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Sunday, February 1, 2015

nothing bothersome yet... (am.01.feb.15)>

February has arrived.  We have partly cloudy skies as the sun comes up this morning, with not much evidence of our approaching storm system.  I've recorded an overnight low of 41.5F (5.3C) -- the mildest in several days -- and there has been no precipitation since last report.

A broad upper-level trough of low pressure continues to slowly form to our west and northwest, but it has not developed to the point where we're seeing an outbreak of rain and snow across northern India... yet.  The models are still projecting some scattered showers before the end of the day, but as we've been talking about all along, it's the late Monday through Tuesday night period that we really have to be concerned about.  That's when this system will reach maturity, drawing abundant moisture up against the mountain slopes as mid- and upper-level energy passes overhead.

As of now, it looks like we could end up with an OK Sunday -- just be aware of the potential for some scattered rain showers eventually developing as the day wears on.  That rain potential will increase throughout the day tomorrow (Mon), with periods of moderate to heavy rain likely between late Monday afternoon and the wee hours of Wednesday morning.  They'll be measuring snow in the feet in the mountains above, but a mild air mass feeding into this system will most likely prevent any snow from happening here at our elevation.  Surprises do happen, though... so let's keep watch.