the latest...

**High temps could be heading back toward 60ºF/16ºC during the coming few days. Follow low/high/precip data for this month on the DECEMBER STATS tab above.

Monday, December 31, 2012

next year almost here... (pm.31.dec.12)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 41.0F (5.0C)
Afternoon high temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
Rainfall: none

It's a bit hazy, otherwise our skies are clear post-sunset this evening, after our first 100% sunny day since the 4th of December.  That sunshine didn't help the thermometer, however, as my high temp on Tushita Road was slightly cooler than the last few days -- It felt milder to me though, thanks to the full sunshine and lighter winds.  Not a bad final day of 2012, all in all.

A very fast-moving jet stream pattern during the coming several days will deliver a couple of upper-level disturbances to north India -- one tomorrow (New Year's Day) and another on Friday.  Right now it appears that both of these weak systems will be devoid of moisture, and should only be able to produce some cloudiness and perhaps some fleeting mountain snow showers as they rapidly pass by.  This means that our dry weather of the past 15 days will continue into the first week of the new year, and possibly beyond.

Temperatures have been pretty close to the seasonal average since late last week, and are expected to remain in that category or even cool down a bit more by the coming weekend.  A pretty good outlook for early January, unless you are impatient for a big snowy winter storm...

HAPPY NEW YEAR to all locals and visitors alike!!

MONDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear early, with increasing clouds overnight.
low: 6C (43F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
a mix of clouds and some sun.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy... a bit breezy.
low: 6C (42F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY:
partly cloudy, to mostly cloudy at times.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  near normal temps for early january.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

Sunday, December 30, 2012

quiet end to 2012... (pm.30.dec.12)>

Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.5F (6.4C)
Afternoon high temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
Rainfall: none

There are quite a few clouds around this evening just after sunset, following a day of mixed sunshine, haze and cloudiness.  My high temperature at the top of McLeod Ganj was just a fraction of a degree cooler than yesterday... so we are STILL in the midst of the coldest weather of the last 2+ weeks.

The remnants of our recent storm system has been spinning around over central Kashmir during the past 12 hours, providing us with a chilly breeze and enough instability to lead to the development of occasional clouds here along the mountains.   Further downhill, yet another temperature inversion is setting up, causing widespread fog across Punjab today.

No major changes are expected during the coming week, although there will be a disturbance passing through on New Year's Day (Tuesday) and another on Friday.  Neither of these systems are expected to contain enough moisture to stir up anything more than perhaps some isolated snow showers high in the mountains, so our dry streak of the past couple of weeks should continue right into 2013.

Temperatures, though quite cold, are actually running slightly above normal for the tail-end of December, and look like they will dip only slightly by Friday.

SUNDAY NIGHT:
evening clouds gradually giving way to mostly clear skies.
low: 7C (44F)

MONDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  slightly milder.
high: 12C (54F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy... mild for the season.
low: 7C (45F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
a mix of clouds and some sun.
high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY:
sun and a few clouds.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY:
partly cloudy skies.
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY:
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.  breezy and turning cooler.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

Saturday, December 29, 2012

seasonably chilly... (pm.29.dec.12)>

Saturday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.3F (6.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 52.3F (11.3C)
Rainfall: trace

There are some patches of clouds hanging to the mountains just after sunset this evening, with some areas of haze and light fog further downhill.  But actually, we ended up with quite a lot of sunshine today -- after about 10:30am.  A chilly breeze stirring up this cold air mass kept our daytime temps at the lowest of the past two weeks, despite the sun; while rainfall has been confined to just a few sprinkles during the pre-dawn hours.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a storm system die as fast and decisively as this one has during the past 18 hours or so.  Believe it or not, there is still a rather strong circulation in the mid- and upper-atmosphere just west of the Pak/Kashmir border, but there has been so much dry air drawn into it that clouds quickly dissipated across most of northern India by noon today.  Of all the computer model output leading up to this storm system, that calling for ZERO rainfall ended up being the most accurate.

Looking ahead, we should be in for a pretty quiet and uneventful week, with just a couple of minor disturbances drifting through.  The main task will be to keep track of occasional cloudiness, along with the potential for winter fog development mainly downhill from McLeod.  Temperatures should be only slightly milder than normal as we enter the new year...

SATURDAY NIGHT:
evening clouds and haze giving way to mostly clear skies.
low: 6C (42F)

SUNDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear.
low: 6C (43F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and occasional clouds.
high: 12C (54F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
both clouds and some sun.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  somewhat cooler.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY:
partly cloudy and seasonably cool.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

lonely rain gauge... (am.29.dec.12)>

There are several breaks in our mid-level overcast just before sunrise this morning.  I've got a current temp of 44.8F (7.1C) after an overnight low of 43.3F (6.3C).  Other than a random sprinkle or two, there has been no rainfall.

