Thursday, December 27, 2012

atmosphere in flux... (pm.27.dec.12)>

-Most recent updates posted at the top of the page-

*Update @ 8:28pm...  The winds have kicked up in the last few minutes, and I've had a few light sprinkles of rain here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center.  My temp has dropped to 46.2F (7.9C), and humidity is 62%.

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Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 56.3F (13.5C) -- around 1:45pm
Rainfall: none

We've had one of our more beautiful sunsets of recent weeks this evening, thanks to the variety of clouds gracing the skies.  Today there has been high cloudiness, sunshine, fog, mountain cumulus development, and all kinds of combinations of the above.  Temps have been fluctuating all day as well, depending on the appearances of sun.  It appears that that were some snow showers up on the Dhauladhars during the thickest period of cloudiness from late morning until just after the noon hour.

Counter-clockwise circulation around a very large storm system centered over extreme northern Afghanistan has been the cause of our frequently changing skies today.  The whole atmosphere is in flux as this system approaches, creating instability in different layers, as warmer and colder air battle for supremacy.  Thus far, precipitation has been light, and confined to the highest elevations, but we should see our chances for at least some light rain showers increase during the coming 24 hours or so.  I'm still amazed at the vastly different solutions that various computer models are coming up with... from ZERO rain, to about 1.5cm (0.60") according to one of the more reliable guidance sources.  As the center of the upper-level circulation moves into northern Pakistan tomorrow morning it is expected to become nearly stationary as it gradually weakens over the weekend.  That means that things will remain unsettled and unstable through Sunday, even if we don't end up getting much in the way of rain and snowfall.

Speaking of snowfall... please be prepared for rapidly deteriorating conditions in the mountains above town tomorrow (Fri) into Saturday.  It is no fun to get caught up there in the midst of cold rain, sleet and snow.  It looks unlikely that snow will occur in McLeod, but conditions in these mountains can change radically in a short period of time, so I'll try to keep you up-to-date with the latest developments...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  a light rain shower or two possible.
low: 7C (45F)

FRIDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy skies.  better chance of a few rain showers developing.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy.  good chance of some periods of light rain.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
clouds and a period or two of sun.  good chance of occasional rain showers.
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy skies.  risk of a passing shower or thundershower.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy... seasonable temps.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

NEW YEAR'S DAY 2013:
a mix of clouds and some periods of sun.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)