the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

another system organizing... (pm.28.feb.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 44.4F (6.9C)
High temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Precipitation: none

Cloudiness is the rule across the area just past sunset this evening, with some snow showers visible up along the Dhauladhars during the past hour or two.  We have managed to squeeze out occasional periods of sunshine today, but the clouds turned out to the dominant feature, keeping our temperatures on this last day of February well below average/normal.

A very large and deep area of low pressure in the upper-atmosphere continues to spin across Afghanistan into the southern half of Pakistan, channeling an impressive amount of cloudiness into central and northern India.  Deep moisture is being tapped from the Arabian Sea, as strong dynamic energy and a blast of colder air begin to converge over the western Himalayan region.  These are all the classic ingredients for an intense late winter storm system to continue developing just to our west and southwest during the coming 12-24 hours.

Although there could be some scattered rain shower development later tonight into Sunday morning, it still looks like the best chances of significant rain will hold off until tomorrow afternoon (and maybe even the evening) -- lasting all the way through Monday, Monday night, and at least early Tuesday.  Along with that rain will come the risk of thunderstorms with small hail, very gusty winds, and perhaps some sleet at times.  Temperatures are going to drop yet again, and remain well below early March norms.

Some improvement is expected by Tuesday night, with a break in the action continuing into about mid-day Thursday.  Thereafter, we've got more wet and stormy weather scheduled as next weekend approaches.  It's going to be a longer wait before a decisive arrival of springtime can be considered!!

Check tabs above for forecast details and other info...

february's final hours... (am.28.feb.15)>

It's looking partly to mostly cloudy out there at dawn on this Saturday morning.  I'm recording a low temp of 44.4F (6.9C), and there has been no rainfall overnight.

Current satellite pics are showing quite a lot of high cloudiness streaming in from the southwest -- the advance messenger of the next storm system on the agenda.  It still seems that we'll be doing alright today, with probably more clouds than we had yesterday, but only a small chance of a couple of isolated showers popping up somewhere around the area.  Temperatures won't be too cold, but still several degrees below normal for the final day of February.

By tomorrow, a very intense upper-level storm system will be cranking up in the vicinity of Afghanistan and southern Pakistan.  It will begin to tap into abundant moisture from the Arabian Sea, pulling it northward toward the western Himalayas.  This morning's data suggests that we may not get much rain going until the latter half of the day, with the best potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain between Sunday night and early Tuesday morning.  There will also be some thunder involved, with another bout of strong and gusty winds as well.

Temperatures will plunge again... keeping us way colder than normal for the first two or three days of March.  This winter the snow line has remained well above us most of the time, but as always, once precipitation sets in and temperatures drop, we'll have to keep a close eye on it.

We'll hope for a period of mid-week clearing before rain chances enter the picture again late Thursday into next weekend.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details.

Friday, February 27, 2015

an 'in between' phase... (pm.27.feb.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.3F (5.7C)

High temp: 53.0F (11.7C)
Precipitation: none

We have a partly cloudy sky this evening, and that's been pretty much the story across our area for the entire day.  There was a good amount of sunshine in the midst of occasional clouds, and there was never any more shower or thundershower development.  Although temperatures warmed up a few degrees, it remains much cooler than normal for the very end of February.

I've had a lot of trouble with my internet connection the last two evenings, and that has prevented me from being able to access the majority of the data I normally check.  It's driving me crazy, honestly.  But from what I can see, we should have another relatively quiet day before things turn wet again.  A developing storm system to our west will bring us increasing rain chances during the day on Sunday, with moderate to heavy rain appearing likely once again between Sunday night and late Monday night.  Beyond that, it looks like our recent unstable pattern is going to remain with us for most of next week.

Temperatures will stay well below normal as March arrives, and there seems to be little chance of any kind of appreciable warm-up all the way through the first week of the new month.

Hopefully I can provide a more comprehensive update tomorrow... assuming these internet deficiencies are resolved.

late winter blues... (am.27.feb.15)>

It is partly cloudy early this morning, and the temperature is very near the overnight low of 42.3F (5.7C).  Yesterday's high was only 46.9F (8.3C), and it's been obvious that we've been languishing in the same unseasonably cold range for the past 36 hours or so.  I've recorded no rainfall overnight, and there has been just 0.06" (2mm) in the past 24 hours, despite numerous brief periods of light rain showers and even some sleet and small hail on occasion througout the day on Thursday.  The total precipitation from our recent storm system added up to 1.49" (3.8cm) here at my location in the upper part of McLeod.

The general weather mood is going to remain in an indecisive phase for the next couple of days, as we sit in a 'middle ground' of sorts.  The upper-level flow is unstable, with very cold air aloft, and some weak ripples of energy passing through.  That should prevent us from totally clearing out, and also keep the mentionable risk of a couple of isolated/random showers or thundershowers in the forecast -- both today and Saturday.  Temperatures will be hard-pressed to rebound very much, even if we do end up getting blessed with a few hours of sunshine.

Yet another strong late winter storm system is already starting to get organized over eastern Iran, and will bring us our next extended period of wet and stormy weather beginning on Sunday (just in time for the arrival of March).  Rain and thunderstorms will become more likely by Sunday afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rain expected to occur on Monday, perhaps lingering into very early Tuesday.  Temperatures may be even a few degrees colder with this system than they've been just recently.  Not a very spring-ish early March forecast, I'm sorry to say...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info available above.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

not much good news... (am.26.feb.15)>

The clouds are trying to break up a little bit here at sunrise on this Thursday morning, but there are still some mainly light showers occurring randomly.  My rain gauge shows an additional 0.35" (9mm) of rain and melted sleet/hail overnight, which brings that grand total since late Tuesday night up to 1.43" (3.6cm).  I'm recording a low temp of 41.4F (5.2C) here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.

It looks like the worst of this recent spell of stormy weather is behind us... but we're going to have to deal with the lingering effects of some leftover energy aloft, along with an expansive pool of very cold air in the upper atmosphere which will keep everything on the unstable side today.  There is still the potential for some scattered shower or thundershower development throughout the day -- though we'll probably be able to come up with some sunshine here and there as well.

