the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Monday, October 31, 2016

october fades out... (pm.31.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 63.6F (17.6C)
Rainfall: none

We've reached the point of almost total darkness at 6:20pm, with just seven weeks until the winter solstice arrives.  It's quite hazy again this evening, especially downhill from us, but otherwise our sky is cloudless.  Sunshine and a light haze were the features of the day here in McLeod itself, but there was some pretty impressive cumulus development over the immediate Dhauladhar range, with some of it towering quite high into the atmosphere during the mid-afternoon.  Temps at my location in the upper part of town were actually a bit higher than yesterday, due mainly to the greater proportion of sun.  Humidity was fairly steady between 45 and 49%.

Upper-level disturbances zipping by from the west-northwest this time of year usually don't stir up much drama, and we are in the middle of a series of those right now, which will continue through tomorrow.  The towering cumulus over the mountains this afternoon is an indication of more vertical "lift" going on, but with only meagre moisture availability, it's really hard to trigger anything more than the most isolated shower activity -- and that, only in the highest elevations.  So, the quiet weather of the last three weeks (almost) should continue on, with combinations of sunshine, haze, and a period or two of cirrus clouds and mountain cumulus along the way.

Temperatures may actually rebound just a bit over the course of the next two or three days before the next surge of cooler air comes in on Friday into Saturday.  With that, there could also be another slight chance of some random showers somewhere in the vicinity at the start of the weekend.

The arrival of November is only hours away... check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details, above.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

another coolest of the season... (pm.30.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
High temp: 62.0F (16.7C)
Rainfall: none

There's an increasing amount of noise out there this evening, as the Diwali fireworks crank up, but as far as the weather is concerned, it is calm and quiet.  We did have a lot of haze to deal with today, and also a surprisingly large amount of high cirrus clouds drifting by, but there was still a fair amount of sunshine, especially during most of the morning.  Due to those high clouds, temps were a bit cooler than expected -- logging yet another 'coolest of the season' in my record books.  Humidity averaged right around 45%.

Although we've had a significant amount of cooling here in the surface layers of the atmosphere the last three days or so, temps higher up are actually warming a bit.  That's a recipe for thin, high cloud development, and also for the appearance of an inversion layer which traps dust and pollution in the lower levels.  Additionally, there is a series of weak upper-level circulations moving into Himalayan north India, which will attempt to mix things up just a bit during the coming 48 hours or so.  The risk of any rainfall remains very small, due to an absence of moisture, but still, there could be a random, brief, light shower somewhere around the area (especially higher uphill) either tomorrow (Mon) or Tuesday.

We're now on 19 days in a row without one drop of rain, and if the extended range models are on top of things, the streak could continue for a lot longer.  There is another disturbance slated for Friday evening into Saturday, but again, limited moisture may preclude anything more than the most isolated shower activity.

If you are celebrating, enjoy the last hours of Diwali 2016... and check the forecast specs on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

peaceful DIWALI... (pm.29.oct.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
High temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
Rainfall: none

The cooling trend today was a little more pronounced than expected -- but in reality, just about 1ºF cooler than the forecast for both low and high temps.  But even with this fairly steady cooling off period the last ten days or so, we're still running slightly above normal for the tail-end of October.  Hazy sunshine was the dominant feature of our weather today, with some scattered cloudiness here on the front slopes of the mountains from just before noon until around 4:30pm or so.  Humidity moved very little -- hovering in the range of 42-46% for most of the day.

Models are indicating a minor amount of instability ahead -- especially from Monday into Tuesday -- as a couple of weak ripples in the upper-atmosphere sweep across Himalayan north India.  The same story is in effect, however, with very little moisture or thermodynamic energy available to stir up anything more than the most isolated and brief shower activity anywhere near us.  And further into the future, it looks like there will be another shot of instability next weekend, which could give us a slightly better chance of a couple of random/fleeting showers somewhere around the area.

Otherwise, expect these sunny mornings and sun-with-mountain-cloud afternoons to keep on keepin' on, as temperatures remain near to slightly above normal for the October to November transition period.


Friday, October 28, 2016

the cooling trend... (pm.28.oct.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
High temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
Rainfall: none

The clouds which were scattered around us this afternoon are totally gone as darkness settles in this evening, but it is really hazy at the moment.  Once again we started off the day with bright and glorious autumn sunshine, with those blue skies lasting until after 1:00pm.  Then, there was the normal PM cloud development along the mountains, which was a bit more significant today than yesterday.  Humidity was also a little higher -- averaging around 42% -- but all in all, it has been another fantastic late October day.

My high temp in the upper part of town was about 4ºF (2ºC) cooler today than it was last Friday, and that tells the story of what's been happening during the last week.  Although we've had a large majority of sunshine on a daily basis, our air mass is very slowly and gradually cooling off.  It's been happening by fractions of degrees every day, but you can see that over a week's time, the cooling has been worthy of note.

Small ripples of energy in the upper-level flow are riding along from the west-northwest, but other than that, the weather pattern is changing very little.  There should be varying degrees of weak to moderate cloud development along the Dhauladhars during the PM hours each day, but the chance of rain will remain very small, as temps continue their incremental slippage...

