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Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

taste of turbulence... (pm.30.apr.15)>

*Update @ 7:46pm... Finally, a respectable thundershower in progress.  There's been a bit of small hail and some briefly moderate to heavy rain during the past 15-20mins or so. But it doesn't look like it will last very long...

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 52.7F (11.5C) -- updated @ 8:45pm
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 0.32" (8mm) -- updated @ 8:45pm

We have cloudy skies just before dark this evening, and there have been some faint rumbles of thunder, along with a few fleeting light raindrops during the past hour or so.  Our sunshine today was very limited -- confined to a short period just after noon, and then again for a while during the mid-afternoon hours.  But despite all the cloudiness, the rain itself has been very sparse, and not even enough to register a measurement in the gauge.  We've also had gusty winds off and on all day, with some very high wind gusts between about 9:40 and 10:00am.

The center of our latest upper-level disturbance is rolling across extreme northern Pakistan at the moment -- driving this spell of turbulent weather all across the western Himalayan region.  All of the significant rainfall has remained north of us so far, but it's still possible that we could get some measurable rain from widely scattered showers and thundershowers which will be roaming the landscape all the way through Saturday.  I'm pretty confident that we'll be seeing much more sunshine both tomorrow (Fri) and Saturday, but pockets of colder air aloft will interact with warmer air at the surface to keep our atmosphere unstable enough for a thundershower or two... mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

The models are showing an aggressively building ridge of high pressure over most of northwest India starting on Sunday, which could end up being our dominant weather feature for most of next week.  This should provide us with generally dry weather, and also generate a significant warming trend for our first week of May.  In fact, it's looking like we could easily end up above normal/average for the season by Tuesday.

If you're interested in more detailed info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, you can click on tabs located at the top of the home page.

some showers around... (am.30.apr.15)>

Our sky is totally overcast early this morning, and there is a very light rain shower which has just begun.  The rain gauge is showing nothing measurable up til now -- and I'm recording an overnight low temp of 60.1F (15.6C).

A very slow-moving upper-level disturbance is tracking along the northern border of Afghanistan this morning, and will continue to make its way eastward during the next 48 hours or so.  Clouds thickened up overnight, and this morning's satellite view shows several clumps of showers and thundershowers scattered across the western Himalayas.  Although all of the computer model output I'm seeing this morning is keeping precipitation amounts on the light side for us, we'll have to deal with a fairly good chance of at least widely scattered shower and thundershower activity in our vicinity all the way through tomorrow (Fri) evening -- with a chance of an isolated thundershower or two on Saturday as well.  On the other hand, I don't expect the sun to completely disappear, so we should see some bright spots in the midst of it all as well.

A very summery-looking ridge of high pressure is projected to build into northern India starting on Sunday, and right now it looks like it will stick around into the middle of next week.  That should provide us with a relatively stable atmosphere for a few days, along with a significant warming trend.  My high temp for the season thus far has been 80.7F (27.1C) on the 20th of April -- and we may have a shot at going above that by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details.

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

great, for the moment... (pm.29.apr.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
High temp: 76.2F (24.6C)
Rainfall: trace

It's about a 50/50 split between clouds and blue sky at sunset this evening, here at the end of a very nice and pleasant day.  We had full sunshine until the late morning when clouds began developing over the mountains.  Then, there was a brief period of mostly cloudy skies and at my house, even a couple of raindrops between about 2:30 and 3:00pm.  But the sun broke out again just after that, and stuck around for the rest of the day.  My high temp (see stats above) in the upper part of town was the warmest since Saturday.

Today we were under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure in between a couple of upper-level disturbances which have been moving across central Asia into the Himalayan region.  That provided us with a slightly more stable air mass, and prevented anything more than a couple of very spotty light showers from developing anywhere near us.  Also, it allowed some warmer air to briefly surge northward.  The next disturbance is on the way, though -- currently located over the middle of Turkmenistan -- expected to be moving into Jammu & Kashmir by early Saturday.  This is going to increase our chances of some scattered shower and thunderstorm action again, possibly very late tonight, but more likely on Thursday and Thursday night.  Right now it looks like that risk of at least widely scattered thundershowers could linger all the way through Saturday.  BUT -- there's still going to be plenty of hours of dry weather, including some sunshine thrown into the mix at times.

High pressure nosing in from the southwest will stabilize the atmosphere by Sunday, while allowing some very warm air to come knocking for at least the first half of next week.  It should feel very much like May is supposed to feel like by Monday or Tuesday...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has the details (tab above).

between disturbances... (am.29.apr.15)>

There is less haze this morning, which is nice to see -- and we have no clouds at all in these minutes before sunrise.  Lingering clouds last evening quickly gave way to mostly clear skies overnight, so there has been no rainfall since last report.  I'm recording a low temp of 58.8F (14.9C) here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.

A westerly flow aloft contains a few upper-level disturbances -- the first of which moved across northern India between late Monday and yesterday afternoon, stirring up some scattered thundershower action.  The next disturbance is scheduled for tomorrow (Thu) into Friday, and will increase again our risk of some isolated to widely scattered showers and thundershowers around the area.  In the meantime, we should see plenty of sunshine this morning, with a build-up of mountain clouds by this afternoon.  Even without a genuine disturbance in the area today, there could be just enough instability due to the daytime heating to trigger an isolated thundershower somewhere along the mountain slopes.

That risk of thundershowers on Thursday and Friday will come in the midst of a back-and-forth between clouds and sun, with temperatures likely to fluctuate radically between periods of sun and showers -- as we experienced yesterday.  Our atmosphere may remain just unstable enough to trigger another isolated thundershower or two on Saturday, then there are hints of a pretty major jump in temperatures and lots of sunshine as a rather strong ridge of high pressure builds in early next week.  I've already recorded three 80º+ temperatures this season, and it looks like more of those will be on the way.