Even on Friday and Saturday we can't rule out a couple of isolated or widely scattered showers or thundershowers, mainly during the afternoon hours -- as temperatures remain several degrees cooler than normal for the very tail end of February.

And what about March?  Unfortunately, yet another very strong upper-level storm system will deepen and swing across northwest India between Saturday night and Tuesday of next week.  This one is looking even more fierce than the one we're just getting rid of, with more moisture available, and even colder air expected to be drawn into the system.

Get the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

very turbulent... (pm.25.feb.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.5F (7.5C)
High temp: 53.9F (12.2C)
Precipitation: 1.08" (2.7cm)
*stats updated @ 8:05pm

Our sky this evening looks really ominous and eerie, with lots of fast-moving low clouds zipping from southeast to northwest, as thundershowers roam the area.  Although it was cloudy all day, we had several hours between late morning and mid-afternoon when there was virtually no rain.  There were some vicious wind gusts which reappeared again during the late afternoon, along with quite a lot of thunder and lightning accompanied by moderate to heavy rain showers and even some small hail mixed in during the late afternoon and evening.

A very intense upper-level circulation is spinning over northern Pakistan this evening -- the main dynamic center of a very large low pressure trough which dominates the weather pattern from the Caspian Sea to northern India.  Upper-level energy and advancing colder air has been combining with a moderate amount of moisture in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere to produce extensive cloudiness, high wind gusts, and scattered rain and thundershowers in our neighborhood during the past 18 hours or so.  Up til now, rainfall amounts have been less than what has been projected by computer models, but there could still be plenty more development overnight into tomorrow (Thu) morning, so we can't say that this is over yet.

Heavy snow has remained way above us -- mainly along the Dhauladhar range itself -- but as colder air moves in tonight, we're still going to have to watch that snow line to see if it might shift further downhill.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and the risk of scattered showers will be with us as the weekend approaches, with the likelihood of another significant storm system moving in on Saturday night or Sunday morning, lasting through Monday.  This is not at all a pleasant weather pattern to look forward to during the coming week or so...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast details.

a dramatic shift... (am.25.feb.15)>

There has been plenty of action overnight, with occasional showers and thundershowers, accompanied by very strong wind gusts at times.  My rain gauge shows 0.35" (9mm), but that amount is a bit suspect, since the high winds dislodged the gauge and it was hanging and blowing in the breeze when I checked it at about 6:45am!  I'm recording a low temp of 47.7F (8.7C), though the temperature has been fluctuating wildly all night long.  This morning at sunrise moderate rain is in progress.

The very center of circulation of our intense late-winter storm is located right along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, southeast of Kabul.  This system has some incredible dynamic energy associated with it, along with a pool of much colder air aloft, and a good amount of moisture being drawn northward against the mountains ahead of it.  We will remain in a favorable position to receive waves of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day and even during most of the night.  There could be some breaks in between periods of rain -- but I think we're in for some fairly heavy totals by early tomorrow morning -- perhaps an additional 4-5cm (1.6-2.0") or so.  It's also likely that we'll see more strong and gusty winds, as some of the energy of this system gets translated down to the surface layers of the atmosphere.

The mystery of the rain/snow line remains... colder and colder air will be moving in during the coming 12-24 hours or so, and that could at least give us the potential for some small hail and sleet.  Heavy snow is already occurring up-mountain, and we'll just have to see how far down that snow line might creep tonight into Thursday morning.

Somewhat of a break in the action is expected on Friday and Saturday, but yet another very strong (and wet) system is expected to move in on Sunday into Monday.  Temperatures will be well below normal as we greet the new month of March.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

storm on the horizon... (pm.24.feb.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.3F (12.4C) -- updated @ 8:20pm
High temp: 65.6F (18.7C)
Precipitation: none

Clouds have really thickened up and the visibility has dropped during the past couple of hours.  Although there was extensive high cloudiness for much of the day, we did get a good amount of dim sun shining through, and that made for one last unseasonably warm day -- before the bottom falls out again.  Today's high temp was nearly as warm as yesterday's.  We've not yet had any raindrops as of 6:30pm... but that will probably change shortly.

Computer models have remained remarkably consistent the last several days in tracking the evolution of the very strong late winter storm system which is now moving into north India.  The upper-level circulation itself is located over Afghanistan, but the general trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is quite extensive -- stretching from Iran to Pakistan.  Moisture is being drawn northward just to the east of the main circulation, as unseasonably cold central Asian air filters in from the northwest.  All of this is setting us up for a period of wet, colder, stormy and potentially windy weather between tonight and early Thursday.  Temperatures will be on their way down as well.

Precipitation amounts are projected to be between 4 and 7cm (1.5-2.8") during the next 36-48 hours... and that translates into a couple of feet of snow in areas up-mountain from us.  As colder air arrives, we could see that snow line progress downward and perilously close to us.  It's all going to be quite a change from the springtime preview we've enjoyed the last few days.

Unstable, unseasonably cool, and potentially showery weather will continue into the weekend, with more substantial rain possible again on Sunday into Monday.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details...

spring preview ending... (am.24.feb.15)>

A fairly uniform shield of high clouds covers the sky just before sunrise this morning... but temperatures remain unseasonably mild.  My low temperature here in the upper part of town has been 58.5F (14.7C) -- more typical of late March!  There has been no rainfall overnight.

A massive shield of high clouds extends from the northern Arabian Sea northward into Kashmir this morning, while an upper-level circulation spins over the middle of Afghanistan.  This is our next weather system -- and one that is going to bring some very daramatic changes over the course of the coming 24-36 hours or so.  There has been consistency for several days that our rain chances will begin to increase towards this evening, with occasional rain, thunderstorms and perhaps some strong and gusty winds becoming likely overnight and throughout the day on Wednesday.  This system is pulling in a moderate amount of moisture, but what is more impressive is the upper-level dynamic energy and much colder air it's going to drag across northern India by Thursday.

Right now it looks like the snow line is going to drop much further down the mountain than we've seen since the system back during the first few days of this month.  We can't rule out some sleet/snow even flirting with McLeod Ganj tomorrow night into Thursday.