Follow the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located up at the top of the page.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

no news is good news... (pm.27.oct.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
Rainfall: none

Another gorgeous late October evening is in full swing, with totally clear skies, low humidity, and temperatures cool, though pleasantly so for this time of year.  It was a day of full sunshine, with only minor development of scattered cumulus clouds over and along the mountains for a few hours during the afternoon.  Average humidity today at my location in the upper part of town was among the lowest of the entire season -- around 38%.

I'm still faithfully watching all the weather charts both morning and evening, but I have to say, there are only the most tiny and insignificant changes and fluctuations in the overall weather pattern showing up over the course of the next ten days or so.  The west-northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere that has been dominant the last couple of weeks or more will remain in place, and the moisture which was long ago swept very far south and east of us shows no signs of returning at all.  That means this extended dry and stable weather pattern is not going anywhere.

Since the 5th or 6th of the month we've seen a general downward trend in temperatures, and that should also continue.  We're only talking about an incremental decrease of fractions of degrees day by day, but it adds up, and of course we can all feel the cooler and crisper evenings, nights and early mornings that are upon us.

The forecast details are very repetitive, but you can find the specs on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

rainless streak goes on... (pm.26.oct.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
Rainfall: none

Random cloudiness hung along the mountains a bit longer than usual this evening, but now, it's mostly clear as the darkness of night settles in.  Full morning sun gave way to partly cloudy skies in the vicinity of the Dhauladhars once again today, as has been the case for many days in a row now.  Humidity averaged right around 40%, which is also what we've gotten used to since late last week.  Temperatures today were just slightly warmer than yesterday, but still very close to the coolest of the month thus far.

With more than two weeks without a single drop of rain, we now have to go all the way back to JANUARY to find a longer streak of totally dry weather.  This year the normal stretch of dry days in April and May never really took hold for longer than a week or ten days, so it's definitely been a long time since we've had so many rainless days lined up in a row.

The question is... will it continue?  And at least as of right this moment, it certainly looks like it will.  There will be some minor fluctuations in the upper-level flow which has been coming in from the west-northwest, as we close out October and start the new month, but there is no evidence at all of a return of any kind of significant moisture.  I guess it's not impossible that we could have a brief, surprise shower one afternoon, but the chance of any kind of significant precipitation -- even higher up in the mountains -- seems to be very small.

Check tabs above for more local weather info, to put it all into perspective.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

two weeks - no rain... (pm.25.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
High temp: 66.5F (19.2C)
Rainfall: none

Our stretch of fine October weather continues to lengthen, as we've now hit the two week mark without a drop of rain.  Cloudiness has been limited for many days in a row as well, with just varying degrees of feeble to moderate cumulus development right along the mountains for a few hours during the afternoon.  And the all-important number -- the humidity -- has now settled into a daily average range very close to 40%.

It looks like we have nothing to get all that concerned about during these final several days of the month, as the west-northwesterly flow aloft continues to keep a dry and relatively stable air mass in place here across Himalayan north India.  As I've mentioned, there will be the odd weak disturbance passing overhead in the rapid upper-atmospheric flow, but without significant moisture availability, the shower potential should remain close to zero on any given day.

The incremental cooling trend that is totally normal and expected this time of year will keep on -- as the days get shorter and the nights get longer, and the sun's angle decreases.  But, compared to historical normals, we will probably remain slightly on the plus side as we transition into November.

Lots of other info can be found on tabs above, and in the archives on the right-hand column of the page.

Monday, October 24, 2016

friendly autumn conditions... (pm.24.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
High temp: 67.3F (19.6C)
Rainfall: none

There's a little bit of haze in the air, otherwise we have clear skies as dusk transitions to darkness this evening.  The cloud build-up along the Dhauladhars made me a little nervous early this afternoon, as it almost looked like there could be some shower development not far uphill for an hour or two.  But those clouds began dissipating by around 3:00pm or so, and it was totally clear again by the time the sun hit the western horizon.  Other than that little interruption, we had another day featuring plenty of autumn sunshine, with humidity hovering a few points either side of 40%.

A fairly impressive amount of energy is rushing by in the upper-level flow right now, as the jet stream dips further southward than it has so far this season.  With colder air aloft and all that dynamic energy, we could be getting some shower and thundershower activity around here -- but a very limited moisture supply is keeping that from happening.  In fact, except for the very lowest levels of the atmosphere, this air mass is bone-dry, as it normally is from mid-October into at least mid-December.  It should stay that way, pretty much as far as the eye can see, so our precipitation potential will remain very small.

It's been interesting this month to watch the thermometer, as it so slowly and gradually dips lower and lower day by day.  It's obviously become quite a bit cooler during the evenings into the very early morning hours, and even with the sunshine, daytime temps are slipping incrementally as the month progresses.  But still, it is very mild and comfortable, compared to what we'll have to deal with by Christmastime through January into mid-February...