You can check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

from sun to showers and back... (pm.28.apr.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
High temp: 72.3F (22.4C)
Rainfall: 0.14" (4mm)

It's bright and pleasant this evening before sunset, with towering thunderheads visible off to our southeast.  We started off with hazy sunshine this morning, but clouds developed over the mountains by 11:00am, which led to lots of rumbling thunder (but no rain) for a couple of hours during the early afternoon.  We did finally get a few light rain showers, with even a brief period or two of small hail, between about 2:30 and 4:30pm -- but even then the sun was peeking through from time to time.  The low temp for the day (see above) occurred during a rain shower shortly past 4:00pm, but then it warmed up again quickly thereafter.

It was starting to look like we wouldn't get any rain at all in association with the upper-level disturbance which has been moving across northern India since yesterday afternoon -- but this afternoon we finally caught a little action.  That disturbance is departing now, but there is another one on the way for Thursday into Friday.  Tomorrow (Wed) we will be 'in between' disturbances, but there may still be enough instability during the afternoon to trigger a lone thundershower somewhere along the Dhauladhars.  Keep that in mind.  The risk of scattered thundershowers increases again either late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, continuing through Friday.  Again, long-lasting and widespread rainfall is not expected, but we could get at least two or three hours of rain during that period.

The first weekend of the new month will feature a good amount of sunshine, but there could yet be an isolated afternoon thundershower, especially on Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than normal as we enter May, but still in a very comfortable range for the season, or for any time of the year for that matter.

There are literally thousands of posts from the last five years archived on the right column of this page, and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on the tab above.

showers avoiding us... (am.28.apr.15)>

The haze is still with us early this morning, but there are zero clouds around at the moment.  It's been a quiet night, with no rainfall to report, and an overnight low of 59.5F (15.3C).

Yesterday a large area of showers and thunderstorms tracked across Kashmir, to our north.  And last night, another significant batch of thundershowers developed near Lahore, and passed by well to our south.  That has left us high and dry, as an upper-level disturbance moves across northern India.  Since Sunday afternoon the computer models had been looking less impressive in terms of rainfall for us, and that has indeed been the case thus far.  Still, there could be isolated thundershower development today somewhere around the area -- otherwise more hazy sunshine mixed with occasional clouds will be the scenario.

Another couple of minor disturbances will come rippling across north India between late Wednesday and Friday, so it is still smart to keep in mind the risk of a period or two of showers/thunder -- especially on Thursday into Friday.  Actually, in spite of a moderately unstable atmosphere, the latent moisture in the air which has been hanging around since late Saturday will be starting to retreat, so any thundershower action will probably not be very widespread or heavy... if it gets going at all.

Our temperatures have dropped several degrees from where they were most of last week, and we're now actually running a bit below normal for the tail end of April.  There will be some moderation over the course of the next several days, but it's still looking comfortable, overall, as we move into the first week of May.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.  There's also a lot of other info about normal/average conditions in McLeod Ganj on those tabs... in case you haven't checked them out before.

Monday, April 27, 2015

a bit mundane... (pm.27.apr.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 71.0F (21.7C)
Rainfall: none

There's still a lot of haze out there this evening at sunset, with partly cloudy skies otherwise.  Today we've seen the back-and-forth between clouds and sun that we were expecting, along with those very hazy conditions.  Thundershowers have held off so far, though our temperatures were a few degrees cooler than projected.

An upper-level disturbance is slowing moving across northern Pakistan at the moment, and has kept a fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms concentrated well to our north -- across Kashmir.  Each run of the computer model data since last evening has been less and less impressive with thundershower development here in our area in association with this system, but there still a good chance that we could catch a round of showers or thundershowers during the coming 24 hours or so.  Wednesday will probably be an 'in between' kind of day -- with another disturbance scheduled to move across northern India on Thursday into Friday.  That will increase our risk of some thundershowers once again.  Otherwise, we should continue to see this mix of hazy sun and clouds that has been so prevalent the last day or two.

Only isolated afternoon or early evening thunder potential exists over the weekend -- and right now it is looking marginally good enough to even include in the forecast.  Averaged out, our temperatures will remain pleasant enough, though perhaps a little bit cooler than normal for the April-to-May transition period...

Check the tabs above for other information, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

a game of variety... (am.27.apr.15)>

There is some haze hanging in the air, and a few clouds in the eastern sky, otherwise it's calm and quiet early this morning.  I recorded no rainfall overnight, along with a low temperature of 58.3F (15.6C).  It's currently 60.6F (15.9C) as the sun comes up.

I've been talking about a changing upper-level pattern for this new week, and it's taking shape right now.  In fact, it seems that dynamic ingredients throughout all layers of the atmosphere are shifting around, which should make for several days of fluctuating conditions.  The first thing to watch is an upper-level disturbance pusing in from the west-northwest later today, which will provide us with some scattered shower and thundershower development between this afternoon and Tuesday evening.  Models the last 12 hours are looking much less aggressive with the scope and scale of this potential precipitation event -- but keep in mind the risk of thundershower development nonetheless.  We should be dealing with a mix of hazy sun and clouds today otherwise.

Apart from a slight risk of a PM thundershower, Wednesday is looking fine at the moment, but then another disturbance brings another chance of showers and thunder on Thursday... perhaps lingering into Friday.  Our temperatures all week will respond quickly to sunshine (heading upward), but will also crash quickly in the event of a period of rain.  That means it would be a good idea to have a variety of clothing available if you're going to be out trekking or otherwise away from shelter.  Looking way ahead to the weekend -- the risk of isolated mainly PM thunder stays in the forecast, with temps just a shade below normal for early May.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

fluctuation phase... (pm.26.apr.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 68.9F (20.5C)
Rainfall: none

We have partly cloudy, hazy skies at sunset this evening, here at the end of a day which has featured much more cloudiness than we've seen during the past week or so.  There were also some nice periods of sunshine here and there, however, especially during the mid- to late afternoon hours.  My high temp in the upper part of McLeod was the coolest of the past nine days -- but still pleasant enough.

There was no thundershower development anywhere near us today -- just as all of the computer models were suggesting.  And that's because much warmer air moved in aloft, trapping a layer of relatively cooler air below, creating a mild inversion... which cut off any semblance of the instability necessary to produce showers and thunderstorms.  Yes, we had the clouds, but it was a shallow layer, unable to build very far upward.

