tomorrow (Tues), thanks to a west-northwesterly upper-level flow that contains a few weak disturbances.  We'll have to keep an eye on cloud development toward the noon hour, and be prepared for that PM shower/thunder potential in the midst of otherwise fine conditions.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

resurgent warmth... (pm.25.may.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)
High temp: 80.0F (26.7C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy and comfortably warm this evening before sunset, at the end of the warmest day since the 2nd of May -- more than three weeks ago.  Although we did have quite a bit of cloud development starting during the late morning, it never really put that much of a damper on the sunshine, and there was never any shower or thunder development in our immediate area.  All in all, fantastic late May conditions.

Satellite pics this evening show a surprisingly large amount of shower/thunder action from northern Pakistan into northern India -- but the relatively dry air mass in place seems to be keeping most of the rainfall on the light side.  This activity scattered around us is evidence of the presence of a few weak disturbances and circulations in the upper atmosphere which are drifting through.  We could still fall victim to a round of thundershowers between tonight and Tuesday, so don't be terribly surprised if something pops up at some point.

Otherwise, the main event of the week will be a strong ridge of summertime high pressure which will continue to build east-northeastward from the Arabian Sea into westcentral India.  Our temperatures today are a taste of what's to come as we make our move toward the May/June transition, and it looks like we'll end up hitting seasonal norms for a change... as early as Thursday or Friday.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

final week of may... (am.25.may.14)>

This morning's low temperature of 64.8F (18.2C) is the warmest I've recorded since back on the 2nd of the month -- and we have mostly clear skies as the sun gets ready to peek over the mountains.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and my current humidity reading is 35%.

An increasingly summer-like weather pattern is shaping up for us during this final week of May, but it may not be totally devoid of some bumps in the road.  Our upper-level pattern has now shifted to the west-northwest, as a giant ridge of high pressure starts to build off to our southwest over the Arabian Peninsula.  Although there's not a lot of available moisture in this air mass, minor disturbances/circulations drifting across the area in that west-northwesterly flow aloft could be enough to trigger some random shower/thunder action, mainly during the afternoon hours over the course of the next few days.  Of course this is kind of 'business as usual' here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, since it is rare that we have zero chances of PM thundershower development during the warm season.

Otherwise, we've also got plenty of sunshine to look forward to in the coming days, with temperatures that should be gradually climbing.  In fact, it's looking more and more likely that we'll be seeing the warmest weather of the season and the year by the latter part of this week.

Keep track of CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, May 24, 2014

just a few risks... (pm.24.may.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 75.9F (24.4C)
Rainfall: trace

There are some dying thundershowers visible way off to the east, otherwise our skies are mostly clear as the sun sinks toward the western horizon this evening.  Today turned out almost exactly according to plan, with lots of sunshine, a mid-day build-up of clouds leading to some isolated showers/thunder during the early to mid-afternoon hours, and high temps close to 76F/24.5C.  Although it looked a bit ominous for an hour or two during the early afternoon, the rain was barely enough to wet the ground.

Our upper-level flow is from the west right now, and will tilt more toward the northwest during the coming few days.  This kind of pattern is a generally uneventful one for us, especially when combined with an atmosphere that is not holding very much moisture.  However, there will be some random minor disturbances/circulations embedded in that flow which could ignite a round of thundershowers on any given day -- especially between the afternoon and early evening hours.  Be aware of that continuing risk in the midst of the otherwise mostly sunny and pleasantly warm conditions.

A little further into the future there are some interesting developments taking place -- in the form of a massive summertime ridge of high pressure which is being projected to gradually expand from the Arabian Peninsula and the northern Arabian Sea into westcentral and northwest India during the middle and latter parts of the coming week.  We'll have to watch this as the days unfold, but if it turns out to be for real, we're going to be making a quantum leap into some much warmer temperatures by the time June arrives.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details by checking the tab at the top of the page.

outlook adjustments... (am.24.may.14)>

It's a much different look out there this morning -- with mostly clear skies greeting the sun as it rises over the mountains.  There was a lot of lightning along with some rumbles of thunder lingering until late last night, but I recorded no additional measurable rainfall here at my location.  That leaves the total between late Thursday night and last evening at 0.45" (1.1cm).  It seemed like more than that, since the numerous showers kept hitting on and off consistently throughout most of the day, but actually, most of the rain itself was on the lighter side.  My overnight low temp has been 61.7F (16.5C), and the sunrise humidity is 42%.