Lots of other information can be found on tabs above, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

the best of the best... (pm.23.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 68.1F (20.1C)
Rainfall: none

Gorgeous.  Perfection.  Considering all the weather variables we experience around here over the course of a year, today has been about as bright and dry and comfortable as it gets.  Other than just a few little puffs of cumulus that tried hard to develop along the immediate Dhauladhar peaks after about 1:00pm, we had full sunshine throughout the day.  Humidity averaged right around 38-40%.

There's still nothing at all happening that would cause us to be concerned about a turn to any kind of inclement weather -- as the upper-level flow from the west-northwest continues to funnel in dry and stable air from central Asia.  A few very weak circulations aloft will drift by tomorrow into Tuesday, and again next weekend, but with moisture very very low, it's going to be hard to see much in the way of shower development.

The temperature trend the last ten days or so has been ever-so-slowly downward, and it looks like that should continue.  We're not talking about any kind of dramatic plunge in temps, but day-by-day, it's getting incrementally cooler.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above has all the forecast details.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

dry season groove... (pm.22.oct.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
High temp: 68.7F (20.4C)
Rainfall: none

The average humidity level today has been the lowest since way back on the 25th-26th of May, and cloud development during the PM hours was the most feeble since before the start of the monsoon season about four months ago.  Yes, it has been a glorious October day, with tons of sunshine, and temperature which remain a bit warmer than normal for this time of year.  Actually, today's high temp was the coolest I've recorded this month, but we're still above the norm.

The humidity was as low as 28% at my location in the upper part of town this morning, but rebounded to about 44% late this afternoon.  Those kinds of numbers have a way of erasing the memory of the 80-100% humidity readings we were dealing with day after day after day after day until just a couple of weeks ago.

Our overall weather pattern will remain fairly typical for this time of year, in terms of the lack of moisture and the predominance of sunshine.  And even our above-normal temps so far this month should continue to trend lower, and closer to the normal range over the course of the next several days.  From this vantage point, the only risk of some kind of random/fleeting shower activity seems to be confined to Tuesday, and again the following Sunday.  This autumn, the dry season is definitely living up to expectations...

Check tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Friday, October 21, 2016

quiet weekend ahead... (pm.21.oct.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.2F (14.0C)
High temp: 69.1F (20.6C)
Rainfall: none

At dusk, it is 100% clear, here at the end of a very fine mid-October day.  Sunshine has been abundant, in spite of the cloud development over the mountains which got going around the noon hour.  Those clouds dissipated quite early, with a return to mostly clear skies in all directions right around sunset.  My low temp this morning was the coolest of the month, by just 0.2ºF, with the high temp very close to where it was yesterday.  The humidity didn't fluctuate much at all today -- remaining in the 44-49% range.

For the last several days we've had a slight chance of a shower or thundershower in the forecast for today -- as an upper-level disturbance zipped across the western Himalayas.  There could have been some kind of isolated activity in the very highest elevations, but there was no evidence of rain here, and that makes 10 DAYS IN A ROW without a drop.  Since our huge dumping of tropical rains back on the 1st and 2nd of the month, I've only recorded 0.12" (3mm), so it has rapidly turned into a very dry stretch of weather we're dealing with.

A typically fast-moving west-northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere will prevail from central Asia into the western and central Himalayan region during the coming several days.  Combined with an air mass that is devoid of significant moisture, that spells an inactive, dry and pleasantly cool pattern for us.  Models are showing the slightest hints of some shower potential on Tuesday as a little wiggle of energy passes through, but I don't expect it to amount to much, if anything at all.

You can find all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

only minor issues... (pm.20.oct.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 69.0F (20.6C)
Rainfall: none

This morning's low again tied the low temp for this autumn sesason, while the afternoon high temp was the coolest for the month of October -- so that very slow and gradual downward slide continues.  In spite of the slightly cooler temperatures, we actually had a greater proportion of sunshine today than on just about any other day of the month, and average humidity was quite low -- at 47%.

We are watching some fairly potent upper-level energy racing across the western Himalayas this evening, in association with a circulation containing the coldest air of the new season way up in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  Satellite pics this evening are showing quite a bit of cloudiness to our northwest, with even some scattered shower/thundershower activity from northern Pakistan into extreme northern Kashmir.  Models continue to keep that shower/thunder development well to our north through tomorrow, but it's not a bad idea to keep the slight chance of some kind of shower action in our forecast into tomorrow (Fri) afternoon.

As we've been discussing for many days now, the very slow and gradual and incremental drop in temperatures should continue -- basically all the way through the final 10-11 days of the month.  Evidence of any significant storm systems continues to be absent, even as we cross into November.

Check out tabs above for forecast and other info...

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

a dry regime... (pm.19.oct.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 69.6F (20.9C)
Rainfall: none

This morning's low temp equalled the coolest of the month, while the afternoon high was one of the coolest I've recorded this autumn season.  We're still running a couple of degrees above the norm, but the trend has been generally, though slowly, downward the last few days.  This evening there are quite a few clouds lingering along the front slopes of the mountains, but it is fair and hazy to the south and southwest -- after yet another day of bright morning sunshine yielding to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon.