Satellite pics show a dying upper-level circulation over northern Pakistan just west of the Kashmir border, with a greatly diminished area of cloudiness associated with it.  The counter-clockwise circulation will continue to bring us some periods of clouds and gusty winds at times, but it appears that our air mass is not ever going to moisten up enough to get any significant rain shower activity out of this system.  My humidity reading continues to hover around 40%, which is an indication of the pathetic amount of moisture in the air.  We still could get surprised by some shower development, but I am on the verge of completely giving up on it.

Temperatures will remain quite cool through the weekend, but it's going to "feel" much more pleasant if we can manage to get more than some fleeting glimpses of sunshine.


Friday, December 28, 2012

gloomy and cold... (pm.28.dec.12)>

Update @ 8:49pm...  Lots of wind up here at my place at the moment.  Temp is 46.6F (8.1C), with humidity still low at 46%.  From what I can see, there is lower visibility with some snow showers very close to Triund/2900m.

------------------------------------------
Friday's stats:

Low temp: 43.0F (6.1C) -- just after midnight
High temp: 52.7F (11.5C) -- around 11:00am
Rainfall: none

We have extensive cloudiness across the area this evening, and it's breezy at times.  Although we had some fleeting glimpses of sun (mainly this morning), the clouds have won the day, and the high temperature was the coldest I've recorded since the 15th of December, nearly two weeks ago.  Other than some snow showers up along the Dhauladars and perhaps a couple of random sprinkles further down slope, we've had no significant precipitation today.

So far, this rather dynamic storm system has been a big disappointment with regard to rain/snow production. That's not really too much of a surprise, considering the fact that it has always looked like it was going to have a hard time drawing much moisture into its circulation.  The storm center itself is now located over northern Pakistan, and will meander and wobble its way to the Pak/Kashmir border southwest of Srinagar by tomorrow morning, then into central Kashmir by late Sunday night.  There's a lot of cloudiness swirling in a counter-clockwise manner around the center, but only the higher mountains are catching any precipitation (in the form of snow) as of this evening.  But -- as long as this disturbance remains in our neighborhood, we stand a chance of seeing the development of some showers.  A period of thunder is even a possibility before all is said and done.

Right now it looks like we'll see a quiet transition from 2012 to 2013 early next week, with temperatures averaging out fairly close to normal, or just slightly above.  Full sunshine doesn't appear likely, but there are no ominous-looking storm systems waiting in the wings either.

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy with a chance of few rain showers developing.
low: 5C (41F)

SATURDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cool.  still a risk of a period or two of light rain showers.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy skies.  cold, with a couple of light showers possible.
low: 4C (39F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  chance of a passing shower or thundershower.
high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy and a bit milder.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
a mix of clouds and periods of sun.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

WEDNESDAY:
both sunshine and clouds.   a bit cooler.
low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

no drama yet... (am.28.dec.12)>

Update @ 2:12pm... It has been totally overcast for the last couple of hours, but precipitation remains confined to the highest elevations, where snow showers are occurring.  My current temp is 49.8F (9.9C), while humidity is still fairly low at 45%.

-------------------------------------------------------
It is a bit breezy, with mostly cloudy skies just before sunrise this morning.  My overnight low temperature has been 43.0F (6.1C), but it's currently 46.6F (8.1C).  As far as I've noticed, we've just had a few random sprinkles since last evening.

Our upper-level storm center is now located in extreme northwestern Pakistan, and is still expected to move slowly to just west of the Pak/Kashmir border by this evening and then stall out and remain there all the way through Sunday as it gradually weakens.  Obviously, moisture is very limited with this system so far, but I think there is still a good chance for some light rain shower activity to develop -- albeit quite slowly and gradually.  Better chances of precipitation (in the form of snow) are expected higher up in the mountains, and we'll just have to wait and see if our dry atmosphere can moisten up enough to get something measurable in rain gauges down here in McLeod and points below.

Circulation around this low pressure center, combined with a concentrated pool of cold air aloft, will keep things unstable right through Sunday -- so just be aware of the potential for sudden changes.  I'll update today if/when there are interesting developments.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

atmosphere in flux... (pm.27.dec.12)>

-Most recent updates posted at the top of the page-

*Update @ 8:28pm...  The winds have kicked up in the last few minutes, and I've had a few light sprinkles of rain here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center.  My temp has dropped to 46.2F (7.9C), and humidity is 62%.