Precipitation should become more scattered by late Thursday, but there is still the potential for some showers off and on through Friday and Saturday, before more significant rain chances increase again on Sunday.  We'll have to get used to some colder temperatures again... after the last several days of unseasonable warmth.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Monday, February 23, 2015

things will change... (pm.23.feb.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
Precipitation: none

We have a broken layer of high cloudiness blanketing the area just after sunset this evening.  Those clouds did pose a greater challenge to the sun today than we've seen the last couple of days, but it didn't really matter -- today's high temperature was the warmest of 2015.  It felt more like the middle of March, as far as normal/averages are concerned.

Although there is still a strong ridge of high pressure across much of India, a very intense late winter storm system centered over eastern Iran is generating lots of high cloudiness out ahead of it.  This system will be shifting gradually eastward during the coming two to three days, putting an end to our recent string of unseasonably mild days.  Most of tomorrow (Tue) is still looking OK, but rain chances will be on the increase by evening, with the likelihood of some moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms appearing before Wednesday morning comes.  Unless something miraculous happens, Wednesday is going to be a very wet and stormy day, with that potential for rain, gusty winds and thunder lingering into Thursday as well.

It's also going to be turning much colder, allowing the snow line to drop further downhill than we've seen since the very beginning of February.  Sleet and snow is not out of the question in McLeod Ganj proper during late Feb -- and we can't rule out that possibility with this system.

Further down the road... things are looking unstable and cooler than normal through the weekend, with rain chances increasing again by Sunday night.  

way warmer than normal... (am.23.feb.15)>

It's mostly clear early this Monday morning, with spring-like warmth.  My overnight low has been 57.2F (14.0C), which is much more typical for late March than late February.  There has been no rainfall since last report.

This unseasonably mild air mass is going to hang around for another couple of days, but we will have to contend with some waves of mainly high cloudiness developing to our west-southwest and sweeping across northern India.  The cloud development is in advance of a very intense late winter storm system which is now tracking across southern Iran -- heading toward northern Pakistan by Wednesday night.  Computer models have been very consistent the last couple of days with the movement/effects of this system -- bringing the first rain chances into our area Tuesday evening.  It still looks like we are in for some moderate to heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong/gusty winds from late Tuesday night into perhaps early Thursday.  Temperatures will plunge as well -- proabably back to levels that are well below normal for this time of year.

In the meantime, enjoy this temporary flirtation with springtime -- but don't get too attached to it!  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK at the top of the page for details.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

temporarily gorgeous... (pm.22.feb.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 64.5F (18.1C)
Precipitation: none

We're finishing off the second day in a row of a dramatic warm-up -- my high temperature in the upper part of town was the warmest of 2015 so far, and from what I can tell (based on temp records from Dharamsala), the warmest since the early part of November.  Once again we were able to enjoy plentiful sunshine, with only a few patches of mainly high clouds drifting through.  

There is more subtantial high cloudiness showing up to our west and south on this evening's satellite pics, so it's looking like we may not have the kind of sunshine tomorrow that we've seen over the weekend.  The air mass in place across northwest India is an unseasonably mild one though... so even with some cloud issues, our temps should remain well above normal for this time of year.

The high pressure ridge responsible for our recent fantastic weather will be breaking down during the next couple of days, making way for a very intense storm system to bring drastic changes.  Right now there is an intense upper-level circulation moving into western Iran which will be pushing into the western Himalayas by late Tuesday.  As of now, the data indicates that this system will have all the necessary ingredients to produce a lot of nasty weather for us -- beginning Tuesday night and lasting through at least early Thursday.  It will turn much colder, with moderate to heavy rain and heavy mountain snowfall likely.

Don't be fooled by the nice weather of the past couple of days... it's only temporary.!!

spring tease... (am.22.feb.15)>

There are a few patches of high clouds around, otherwise we're waking up to what looks like will be a gorgeous Sunday morning.  Our temperatures early this morning are already very mild for the season -- I'm recording an overnight low of just 52.0F (11.1C) -- and there has been no rainfall since last report.

The giant ridge of high pressure building across western into northern India seems to be doing its job well so far.  The warmest air mass of this waning winter season is already surging northward into Himachal, and it's looking more and more likely that we'll be experiencing a true early taste of spring during the next couple of days, as temperatures push well into the comfort zone -- perhaps above 65F (18C) for the first time this year.  There is always a concern about mainly afternoon cloud development here along the mountain slopes, but if the sun can hold on into at least the early afternoon, then we'll make it.

The next big weather concern centers on a very strong upper-level low pressure circulation which is now in Iraq.  It is already an unusually intense system for this time of year, and will be moving in our direction -- pushing into northern India by Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Our very comfortable temperatures will be dramatically replaced by a much cooler air mass, as widespread rain and thunderstorms develop.  Right now it's looking pretty nasty on Wednesday and Thursday.  

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for details.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

major warming... (pm.21.feb.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
Precipitation: none

As darkness settles in on this evening of the third day of Losar, we have scattered high cloudiness -- very similar to what was going on at sunrise today.  In between, there's been plenty of sunshine to go around, with the scattered cloudiness never really turning into that much of a bother.  My high temperature in the upper part of town was a full 10F (5.5C) warmer than yesterday's!

The dramatic warming of the air mass which occurred today is just the beginning.  We should see milder air continue to surge northward into Himachal Pradesh tomorrow (Sun) into Monday, thanks to a muscular ridge of high pressure which continues to build across the northwestern one-third of India.  The question remains as to how much mainly mid- and high cloud development might occur -- if we can get at least a majority of sunshine both tomorrow and Monday, then we should be enjoying the warmest temperatures of the year -- by far.  As always, you can check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details.

There is still a very strong storm system being projected by all the computer models for the middle of next week.  It looks like we could have some rain shower development by late Tuesday, with periods of moderate to heavy rain appearing likely on Wednesday into at least mid-day Thursday.  It's also going to turn considerably colder.  No, we are not busting into springtime just yet...

finally an upward turn... (am.21.feb.15)>

There's a good amount of scattered high cloudiness out there early this morning, but it looks like the sun will be visible as it peeks over the mountains in a matter of minutes.  The night has been a quiet one, with no additional rainfall that I am aware of.  Temperatures barely dipped at all overnight -- I'm recording a low of 46.6F (9.3C).