It's the dry season in Himachal Pradesh, and the ground truth attests to that.  We've now had eight days in a row without a drop of rain, and it's looking like there may be plenty more rainless days to come.  We've been talking about the potential for at least a random shower on Friday, but recent model runs have been almost wiping out that potential, due to very little moisture availability, and the majority of the upper-level dynamic energy remaining to our north.  Still, the west-northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen during the coming several days, with cooler and cooler air arriving in the higher levels of the atmosphere -- which could create some isolated pockets of instability tomorrow through Friday.  At least it's something to watch during otherwise boring weather times.

I don't think we'll see a dramatic plunge in temperatures during the coming week, but our daily average temps should continue to trend lower, by fractions of degrees, as the days get shorter and central Asian air slowly progresses southward.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above, with other info and stats available on other tabs as well.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

temperatures slipping... (pm.18.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 69.5F (20.8C)
Rainfall: none

It's very hazy late this evening as dusk leaves us, with only a few lingering, dissipating clouds along the mountain peaks.  As per the recent formula, we had pretty much full sunshine throughout the morning, with cloud development along the mountain slopes starting around noon -- leaving us with partly cloudy skies throughout the afternoon hours.  Humidity dipped as low as 37% around 9:00am at my recording location, but was back up to 55-56% by mid-afternoon.

The most autumn-like central Asian air mass of the season is starting to seep into Himalayan north India, as the upper-level flow strengthens from the west-northwest.  Temperatures aloft -- mainly above 12,000ft (3700m) -- will be cooling considerably during the coming 48-72 hours or so, and we should see slighter cooler temps here at our elevation as well during the coming few days.  Models are showing a wave of moderate instability passing well to our north between tomorrow (Wed) afternoon and Friday evening, but as of now, there's only some very minor precipitation development showing up on the charts here in our immediate area on Friday.  In that case, we'll keep the risk of a passing shower or thundershower in the forecast for Friday, with still a few days to keep an eye on how things evolve.

Quiet, seasonably cool and dry late October weather is expected again thereafter, with no other disturbances expected to affect us until perhaps the last day or two of the month.

All the forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located along the top of the page.

Monday, October 17, 2016

six days without a drop... (pm.17.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: none

Today was the sixth day in a row without even ONE DROP of rain -- and believe it or not, that's the first time we've had such a dry streak since the end of April into early May.  Otherwise, sunshine was firmly in control on this Monday, with the build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon less pronounced than it was yesterday.  Average humidity was again very close to 50%.

There are some changes in the overall pattern expected to occur this week, but it remains to be seen how much actual and tangible change we'll notice.  Cooler and cooler air is showing up on the charts way up in the levels of the atmosphere above about 15,000ft (4500m) -- with the brunt of that cooling expected to occur between tomorrow (Tues) night and Friday mid-day.  If there was much moisture in this air mass, then we would expect a good amount of shower and thunderstorm development to occur -- especially by Thursday evening.  However, that is not the case.  Our air mass is not bone dry, but the moisture it does contain is limited to the lower levels, and even there, it's not enough to cause concern.  What we will have to watch out for is some isolated or widely scattered shower/thunder development perhaps on Friday, with rapid stabilization sweeping in again by Saturday.

Right now it looks like temps here at our general elevation will be trending lower toward the end of the week, but considering the fact that we remain a few degrees above normal for mid-October, whatever happens won't be much to get all that excited about.  Of course that could change, so stay tuned...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK contains the forecast details, with other info also available on tabs above.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

seasonal expectations... (pm.16.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: none

These weather discussions are already becoming repetitive and a little boring, as we've seen very few changes in the last five days or so.  Today was pretty much a repeat of the same routine we've seen recently -- full sunshine until the late morning when a few cumulus clouds start to form in the immediate vicinity of the mountains, a rapid increase in clouds during the noon to 2:00pm period, partly cloudy for the rest of the afternoon, and then clearing just before sunset.  Humidity today averaged very close to 50% at my spot on Tushita Road in the upper part of town.

Normally, this is the time when we start to lapse into the most quiet and uneventful weather scenario of the entire year around here... and that's exactly what seems to be happening.  Although there will be some fluctuations in the upper-level pattern during this latter half of the month, there are no real storm systems in sight, and more importantly, no influx of significant moisture that would lend itself to any appreciable precipitation.

Though we've averaged a few degrees above normal in the temperature department this month so far, it looks like we could be seeing a gradual cooling trend over the course of the next 10-15 days or so.  It's probable that this year's 70ºF+ (21ºC+) temps will become a thing of the past quite soon...

More than six years of weather archives are available on the right-hand column of the page, with more info on tabs above.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

quite settled... (pm.15.oct.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 70.8F (21.6C)
Rainfall: none

We've definitely settled into a consistent pattern the last few days, have we not?  It's clear again this evening, though with some light haze in the air, after a partly cloudy afternoon which followed a brilliantly sunny morning.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town was almost identical to what I recorded yesterday, ranging from a low around 38% during the mid-morning, to a high of 57% late this afternoon.