There is much better news to report this morning, as the shifts in the computer models' projections of our changing atmosphere continue in the same vein that began to show up late yesterday.  It seems that a majority of both the dynamic and thermodynamic energy associated with this latest series of disturbances was used up yesterday -- instead of being spread out over the entire weekend into early next week.  It's now looking much more quiet as we progress through the weekend, though there is still a risk of some thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours, mainly in the vicinity of the mountains.  Each day between now and Monday we're going to have to keep a close eye on that potential, otherwise the sunshine is looking plentiful, with temperatures perhaps warming a bit more than previously expected.

A genuine ridge of summertime high pressure is now organizing from the Arabian Peninsula across the Persian Gulf, and is showing signs of poking its nose in our direction toward the middle of next week.  If this trend turns out to be for real, then we will see a major jump in temperatures -- making it finally feel like late May is supposed to feel.  Stay tuned.

CURRENT FORECAST info can always be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Friday, May 23, 2014

plenty of turbulence... (pm.23.may.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.4F (13.0C)
High temp: 71.7F (22.1C)
Rainfall since 7am: 0.22" (5mm)
24 hour rainfall: 0.44" (1.1cm)

There are some light to moderate rain showers in the area this evening, with occasional thunder as well.  Clouds and showers have definitely won the day, with only a couple of fleeting glimpses of sunshine early this morning.  We've even had some very strong and gusty winds on occasion this afternoon, blowing things that aren't securely fastened down all over the place.  It's turned out to be a more turbulent day even than what was expected.

The variety of meteorological factors we've been talking about have converged nearly right on top of us today, keeping lots of shower and thundershower development occurring along a line from eastcentral Pakistan through the northern half of Himachal Pradesh.  The west-to-east upper-level winds have channeled the development along the same general line since late this morning.  The data is looking a bit different this evening for the rest of the weekend into early next week, however, which means that we may have already seen the worst of this bout of wet weather.  There are indications that by late tonight and tomorrow the rain/thunder activity will be much more widely scattered, and even hit-and-miss at times.  We'll have to keep an eye on this during the upcoming data runs tomorrow.

Despite the instability, we should soon see a gradual temperature moderation from the surface into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere occurring.  This will eventually translate into a more settled pattern, along with a fairly dramatic rise in temperatures as we head into the middle of next week.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

on the lookout... (am.23.may.14)>

The sun is trying to fight its way through mostly cloudy skies early this Friday morning.  The sunrise temperature is 66.6F (19.2C), but I'm recording an overnight low of 55.4 (13.0C) which occurred during our late night thundershowers.  Those thundershowers began moving in shortly after 10:00pm, depositing 0.23" (6mm) in my rain gauge here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center before quickly exiting.  The humidity reading this morning is rather low -- at 36%.

That round of thundershowers that drifted in from the northwest last night was a preliminary taste of what we might expect during the coming several days, thanks to an atmosphere that is going to be on the unsettled and unstable side through Monday.  Any shower and thunderstorm action is going to be of the scattered variety -- moving in and out -- leaving us with more dry hours than wet ones over the weekend into early next week.  Computer model data is still looking very inconsistent this morning, with some models showing us getting very little rainfall, and another one or two indicating that we'll get hit hard at some point over the weekend.  Just be aware of changing conditions and don't get caught unprepared.

Temperatures will be entirely dependent on fluctuations between sun, clouds, and occasional thundershowers -- but will remain several degrees cooler than normal for late May, on average.  Extended range data is hinting at a turn to much warmer weather starting during the middle of next week, and it is certainly past time for that.  Between now and mid-June is usually the hottest time of the year here in McLeod Ganj, but my thermometer has only gone above 80F (27C) a few times thus far -- and that was way back during the April to May transition.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

superb for now... (pm.22.may.14)>

*Update @ 9:43pm... Some lightning appearing to the northwest, and satellite pics show a few thundershowers drifting our way from the west-northwest.  We may have some action overnight.  Current temp is a very mild 68.9F (20.5C).

