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Tuesday, April 7, 2015

still falling short... (am.07.apr.15)>

We have a mostly cloudy sky early this morning -- and it's breezy and cool.  The current temperature is very close to the overnight low of 49.5F (9.7C), and there has been just a trace of rainfall since 9:30pm.  That's a bit of a surprise, considering the fact that we had a couple of periods of thunder and what I would call vicious wind gusts during the middle of the night.  The wind was absolutely howling at around 2:00am.  Still, overnight rainfall was very sparse.

It's still not a very pleasant April weather scenario we're looking at -- as the upper atmosphere has yet to reach a stage of being settled and stabilized.  We have a weak circulation parked right over northern India right now, and it will shift only slowly eastward during the next 12-18 hours or so.  Temperatures up around 15,000ft are frigid, and that's what is causing the whole atmosphere to remain unsettled and prone to lots of cloud development, while triggering scattered shower and thundershower development as well.  So... I'm afraid we have to keep the umbrellas and rain gear handy for this, the tenth day in a row.  Temperatures will struggle to make much progress today.

We've been looking forward to Wednesday/Thursday as the time when we might see some appreciable improvement, and that forecast appears to be on track.  Warmer air will surge northward -- not only at the surface, but in the mid- and upper-levels as well -- providing us with a more stable situation for two or three days.  Although we can't rule out an isolated thundershower between Wednesday and Friday, the chance of rain will be lower than it's been in more than ten days... especially on Thursday and Friday.  We should see much more comfortable temps as well.

Unfortunately, our air mass becomes unstable again over the weekend, so we could quickly be back into the thundershower-dodging mode after only a short break.  Check details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.