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Wednesday, April 1, 2015

a busy weather pattern... (am.01.apr.15)>

It is mostly cloudy at sunrise on this Wednesday morning, the first day of April, but those clouds are mostly of the high-level variety.  We're getting a taste of some slightly milder temperatures as well -- I'm recording an overnight low of 52.9F (11.6C) here on Tushita Road in the upper part of town.  There has only been a trace of rainfall since last evening.

We remain in the middle of an active weather pattern -- an upper-level flow that contains several fast-moving disturbances, along with a batch of unseasonably moist air lurking just to our south and southwest.  These factors, in combination with a battle between milder air at the surface to our south and much cooler air in the mid- and upper-levels to our north is keeping us in a favorable position to receive more periods of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of this week.  Of course, as we've been expecting, there have been plenty of breaks between periods of rain, but we've been unable to get more than fleeting glimpses of sunshine since Sunday.

The latest disturbance is moving into northern Pakistan this morning, and should increase our risk of a couple of periods of rain and maybe a thundershower or two by this afternoon and evening, into the overnight hours.  Then there will probably be another temporary break in the action before the next disturbance stirs up another batch of rain and thunderstorms by Thursday night... probably lasting through Good Friday.  There are indications that rain chances will diminish somewhat on Saturday into Easter Sunday, but I think our air mass will remain unstable enough to trigger at least isolated to widely scattered showers/thundershowers anyway.  The point is, we're not looking at any kind of definitive stabilization and long-term clearing trend until sometime next week, and even then it's looking questionable.  As we all know... our temps are stuck in this well below normal/average range for at least another week...

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