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 77.7F (25.4C)
Rainfall: none

It's one of the most beautiful and comfortable evenings of the season and the year -- with mostly clear skies other than a few streaks of high cirrus clouds, along with very pleasant temperatures.  There was a respectable build-up of clouds over the mountains from the late morning into the late afternoon, but isolated thundershower development to our north and east never got anywhere near us.  Lots of sunshine contributed to the warmest high temp I've recorded since back on the 10th of the month.

The evolving scenario as we move toward the weekend looks like a rather complicated one, with this evening's computer model data showing a lot of disagreement in solutions.  We've got a few disturbances with upper-level energy/circulations trying to drop in from the northwest, as a warmer air mass continues to attempt to approach from the south.  At the same time, we've also got a ridge of high pressure slowly advancing from the west and southwest.  Meteorologically speaking, that paints a very uncertain picture for us during the coming three or four days.

The main issue is that we will be seeing a better chance of a few waves of showers and/or thunderstorms starting as early as late tonight, and continuing through Monday.  However, there could be long quiet periods between any of that action, allowing us to continue to see a good amount of sunshine on occasion.  It looks like the kind of situation when/where we just need to be aware and prepared for sudden changes anytime of the day or night until the weather pattern changes for the better by late Monday into Tuesday.  There are hints of a fairly dramatic rise in temperatures by the middle of next week...

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics can always be found on the tab at the top of the page.

warmest in awhile... (am.22.may.14)>

We have blue skies and full sunshine early this morning, with a humidity reading of 41%.  My overnight low temp here in the upper part of town was 62.2F (16.8C), and there has been no rainfall to report.

There are no clouds threatening from any direction here at the start of the day, but as usual, we'll have to keep an eye on cumulus development over the mountains by mid-day into the early afternoon.  According to the computer model data, our atmosphere should remain fairly stable today, with just a slight chance of a PM thundershower popping up somewhere around the area.  Our temps will probably be at their warmest of the past ten days or so.

A series of upper-level disturbances will begin to affect northern India by tomorrow (Fri), creating an unstable/unsettled period that will last through the weekend into early next week.  Warmer air will be attempting to surge northward as well, and that's going to set the stage for some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity on a daily basis.  I really don't expect any long-term rains that will totally ruin the weekend, but we're going to have to be prepared for some back-and-forth between sunshine and rain/thunder, it appears, along with the temperature fluctuations that go with that.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

real heat is absent... (pm.21.may.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 60.1F (15.6C)
High temp: 75.6F (24.2C)
Rainfall: none

We're in the midst of a quiet and pleasant evening, with partly cloudy skies across the area.  There was some fairly healthy cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon, along with a couple of isolated thundershowers further to our north and east, otherwise the sun has been firmly in control.  Our temperatures were comfortably warm -- but still running several degrees cooler than normal for the season.

Seven of the past eight days have been totally dry in McLeod, thanks to a weather pattern that continues to be rather apathetic for the season.  We're still not getting much of a taste of hot summertime conditions which are usually common by the latter half of May, but neither have we had much rainfall during the past week or more (with the exception of yesterday evening's thundershower).  It seems we've spent much of this spring/summer season in a strange limbo state.

The upper-level pattern is in a readjustment phase right now, as some energy tries to get organized to our west and northwest for the weekend.  This evening's data looks a bit less robust with regard to shower/thunder development between Friday and Monday, but we should still be prepared for a better chance of some occasionally rainy weather during that time frame.  Temperatures should remain in the below normal range -- though this time of year that is actually rather good news.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for details.

morning vs. afternoon... (am.21.may.14)>

We have clear skies as the sun peeks over the Dhauladhars early this morning.  I'm recording a predawn low temperature of 60.1F (15.6C), and there has been no additional rainfall since the 0.37" (9mm) which occurred last evening between 5:30 and 7:00pm.  The humidity reading is currently 40%.

