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Sunday, April 26, 2015

pattern in flux... (am.26.apr.15)>

It's partly cloudy and rather hazy at sunrise this Sunday morning.  I'm recording a low temperature of 58.3F (14.6C), and there has been no additional rainfall overnight.  In case you missed last evening's post, we had 0.48" (1.2cm) of rain during our thundershower episode yesterday afternoon.

After several days in a row with basically the same weather pattern -- very warm air at the surface, relatively colder air aloft generating afternoon instability, and rather low humidity -- the overall pattern is set to change during this new week.  Already we've seen some juicier air begin to creep in from the southeast which is going to make it feel much more humid.  Also, the upper-level flow is starting to swing around more to the west, allowing several upper-level disturbances to track across northern India between Monday and Friday.  All of this means that we're going to have to contend with a greater percentage of cloudiness during the coming week, more volatility in temperatures, and a better chance of occasional periods of showers and thundershowers.

Almost all of the computer model data is advertising a dry day today... but I think we still need to be on guard for an isolated shower/thundershower, especially this afternoon.  Then, that rain risk seems to be on the rise for Monday into Tuesday... perhaps diminishing again later on Tuesday into Wednesday... then increasing again for Thursday and Friday.  It should definitely be a week of significant variability, with the likelihood that our temperatures will be fluctuating quite a lot as well.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for the best guess at the details ahead...