It still looks like we're going to be dealing with an active and changeable weather pattern for most of this coming week, which is going to provide us with a variety of conditions.  The first in a series of two or three upper-level disturbances will begin to move in by tomorrow (Mon) afternoon, increasing our risk of some shower and thunderstorm development lasting through most of Tuesday.  There will probably be some kind of temporary stabilization on Wednesday, with another disturbance bringing us a chance of more scattered shower/thunder action on Thursday into Friday.  In the meantime, our temperatures will be going on a sort of roller-coaster ride -- entirely dependent on periods of sun versus periods of rain and thunder.  The bottom line is that we'll probably have a taste of everything by the time next weekend arrives.

Get a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page.

pattern in flux... (am.26.apr.15)>

It's partly cloudy and rather hazy at sunrise this Sunday morning.  I'm recording a low temperature of 58.3F (14.6C), and there has been no additional rainfall overnight.  In case you missed last evening's post, we had 0.48" (1.2cm) of rain during our thundershower episode yesterday afternoon.

After several days in a row with basically the same weather pattern -- very warm air at the surface, relatively colder air aloft generating afternoon instability, and rather low humidity -- the overall pattern is set to change during this new week.  Already we've seen some juicier air begin to creep in from the southeast which is going to make it feel much more humid.  Also, the upper-level flow is starting to swing around more to the west, allowing several upper-level disturbances to track across northern India between Monday and Friday.  All of this means that we're going to have to contend with a greater percentage of cloudiness during the coming week, more volatility in temperatures, and a better chance of occasional periods of showers and thundershowers.

Almost all of the computer model data is advertising a dry day today... but I think we still need to be on guard for an isolated shower/thundershower, especially this afternoon.  Then, that rain risk seems to be on the rise for Monday into Tuesday... perhaps diminishing again later on Tuesday into Wednesday... then increasing again for Thursday and Friday.  It should definitely be a week of significant variability, with the likelihood that our temperatures will be fluctuating quite a lot as well.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for the best guess at the details ahead...

Saturday, April 25, 2015

sun-thunder-sun... (pm.25.apr.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 78.0F (25.6C)
Rainfall: 0.48" (1.2cm)

The sun will be setting in just a few minutes, and we have mostly clear skies to accompany it.  Today's weather has swung from one extreme to the other -- with lots of sunshine this morning followed by a rapid build-up of clouds over the mountains around the noon hour, and then an impressive two-hour period of showers and thunder which also produced a couple of brief spells of small hail.  The low temp (see stats above) occurred shortly after 4:00pm in the middle of rain and hail -- a 24ºF/13ºC fall from the high temp of the day which occurred only two hours before.  Wow.

Isolated thundershowers have been popping up each and every afternoon during this past week or so along the Himalayan ranges, and today was obviously our day to cash in.  This evening's satellite pics show a couple of other dying clusters of thundershowers along the front slopes of the mountains to our southeast.  There are indications that a very quick push of warmer air aloft may stifle tomorrow afternoon's instability potential, but I think we still need to be on alert for the risk of a round of PM thundershowers.  It's just part and parcel of the warm season dynamics here along the Dhauladhars.  Otherwise there will likely be a good amount of sunshine again tomorrow, with temps close to the 80ºF mark yet again.

The weather pattern for much of next week is going to be a more active one, with several upper-level disturbances projected to swing across northern India, accompanied by increasingly cooler air in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  This is going to give us a good chance of occasional waves of showers and thunderstorms between Monday and at least Friday -- with temperatures dropping a few degrees as well.  The sun won't entirely disappear, however, making its presence known in between bouts of showers/thunder.

I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that I am shocked and devastated by the news today from Nepal.  I've been there many times since 1997, and can hardly believe the pictures/videos and news reports that have been coming out today.  I'm joining our weathergeek readers in praying for all those affected.  It's a very sad day...

same factors in play... (am.25.apr.15)>

We'll have abundant sunshine in a matter of minutes as the sun peeks over the Dhauladhars early on this Saturday morning.  It's been another clear, calm and quiet night, with no rainfall, and a low temperature of 62.4F (16.9C).  The current temp is hovering very near that overnight low.

I've recorded three 80ºF+ high temps since Monday, and there's a chance we could hit that number again today and tomorrow (Sun), as long as we don't get too much mountain cumulus development during the afternoon hours to cut down our sun-time.  This has indeed been a pleasant stretch of weather -- though I've already been hearing many people complain that it's getting too hot.  How quickly the tide can turn!

Again today we have to be aware of the afternoon instability factor which could lead to some isolated thundershower development along the mountains -- otherwise things are looking great.  Some even warmer air pushing in aloft on Sunday may trim back that afternoon instability, but then it will return again on Monday and Tuesday, as an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west.  Computer models are also showing a band of moisture creeping in from the southeast by Monday, so we're looking at a decent chance of at least a couple of rounds of showers and/or thunderstorms -- especially between Monday afternoon and late Tuesday night.  In fact, most of next week is looking rather unstable and changeable, with the potential for showers/thunder every day except perhaps on Wednesday.  Temperatures will also drop a few degrees, though it shouldn't be unpleasantly cool.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is on the tab at the top of the page, if you want specs.

Friday, April 24, 2015

weekend looking good... (pm.24.apr.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 80.2F (26.8C)
Rainfall: trace

It's partly cloudy this evening just before sunset, at the end of another nice and warm day.  We started off with full sunshine again this morning, but clouds developed more aggressively over the mountains starting around 11:00am, and we had a couple of hours during the early afternoon during which things were looking a bit threatening.  There was a clap of thunder or two at about 3:00pm, and then a few random sprinkles of rain between then and about 4:30pm, but once again we got through the day without much drama.  My high temperature on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center was tied for the second warmest of the season and the year.

The weekend is upon us, but right now it looks like we'll be making it through without much change from what we've been experiencing the last several days.  There is still the risk of an isolated afternoon thundershower, mainly tomorrow (Sat) -- otherwise we should see a mix of sunshine and PM mountain cloudiness, along with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than normal for this stage of April.  That means we'll be hovering very close to 80ºF/27ºC for afternoon highs.