There are no major features on the weather charts right now, but microscale instability factors are in play here along the outer Himalayan ranges as warmer air continues to attempt to surge northward in the surface layers, while pockets of cold air drift through aloft.  That instability reached the tipping point last evening, resulting in the eruption of thundershowers in our neighborhood for the first time in just over a week.  It appears that it will be a bit more stable overall today through Thursday, but as we always talk about here on this blog -- it's a good idea to be prepared for sudden changes during the PM hours if you're planning to be out and about.  Otherwise, a good amount of sunshine in the next couple of days could boost our temperatures a bit higher than they've been recently.

A weak but broad upper-level circulation is expected to settle in just to our west-northwest this weekend, which may set us up for a few days of scattered shower and thunderstorm action across much of Himachal Pradesh.  It won't rain continuously over the weekend, but the chance of more frequent showers/thunder looks higher between Friday afternoon and at least Sunday evening into perhaps Monday as well.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

dry streak abruptly ends... (pm.20.may.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C) -- at 6:15pm during tshwr
High temp: 74.0F (23.3C)
Rainfall: 0.37" (9mm) -- updated @ 8:20pm

The western sky is trying to brighten up a bit this evening, but we still have some light showers and rumbles of thunder occurring as I type.  We had a few sprinkles and brief light showers of rain as early as 1:00-1:30pm, but the main event has been thundershower development overhead just after 5:00pm, which has brought very dark skies, thunder/lightning, gusty winds, and some moderate rain showers during the past hour or so.  Otherwise we've seen a mixture of clouds and sun today, with pleasant temperatures which remain several degrees below normal for May.

Well I guess it was a crazy fantasy to think we could go beyond six full days in a row of dry weather -- considering the kind of year it has been.  We've been on guard for some PM shower/thunder development nearly every day, and it seems that today it was our turn to get hit.  The marginal instability we've been dealing with recently has to release its energy sooner or later.  Apart from the risk of another random episode of thundershowers, we should see relatively calm and quiet weather for the most part as we head through tomorrow and Thursday -- with alternating sunshine and clouds, along with temperatures which could still moderate a few degrees.

By Friday, we've got a disturbance in the upper atmosphere which is going to pivot in from the northwest -- encountering a rather warm and unstable air mass in place over north India.  This will set us up for likely chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening.  Rainfall for the month of May is already significantly above normal, and it certainly looks like we'll be adding to that.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

remaining pleasant... (am.20.may.14)>

*Update @ 5:45pm... We're getting our first showers in more than a week right now -- with some thunder and gusty winds in the area as well.  These should continue off and on for the next couple of hours.  The evening update is coming by 7:00pm.

It's partly cloudy at sunrise, with a humidity reading of 46%.  My overnight low temp here in the upper part of town has been 62.2F (16.8C), and there has been no rainfall since last report.  In fact, it has now been almost exactly one week since we've had any rain at all.

Our general weather pattern is a sluggish one, with a weak southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere which will be gradually turning more to the west-northwest as we progress through the rest of this week.  The main issue to deal with is marginal instability, as the surface layers continue to warm up in comparison to the pockets of cooler air in the higher levels.  Although we haven't seen so much as a drop of rain this past week, a random shower or thundershower (mainly during the afternoon hours) could surprise us at any time, settling the dust and cooling us down temporarily.  Overall, our temperatures continue to run several degrees below normal for the season -- keeping things more pleasant than they often are at this time of year.

A series of slightly more potent disturbances is expected to drop in from the northwest over the weekend, and that could increase our risk of more significant shower or thunderstorm action between late Friday and Sunday evening.  Any rainfall would be of a scattered nature, but we'll have to watch it nonetheless.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.

Monday, May 19, 2014

six days rainless... (pm.19.may.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 75.2F (24.0C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy this evening as the sun sinks toward the western horizon, and for most of the day it's been partly cloudy, actually.  We started out with full sunshine this morning, but clouds developed in the vicinity of the mountains well before noon and challenged the sun from then on.  Temperatures were a bit warmer today, but we're still running several degrees below normal for the season.

We've now logged the sixth day in a row without even a drop of rain -- this time of year that shouldn't be such a big deal, but considering the consistently wet spring and early summer we've endured, it is.  Our atmosphere has been moderately unstable recently, and should remain so for the next several days as well, but that instability coupled with the southwesterly flow aloft has kept any mountain thundershower development to our north and east.  We still have to keep in mind the off-chance of a mainly PM shower or thundershower somewhere around the area, but right now it seems that this dry streak could continue for a few more days.