I was expecting a slight warm-up today, but with the days getting shorter and shorter as the angle of the sun decreases, it seems to be harder to get our air mass to warm up, even with the large percentage of sunshine.  Still, nothing to complain about, as our temps remain above normal for the season.  The weather pattern is expected to stay just as it is for another few days, with a relatively slow westerly flow in the upper-atmosphere, and very limited moisture throughout all layers of the air mass sprawled across northern India.

Winds aloft will increase toward the end of the coming week, with some pockets of cooler air setting their sights on us in the seven to ten day range.  But moisture will remain hard to find, so at least as of now, models are not showing even the slightest hints of precipitation in our area -- all the way until the very end of the month.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for the (rather dull) forecast details...

Friday, October 14, 2016

fall's finest... (pm.14.oct.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: none

We've got a nearly-full moon on the rise in the east this evening, and apart from some very light haze, the sky is clear.  The recent improving trend continued today, with more and more sunshine and less and less cloudiness during the mid-day into the afternoon hours.  In fact, cumulus development along the mountain slopes today was the most weak and feeble of this post-monsoon period thus far, barely eclipsing the sun at all.  I recorded a humidity range of 38% (mid-morning) to 54% (mid-afternoon), which gives us one of the lowest daily averages since way back in May.

It's been quite a dramatic change of seasons we've gone through in the last two weeks.  The last dregs of the monsoon were clinging to us through the first several days of the month, but we've now obviously broken free, and if the models are telling the truth, it looks like we've got a very long stretch of quiet weather ahead of us.  We'll actually see some slight warming over the weekend, keeping us on the plus-side of normal for mid-October, but there are some indications of a downward trend in temperatures by the end of next week, though it shouldn't be very extreme at all.

Precipitation chances look to be somewhere between slim and none -- though of course our mountain micro-climate mysteries can still provide a spoiler this time of the year.  Just keep that in the back of your mind if you have activities planned up in the higher elevations.

Other info is available on tabs at the top of the page, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

accepted with pleasure... (pm.13.oct.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 70.6F (21.4C)
Rainfall: none

Apart from the moderate build-up of cumulus clouds along the mountains this afternoon, it has been a glorious day.  We're finally (maybe) getting into the October groove that we've been awaiting for so long -- with humidity now into the comfort zone, pleasant temperatures, and a majority of sunshine.  It has been quite hazy during the evenings lately, but tonight it seems a little less so.  The very first couple of puffs of clouds didn't appear until after 11:00am, and even then, it remained at least partly sunny throughout the remainder of the day.  Humidity ranged from 44% to about 57%.

The weather charts and model data are showing a quite typical mid-October pattern for us during the coming several days -- though it should remain a bit warmer than normal for this time of year.  A west-northwesterly flow in the upper layers of the atmosphere will keep the pulses of drier air sweeping across Himalayan north India, with no real chance of a return of deeper tropical moisture.  I'd like to say precipitation chances are ZERO, but it's difficult to say that with absolute certainty, since we can get a rogue, isolated thundershower popping up out of nowhere on some random afternoon.

Typically, the middle of October into the middle of December is the driest time of the year for us, and extended range models do indeed show very little happening all the way until the end of this month.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has all the forecast details up on a tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

sun - clouds - haze... (pm.12.oct.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: none

It's really hazy out there this evening after sunset, but almost all of the cloudiness that built up during the afternoon has fizzled.  Maybe there were some sprinkles of rain or a brief shower somewhere around the area today, but I never saw a raindrop, nor did I hear any thunder.  Otherwise, it's been kind of a repeat of the last couple of days, with lots of sunshine in the morning giving way to cloud development during the mid-day hours, and then clearing skies with the approach of sunset.  I recorded an average humidity reading today of about 60%, which is higher than it's been since Sunday.  Another stat of note: both the high and low temp were October's coolest thus far.

Obviously our air mass has become a little more stable today, since that recent flare-up of weak thundershowers during the mid-afternoon was erased.  The disparity between surface warming and upper-level temperature profiles should continue to diminish during the coming several days, and that's why we may be over the hump with regard to worrying about that PM convective development.  BUT -- let's see.  The overall weather pattern is looking extremely uneventful and benign for the rest of the month, according to all the model data.

I'm disappointed that our humidity levels haven't fallen further -- apart from that dip down to about 35% on Monday -- but even if we remain generally in the 45-65% range, that's so much more tolerable than what we've recently come out of.  Temperature-wise, we're running just slightly warmer than normal for the middle of October, with no really major fluctuations expected in the near future.

Get a look at other info, including MONSOON 2016 and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs at the top of the page.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

questionable afternoons... (pm.11.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 70.8F (21.6C)
Rainfall: 0.07" (2mm)

Nearly all of the afternoon cloudiness has disappeared this evening as things stabilize with the setting sun -- but again we had to contend with some weak thundershower development along the mountain slopes today.  They barely showed up on satellite pics, but between about 3:00 and 4:00pm there was some thunder and scattered light showers around the area, with the sun shining simultaneously during most of it.  Before that, we had glorious clear and sunny skies throughout the entire morning, with cloud development not really getting going until nearly 1:00pm.  Humidity ranged from 40 to 60% at my location on Tushita Road.