It is certainly nice to finally see some improvement in our weather conditions, at the end of a week in which we had five days in a row of measurable precipitation which totalled 3.08" (7.8cm) here at my location in the upper part of town.  Most of that amount occurred between about noon on Wednesday and 4:00pm on Friday.  Yes, it was a very soggy first couple of days of Losar.

Now we'll enjoy the benefits of a building ridge of high pressure aloft, which is going to set off a significant warming trend from west-central into northern India during the coming 48 to 72 hours.  Unfortunately, there is the potential for some periods of mainly high cloudiness to keep us from getting the full warming effect of the late winter sun, but the air mass itself is going to be warming considerably, so even if we have to deal with some clouds during the coming three days, I think we'll feel the difference.  It's probable that temperatures on both Sunday and Monday will be the warmest of 2015 so far.

Storminess will enter the picture again by late Tuesday, however, with yet another extended period of rain and mountain snow, along with a drop in temperatures over the course of the latter half of next week.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for specifics.

Friday, February 20, 2015

trying to dry out... (pm.20.feb.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.1F (5.6C)
High temp: 48.5F (9.2C)
Rainfall: 1.38" (3.5cm) -- since midnight

Some clearing has tried to appear in the western sky since about 4:30pm, but we still have to call it mostly cloudy this evening.  You can see from the stats above that there has been plenty of rain today (since midnight) -- a slight majority of it occurring after roughly 7:30am.  Although we had a few brief periods without raindrops, it has definitely been a wet second day of Losar!

I think there is still a risk of redevelopment of some random showers or thundershowers during the next six hours or so, otherwise we're finally starting to see a stabilizing atmosphere for the first time this week.  There has been measurable rainfall every 24 hour period since Monday -- adding up to just over 3" (7.6cm+) as of this afternoon.  A rather high amplitude ridge of high pressure will start to build across northwest India tomorrow, however, and that's going to provide us with much nicer weather for about three days or so.  I think we're still going to have to face some sun vs. cloud battles, but a dramatically warming air mass should deliver the mildest temps of 2015 on both Sunday and Monday.

A very impressive-looking storm system is being projected by the computer models to move into the western Himalayan region on Tuesday, which will once again increase our risk of rain and mountain snow between late Tuesday and Thursday.  In fact, the extended range pattern -- all the way into the first several days of March -- is looking quite unstable.

Check tabs above for forecast details and other info...

not much better... (am.20.feb.15)>

Things are looking no better early this second morning of Losar than they did yesterday.  It's cloudy and showery, with occasionally gusty winds as well.  The rain gauge shows an additional 0.64" (1.6cm) since about 10 o'clock last night, and that brings the total rainfall since mid-day Wednesday up to 1.68" (4.3cm).  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 42.1F (5.6C).

The way satellite pics are looking this morning, I'm not sure if we're going to taste all that much improvement before the day is over.  There's still plenty of moisture at the beck and call of this upper-level dynamic energy which continues to ripple across northern India -- and it's going to take at least another 12 hours before the right combination of ingredients  falls apart.  That means we need to be braced for more of this occasional shower and thundershower action into the evening hours, though one computer model is showing rain chances diminishing considerably by the early to mid-afternoon.

A rapidly building ridge of high pressure aloft is going to take over the weather pattern starting tomorrow... providing us with at least three days of drier and much warmer conditions.  It's questionable as to whether or not we're going to get rid of at least some patchy/occasional cloudiness during the Saturday to Monday period, but if the sun can dominate at all, we'll see the warmest temperatures of the year.

The next storm system will be nudging its way in by Tuesday, with a good chance of a significant round of rain, thunder, and mountain snow between Tuesday evening and Thursday.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

still in the thick of it... (pm.19.feb.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 42.4F (5.8C)
High temp: 48.3F (9.1C)
Precipitation: 0.71" (1.8cm) -- updated @ 10:00pm

The first day of the Tibetan New Year is ending much like it began -- wet.  Light rain is in progress, with occasionally gusty winds as well.  Our rainfall total hasn't been at all excessive today, but we've had more wet hours than dry ones, with numerous periods of light to moderate rain showers, along with some thunder at times.  Clouds have been thick and ever-present, while temperatures have been the chilliest in more than two weeks.

We find ourselves right on a battle line between air masses today, and underneath a fast-moving jet stream that is carrying a parade of upper-level disturbances across the western Himalayan region.  Add to that a tongue of moisture being pushed up against the mountains, and you have a recipe for plenty of precipitation to be deposited across widespread areas of north India.  It looks like it may take another 18-24 hours for the atmosphere to settle down enough for this rain/thunder development to completely stop. That means we can't expect a whole lot of improvement until maybe afternoon on Friday -- but even then I think there could still be some scattered showers attempting to pop up.

By Saturday, though, we'll come under the influence of a building ridge of high pressure aloft, which should bring us a few days of drier and much warmer weather.  I'm stunned at the kind of temperatures the computer models are dangling in front of us by Sunday and Monday, but we'll see whether or not we have cloudiness here along the front slopes of the mountains to spoil it.  Further out -- a strong storm system is waiting in the wings, to affect us between late Tuesday and late Thursday of next week.

Forecast specs are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

LOSAR's wet start... (am.19.feb.15)>


Although it was dry for most of the night, some light rain showers redeveloped around 6:00am, and currently at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center there are some light sprinkles of rain... along with some rumbles of thunder. (*Rain has become heavier just as I posted this).  My rain gauge is showing 0.06" (2mm) since the last report at 8:00pm, and I'm recording a low temperature of 43.3F (6.3C) which has just occurred in the last hour or so.

The most potent in the series of disturbances that we've been dealing with since very early Monday morning is now moving across northern Pakistan into north India.  This one has more dynamic energy and moisture available to it than the previous two or three disturbances this week -- and unfortunately for the timing, will provide us with periods of rain and thunder through tomorrow (Fri) afternoon or evening.  As I've said before, I don't expect it to rain continuously -- hopefully there will be some breaks here and there -- but computer models are in fairly good agreement that we could see 1.0-1.5" (2.5-3.8cm) of rain, in addition to the inch+ that's already added up since before dawn on Monday.  There could be some small hail during a thundershower, but authentic snowfall should remain well above us.