This mid-May air mass shows signs of warming further as the week progresses, but I'm still doubtful that we'll be able to make it up to where we should be for high temps -- around 83F/28C.  There does appear to be a slightly better chance of some scattered showers and thundershowers as the weekend approaches, so we'll have to watch how that develops.

The CURRENT FORECAST tab above has all the details.

very little drama... (am.19.may.14)>

It's hazy, but there are very few clouds around at sunrise this morning.  My overnight low here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has been 61.2F (16.2C), and there has been no rainfall.  The humidity reading stands at 44%.

We've had five days in a row with absolutely no rain at all -- not even stray sprinkles.  Last night I combed through my data, and I see that it was the middle of February the last time we had such a streak.  Normally during April and May we should have many consecutive rainless days, but of course this year has been abnormal in many ways.  It's hard to say whether this dry streak will continue or not, since we're going to be dealing with a marginally unstable air mass all week long, which could produce a random shower or thundershower on any given afternoon or evening.  For the most part I think we'll escape significant wet weather, but always be prepared for sudden changes if you're planning to be somewhere away from shelter.

There will be some adjustments in the upper-level pattern over the course of this week, but the surface layer is going to gradually warm up... at least according to the latest data.  We could be approaching 80F in the coming several days, but I still doubt that we'll go much above that, keeping us slightly cooler than normal for the season.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

streak of calm... (pm.18.may.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 72.8F (22.7C)
Rainfall: none

We have nice evening sunshine and pleasant temperatures in progress at the moment, with only a few scattered clouds around.  This morning's cloudiness was very sluggish to clear, and never did really allow the sun to take over completely -- and that kept our temps a bit below expectations for the second day in a row.  Still, we have to call it comfortably warm, even if we remain quite a bit cooler than normal for the middle of May.  Today was the fifth day in a row without any rain at all, and believe it or not, that's the first time I've recorded a dry streak like this since way back in mid-February!

A stationary upper-level disturbance and circulation continues to weaken over Afghanistan, as a rather tepid high pressure ridge sprawls across northwest India.  This pattern is an uneventful one for us, really, keeping us from busting into any kind of a seasonable heat wave, but also keeping the instability factor under control.  That's producing this mixture of clouds and sun, pleasant temps, and only a couple of very random mainly PM showers in the higher mountains.

There are no dramatic changes on the charts for us during the coming several days, though our upper-level flow is going to turn from the south-southwest to more of a west-northwesterly direction.  We still can't rule out an isolated thundershower at some point, but any rainfall amounts should be fairly light this week.  Computer models continue to show a warming trend, but I'll be very surprised if we can ever get even as high as 80F, which is still slightly below normal for this time of year.

The CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

noncommittal pattern... (am.18.may.14)>

Mostly cloudy skies blanket the area at sunrise this morning, though the sun is dimly visible at the moment.  I'm recording an overnight low temperature of 61.3F (16.3C), and there has been no rainfall since last report.  Humidity is currently 43%.

We remain in a pattern that is not really committing itself one way or another, and it looks like that's going to remain the case throughout most of this new week as well.  A weak upper-level circulation is sitting over western Afghanistan, while a tentative ridge of high pressure remains across much of northern India.  Neither of these systems is strong enough to totally dominate the pattern, so that's keeping us in a rather 'in between' phase.  This morning's batch of cloudiness should give way to a good amount of sunshine again today, but we still have to be on guard for a random shower or thundershower which could pop up at some point.  But as we've been discussing for days, the risk of anything more than brief, light rainfall is not very high.