---------------------------------------------
Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 56.3F (13.5C) -- around 1:45pm
Rainfall: none

We've had one of our more beautiful sunsets of recent weeks this evening, thanks to the variety of clouds gracing the skies.  Today there has been high cloudiness, sunshine, fog, mountain cumulus development, and all kinds of combinations of the above.  Temps have been fluctuating all day as well, depending on the appearances of sun.  It appears that that were some snow showers up on the Dhauladhars during the thickest period of cloudiness from late morning until just after the noon hour.

Counter-clockwise circulation around a very large storm system centered over extreme northern Afghanistan has been the cause of our frequently changing skies today.  The whole atmosphere is in flux as this system approaches, creating instability in different layers, as warmer and colder air battle for supremacy.  Thus far, precipitation has been light, and confined to the highest elevations, but we should see our chances for at least some light rain showers increase during the coming 24 hours or so.  I'm still amazed at the vastly different solutions that various computer models are coming up with... from ZERO rain, to about 1.5cm (0.60") according to one of the more reliable guidance sources.  As the center of the upper-level circulation moves into northern Pakistan tomorrow morning it is expected to become nearly stationary as it gradually weakens over the weekend.  That means that things will remain unsettled and unstable through Sunday, even if we don't end up getting much in the way of rain and snowfall.

Speaking of snowfall... please be prepared for rapidly deteriorating conditions in the mountains above town tomorrow (Fri) into Saturday.  It is no fun to get caught up there in the midst of cold rain, sleet and snow.  It looks unlikely that snow will occur in McLeod, but conditions in these mountains can change radically in a short period of time, so I'll try to keep you up-to-date with the latest developments...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  a light rain shower or two possible.
low: 7C (45F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy skies.  better chance of a few rain showers developing.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy.  good chance of some periods of light rain.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
clouds and a period or two of sun.  good chance of occasional rain showers.
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy skies.  risk of a passing shower or thundershower.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy... seasonable temps.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
a mix of clouds and some periods of sun.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

clouds taking over... (am.27.dec.12)>

-Most recent updates will be posted at the top of this page-

*Update @ 3:29pm... Lots of variability between sun and clouds thus far today, with the temperature moving up and down accordingly.  Currently the sun is shining, I have a temp of 53.4F (11.9C), and the humidity stands at 60%.  Satellite pics show more clouds moving in from the west-southwest by evening.

*Update @ 8:40am... Even without sun, the temp has jumped up to 53.2F (11.8C) already this morning.  A stiff breeze has kicked in during the past half hour.  Humidity is just 38% currently, so we're still desperately lacking the moisture necessary for any rain -- at least in the near future.

-----------------------------------------------------
We have a thick, high overcast early this morning -- with an overnight low temperature of 46.9F (8.3C) here in the upper part of town.  Humidity has been steady around 42-45% since last evening.

A large upper-level storm system is now moving into Afghanistan, and is expected to move into northern Pakistan by this time tomorrow morning.  It looks like it will nearly come to a stand-still, and remain there through the weekend as it slowly weakens.  Satellite pics this morning show extensive cloudiness from central Asia into the northwest part of India... but there could be a few breaks in the clouds here and there to allow some glimpses of sunshine later today.  If we don't get any sun, temps are going to rise only a few degrees today, despite the relatively mild air mass in place ahead of this storm system.

None of the computer models are forecasting very significant amounts of rain (generally below 1cm/0.40") for our immediate area, but there are some differences in timing between the different models... some targeting late today and Friday for the best chance of precipitation, and others delaying it until mid-day Friday into Saturday evening.  As I mentioned last evening, this is a very difficult system to get a handle on, so we'll have to watch it very carefully as it moves closer.

At this point, at least, it appears that the snow potential should remain higher up in the mountains than our storm of a couple of weeks ago.  Check back here for updates if there are any developments later today, otherwise I'll post a full forecast update this evening.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

something to watch... (pm.26.dec.12)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
Rainfall: none

Sunshine has gradually given way to increasing high clouds today, with a thin, broken layer of cloudiness sprawled across the sky just after sunset.  Although temperatures remain a bit above normal for the season, my afternoon high was the coolest (just barely) of the past 10 days.