There is a pattern shift in our future, however, as moisture begins to creep in from the southeast and a couple of upper-level disturbances approach from the west.  This will give us a better chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms next week -- with the best chances between Monday afternoon and Tuesday night, then again on Thursday into Friday.  Right now it's not looking like anything to get overly worried about, but I think there is more of a potential for some bouts of wetter and cooler weather as we wrap up April and move into the month of May.

Check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

temps still above the norm... (am.24.apr.15)>

Again we have totally clear skies as the sun rises this morning.  I'm recording a mild overnight low temp of 61.7F (16.5C), and there has been no rainfall to report.  In fact, I've measured only 0.09" (2mm) of rain in the past week, which has been a nice turn-around.

The general situation of the past several days will persist into the weekend, with a warm air mass in place in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere, and some random pools of colder air aloft.  That kind of scenario is great for sunshine during at least the first half of the day, but also keeps us slightly concerned about isolated thundershower development in the vicinity of the mountains by the mid-afternoon hours. Those thundershowers have avoided us the last couple of days -- concentrated a bit further to our southeast -- but we still need to be aware of the possibility both this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon.  It looks like a push of warmer air aloft on Sunday may get rid of that minor instability factor, however.  Our temperatures throughout the weekend should stay in this slightly above normal range.

Some kind of a shift in the upper-level pattern on Monday will set us up for a better chance of at least scattered shower or thunderstorm action by Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  The computer model output this morning is looking a bit different than it did yesterday, in terms of clearing things out for the rest of next week, but temperatures could be several degrees cooler.  That new pattern doesn't seem to be resolved though, so as always, we'll have to watch it day by day.

Get other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, on tabs at the top of the page.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

the right combinations... (pm.23.apr.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
High temp: 79.8F (26.6C)
Rainfall: none

The gorgeousness continues on... it's another perfect evening, with clear skies to the west and south, and a few mountain clouds lingering to our north and east.  Apart from that build-up of mountain cumulus clouds this afternoon, we had pretty much unrestricted sunshine today, allowing the thermometer at my location in the upper part of town to nudge 80ºF yet again.  Temperatures the last several days have been above normal for the season -- which contributes toward an attempt to balance out the cooler than normal temps of the first half of the month.

Afternoon thundershower development was a phenomenon once again today along the Himalayan ranges... but the most significant activity was well to our southeast, according to satellite photos.  We did have some very minor showers pop up in the higher elevations along the Dhauladhars, but none of it came close to us here in McLeod.  From this vantage point, it appears that we'll have more of the same all the way through the weekend, with a mix of sunshine and mountain clouds, along with that risk of some isolated thundershower development during the afternoon or early evening hours.  Our temperatures may even warm up another couple of degrees between tomorrow (Fri) and Sunday.

A pattern shift in the form of cooler air aloft and encroaching moisture from the southeast spells a better chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, and again on Thursday of next week.  Our temperatures may temporarily cool off as well, as we make the April to May transition.  Stay tuned.

Check the tabs above if you are interested in forecast details and other info...

the comfort mode... (am.23.apr.15)>

It's another totally clear morning, with full sunshine on the way shortly.  There were a few clouds hanging around late last evening, but skies cleared out completely overnight.  I'm recording a low temp of 60.6F (15.9C), and there has been no precipitation to report.

Apart from the back-burner concern about a risk of isolated thundershower development over the mountains during the afternoon hours, our overall weather situation should remain relatively calm and comfortable as we push into and through the weekend.  The atmosphere is generally stable -- but with lots of morning sunshine warming up the surface layers, we've got to watch cloud development over the mountains by noon, and then at least be aware of those couple of mid-afternoon isolated thundershowers popping up somewhere.  Temperatures continue to run slightly warmer than computer model projections, and also a bit warmer than normal/average for this time of year.  No complaints there.

There are hints of some kind of pattern change on the way early next week which could bring us a better chance of a few waves of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, while also possibly cooling us off several degrees as we progress through next week.  That's far enough away that anything could change... but we'll keep an eye on it.

As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has the details.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

warmest since september... (pm.22.apr.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 78.0F (25.6C)
Rainfall: none

We're in the midst of the warmest days of the year thus far -- my high temperatures recorded in the upper part of town during the last three days have been warmer than anything we've experienced since last September.  Today was pretty much perfect, with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and just a few clumps of cumulus clouds over the mountains during the PM hours.  I did hear one lone rumble of thunder up there around 4:20pm.

There were a few isolated thundershowers along the Himalayan ranges from Kashmir southeastward into Nepal today -- but the highest concentration of that activity was in Nepal, where there is a more sufficient moisture source.  We've had drier air working its way into northern India during the past 24 hours or so, and that has diminished the fuel supply for thundershowers, despite a marginally unstable atmosphere.  We'll probably be looking at about the same scenario tomorrow (Thu), with a slight increase in the risk of a thundershower on Friday.  Otherwise, there's probably going to be plenty of sunshine ahead.

Subtle changes which include an increasing amount of moisture creeping in from the southeast, warming aloft, and a bit of upper-level energy moving in from the west will all team up to bring us a slowly changing pattern by early next week.  In fact, we may be dealing with a better chance of some periods of showers and thunderstorms by Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures in the meantime won't be swinging very radically in either direction... remaining very comfortable for the most part.

Check tabs at the top of the home page for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

the usual concerns... (am.22.apr.15)>

The sky is 100% clear at dawn, so it looks like we've got a sunny morning unfolding.  Isolated evening thundershowers dissipated rapidly after dark, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight.  I'm recording a low temp of 59.5F (15.3C), with no rainfall since last report.