Vast improvements are expected by Friday night, which should last through the weekend. A major warm-up will get underway, as a big ridge of high pressure builds in for a few days.  But then things go downhill again -- a strong storm system is being advertised by the models for the mid-week period.

Get specifics on tabs at the top of the page...

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

potentially soggy Losar... (pm.18.feb.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.6F (5.9C)
High temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Precipitation: 0.33" (8mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

We're totally socked in with clouds just after sunset on this Losar's Eve... and light rain is falling as of just a few minutes before I started writing.  Early this morning it looked as if we might get away with an OK day, but clouds quickly thickened up well before noon, and a couple of brief, light showers started developing during the noon hour.  There was even a very brief period of hail around 12:45pm.  More substantial thundershower action got going shortly before 3:00pm, and we've had off-and-on showers ever since.  A rather chilly low temperature for the day (see stats above) actually occurred in the midst of those mid-afternoon thundershowers.

There has been a lot of inconsistency in the way the computer models have been trying to resolve this series of disturbances tracking across northern India this week, but there's now pretty good agreement about the coming 48 hours or so.  And it doesn't look very good for the first day of the Tibetan New Year.  Although I'll be surprised if it rains all day, it still looks likely that we'll see some substantial periods of rain -- most likely between mid-day tomorrow and mid-day on Friday.  In the meantime, we may get a bit of a break later tonight into early tomorrow morning before that next batch of upper-level energy moves in.

On the other side of the equation, confidence is building that we'll have a nice period of dry weather over the weekend, lasting perhaps all the way through Monday.  That dry weather will be accompanied by a very dramatic warm-up, in advance of a potentially intense late winter storm between Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

Get forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page...

threats remain... (am.18.feb.15)>

We have a partly cloudy sky at sunrise this morning, and I'm recording an overnight low temperature of 48.0F (8.9C).  There has been no rainfall since last evening's report, and none in the past 24 hours or so.

Rain shower development since about this time yesterday morning has remained well to our north and northwest, but the latest in this very long series of upper-level disturbances is starting to move across HImachal Pradesh now.  We'll see if the right combination of upper-level dynamics and low-level moisture can stir up some showers today.  It still looks like a period of heavier precipiation may be on the way (unfortunately) tomorrow, the first day of Tibetan Losar, into mid-day Friday.  Earlier it had looked like rain would be most likely during the afternoon hours tomorrow, but the latest models are showing some development during the morning.  Of course the models are usually quite lousy at nailing down the exact timing of these individual ripples/disturbances moving through, but we need to be prepared for a potentially wet scenario as Losar arrives.

There is good news... and that's due to indications that we may have an extended break before the next system moves in.  It looks like a very potent one, but it may hold off until perhaps Monday night or Tuesday, leaving us with a dry and warmer stretch over the weekend and into Monday.  The bad news is that wet and stormy conditions could linger throughout the majority of next week.  Still a very active pattern!

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

atmosphere in flux... (pm.17.feb.15)>

Tuesday's stats: 

Low temp: 44.2F (6.8C)
High temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
Precipitation: 0.49" (1.2cm)

We have hazy skies just past sunset this evening, and it's partly to mostly cloudy.  The sun exerted itself more than was expected today, though we did have a lot of cloudiness and haze hanging around as well.  The day's total precipitation occurred before 7:00am, and there was never any redevelopment thereafter.

This is how it's going to be during the coming 7-8 days or so -- battles between clouds and sun in between periods of rain and possible thundershowers.  We've found ourselves in a lull today, but it looks like the next bit of "spin" in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will move across our moisture-laden air mass very late tonight and Wednesday, so there's a good chance that the next round of wet weather isn't too far away.  The next disturbance is being projected by computer models to arrive by mid-day Thursday (first day of Losar), lasting into mid-day Friday, and that will increase the risk of rain once again.  Then it's starting to seem as if we may have a reprieve that will last for the majority of the weekend, before another and even stronger system sweeps across the area between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

Significant warming of the atmosphere to our south combined with an upper-level pattern that still looks like the middle of winter is responsible for this extended period of unsettled and unstable weather -- something quite common during the month of February, actually.  Check out the LATE WINTER TO SPRING tab at the top of the page if you haven't already.

busy weather pattern... (am.17.feb.15)>

Our sky is cloudy early this morning, and there are still a few showers around the area.  We had a respectable amount of rain overnight -- I'm showing 0.49" (1.2cm) since 8:00pm last evening, which brings our total since very early yesterday morning up to 0.66" (1.7cm).  Temperatures are cooler than we've seen in the last several days, but really not all that cold for the middle of February -- my overnight low has been 44.2F (6.8C).

If you regularly follow along on this blog, you've certainly picked up the theme recently -- we've got a long-term unstable/disturbed weather pattern to deal with, and that's going to keep us in and out of periods of rain showers for at least the next week or so.  There are numerous upper-level disturbances embedded in a fast moving flow aloft, while plenty of moisture is available in the mid- and lower levels for those disturbances to tap.  Already we've seen a few rounds of rain showers since very early Monday morning, and there will be more to come.  The challenge remains in nailing down the timing on each individual disturbance as it tracks across northern India -- but I've been getting headaches trying to do that.  Computer models are all coming up with different solutions, so it's not realistic to be able to fine tune this kind of scenario.

Broadly speaking, it still looks like late tonight through Wednesday evening, and then Thursday (Losar) late afternoon through Friday might be the times when we could pick up the heaviest rainfall -- with another even more ominous-looking period coming between Sunday night and Tuesday of next week.  More than enough action to keep us weather enthusiasts busy...

Forecast details and other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Monday, February 16, 2015

an inclement outlook... (pm.16.feb.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
High temp: 56.3F (13.5C)
Precipitation: 0.17" (4mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

It's a fairly miserable evening out there, to be frank.  We have thick clouds overhead and light rain is falling at the moment.  Up until about 5:30pm we only had some random sprinkles of rain since this morning's report, but rain showers have been a little bit more substantial since then.  There were a few dim peeks of sunshine today, otherwise the clouds were firmly in control.