A marginally unstable atmosphere will hang with us for the next several days, with just a small chance of some isolated to widely scattered shower/thunder activity now and again.  We'll see both sunshine and occasional clouds this week -- and with a fairly warm air mass in place, any sunshine we get will keep our temps in the pleasantly warm range.  It's still not looking like we're going to be rising above normal for this time of the year, though.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Saturday, May 17, 2014

comfortable for mid-may... (pm.17.may.14)>

Saturday's stats: 

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
High temp: 72.7F (22.6C)
Rainfall: none

We have partly cloudy skies with some haze this evening, at the end of a fairly decent Saturday.  It didn't look very promising early this morning, with overcast skies sticking around until around 10:00am, keeping our temperatures from getting off to a good start.  But the sunshine did a good job of gradually taking control as the day wore on, allowing temps to warm up more than it looked like they might.  Satellite pics show evidence of some isolated thundershowers over the mountains to our east, but none of that got anywhere near McLeod.

We're caught on the dividing line between a weakening upper-level disturbance continuing to spin around over western Afghanistan, and a moderately strong ridge of high pressure still trying to exert its influence over northern India.  This situation is keeping us from enjoying a totally settled atmosphere, and also unstable enough for the development of a few clouds to occur, along with some isolated shower and/or thundershower action in Himachal as well.  I still think significant rain chances will be low -- but we can't entirely rule out a shower as we head through the remainder of the weekend.

The trend among the various computer models is toward a fairly uneventful scenario during much of the coming week.  There are some adjustments in the upper-level pattern which will have to be watched, but in general, things look quiet and progressively warmer.  Even so, it's likely that our high temps will remain a bit below normal as we transition into the final one-third of May.

CURRENT FORECAST details are always available on the tab above.

starting with clouds... (am.17.may.14)>

Clouds have thickened up just in the past hour or so around sunrise -- mainly the mid- and high level variety.  My current temp of 61.0F (16.1C) is also the overnight low, and there has been no rainfall since last report.  The humidity reading is 45%.

The counter-clockwise circulation around a weakening upper-level disturbance over extreme southwestern Afghanistan has forced a batch of cloudiness northeastward into our area, and that's going to rob of us some of our sunshine potential today, at least for a few hours.  Otherwise, it still looks like a building ridge of high pressure across northwest India will prevent that disturbance from ever making much progress in our direction, causing it to weaken further as it lifts off to the northeast.  All week we've been concerned about some widely scattered shower or thundershower action popping up this weekend, but it still appears that we won't see very much of that -- with only relatively brief and light rainfall if it happens at all.  Of course be prepared for a sudden thundershower if you'll be in the mountains away from shelter.

This air mass is a warm one, and will be warming further as we move into the first half of next week.  Any periods of clouds will keep temperatures below their potential, but as soon as the sun breaks out, it won't be long until we see temps climbing fairly close to normal for the season.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

Friday, May 16, 2014

everybody's happy... (pm.16.may.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 75.6F (24.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's a stunner of an evening, with mostly clear skies and pleasant temps during this hour before sunset.  Today has been pretty much a stunning day overall as well, with lots of sunshine, comfortably warm temperatures, and just a moderate build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  We've now had three days in a row without a drop of rain in McLeod, and that's the first time that's happened since the end of April.

Weather patterns are dynamic -- always evolving -- and that's going to be the case this weekend into next week.  Right now there is an upper-level disturbance and circulation centered over eastern Iran which will be slowly moving to the east-northeast during the next two to three days.  At the same time, we've got a building ridge of high pressure over northwest India which is going to create a roadblock, keeping that disturbance from ever being able to penetrate our area.  Computer models have recently backed off considerably on shower and thundershower potential here in Himachal over the weekend, but it still looks like we have a mentionable chance of something popping up between late tomorrow and Sunday evening.  Otherwise, get ready for a good amount of sunshine and temperatures which will warm even further.

Very warm air in the lower levels combined with a bit of cooling aloft is going to provide us with a marginally unstable atmosphere for the majority of next week.  That means we can't rule out a random PM thundershower or two at some point, while we enjoy temps just barely on the cool side of normal for the middle of May.  Personally, I am very glad that we've been able to avoid (so far) the truly hot weather that usually starts to show up by this time of year.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

beautiful... (am.16.may.14)>

It's picture-perfect out there early this morning, with 100% sunny skies and pleasantly mild temperatures.  My overnight low temperature has been 59.9F (15.5C), and there is no rainfall to report.  Humidity this morning stands at 42%.