Due to some pockets of much cooler air aloft in the wake of the recent batch of upper-level disturbance which tracked across north India, we're dealing with a bit more afternoon instability issues than expected.  That colder air in the higher levels causes the warmer mid-day air mass to rise and condense -- and thus, the isolated (mostly brief) thundershowers along the mountain slopes.  All of the data continues to point to gradual stabilization, as the air mass aloft warms a few degrees, but of course we all know that convective development along the Dhauladhars is something we just have to keep an eye on day-by-day and hour-by-hour.

Other than that, the weather pattern is a quiet one, and should stay that way for the next couple of weeks.  Extended range data remains absolutely uneventful for us.  As we've been talking about, perhaps the most interesting thing to watch will be our daily humidity readings, as they trend downward over the long run.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Monday, October 10, 2016

lowest humidity in many months... (pm.10.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 71.2F (21.8C)
Rainfall: 0.04" (1mm)

It is a classically clear and calm and peaceful October evening, as the colors start to fade in the western sky.  Humidity at my location in the upper part of town dipped all the way down to 35% during the mid-morning, which is something that hasn't happened in more than four months.  It did rebound to around 55% with the thundershower development during the afternoon, but still -- that's a far cry from what we were dealing with this time last week.  Bright sunshine gave way to partly cloudy skies by the late morning, as we were anticipating, and there were those rumbles of thunder and brief light showers between about 1:00pm and 4:15pm, but then things cleared out quickly very early this evening.

The series of upper-level disturbances and pockets of colder air aloft that began to affect north India yesterday finally did succeed in stirring up a few feeble thundershowers along the mountain slopes this afternoon.  It's a typical case of early autumn instability, thanks to the relatively colder air seeping in in the higher levels of the atmosphere, but models are showing gradual stabilization during the coming 24-36 hours, so the risk of those PM showers should diminish.

The bigger news is that the driest air (by far) of this post-monsoon season is now being ushered into our area from the west-northwest.  Humidity readings have already plummeted, and it will be interesting to see how low they can go during the remainder of the week.  Extended range data is devoid of action -- all the way until perhaps the final few days of the month.  Generally pleasant and peaceful weather is what October along the Dhauladhars is famous for...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, along with plenty of other info, can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

more favorable signs... (pm.09.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: none

Our skies have cleared out rapidly this evening, and now it's almost totally clear at dusk.  It's been a pretty fantastic early October Sunday, with mostly sunny skies early this morning giving way to just partly cloudy conditions during the mid-day into the afternoon hours.  Humidity fluctuated narrowly between about 50 and 60% throughout the day, and there was never any shower development in the McLeod area.  That is not the case further to our north -- satellite pics have shown scattered showers and thundershowers over much of Jammu & Kashmir, and even into some of the highest elevations of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

That shower/thunder action is in association with the upper-level disturbances we've been talking about recently, that are dropping into Himalayan north India from the northwest.  Moisture availability continues to decrease, but with much cooler pockets of air aloft, there has been that scattered thundershower development further north of us.  We could still theoretically get in on some of that action overnight through Monday, before the upper-level energy departs to our east and southeast.

Already we are getting hints of the drier/crisper air mass on the way, and it's still looking like we are setting up for some genuine post-monsoon autumn weather during this coming week.  Actually, extended range models are showing very quiet, mild and dry conditions for us all the way until at least the 25th of the month.  That's very far away to be very confident about it, but the point is, there's no ominous weather showing up on the charts for a long time.

More info is available on tabs at the top of the page.

Saturday, October 8, 2016

a shifting pattern... (pm.08.oct.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
High temp: 73.4F (23.0C)
Rainfall: none

We've had another rainless day, and also the high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the warmest I've recorded this month.  Full sunshine gave way to the first patchy cloud development around 10:00am, however, and it was a back-and-forth dance between clouds and sun for the remainder of the day.  The humidity readings were almost identical to yesterday's -- ranging from about 58% this morning, to just above 70% during the mid- and late afternoon hours.

A couple of low-pressure circulations in the upper-atmosphere are set to drop in from the northwest late tonight through Sunday and into Monday, which will deliver some cooler temps aloft which could create some instability for a couple of days.  All of the model data seems to have backed off significantly on the shower and thundershower potential, but there are still indications that we could see at least one period of development between late tonight and Monday afternoon -- so don't be surprised if we have to deal with a round of wet and stormy weather sometime during the coming 48 hours or so.

In the wake of that weather system, the driest and most stable air mass in many months will be sweeping across the western Himalayan region into central India.  I still think we'll be seeing humidity levels drop down to 40%... or lower... by Tuesday or Wednesday, with a good amount of sunshine and only very slight chances of an afternoon shower.  There should be a pleasant sense of autumn in the air, which is what we would expect as we approach the middle of October.

