-Most recent updates posted at the top of this page-
Update @ 9:56pm... My rain gauge shows 0.20" (5mm). The wind is howling, and the power just went out again. Temp is still hovering near 40F (4.4C).
Update @ 9:02pm... Finally, some serious rain happening. I had 0.08" (2mm) in the rain gauge about a half hour ago, but it has been raining harder and harder, so will update that amount shortly. Temp now 39.6F (4.2C) -- humidity 87%.
Update @ 8:39pm... That power cut only lasted about 10 minutes, which is good, since I realized I only have about 1/5 of a candle in the house. Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing a bit, though it's still rather light. A flow of more moisture-laden air from the south in advance of our storm system, combined with colder air moving in aloft should fuel our rain/snow potential during the next 6-10 hours. Right now I have 40.1F (4.5C) -- 85% humidity.
Update @ 7:29pm... The wind has picked up again, but at least at my location, the rainfall remains very light. My current temp is back up to 41.2F (5.1C), and the humidity is 80%. Satellite pics still show a very well-defined low pressure system centered over northern Pakistan. We still have a long way to go, so that heavier rain/snow could still materialize. ...and there goes the power... :-(
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Thursday's stats:
Low temp: 39.7F (4.3C) -- 6:20pm
High temp: 49.1 (9.5C) -- 10:40am
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)
It's totally overcast just after sunset this evening, and steady, light rain is falling at my location in the upper part of town. We've seen a gradual and steady increase and thickening of the cloud cover throughout the day today, but so far, rainfall has been barely measurable. It appears that the precipitation has been more significant up on the mountains, though, with a healthy dusting of snow above about 9,000ft/2700m. Today's high temp occurred during the middle of the morning, while the low is happening right now. We've also had some strong and gusty winds at times, especially from the mid-morning into the early afternoon.
All day long we've been tracking a large storm system as it moves slowly toward northwest India. The center of the counter-clockwise circulation of this system is now entering extreme northwestern Pakistan, with most of the rain and snow occurring to the east of the center itself. A south-southwesterly flow ahead of it has been drawing more moisture northward today, and it has been by incremental steps that our air mass has been moving toward saturation. Every bit of data and all the computer model guidance I can get my hands on is still forecasting moderate to heavy rain/snow across our area between now and about noon tomorrow (Friday). In fact, there is a lot of consistency between the various computer models that liquid precipitation should be in the range of 3-5cm (1.2-2.0")... or more. This may seem crazy, considering how little rain/snow we've seen thus far, but the most dynamic part of this storm system is yet to come, so we'll see what happens overnight.
The other issue concerns the rain/snow line. Temps will be dipping into the 30s(F) tonight, and with below-freezing temperatures only a few hundred meters (at most) above us, there's a decent chance for rain mixing with or possibly even changing to snow here in McLeod at some point tonight into tomorrow morning. The best chances of snow will be in Dharamkot and above, with very little chance down toward the Library. But of course we'll have to see what happens when the heavier precipitation arrives!
By Friday afternoon this storm will be on its way out, but an unstable air mass and a couple of minor disturbances could affect us over the weekend, although temperatures should be milder.
Check back here for further updates on potential developments tonight...
Update @ 9:56pm... My rain gauge shows 0.20" (5mm). The wind is howling, and the power just went out again. Temp is still hovering near 40F (4.4C).
Update @ 9:02pm... Finally, some serious rain happening. I had 0.08" (2mm) in the rain gauge about a half hour ago, but it has been raining harder and harder, so will update that amount shortly. Temp now 39.6F (4.2C) -- humidity 87%.
Update @ 8:39pm... That power cut only lasted about 10 minutes, which is good, since I realized I only have about 1/5 of a candle in the house. Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing a bit, though it's still rather light. A flow of more moisture-laden air from the south in advance of our storm system, combined with colder air moving in aloft should fuel our rain/snow potential during the next 6-10 hours. Right now I have 40.1F (4.5C) -- 85% humidity.
Update @ 7:29pm... The wind has picked up again, but at least at my location, the rainfall remains very light. My current temp is back up to 41.2F (5.1C), and the humidity is 80%. Satellite pics still show a very well-defined low pressure system centered over northern Pakistan. We still have a long way to go, so that heavier rain/snow could still materialize. ...and there goes the power... :-(
---------------------------------------------
Thursday's stats:
Low temp: 39.7F (4.3C) -- 6:20pm
High temp: 49.1 (9.5C) -- 10:40am
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)
It's totally overcast just after sunset this evening, and steady, light rain is falling at my location in the upper part of town. We've seen a gradual and steady increase and thickening of the cloud cover throughout the day today, but so far, rainfall has been barely measurable. It appears that the precipitation has been more significant up on the mountains, though, with a healthy dusting of snow above about 9,000ft/2700m. Today's high temp occurred during the middle of the morning, while the low is happening right now. We've also had some strong and gusty winds at times, especially from the mid-morning into the early afternoon.
All day long we've been tracking a large storm system as it moves slowly toward northwest India. The center of the counter-clockwise circulation of this system is now entering extreme northwestern Pakistan, with most of the rain and snow occurring to the east of the center itself. A south-southwesterly flow ahead of it has been drawing more moisture northward today, and it has been by incremental steps that our air mass has been moving toward saturation. Every bit of data and all the computer model guidance I can get my hands on is still forecasting moderate to heavy rain/snow across our area between now and about noon tomorrow (Friday). In fact, there is a lot of consistency between the various computer models that liquid precipitation should be in the range of 3-5cm (1.2-2.0")... or more. This may seem crazy, considering how little rain/snow we've seen thus far, but the most dynamic part of this storm system is yet to come, so we'll see what happens overnight.
The other issue concerns the rain/snow line. Temps will be dipping into the 30s(F) tonight, and with below-freezing temperatures only a few hundred meters (at most) above us, there's a decent chance for rain mixing with or possibly even changing to snow here in McLeod at some point tonight into tomorrow morning. The best chances of snow will be in Dharamkot and above, with very little chance down toward the Library. But of course we'll have to see what happens when the heavier precipitation arrives!
By Friday afternoon this storm will be on its way out, but an unstable air mass and a couple of minor disturbances could affect us over the weekend, although temperatures should be milder.
Check back here for further updates on potential developments tonight...
THURSDAY NIGHT:
cloudy, windy and cold... with increasing rain potential. rain could mix with or even change to snow.
low: 2C (35F)
FRIDAY:
cold, with rain and/or snow most likely in the morning. some clearing possible during the PM.
high: 7C (45F)
FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower.
low: 3C (37F)
SATURDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun. a couple of rain showers possible.
high: 9C (48F)
SUNDAY:
both clouds and some sun at times. still a risk of a shower or two in the area.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)
MONDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy. milder.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)
TUESDAY:
partly cloudy... seasonable temperatures.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)