The change in the weather pattern we've been talking about and anticipating for many days has arrived right on schedule today.  The first in a very long series of upper-level disturbances has been pushing into north India since this morning, stirring up these random mainly light rain showers as the dynamic energy aloft interacts with increasing moisture in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere.  This really is looking like a long-term period of disturbed weather, with significant upper-level circulations expected to ripple through the western Himalayan region all the way into early next week.  It's maddening to try and work out the timing on the individual disturbances, because each computer model has its own solution -- but the bottom line is that we're going to have periods of rain showers and possible thunder on and off and on and off for the next seven or eight days.

If I really had to nail it down, I'd say that our heaviest rainfall might occur between tomorrow (Tues) night and late Wednesday night, and again between Thursday evening and Friday evening.  But that call is definitely not set in stone.

Temperatures will be much cooler during spells of rain and thick clouds, but will still be rather mild for the season if we can get some dry periods with peeks of sun here and there.  As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) has the details.

first rain in 11 days... (am.16.feb.15)>

It is mostly cloudy early this morning, and a period of about two hours of light rain showers has recently come to an end -- I've got 0.10" (3mm) in the rain gauge to show for it.  The low temp here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has been 46.9F (8.3C), but currently it's back up to about 49F (9.4C).

Our eleven days in a row without any precipitation has indeed come to an end, and we're now on the brink of what looks to be an extended period of unsettled/unstable weather which is going to last all week -- and perhaps into at least the early part of next week as well.  It's not going to rain continuously, of course, but upper-air charts are showing and projecting a long series of upper-level disturbances moving across northern India.  There's a considerable amount of moisture lurking just to our south and west, so each of these disturbances should be able to make use of that... providing us with several periods of wet weather during the coming week to ten days.

I think we'll also manage to squeeze out a few periods of at least partly sunny skies in the midst of this wetter stretch, but there probably won't be too many hours between spells of thicker cloudiness and rain showers.  Some thunder will be possible as well.  At the moment it looks like the snow line will remain well up-mountain from us -- but it IS still February, so we can't be too certain of that.

Get the forecast details and other info on tabs above...

Sunday, February 15, 2015

a return to action... (pm.15.feb.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.7F (9.3C)
High temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
Precipitation: none

It's extremely hazy across the area this evening, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies.  We were able to enjoy more of our recent glorious mid-February sunshine until the early afternoon, but then there was a fairly impressive increase in cloudiness which stunted our warm-up a bit.  Still... at my location in the upper part of McLeod, I recorded the second-warmest temp of 2015; yesterday being the warmest.

We've now had 11 days in a row of dry weather... along with temperatures which have been gradually moderating to levels that are a degree or two above normal for this time of year.  It's been a nice and quiet and generally pleasant stretch of weather -- but it's just about to come to an end.

The upper-level weather pattern is now aligning itself to produce a long-term period of more active weather for us here in Himalayan north India -- which could last more than a week.  There will be a series of at least three significant disturbances tracking though between tomorrow (Mon) and next Sunday, and that's going to increase our rain chances rather dramatically.  There could be some light showers developing toward tomorrow morning, but right now it seems that the best rain potential may hold off until late Tuesday through Wednesday, and then again between Thursday afternoon and early Saturday.  There's still a perplexing amount of variability between the computer model solutions, though -- an indication that there are a lot of question marks remaining as to what each of those individual disturbances is going to do.

My best interpretation of events can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page...

pleasant streak continues... (am.15.feb.15)>

We've got a few patches of thin cirrus clouds out there at sunrise this morning, otherwise it's looking nice.  My overnight low temp has been 48.7F (9.3C) -- which is the mildest I've recorded (by a hair) this year -- and there has been no precipitation.

We find ourselves in the midst of the most comfortable weather of 2015 thus far, thanks to a big ridge of high pressure anchored off to our southwest which has allowed a very mild air mass to nudge northward into Himachal Pradesh.  Apart from the threat of occasional cloudiness, today is looking good -- and if the sunshine can dominate into at least the mid-afternoon, we'll be flirting with the magical 60F (16C) mark once again.

A pattern shift will be underway by tomorrow, however, which will flatten that high pressure ridge and make way for a series of upper-level disturbances to track across northern India over the course of the comng week.  Shower chances will enter the picture as early as tomorrow (Mon) morning, with the risk of periods of rain and possibly some thunder off-and-on all the way through next Saturday.  According to the latest data, Tuesday night through Wednesday, and late Thursday through early Saturday seem to be the most likely times for significant precipitation in our area.  Temperatures will cool down in response to rain development, but at this point it doesn't look cold enough for snow in McLeod.  There will definitely be plenty of new snowfall in the mountins above town by the time next weekend arrives.

Details can be found on tabs above...

Saturday, February 14, 2015

mildest of the year... (pm.14.feb.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Precipitation: none

You can see from the high temp (above) that the thermometer got about as close to 60F as it possibly could today -- even at my location in the very upper part of McLeod Ganj.  It was already very mild at sunrise, and with pretty much unlimited sunshine all day, our anticipated warmer air mass was able to deliver beautifully.  This evening just after sunset it is mostly clear... though a bit hazy.

It's been a big relief to see the cloud development held at bay the last couple of days, allowing us to reap the full potential of the spring-like air mass pushing in from the south-southwest.  This period of above-normal temperatures will continue tomorrow -- and it seems likely that we'll warm up even another degree or two.  There could be an increase in cloudiness by the latter part of the day, but the bigger changes will hold off a little while longer.

There's still a shift in the upper-level pattern expected as the new week unfolds, as the flow shifts back to the west-southwest, and several disturbances swing through northern India.  There will also be an increase in available moisture as the week goes on, which will bring us a good chance of at least a few rounds of showers and possible thundershowers between Monday and Saturday.  I'm kinda frustrated with the continuing fluctuations among the computer model solutions -- many of which keep the most significant precipitation just to our north and northwest.  It's still hard for me to get a feel for what this system is going to look like.  In general, we just need to be prepared for a turn to much more unsettled/unstable conditions as we approach the Tibetan New Year...

Check tabs above for forecast and other info.