On the surface of things, our weather pattern is very quiet and uneventful.  The atmosphere contains very little moisture, temps in the lower levels continue to run near to slightly above normal for this time of year, while some cooler air filters into the upper-levels of the atmosphere from the north-northwest.  This scenario should provide us with lots of sunshine during the morning hours during the remainder of this week, but that cooler air aloft is going to create some instability during the afternoon hours.  Be on the lookout for a cloud build-up over the mountains by mid-day, with the risk of random thundershower development after about 2-3pm or so.  It's a coin-toss as to whether one of those isolated thundershowers will pop up over us, or not -- but there will be some development along the Himalayan chains from Kashmir all the way southeastward into Nepal.

Our temps have surpassed 80ºF the last two days in a row, but I think we'll fall short of that the next couple of days at least.  Still, it's going to be very warm and comfortable... pretty much right on target for late April.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has all of the forecast details, above.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

warm sun and thunder... (pm.21.apr.15)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 80.2F (26.8C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm) -- updated @ 8:20pm

It is partly cloudy this evening as the sun goes down, though we still have a couple of towering cumulus clouds visible -- leftovers of the thundershower which moved through the area early this evening.  The day was full of hazy sunshine until the mountain clouds billowed during the mid-afternoon, which led to the first rumbles of thunder just after 3:30pm.  There was a period of light to moderate showers between roughly 5:00 and 5:30pm, but then it cleared out quickly, leaving us with this pleasantness at sunset.  I'll update the rainfall amount (above) later this evening.

Today's high just above 80ºF was a bit warmer than expected, and the second day in a row we've cracked that barrier.  Interesting how we've gone from well below normal temperatures to well above -- in only about 4-5 days.  We've definitely crossed the line into summertime weather dynamics, with warmer air at the surface interacting with lingering cooler air aloft -- leading to sunny and warm days with isolated mountain thunder development during the PM hours.  It's going to remain a bit unstable during the afternoon/early evening hours all the way into the weekend, so don't be surprised by some random thundershowers after about 3pm on any given day.  Still, there should be plenty of sunshine to enjoy otherwise.

I've been underforecasting high temperatures almost every day lately... due to my paranoia about cloud development which would put a damper on the warming of this late April atmosphere.  But it seems that we remain in line for temperatures near or perhaps just slightly above normal throughout the next five days at least.  Of course it never pays to get overconfident about anything more than a day or two in advance around here, though.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

flirting with summer... (am.21.apr.15)>

The low temperature of the whole night is happening now as I type -- 63.1F (17.3C) -- which is a bit cooler than it was this time yesterday morning, but still milder than normal for this time of year.  There were more rumbles of thunder, some gusty winds, and a few brief sprinkles of rain again overnight, but I've got nothing measurable in the rain gauge.  In fact, there's been only a trace of rainfall in total, in association with the disturbance flirting with us the past 36 hours or so.

What's left of that weak upper-level disturbance is actually very close to us early this morning, after triggering a few waves of showers and thunderstorms which remained just barely to our north and northeast.  For the first time this season, the bubble of warm, summertime air has pushed far enough northward to shield us from the effects of one of those disturbances -- if only by a hair.

There's still going to be some lingering instability across Himachal today, however, so an isolated thundershower or two is not out of the question, mainly during the mid-day and afternoon hours.  Otherwise we'll see more of this sun/cloud mix, with temperatures remaining close to normal for the season.  The rest of the week will most likely feature more of the same -- marginal instability keeping occasional clouds in the forecast, along with the slight risk of an afternoon thundershower.  As long as we don't get too much cloud development, our temps will be comfortably warm all the way into the weekend.  Overall, we're dealing with a fairly typical late April scenario...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for specifics.

Monday, April 20, 2015

hitting 80ºf... (pm.20.apr.15)>

Low temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
High temp: 80.7F (27.1C)
Rainfall: trace

HEADLINE:  It's the warmest day of 2015

FEATURES: Pre-dawn thunder, sprinkles and gusty winds.  Clouds until mid-morning.  Hazy sunshine mid-morning until late afternoon.  Increasing clouds around 4:30pm.  Late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms developing and passing just to our north.

PROJECTIONS: Upper-level disturbance moving from northern Pakistan into Kashmir will trigger more scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight -- with most activity north of us. Marginal instability expected tomorrow (Tue), with a risk of an isolated thundershower or two, mainly PM.  Temps slightly cooler, but still close to seasonal norms.

EXTENDED: Weak upper-level low pressure trough in vicinity into the weekend.  A mix of clouds and sun.  Risk of mainly PM thundershower development mainly over the mountains.  Slightly better rain chance Friday.  Temps near or just a bit cooler than normal for late April.

Explore tabs above for more detailed information.

a bit on edge... (am.20.apr.15)>

We have mostly cloudy skies early on this Monday morning, and there has been a very light rain shower here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center in the past 20 minutes or so.  Although there were a couple of periods of very gusty winds, sprinkles of rain and a rumble of thunder or two, my rain gauge is showing nothing measurable to report.  Temperatures have remained very mild overnight -- I'm recording a low temp of 67.1F (19.5C), and it's currently 69.0F (20.6C).

A ripple of energy in the upper-atmosphere is slowing moving from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan this morning.  It has generated a few waves of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it, but almost all of that action has remained to our north and northeast.  We've literally been on the very southern fringe during the past 12 to 18 hours.  The latest data continues to show us barely to the south of the main shower/thunderstorm development today into tonight -- so honestly, it could go either way for us.  We'll probably see a little of everything today -- clouds, some sun, and that potential for a thunderstorm to develop overhead at any time.

Most of the moisture and upper-level energy associated with this system will fizzle out by tomorrow (Tues) morning, but there could still be an isolated thundershower or two around the area though tomorrow afternoon.  The rest of the week is looking marginally unstable -- with a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with a concern nearly everyday of a bit of shower/thunder development over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures should remain fairly close to normal for the season throughout this coming week...

Get details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

threat of thunder... (pm.19.apr.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 62.3F (16.8C)
High temp: 77.7F (25.4C)
Rainfall: trace

There are some breaks in the overcast this evening just before sunset, but we can still call it mostly cloudy.  Today unfolded according to plan and without surprises -- apart from the fact that our temperatures were a degree or two warmer than expected.  That gave us a new high for the season and the year (see stats above).  We had constant alternation between sunshine and clouds, with a couple of periods of brief sprinkles of rain and even some rumbling thunder between about 3:00 and 4:30pm.  Those raindrops were not enough to register a measurement in the gauge.