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

Friday, October 7, 2016

transitions underway... (pm.07.oct.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 71.9F (22.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's quite hazy this evening as the light fades in the western sky, but almost all of the cloudiness has dissipated.  We started out with full sunshine again this morning, but as expected, there was cloud development as the noon hour approached, with variable cloudiness throughout the afternoon hours.  Humidity was actually slightly higher today than yesterday -- in the range of 58 to 72% -- but it seems like when all was said and done, we ended up with a greater percentage of sunshine today than yesterday, thanks to the late afternoon and early evening clearing.

Our transition from monsoon season into autumn is finally progressing nicely, mainly due to an increasingly brisk west-northwesterly flow in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere that has finally shoved the vast majority of lingering tropical moisture well south and east of us.  An upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest this weekend will reinforce that trend, bringing the driest batch of central Asian air we've yet to see this season.  But before we can partake of that, there could be a flare-up of showers and thundershowers around the area as that disturbance passes across north India between late Saturday night and Monday.  The models are showing very feeble shower/thunder development, but we need to be aware of the risk nonetheless.

By late Monday into Tuesday it's looking like we are fairly assured of seeing another substantial drop in humidity... taking us down to the low moisture levels that we should be enjoying by this time of year.  With sunshine, temps will remain very pleasant, though our overnight lows will be dropping a few degrees.

Explore the rest of the blog for lots more weather info for the McLeod Ganj area.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

positive momentum... (pm.06.oct.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 72.6F (22.6C)
Rainfall: none

There are lingering clumps of clouds and some patchy fog in the area at dusk, with a considerable amount of haze as well.  But we have to say that it's been a really nice day -- the best of October so far -- with less cloudiness and fog than we've seen this month, lower humidity, and not a drop of rain.  Sunshine was fully in control until around the noon hour, when clouds over the mountains tried to gain a little ground, but it never really became overcast until very late afternoon.  Humidity at my location up on Tushita Road ranged from 50 to 68%.

So we're making progress.  All indications point to a continuing retreat of the deeper tropical moisture from northwest and central India over the course of the coming several days, as a drier west-northwesterly flow sets up in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  A disturbance dropping in from the northwest on Saturday night through Sunday, and perhaps into Monday, may draw lingering moisture back northwestward into our area, so we need to be prepared for a potential temporary setback.  The risk of a couple of rounds of showers and/or thundershowers will increase again on Sunday into Monday in association with that little system.

THEN -- it's now looking like we will settle into some very pleasant early autumn conditions starting on Tuesday, which should last for at least several days.  Rain chances will be very minimal, sunshine fairly abundant, and humidity levels dropping below 40%.  Maybe soon we can finally think about enjoying some of the finest weather on offer in our part of the world...

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, climatological data and other info.

now it's official... (am.06.oct.16)>

It's official -- the withdrawal of MONSOON 2016 has been declared for remaining parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and all but the extreme eastern border of Himachal Pradesh.  October 5th is approximately 18 days LATER than normal for us to be saying goodbye to the monsoon season.

Now we get to see if the push of drier air which arrived late yesterday afternoon is going to hang around, or whether we will still have to battle significant cloud/fog development issues during the mid-day into the afternoon hours.  This morning, my humidity reading is just 51%, so that's a very positive sign.  Also, let's not forget the risk of some isolated shower/thunder activity along the mountains during the PM hours.

An even more definitively drier and autumn-looking air mass is scheduled to move in by Monday into Tuesday, which should take our humidity levels lower and lower still.

Get a look at other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, on tabs above.

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

monsoon withdrawal?... (pm.05.oct.16)>

**Update @ 8:10pm... Humidity has plummeted since around 4:30pm... now just 53% here on Tushita Road.  Wow.  Still waiting for an official monsoon withdrawal statement from the IMD to match what the map is showing this evening.

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.1F (16.7C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

Hot off the press... the updated monsoon map from the India Met Department shows the monsoon withdrawal line pushed east of us today -- to the Himachal Pradesh/Uttarakhand border.  There is no official statement yet on the IMD website, so I'll keep tabs on that this evening to make sure it's legit.

Late this evening things are looking a lot better.  A weak upper-level disturbance in an increasingly brisk west-northwesterly flow moved across Himalayan north India today, stirring up some widely scattered thundershowers during the mid-afternoon, and then delivering a batch of drier air in its wake.  Several brief, very light showers with some thunder between about 2:20 and 4:00pm suddenly gave way to partially clearing skies by 5:00pm, with all of the low clouds and fog chased away.  Humidity today averaged around 76%, and was as low as 68% late this afternoon after those brief showers.

According to this evening's models/data, a progressively drier air mass is expected to gradually move across the northwest part of India over the coming several days, which should chip away at the lingering moisture stuck here along the mountains.  Although the signs are very positive, of course it's still going to be a day-by-day strategy to see how much our average daily humidity drops, and how that affects our mid-day into afternoon cloud and fog development issues.  But at any rate, things are happening...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, MONSOON 2016, and lots of other local info can be found on tabs above.

