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Thursday, April 16, 2015

dodging raindrops... (am.16.apr.15)>

Light rain is in progress early this morning with cloudy skies -- there were a couple of faint rumbles of thunder just before dawn as well.  In fact, I saw a a few flashes of lightning off and on during the middle of the night, but there wasn't much rain until just the last half hour or so.  My rain gauge is showing just 0.07" (2mm) since about 9:30pm.  The overnight low has been 53.4F (11.9C), which is very close to the current temp.

The latest satellite pics show a cluster of rain showers and embedded thundershowers very slowly drifting east-southeastward across western Jammu & Kashmir and the northwestern half of Himachal Pradesh.  The way it's looking, we'll have showers in the vicinity for most of the morning, with a good bet for more scattered showers and potential thundershowers this afternoon as well.  A brisk flow in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will start to kick in by this evening, however, and that will start to drive some drier air into our area.  With a little luck, we may get to play some hide-and-seek with the sun -- with temperatures today entirely dependent upon at least some sunshine making an appearance.

Things are still looking significantly better and brighter tomorrow (Fri), and through most of the coming weekend.  We'll have a sun/cloud mix, along with a very noticeable upward trend in temperatures.  There are a couple of computer models showing the warmest air of the season briefly surging in on Saturday and Sunday, before a new upper-level disturbance begins to drop in.  The risk of showers and thunderstorms will increase again Sunday night into Monday, then diminish by Tuesday.  Yes, it's a lot of up and down and back and forth these days...

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