The general weather situation has been pretty fantastic the last three days, with our temps getting back to normal for mid-April, and even a bit above.  We've also had very little rain to worry about, along with a good amount of sunshine.  But our attention is now swinging toward the west, where an upper-level disturbance is making its way into Afghanistan.  Already this system has triggered widespread thunderstorm development over the western Himalayas, from northern Pakistan into Kashmir, and will cause an increase in the likelihood of at least a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms in our area between tonight and late Monday night.  It won't rain continuously during that period -- at least I don't think so -- but be aware of potentially rapid changes, even if there are some nice sunny breaks at times.

Our atmosphere will attempt to stabilize on Tuesday, but I still think we could have an isolated thundershower or two around the area.  For the rest of the week, it looks like there will be a weak trough of low pressure aloft hanging over north India into Nepal -- and despite a continuation of seasonably warm temperatures, we'll probably have to deal with considerable afternoon cloud development, along with a risk of a PM thundershower or two as well.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab at the top of the page if you're interested in the specifics.

some things to watch... (am.19.apr.15)>

This morning I'm recording an overnight low temp of 62.4F (16.9C), which is the warmest low of the season and the year.  That comes on the heels of yesterday's high of 75.7F (24.3C), which was the warmest high of the year.  This morning we have partly cloudy skies as the sun comes up -- and there has been no rainfall since last evening's report.

A large bubble of very warm air extends from southern Pakistan into central India, and we are catching the northern fringes of that summertime air mass.  But we're also not too far from a battle line between air masses that is setting up just to our north.  As a weak upper-level circulation moves from Afghanistan into Kashmir during the next 36 hours or so, there's going to be some shower and thunderstorm development across the western Himalayan region -- along the path of where the greatest temperature gradient overlaps with the approaching upper-level energy.  Right now it appears that the most significant rainfall will remain just north of us, but I think we still have to be prepared for some shower/thunderstorm activity, perhaps this afternoon, but more likely overnight.  In the meantime, it's going to remain pleasantly warm.

There will be a good chance of a couple of waves of showers/thunder on Monday and Monday night, with a stabilizing trend appearing by Tuesday.  For the rest of next week, it's looking like we'll see temperature close to seasonal norms, along with more of this sun/cloud mix.  We're also going to have to be aware of some afternoon thunder potential, especially by Friday and Saturday...

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

a new high for 2015... (pm.18.apr.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
High temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: none

There are some patches of mainly high clouds around the area before sunset this evening, but it's gorgeous out there nonetheless.  As expected, we did have to deal with some periods of cloudiness -- especially between the late morning and mid-afternoon hours -- but there was plenty of sunshine to go around as well.  Our warming trend over the course of the past 48 hours has been remarkable, and today I registered my highest temperature of 2015 -- just eclipsing the previous high of 75.5F (24.2C) back on the 28th of March.

Yes, the warmest air mass of the year has become established across much of the Indian subcontinent, and temperatures are pushing 100ºF/38ºF on the plains to our south.  It's getting to be summertime in India.  But here in the Himalayas, we're far enough north to still be catching the fluctuating jet stream flow which can bring in the occasional upper-level disturbances even during the generally dry season before the monsoon kicks in by late June.  We've got one of those disturbances moving across northeastern Iran right now, and it is going to bring us an increasing risk of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms between Sunday and Tuesday.  Right now, it appears that the best chance of that happening would be between Sunday night and late Monday night.

People keep talking about how cool it's been this season so far... but did you know that last year the first 70º/21ºC temp didn't occur until around the 20th of April?  This year we've already had eleven 70ºF+ days, the first of which occurred on the 23rd of March.  I've learned that when it comes to weather, people have very short memories.  And perhaps that memory deficiency applies to lots of other things as well.

feeling good... (am.18.apr.15)>

It's a seasonably mild early morning -- my overnight low temp of 57.6F (14.2C) is very close to average for mid-April.  Apart from a few wisps of high cirrus clouds, our sky is mostly clear as the sun rises.  There has been no rainfall since last report.

Yesterday's big jump in temps put us above 70ºF again, for the first time since last Sunday.  We'll probably warm up even more today, but there could be an issue with increasing high clouds coming in from the west, and also the potential for the build-up of some mountain cumulus during the afternoon.  At any rate, it's looking like a nice and seasonably warm Saturday.

A weak upper-level disturbance will begin to affect us by tomorrow (Sun), however, but there's a good amount of inconsistency between the models as to exactly how much shower and thunderstorm development is going to occur.  Right now I'd say our risk of at least an isolated thundershower or two will increase during the day tomorrow, with then at least a 50/50 shot at a few rounds of showers/thunder between Sunday night and very early Tuesday morning.  There seems to be very little cooling of the air mass occurring in association with this system, so temps should bounce back quickly after any rainy episodes.

The heat is building intensely on the plains of north India now -- so we are the lucky ones, with these pleasantly warm conditions here on the mountain slopes.  Check out the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK above.

Friday, April 17, 2015

a warm weekend... (pm.17.apr.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
High temp: 71.7F (22.1C)
Rainfall: none

We have a comfortable evening underway, with partly cloudy skies.  Today has been the warmest since last Sunday -- as we've finally cracked the 70ºF mark again -- and maybe the best all-around performance since Sunday as well.  There's been lots of sunshine, despite the attempt at a build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon.

Our current pattern is allowing a surge of much warmer air to progress north and northeastward into Himachal Pradesh, taking us back close to where we should be for mid-April.  As I've been saying, it's not a totally clean and clear and care-free situation we're in, but it is looking like things should be fairly quiet for most of the upcoming weekend.  The main concerns during the next 36 hours or so will be the potential for enough mainly afternoon instability to lend itself to some mountain clouds and perhaps a stray thundershower up there in the higher elevations.  Temperature-wise, we should be close to the warmest of this spring/early summer season thus far.

