the latest...

This blog has been inactive for several months, but you can still check the archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general info.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

seasonably warm... (am.11.apr.15)>

It's a perfect mid-April morning we've got going.  Our sky is clear as the sun comes up, and my temperature here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center is very near the overnight low of 57.0F (13.9C).  There has been no rainfall since last report, and none since Wednesday evening, for that matter.

The transformation of the overall weather pattern during the past 48 hours or so has been dramatic and comprehensive -- just as we were anticipating.  There has been uniform warming occurring throughout all layers of the atmosphere, and the warming aloft has been enough to put a major damper on the instability factor.  Although there has still been considerable development of clouds over the mountains during the PM hours, there have been no more than a couple of brief, isolated showers up there.

The upper-levels will continue to warm during the coming few days, but at the same time, we do have a low pressure circulation just now moving into central Pakistan which is going to slide just to our south over the weekend.  Computer models are showing a slightly better chance of some isolated to widely scattered thundershower development between this afternoon and Sunday evening -- but I still think we'll be seeing a good amount of sunshine, and our temperatures will remain close to seasonal averages.

That thundershower risk diminishes again on Monday and Tuesday, but there's a strange-looking tongue of moisture showing up on the models which will be creeping in from the southeast on Wednesday into Thursday.  That could also give us a better chance of some scattered thundershower action before drier air moves in again by Friday.  All in all -- the situation is vastly better than it was a week to ten days ago.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details.