We've been in the midst of a steady, consistent and reliable improvement in weather conditions since Wednesday, with increasing amounts of sunshine each day, along with temperatures which have rebounded nicely.  A ridge of high pressure with correspondingly warmer air throughout all layers of the atmosphere continues to build across northern India, and should provide us with a very nice Friday.  Even tomorrow (Sat) is looking fairly good, though we could start to feel the effects of a weak disturbance trying to approach from the west.  This next system still looks like it won't be able to do much other than to stir up a handful of random showers or thundershowers over the weekend, with a good amount of sunshine in between.  If you have plans to be out hiking or trekking or camping, etc., just be prepared for a sudden thundershower -- which is always a good idea here along the Dhauladhars anyway.

The overall pattern for next week will be marginally unstable, with temperatures getting fairly close to normal for the season, but some pockets of cooler air aloft providing the potential for some mainly PM shower/thunder development occasionally.  So far we've been spared of a genuine May heatwave -- and that should remain the case for another week or more...

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

comfort zone again... (pm.15.may.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: none

One of the more clear and quiet evenings of this month is in progress, with very few lingering clouds around the area just before sunset.  It has been a beautiful day for the most part, with mid-day cloud development over the mountains leading to just a brief rumble of thunder shortly before 2:30pm, and then lots of sun returning for the latter half of the afternoon.  My high temp (above) was the warmest I've recorded since last Saturday -- though still well below normal for this time of year.

Our weather situation for the coming several days is not a totally uneventful one, but at least there are no really significant storm systems on the horizon.  Uniform warming is already underway, and will continue pretty much unabated into the weekend -- eventually taking us within striking distance of seasonal norms.  However, there will be a weak upper-level system approaching from the west by Sunday, and that will provide us with enough instability to be concerned about the development of a few showers and/or thundershowers starting on Saturday afternoon.  I've been combing through each and every new set of data the last couple of days, hoping this system doesn't turn into something more ominous, but it still looks like it won't be anything nearly as disruptive as our storm system earlier this week.

Further ahead, it doesn't look like we're going to break into a particularly hot stretch of weather, though it is nearly the time of year for that to happen.  We'll be dealing with daily mountain instability issues, along with a mix of clouds and sun and temps warm, but a bit below normal as next week unfolds.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

rebound in progress... (am.15.may.14)>

We have bright sunny skies early on this Thursday morning.  It has been a quiet night, with a low temp of 56.5F (13.6C) and no rainfall.  Humidity this morning stands at 40%.

The main weather event of the coming several days is going to be a gradual warming trend, which should take us back closer to where we should be for mid-May.  A ridge of high pressure is trying to rebuild across north India, which will allow temperatures to rise moderately from the surface into the upper atmosphere between now and Saturday.  The afternoon mountain instability factor is something we'll have to watch -- and it could generate a good amount of clouds and perhaps an isolated PM shower -- otherwise we can expect a majority of sunshine into at least the first part of the weekend.

There is yet another upper-level disturbance/circulation however, that will edge its way toward northern India by Sunday, and that's going to increase our risk of a few showers and thundershowers.  Right now it looks like the best chance of getting hit with something would be between Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening -- with perhaps an afternoon thundershower on Monday as well.  But this little system appears to be nowhere near as ominous and threatening as the one we're just now recovering from.

All the details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

positive moves... (pm.14.may.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)
High temp: 68.2F (20.1C)
Rainfall: none

There are a lot of clouds hugging the Dhauladhars just before sunset this evening, but it's mostly clear to the west and south.  There was some scattered shower and thundershower development over the mountains north and east of us this afternoon, but we never saw a trace of that here in McLeod, and were able to enjoy a day of mixed sunshine and clouds.  Our temps were considerably warmer today than they've been the last three days, but are still running more than 10F (6C) below normal for the middle of May.

The weather news is generally good for the remainder of this week, and with minor exceptions, into much of next week as well.  In the near term we're going to see our upper-level flow turn more to the west and northwest, with warming occurring from the surface into the highest levels of the atmosphere between now and late Friday.  Apart from potential instability generating an isolated shower over the mountains during the PM hours, rain chances should be low.  Although our temperatures probably won't reach the norm for this time of year (around 82F/28C), it will at least be pleasantly warm as we head into the weekend.

