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Sunday, October 2, 2016

just like mid-monsoon... (pm.02.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 2.17" (5.5cm)

I have recorded very close to four inches (10.2cm) of rain at my location in the upper part of town on these first two days of October.  The normal/average amount of rain for the ENTIRE MONTH is just 2.60" (6.6cm) -- so it goes without saying that we're having a very unusual start.  But we also know that we ended the month of September more than six inches (15cm) below the norm, so if we're really concerned about average/normal statistics, we can just fudge this early October rainfall into the September books.!!

Really, it has been crazy the last two afternoons, with these massive downpours worthy of a mid-monsoon classification.  In fact, the overall weather pattern -- both at the surface and into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere -- looks much more like mid-August than early October.  Where is the drier and cooler central Asian air that normally starts dipping into Himalayan north India by this time of year?  Well, it is locked up very far to our north and west, with no indication of a move in our direction until at least the 11th or 12th of the month.

We may see a bit of a decrease in the moisture content of our airmass this week, but I won't feel comfortable ignoring the risk of afternoon shower/thunder development until we can actually see and feel some kind of significant change in the pattern.  Yes, October is supposed to be one of our finest months of the year, but so far, it stinks.

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