A weak upper-level disturbance is scheduled for the Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning timeframe.  Slightly cooler air aloft is going to overrun these warm temperatures at the surface -- setting the stage for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Apart from the risk of some isolated afternoon thundershowers, the rest of next week looks seasonably warm with a good amount of April sunshine.

More info can be found on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

temps heading up... (am.17.apr.15)>

No rain, no clouds, not even any haze -- instead we have 100% clear skies at dawn on this Friday morning.  I'm recording a low temp of 53.2F (11.8C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.  Our total rainfall between noon on Wednesday and about 2:45pm yesterday (Thu) afternoon was only 0.30" (8mm).

We're poised for a major warm-up across the area today, as the large bubble of warmer air which has been lurking to our southwest for several days is finally going to be able to advance northeastward.  Our air mass is drying out a bit as well, with more continuity between the temp/moisture profiles throughout the different layers of the atmosphere both today and tomorrow (Sat).  That doesn't mean we are totally free and clear, however.  We'll still have to watch for an increase in clouds over the mountains by mid-day, which could lead to isolated thundershower development up there during the afternoon hours.  Still -- it's going to be an overall marked improvement for us as we head into the weekend.

Computer models are advertising a weak upper-level disturbance which will move in from the west by Sunday evening, increasing again our risk of a few rounds of showers and/or thunderstorms between then and very early Tuesday morning.  Moisture appears to be very limited with this system, but with some much warmer air at the surface, and slight cooling aloft, there is going to be some instability, for sure.  But it's then looking fairly quiet and seasonably warm for the balance of next week...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for the latest forecast info.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

making another turn... (pm.16.apr.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 52.7F (11.5C)
High temp: 61.8F (16.6C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.12" (3mm)
Rainfall since Wed noon: 0.30" (8mm)

We're in excellent shape as we finish off this Thursday, with mostly clear skies.  Our day has indeed turned around, with plenty of sunshine since shortly after 3:00pm -- but it was a damp, cool and gloomy story up until that point.  Although the amount of rain we've received has been fairly light (see stats above), the showers were frequent throughout the morning into the early afternoon hours.  Temperatures today have been way below normal, and even a few degrees cooler than expected.

A large area of unseasonably moist air has been sprawled across northern India the last couple of days, and even though there's been no really discernable disturbance moving through the area, the fluctuating temperatures in the various levels of the atmosphere have provided the 'lift' here along the front ranges of the Himalayas necessary to trigger these light showers and thundershowers during the last 30 hours or so.  It should be some consolation, however, that our temps haven't been as cool as they were during the rainy period just a little over a week ago.

Drier air is moving in right now, and with a west-northwest flow in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere this weekend, all of the computer models are projecting at least a couple of days of nicer and more pleasant weather.  In fact, as long as we don't get some rogue thundershower development over the mountains during the afternoons (which is not impossible), there should be a good amount of sunshine on the way, along with a major jump in temperatures.  There is a disturbance on the way by Sunday night which will increase the risk of some shower/thunderstorm action through Monday -- but at least right now, it looks like a quiet stretch will set in again by Tuesday.

Stay tuned as we keep watching day by day... and check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above for forecast details.

dodging raindrops... (am.16.apr.15)>

Light rain is in progress early this morning with cloudy skies -- there were a couple of faint rumbles of thunder just before dawn as well.  In fact, I saw a a few flashes of lightning off and on during the middle of the night, but there wasn't much rain until just the last half hour or so.  My rain gauge is showing just 0.07" (2mm) since about 9:30pm.  The overnight low has been 53.4F (11.9C), which is very close to the current temp.

The latest satellite pics show a cluster of rain showers and embedded thundershowers very slowly drifting east-southeastward across western Jammu & Kashmir and the northwestern half of Himachal Pradesh.  The way it's looking, we'll have showers in the vicinity for most of the morning, with a good bet for more scattered showers and potential thundershowers this afternoon as well.  A brisk flow in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will start to kick in by this evening, however, and that will start to drive some drier air into our area.  With a little luck, we may get to play some hide-and-seek with the sun -- with temperatures today entirely dependent upon at least some sunshine making an appearance.

Things are still looking significantly better and brighter tomorrow (Fri), and through most of the coming weekend.  We'll have a sun/cloud mix, along with a very noticeable upward trend in temperatures.  There are a couple of computer models showing the warmest air of the season briefly surging in on Saturday and Sunday, before a new upper-level disturbance begins to drop in.  The risk of showers and thunderstorms will increase again Sunday night into Monday, then diminish by Tuesday.  Yes, it's a lot of up and down and back and forth these days...

Get THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details on the tab above.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

a showery spell... (pm.15.apr.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: 0.11" (3mm) -- as of 9:30pm

There are occasional light rain showers in the area this evening, with mostly cloudy skies. It's been a day of extreme variability, with almost full sunshine for a few hours this morning, followed by rapidly increasing clouds before noon, and then several periods of light rain showers and thunder -- the first of which got started around 12:45pm.  Rainfall amounts have been light, with a few glimpses of sunshine occurring in between.  Temperatures today have been several degrees cooler than normal, but not really all that unpleasant.

The showers today are not a surprise... as we've been anticipating this since late last week.  There's a batch of unseasonably moist air lurking just to our south, with just enough battle between temperature disparities in different layers of the atmosphere to provide the 'lift' necessary to squeeze out these rain showers.  Conditions will remain favorable for a few more periods of showers/thunder through Thursday, though we'll probably continue to see some back-and-forth between sun and clouds as well.

Significantly drier air is showing up on the computer models -- sweeping in by late Thursday night, and sticking around through most of the weekend.  That drier air will be accompanied by a decent warm-up as well, which will put us right back in the normal range for mid-April.  An upper-level disturbance will come knocking by late Sunday night or Monday, but very limited moisture may restrict the rain potential.  All in all, the extended forecast contains nothing wildly out of the ordinary for this time of the year.