We do have to keep an eye on a weak upper-level circulation which will be moving into central Pakistan by Sunday, bringing us a slightly better chance of a few showers and thundershowers between late Saturday and Monday.  But as I mentioned this morning,  this system isn't looking like it will do very much as it weakens on approach...

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

attempts at recovery... (am.14.may.14)>

The sun is visible through some broken high clouds early this morning, and the humidity is 54%.  There were some scattered thundershowers trying to hold together last night as they moved across Himachal Pradesh, but at least at my location there was nothing more than a trace of additional rainfall to report.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 54.5F (12.5C).

The upper-level circulation that was the engine driving our recent bout of wet and unseasonably cold weather is weakening rapidly, but still spinning around over extreme northern Pakistan.  Its dynamic energy is all but gone, but as it slowly lifts off to the northeast today, there could still be enough lingering instability to trigger a couple of showers or thundershowers somewhere in our vicinity.  Otherwise, improvement in our overall situation is already underway, with the first stages of a warm-up expected today.

Warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere will kick in in earnest by tomorrow, with a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds expected for the remainder of the week.  Of course we nearly always have to keep one eye on potential PM instability and thunder development over the mountains, but that should be our only issue to deal with until perhaps Saturday evening.  By then, a weak (and further weakening) disturbance will glide in from the west, giving us a little better chance of a few showers into Sunday and Monday.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

climbing out of this... (pm.13.may.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2F (10.1C)
High temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
Rainfall since 7:00am: trace
Total rainfall since Sat evening: 2.21" (5.6cm)

There's a lot of cloudiness across the area as sunset approaches this evening, but our recent rains have cleansed the air, allowing great visibility south and westward into the valleys below.  Although the clouds were definitely the majority feature today, we did manage to come up with a few short periods of sunshine as well, and that made it feel much nicer than yesterday.  Still... our temperatures are running a mind-boggling 20F (11C) below normal for this time of year!  Measurable rainfall ended around dawn, and never got started again, though there were a few sprinkles here and there.

The unseasonably muscular upper-level circulation responsible for this recent bout of wet and cool weather remains over extreme northern Pakistan this evening, and has moved very little in the past 24 hours.  However, it has pretty much exhausted its supply of moisture, as colder air working its way down to the surface has brought a bit of stabilization.  There has been some new thundershower development late this afternoon and early this evening to our west and northwest... so that means we're still not totally out of the woods with regard to the risk of more rain before this system is gone for good.

Gradual warming from the surface into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will get started tomorrow, and will last into the weekend.  We could see a couple of random showers or thundershowers somewhere around the area tomorrow, but then we could end up with a more stable situation on Thursday and Friday, as temperatures quickly rebound into the pleasantly warm range.  Yet another (weaker) disturbance will threaten over the weekend, but right now it looks like any shower/thunder action will be relatively minor.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

rain risk remains... (am.13.may.14)>

It's totally cloudy early this morning, but there's no rain falling at the moment, at least not at my location in the upper part of town.  My rain gauge shows an additional 0.74" (1.9cm) since 8:00pm last evening, bringing the total rainfall since Saturday evening up to 2.21" (5.6cm).  The overnight low has been a chilly 50.2F (10.1C), and the humidity reading is 73%.

That total rainfall amount since late Saturday is actually very close to the normal total for the entire month of May, so this latest weather system has indeed delivered on its promises, and then some.  Right now the center of the upper-level circulation is still parked over extreme northwestern Pakistan, with its counter-clockwise flow continuing to funnel moisture into Himachal Pradesh.  It does look like the brunt of this whole system's effect is now behind us, but the likelihood still exists for some occasional shower and thundershower development today.  I think it's also possible that we could see some sunshine at some point as well -- so overall, it may balance out a bit less nasty today than it was yesterday.  Unless we do get a couple of hours of sun, our temperatures will languish in this way cooler than normal range.

Although there could still be a shower or thundershower around the area tomorrow, we should embark upon a trend of improvement through the latter half of the week.  Sunshine will be more plentiful, our air mass will begin warming up again, and rain chances will diminish.  The weekend into early next week doesn't look 100% problem-free, but it doesn't look like we'll see another system like the one we've been recently dealing with.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.