Friday, February 13, 2015

a mild weekend... (pm.13.feb.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 44.4F (6.9C)
High temp: 56.8F (13.8C)
Precipitation: none

It's hazy out there this evening, with only a few clouds hanging around.  The afternoon cloud development today was much less pronounced than it was yesterday, following a stunning sunny morning.  We're slowly but surely edging more into a comfort zone with regard to temperatures, which haven risen a bit above normal for mid-Feb during the last couple of days.

There's still a concern about random periods of cloudiness as we head into the weekend, but our air mass should continue to warm up... all the way through Sunday... giving us a run at those 60F+ (16C) temps we've been looking forward to all week.  There's barely any risk at all of rain until late Sunday night at the earliest.

I'm surprised that the vast array of computer models are still not centering on a solution for the evolving series of storm systems on the way next week.  There's still a remarkable amount of disagreement, which indicates that the pattern shaping up during the coming 7-10 days is a very unsettled one.  At this point, all we can say for sure is that the chance of some rain shower action will increase on Monday, and then continue off and on all the way through Losar and even into early the following week.  It won't rain continuously during that time, but we're going to have to wait longer until the model guidance gives us a better idea of specifics...

sun/cloud mysteries... (am.13.feb.15)>

We have perfectly clear skies at sunrise on this Friday morning... the lingering clouds and fog last evening dissipated very quickly right after sunset.  I'm recording an overnight low of 44.4F (6.9C), and there has been no precipitation.

A milder air mass surging northward into Himachal Pradesh will bring us the warmest temperatures of 2015 during the next three days -- though it's still not really accurate to say that 60F (16C) is warm.!  But it will be a bit above normal for the middle of February, and a preview of the spring season which is still actually a few weeks away.  Yesterday afternoon it was evident that we've got cloud development issues to deal with here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, as this milder air mass tries to arrive.  We'll start the day with lots of sunshine, but we may be dealing with some clouds/patchy fog again by later in the day.  Still, we should be storm-free until perhaps late Sunday night into Monday.

By that time, a very complex and extensive area of disturbed weather will be forming to our west.  The models are all over the place with regard to just how this system is going to come together and impact northern India -- but be prepared for an increasing chance of rain showers during the early part of next week.  Some data is now targetting late Tuesday through Thursday for the best potential for significant rainfall... but we could have a different picture each and every time the model data comes out, until the evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes set.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.

Thursday, February 12, 2015

seasonal transformations... (pm.12.feb.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8F (6.0C)
High temp: 54.6F (12.6C)
Precipitation: none

There's a lot of cloudiness, fog and haze settled here along the front slopes of the mountains this evening.  Although we had plenty of nice sunshine and blue skies until the early afternoon, the haze and clouds increased dramatically after about 3:00pm, and have continued to thicken up ever since.  Before those clouds settled in, I recorded the second warmest high temp since my return to McLeod on the 17th of January.

I'm bothered by this cloud development this afternoon, because it indicates that the warmer air mass brewing to our southwest is having trouble shifting into the higher elevations without whatever moisture it holds condensing out.  In plan language, that means that much of the energy of our long-anticipated warming trend may end up getting translated into cloud development here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  I hope I am wrong... but we'll see what happens during the next three days as that much milder air mass pushes in.  If we can maintain a good amount of sunshine for the first two-thirds of the daylight hours, then it's still likely we'll see temps rising above 60F (16C) for the first time this year.

Despite the threat of clouds, there isn't much of a chance of any precipitation until maybe very late Sunday night or Monday.  That's when our next pattern shift will begin to occur, leading to unsettled conditions and off-and-on wet weather throughout much of next week.  At the moment, it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will hold the best chances of significant rainfall, but there's still an amazing amount of inconsistency and disagreement among the various computer models.  

Check the forecast details and other info on tabs above...

increasingly comfortable... (am.12.feb.15)>

We have generally clear skies this morning at dawn.  The low temp here at my spot in the upper part of town has been 43.5F (6.4C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

Apart from our minor setback yesterday, we've had steadily warming temperatures since last Saturday, and that warm-up is set to resume today.  There is a ridge of high pressure sprawling across the Arabian Sea, poking northward into Pakistan and west-central India.  That has been causing a spring-like warming of the air mass to our southwest the last few days, and it still looks like some of that milder air is going to be surging into Himachal Pradesh as the weekend arrives.  We're not talking about true warmth... but it is going to be warmer than it's been since before our winter season settled in.  Barring too much high cloudiness dimming the sun's effect, we should see some 60F+ (16C) temps as early as Friday, lasting perhaps into Monday.

There's so much shuffling and flip-flopping of data resolution starting late Monday, and continuing through all of next week.  Suffice it to say, we've got a turn to unsettled conditions on the way, with a good chance of things turning wetter and cooler as at least a couple of storm systems sweep across northern India.  Of course we'll watch day-by-day as things evolve for the Losar holidays...

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

warmer surge coming... (pm.11.feb.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.5F (7.5C)
High temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Precipitation: none

Our sky is partly cloudy this evening, as it has been virtually all day.  We've had alternating periods of clouds and sun, with what seems like every variability and combination between the two.  The limited sunshine kept our temps just a shade cooler today, as expected.

A weak upper-level disturbance has been the trigger for the periods of cloudiness today, but it is moving off to our east-southeast right now, and will exit the picture shortly.  That's going to make way for a building ridge of high pressure and a steady and notable warming trend as we make our way into the weekend.  The air mass building across west-central India is the warmest of the approaching spring season, and will try very hard to surge northward into Himachal Pradesh between tomorrow and Sunday.  I may have to bump our temps up even higher -- as long as we don't get too many episodes of sun-dimming high clouds in the way.  Anyway, right now it looks like we've got a stretch of very pleasant mid-February weather on the way.

By Monday, things start to take a nose-dive.  It has been fun to watch all of the extended range computer model data, as it paints a picture of a very unsettled and potentially wetter, colder, and stormier scenario as next week unfolds.  At least part of the coming Losar holiday period could be rainy and chilly.

Forecast specs are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

a temporary wrinkle... (am.11.feb.15)>

It's partly cloudy just before sunrise this morning, and I'm recording a current temp (and overnight low) of 46.0F (7.8C).  There has been no precipitation since last report -- and it's now been exactly one week since there has been anything measurable in my rain gauge.

