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Thursday, February 19, 2015

LOSAR's wet start... (am.19.feb.15)>


Although it was dry for most of the night, some light rain showers redeveloped around 6:00am, and currently at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center there are some light sprinkles of rain... along with some rumbles of thunder. (*Rain has become heavier just as I posted this).  My rain gauge is showing 0.06" (2mm) since the last report at 8:00pm, and I'm recording a low temperature of 43.3F (6.3C) which has just occurred in the last hour or so.

The most potent in the series of disturbances that we've been dealing with since very early Monday morning is now moving across northern Pakistan into north India.  This one has more dynamic energy and moisture available to it than the previous two or three disturbances this week -- and unfortunately for the timing, will provide us with periods of rain and thunder through tomorrow (Fri) afternoon or evening.  As I've said before, I don't expect it to rain continuously -- hopefully there will be some breaks here and there -- but computer models are in fairly good agreement that we could see 1.0-1.5" (2.5-3.8cm) of rain, in addition to the inch+ that's already added up since before dawn on Monday.  There could be some small hail during a thundershower, but authentic snowfall should remain well above us.

Vast improvements are expected by Friday night, which should last through the weekend. A major warm-up will get underway, as a big ridge of high pressure builds in for a few days.  But then things go downhill again -- a strong storm system is being advertised by the models for the mid-week period.

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