-Most recent updates will be posted at the top of this page-
Update @ 5:31pm... Very light rain falling here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center. Temp 42.4F (5.8C). The latest, updated forecast will be posted within the hour.
Update @ 3:54pm... It's eerily quiet. Only a few sprinkles of rain here in the past hour and a half, with some snow falling higher up on the mountains. I've got 43.2F (6.2C). Waiting for some new satellite pics to come in, but all available data says that the main event is still on the way.
Update @ 2:05pm... The first raindrops occurred at my place at 1:35pm, and I've had two reports that there is light rain in Dharamsala as well. So... we're off and running. My temp has dropped already to 42.6F (5.9C), and the outdoor humidity has jumped from 41% to 64% as the air moistens up. Now, our next concern will be whether or not the rain/snow line is going to flirt with McLeod, as precipitation intensity increases and temps continue to fall.
Update @ 1:23pm... Conditions deteriorating very quickly now in the hills above. Visibility is dropping to zero as the snowfall intensity increases up there. It won't be long until we start getting some rain drops here in town.
Update @ 12:45pm... Precipitation (mostly snow) has been developing further down the mountains during the past hour -- it looks like it's snowing all the way down to Triund now. This gradual moistening of the atmosphere will continue this afternoon which should lead to the appearance of some light rain here in McLeod eventually. My current temp is 48.4F (9.1C), but it will quickly drop to around 40F (4.4C) once the rain gets going.
Update @ 11:22am... A big batch of new computer model data is now coming out, based on early morning upper-atmospheric profiles. It is very consistent with earlier forecasts of heavy precipitation targeted pretty much right on top of us during the coming 24 hours. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken up, with the level of saturation dropping during the early to mid-afternoon from the current level of about 11,000-12,000ft (~3000m). It's probably a good idea to charge up laptops, iPads, cell phones, etc -- even hot water geysers -- in case we end up losing power later today or tonight.
Update @ 10:25am... Impressive circulation around this system is providing us with some very gusty winds during the past half hour or so. Satellite view shows a classic "comma-shaped" signature, with the center of the storm moving from northeast Afghanistan into northern Pakistan during the next couple of hours. Rain development for us still looks like it will hold off for a while longer.
Update @ 9:17am... Based on upper-air data coming in, it looks like it's going to take several hours for the atmosphere to become fully saturated. It's already starting up around 15,000ft, so snow may be developing now along the highest peaks of the Dhauladhars. Here in the immediate McLeod area, I think we'll stay dry into the early afternoon at least.
Update @ 8:25am... What a difference an hour makes. We've gone from mostly clear to mostly cloudy, as a layer of mid-level clouds has developed overhead.
----------------------
There are just a few clouds scattered around the area at sunrise this morning -- there's a big hole in the cloud cover right over northern Punjab and the western half of Himachal at the moment. Temperatures have held steady overnight in advance of our approaching storm system. I've recorded a low temp of 43.0F (6.1C), and currently it is 44.3F (6.9C).
If you need to travel, or simply to be out and about, this morning is your best opportunity. Satellite pics this morning are showing a very intense, very tightly wound circulation centered over the middle of Afghanistan, moving steadily eastward (There is satellite photo link on the right side of the page). As this system encounters the mountains today, rain and snow will develop across a wide area. This morning's computer model data is still projecting roughly 5cm (2") of precipitation to occur in a few spots from southern Kashmir across much of Himachal Pradesh. As I've been mentioning, with a 1:10 ratio of liquid rain:snow, that translates into the potential for 20" of snow for higher elevations that are cold enough for a 100% snow event.
Here in McLeod and vicinity, we're just going to have to play it hour-by-hour to see if our temperature profiles are cold enough for a change-over from rain to snow. It should be very interesting to watch what happens between this afternoon and about noon tomorrow (Friday).! I will attempt to post regular updates here today, so check back to keep track of developments...
Update @ 5:31pm... Very light rain falling here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center. Temp 42.4F (5.8C). The latest, updated forecast will be posted within the hour.
Update @ 3:54pm... It's eerily quiet. Only a few sprinkles of rain here in the past hour and a half, with some snow falling higher up on the mountains. I've got 43.2F (6.2C). Waiting for some new satellite pics to come in, but all available data says that the main event is still on the way.
Update @ 2:05pm... The first raindrops occurred at my place at 1:35pm, and I've had two reports that there is light rain in Dharamsala as well. So... we're off and running. My temp has dropped already to 42.6F (5.9C), and the outdoor humidity has jumped from 41% to 64% as the air moistens up. Now, our next concern will be whether or not the rain/snow line is going to flirt with McLeod, as precipitation intensity increases and temps continue to fall.
Update @ 1:23pm... Conditions deteriorating very quickly now in the hills above. Visibility is dropping to zero as the snowfall intensity increases up there. It won't be long until we start getting some rain drops here in town.
Update @ 12:45pm... Precipitation (mostly snow) has been developing further down the mountains during the past hour -- it looks like it's snowing all the way down to Triund now. This gradual moistening of the atmosphere will continue this afternoon which should lead to the appearance of some light rain here in McLeod eventually. My current temp is 48.4F (9.1C), but it will quickly drop to around 40F (4.4C) once the rain gets going.
Update @ 11:22am... A big batch of new computer model data is now coming out, based on early morning upper-atmospheric profiles. It is very consistent with earlier forecasts of heavy precipitation targeted pretty much right on top of us during the coming 24 hours. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken up, with the level of saturation dropping during the early to mid-afternoon from the current level of about 11,000-12,000ft (~3000m). It's probably a good idea to charge up laptops, iPads, cell phones, etc -- even hot water geysers -- in case we end up losing power later today or tonight.
Update @ 10:25am... Impressive circulation around this system is providing us with some very gusty winds during the past half hour or so. Satellite view shows a classic "comma-shaped" signature, with the center of the storm moving from northeast Afghanistan into northern Pakistan during the next couple of hours. Rain development for us still looks like it will hold off for a while longer.
Update @ 9:17am... Based on upper-air data coming in, it looks like it's going to take several hours for the atmosphere to become fully saturated. It's already starting up around 15,000ft, so snow may be developing now along the highest peaks of the Dhauladhars. Here in the immediate McLeod area, I think we'll stay dry into the early afternoon at least.
Update @ 8:25am... What a difference an hour makes. We've gone from mostly clear to mostly cloudy, as a layer of mid-level clouds has developed overhead.
----------------------
There are just a few clouds scattered around the area at sunrise this morning -- there's a big hole in the cloud cover right over northern Punjab and the western half of Himachal at the moment. Temperatures have held steady overnight in advance of our approaching storm system. I've recorded a low temp of 43.0F (6.1C), and currently it is 44.3F (6.9C).
If you need to travel, or simply to be out and about, this morning is your best opportunity. Satellite pics this morning are showing a very intense, very tightly wound circulation centered over the middle of Afghanistan, moving steadily eastward (There is satellite photo link on the right side of the page). As this system encounters the mountains today, rain and snow will develop across a wide area. This morning's computer model data is still projecting roughly 5cm (2") of precipitation to occur in a few spots from southern Kashmir across much of Himachal Pradesh. As I've been mentioning, with a 1:10 ratio of liquid rain:snow, that translates into the potential for 20" of snow for higher elevations that are cold enough for a 100% snow event.
Here in McLeod and vicinity, we're just going to have to play it hour-by-hour to see if our temperature profiles are cold enough for a change-over from rain to snow. It should be very interesting to watch what happens between this afternoon and about noon tomorrow (Friday).! I will attempt to post regular updates here today, so check back to keep track of developments...