For several days I've been giving the "heads up" on a new storm system expected to affect us.  The high clouds this afternoon are the first sign of a very large system now centered over Iran, which is expected to move into northern Pakistan by Friday morning -- and then stall out there for most of the coming weekend.  On upper-level charts, this systems looks really powerful, but so far, we're not seeing evidence of a great enough increase in moisture ahead of it, in order to get really excited about a significant rain/snow producer.  The latest run of the computer models shows a little more data to support a good round of rain and snow in our neighborhood -- especially on Friday and Saturday -- but other computer model guidance shows a much less robust scenario.  At any rate, expect a more unsettled situation here in the western Himalayan region during the coming several days, and keep close tabs on the latest developments if you have travel plans.

More unseasonably mild air will be drawn northward ahead of this approaching system, but once its center gets close to us and we start to get even some light precipitation, temperatures should fall substantially.  Quite a difficult forecast... but one that will be fun to watch and follow.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
dim moonlight through occasional high clouds.
low: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY:
both clouds and some periods of sun.  a couple of rain showers possible, especially during the PM.
high: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with a little better chance of some showers.
low: 8C (46F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler.  good chance of a few rain showers in the area.
high: 12C (53F)

SATURDAY:
clouds and a period or two of sun.  still a risk of a few showers around.  cooling trend...
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  quite chilly, with a chance of a period of showers or thundershowers.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy and cool.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

fog below... (pm.25.dec.12)>

Christmas Day stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
Rainfall: none

We have clear skies in McLeod shortly after sunset this Christmas evening, but it looks like a classic temperature inversion is in progress just downhill from us, with haze and light fog below about the 1500m/4900ft level.  There has been widespread fog across the plains of north India again today, thanks to a shallow layer of colder air trapped below warmer air aloft.  We've had none of that up here, with lots of sunshine, along with temps running a bit above normal once again.

It's fairly normal for the winter fog plague to begin during the last 10 days or so of December, and this year is proving thus far to comply.  The pattern in the upper atmosphere remains very quiet, with a weak ridge of high pressure in control.  However, there have been periodic surges of slightly colder air spilling in from the northwest, which quickly funnel through the valleys and down into the plains, creating the fog scenario down there.

There should be no major changes during the next 36-48 hours or so, but starting late on Thursday, a large low pressure system will begin to ease its way into northwest India from the west.  Although this system will have a large counter-clockwise circulation center associated with it -- although there will be a good amount of dynamic energy -- and although there will be a pool of very cold air in the upper-atmosphere at its center -- it remains to be seen whether there will be any appreciable moisture drawn into it, to serve as fuel for significant rain and snowfall.  Computer models remain consistent in forecasting only light amounts of precipitation from late Thursday into Sunday, but things could change, so stay tuned for updates.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
some patchy fog possible, otherwise mostly clear.
low: 8C (46F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
fair to partly cloudy.
low: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY:
clouds thickening up, but some sun as well.  chance of a couple of rain showers by late afternoon.
high: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy and a bit cooler.  a couple of rain showers possible.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy and cooler.  good chance of a shower or two in the area.
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY:
seasonably cool, with a mix of clouds and some peeks of sun.  good chance of a shower or thundershower.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

peaceful holiday... (am.25.dec.12)>

This Christmas morning is dawning with clear skies, along with temperatures still running a shade above average for this time of year.  My low temp here in the upper part of town has been 46.9F (8.1C).  'Tis the season for cooler air pooling further downhill in the valleys -- I have a report of 43F (6.1C) not far from Norbulingka.

Although our atmosphere has been shaken up a bit during the last couple of days, we're still dealing with relatively pleasant Christmas-time weather conditions.  Yesterday's (Mon) high temp of 57.0F (13.9C) here in upper McLeod is still warmer than we would expect, and with a good amount of sunshine both today and Wednesday, we should remain in that above normal category.  A generally quiet upper-level pattern and lack of deep moisture will rule out any rain and/or snowfall in our area as well, although fog development (especially below McLeod) is a possibility.

There will be a new weather system approaching by late Thursday that is worth keeping a close eye on.  Although none of the computer model data points to a very significant rain/snow maker at this point, this system will consist of very cold air aloft, and is expected to move very very slowly.  That means we could be dealing with an extended period of unsettled weather lasting all the way through the coming weekend.  If you have travel/outdoor plans, you'll want to stay on top of the latest developments...

Wishing you a Blessed and Merry Christmas!

CHRISTMAS DAY:
sunshine and perhaps a few clouds developing.  remaining unseasonably mild.
high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
a period of fog possible, otherwise mostly clear skies.
low: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy. 
high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY:
sun giving way to thickening clouds.  chance of a rain shower or two by late PM.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy skies.  a bit cooler, with a chance of a couple of showers.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy and cooler.  a couple of showers in the area.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)