A weak upper-level disturbance has been wobbling into northern India during the past 12 hours or so, and will be the main influence on our weather today.  Clouds will be more prevalent than we've seen in the past two or three days, and there could even be an isolated light shower or two popping up somewhere around the area, according to the latest satellite pics.

This system will scoot off to the east tonight, allowing a fresh ridge of high pressure to build in for the latter part of the week.  A very mild air mass is developing to our south and southwest which is expected to surge northward as we head into the weekend -- bringing us our warmest temps since last autumn.  It still looks very likely that even my thermometer here at the top of McLeod Ganj will show temps above 60F (16C) sometime between Friday and Sunday.

But... a return to unsettled and potentially wet and stormy weather is looking like a good bet as early as Monday, and lasting through much of next week.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

very few challenges... (pm.10.feb.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 55.5F (13.1C)
Precipitation: none

It's been another really nice February day, with plenty of sunshine, and temperatures now running a bit above normal for the date.  There is an increase in high clouds evident on satellite pics just to our west-southwest, otherwise we have mostly clear skies just after sunset.

There's a weak disturbance scheduled to move across northern India later tonight and Wednesday, and that's probably going to give us more cloudiness than we've seen during the past couple of days -- but at this point it doesn't look like we'll be getting any rain out of the deal.  A timid push of slightly cooler air may temporarily halt our warming trend of the last four days, though it shouldn't be too dramatic.

Moderating temps will kick in again by Thursday, and it still looks like we are in line for some very pleasant conditions -- relatively speaking -- as we head into the weekend.  Unless too much high cloudiness stunts the sun's warming effect, we should see temperatures rising above 60F for the first time in a couple of months.  Unfortunately it's not going to last, as the trend will be toward cooler and potentially wet weather as the new week unfolds...

Get more detailed info on tabs above.

Monday, February 9, 2015

bright times... (pm.09.feb.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 43.9F (6.6C)
High temp: 54.3F (12.4C)
Precipitation: none

It's on the hazy side, otherwise we have clear skies just after sunset this evening.  Today was gorgeous -- as early February days go -- with lots of sunshine along with temperatures almost spot-on average for the date.  There was a good amount of cloud build-up over the mountains during the afternoon hours, but it never spoiled our sun in the least.

The weather pattern across the western Himalayan region is a quiet one, and will remain that way for the most part -- all the way into the weekend.  We have a general west-northwesterly upper-level flow in place, and it's going to keep a rather dry air mass anchored here, with only occasional periods of clouds.  There is a disturbance scheduled to drop in on Wednesday which has me a little concerned.  It will be moisture-starved, but with an infusion of slightly colder air aloft, I think it could give us a period of considerable cloud cover, along with a temporary halt in our recent warming trend.

But a very impressive push of unseasonably mild air will follow that weak system... and the data is still pointing to a springtime preview between Friday and Sunday, as temperatures surge well above normal for the middle of February.

Get details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

launching a warm-up... (am.09.feb.15)>

Our sky is absolutely clear on this Monday morning.  I'm recording a mild overnight low temp of 44.1F (6.7C), and there has been no precipitation to report.

We're in for a stretch of quiet weather, it appears, that could last for about a week.  There may be a few weak disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft that could graze us with some periods of cloudiness from time to time, otherwise there's very little going on.  Our air mass will be gradually warming, from the surface into the upper-levels, and that will more than likely deliver our warmest temperatures since November -- by the time we reach the end of this week.  Average high temps rise steadily during February, but we'll probably go ahead of that rate of increase, putting us above normal by Friday.

The next significant change in the weather pattern that might bring us our next chance of rain and snow looks like it could happen by Sunday into Monday of next week.  But -- the models have been doing a lot of flipping and flopping on the extended range data, so we'll just keep an eye on it day by day...

Sunday, February 8, 2015

an uneventful pattern... (pm.08.feb.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7F (6.5C)
High temp: 52.8F (11.6C)
Precipitation: none

It's looking just fine out there this evening, with partly cloudy skies and very tolerable temperatures for this time of year.  We started out with mostly cloudy conditions today, but some glimpses of sun became more frequent as the afternoon unfolded -- and as far as I am aware, there was never any rain shower action in McLeod itself.

The weak upper-level disturbance which has been tracking across northern India during the past 18 hours or so was never able to really get its act together -- producing only some scattered snow showers in the highest elevations along the Dhauladhars overnight into mid-day.  All along we were expecting any rainfall in our area to be only scattered and on the light side, but I don't think anyone was expecting us to get nothing at all.  But since the major storm system early last week gave us our entire normal/average amount of precipitation for February, it isn't a crisis.

Unless there are some pretty dramatic twists/turns in the plot, we should see generally dry weather during the coming week to ten days or so, as an uneventful northwesterly flow pattern puts the brakes on any potential storm system development.  There will be a series of weak disturbances drifting through, however, which will keep us in and out of the sun.  The bigger news is the warming trend which is expected this week... it's still looking like we could push the magical 60F (16C) mark here in town by Friday or Saturday.

Forecast details and other info are available on tabs above.

watching for a shower... (am.08.feb.15)>

Waking up to cloudy skies on this Sunday morning, but there's no sign of any precipitation out there at the moment.  I'm recording a current and overnight low temp of 44.2F (6.8C), and there's been nothing more than a trace of rain since last report -- if that.

A wimpy upper-level disturbance is gliding across northern India this morning, and with a bit of "lift" in the atmosphere along with a batch of moisture that has been drawn northward up and against the mountains... there could yet be some shower development today.  For the last several days, computer models have been consistently projecting only light amounts of precipitation (less than 1cm/0.40") with this system in our area, and unless something gets going in the next 6-8 hours or so, we won't even get that.  Still -- be aware of the risk of a couple of periods of rain today, and a bit of thunder isn't impossible in the midst of it.  Rain chances should diminish altogether by about 8:00pm at the latest.

The remainder of this week looks storm-free, with the main headline being a significant warming trend which could take us close to 60F (16C) by Friday.  Weather charts now are showing a sort of preliminary taste of spring, before things cool off a bit and rain chances increase once again around Losar.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.