Other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, can be found on tabs above.

a period of variability... (am.15.apr.15)>

We have a clear sky at dawn this morning, though it is still quite hazy.  I'm recording a low temp of 56.5F (13.6C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

There were a few brief sprinkles of rain scattered around the area for a little while yesterday afternoon, but it was not nearly enough to register a measurement in the rain gauge.  That made six days in a row without measurable rainfall.  We've had to deal with extensive haze and patches of low cloudiness for the past couple of days, however, due to unseasonably warm air in the upper atmosphere lying on top of relatively cooler air closer to the surface.  That phenomenon is known as an inversion, and it has robbed us of the kind of nice sunshine we enjoyed for several days previously.

Our weather pattern is much better than it was for about 11-12 days in a row back at the very end of March and early April, but we're still not totally free and clear and worry-free.  In fact, computer models are showing the potential for a couple of periods of showers and/or thundershowers both today (Wed) and Thursday, in the midst of a mix of sun and clouds.  The risk of rain seems to drop again for most of the weekend, but then an upper-level disturbance easing in from the west-northwest will re-introduce a fairly good chance of some shower and thundershower action by Sunday night, lasting through Monday.

Temperatures the last couple of days have slipped back below normal, though not too unpleasantly cool.  All the models are showing a significant warming trend kicking in again as we progress into the weekend -- though we're going to need to come up with a better percentage of sunshine to get back into the 70-75ºF/21-24ºC range.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

inversion issues... (am.14.apr.15)>

As the sun gets ready to peek over the Dhauladhars this morning, we have partly cloudy and hazy skies.  I'm recording an overnight low (and current temp) of 55.0F (12.8C), and there has been no rainfall overnight.

The subtleties and nuances of the atmosphere are endlessly entertaining... and often irritating.  The warmest air of this season has been building across northern India in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, but there is now relatively cooler air in the mid- and lower levels that has led to the formation of a classic inversion.  That's why we've had all this haze and patchy low cloudiness since yesterday.  As the sun comes up and starts heating things up a bit, I'm fairly certain we'll see the development of clouds again today -- and that's robbing us of the pleasantly warm temperatures we've had the last several days and were expecting to stick around.  But it only takes the slightest variations in the way the temperatures of different layers of the atmosphere interact, so let's hope maybe it all tips more in our favor.

The models are showing an increasing chance of some isolated to widely scattered shower or thundershower activity on Wednesday into Thursday, then a blast of drier and warmer air coming in on Friday and Saturday.  THEN -- another chance of some thundershowers early next week.  This pattern is a rather changeable one, but not overly unpleasant for this time of year.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) for forecast details.

Monday, April 13, 2015

unwelcome clouds... (pm.13.apr.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 66.3F (19.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's hazy, with a lot of low cloudiness across the area just after sunset this evening.  Today has been an overall disappointment, as our sunny skies early this morning quickly gave way to extensive cloud development.  Although we've had occasional glimpses of sunshine, we could say that it's been mostly cloudy since about 10:00am.  In response to the limited sunshine, our temperatures were several degrees cooler than expected.

As you may have gathered from this morning's post, I had some misgivings about this current weather pattern delivering what the computer models were suggesting.  But even so, I was surprised that we had so much cloud development today.  Satellite pics all day long have showed cloudiness confined to the vicinity of the front slopes of the mountains, with lots of sun across the rest of northern India -- the price we occasionally pay for our location this close to the Dhauladhar range.  Rapid warming aloft is obviously not in agreement with the relatively cooler layer of air trapped in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Although we have no major storm systems on the weather charts during the next several days, these nuances of low-level moisture and temperature disparities in our early summertime atmosphere will keep us on edge with regard to both cloudiness and potential shower/thunder development.  This air mass is warm enough to deliver temperatures right in the normal range for mid-April, as long as we can get enough sunshine on the subject...

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

right on track... (am.13.apr.15)>

Our Monday morning is dawning with clear skies, after a clear and quiet night.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 55.8F (13.2C) and there has been no precipitation.

Although there's not much going on weatherwise during the coming week or so, there are a few tricky spots that need to be watched.  A weak but large area of low pressure aloft is spinning over central India this morning, and will continue weakening as it drifts off to the east-southeast during the next 24-36 hours.  In the meantime, a new high pressure ridge will begin to build in from the west.  On the surface of things, that kind of scenario would point to a dry and quiet week ahead, with gradually warming temperatures.  However there is some unseasonably moist air in the lower layers of the atmosphere lurking to our south and southeast which, with only a bit of instability, could lead to some widely scattered thundershowers along the front ranges of the mountains -- all the way from Kashmir to Nepal.  The best chance of that happening looks to be between Wednesday and Thursday evening, but I think there could be some isolated development during the afternoon/evening hours pretty much any day this week.  Otherwise, the sunshine is looking plentiful... just be aware of that PM shower risk.

Our temperatures have cooled off a couple of degrees since yesterday, but should be gradually on their way up again over the course of the coming six to seven days or so.  That will keep us in a very pleasant zone -- and very close to where we should be for this time of year.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

very few concerns... (pm.12.apr.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is partly cloudy this evening as sunset approaches, as it has been pretty much all day long.  There are a couple of isolated thundershowers lurking just to our northwest, but they should be losing their power as the sun goes down.  Today's high temp was slightly cooler than yesterday's but still squarely in the middle of the comfort zone.

The center of an upper-level low presssure circulation is almost right on top of Delhi at the moment, and though it's very weak, it is providing enough instability to trigger some isolated to widely scattered showers and thundershowers across about the northwest half of India.  At the same time, however, temperatures in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere continue to warm, so that instability is only marginal at best.  The nose of a new ridge of high pressure will start to push in from the west tomorrow, and that should erase our slight risk of thundershowers for the most part, at least for a couple of days.

Computer models are still hinting at an unseasonable advance of deeper moisture from the southeast on Wednesday into Thursday, which will keep us from being able to completely forget about the chance of some rain this coming week.  Any shower/thundershower action should be widely scattered at best, and probably confined to the afternoon and evening hours -- but keep that risk in mind nonetheless.  Temperatures will fluctuate slightly over the course of the coming week, but should remain within a couple of degrees of normal/average for mid-April.  And that's good news...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above - if you want forecast details.