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

the abnormality of it all... (pm.04.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: trace

Clouds and fog are still thick and heavy out there this evening as darkness descends, but we are ending the day without measurable rainfall, at least here in the local area.  Once again there was a very nice amount of sunshine to start the day, in spite of the haze, but clouds and fog literally exploded all around us between 11:00am and noon, and remained in control for the rest of the day.  There were a few sprinkles of rain from just before 4:00pm until recently, along with some rumbles of thunder to the east-northeast, also during the late afternoon.  Humidity dropped as low as 72% during the mid-morning, but then settled into the 80-85% range thereafter.

This horrendously moisture-laden air mass is way out of the ordinary for early October, and not at all enjoyable for those who have been here all throughout the monsoon season.  Enough already!  It is not unusual for the last dregs of post-monsoon tropical moisture to linger even until the middle of October, but what we've been dealing with is much more significant than that.  Humidity readings that fail to drop below 70% day after day after day by this time of year -- that is not something I remember seeing during my years here -- and local climatological data confirms that this is highly abnormal.

There remains a shimmering light further along the tunnel, in the form of a rather significant pattern shift by early next week.  The mid- and upper-level flow will strengthen, from the west-northwest, driving some significantly drier air into northwest India, and eventually, even into central parts of the country.  This gives us some hope for a more substantial drop in humidity next week, along with only the slightest risk of some mainly PM shower activity.  Follow along as we wait to see if theory translates into reality.

MONSOON 2016 info and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK are available on tabs above. 

Monday, October 3, 2016

humidity still too high... (pm.03.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: none

Well, we managed to make it through the day without a deluge... for the first time this October.  We've still had to contend with a lot of cloudiness and fog since the late morning, but at least here in the immediate McLeod area, there has been no rain that I've witnessed.  The sun was a bit more dominant during the early to mid-morning hours, which was very nice to see, but the humidity remains far too high for this time of year -- right around 85% for the daily average.

Models are showing very little if any precipitation development across Himalayan north India over the course of the next few days... but of course that doesn't mean there won't be some isolated shower/thunder development somewhere along mainly the southwest-facing mountain slopes during the afternoon hours.  There are also hints of some slightly drier air trying to work its way in from the west-northwest, but whether that translates into an actual lowering of our extremely high humidity levels (or not) remains to be seen.

Yet another bit of resurgent moisture is projected over the coming weekend, but THEN, there appears to be a much more dramatic push of relatively drier air on the way about one week from right now.  From this vantage point, it does look like a very positive shift in the overall weather pattern will occur, but of course we're going to have to check it day-by-day to see if it's for real.

I've posted a recap of this year's monsoon stats, on MONSOON 2016 (tab above), and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is back up and running as well...

Sunday, October 2, 2016

just like mid-monsoon... (pm.02.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 2.17" (5.5cm)

I have recorded very close to four inches (10.2cm) of rain at my location in the upper part of town on these first two days of October.  The normal/average amount of rain for the ENTIRE MONTH is just 2.60" (6.6cm) -- so it goes without saying that we're having a very unusual start.  But we also know that we ended the month of September more than six inches (15cm) below the norm, so if we're really concerned about average/normal statistics, we can just fudge this early October rainfall into the September books.!!

Really, it has been crazy the last two afternoons, with these massive downpours worthy of a mid-monsoon classification.  In fact, the overall weather pattern -- both at the surface and into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere -- looks much more like mid-August than early October.  Where is the drier and cooler central Asian air that normally starts dipping into Himalayan north India by this time of year?  Well, it is locked up very far to our north and west, with no indication of a move in our direction until at least the 11th or 12th of the month.

We may see a bit of a decrease in the moisture content of our airmass this week, but I won't feel comfortable ignoring the risk of afternoon shower/thunder development until we can actually see and feel some kind of significant change in the pattern.  Yes, October is supposed to be one of our finest months of the year, but so far, it stinks.

Check tabs above for more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

Saturday, October 1, 2016

october downpour... (pm.01.oct.16)>

After just finishing the month of September with a 42% below normal rainfall total, we've received on this first day of October 70% of the normal/average total for the entire month!!  All monthly rainfall norms are always available for you to check on the WETTEST MONTHS tab at the top of the page.

At least at my location in the upper part of town, today's heavy rainfall occurred between about 3:15 and 5:00pm, and I recorded 1.80" (4.6cm) -- though it was still raining a little bit when I last had a chance to check the gauge.  Will update later this evening if necessary.

I have to say it is a bit disconcerting to arrive back in McLeod Ganj after a nearly five week absence, to find that our weather conditions are no better than they were when I left at the end of August.  There is plenty of lingering, stagnant tropical moisture stuck here along the front slopes of the mountains, and as you know if you've been paying much attention over the years, it is often a painstaking and frustrating process before we can truly break free into post-monsoon conditions.  All of the model data this evening indicates that it might take until about the 10th or 11th of the month before we see a definitive autumn-like air mass that can truly chase this leftover tropical juice out of here.